Archived operational intelligence briefing
Russian forces are currently conducting a large-scale, multi-vector UAV and missile attack affecting central, eastern, southern, and northern Ukraine. Real-time data indicates significant Shahed drone activity across Kharkiv, Sumy, Poltava, Chernihiv, Kyiv, Zhytomyr, and Cherkasy Oblasts. Strike UAVs are presently over Kharkiv city, with multiple explosions confirmed, including impacts resulting in fires on enterprise territory in Kharkiv's Slobidskyi district. Further groups of Shaheds are reported moving southwest from Sumy Oblast, towards Chernihiv and Poltava Oblasts, and from north Chernihiv Oblast towards Kyiv and Zhytomyr Oblasts. Shaheds are also reported in northern Poltava Oblast moving southwest, and a threat is active in Cherkasy Oblast (Cherkaskyi, Zolotoniskyi districts), with a large group of approximately 23 drones reported near Pryluky heading southwest towards Cherkasy Oblast. Five drones are approaching Kharkiv from Belgorod, and six are moving past Slavutych towards Kyiv Oblast, with 6 now reported transferring from northern Kyiv Oblast into Zhytomyr Oblast. Eight drones were heading from Sumy Oblast towards/through Pryluky. An air danger regime has been introduced in all of Lipetsk Oblast, Russia. Earlier alerts indicated a MiG-31K airborne, posing a nationwide Kinzhal threat, strategic aviation activity (6 TU-95ms), Kalibr missile launches (including a new group via Kherson), and various missile/KAB/KAR launches targeting multiple regions.
Earlier today (approx. 03:14 UTC), a large Russian attack involved Kalibr, ballistic (estimated ~6 Iskander-M/KN-23 on Kyiv, ~2 on Pavlohrad), and strategic aviation cruise missiles (~6 on Kyiv, ~3 on Kharkiv, ~3 on Pavlohrad), and widespread Shaheds. Impacts were confirmed in Kyiv, Kharkiv, Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, and Pavlohrad. Consequences in Kyiv included 9 killed and 63 injured (42 hospitalized, including 6 children and a pregnant woman) with significant damage to residential buildings (fire, partial destruction, potential trapped individuals), non-residential premises, cars, and garages across multiple districts, particularly Sviatoshynskyi. Drone debris fell in Podilskyi and Desnyanskyi districts. Kharkiv sustained damage to private houses and a production enterprise, with 2 injured confirmed from a strike on a densely populated residential area. Pavlohrad was hit multiple times by missiles and drones. Temporary flight restrictions were lifted at Kaluga and Zhukovsky airports but imposed at Nizhny Novgorod, Kazan, and Ulyanovsk airports in Russia.
Earlier (Apr 21-22), a Russian attack utilized Onyx, Kh-31P, and 96 Strike UAVs, resulting in 42 Shahed-type UAVs and 47 "Imitator Drones" intercepted or neutralized by EW. Impacts were noted in Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Cherkasy, and Kherson Oblasts.
Ukrainian forces conducted a combined strike on multiple locations across occupied Crimea, causing widespread explosions (Sevastopol, Simferopol, Armyansk, Dzhankoy, Saky, Yevpatoriya). The Ukrainian General Staff confirmed a strike on the UAV production plant in Yelabuga, Tatarstan (1054 km from border), claiming hits and damage to the final assembly workshop. Ongoing detonations at the 51st GRAU arsenal in Kirzhach, Vladimir Oblast, following a likely Ukrainian deep strike on April 22, continue, with an estimated 1 sq km damaged by extensive forest fires. Ukrainian border guards reportedly destroyed a Russian radar station on the Northern direction using FPV drones.
Russian Kalibr missile carriers remain active in the Black Sea, confirmed participating in the current strike wave. A new group was reported entering via Kherson Oblast. Earlier reports indicated potentially up to 6 Kalibr carriers were deployed (Apr 21). Two Kalibr carriers (up to 12 missiles total) are active in the Mediterranean Sea alongside one other warship. The Sea of Azov remains free of enemy vessels. Russia continues to disable AIS in the Kerch Strait, violating SOLAS protocols. Widespread explosions across occupied Crimea due to a Ukrainian combined strike likely targeted naval and military infrastructure.
High-intensity combat continues across multiple active axes. The Pokrovsk axis remains the area of highest intensity, with 43 Russian attempts recorded today following 53 yesterday. Russian forces claim resuming envelopment efforts near Selydove and the liberation of Bogdanovka (Donetsk People's Republic). Ukrainian General Staff reports significant Russian personnel and equipment losses on this axis today (349 personnel, 7 vehicles, etc.).
On the Toretsk axis, 25 Russian attacks were reported today. Russian forces confirm control of Sukha Balka and claim successful advances near Tarasivka, towards Nelepivka, and entering Dachne. DeepState assesses the enemy is developing success southwest of Toretsk, occupying Panteleymonivka, Valentynivka, almost all of Sukha Balka, assaulting Romanivka, and attempting a flanking maneuver around Shcherbynivka, describing the situation as "critical". Latest reports indicate Russian units continue attacking north of Dzerzhinsk towards Dyleevka and are engaged in fighting within Dyleevka/Dachne. Ukrainian police drone and bodycam video depicts successful elimination of Russian personnel in close combat in this sector.
On the Kursk/Sumy Border Zone, Ukrainian operations continue in Kursk Oblast, repelling 27 Russian assaults today (with 2 ongoing), following 23 yesterday. Russian MoD claims continuing operations to neutralize Ukrainian forces, inflicting over 150 personnel losses and equipment damage today, and claims strikes on detected temporary deployment areas of Ukrainian territorial defense in Novodmitrovka (Sumy). Russian sources claim intensive fighting near Hornal, attempting to push Ukrainian forces out, nearing clearing operations in Oleshnia, and claim destroying a large concentration of Ukrainian equipment near Korovintsy (Sumy) using Iskander and Tornado-M. Ukrainian drone units remain active. Shoigu has stated the entire territory of Kursk region will be "cleared" soon.
Other active axes include Lyman (20 attacks today, 4 ongoing), Siversk (9 attempts stopped, 3 ongoing), Novopavlivsk (13 actions stopped today, 1 ongoing), and Zaporizhzhia (3 attempts today, 1 ongoing). Russian forces claim advances towards Bohatyr/Otradne (Novopavlivsk), disrupting Ukrainian rotation, and advances near Kam'yans'ke/Dniprorudne (Zaporizhzhia). Increased Russian assault activity is reported on the Zaporizhzhia axis, with Ukrainian intelligence assessing troop transfers for expected intensification. On the Kupyansk axis, Russian sources claim disrupting a Ukrainian rotation near Mala Shapkovka (Kharkiv Oblast) with attributed Ukrainian losses (12 soldiers, 1 vehicle). Marinka is confirmed under firm Russian control, extensively destroyed and heavily mined.
Russian forces are utilizing UAVs (including incendiary) and coordinating ground assaults with drone support. Russian sources claim successful use of EW to counter Ukrainian FPV drones during an assault near Pokrovsk.
The ongoing Russian UAV and missile attack is causing significant civilian casualties and damage. Latest confirmed casualties in Kyiv are 9 killed and 63 injured (including six children and a pregnant woman), with extensive damage to residential buildings, non-residential premises, cars, and garages across multiple districts. Rescue operations in Sviatoshynskyi and other districts continue with people potentially trapped under rubble. Drone debris fell in Podilskyi and Desnyanskyi districts. In Kharkiv, multiple Shahed impacts have occurred tonight, causing damage to private and multi-story homes and a production enterprise, with 2 injured confirmed from a strike on a residential area. Latest reports indicate several impacts on enterprise territory in Kharkiv's Slobidskyi district, resulting in fires; information regarding casualties is being clarified.
Recent attacks include the mass casualty event in Marhanets (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast) with 9 killed and 54 injured (31 hospitalized, 4 serious) from a Russian FPV drone striking a civilian bus. Other civilian casualties have been reported across various oblasts from shelling and drone attacks. Critical energy infrastructure supplying Kherson city has been destroyed by sustained Russian attacks. A Russian drone strike previously hit a hospital in Kostiantynivka.
On the Russian side, Governor Gladkov reported that the "New Jerusalem" temple complex in Sukarevo, Belgorod Oblast, was completely burned down due to an alleged Ukrainian drone attack, but no casualties were reported. Russian sources continue to claim extensive damage to civilian housing in Bryansk Oblast (~56 houses destroyed claimed) and civilian casualties in Belgorod and occupied territories from alleged Ukrainian attacks.
The return of the body of Ukrainian journalist Viktoria Roshchina, reportedly killed in Russian captivity, with confirmed signs of torture and cruel treatment, is being investigated as a war crime, raising serious human rights and ethical concerns. Allegations of Russian security services torturing activists internally persist. ASTRA reports an alleged suggestion by a BARS-Kursk deputy commander of extrajudicial killing of captured Ukrainian "punishers," which raises serious concerns about potential war crimes. A report from the mother of a Russian "Storm Z" soldier highlights severe issues with personnel management, alleged mistreatment of convict recruits (beatings before signing documents), very high casualty rates (40/600 survivors), and difficulties obtaining military benefits and documentation, raising significant human rights concerns within the Russian armed forces.
Ukrainian forces continue to employ effective air defense and electronic warfare (confirmed 67 strike UAVs intercepted, 47 imitators neutralized from a previous attack; 4 Shaheds downed over Dnipropetrovsk reported recently). Drone operations remain critical for reconnaissance, strikes (FPV, anti-armor, anti-personnel, remote mining), and supply delivery. Ukraine successfully conducted a long-range strike on the Yelabuga UAV plant in Tatarstan, demonstrating deep strike capability against military-industrial targets. The Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports units on the Zaporizhzhia front received substantial aid including vehicles, drones, EW systems, and detectors. The Ministry of Defense project "Contract 18-24" has expanded participating brigades to recruit younger personnel for high-intensity combat units. Ukraine is seeking alternatives to Starlink. Ukrainian units are employing new or adapted equipment such as the Bohdana SPG on a Tatra Force 8x8 chassis. Sweden, Norway, Finland, and Lithuania are cooperating on joint CV90 procurement linked to Ukraine's needs and potential domestic production.
Russian forces maintain capabilities for sustained, multi-vector air/missile attacks, utilizing strategic aviation, Kalibr, Iskander, Tornado-S, and various UAV types (Shaheds, Lancets, recon, FPVs). Tactical aviation remains active. Russian sources claim effectiveness against Ukrainian assets, including UAV control points, launch sites, and counter-battery radars (Lancet success claimed against AN/TPQ radars). Russian units are employing drones to coordinate ground assaults and claim success using EW to counter Ukrainian FPVs. Russian forces confirmed tactical gains on the Toretsk and Pokrovsk axes and claimed gains on other fronts.
Russian reliance on volunteer/humanitarian support for equipment acquisition persists, with fundraising appeals ongoing for units like the 10th Medical Battalion and Archangel Spetsnaz for items such as thermal vision, drones, and radios, indicating potential gaps in state supply or a need for specialized items. The detailed report regarding the severe issues faced by a Russian "Storm Z" soldier (severe injury, lack of pay/pension, alleged mistreatment of prisoners) highlights significant challenges within the Russian military's personnel management, particularly regarding volunteer/convict recruitment, treatment, and support for wounded personnel. High casualty rates within these units are indicated. Russian units are reportedly using drones for supply delivery in hard-to-access areas. Russian military medical facilities are adapting to manage severe combat injuries. Russian sources indicate RU units continue attacking north of Dzerzhinsk towards Dyleevka/Dachne, utilizing their available forces.
The planned ministerial meeting in London involving Ukraine, the UK, US, France, and Germany did not occur at the ministerial level, proceeding with officials and experts. This downgrade is attributed to Ukraine's rejection of reported US proposals involving territorial concessions. Reports from the Wall Street Journal cite Ukrainian officials fearing Trump might blame Ukraine for failed peace talks and cut aid, and that Trump admitted negotiations have been more difficult than expected. US sources (White House spokeswoman, Senator Rubio via RU sources) have criticized Zelenskyy's approach and suggested Ukraine could face harsher terms if US-led talks fail. The Financial Times reports European partners may be exploring scenarios involving Ukraine ceding territory. Donald Trump's recent statements suggest he has an agreement with Russia and finds reaching one with Zelenskyy more difficult, implying he places the onus on Ukraine to accept terms. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has publicly called for Hungarians to vote against Ukraine's accession to the EU, stating it endangers Hungary's achievements and interests, linking the issue to ongoing domestic "consultations" (polling).
Ukraine's official position remains rejection of territorial concessions or a "frozen war" before a full ceasefire, emphasizing territorial integrity including Crimea. President Zelenskyy is engaged in diplomatic efforts, currently visiting South Africa to garner support for a "worthy peace" and involve G20 countries, including seeking South Africa's participation in the coalition for the return of abducted Ukrainian children. Ukraine is working to finalize a minerals agreement with the US, although it is not ready for signing this week.
Russian statements (Peskov) reiterate conditions for ending the conflict: Ukraine withdrawing forces from claimed regions, neutral status, and recognizing territorial realities. Peskov also questioned Zelenskyy's legitimacy and stated Russia is preparing for a meeting between Trump and Putin, with Trump's envoy visiting Moscow. Russian Defence Minister Shoigu stated Russia is preparing adjustments to its National Security Strategy and is hosting a security conference in Moscow in May with over 150 countries. Russian information operations promote narratives of tactical successes (Bogdanovka liberation, claimed advances), highlight Russian strikes as targeting military/industrial sites (while civilian impact is extensive), emphasize alleged Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory/civililians (Belgorod temple, Bryansk houses, casualties), utilize historical narratives (WWII links, "Hot Heart" initiative mentioning Kyiv/Leningrad), showcase military capabilities/units, and engage in targeted psychological operations (surrender leaflets with Telegram bot link). Russian propaganda actively frames Trump's statements and Western diplomatic complexities as signs of Ukrainian inflexibility and Western disunity/aid fatigue. They also attempt to undermine confidence in Ukrainian forces and narratives, including alleging sexual assault within Ukrainian forces (unverified propaganda).
Ukraine's OGP/SBU Cyber Department in a joint operation with Czech Police halted a hacker group developing and selling malware used by Russian hackers. Allegations of Russian security services torturing activists in Voronezh persist. The investigation into journalist Viktoria Roshchina's death confirmed signs of torture. Russia monitors media coverage in Central Asia and Turkey. Russia claims preventing a terrorist attack in Nizhny Novgorod, which Ukraine dismisses as staged. A resident was detained in Nizhny Novgorod on suspicion of preparing arson ("terrorist attack"). The Russian Duma plans to seize funds from "foreign agents" for military support. Russia reported detaining members of a terrorist community in Dagestan preparing an attack. Russian sources claim cyber/IO interference targeting Russian military-affiliated Telegram channels ("Archangel Spetsnaz" reporting bot activity). The air danger regime in Lipetsk Oblast indicates perceived ongoing security threats within Russia, likely from UAVs.
Ukrainian forces continue to adapt by refining drone tactics (FPV, reconnaissance, remote mining, supply delivery), enhancing air defense/EW effectiveness, expanding recruitment programs for high-intensity units, and adapting training based on combat experience. Emergency services are adapting workflows for large-scale urban rescue operations with robotic equipment.
Russian forces are adapting through refinement of drone tactics (remote mining, FPV counters, coordinating assaults, targeting specific equipment like radars), employing EW, adapting logistics (drone supply), and relying on volunteer networks to fill equipment gaps. Russian forces are also conducting high-level strategic reviews (Security Council strategy adjustment). Information operations are adapting with targeted PSYOP methods like drone-dropped surrender leaflets.
Ukraine's resource allocation is directed towards maintaining defense capabilities through international aid (US $105 billion since 2022), accelerating domestic ammunition production, recruiting personnel, and providing equipment through aid and fundraising. Significant resources are dedicated to civilian emergency response operations following Russian strikes (DSNS in Kyiv).
Russian resource allocation includes sustained military operations, though units on active fronts show reliance on volunteer/humanitarian support for specific equipment needs (thermal imagers, drones, radios) through fundraising appeals, indicating potential gaps in state supply chains. Russia is also allocating resources towards long-term social measures for war participants (planned settlements). The delay in the Ukraine-US minerals agreement, linked to frozen Russian assets, highlights complex financial factors influencing international support. Russian sources confirm that support via volunteer organizations, such as providing medical equipment to the 10th Medical Battalion, remains active.
Communication flows exist at high political levels (Zelenskyy, Trump, Putin, Shoigu, Peskov), influencing the strategic narrative and diplomatic landscape. Military communication includes official Ukrainian Air Force alerts for aerial threats, Russian MoD daily summaries, unit-level PR via Telegram, and information dissemination by Russian milbloggers. The report on the "Storm Z" soldier highlights severe communication failures and dehumanizing interactions within the Russian military bureaucracy regarding personnel welfare. Targeted information operations utilize specific channels and methods (e.g., Russian drone dropping surrender leaflets with a Telegram bot link). Cyber/IO interference targeting Russian military Telegram channels indicates ongoing efforts to disrupt communication platforms. State-level Russian communication includes public ceremonies leveraging historical narratives for patriotic messaging. Fundraising efforts by Russian volunteer groups often involve public appeals via Telegram, highlighting specific unit needs (e.g., Archangel Spetsnaz).
Human oversight remains critical at all levels. High-level political leaders (Zelenskyy, Trump, Putin) are engaged in strategic decision-making, with their public statements shaping perceptions and influencing the diplomatic environment. Reports suggest potential internal discussions within Ukraine under alleged external pressure regarding territorial concessions. In Russia, high-level command involves figures like Shoigu and direct interaction between Putin and Chechen leaders Kadyrov and Delimkhanov. The report on the "Storm Z" soldier indicates significant issues with human oversight and accountability within the Russian military command structure regarding personnel treatment and welfare. Russia is conducting high-level strategic reviews under the Security Council.
Both sides are actively engaged in the cybersecurity and information assurance domains. Ukraine conducts operations against hacker groups and works to protect sensitive data. Russia exerts state control over the information space (criminalizing "fakes," restricting access) and engages in extensive information operations (state media, milbloggers, propaganda narratives). Russian sources report bot activity targeting their military-affiliated online channels, indicating ongoing cyber/IO interference efforts. The dynamic use of UAVs presents ongoing cybersecurity challenges related to command, control, and data integrity. The use of propaganda videos, disinformation campaigns, and attempts to undermine morale (e.g., alleged sexual assault narrative) are part of the information assurance struggle.
The continuation of large-scale, multi-vector Russian air/drone attacks, particularly targeting urban centers like Kharkiv with multiple confirmed impacts on enterprises, indicates a sustained effort to degrade infrastructure and exert pressure, suggesting these attacks will likely continue. The high intensity and Russian claims of advances and liberation (Bogdanovka) on the Pokrovsk axis, combined with assessments of a critical situation on the Toretsk axis and reports of continued RU attacks towards Dyleevka/Dachne, point to Russia prioritizing offensive breakthroughs in Donbas. The significant qualitative evidence of severe issues within Russian "Storm Z" units (casualties, mistreatment, lack of support) could indicate systemic weaknesses in Russian force generation and sustainment, potentially impacting the long-term effectiveness of such units, although they are currently being used in high-intensity assaults. Continued reliance on volunteer/humanitarian fundraising for specific equipment needs for Russian frontline and special units suggests ongoing logistical or procurement challenges for certain items. The air danger regime in Lipetsk indicates Russia perceives credible threats to its deeper territory, potentially necessitating resource diversion for internal security. The complexities and reported disagreements surrounding the Ukraine-US mineral pact negotiations and broader discussions about Western aid/negotiation terms, especially coupled with critical statements from US sources and Trump's public stance, strongly indicate a potential shift in the international support landscape for Ukraine, posing a risk to the scale and consistency of future aid. Hungarian PM Orbán's public opposition to Ukraine's EU accession signals potential future challenges to Ukraine's integration path within the European Union. Shoigu's announcement of adjusting the National Security Strategy suggests Russia is preparing for potential long-term shifts in the conflict or broader geopolitical environment.
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