Situation Report

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Update (April 26, 2025, 22:32 UTC)

I. Strategic & Air Warfare

• Continued Strike UAV Activity: Russian strike UAVs remain active across Ukraine. Alerts indicate drones in Kharkiv Oblast towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, a new drone threat entering Sumy from the north and heading towards Sumy city, and a drone on the border of Chernihiv and Kyiv Oblasts moving towards Kyiv Oblast. Strike UAV threats are also present in Kyiv, Poltava, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. A specific drone is reported heading towards Pavlohrad from the northwest. New reports confirm UAVs approaching Dnipro from the northeast and a drone heading towards Myrhorod from the north. Widespread air raid alerts are active in Dnipropetrovsk, Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Poltava, Sumy, Kharkiv, and Chernihiv Oblasts. Several groups of enemy UAVs are reported heading towards Zhytomyr from northern and northeastern directions, with air defense actively engaged in Kyiv Oblast against Russian UAVs. Residents of Zhytomyr are advised to seek shelter. An enemy UAV is reported over the city of Slovyansk, Donetsk Oblast.
• New Russian Loitering Munition "Banderol": Russian sources report the fielding of a new loitering munition, the "Banderol," equipped with a jet engine capable of speeds up to 400-500 km/h. It has reportedly been used in Odesa Oblast for several weeks. JSC "Kronshtadt" and JSC "KT - Unmanned Systems" are identified as involved manufacturers. This suggests Russia is deploying faster, potentially more difficult-to-intercept loitering munitions.
• Russian Air Defense Claims: The Russian MoD claims their air defense shot down three Ukrainian aircraft-type UAVs over Bryansk Oblast, corroborated by the Bryansk Oblast Governor. The Russian MoD also claims shooting down a significant number of Ukrainian UAVs and other munitions over the past day, including eight US-made JDAM guided aerial bombs and two HIMARS MLRS projectiles, and 236 fixed-wing unmanned aerial vehicles.
• Russian "Geran" Activity: Russian sources (НгП раZVедка) report "Gerans" have crossed the border into Ukraine.
• Russian Air and Drone Support: Russian sources (Voin DV, 11th Guards Army of the Air Force and Air Defense, "Vostok" Group) claim Su-34 aircraft with FAB-500s (UMPK) struck Ukrainian temporary deployment points in Novopol and Temirovka. They also share video claiming to be bombing Ukrainian strongpoints on the Zaporizhzhia direction with drones.

II. Frontline Operations

• Southern Donetsk Direction: Russian sources (RVvoenkor) report mechanized assaults on Ukrainian strongpoints in forested areas south of Bohatyr, with infantry entering treelines and significantly expanding the grey zone, indicating an active push for tactical gains.
• Zaporizhzhia Front: Russian sources (RVvoenkor) share video claiming Russian forces (291st Regiment) are destroying Ukrainian infantry near Robotyne and Orikhiv, indicating continued fighting on this axis. Russian military bloggers are conducting fundraising for the 7th Guards Air Assault Division on this front, requesting Mavic 3 series drones, drone detectors, radios, and 5.45mm magazines, highlighting equipment needs.
• Kursk Direction: DeepState analysts report Ukrainian forces remain in Kursk Oblast and are engaged in ongoing battles with Russian and North Korean forces, targeting enemy logistics and concentration areas. Russian sources (MoD Russia) claim the complete rout of Ukrainian military outfits in the Kursk region and the liberation of Hornal. Russian sources (Сливочный каприз) report active combat in the Sudzha area, specifically in the village of Loknya, claiming Russian infantry are attacking and occupying positions, advancing up to 1 km and regaining previously lost positions. Russian sources (Colonelcassad) share videos purportedly showing Kursk Oblast residents celebrating the alleged liberation, reinforcing the Russian narrative. Ukrainian sources (Оперативний ЗСУ) share a photo purportedly showing a school burning in Sloboda Bila, Kursk Oblast, with unconfirmed reports of a burning oil plant, indicating potential Ukrainian strikes and noting an air raid alert in Kursk Oblast due to UAVs. Ukrainian sources (Оперативний ЗСУ) share a video purportedly showing explosions or sounds within the burning school. Russian sources (НгП раZVедка) share photos purportedly of North Korean soldiers, praising their "courage" and effectiveness ("svinoreza") against Ukrainian forces, indicating continued direct North Korean involvement and promoting their contribution in "liberating" Kursk Oblast.
• Belgorod Border Region: A video attributed to the Ukrainian "Pentagon" unit of the 225th Assault Battalion reportedly shows two Russian soldiers attempting an assault towards the state border from a truck and being engaged, indicating continued, potentially disorganized, Russian activity.
• Close-Quarters Combat Tactics: A video attributed to the Ukrainian 15th Separate Brigade of the National Guard "Kara-Dag" shows the detonation of a Russian dugout by throwing a TM-62 mine inside, highlighting close-quarters combat and innovative tactics.
• Kupyansk Direction: Russian sources (RVvoenkor, "West" Group of Forces) claim successful use of an FPV control system on fiber optic, "Groza Leska," in engaging Ukrainian equipment and special forces, indicating adaptation in drone control technology.
• Counter-Drone Efforts: Russian sources (Voin DV, KARA detachment, 155th Separate Guards Naval Infantry Brigade) claim the destruction of a Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" heavy drone near Demidovka, demonstrating efforts to counter these Ukrainian assets.
• Russian Artillery Claims: Russian sources (Colonelcassad) claim the destruction of a Ukrainian D-20 howitzer and its crew in the Aleksandro-Shultino area by the Russian 238th Artillery Brigade.

III. Capabilities, Logistics & Personnel

• Effective Ukrainian FPV Drone Use: Ukrainian forces continue effective use of FPV drones, with reports showing successful strikes and efforts to eliminate Russian personnel in the Belgorod border region and targeting a Russian logistics base. A new video shows extensive use of FPV drones for liquidating Russian personnel.
• Ukrainian Reconnaissance and Targeting: Ukrainian intelligence assets are utilizing Shark UAVs for reconnaissance and adjusting missile strikes on Russian logistics bases, highlighting continued capabilities in intelligence gathering and precision strikes.
• Russian Fundraising for Frontline Units: Russian military bloggers are conducting fundraising campaigns for the 7th Guards Air Assault Division on the Zaporizhzhia front and for thermal vision equipment and Mavic 3 drones. This provides insight into specific equipment needs for offensive operations and continued reliance on volunteer support.
• Russian Defense Industrial Base: The identification of JSC "Kronshtadt" and JSC "KT - Unmanned Systems" as manufacturers of the new "Banderol" loitering munition is significant for understanding Russia's defense industrial base for advanced drone systems.
• Russian Personnel Actions: Russian state media (TASS) reports on the actions of Lieutenant Nikita Pirozhenko, highlighting individual acts of bravery within the Russian military.
• Foreign-Supplied Munitions: Russian sources (Colonelcassad) share images of a French-made GR MA OF F1A offensive hand grenade and French 20mm anti-personnel grenades (Mle F1) present in the conflict zone, indicating the type of foreign-supplied munitions on the battlefield.

IV. Political & Diplomatic Context

• Chernobyl Commemoration: Ukrainian President Zelenskyy and Zaporizhzhia OVA commemorated the 39th anniversary of the Chernobyl disaster, drawing parallels between the accident's threat and the global threat posed by Russia's war. Russian sources also commemorated the event, framing it as a day of remembrance.
• Russian Information Operations: Russian state media (TASS) reports that Die Weltwoche claims high-ranking EU officials are increasingly convinced of the "toxicity" of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and want her resignation, reflecting Russian efforts to sow discord within the EU.
• German Political Landscape: Reports from German media indicate that the future German Chancellor, Merz, plans to name new ministers next week, relevant for understanding the future composition of a key European partner.
• Berlin May 8th/9th Symbol Ban: Berlin police reportedly plan to ban Soviet, "fascist Russian," Belarusian, Kadyrov, and "Z" and "V" symbols on May 8th and 9th, indicating continued international measures against symbols associated with Russian military actions.
• Unverified Ceasefire/Negotiation Claim: Russian sources ("Зона СВО") claim that Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has agreed to a US-proposed temporary ceasefire starting next week and negotiations with Russia, to be overseen by his Chief of Staff Andriy Yermak. This claim requires independent verification and may be part of Russian information operations.
• Donald Trump's Stance: Russian state media (TASS) reports that Donald Trump claims the demands for the return of Ukraine's lost territories, including Crimea, are "ridiculous". This aligns with Russia's position and could have implications for future US support for Ukraine's territorial integrity.
• US Sanctions Pressure: US Senator Lindsey Graham reportedly expressed readiness to agree to additional sanctions against Russia if it refuses a "decent and just" peace with Ukraine and filed a bipartisan bill for secondary tariffs on countries buying Russian energy and other goods. This indicates continued US legislative pressure on Russia.

V. Humanitarian & Ethical Dimensions

• Chernobyl Legacy: Commemoration of the Chernobyl disaster highlights the potential for large-scale humanitarian and environmental consequences of conflict.
• Personnel Treatment Concerns: The report on the alleged treatment and high losses within Russian "Storm Z" units raises human rights and ethical concerns regarding personnel management, treatment of convict recruits, and support for wounded soldiers.
• Targeting of Civilian Infrastructure: The reported burning school in Sloboda Bila, Kursk Oblast, if confirmed to be a result of military action, raises concerns about the targeting of civilian infrastructure.
• Battlefield Conduct: A video shared by Russian sources appears to show an individual abandoning a wounded soldier, which, if verified, would raise serious ethical concerns regarding battlefield conduct.

VI. Counter-Intelligence & Security

• Internal Russian Security Concerns: Russian commentary continues to focus on the alleged detention of Ignat Kuzin, criticizing the ease with which money, weapons, and explosives enter Russia for alleged terrorist acts and calling for stronger counter-terrorism structures. They mention the recent attack on an electronic warfare system designer in Bryansk and claim SBU responsibility.
• Russian Counter-Intelligence Efforts: The reported detention of a Romanian citizen in Sochi by the FSB for allegedly collecting data on Russian air defense locations for Ukrainian special services indicates ongoing Russian counter-intelligence efforts and suggests continued Ukrainian intelligence gathering within Russia.

VII. Information Operations

• Undermining Western Leadership: Russian information operations are promoting the narrative of dissatisfaction with EU leadership (targeting Ursula von der Leyen).
• Demonstrating Public Support/Highlighting Needs: Russian military bloggers continue to utilize fundraising campaigns to demonstrate public support and highlight specific equipment needs on the front lines.
• Framing Ukraine as Terrorist: Russian sources are promoting the idea that Ukraine is engaging in terrorist acts within Russia and claiming SBU responsibility to justify their actions and rally domestic support.
• Contested Narrative on Kursk: DeepState's report of Ukrainian presence and fighting in Kursk Oblast against Russians and Koreans counters Russian claims of complete liberation. The Russian MoD's strong claim of rout reinforces their narrative. Russian sources are actively reporting on Russian advances and combat in Loknya (Sudzha area) and promoting the "liberation" narrative through videos of local residents. Ukrainian sources are reporting potential strikes in Sloboda Bila, Kursk Oblast, contradicting Russian claims and highlighting continued Ukrainian operational capability. Russian sources are promoting the involvement and effectiveness of North Korean soldiers in the conflict and advocating for an end to sanctions against North Korea.
• Highlighting Russian Losses and Ukrainian Successes: Ukrainian sources continue to highlight Russian military losses and tactical failures and successful Ukrainian operations. New videos highlight extensive Ukrainian FPV drone use for liquidating Russian personnel.
• Leveraging Chernobyl Commemoration: Commemoration of the Chernobyl disaster is used by Ukrainian sources to emphasize the global threat posed by Russia's war.
• Internal Russian Narratives: Russian commentary on the case of General Popov reflects internal discussions and differing perspectives within the Russian military sphere. The Russian project to Russify migrants contributes to the narrative of state capacity. Russian state media highlights acts of bravery by Russian servicemen.
• Disseminating Unverified Claims: Russian sources are disseminating the claim that Zelenskyy has agreed to a temporary ceasefire and negotiations, likely as part of an information operation.
• Aligning with Western Figures: Russian state media is promoting Donald Trump's stance on the "ridiculous" nature of Ukrainian demands for territorial return, aiming to show a potential weakening of Western support for Ukraine's territorial integrity.
• Highlighting Western Pressure/Conditions: US Senator Lindsey Graham's reported statement and proposed bill for secondary sanctions against Russia sets conditions for potential future economic measures and serves as a US information operation.
• Highlighting Foreign Support: The showcasing of North Korean soldiers by Russian sources highlights foreign support for Russia.
• Highlighting Foreign Aid to Ukraine: The presence of French-made hand grenades and 20mm anti-personnel grenades on the battlefield highlights continued Western military aid.

VIII. Potential Indicators

• The introduction and deployment of the "Banderol" loitering munition with a jet engine indicates an evolution in Russia's drone capabilities and suggests a potential future threat of faster drone attacks. Monitoring its effectiveness and deployment areas is crucial.
• The ongoing fighting and confirmed Ukrainian presence in Kursk Oblast, despite conflicting Russian claims of "liberation," indicate that this border region remains a contested and active front, potentially drawing Russian resources. The continued mention of fighting against North Korean personnel is a significant indicator of direct foreign involvement. Reports of Russian infantry attacks and advances in Loknya (Sudzha area) are a key indicator of ongoing localized ground offensive operations. Ukrainian reporting of potential strikes in Sloboda Bila serves as a counter-indicator to Russian claims of complete control.
• The Russian military blogger fundraising campaigns for units on the Zaporizhzhia front and special forces units suggest these are key areas of anticipated offensive activity or significant equipment needs.
• Continued Russian information operations aimed at undermining Western leadership and framing Ukraine as terrorist indicate persistent efforts to create divisions and justify actions.
• The reported internal issues and high losses within Russian "Storm Z" units could indicate a potential weakness in force generation, although their continued use in assaults suggests a willingness to accept high casualties.
• The reported planned ban of Russian-associated symbols in Berlin indicates continued international measures against Russian narratives and actions.
• The claimed successful use of a fiber optic FPV control system by Russian forces is an indicator of adaptation and technological development in drone warfare.
• The reported destruction of Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drones by Russian FPVs indicates a specific tactical focus on countering these assets.
• The Russian MoD's claimed high numbers of intercepted Ukrainian UAVs and munitions, if accurate, could indicate a significant volume of Ukrainian strike activity or improved Russian air defense capabilities.
• New air raid alerts across multiple oblasts due to ongoing Russian UAV activity, specifically impacting Zhytomyr, Kyiv Oblast (with air defense work), Dnipro, Myrhorod, Pavlohrad, and Slovyansk, indicate a sustained Russian focus on aerial attacks and specific targets.
• The unverified Russian claim that Zelenskyy has agreed to a temporary ceasefire and negotiations is a significant information operation indicator aimed at creating a false narrative.
• Donald Trump's reported stance on Ukrainian territorial demands is a significant indicator of a potential shift in US stance under a possible future administration, aligning with Russia's territorial claims.
• The continued showcasing of North Korean soldiers and their alleged effectiveness by Russian sources is an indicator of direct foreign involvement and an attempt to leverage this in information operations.
• The presence of French-made hand grenades and 20mm anti-personnel grenades on the battlefield indicates continued Western military aid to Ukraine.
• US Senator Lindsey Graham's reported statement and proposed bill for secondary sanctions are significant indicators of continued US legislative pressure on Russia and setting conditions for future economic measures.

Updated Situation: High-intensity ground combat continues, particularly on the Southern Donetsk direction near Bohatyr and on the Zaporizhzhia front near Robotyne and Orikhiv. The Kursk border region remains a contested and active front, with ongoing clashes and shelling, confirmed Ukrainian presence fighting against Russian and North Korean forces, and reports of Russian infantry attacks and gains in Loknya (Sudzha area), while Ukrainian sources report potential strikes in Sloboda Bila, contradicting Russian claims of complete control. A significant development is the confirmed use of a new, faster Russian loitering munition, the "Banderol," potentially indicating a shift in Russian drone warfare capabilities. Widespread air raid alerts are active across multiple oblasts due to ongoing Russian UAV activity, with specific alerts for Zhytomyr, Kyiv Oblast (with air defense work), Dnipro, Myrhorod, Pavlohrad, and Slovyansk. Information operations surrounding alleged Ukrainian terrorism in Russia and the situation in Kursk remain key focuses for Moscow. Ukraine continues diplomatic efforts and highlights the severity of the conflict. Russian military bloggers are actively fundraising for specific equipment for units on the Zaporizhzhia front and special forces units, suggesting these remain areas of focus. There are continued indicators of potential Ukrainian deep operations within Russia. Internal issues within Russian military units are being reported. Both sides are continuing to adapt their tactics and technology, including in the use of drones and counter-drone measures, with Ukrainian FPV drone use remaining highly effective in targeting Russian personnel. The political environment remains complex, with differing views on peace terms and ongoing efforts to shape narratives and influence international support, with new reports of a US Senator threatening further sanctions on Russia depending on a "just" peace and reinforcing US legislative pressure. Russian sources are disseminating claims about Zelenskyy agreeing to a ceasefire and negotiations, which requires verification, and Donald Trump's reported stance on Ukrainian territorial demands aligns with Russia's position. North Korean military involvement on the Russian side continues to be highlighted by Russian sources, who are also advocating for an end to sanctions against North Korea. The presence of French-made hand grenades and 20mm anti-personnel grenades on the battlefield indicates continued Western military aid.