Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (April 27, 2025, 16:15 UTC)
Executive Summary
The battlefield remains dynamic with both Russian and Ukrainian forces reporting intense engagements and claiming successes. Russia continues offensive actions across multiple axes, particularly focusing on Donbas and border regions. Ukraine emphasizes successful defensive operations, effective use of drone technology, and continued international support efforts. The information environment is heavily contested, with competing narratives on territorial control and casualty figures. Diplomatic discussions continue, though their immediate impact on the ground remains to be seen. Logistical support, particularly for Ukraine's drone and artillery capabilities, is highlighted as a key factor. The humanitarian situation remains a significant concern with reported civilian casualties and ongoing reconstruction efforts.
Strategic and Tactical Overview
Russian Actions and Claims:
Border Regions (Belgorod/Sumy/Kharkiv): Russian Ministry of Defence claims engaging Ukrainian forces near Zapseleye, Yunakovka, Proletarskoye, Novodmitrovka, and Sadki (Sumy Oblast), inflicting up to 75 personnel losses and equipment damage. They also report engaging Ukrainian units near Senkovo, Proletarskoye, Vyssheye Solenoye, Novy Mir, Kupyansk, Kupyansk-Uzlovoy (Kharkiv Oblast), and Kirovsk (Donetsk People's Republic), inflicting up to 235 personnel losses and equipment damage. Russian sources (Rybar and Two Majors) reiterate concerns about Ukraine's attempts to mass forces for a breakthrough in the Bryansk and Belgorod border areas, emphasizing the role of Russian "fire brigades" in stopping previous attempts and expelling Ukrainian forces from Demdovka and Popovka (Belgorod). Russian sources claim the capture of Ukrainian prisoners from the 80th Brigade in Gornal, Kursk Oblast on April 26th. They also claim destroying a Ukrainian pontoon bridge on the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction using UAVs. The Russian MoD claims destroying three "Baba Yaga" heavy UAVs of the AFU in the Kharkiv region. Drone pilots of the 1st Tank Army (Zapad Group of Forces) claim to have destroyed a US-made M777 howitzer in the Kharkiv region using a drone. Drone service support units of the Zapad Group of Forces are reportedly using FPV drones to deliver supplies to forward positions, including over five tonnes of supplies delivered by air by servicemen of the Lublin Tank Regiment.
Pokrovsk Direction: Russian military bloggers (WarGonzo, OpZ) are promoting video compilations claiming "🅾️tvazhnye" (Center Group of Forces) are mass burning NATO equipment, infantry, and artillery on this direction, highlighting claimed destruction of Leopard tanks, NATO AFVs, firing points, infantry, positions, and vehicles. The Ukrainian General Staff (GSh) reports 22 Russian attacks, with six ongoing, in the areas of Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Kotlyne, Udachne, Novosergiyivka, Novooleksandrivka, Novopavlivka, Bohdanivka, Andriyivka, Bahatyr, and towards Oleksiyivka. Russian KABs struck Kostiantynivka and Zirka.
Kramatorsk Direction: The Ukrainian GSh reports Ukrainian forces repelled nine Russian attempts to advance near Chasiv Yar, Andriyivka, Kurdyumivka, and in the directions of Mayske, Stupochky, Bila Hora, with four attacks still ongoing.
Toretsk Direction: The Ukrainian GSh reports two Russian attacks on positions near Ozaryanivka and Toretsk. DeepState previously assessed a critical situation with Russian advances southwest of Toretsk.
Lyman Direction: The Ukrainian GSh reports 13 Russian attacks in the areas of Nadiya, Nove, Ridkodub, Kolodiazi, Yampilivka.
Siversk Direction: The Ukrainian GSh reports two ongoing Russian offensive actions near Bilohorivka and Verkhnokamyanske.
Novopavlivsk Direction: The Ukrainian GSh reports Ukrainian defenders repelled four Russian attacks, with two ongoing, in the areas of Kostiantynopil, Pryvilne, and towards Otradne. Russian unguided aerial missiles struck Novopil.
Orikhiv Direction: The Ukrainian GSh reports Russian guided aerial bomb strikes on Orikhiv, Mala Tokmachka, and Prymorske.
Dnipro River Direction: The Ukrainian GSh reports Ukrainian defenders stopped one Russian attack. Russian aviation struck Kherson city.
Kupiansk Direction: The Ukrainian GSh reports the enemy attempted to advance twice near Zahryzove and Nova Kruhliakivka.
Kherson Oblast: The Russian MoD claims a Giatsint-B towed gun of an airborne artillery unit (Dnepr Group of Forces) destroyed temporary deployment areas of the AFU in Kherson region.
Training: The Russian MoD released video claiming UAV teams of the 90th Tank Division (Tsentr Group of Forces) are training drone piloting at a rear area training ground with a specialized obstacle course simulating combat conditions.
Ukrainian Actions and Claims:
Drone Operations and Air Defense: The Ukrainian Air Force reports shooting down 57 out of 149 enemy UAVs and 67 "drone-imitators" on the night of April 27th. The enemy UAVs were launched from Kursk, Bryansk, Orel, and Primorsko-Akhtarsk in Russia. Successful interceptions were confirmed in the east, north, south, and center of Ukraine, though attacks impacted Zhytomyr, Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa, Donetsk, Sumy, and Cherkasy Oblasts. A commander of a NASAMS air defense system division, Hero of Ukraine Kyrylo Peretiatko, is featured in a video demonstrating the system and recounting shooting down 11 Russian cruise missiles in a single engagement. Border guards in the Kharkiv region (Gart brigade) report that FPV drone operators on the Vovchansk direction have both "birds" and ammunition for various missions, noting that those who fire on FPV drones immediately become priority targets. They highlight the use of thermal cameras on night drones and the need to approach targets closely for identification.
Ground Operations: The Ukrainian GSh reports a total of 69 combat engagements along the entire front line since the beginning of the day (as of 16:00 UTC). Ukrainian forces are repelling Russian attacks on the Kharkiv, Kupiansk, Lyman, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivsk, Huliaipole, Orikhiv, and Prydniprovskyi directions. The 45th Separate Artillery Brigade is featured in a video showcasing their 2S22 "Bohdana" self-propelled artillery system in action on the Eastern direction, noting the reported production rate of 36 units per month.
Training and Preparation: Ukrainian sources are highlighting ongoing combat training for units, including the 104th Separate Brigade of the Territorial Defense Forces (TrO ZSU), featuring images and videos of soldiers in trenches, operating equipment, and participating in briefings. This indicates a focus on maintaining readiness and tactical proficiency. A NATO-supported project for psychological rehabilitation and combat readiness restoration for Ukrainian defenders has completed its second phase, providing training and psychological support to over 2100 servicemen.
Logistical Support: The Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reported that 26 units of the Defense Forces on the Zaporizhzhia front received over 72 million UAH worth of necessary equipment this week, including 1000 FPV, DJI, and Autel drones, over 1000 pieces of additional drone equipment, over 300 batteries, over 50 power and communication devices, over 150,000 building materials, over 18,800 remote mining devices, unmanned aerial systems, and vehicles. Images accompanying this report show large quantities of various drones, Starlink terminals, power stations, and generators being delivered.
Civilian Impact and Reconstruction: The Donetsk Oblast Prosecutor's Office reports that three people were killed and four injured as a result of Russian shelling in Kostiantynivka, Donetsk Oblast. The Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration provides an update on the construction of "underground schools" in Zaporizhzhia, with one under construction in the Komunarskyi district and 13 others in active construction across the oblast, in addition to six already open. This highlights efforts to ensure educational continuity despite the conflict.
Humanitarian Needs: A Ukrainian volunteer ("Two Majors" sharing a post) expresses exhaustion and the ongoing need for supplies for the army, noting that collections are down and requests are not decreasing as the army is on the offensive.
Information Operations: Ukrainian sources are highlighting Russian losses, successful defensive actions, and the provision of equipment to their forces. They are also showcasing soldier training and the ongoing humanitarian impact of Russian attacks.
Political, Diplomatic, and Information Environment
Diplomatic Discussions: TASS reports that US Envoy Waltz stated the US-Ukraine deal on useful minerals will be concluded and that Trump is resolute on this issue. Russian Presidential Spokesman Peskov reiterated that Trump's position on Ukraine coincides with Russia's on many elements, and that discussions on specific conditions are ongoing in a non-public format. "Zona SVO" amplified Rubio's statement that this week will be critically important for resolving the crisis in Ukraine and that the US has reasons for optimism. Rubio is also quoted by RBC-Ukraine stating that the US wants to end the war due to its cost in money and lives, and that peace agreements are built on verification and facts, not trust.
Geopolitical Tensions: Le Monde reports that heads of parliamentary committees from Ukraine, UK, France, Czech Republic, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia have appealed to the US to toughen its approach to Russia, condemning "appeasement policy" and demanding a united and tough stance, asserting Ukraine cannot be subject to external pressure or compromises on its sovereignty. This highlights continued European pressure for stronger action against Russia and potential divergence from potential US approaches under Trump. Russian sources (Alex Parker Returns, OpZ, RV) are promoting videos and narratives of protests in Ireland against migrants, with some protestors carrying portraits of Putin, Trump, and Conor McGregor, linking anti-immigrant sentiment in Europe to figures seen as aligned against current European policies.
Russian Internal Affairs and Information Operations: ASTRA reports that bailiffs in Moscow allegedly beat a 70-year-old former FSB investigator and defense lawyer in a case related to the "Citizens of the USSR" group, leading to an investigation against the lawyer instead of the bailiffs. This raises concerns about the rule of law and treatment of individuals in Russia. Russian volunteer channels ("Two Majors") are expressing fatigue and the ongoing need for financial and material support for the army despite the stated offensive, indicating potential disconnects between official narratives and the realities of volunteer support. Alex Parker Returns is promoting a fundraising appeal for a fighter with the call sign "Faust," framing it in terms of supporting the army and uniting the Russian people. Alex Parker Returns also shared a video claiming Roma individuals are looting graves of Ukrainian soldiers in Kyiv cemeteries, a potentially disinformation-laden narrative aimed at undermining Ukrainian society. Colonelcassad shared a photo with a derogatory term for Russia in a caption about a "reloсant's" struggles in Almaty, reflecting internal tensions and negative perceptions among some who have left Russia. Colonelcassad also shared a video of claimed Ukrainian prisoners of war in Gornal, Kursk Oblast. Moscow News reports a bulldog parade in Vorontsovsky Park in Moscow, a non-military event.
Capabilities, Logistics, and Personnel
Ukrainian Capabilities: Demonstrated capability to intercept a significant number of enemy UAVs, including "drone-imitators." Continued effective use of air defense systems like NASAMS. Highlighting growing domestic production of "Bohdana" self-propelled howitzers (reported 36 units/month). Strong emphasis and investment in drone technology (FPV, DJI, Autel, thermal cameras), including for reconnaissance, targeting, and potentially remote mining. Capacity for ongoing training and psychological support for military personnel. Effective use of prepared defensive positions (trenches, fortified artillery positions). Continued ability to conduct offensive actions and inflict losses on Russian forces. Logistical support from regional administrations (Zaporizhzhia) is providing critical equipment.
Russian Capabilities: Continued capacity for large-scale UAV attacks from multiple launch points. Ability to conduct offensive ground operations across multiple axes and claim tactical advances. Use of various artillery systems and aerial bombs. Continued use of drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and logistical support (supply delivery to forward positions). Ongoing training efforts for drone operators. Continued reliance on volunteer support networks for specific equipment needs.
Personnel and Losses: Ukrainian GSh reports a high number of combat engagements daily, indicating sustained personnel commitment on both sides. Russian MoD provides estimated Ukrainian personnel losses on various axes. Ukrainian sources highlight Russian personnel losses. The NATO-backed psychological rehabilitation project indicates efforts to address the mental health and combat stress of Ukrainian soldiers. The account from the Russian volunteer highlights the fatigue and challenges faced by individuals supporting the military effort and potentially suggests high casualty rates in forward units leading to persistent needs.
Logistics: Ukraine continues to receive significant logistical support, including vehicles, drones, and communication equipment, from regional administrations and likely international partners. The reported hit on an ammunition train in Sloviansk (previous report) would represent a significant logistical disruption if confirmed. Russia is utilizing drones for supply delivery to forward positions. Volunteer fundraising efforts in Russia suggest potential gaps or delays in official state provision of certain equipment.
Ethical Considerations and Compliance
Continued civilian casualties and damage to civilian infrastructure from shelling and drone attacks (Kostiantynivka, Kharkiv) remain critical ethical concerns and potential violations of international humanitarian law.
The reported alleged beating of a civilian by bailiffs in Moscow and the subsequent investigation against the victim raise serious human rights and rule of law concerns within Russia.
The reported alleged looting of Ukrainian soldiers' graves is a deeply insensitive and potentially disinformation-laden act that adds a layer of disrespect to the human cost of the conflict.
The information environment continues to feature potentially harmful and dehumanizing narratives, such as the alleged looting of graves and the derogatory term used in the context of "reloсants."
The NATO-backed psychological rehabilitation project highlights the ethical imperative to address the mental well-being of soldiers exposed to the trauma of combat.
Potential Indicators
Confirmation or denial of claimed territorial gains by either side from independent sources.
Changes in the intensity, location, and type of Russian offensive operations.
Any further details or outcomes of diplomatic discussions, particularly regarding potential negotiation frameworks or conditions.
Observed changes in the flow or type of military aid to Ukraine from international partners.
The impact of ongoing training programs on the performance of units in combat.
Evidence of the effectiveness or limitations of specific military technologies, especially drones and EW systems, in recent engagements.
Changes in the level of activity or success of volunteer fundraising and supply efforts on both sides.
Further reports or investigations into alleged human rights abuses or violations of the rule of law.
Shifts in the dominant narratives or themes in the information environment.
Changes in the frequency or geographical spread of reported civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure.
The impact of efforts to restore civilian life and infrastructure, such as the construction of underground schools.
