Sitrep 2025-04-28 16:19:45

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (April 28, 2025, 16:19 UTC)

Executive Summary

The military situation remains highly fluid and intensely contested across multiple axes. The Ukrainian General Staff continues to report a high number of combat clashes (92 by 16:00 local time), with the Pokrovsk direction remaining the most active (38 attacks). Russia claims advances and the capture of strongpoints on several key axes, including the Kupyansk direction (claimed liberation of Stepova Novoselivka and advances in Kamenka), the Pokrovsk direction (claimed expansion of control near Berezivka and the Ocheretyne junction), and the Kostiantynivka direction (claimed capture of a strongpoint northwest of Sukha Balka). Ukraine is actively defending and conducting targeted strikes, including drone attacks on Russian logistics, personnel, and drone operator positions in the Novopavlivsk and Toretsk directions.

The use of drones and artillery remains widespread, with significant Russian activity reported across the frontlines, including KAB strikes in Donetsk Oblast and heavy shelling and FPV drone attacks impacting Nikopol and surrounding communities in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, resulting in civilian casualties and infrastructure damage. An air threat alert for Zaporizhzhia Oblast due to aviation weapons highlights the continued aerial threat. Ukraine's Air Force reports successful interceptions of Russian UAVs.

Diplomatic and political maneuvering continues. Russia frames its proposed temporary unilateral ceasefire for Victory Day (May 8th-11th) as a gesture of goodwill and is exchanging information with the US regarding this truce, with Peskov stating that the blocking of dialogue has been achieved. Ukraine's counter-proposal for an immediate, unconditional ceasefire for at least 30 days and the White House's preference for a permanent ceasefire underscore the significant gap in approaches. Lavrov's reiteration of non-negotiable conditions and Russian sources' negative view of Ukraine's proposal and anticipation of Ukrainian attacks during the Russian-proposed truce highlight the unlikelihood of a meaningful, observed ceasefire. Maria Zakharova has publicly accused the "Kyiv regime" of being a terrorist cell, citing alleged Ukrainian involvement in the killing of General Moskalik, further escalating the rhetoric.

Notable incidents and developments include: a drone attack in Cherkasy Oblast with reported casualties and damage to a gas facility; Russian claims of Ukrainian Su-27 losses near the Cherkasy airfield; continued discussion and Russian commentary on the widespread power blackout in Southern and Western Europe, with the European Council head denying signs of a cyberattack and Ukraine offering assistance; and escalating tensions between India and Pakistan, with Pakistan citing conditions for potential nuclear action. Russian sources are promoting the narrative of North Korean soldier involvement in combat in the Kursk region, showcasing claimed joint combat operations near Sudzha and providing humanitarian aid and concerts near Moscow. Reports on corruption cases within Russian institutions (occupied Luhansk and against a former MoD official) persist. Ukraine is emphasizing cooperation with NATO and Poland through JATEC and training programs and is reportedly seeking Patriot air defense systems from Greece.

Major Updates:

Heavy Shelling and Drone Attacks in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: The head of the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Military Administration confirms over a dozen attacks on the Nikopol region with artillery and FPV drones, targeting Nikopol and the Myrivska, Pokrovska, and Marhanetska communities. One civilian (59-year-old man) was injured, and damage includes 3 private houses, an outbuilding, infrastructure, a gas station, a power line, and a gas pipeline.
Criminal Case for Embezzlement in Russian MoD: ASTRA reports a criminal case against Oleg Vasenin, former deputy head of the Department of Property of Special Projects of the Ministry of Defense, for embezzling over 240 million rubles by inflating costs in a state defense order in 2022-2023. Vasenin has been arrested.
Claimed Russian Advances on Pokrovsk (Berezivka) and Kupyansk (Kamenka) Axes: Russian sources "Slyvochniy kapriz" claim significant tactical gains, including expansion of control by up to 700 meters and capture of a large strongpoint near the Ocheretyne junction on the Krasnoarmiisk-Artemivsk highway (Pokrovsk direction), and advances of about 600 meters in the built-up area of Kamenka on the Dvurechnaya-Kamenka direction (Kupyansk axis), claiming to have raised the Russian flag in the central part of the village.
Russia Promotes Joint Combat Operations with North Koreans: Russian sources "Operation Z: Russian Spring Military Correspondents" and "ZONA SVO" are sharing claimed video footage of Russian and North Korean soldiers embracing after the "liberation of a settlement near Sudzha" and showing claimed joint combat training.
Russian Demining Operations in Kherson Oblast: The Russian MoD shares a video of EOD specialists demining liberated territories in Kherson region.
Germany Reaffirms Unequivocal Support for Ukraine: Operatyvnyi ZSU shares a statement attributed to a German politician, "We are not an uninvolved third party or a mediator between two opponents. We unequivocally stand on the side of Ukraine."
Russian Information Operation on Ceasefire and Ukrainian Intentions: Russian sources are framing Putin's Victory Day ceasefire as a gesture of goodwill and preemptively blaming Ukraine for anticipated drone attacks during this period, linking it to alleged Ukrainian statements about activating services for political assassinations during a ceasefire.
Reported US Pressure on Greece for Patriot Systems: Tsaplienko reports that the US is pressuring Greece to transfer its Patriot air defense systems to Ukraine.
Russian Propaganda Highlighting Military and Domestic Stability: Russian channels are promoting IT sector development and a residential housing project to convey normalcy and state capacity, while also reporting on incidents of civil unrest (Balashikha street fight).
Ukrainian Targeting of Russian Drone Operators: Shef Hayabusa shares a video claiming the destruction of a Russian "mavic drone operator position" in Toretsk.
Escalating India-Pakistan Tensions with Nuclear Rhetoric: RBC-Ukraine reports that Pakistan's Defense Minister has outlined conditions for a nuclear strike amidst the conflict with India.
Ukrainian Claims of Destroyed Shaheds: Operatyvnyi ZSU shares an image claiming the destruction of 52 "Shahed" type UAVs by a Ukrainian unit specializing in unmanned systems ("DARKNODE").
Russian Decree Extending Legal Status for Foreigners: TASS reports that Putin has extended the deadline until September 10th for foreigners to legalize their status in the Russian Federation.
SIPRI Report on Record Global Military Expenditures: Два майора highlights key findings from the SIPRI report, stating global military spending reached a new maximum of $2.7 trillion in 2024, a 9.4% increase from 2023, with significant increases by the US, China, Russia, and European nations like Germany and Poland. Ukraine's military spending is reported at 34% of its GDP in 2024, with all tax revenues going to military needs and civilian expenses covered by foreign aid.

Strategic and Tactical Overview

Ukrainian Actions and Capabilities:

Active Defense and Targeted Strikes: Ukrainian forces are engaged in intense defensive operations across the frontline, including repelling numerous Russian assaults and conducting active defensive actions in border regions (Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts, as previously reported). They are effectively using drones to target Russian logistics, personnel, and tactical assets like drone operator positions (Toretsk, Novopavlivsk).
Air Defense and Counter-UAVs: Ukraine continues to actively counter Russian aerial threats, including intercepting strike UAVs (claimed destruction of 52 Shaheds by a specialized unit). Air raid alerts indicate ongoing vigilance against missile and aviation threats. Ukraine is also seeking to enhance its air defense capabilities through international assistance (reported pressure on Greece for Patriot systems).
Force Generation and Training: Ongoing training programs, including those with international partners (NATO/Poland), continue to focus on enhancing capabilities and interoperability.
Logistical Support and International Aid: While volunteer fundraising efforts supplement official supplies, Ukraine remains reliant on international military aid, including artillery ammunition (Czech initiative) and advanced air defense systems (reported pressure on Greece for Patriots).
Information Operations and Diplomacy: Ukraine is actively engaged in information operations to highlight Russian losses, civilian casualties (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast), and its own military successes (claimed destruction of Shaheds, targeting of drone operators). Diplomatically, Ukraine continues to articulate its conditions for a ceasefire and its need for security guarantees, while also offering assistance in areas like the European blackout to strengthen international ties.
Naval and Riverine Defense: Continued efforts to strengthen defenses along waterways are indicated by previous reports of fundraising for river mines.

Russian Actions and Claims:

Persistent Offensive Operations and Claimed Gains: Russia continues high-intensity ground assaults on key axes, particularly Pokrovsk, Toretsk, and Novopavlivsk. They are claiming localized territorial gains, including the liberation of Stepova Novoselivka, advances in Kamenka, and capture of a large strongpoint near Berezivka on the Pokrovsk axis, as well as a strongpoint near Sukha Balka on the Kostiantynivka axis. Russian sources are showcasing claimed destruction of Ukrainian and NATO equipment.
Large-Scale Drone and Air Attacks: Russia continues to employ widespread drone attacks (including Shaheds) and utilize guided aerial bombs (KABs) and artillery extensively, resulting in civilian casualties and infrastructure damage, particularly in areas like Nikopol. They are also showcasing their use of FPV drones.
Information Operations and Political Signaling: Russia is actively using information operations to control narratives, portraying military successes, promoting the involvement of foreign fighters (North Koreans in claimed joint operations), and framing diplomatic initiatives like the Victory Day ceasefire as gestures of goodwill while preemptively blaming Ukraine for potential violations. Russia is also highlighting internal security efforts, promoting domestic initiatives to convey normalcy, and using economic data (SIPRI report) to emphasize its economic strength and capacity. Claims of Ukrainian intent to invade Bryansk Oblast (as previously reported) also contribute to their information campaign. Maria Zakharova's statement branding the "Kyiv regime" as a terrorist cell marks a significant escalation in official rhetoric. Russian military bloggers continue to discuss foreign policy decisions and promote fundraising for their units.
Force Generation and Adaptation: Russian efforts to recruit and integrate foreign fighters (North Koreans) and their use of FPV drones and potentially motorcycles (as previously reported) suggest ongoing adaptation and resourcefulness in force generation and tactics.
Border Operations: Russia continues to conduct operations in border regions (Kursk Oblast), including claimed joint combat operations with North Korean personnel and demining efforts in occupied territories (Kherson Oblast).
Internal Security and Corruption: Reported corruption cases within Russian institutions highlight potential internal challenges.
Diplomatic Engagement: Russia continues diplomatic efforts, including exchanging information with the US regarding the Victory Day truce and engaging with international organizations and countries.

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

Entire Frontline: Sustained high intensity with 92 combat clashes reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.
Pokrovsk Axis: Most active with 38 reported Russian attacks. Russian sources claim advances and capture of a large strongpoint near Berezivka on the Krasnoarmiisk-Artemivsk highway near the Ocheretyne junction.
Toretsk and Novopavlivsk Directions: Continued significant Russian offensive activity. Ukraine is targeting Russian drone operator positions in Toretsk and claiming destruction of Russian logistics and personnel on the Novopavlivsk direction.
Kupyansk Direction: Russian sources claim the liberation of Stepova Novoselivka and advances of about 600 meters in the built-up area of Kamenka.
Kostiantynivka Direction: Russian sources report fighting around Tarasivka and Sukha Balka, claiming to have taken a strongpoint northwest of Sukha Balka.
Kursk Oblast: Ongoing fighting and demining efforts. Confirmed involvement and claimed joint combat operations with North Korean personnel near Sudzha.
Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts: Primary targets of large-scale overnight drone attacks (as previously reported).
Cherkasy Oblast: Drone attack resulting in casualties and damage to a gas facility (as previously reported). Russian sources claim Ukrainian aircraft losses near the Cherkasy airfield.
Donetsk Oblast: Subject to KAB strikes and fighting, particularly on the Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka axes.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Nikopol area): Subject to heavy shelling and FPV drone attacks, resulting in civilian casualties (injured man) and damage to private homes, infrastructure, a gas station, power lines, and a gas pipeline.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Air threat alerts for potential use of aviation weapons.
Kherson Oblast: Russian demining operations in liberated territories. Incident involving a burnt-out vehicle and injured firefighters in Kakhovka from a drone attack (as previously reported).
Southern and Western Europe: Continued impact and investigation of the widespread power blackout.
India-Pakistan Border: Escalating tensions with Pakistan citing conditions for potential nuclear action.
Greece: Reported US pressure to transfer Patriot systems to Ukraine.
Russia (Moscow, Balashikha): Domestic developments including reports of civil unrest (Balashikha street fight) and promotion of domestic projects. Reported criminal cases against former MoD officials for embezzlement.
Russian Occupied Territories (Luhansk): Reports of internal corruption.

Potential Future Developments

The extent to which the temporary ceasefires are observed and any resulting shifts in operational tempo or opportunities for humanitarian action. Increased Russian information operations preemptively blaming Ukraine for violations are likely.
Continued diplomatic exchanges and public statements regarding peace talks, with the significant gap in stated preconditions likely persisting. The nature and impact of information exchange between Russia and the US regarding the truce will be a key area to monitor.
Independent verification of claimed territorial changes and claimed destructions.
Further details and official findings regarding the cause of the European power blackout and any potential, however unlikely, links to the conflict or implications for energy security.
The trajectory of tensions between India and Pakistan and any potential wider geopolitical consequences.
Increased efforts by both sides to adapt tactics and technologies, particularly regarding drone warfare and counter-drone measures. The reported use of a new "Banderol" loitering munition by Russia (as previously reported) and Ukrainian targeting of drone operators indicate this ongoing adaptation.
The impact of international efforts to bolster Ukraine's air defense capabilities, particularly the reported pressure on Greece to provide Patriot systems.
Continued focus on force generation and training by Ukraine and the operational impact of integrating new units and international training.
Ongoing information operations by both sides, including efforts to control online narratives, promote military successes, and address sensitive issues like prisoner of war treatment. Maria Zakharova's escalated rhetoric will likely be amplified.
The sustainability of logistical support, both official and through volunteer/military blogger fundraising efforts.
Further developments in investigations related to internal security incidents or misconduct within Russian forces or occupied territories, such as the embezzlement case against the former MoD official.
Increased military activity or incidents in border regions, particularly around Kursk, Sumy, and on the Kupyansk axis, especially given the confirmed involvement and claimed joint operations with North Korean forces.
Any confirmed incidents or attempted incidents around the May 9th Victory Day, particularly if they align with the scenarios speculated by Russian sources.
Reactions or statements from Greece regarding the reported pressure to transfer Patriot systems.
Observable changes in the intensity or targeting of shelling and drone attacks on civilian areas and infrastructure, particularly in hard-hit areas like Nikopol.
The impact of the SIPRI report on global perceptions of military spending and the capacity of involved nations.

Potential Indicators

Any confirmed violations or adherence to the proposed temporary ceasefires.
Public statements from international actors beyond the White House and Germany regarding the ceasefire proposals and diplomatic efforts.
Independent confirmation or refutation of claimed territorial changes (e.g., around Stepova Novoselivka, Kamenka, Berezivka, Sukha Balka) or claimed destructions (e.g., Izium depot, Toretsk drone positions, damaged infrastructure in Nikopol).
Official findings or conclusive reports on the cause of the European power blackout.
Observable changes in military posture or rhetoric between India and Pakistan, particularly concerning the potential for nuclear action.
Evidence of new tactical adaptations by either side, including changes in drone usage, counter-drone tactics, or mobility (e.g., continued use of motorcycles).
Confirmation of the transfer of Patriot systems from Greece to Ukraine.
Changes in the volume or success of fundraising efforts for military units.
Further reports or confirmed details regarding internal security incidents or misconduct within Russian forces or in occupied territories.
Increased military activity or incidents in border regions, particularly involving claimed joint operations with foreign forces.
Any confirmed incidents or attempted incidents around the May 9th Victory Day.
Statements or actions by Greece regarding the reported US pressure.
Observable changes in the intensity or targeting of shelling and drone attacks on civilian areas.
Further developments in the criminal case against the former MoD official.
Reactions from other nations to Maria Zakharova's statement regarding the "Kyiv regime" as a terrorist cell.

Updated Situation: The conflict is characterized by persistent, intense Russian ground assaults on multiple axes, particularly Pokrovsk, where Russia claims significant advances. Russia is also claiming localized gains on the Kupyansk and Kostiantynivka directions. Ukraine is actively defending, repelling numerous attacks, and conducting targeted drone strikes against Russian assets. Drone and artillery attacks remain widespread, causing civilian casualties and infrastructure damage, notably in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Diplomatic efforts continue around potential ceasefires, but a significant gap remains in the parties' preconditions, and rhetoric, particularly from Russia, is escalating. Russia is promoting narratives of military success and showcasing claimed joint operations with North Korean forces. International efforts to bolster Ukraine's air defense are ongoing, with reported pressure on Greece for Patriot systems. Reports on internal Russian issues (corruption) and external geopolitical tensions (India-Pakistan) also feature in the information landscape. The SIPRI report highlights the significant global increase in military spending, including by Russia and Ukraine, reflecting the intense nature of the conflict.

Situation Report