Archived operational intelligence briefing
The most recent information continues to focus on the ongoing Russian drone attack, providing updated tracking and impact assessments. Additionally, there are significant new inputs on the political and information fronts, particularly concerning potential peace negotiations and strategic messaging from key figures.
The updated report from Повітряні Сили ЗС України provides critical real-time tracking of remaining Russian strike UAVs: 1 over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (near Pavlohrad heading to Dnipro), several groups from Poltava Oblast towards Cherkasy Oblast, 1 in southern Chernihiv Oblast heading to Kyiv Oblast, and new Shaheds in Sumy Oblast. This confirms a continued, albeit dispersed, aerial threat across multiple central and northern regions. Николаевский Ванёк's update further refines this, specifying 1 UAV over Dnipro (being engaged), 2 towards/through Cherkasy, 1 towards/through Smila, 3 new UAVs flying past Okhtyrka towards Poltava Oblast, 2 near Konotop, and 1 circling south of Shostka. This level of detail is crucial for targeted air defense responses and civilian alerts. The report from РБК-Україна of a Russian UAV damaging a mobile communication tower in Lipniazhska hromada, Novoukrainskyi raion, Kirovohrad Oblast, with no casualties, provides concrete evidence of the impact of this wave of drone attacks, indicating potential targeting of communication infrastructure in addition to energy and military assets.
On the political front, Дональд Трамп's statements (via Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны), particularly his claim of a "good day in talks and meetings with Russia and Ukraine," that the parties are "very close to a deal" with "most of the major points... agreed to," and his call for high-level meetings to "finish it off," represent a significant information event. This directly contradicts previous reports of stalled ministerial-level talks and suggests a separate or parallel negotiation track involving Trump. His assertion that a deal is imminent, coupled with his earlier statements about Ukraine needing to make concessions, frames the current situation as on the cusp of resolution based on terms potentially unfavorable to Ukraine's maximalist position. This messaging serves to create pressure on Ukraine and potentially influence international perceptions of the conflict's trajectory. The fact that Russian military bloggers are amplifying these statements highlights their utility in the Russian information operation to portray Ukraine as the obstacle to peace.
Зеленський's interview with Бен Шапіро (РБК-Україна), where he warns of Путін's expansionist ambitions beyond Ukraine, citing potential historical claims on Polish, Hungarian, and other territories, serves as a counter-narrative to Russian attempts to frame the conflict as limited to Ukraine. This message is aimed at galvanizing international support, particularly among neighboring countries, by emphasizing the broader regional threat posed by Russia. It directly challenges the Russian historical revisionism highlighted in previous messages (e.g., the Vatutin narrative) by portraying Putin's use of history as a justification for future aggression.
The video from Colonelcassad showing a ZALA Lancet strike on an American M198 howitzer near Olhivka, Kharkiv Oblast, provides visual evidence of continued Russian targeting of Ukrainian and NATO-supplied artillery assets. The accompanying text's emphasis on the M198's range and vulnerability due to weight and low mobility is a common Russian information tactic to highlight the destruction of Western equipment and portray their capabilities as superior in counter-battery fire.
Finally, the report from ТАСС regarding fraudsters potentially stealing passport data under the guise of employment or photocopying is a domestic Russian security/crime issue and does not directly impact the military situation, but it does reflect a general concern for personal data security, which has tangential relevance in a conflict environment where information security is paramount. Марочко's claim (ТАСС) that Kyiv is "intentionally burning out the surviving infrastructure of Vovchansk" is a clear instance of Russian information operation, attempting to shift blame for the destruction in Vovchansk, which has been heavily contested and subjected to intense Russian shelling and air strikes, onto Ukrainian forces.
In summary, the new information indicates a continuation of the Russian drone campaign with a focus now shifting towards central and northern Ukraine, alongside ongoing Russian tactical efforts to target Ukrainian artillery. More significantly, Дональд Трамп's statements are a major development in the political/information sphere, suggesting potential progress towards a negotiated settlement (on terms likely favorable to Russia per his previous statements) and creating pressure on Ukraine, while Зеленський is countering the Russian narrative by highlighting the broader regional threat posed by Путін's expansionist agenda. Russian sources are actively using tactical videos and blaming Ukraine for damage to reinforce their narratives.
Human command is evident in the responsive air defense alerts issued by the Ukrainian Air Force based on real-time drone tracking and the reported explosions in Dnipro. Decisions regarding air threat levels and cancellations in Russian regions (Lipetsk Oblast) are made by human authorities. The deployment and training of the 155th Marine Infantry Brigade in Kursk Oblast involves human command and planning at multiple levels. Russian information operations, such as those involving AI-generated veteran voices, official statements on negotiations, and expert commentary, are directed and managed by human authorities. Ukrainian political leadership (President Zelenskyy) is actively shaping diplomatic narratives and public messaging.
Information is being disseminated regarding real-time drone movements (Николаевский Ванёк, UA Air Force, Lipetsk Oblast head). Russian sources are using video (Toretsk axis, Kursk Oblast exercises, Lancet strike), photos (Kursk Oblast), and potentially AI-generated video/audio (Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны) to promote tactical successes, unit presence, and historical narratives. Russian state media (TASS) is being used to disseminate expert commentary supporting Russian military actions and official diplomatic positions, and now to report on potential fraud related to passport data. Ukrainian sources (РБК-Україна via Суспільне) report on the impact of Russian strikes (explosions in Dnipro, damage in Kirovohrad Oblast). Ukrainian leadership is actively using interviews and public statements to shape international perceptions. Дональд Трамп's statements are being disseminated via social media and picked up by various news sources and Russian military bloggers.
Ukrainian forces continue to adapt their real-time monitoring and alerting systems to the ongoing Russian drone campaign, providing detailed tracking updates. Russian forces continue to adapt their tactical approaches on the ground and in the information space, as highlighted by the claims regarding the 102nd regiment's actions, the sustained pressure in the border regions, the targeting of Ukrainian artillery with loitering munitions, and the new AI-driven information operations. The reported movements of Russian drones continue to show adaptable trajectories and targeting. Russia is also adapting its information operations to leverage external political statements that support its narratives.
Resources are allocated to ongoing air defense operations in response to confirmed drone threats across multiple oblasts. Tactical resources (personnel, possibly drones/artillery) are being employed on the Toretsk axis and in the Sumy/Kursk border regions. The presence of a unit like the 155th Marine Infantry Brigade in Kursk indicates a significant allocation of personnel and equipment resources to that area. Resources are also being allocated to information operations, including the production of content like the AI-generated veteran videos, tactical videos, and expert commentary. Resources were utilized in the Lancet strike against the Ukrainian M198 howitzer. A small resource was allocated to target the mobile communication tower in Kirovohrad Oblast.
Updated Situation: The ongoing Russian drone attack continues with reported movements and engagement across several oblasts, including Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Kyiv, and Sumy, with confirmed damage to communication infrastructure in Kirovohrad Oblast. Russian forces also continue tactical engagements, including alleged successful Lancet strikes on Ukrainian artillery in the Kharkiv region. In a significant political development, Дональд Трамп publicly claimed productive talks with Russia and Ukraine, stating they are close to a deal and urging high-level meetings to finalize it, a narrative being amplified by Russian sources. This is contrasted by Президент Зеленський's warning that Путін's ambitions extend beyond Ukraine and include potential claims on neighboring countries, framing the conflict as part of a broader regional threat. Russia continues its information operations, including blaming Ukraine for damage in contested areas and utilizing AI to support historical narratives. The confluence of ongoing military activity, potentially impactful diplomatic maneuvering (even if through non-traditional channels), and competing information operations defines the current operational environment.
We only use optional analytics cookies if you allow them. Necessary cookies stay on for sign-in and site security.
Learn more in our Privacy Policy.
