Operational Situation Update - April 26, 2025 (Further Night/Early Morning Updates, Ninth Analysis)
Key Developments and Assessments (Analysis of New Information)
The incoming messages provide several crucial updates, primarily reinforcing the ongoing Russian drone attack on Ukraine and introducing new Russian information operations related to alleged Ukrainian actions in Russia's border regions.
The report from 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) and РБК-Україна confirming a Russian drone strike on a nine-story residential building in Kamianske, resulting in fires and preliminary casualties (3 injured, including a child) is a significant and confirmed event. This directly impacts civilian infrastructure and highlights the indiscriminate nature of such attacks.
Updated tracking from Повітряні Сили ЗС України and Николаевский Ванёк indicates the continued westward movement of remaining Russian UAVs. Bpla in the Yahotyn area (Kyiv Oblast) and near Kaniv (Cherkasy/Kyiv border) on a westward course, along with drones on the border of Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts moving towards Kyiv Oblast, and new Shaheds in Sumy Oblast, point to a persistent threat, with Kyiv region potentially becoming a focus. Further refinement from Николаевский Ванёк details 1 drone near the Kyiv/Cherkasy border heading towards Vinnytsia Oblast, 4 in northern Poltava Oblast heading west, and 2 circling east of Konotop. This granular tracking is essential for air defense resource allocation and targeted warnings.
Russian sources are introducing new claims and expanding on previous ones. ТАСС, citing the "Sever" grouping, reiterates and expands on the claim that Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drones attacked firefighters extinguishing a fire at the "New Jerusalem" temple complex in Belgorod Oblast, and adds that rescue work for icons is impossible due to the threat of new Ukrainian shelling. This reinforces the narrative of Ukrainian targeting of civilian responders and cultural/religious sites, likely for propaganda purposes.
Colonelcassad disseminates a video featuring a resident of Cherkasskoye Porechnoye (Kursk Oblast) providing testimony of alleged Ukrainian "atrocities" during Ukrainian military operations in the region in August 2024. The resident claims Ukrainian forces indiscriminately shelled and shot at houses, used drones to set fires and kill people attempting to flee, and engaged in looting. This is a clear information operation aimed at portraying Ukrainian forces as brutal and criminal, likely intended to justify Russian actions and galvanize domestic support. The timing of this information release, coinciding with ongoing cross-border activity, is notable.
ТАСС also reports on the investigation into the vehicle explosion that killed Moskalik, stating the car had 7 previous owners and was deregistered in January 2025. This detail, while seemingly minor, could be presented by Russian authorities as evidence of a complex plot and potentially linked to Ukrainian intelligence, although the message itself does not explicitly make this link.
Finally, reports from Игорь Артамонов (Head of Lipetsk Oblast) and 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 indicate the cancellation of "yellow level" air danger in Lipetsk Oblast and the cancellation of the air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, respectively. This indicates a reduction or cessation of immediate air threats in those specific regions following previous alerts or perceived threats.
In summary, the new information confirms the civilian impact of the ongoing Russian drone attack, refines tracking of remaining threats, introduces new Russian claims of Ukrainian targeting of responders and alleged past "atrocities" in border regions (likely information operations), provides a small update on an investigation into a vehicle explosion, and indicates the lifting of air danger alerts in two Russian and Ukrainian oblasts.
Air and Strategic Domain (Latest Updates)
- Russian Drone Activity: Ongoing attack with updated tracking and impacts. Bpla in the Yahotyn area of Kyiv Oblast and on the border with Cherkasy Oblast near Kaniv, both on a westward course. Bpla on the border of Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts moving towards Kyiv Oblast, and new Shaheds in Sumy Oblast. Further refined tracking indicates: 1 drone near the Kyiv/Cherkasy border heading towards Vinnytsia Oblast, 4 in northern Poltava Oblast heading west, and 2 circling east of Konotop. Previous tracking indicated: 1 over Dnipro (engaged), 2 towards/through Cherkasy, 1 towards/through Smila, 3 new UAVs past Okhtyrka towards Poltava Oblast, 2 near Konotop, 1 circling south of Shostka. 1 UAV from Poltava Oblast towards Cherkasy Oblast, 1 in southern Chernihiv Oblast heading to Kyiv Oblast, and new Shaheds in Sumy Oblast. 1 UAV damaged a mobile communication tower in Lipniazhska hromada, Novoukrainskyi raion, Kirovohrad Oblast. Consolidated previous report detailed specific Shahed movements: 2 near Kamianske (westbound), 2 approaching Dnipro, 1 towards Pokrovsk, 2 in Pavlohrad area, 7 at Kharkiv/Poltava intersection (southbound), 4 towards/through Lubny, 2 near Lebedyn. Ukrainian Air Force alerted Poltava and Lubny regarding drone threat. The "red level" threat of UAV attack was cancelled in Lipetsk City, but the "yellow level" of aerial danger remains across Lipetsk Oblast. Strike UAVs were reported to have transferred from Kharkiv Oblast to Cherkasy Oblast.
- Impact Assessment: Damage to warehouse premises reported in Kropyvnytskyi from a drone strike, no initial casualties (Previous report). Several explosions reported in Dnipro, likely related to ongoing drone activity (Previous report). A Russian UAV damaged a mobile communication tower in Lipniazhska hromada, Novoukrainskyi raion, Kirovohrad Oblast; no casualties reported (Previous report). A Russian drone hit a nine-story residential building in Kamianske, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, resulting in fires and preliminary reports of 3 injured, including a child.
- Russian Strikes: A ZALA Lancet strike allegedly destroyed an American M198 howitzer near Olhivka, Kharkiv Oblast (Russian claim with video - Previous report).
- Ukrainian Actions (Alleged by Russia): Russian sources claim Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drones attacked firefighters extinguishing a fire at the "New Jerusalem" temple complex in Belgorod Oblast. Russian sources also claim that rescue work for icons at the temple is impossible due to the threat of new Ukrainian shelling.
Frontline Operations (Latest Updates)
- No new information regarding ground combat operations from the provided messages. Previous reports detailed intense fighting on multiple axes, particularly Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk, and the Kursk/Sumy border zone.
Capabilities, Logistics, and Personnel (Latest Updates)
- Ukrainian Capabilities: Ukrainian Air Force and ground observers continue to provide detailed tracking of Russian drone movements, enabling responsive air defense alerts. Ukrainian forces continue to operate mobile communication networks, which are being targeted. If the Russian claim is true, Ukrainian forces may be employing drones to target Russian response efforts to incidents within Russia.
- Russian Capabilities: Russia continues to demonstrate the capability for widespread, multi-vector drone attacks with adaptable trajectories, now confirmed to be directly impacting civilian residential buildings. Russian forces on the Toretsk axis continue tactical assaults against fortified Ukrainian positions (Previous report). The presence of the 155th Separate Guards Marine Infantry Brigade in Kursk Oblast indicates the commitment or positioning of capable, experienced units in the border region (Previous report). Russian forces continue to employ Lancet loitering munitions against Ukrainian artillery (Previous report). Russian information operations leverage tactical strike videos and statements from experts to promote their effectiveness (Previous report). Russian capabilities in information warfare include disseminating detailed (though unverified) claims of Ukrainian targeting of responders and producing extensive historical testimony as propaganda.
- Russian Personnel/Losses: The report on the Moskalik vehicle explosion notes the investigation details of the vehicle, which could be presented as evidence in a Russian investigation.
Political, Diplomatic, and Information Environment (Latest Updates)
- Russian IO/Narratives: Russian sources are actively using tactical videos and blaming Ukraine for damage to reinforce their narratives (Previous report). Russian sources are claiming Ukrainian drones targeted firefighters and hindered rescue efforts in Belgorod Oblast, portraying Ukrainian forces negatively and justifying further actions. Russian sources are disseminating alleged testimony from a resident of Kursk Oblast describing Ukrainian "atrocities," including indiscriminate shelling, shooting, drone attacks killing civilians, and looting, likely for propaganda purposes to demonize Ukrainian forces and garner domestic support. Russian state media (TASS) is citing military experts to support claims of Russian pressure in the border regions (Loknya, Hornal - Previous report). Russian milbloggers (Colonelcassad) are using visual content to showcase military activity and likely boost morale (Previous report). The "combat coordination exercises" framing is part of this narrative (Previous report). Information operation leverages AI to "revive" the voices of WWII veterans, specifically highlighting the death of General Vatutin by "Ukrainian Nazis from UPA," aimed at historical revisionism and delegitimizing Ukrainian forces (Previous report). Lavrov's statements to CBS emphasize Russia's claimed "serious proposals" for settlement and frame Ukraine's public discussion of negotiations as impolite, attempting to shift blame for lack of diplomatic progress (Previous report). Дональд Трамп's statements claiming productive talks, proximity to a deal, and most major points agreed, and his call for high-level meetings, are being amplified by Russian sources, serving to promote the narrative that peace is within reach and potentially portray Ukraine as an obstacle if they do not accept proposed terms (Previous report). Russian military expert Marochko's claim that Kyiv is intentionally burning out Vovchansk infrastructure is a clear information operation to blame Ukraine for the destruction (Previous report). A TASS report on potential fraud schemes related to passport data is a domestic Russian issue, but reflects broader information security concerns (Previous report). Russian sources are claiming Ukrainian drones attacked firefighters in Belgorod Oblast, which serves their narrative of Ukrainian targeting of civilians/responders. Russian sources are using the investigation into the Moskalik death to suggest a complex plot, potentially linking it to Ukraine.
- Ukrainian Stance: President Зеленський warns of Путін's expansionist ambitions beyond Ukraine, citing potential historical claims on Polish, Hungarian, and other territories, aiming to garner broader regional support and counter Russian narratives (Previous report).
- Diplomatic Stance: Lavrov states Russia is putting forward "serious proposals" for a settlement and that negotiations are ongoing, but criticizes Zelenskyy for discussing details publicly (Previous report). Дональд Трамп claims to have had productive talks with Russia and Ukraine, states they are very close to a deal with most major points agreed, and calls for high-level meetings to finalize it (Previous report).
Human Oversight and Decision Authority (Latest Updates)
Human command is evident in the responsive air defense alerts issued by the Ukrainian Air Force and local authorities based on real-time drone tracking and the response of emergency services (firefighters, medical personnel) to the drone strike on the residential building in Kamianske. Decisions regarding air threat levels and cancellations in Russian regions (Lipetsk Oblast) and Ukrainian regions (Zaporizhzhia Oblast) are made by human authorities (Previous report). The deployment and training of the 155th Marine Infantry Brigade in Kursk Oblast involves human command and planning at multiple levels (Previous report). Russian information operations, such as those involving AI-generated veteran voices, official statements on negotiations, expert commentary, claims of Ukrainian targeting of responders, and the dissemination of alleged testimony regarding "atrocities," are directed and managed by human authorities (Previous report). Ukrainian political leadership (President Zelenskyy) is actively shaping diplomatic narratives and public messaging (Previous report). The claimed targeting of firefighters by Ukrainian drones in Belgorod Oblast, if confirmed, would indicate human decision-making at a tactical level regarding the use of drones. Human authorities are conducting the investigation into the Moskalik vehicle explosion in Russia.
Cybersecurity and Information Assurance (Latest Updates)
Information is being disseminated regarding real-time drone movements (Николаевский Ванёк, UA Air Force, Lipetsk Oblast head, Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration). Russian sources are using video (Toretsk axis, Kursk Oblast exercises, Lancet strike), photos (Kursk Oblast), and potentially AI-generated video/audio (Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны) to promote tactical successes, unit presence, and historical narratives (Previous report). Russian state media (TASS) is being used to disseminate expert commentary supporting Russian military actions and official diplomatic positions, and to report on potential fraud related to passport data (Previous report). Ukrainian sources (РБК-Україна via Суспільне) report on the impact of Russian strikes (explosions in Dnipro, damage in Kirovohrad Oblast). Ukrainian leadership is actively using interviews and public statements to shape international perceptions (Previous report). Дональд Трамп's statements are being disseminated via social media and picked up by various news sources and Russian military bloggers (Previous report). Information regarding the drone strike on the residential building in Kamianske is being disseminated by Ukrainian regional authorities and news sources. The Russian claim of Ukrainian drones targeting firefighters is being disseminated by Russian military sources (Sever grouping) and state media (TASS). Russian sources are using military blogger channels (Colonelcassad) and potentially international platforms for the dissemination of alleged historical testimony as propaganda. Information related to the Moskalik investigation is being disseminated via state media (TASS). Air danger cancellation messages are being disseminated via official channels.
Learning and Adaptation (Latest Updates)
Ukrainian forces continue to adapt their real-time monitoring and alerting systems to the ongoing Russian drone campaign, providing detailed tracking updates. Russian forces continue to adapt their tactical approaches on the ground and in the information space (Previous report). The reported movements of Russian drones continue to show adaptable trajectories and targeting, now including confirmed strikes on civilian residential buildings. Russia is also adapting its information operations to leverage external political statements that support its narratives (Previous report). If the Russian claim is accurate, Ukrainian forces may be adapting their drone usage to target Russian response efforts. Russian information operations are adapting to use alleged historical testimony as a tool for propaganda, particularly related to cross-border incidents.
Resource Allocation and Logistics (Latest Updates)
Resources are allocated to ongoing air defense operations in response to confirmed drone threats across multiple oblasts. Tactical resources (personnel, possibly drones/artillery) are being employed on the Toretsk axis and in the Sumy/Kursk border regions (Previous report). The presence of a unit like the 155th Marine Infantry Brigade in Kursk indicates a significant allocation of personnel and equipment resources to that area (Previous report). Resources are also being allocated to information operations (Previous report). Resources were utilized in the Lancet strike against the Ukrainian M198 howitzer (Previous report). A small resource was allocated to target the mobile communication tower in Kirovohrad Oblast (Previous report). Resources are being allocated to emergency response (firefighting, medical) following the drone strike on the residential building in Kamianske. Resources are being allocated to the investigation into the Moskalik vehicle explosion.
Potential Indicators (Latest Updates)
- Sustained and Refined Tracking of Russian Drones: The detailed tracking updates of remaining Russian drones moving west and towards Kyiv, including specific numbers and locations, indicate a persistent and evolving aerial threat that Ukrainian forces are actively monitoring and responding to.
- Confirmation of Civilian Residential Building Strike and Casualties: The confirmed Russian drone strike on a nine-story residential building in Kamianske resulting in injuries, including a child, is a MAJOR INDICATOR of the continued direct impact of Russian attacks on civilians and potential war crimes.
- Amplification of Russian Claims Regarding Ukrainian Actions in Belgorod: The repeated Russian claims of Ukrainian drones targeting firefighters and hindering rescue efforts in Belgorod, framed as preventing the saving of icons, are a significant information operation aimed at portraying Ukrainian forces negatively and justifying Russian actions. This is a MAJOR INDICATOR of the direction of Russian propaganda.
- Dissemination of Alleged Historical Testimony as Anti-Ukrainian Propaganda: The release of a video featuring a resident's testimony of alleged Ukrainian "atrocities" in Kursk Oblast during a past operation indicates a deliberate information operation to demonize Ukrainian forces and likely support narratives related to current cross-border activities. This is a MAJOR INDICATOR of Russian propaganda tactics.
- Russian Investigation Details Released on Moskalik Death: The release of specific details about the vehicle involved in the Moskalik explosion, while seemingly factual, could be an indicator of Russia laying groundwork to link the incident to Ukraine through a complex plot narrative.
- Cancellation of Air Danger in Lipetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts: The lifting of air danger alerts indicates a temporary cessation of perceived or confirmed aerial threats in those specific regions, allowing for a brief return to normal activities.
- Persistence of Previous Indicators: The significance of previous indicators, such as sustained intensity on frontlines, political maneuvering around peace talks, and information operations, remains relevant as part of the broader operational environment.
Updated Situation: The ongoing Russian drone attack continues to impact Ukraine, with confirmed direct hits on civilian residential infrastructure, specifically a nine-story building in Kamianske, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, resulting in civilian casualties. Remaining drone threats are being tracked moving westward and towards the Kyiv region from northern and central vectors. Russian sources are amplifying claims of Ukrainian drones targeting firefighters and hindering rescue efforts in Belgorod, while also disseminating alleged historical testimony of Ukrainian "atrocities" in border regions as part of information operations. Details are being released on the investigation into a vehicle explosion in Russia. Air danger alerts have been cancelled in Lipetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. The broader operational environment continues to be characterized by intense fighting on key frontlines, complex diplomatic signaling, and active information operations from all sides, with a confirmed direct human cost to civilians from recent Russian strikes.
