Archived operational intelligence briefing
Russian forces continue to employ tactical aviation in support of ground operations, with visual confirmation of strike aviation operating in the Polohy direction (Zaporizhzhia Oblast). Russian sources claim successful targeting of a former bread factory used for military purposes and a temporary deployment point of the 3rd Assault Brigade in the Borova area (Kupyansk axis) with aviation assets.
Russian Ministry of Defense claims the destruction of enemy drones over Tula Oblast, Russia. Russian sources also claim extensive damage and fires in Bryansk Oblast and civilian casualties and damage in Belgorod Oblast due to alleged Ukrainian drone attacks.
Ongoing detonations and extensive forest fires persist at the 51st GRAU arsenal in Kirzhach, Vladimir Oblast, following a likely Ukrainian deep strike on April 22, with Ukrainian sources assessing approximately 60% of the arsenal fully destroyed and other sections potentially damaged.
Naval presence in the Black Sea includes two Russian Kalibr missile carriers, with a potential total salvo capacity of 12 missiles, maintaining an elevated missile threat. Three Russian warships, including two Kalibr carriers (up to 12 missiles), are present in the Mediterranean Sea. No enemy vessels were detected in the Sea of Azov. Russia continues to disable AIS for vessels in the Kerch Strait, violating SOLAS protocols.
High-intensity combat continues across active axes.
On the Kursk/Sumy Border Zone, conflicting reports persist. Ukrainian sources claim ongoing "clearing" operations within Kursk Oblast, with assault groups securing a foothold in Hornal and clearing areas near Oleshnya. Russian sources, however, claim "Sever" Group forces are storming Hornal, attempting to liberate the area, involving units like the 22nd Motor Rifle Regiment. Russian sources also report entering Belovody and clearing adjacent woods, facing heavy Ukrainian drone activity. Ukrainian forces are reportedly establishing a new defense line east of Yunakivka and actively employing "Baba Yaga" and AZM drones for remote mining to slow Russian advances. Russian forces report using FPV operators against Ukrainian reconnaissance drones in the Kherson direction.
On the Kupyansk Axis, Russian sources claim strikes on military targets in the Borova area using aviation.
On the Lyman Axis, ISW reports confirmed Russian advances southeast of Yampolivka, with significant fighting reported near Kreminna.
On the Siversk Axis, Russian forces continue offensive actions near Hryhorivka.
On the Toretsk/Dzerzhynsk Axis, ISW confirms Russian advances near Dachne and in the southwestern outskirts of Toretsk. Russian sources claim liberation of Sukha Balka and advances near Tarasivka, pushing towards Nelepivka, and entering Dachne. Significant fighting is ongoing.
On the Pokrovsk Axis, intense fighting continues around Kotlyne, Shevchenko, Hrodivka, Novohrodivka, and Novoyelyzavetivka. Confirmed Ukrainian equipment losses (German Marder 1A3 IFV, Swedish Pbv 302 APC) to Russian FPV drones are reported in this area.
On the Southern Donetsk Direction (Novopavlivsk/Vremivka), Russian sources claim tactical advances towards Bohatyr and Otradne, increasing pressure near Razliv. They report advancing near Bohatyr (claiming a 300m zone increase), using drone operators to stop Ukrainian counter-attacks, and claim to have complicated Ukrainian logistics towards Otradne. Russian sources claim Ukrainian personnel losses (up to 49) in this area.
On the Zaporizhzhia Axis, significant fighting is reported near Kamyanske, Stepove, Nesteryanka, Myrne, and Verbove. Map analysis suggests possible Ukrainian counteroffensive activity near Robotyne. Russian air support is confirmed in the Polohy direction.
On the Kherson Axis, the area remains contested. Russian sources report daily Ukrainian strikes on their side of the Dnipro and the use of FPV operators to destroy Ukrainian reconnaissance drones.
Recent Russian UAV attacks have caused significant civilian casualties and damage. Attacks on Poltava City/Oblast exclusively targeted civilian infrastructure, injuring 3 civilians and damaging residential buildings, private enterprises, warehouses, and garages. A massive UAV attack overnight targeted civilian objects in Kharkiv City/Oblast, causing large-scale fires and building destruction; preliminary reports indicated no casualties, but assessment is ongoing. Earlier strikes caused casualties in Odesa (2 wounded), Zaporizhzhia (1 killed, 40 injured), and Kupyansk. The mass casualty event in Marhanets (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast), where a Russian FPV drone struck a civilian bus, resulted in 9 deaths and 43 injuries. Critical energy infrastructure supplying Kherson city was destroyed by sustained Russian attacks. Mine contamination remains a significant issue in areas like Nikopol and Marinka.
On the Russian side, Governor Gladkov reported a woman previously declared dead in Mokraya Orlovka (Belgorod) survived but was injured. Damage from recent drone/UAV attacks across multiple Belgorod settlements (private homes, roofs, facades, outbuildings, fences, cars, utilities) was detailed. Russian sources claim 1 civilian killed and at least 8 civilians wounded in Belgorod Oblast from alleged Ukrainian drone attacks targeting civilians/vehicles. They also claim extensive house fires and damage in Bryansk Oblast villages due to alleged Ukrainian drones. Claims of 2 civilians wounded near Nova Mayachka (occupied Kherson) from a vehicle attack, 5 civilians wounded (including a child) in Konstantynopil (occupied Donetsk) from shelling, and civilians wounded in Donetsk/Horlivka from ordnance detonation are reported by Russian sources.
The ongoing investigation by the Ukrainian Office of the Prosecutor General into the death of journalist Viktoria Roshchina, returned from Russian territory, confirmed signs of torture and cruel treatment.
Internal Russian reports mention an incident at a market in Voronezh involving conflict between an Azerbaijani diaspora group and a Russian vendor, leading to violence and promises to remove "illegals" and diaspora representatives, highlighting potential internal security/societal tensions.
Ukraine continues to focus on leveraging drone technology, with units recruiting for specialized roles including UAV operators. The Signum unit's successful downing of Russian Merlin-VR drones highlights effective drone defense. Ukrainian forces are utilizing "Baba Yaga" and AZM drones for remote mining on the Sumy direction to slow Russian advances. Ukrainian units received a substantial aid package for the Zaporizhzhia front including vehicles, 100 day camera drones, EW systems, drone detectors, and other equipment. Ukraine received $105 billion in security aid from the US since 2022, which has undergone US checks to ensure proper distribution, countering Russian narratives about aid misuse. The "Contract 18-24" project expands participating brigades to recruit younger personnel.
Russia continues to employ remote mining tactics via UAVs and utilize FPV operators to counter Ukrainian reconnaissance drones. Russian military units, including the 22nd Motor Rifle Regiment and elements of the "Sever" and "Vostok" Groups, are engaged in heavy fighting. Russian sources discuss the rapid development of drone technology, noting both sides now possess copter-type FPV drones with 30km range and powerful warheads capable of destroying armored targets. Russian reliance on volunteer support for equipment acquisition for units (e.g., 33rd Motor Rifle Regiment stormtroopers) is evident from fundraising appeals. Reports continue to detail issues with Russian personnel management (forced recruitment, poor training, lack of equipment/ammo, treatment). Severe difficulties with Russian logistics and evacuation are reported in areas with high Ukrainian drone activity. Russia plans to build a settlement for war participants and large families in Lipetsk Oblast, offering subsidized housing as a measure related to military personnel welfare and social support.
Recent statements attributed to Donald Trump indicate he has his "own deadline" for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal, which he wants concluded quickly, stating the US attitude will be "very different" after this deadline. He also believes Putin will listen to him regarding stopping strikes on Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, in recent interviews, reiterated his view of the US as a strong strategic partner. He expressed a desire for Ukraine to achieve "peace through strength," suggesting this approach would be beneficial for Russia as the aggressor. Zelenskyy rejected the narrative that Ukraine started the war and asserted that Russians have always desired the destruction of the United States, linking this to Soviet-era policy. He stated Ukraine is fighting for US rights as well as its own.
Bloomberg reports that the United States intends to demand Russia accept Ukraine's right to have its own military forces and defense industry as part of a future peace agreement. Separately, reports suggest the Trump administration wants Russia to return the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant to Ukraine, potentially placing it under US control to supply energy to "both sides" (a prospect rejected by Ukraine for supply to Russia).
The planned ministerial meeting in London reportedly did not occur at the ministerial level, following reports of potential US proposals involving territorial concessions and Ukraine's rejection of a frozen conflict scenario. The Times reports the UK is considering abandoning plans to send troops to Ukraine, viewing it as too risky due to the potential for wider conflict if a ceasefire with Russia fails. Discussion between Ukraine and the US regarding a minerals agreement will not conclude this week, with progress made but some issues remaining, including the US desire to link it to discussions on frozen Russian assets.
Russian information operations promote a narrative of successful Russian advances and operations, disseminate reports of alleged Ukrainian attacks on Russian civilians and territory, and utilize propaganda framing of political statements (e.g., Trump's deadline, UK troop decision) and diplomatic events (e.g., cynical poll on Ukrainian delegation's purpose in London). Russian propaganda also includes domestic initiatives reinforcing patriotism and support for the military, such as discharging newborns in military outfits and planning settlements for veterans. Pro-Russian sources employ dehumanizing imagery and reciprocal negative stereotyping in information warfare. There are attempts to link Balkan political events to perceived Western (UK) provocation and assassination plots against the President of Republika Srpska.
Ukrainian information operations highlight Russian attacks on civilian infrastructure and casualties, publicize statements from leadership reinforcing resolve and strategic goals (peace through strength, US partnership), report on legal processes (e.g., Nasirov case), share stories of soldier experiences and resilience, publicize battle damage assessments from successful strikes (Kirzhach arsenal), and utilize propaganda challenging Russian narratives and asserting Ukrainian historical claims or acts of defiance within Russia.
A Russian court arrested three legal entities of the "Lesta Games" group (online simulators) for undisclosed classified issues. Allegations of Russian security services torturing activists in Voronezh have surfaced. The investigation into the death of journalist Viktoria Roshchina continues, confirming signs of torture. A report on an incident at a market in Voronezh involving conflict between diaspora and a vendor highlights potential internal societal tensions in Russia. Russia is monitoring media coverage in Central Asia and Turkey regarding alleged threats, indicating a focus on information security in its "Near Abroad." In Ukraine, former DFS head Roman Nasirov's pre-trial detention was changed with increased bail; his previous attempt to "mobilize" into a specific military brigade is noted.
Ukrainian adaptation includes continuous recruitment for critical roles (drone operators), demonstrating effective drone defense tactics, employing remote mining using specific drone types (Baba Yaga, AZM), and adapting to challenging battlefield conditions through tactics like small group counterattacks and self-evacuation after injury. Ukrainian forces are also adapting through public fundraising efforts to acquire necessary equipment. Russian forces are adapting by employing remote mining via UAVs, using FPV operators to counter specific Ukrainian drone threats, and discussing the rapid advancement and deployment of long-range FPV drones by both sides. Russian units are also adapting logistics and tactics in areas with high Ukrainian drone activity and are relying on volunteer support to fill equipment gaps.
Ukraine received $105 billion in security aid from the US since 2022, which has undergone US oversight. Ukrainian resource allocation is directed towards recruiting personnel and acquiring critical equipment through international aid and fundraising efforts. Russian units, particularly on active fronts, rely on volunteer support for equipment, indicating potential gaps in state supply. Russian claims of disrupting Ukrainian logistics towards Otradne (Southern Donetsk) highlight the ongoing logistical challenges faced by both sides. Russia's plan to build a settlement for war participants in Lipetsk Oblast is a state-level resource allocation measure aimed at supporting military personnel and their families.
Official statements and interviews by Ukrainian President Zelenskyy serve as strategic communication to domestic and international audiences. Russian milblogger channels and state media are used for disseminating information operations and propaganda. Communication flows exist between Russian front-line units and rear-area volunteer groups supporting them. Communication issues within the Russian military are suggested by reports of a soldier's complaint about pay being cut off on state radio. Ukrainian and US officials are engaged in communication regarding a minerals agreement, though it will not be concluded this week.
The conflict continues to have severe humanitarian consequences, with civilian casualties and damage to civilian infrastructure reported by both sides. The confirmed signs of torture on the body of Ukrainian journalist Viktoria Roshchina represent a severe human rights violation. Allegations of Russian security services torturing activists internally in Russia raise human rights concerns beyond the immediate conflict zone. Russian claims of Ukrainian forces using civilian buildings for military purposes (e.g., Kupyansk) allege actions that endanger civilians. The planned construction of settlements for war participants in Russia addresses the long-term social and humanitarian needs created by the conflict for Russian personnel and their families.
High-level political figures like Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy are engaged in strategic decision-making influencing the conflict's trajectory. Trump's public statements regarding his personal timeline for a peace deal and perceived influence highlight the role of individual leaders. Zelenskyy's statements as head of state emphasize his role as guarantor of Ukraine's sovereignty and constitution. Internal legal processes in Ukraine (e.g., Nasirov case) demonstrate legal oversight and accountability mechanisms.
Actions against the "Lesta Games" entities in Russia and Russia monitoring media in neighboring countries indicate state focus on the digital and information spheres, likely related to control, censorship, or counter-influence efforts. Information operations and propaganda by both sides constitute a significant aspect of information warfare impacting public perception and potentially influencing morale and support.
Operational workflows include combat actions (assaults, clearing, drone use), logistics (supply, evacuation efforts facing challenges), intelligence gathering (reconnaissance drones, BDA), personnel management (recruitment, managing casualties/POWs), and information dissemination (official reports, propaganda). The process of providing volunteer support and equipment to Russian units involves specific workflows between donors, logistics providers, and front-line personnel. Forensic investigations into potential war crimes follow specific legal and technical workflows.
Trump's statement about a personal deadline and potential shift in US attitude signals a potential inflection point in international diplomatic efforts and pressure on the conflict parties. Conflicting claims on control of specific villages in border areas and Southern Donetsk indicate fluid front lines and contested tactical gains, suggesting ongoing intense combat and difficulty for either side to achieve decisive breakthroughs rapidly. The increasing range and capability of FPV drones on both sides point to a continued evolution of tactics and an enduring threat from these systems across the battlefield. Russia's focus on social support for war participants and families reflects the long-term domestic impact of the conflict and efforts to maintain societal support. The delay in the Ukraine-US minerals agreement, linked to frozen assets, highlights the complex financial and political factors influencing international support dynamics. Continued reports of human rights abuses (torture allegations, treatment of POWs/civilians) remain critical indicators of the nature of the conflict and potential war crimes.
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