Sitrep 2025-04-28 14:19:52

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (April 28, 2025, 14:19 UTC)

Executive Summary

The military situation remains dynamic, characterized by intense fighting on multiple axes, particularly in the Donetsk and border regions. The Ukrainian General Staff reports 92 combat clashes since the start of the day as of 16:00 local time, indicating continued high levels of activity. Russian forces continue offensive actions, with significant reported activity on the Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk, and Kursk directions. Ukraine reports repelling numerous attacks and highlights ongoing defensive efforts and counter-UAV activities.

The diplomatic landscape continues to be shaped by discussions around potential ceasefires. While Vladimir Putin declared a temporary, unilateral ceasefire from May 8th to May 11th for Victory Day, this has been met with skepticism and counter-proposals from Ukraine. Head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Andriy Sybiha, questioned the delay and proposed an immediate, unconditional ceasefire for at least 30 days. This divergence is a key point of tension and is being leveraged by both sides in information operations. Lavrov's statement outlining Russia's conditions for peace, including international recognition of its territorial claims and Ukraine's neutral status, underscores the significant gap in negotiating positions.

Significant events include continued drone activity and strikes across various regions, including a reported drone attack with casualties in Cherkasy Oblast. Russian sources claim success in targeting Ukrainian military assets with drones and artillery. Ukraine also reports effective drone use, including against Russian equipment and personnel in border regions. The widespread power blackout in Southern and Western Europe continues to be reported, with investigations into the cause ongoing and no immediate link to the conflict confirmed, although Ukraine has offered assistance based on its experience with Russian attacks on its energy infrastructure.

Geopolitical tensions in other regions, particularly the ongoing tensions between India and Pakistan, are noted, with the Pakistani Defense Minister describing an "inevitable" military invasion while hoping to avoid nuclear conflict. Discussions surrounding potential US aid to Ukraine and the future of NATO are also highlighted by various sources.

Internal Russian developments include the ongoing investigation into the murder of a Major General and efforts to control the information space through "foreign agent" designations and the targeting of "droppers" in financial schemes. Russian military bloggers continue to provide commentary and engage in fundraising efforts for specific units.

New Updates (within the last ~30 minutes):

Ukrainian General Staff reports 92 combat clashes by 16:00 on April 28th, highlighting the intensity of fighting. They also detail ongoing Russian shelling and airstrikes on border settlements in Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts, as well as specific engagements on the Kharkiv, Kupyansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivsk, Huliaipole, Orikhiv, Prydniprovskyi, and Kursk directions. The Pokrovsk direction remains the most active with 38 Russian attacks reported. They also report Russian aviation strikes and the use of guided aerial bombs (KABs) and MLRS in border areas.
Russian sources (Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition and MoD Russia) report on alleged Ukrainian Su-27 losses near the Cherkasy airfield, claiming it was likely destroyed while attempting to counter drones targeting the airfield. They also suggest the Cherkasy airfield is a base for Ukrainian helicopters operating on the Zaporizhzhia direction and a site for UAV assembly and storage. The Russian MoD shares archive footage of the "Rubikon Centre" operating in Kursk border areas, claiming daily elimination of Ukrainian materiel and manpower by UAV teams.
Russian sources (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺) claim Russian forces (272nd and 352nd regiments) have liberated Stepova Novoselivka on the Kupyansk direction and advanced north towards Pischanoye, claiming significant gains in depth and flank. This is framed as a result of overcoming Ukrainian resistance despite heavy artillery and drone use.
Ukrainian Air Force reports KABs being launched towards Donetsk Oblast.
The Ukrainian General Staff highlights cooperation with NATO and Poland through the Joint Analysis, Training and Education Center (JATEC) and the "Captains' Training" course, emphasizing the integration of Ukrainian combat experience into NATO standards and the importance of scaling up such initiatives for interoperability and defense capabilities.
Colonelcassad posts a video allegedly showing the "synchronous detonation of Putin's one-timers on mines," likely a sarcastic reference to Russian personnel or equipment being destroyed by mines.
Reports on the widespread power blackout in Southern and Western Europe continue, with updates on the duration of restoration efforts and a Portuguese operator citing a "rare atmospheric phenomenon" in Spain as the cause.
Russian sources (Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition) celebrate the first anniversary of their channel, dedicated to the "Sever" grouping of forces, highlighting their growth and collaborations with other pro-Russian channels and individuals, including war correspondents and government entities (Kursk Oblast Government). They also mention launching an English channel and conducting non-public work with Ukrainians.
Lavrov reiterates Russia's conditions for a peace agreement with Ukraine, stating that international recognition of its territorial claims (including Crimea and four occupied regions), Ukraine's neutral and non-aligned status, "demilitarization and denazification," lifting of sanctions and lawsuits, return of frozen assets, and "reliable security guarantees" for Moscow from NATO, the EU, and their allies are "imperative."
The Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports on a championship of Ukrainian hand-to-hand combat "Spas" in Zaporizhzhia, highlighting the importance of preserving national traditions and culture and relating it to readiness to defend independence.
DeepState commemorates the creation of the 14th Grenadier Division "Halychyna" on April 28, 1943, framing it as a fight against "red infection" (Soviet forces) and highlighting the continuation of their struggle in the Ukrainian Insurgent Army. This is a historical reference tied to a controversial unit.
STERNENKO reports on the Cherkasy drone attack, noting 6 casualties and damage to a gas facility, and criticizing the unilateral Ukrainian adherence to an "energy truce."
TASS reports a fatal boating accident in Dagestan.
Colonelcassad posts a fundraising appeal for Russian assault troops, scouts, and tank operators of the "Vostok" grouping of forces on the Southern Donetsk direction, detailing the provision of vehicles, body armor, Starlink, radios, EW devices, drones (Mavic 3T/Pro, fiber-optic drones), and motorcycles through donations. This underscores ongoing logistical needs and reliance on public support.
АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА reports on the creation of a new Ukrainian unit, the 29th Separate Tank Battalion, noting that Ukraine will now have five tank units (three brigades and two separate battalions) and linking the formation to the transition to a corps system. They suggest the focus on battalion-sized units is due to a lack of armor and the need for greater maneuverability.

Strategic and Tactical Overview

Ukrainian Actions and Capabilities:

Defense and Counter-Offensive: Ukraine continues defensive operations against intense Russian assaults across multiple directions, reporting a high number of combat clashes daily. They are actively defending border regions and employing counter-UAV tactics.
Air Defense and Counter-UAVs: Air raid alerts and reports of drone attacks and casualties in Cherkasy demonstrate ongoing threats and defensive responses. Ukraine is effectively using its own drones for reconnaissance, targeting (Russian Grad, vehicles in Kursk region, alleged Russian Radar in Kursk, Russian personnel in Kherson region), and information operations (removing Russian flag in Kharkiv). The reported destruction of a Russian UAV control point by MiG-29s indicates continued air force engagement. The General Staff reports Russian aviation strikes and KAB use.
Intelligence and Reconnaissance: Ukrainian reconnaissance units are actively operating and utilizing specialized equipment like thermal monoculars. The Ukrainian General Staff reports on the importance of training and integrating combat experience into military education through cooperation with NATO.
Information Operations and Narrative Control: Ukraine is actively countering Russian narratives by highlighting Russian losses, civilian casualties from Russian strikes, and articulating their terms for a ceasefire. They are also showcasing the effectiveness of their military units and publicizing fundraising efforts. Highlighting alleged Ukrainian strikes in Russian border regions and removing Russian symbols in occupied territories are part of this. Ukraine has offered assistance to European countries affected by the power blackout, leveraging its experience with Russian attacks.
Diplomatic Engagement: Ukraine remains engaged in diplomatic efforts, responding to ceasefire proposals, proposing alternative terms (30-day ceasefire), and pursuing agreements with international partners (potential US agreement on subsoil resources). They are also raising concerns about Russian actions on the international stage. The emphasis on cooperation with NATO through training programs underscores their commitment to Euro-Atlantic integration.
Force Generation and Training: The reported creation of the 29th Separate Tank Battalion signifies continued efforts to build and restructure forces. Training efforts continue, as highlighted by the "Captains' Training" course and cooperation with NATO. The championship of Ukrainian hand-to-hand combat in Zaporizhzhia is framed as promoting national identity and readiness to defend the country.
Logistical Support: Ukraine relies on a combination of official and volunteer support for logistical needs, with military bloggers highlighting successful fundraising for specific equipment.
Personnel Issues: Efforts continue to address the complex issues of prisoners of war, including advocating for exchanges and addressing the welfare of captured personnel. Civilian casualties from strikes remain a significant concern.

Russian Actions and Claims:

Offensive Operations: Russia maintains offensive pressure on multiple axes, including the Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk, and Kursk directions, claiming tactical gains and the liberation of settlements (Stepova Novoselivka on the Kupyansk direction). They continue to employ ground assaults, artillery (Grad, Msta-B, Uragan), airstrikes (KABs), and drones (Shaheds/Geraniums, FPVs).
Air and Drone Warfare: Russia continues to utilize drones for strikes across Ukraine and for targeting Ukrainian equipment and personnel with FPVs. They claim success in countering Ukrainian heavy drones and utilizing specialized drones like fiber-optic guided loitering munitions against EW stations. They also claim to have destroyed Ukrainian aircraft (Su-27 near Cherkasy). The Russian MoD highlights the effectiveness of their UAV teams in border regions.
Information Operations and Political Signaling: Putin's unilateral ceasefire announcement is a major political signal, framed as humanitarian and a gesture of goodwill, while simultaneously being used to portray Ukraine as unwilling to negotiate. Lavrov's clear articulation of Russia's stringent conditions for peace reinforces their maximalist demands. Russian sources are actively promoting claimed military successes (liberation of Stepova Novoselivka, destruction of Ukrainian equipment), alleged Ukrainian losses (Su-27), and Ukrainian "terrorism" within Russia (Moskalik case, alleged comments by Ukrainian MP). They are also pushing narratives about a decline in foreign mercenaries fighting for Ukraine and using the Western European blackout and India-Pakistan tensions for their own commentary and framing. Highlighting the first anniversary of channels dedicated to specific Russian military groupings (Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition for "Sever") serves to bolster support and promote a positive image of their forces. Showcasing Russian military actions through video (FPV strikes, artillery use, combat footage in Kurakhovo) is a key part of this.
Personnel and Logistics: Russian forces are sustaining losses, particularly on the Eastern Direction. Military blogger fundraising efforts indicate ongoing logistical needs and reliance on non-state support for specific equipment. Internal issues, such as the reported embezzlement cases and the case of extorting a conscript, point to potential challenges within the Russian system. The death of Major General Moskalik and the ongoing investigation remain significant internal security events.
Adaptation and Countermeasures: Russian forces are adapting to Ukrainian tactics, utilizing anti-drone cloaks and focusing on countering Ukrainian heavy drones. They are also adapting their drone control systems (fiber optic FPV control) and potentially integrating motorcycles into offensive operations.
Border Operations: Russia continues to conduct operations in border regions, both defensively (claiming to repel Ukrainian attacks) and offensively (claiming to eliminate Ukrainian personnel and assets, like the alleged radar strike and operations near Belovody and Yunakovka).

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

Entire Frontline: High number of combat clashes reported by the Ukrainian General Staff (92 by 16:00 on April 28th).
Eastern Direction (Khortytsia Group of Forces Area): High intensity of fighting with significant reported Russian losses this past week.
Pokrovsk Axis: Remains the most active area with a high number of Russian attacks (38 reported by Ukrainian General Staff by 16:00 on April 28th).
Kursk Oblast: Contested border region with ongoing fighting and shelling. DeepState reports Ukrainian presence fighting against Russian and North Korean forces. Russian sources claim targeting Ukrainian strongholds and reporting advances in Loknya (Sudzha area). Ukrainian sources report potential strikes in Sloboda Bila and showcasing drone effectiveness against Russian equipment (alleged Radar strike). The Russian MoD highlights UAV operations in this area.
Sumy Oblast: Ongoing shelling and aviation strikes on border settlements. Russian sources note Ukrainian concentration of forces and drone operators in Yunakovka, which Russian forces are actively targeting.
Kharkiv Oblast: Ongoing threat of aviation weapon use and shelling of border settlements. Russian sources claim liberation of Kamenka and discuss the Dvurechensky bridgehead. Ukrainian drone operators are active, including symbolic actions in occupied areas.
Kupyansk Axis: Active combat continues, with Russian sources claiming the liberation of Stepova Novoselivka and advances towards Pischanoye. Ukrainian General Staff reports ongoing combat clashes.
Toretsk Axis: Continued Russian offensive attempts and claims of reaching Dyliivka. Ukrainian General Staff reports ongoing combat clashes.
Siversk Direction: Russian sources claim reaching the eastern outskirts of Hryhorivka. Ukrainian General Staff reports Russian offensive actions.
Southern Donetsk Direction: Russian sources (Воин DV, Colonelcassad fundraising appeal) indicate ongoing fighting and fundraising efforts for units operating in this area. Russian sources previously claimed advances towards the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border and tactical gains near Bohaytyr and Otradne.
Orikhiv Axis: Ukrainian General Staff reports repelling Russian attacks. Russian sources previously reported significant increase in Ukrainian FPV drone activity.
Novopavlivsk Axis: Ukrainian General Staff reports repelling numerous Russian attacks. Russian sources previously noted force accumulation in this area.
Huliaipole Axis: Ukrainian General Staff reports Russian aviation strikes.
Prydniprovskyi Axis: Ukrainian General Staff reports Russian attempts to advance.
Cherkasy Oblast: Recent drone attack with reported casualties and damage to a gas facility. Russian sources claim Ukrainian aircraft losses near the airfield.
Donetsk Oblast: Ukrainian Air Force reports KABs being launched towards the oblast. Russian sources (Сливочный каприз) share footage of claimed Russian infantry assaults near Kurakhovo.
Western Europe (Spain, Portugal, Andorra, France, Belgium): Affected by a widespread power blackout, with investigations ongoing. Ukraine has offered assistance.
India-Pakistan Border: Reports of escalating tensions and military build-up.

Potential Future Developments

The operational impact of Putin's unilateral ceasefire from May 8th to 11th and the extent to which either side adheres to it, given Ukraine's counter-proposal for a longer, immediate ceasefire.
Continued diplomatic exchanges and public statements regarding potential peace talks and ceasefire terms, including reactions to Lavrov's stated conditions.
The signing and implications of the reported framework agreement between Ukraine and the US on subsoil resources.
Any confirmed cause and implications of the Western European power blackout, and the extent to which Ukraine's offer of assistance is utilized.
The trajectory of tensions between India and Pakistan and any potential broader geopolitical impacts.
Further evidence or confirmation of alleged Chinese "instructors" near the front lines and their role in supporting Russian forces.
Continued adaptation by both sides in drone warfare, including the development and deployment of new systems and countermeasures.
The impact of reported high Russian losses on the Eastern Direction and the high number of daily combat clashes on the sustainability of offensive operations.
Further information operations and counter-narratives surrounding key events like the alleged Moskalik murder, ceasefire proposals, and claimed military successes/failures.
The extent to which fundraising efforts by military bloggers can address logistical needs and sustain operational capabilities.
Continued efforts to address the issue of prisoners of war and potential breakthroughs in exchanges.
Further reports or investigations into misconduct or embezzlement within Russian forces.
Independent confirmation of territorial changes around Stepova Novoselivka, on the Southern Donetsk direction, or around Kurakhovo and Dyliivka.
Continued Ukrainian operations in Russian border regions and any Russian responses, including efforts to establish a buffer zone.
The operational deployment and effectiveness of newly formed Ukrainian units like the 29th Separate Tank Battalion.
The impact of Ukraine's integration of combat experience into military education programs and cooperation with NATO on its overall defense capabilities and interoperability.

Potential Indicators

Observable changes in the intensity or location of hostilities during the announced ceasefire period (May 8-11).
Official statements or actions by either side regarding violations of the ceasefire or adherence to it.
Public statements from international actors regarding the ceasefire and diplomatic efforts, including reactions to Lavrov's conditions.
Signing or details of the reported Ukraine-US agreement on subsoil resources.
Confirmed cause or further information regarding the Western European power blackout and the response to Ukraine's offer of assistance.
Any escalation or de-escalation of military activity on the India-Pakistan border.
Independent confirmation of Chinese personnel near the front lines or their involvement in training/operations.
Evidence of new or adapted drone systems or countermeasures being employed by either side, or confirmed Ukrainian aircraft losses due to drone activity.
Significant shifts in the narratives promoted by Russian and Ukrainian information operations regarding the ceasefire, alleged incidents, or military successes/losses.
Changes in the volume or success of fundraising efforts by military bloggers.
Breakthroughs or setbacks in prisoner of war exchanges.
Further reports or investigations into misconduct or embezzlement within Russian forces, or developments in the Moskalik murder investigation.
Independent confirmation of territorial changes around Stepova Novoselivka (Kupyansk direction), on the Southern Donetsk direction, around Kurakhovo, or near Dyliivka (Toretsk direction).
Increased or decreased Ukrainian operational activity in Russian border regions (Kursk, Sumy, Belgorod).
Information regarding the deployment and operational activities of the 29th Separate Tank Battalion.
Further details or outcomes related to the "Captains' Training" course and JATEC cooperation.

Operational Workflow: (Continued based on new information)

Data from the new messages will be integrated into the existing analysis workflow. This includes:

Data Collection and Preprocessing: Ukrainian General Staff reporting on combat clashes, shelling, and airstrikes will be added to frontline dynamics, civilian impact, and enemy activity datasets. Russian sources' claims of Ukrainian aircraft losses and the role of the Cherkasy airfield will be added to air activity and target analysis. Russian claims of liberating Stepova Novoselivka and advances on the Kupyansk direction will be added to territorial control and frontline dynamics. Ukrainian Air Force reports on KABs will be added to air activity. The General Staff report on JATEC and the "Captains' Training" course will be added to international cooperation, training, and capabilities data. Colonelcassad's video and commentary on mine detonations will be added to combat activity and equipment losses (claimed Russian). Updates on the European blackout will be added to regional context and potential cybersecurity issues. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition's anniversary post and mentioned collaborations will be added to information environment and network analysis of pro-Russian sources. Lavrov's statement on peace conditions will be added to diplomatic and political messaging. The Zaporizhzhia OVA report on the "Spas" championship will be noted under internal Ukrainian developments and information operations (promoting national identity). DeepState's historical commemoration will be noted under information environment and historical narratives. STERNENKO's report on Cherkasy casualties and damage will be added to civilian impact and drone activity. TASS report on the Dagestan boating accident will be noted as non-military relevant. Colonelcassad's fundraising appeal will be added to logistical support, equipment needs (Russian), and unit locations (Southern Donetsk direction, Vostok group, 5th Separate Guards Tank Brigade). АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА's report on the 29th Separate Tank Battalion will be added to force generation, capabilities, and military structure.
Analysis and Modeling: The high number of daily combat clashes reported by the Ukrainian General Staff will be analyzed for trends in overall conflict intensity and areas of concentration. Russian claims of territorial gains (Stepova Novoselivka) and equipment losses (Su-27) will be cross-referenced with other sources for verification and incorporated into territorial control and loss assessments. The details of Russian strikes on border regions will be analyzed for patterns in targeting and intent. The report on JATEC and the "Captains' Training" course will be analyzed for its implications on Ukrainian military professionalism and interoperability with NATO. Colonelcassad's video will be analyzed for visual evidence of mine warfare effectiveness. Lavrov's statement on peace conditions will be analyzed for its implications for future negotiations and as a reflection of Russian strategic goals. The report on the 29th Separate Tank Battalion will be analyzed for its potential impact on Ukrainian offensive and defensive capabilities and its role in the new corps structure. The continued reporting on the European blackout will be monitored for any potential links to the conflict.
Reporting and Visualization: Updated reports will highlight the most active frontline areas, significant reported territorial changes (claimed by either side), key developments in drone warfare and air activity, notable diplomatic exchanges and stated conditions for peace, and efforts related to force generation and training. Visualizations will be updated to reflect reported combat zones, claimed changes in control (with appropriate caveats), and locations of significant strikes.
Feedback Loop: The updated analysis will be disseminated, and feedback will be sought from commanders regarding the accuracy of situational assessments, the interpretation of enemy intentions, and the potential impact of new developments on ongoing and planned operations.

This iterative workflow ensures that the analysis remains current, integrates new information from diverse sources, and provides valuable insights to support informed decision-making by human commanders while adhering to ethical standards and prioritizing the minimization of civilian harm.

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