Situation Report

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Update

I. Strategic & Air Warfare

• Continued Russian strike UAV employment persists. Drones are reported over Kharkiv Oblast towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, a new alert for a strike UAV on Sumy from the north, moving towards the city, and a drone on the border of Chernihiv and Kyiv Oblasts moving towards Kyiv Oblast. Threats of strike UAVs also exist in Kyiv, Poltava, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. A specific drone is reported heading towards Pavlohrad from the northwest. New reports indicate UAVs on Dnipro from the northeast, and a drone heading towards Myrhorod from the north. Widespread air raid alerts are active in Dnipropetrovsk, Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Poltava, Sumy, Kharkiv, and Chernihiv Oblasts.
• Several groups of enemy UAVs are reported heading towards Zhytomyr from northern and northeastern directions. Air defense is reportedly working in Kyiv Oblast against Russian UAVs. Residents of Zhytomyr are advised to seek shelter.
• Russian sources (Colonelcassad, citing Ukrainian resources and the GUR website) report on a new Russian loitering munition, the "Banderol," reportedly equipped with a jet engine allowing for speeds of 400-500 km/h. It is described as a loitering munition and has reportedly been used to attack targets in Odesa Oblast for several weeks. JSC "Kronshtadt" and JSC "KT - Unmanned Systems" are identified as involved enterprises. This is a significant development, indicating Russia is fielding faster, potentially harder-to-intercept loitering munitions.
• The Russian MoD claims their air defense units shot down three Ukrainian aircraft-type UAVs over Bryansk Oblast. This is corroborated by the Bryansk Oblast Governor.
• Russian sources (НгП раZVедка) report "Gerans" have crossed the border and are heading towards Ukraine.

II. Frontline Operations

• Russian sources (RVvoenkor) report mechanized assaults are being conducted by Russian forces on Ukrainian strongpoints in forested areas south of Bohatyr on the Southern Donetsk direction, with infantry entering the treelines and significantly expanding the grey zone. This indicates an active push for tactical gains in this specific area. Russian sources (RVvoenkor) share video claiming Russian forces (291st Regiment) are destroying Ukrainian infantry near Robotyne and Orikhiv on the Zaporizhzhia front. This indicates continued fighting on the Orikhiv axis.
• Kursk Direction: DeepState analysts state that Ukrainian forces remain in Kursk Oblast and are engaged in ongoing battles with Russian and North Korean forces, targeting enemy logistics and concentration areas, contradicting recent Russian claims of complete liberation. Russian sources (MoD Russia) claim the complete rout of Ukrainian military outfits in the Kursk region and the liberation of Hornal, describing it as the last settlement controlled by Ukrainian militants. This presents a significant discrepancy in reporting on this area. Russian sources (Сливочный каприз) report active combat operations in the Sudzha area, specifically in the village of Loknya, claiming Russian infantry units are attacking and occupying positions in the center of the residential area under Ukrainian fire, and have advanced up to 1 km, regaining previously lost positions. Russian sources (Colonelcassad) share videos purportedly showing residents of Kursk Oblast expressing relief and celebrating the alleged liberation of the region from Ukrainian forces, reinforcing the Russian narrative of success in this area. Russian sources (НгП раZVедка) share a photo purportedly of North Korean soldiers, praising their "courage" and effectiveness against Ukrainian forces ("svinoreza"), indicating continued direct North Korean involvement on the Russian side in the conflict zone.
• A video shared by Operatyvnyi ZSU, attributed to the "Pentagon" unit of the 225th Assault Battalion, reportedly shows two Russian soldiers attempting an assault towards the state border in Belgorod Oblast from a truck and being engaged. This indicates continued, albeit potentially disorganized, Russian activity in the border region.
• A video shared by Operatyvnyi ZSU, attributed to the 15th Separate Brigade of the National Guard "Kara-Dag," shows the detonation of a Russian dugout by throwing a TM-62 mine inside, indicating close-quarters combat and innovative tactics.
• Russian sources (RVvoenkor, "West" Group of Forces) claim successful use of an FPV control system on fiber optic, "Groza Leska," in engaging Ukrainian equipment and special forces on the Kupyansk direction in Kharkiv Oblast. This indicates adaptation in drone control technology.
• Russian sources (Voin DV, KARA detachment, 155th Separate Guards Naval Infantry Brigade) claim the destruction of a Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" heavy drone near Demidovka, demonstrating efforts to counter these types of Ukrainian assets.
• Russian sources (Voin DV, 11th Guards Army of the Air Force and Air Defense, "Vostok" Group) claim Su-34 aircraft with FAB-500s (UMPK) struck Ukrainian temporary deployment points in Novopol and Temirovka. They also share video claiming to be bombing Ukrainian strongpoints on the Zaporizhzhia direction with drones. This indicates continued Russian air and drone support for ground operations, particularly on the Southern Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia axes.
• Russian sources (Colonelcassad) claim the destruction of a Ukrainian D-20 howitzer and its crew in the Aleksandro-Shultino area by the Russian 238th Artillery Brigade.

III. Capabilities, Logistics & Personnel

• Ukrainian forces continue effective use of FPV drones, with reports (STERNENKO) showing video of successful strikes and Operatyvnyi ZSU highlighting efforts to eliminate Russian personnel in the Belgorod border region and the effective use of drones for targeting a Russian logistics base (92nd Assault Brigade). A new video shared by Operatyvnyi ZSU (Мадяр) shows extensive use of FPV drones for liquidating Russian personnel.
• Ukrainian intelligence assets are utilizing Shark UAVs for reconnaissance and adjusting missile strikes on Russian logistics bases, as shown by a video shared by Operatyvnyi ZSU attributed to the 92nd Assault Brigade. This highlights continued capabilities in intelligence gathering and precision strikes.
• Russian military bloggers (Dva Mayora and Dnevnik Desantnika) are conducting a fundraising campaign for the 7th Guards Air Assault Division on the Zaporizhzhia front. The listed needs include a significant number of Mavic 3 series drones, drone detectors, radios, and 5.45mm magazines, totaling over 4.9 million rubles with over 2.2 million already collected. Another Russian channel (Archangel Spetsnaz) is fundraising for thermal vision equipment and Mavic 3 drones. This provides insight into the specific equipment deemed critical for offensive operations on these axes and highlights continued reliance on volunteer support for key capabilities.
• The identification of JSC "Kronshtadt" and JSC "KT - Unmanned Systems" as manufacturers of the new "Banderol" loitering munition is significant for targeting these entities with sanctions and understanding Russia's defense industrial base for advanced drone systems.
• The Russian MoD claims their air defense units shot down a significant number of Ukrainian UAVs and other munitions, including eight US-made JDAM guided aerial bombs and two HIMARS MLRS projectiles, and 236 fixed-wing unmanned aerial vehicles over the past day. (This claim is significantly higher than previous Ukrainian reporting on drone launches).
• Russian state media (TASS) reports on the actions of Lieutenant Nikita Pirozhenko, claiming he evacuated subordinates and restored communications during Ukrainian shelling, highlighting individual acts of bravery and resilience within the Russian military.

IV. Political & Diplomatic Context

• Ukrainian President Zelenskyy and Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration (OVA) commemorated the 39th anniversary of the Chernobyl disaster, honoring the liquidators and drawing parallels between the global threat of the accident and the global threat posed by Russia's war. This serves to emphasize the severity of the current conflict and the importance of international support. Russian sources (Dnevnik Desantnika) also commemorated the Chernobyl anniversary, framing it as a day of remembrance and calling to prevent repetition.
• Russian state media (TASS) reports that Die Weltwoche claims high-ranking EU officials are increasingly convinced of the "toxicity" of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and want her resignation. This reflects Russian information operations aiming to sow discord and undermine confidence in European leadership.
• Reports from German media (RBC-Ukraine) indicate that the future German Chancellor, Merz, plans to name new ministers next week, including for foreign affairs and economics. This is relevant for understanding the future composition of a key European partner for Ukraine.
• Berlin police reportedly plan to ban Soviet, "fascist Russian," Belarusian, Kadyrov, and "Z" and "V" symbols on May 8th and 9th, as reported by a Ukrainian source (Shef Hayabusa). This indicates continued international measures to counter symbols associated with the Russian military actions.
• Russian sources ("Зона СВО") claim that Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has agreed to a US-proposed temporary ceasefire starting next week and negotiations with Russia, to be overseen by his Chief of Staff Andriy Yermak. This claim requires independent verification and appears to contradict previous Ukrainian stances, potentially being part of Russian information operations.
• Russian state media (TASS) reports that Donald Trump claims the demands for the return of territories lost by Ukraine, including Crimea, are "ridiculous". This aligns with Russia's maximalist position and, if accurate, is a significant indicator of Trump's stance on the territorial aspects of a potential peace settlement, which could have implications for future US support for Ukraine.

V. Humanitarian & Ethical Dimensions

• Commemoration of the Chernobyl disaster highlights the potential for large-scale humanitarian and environmental consequences of conflict, reinforcing the importance of minimizing damage to critical infrastructure and preventing escalation.
• The report on the alleged treatment and high losses within Russian "Storm Z" units (Colonelcassad via a captured soldier) raises significant human rights and ethical concerns regarding personnel management, treatment of convict recruits, and support for wounded soldiers within the Russian armed forces.
• The commemoration of the Chernobyl disaster by both sides underscores the shared history and potential for catastrophic events, serving as a reminder of the humanitarian consequences of conflict.
• A video shared by Russian sources (Новости Москвы) appears to show an individual abandoning a wounded soldier, which, if verified, would raise serious ethical concerns regarding battlefield conduct and treatment of personnel.

VI. Counter-Intelligence & Security

• Russian commentary (Bloknot Propagandista) continues to focus on the alleged detention of Ignat Kuzin, criticizing the ease with which money, weapons, and explosives enter Russia for alleged terrorist acts and calling for a stronger structure to combat alleged Ukrainian terrorism and extremism. They specifically mention the recent attack on an electronic warfare system designer in Bryansk and claim the SBU is openly taking responsibility, reinforcing the narrative of Ukrainian-backed attacks within Russia.
• The reported detention of a Romanian citizen in Sochi by the FSB for allegedly collecting data on Russian air defense locations for Ukrainian special services (TASS) indicates ongoing counter-intelligence efforts by Russia and suggests continued intelligence gathering operations by Ukraine within Russia.

VII. Information Operations

• Russian information operations are promoting the narrative of dissatisfaction with EU leadership, as seen in the TASS report on Ursula von der Leyen.
• Russian military bloggers continue to utilize fundraising campaigns as a means of demonstrating public support for the military and highlighting specific needs on the front lines (Zaporizhzhia front, special forces units).
• Russian sources are promoting the idea that Ukraine is engaging in terrorist acts within Russia and claiming the SBU is responsible for recent attacks, attempting to justify their actions and potentially rally domestic support.
• DeepState's report confirming Ukrainian presence and ongoing fighting in Kursk Oblast against Russians and Koreans, despite Russian claims of liberation, is a significant counter-narrative. The Russian MoD's claim of complete rout and liberation of Hornal is a clear attempt to shape the narrative regarding this specific area. Russian sources are now specifically reporting active combat and Russian advances in Loknya in the Sudzha area, providing a counter-narrative to Ukrainian claims of persistent presence. Russian sources (Colonelcassad) are actively promoting the narrative of the "liberation" of the Kursk region through videos of local residents expressing relief and celebrating, reinforcing this claim.
• Ukrainian sources continue to highlight Russian military losses and tactical failures, as potentially seen in the video of the attempted assault in Belgorod. They also highlight successful Ukrainian operations, such as the destruction of a Russian dugout and targeting a logistics base, and the liquidation of Russian personnel using FPV drones.
• Commemoration of the Chernobyl disaster is used by Ukrainian sources to emphasize the global threat posed by Russia's war and the importance of international solidarity. Russian sources also commemorate the event but frame it differently.
• The report on the Russian project to Russify migrants in Alabuga, while not directly military, contributes to the Russian narrative of state capacity and social order during the conflict.
• Discussions among Russian military bloggers about the case of General Popov highlight internal issues and differing perspectives within the Russian military sphere, potentially reflecting underlying tensions.
• Russian sources are promoting the idea of successfully destroying Ukrainian heavy drones ("Baba Yaga") and utilizing advanced FPV control systems. They are also claiming successful destruction of Ukrainian artillery.
• The Russian MoD's claimed high numbers of intercepted Ukrainian UAVs and munitions, if accurate, could indicate a significant volume of Ukrainian strike activity or improved Russian air defense capabilities, though the number of downed drones is notably higher than previous Ukrainian reporting).
• Russian state media (TASS) highlights acts of bravery by Russian servicemen during shelling, aimed at boosting morale and portraying resilience.
• Russian sources ("Зона СВО") are disseminating a claim that Zelenskyy has agreed to a temporary ceasefire and negotiations, likely as part of an information operation to create a perception of Ukrainian willingness to capitulate or to influence diplomatic discussions.
• Russian state media (TASS) is promoting Donald Trump's stance on the "ridiculous" nature of Ukrainian demands for territorial return, aiming to show a potential weakening of Western support for Ukraine's territorial integrity.
• Russian sources (НгП раZVедка) are promoting the involvement and effectiveness of North Korean soldiers ("Warriors of comrade Kim") in the conflict, likely to highlight foreign support for Russia and potentially intimidate Ukrainian forces.

VIII. Potential Indicators

• The introduction of the "Banderol" loitering munition with a jet engine indicates an evolution in Russia's drone capabilities, suggesting a potential future threat of faster and potentially more challenging-to-intercept drone attacks, particularly in areas like Odesa Oblast. Monitoring the deployment and effectiveness of this new system is crucial.
• The ongoing fighting and confirmed Ukrainian presence in Kursk Oblast, despite conflicting Russian claims of "liberation," indicate that this border region remains a contested and active front, potentially drawing Russian resources and serving as a point of pressure for Ukraine. The mention of fighting against North Korean personnel in this area is a continued significant indicator of direct foreign involvement on the Russian side. The Russian MoD's strong claim of complete rout suggests they are attempting to solidify a narrative of success in this area, potentially preceding further actions. Reports of Russian infantry attacks and advances in Loknya in the Sudzha area indicate a specific area of ongoing Russian offensive operations in the Kursk border region. Russian information operations focusing on celebrating the "liberation" of Kursk Oblast, despite conflicting reports of Ukrainian presence, indicate a deliberate attempt to shape the narrative and potentially prepare for future actions or consolidate gains.
• The Russian military blogger fundraising campaigns for units on the Zaporizhzhia front and special forces units suggest these are key areas of anticipated offensive activity or are facing significant equipment needs for current operations. This is an indicator for potential future offensives or sustained high-intensity combat in these sectors. The video claiming destruction of Ukrainian infantry near Robotyne and Orikhiv further supports the assessment of ongoing fighting on the Zaporizhzhia front.
• Continued Russian information operations aimed at undermining Western leadership, such as targeting Ursula von der Leyen, indicate a persistent effort to create divisions within the EU and weaken support for Ukraine.
• Russian emphasis on alleged Ukrainian terrorism within Russia and calls for increased security measures are indicators of internal security concerns and a potential justification for further actions against Ukraine.
• The commemoration of the Chernobyl disaster by both sides serves as a powerful indicator of the potential for catastrophic consequences in the conflict and is used in information operations to emphasize different aspects of the threat.
• The reported internal issues and high losses within Russian "Storm Z" units, if widespread, could indicate a potential weakness in Russian force generation and sustainment, although their continued use in assaults suggests a willingness to accept high casualties.
• The reported planned ban of Russian-associated symbols in Berlin indicates continued international measures to counter Russian narratives and actions.
• The Russian project to Russify migrants, while not directly military, could indicate a long-term strategy to address labor shortages and integrate foreign populations, which could indirectly support the Russian economy and potentially provide future personnel.
• The public discussion among Russian military bloggers regarding the case of General Popov is an indicator of potential internal tensions and differing views within the Russian military information space.
• The claimed successful use of a fiber optic FPV control system by Russian forces is an indicator of adaptation and technological development in drone warfare.
• The reported destruction of Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drones by Russian FPVs indicates a specific tactical focus on countering these assets.
• The Russian MoD's claimed high numbers of intercepted Ukrainian UAVs and munitions, if accurate, could indicate a significant volume of Ukrainian strike activity or improved Russian air defense capabilities, though the number of downed drones is notably higher than previous Ukrainian reporting.
• The report of Russian infantry attacks and gains in Loknya (Sudzha area) is a key indicator of ongoing localized ground offensive operations in the Kursk border region by Russian forces.
• The new video showing extensive Ukrainian FPV drone use for liquidating Russian personnel indicates continued high operational tempo for these units and a focus on inflicting personnel losses.
• The reported apparent abandonment of a wounded soldier in a Russian video, if verified, is a concerning indicator of potential ethical failures within some Russian units.
• The Russian claim that Zelenskyy has agreed to a temporary ceasefire and negotiations, if unverified, is a significant information operation indicator aimed at creating a false narrative of Ukrainian weakness or willingness to capitulate.
• Donald Trump's reported statement calling Ukrainian demands for territorial return "ridiculous" is a significant indicator of a potential shift in US stance under a possible future administration, aligning with Russia's territorial claims and potentially undermining international support for Ukraine's territorial integrity.
• The continued showcasing of North Korean soldiers and their alleged effectiveness by Russian sources is an indicator of direct foreign involvement and an attempt to leverage this in information operations.

Updated Situation: High-intensity ground combat continues, particularly on the Pokrovsk and Toretsk axes, where Russian forces are conducting numerous assaults and mechanized attacks, and in the Southern Donetsk direction near Bohatyr. Fighting also continues on the Zaporizhzhia front, with Russian forces claiming to be destroying Ukrainian infantry near Robotyne and Orikhiv. The Kursk border region remains an active area of conflict, with ongoing clashes and shelling and confirmed Ukrainian presence fighting against Russian and North Korean forces, though Russia claims complete liberation and rout of Ukrainian forces in this area and is reporting active infantry attacks and gains in the village of Loknya. A significant development is the confirmed use of a new, faster Russian loitering munition, the "Banderol," potentially indicating a shift in Russian drone warfare capabilities. Information operations surrounding alleged Ukrainian terrorism in Russia and the situation in Kursk remain key focuses for Moscow, with Russia actively promoting a narrative of successful "liberation" in Kursk Oblast. Ukraine continues diplomatic efforts and highlights the severity of the conflict through events like the commemoration of the Chernobyl disaster. Russian military bloggers are actively fundraising for specific equipment for units on the Zaporizhzhia front and special forces units, suggesting these remain areas of focus for future Russian operations or are experiencing significant equipment needs. There are continued indicators of potential Ukrainian deep operations within Russia, including alleged intelligence gathering. Internal issues within Russian military units, particularly "Storm Z" units, are being reported, highlighting potential systemic weaknesses. Both sides are continuing to adapt their tactics and technology, including in the use of drones and counter-drone measures, with Ukrainian FPV drone use remaining highly effective in targeting Russian personnel. The political environment remains complex, with differing views on peace terms and ongoing efforts to shape narratives and influence international support. New air raid alerts are active across multiple oblasts due to ongoing Russian UAV activity, with specific alerts for Zhytomyr and work by air defense in Kyiv Oblast. Russian sources are disseminating claims about Zelenskyy agreeing to a ceasefire and negotiations, which requires verification, and Donald Trump's reported stance on Ukrainian territorial demands aligns with Russia's position. North Korean military involvement on the Russian side continues to be highlighted by Russian sources.