Archived operational intelligence briefing
Further details on the large-scale combined air attack on April 24 indicate specific munitions used, including Kh-59 missiles on Kharkiv, Kh-101 on Shepetivka (Khmelnytskyi Oblast), and Kalibr cruise missiles on Zhytomyr and Vinnytsia Oblasts. A graphic analysis claims a significant increase in the intensity and scale of Russian missile and drone strikes across 12 Ukrainian frontline and strategic regions from late January 2025 onwards, correlating this surge with the period following a specific political event. The graphic suggests strike intensity across these regions has more than doubled, and in Odesa Oblast specifically, increased tenfold.
High-intensity combat continues across active axes. On the Kursk/Sumy Border Zone, Russian sources claim Ukrainian forces have been largely pushed out of Kursk Oblast territory but are now consolidated behind prepared fortifications in the Sumy border region. Fighting continues for Hornal and Oleshnya in Kursk Oblast, described by Russian sources as the last villages in "Russian territory" controlled by Ukrainian forces, with Russian Marine units (810th Brigade) reportedly engaged. Russian sources claim to have established fire control over a Ukrainian logistics route in the Sudzha district. Ukrainian forces are employing "Baba Yaga" drones for remote mining of terrain at night on the Sumy direction, creating significant danger for Russian infantry and equipment. Russian airborne forces are reportedly attempting to counter these drones. Ukrainian SOF raids are also noted near Gogolevka (Kursk). On the Southern Donetsk Direction (Novopavlivsk/Vremivka), Russian sources claim methodical advancement despite Ukrainian counterattacks, reporting penetration of Ukrainian defense lines, control over strongpoints and terrain, and inflicting significant Ukrainian personnel (over 35) and equipment (D-30, MT-12, mortar, vehicles) losses near Bohatyr, Otradne, and in the Vilne Pole area. Russian 'Vostok' Group is claimed to maintain initiative using small group tactics. On the Pokrovsk Axis (Krasnoarmiisk direction), the situation in Lysivka remains static, with the village divided between sides and a grey zone. Russian sources report extreme difficulty with evacuation and logistics on their northern flank due to heavy Ukrainian drone activity and overwhelmed Russian Electronic Warfare systems. Ukrainian forces are reported to be conducting counterattacks with small groups of 2-3 personnel, attempting to consolidate in basements. Remote mining tactics employed by Russian forces have reportedly destroyed two Ukrainian vehicles (pickup, buggy) near Radkovka (Kharkiv Oblast) and Novodanylivka (Zaporizhzhia Oblast).
The city of Sumy has declared April 25 a Day of Mourning in solidarity with Kyiv following the severe Russian attack on the capital on April 24. In Dnipropetrovsk Oblast on April 24, attacks on the Nikopolskyi district (Nikopol city, Marhanetska, and Pokrovska hromadas) resulted in 2 injured men (42 and 60 years old) and damage to a private house and a utility company due to kamikaze drones, UAV munitions, and artillery. In the Synelnykivskyi district (Mezhivska, Novopavlivska, and Slov'yanska hromadas), KABs and drones damaged infrastructure and a farm, though no casualties were reported. An ongoing investigation by the Ukrainian Office of the Prosecutor General has confirmed that forensic examination of the body of journalist Viktoria Roshchina, returned from Russian territory, shows signs of torture and cruel treatment, including abrasions, bruises, a broken rib, and possible electroshock marks. The cause of death could not initially be determined due to the state of the body; further forensic analysis, including with French experts, is being arranged to establish the cause of death and characterize the injuries.
Ukrainian capabilities continue to focus on integrating and leveraging drone technology; the 128th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade is actively recruiting for specialized roles including UAV operators/masters. The Signum unit has successfully downed another Russian Merlin-VR drone, highlighting effective drone defense tactics and cost-effectiveness. Ukrainian forces are attempting localized counterattacks in small groups, as reported by Russian sources. Russia continues to employ remote mining tactics using UAVs, claiming success against Ukrainian vehicles. Russian military units, including the 810th Marine Brigade's airborne assault battalion, are engaged in heavy fighting on the Kursk direction. A Russian milblogger fundraising appeal for thermal vision devices (binoculars, monoculars) and MAVIC 3 drones for paratrooper units highlights specific equipment needs and potential reliance on volunteer support to bridge gaps. Reports detail significant issues with Russian personnel management, including a former prisoner's account of forced recruitment into the military via torture, minimal training focused only on trench digging, lack of basic equipment/ammo, poor treatment by commanders, and high casualties for these units. A Russian soldier reportedly complained about lack of pay on state radio and was cut off, suggesting potential systemic payment issues and suppression of such reporting. Severe difficulties with evacuation and logistics for Russian forces are reported in areas with high Ukrainian drone activity and overwhelmed Electronic Warfare systems. Russian sources identify a large number of specific Ukrainian units (including Artillery Brigades, AA Battalion, Engineering Brigades, Territorial Defense Brigades, Ranger Regiment, Airborne Assault Brigades, Mechanized Brigade, Assault Regiment, and drone units) operating in the Kursk/Sumy border region.
Bloomberg reports that the United States will demand Russia accept Ukraine's right to have its own military forces and defense industry as part of a future peace agreement. Trump's envoy, Whitkoff, is expected to raise this issue with Putin on Friday. Related reporting indicates NATO Secretary-General Rutte will urge the Trump administration not to force Ukraine into an unfair peace settlement that would "pacify" Putin and increase the threat to European security. Donald Trump is quoted as believing Putin will listen to him regarding stopping strikes on Ukraine. The Russian Embassy in London described the UK's ban on technology and software exports to Russia as a hostile and meaningless gesture, framing it as "psychological compensation" for a failed round of consultations regarding a settlement around Ukraine, which they blamed Ukraine for disrupting. Russian information operations promote a conspiracy narrative alleging Western governments, NGOs, and the UN's International Organization for Migration are intentionally facilitating migration from Central Asia to Russia to increase crime and act against Russia. Russian state media and milbloggers promote the narrative of successful Russian advances and operations, including claiming success in clearing Ukrainian forces from "Russian territory" in Kursk and detailing alleged Ukrainian losses. Russian propaganda also continues to portray Ukraine as the aggressor and highlight perceived morale issues or societal weaknesses, such as a video purportedly showing Ukrainian girls unwilling to date men who cannot avoid mobilization due to fear of death. Ukrainian sources utilize information operations to highlight Russian attacks on civilians as war crimes, report on successful Ukrainian deep strikes and losses inflicted on Russia, and publicize recruitment efforts and international support. A Ukrainian source used a graphic claiming a large increase in Russian strikes since a specific political event to bolster arguments for continued support.
A Russian court has arrested three legal entities belonging to the "Lesta Games" group, which operates popular online tank and ship simulators, for undisclosed issues. A Russian milblogger promotes a narrative linking Western NGOs and the UN IOM to increased crime in Russia through facilitated migration, framing this as a security threat driven by foreign powers. A report states a picketer was detained in Voronezh protesting against alleged torture of local activists by Russian security services. The investigation into the death of journalist Viktoria Roshchina, confirming signs of torture, is being pursued as a potential war crime, indicating ongoing counter-intelligence and security-related investigations into actions within Russian-controlled territory and by Russian personnel. The Russian Embassy's statement regarding the UK tech ban links it to alleged Ukrainian disruption of talks, framing it within a security and information warfare context.
Ukrainian adaptation includes continued recruitment for specialized roles critical to the current conflict, such as drone operators. Ukrainian forces are demonstrating adaptation in defense by successfully employing tactics and equipment (like the Signum unit's actions) to counter specific Russian drone types repeatedly. The reported tactics of Ukrainian small groups attempting counterattacks in areas with high drone and EW activity suggests adaptation to challenging battlefield conditions. Russian forces are demonstrating adaptation by employing remote mining tactics via UAVs. Russian forces are also facing the challenge of adapting to effective Ukrainian drone use, particularly impacting logistics and evacuation, and are seeking solutions, including relying on volunteer support for necessary equipment and bolstering UAV operator training programs (as noted previously). The reported poor training and lack of equipment for some Russian units relying on forced recruitment indicates a failure in adaptation to meet the demands of modern combat.
Ukrainian resource allocation is directed towards recruiting personnel for critical roles, including drone operators, armor crew, infantry leaders, medics, and drivers for units like the 128th Brigade. Donations are being sought to acquire specific equipment, such as thermal optics and MAVIC 3 drones, highlighting resource gaps at the unit level for Russian forces. Reports of severe difficulties with Russian logistics and evacuation in areas like Lysivka due to heavy Ukrainian drone activity underscore the impact of Ukrainian actions on Russian resource movement and personnel recovery, indicating a significant logistical challenge for Russia. The account of a former Russian prisoner detailing lack of basic equipment and ammunition for his unit further points to potential resource distribution or availability issues within the Russian military, particularly impacting units formed from unconventional sources. The Russian court action against "Lesta Games" and the ongoing investigation into the Kirzhach arsenal incident suggest potential state actions or events impacting resources beyond the immediate front lines.
Formal investigations by the Ukrainian Office of the Prosecutor General, involving potential collaboration with French experts on forensic analysis in the Roshchina case, demonstrate coordination with international partners on specific legal and technical matters. Reports of a Russian soldier complaining about lack of pay on state radio, followed by being cut off and receiving threats, suggest issues with internal communication channels within the Russian military and attempts to control or suppress negative information affecting personnel morale and public perception. Official briefings and reporting structures, such as the one provided by the Head of the Kryvyi Rih Defense Council, demonstrate communication flows between different levels of authority and the public.
The declaration of a day of mourning in Sumy for the victims of the Kyiv attack underscores the shared humanitarian impact across Ukraine from Russian strikes. The reported injuries to civilians and damage to residential buildings and infrastructure in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast highlight the continued direct threat to civilian life and property. The confirmation by Ukrainian authorities of signs of torture on the body of journalist Viktoria Roshchina, who died while in Russian custody, represents a severe violation of human rights and a potential war crime, warranting international attention and investigation. An alleged video showing a Russian evacuation group discarding a wounded soldier from a moving vehicle, if verified, indicates potential severe ethical failures in personnel treatment and battlefield medical/evacuation procedures within the Russian military. The former prisoner's detailed account of forced recruitment through torture, inadequate training, lack of equipment, and poor treatment by commanders further highlights systemic ethical and human rights abuses within certain Russian military structures. A report of security services allegedly torturing activists in Voronezh points to internal human rights concerns within Russia itself. Russian information operations attempting to portray Ukrainian girls as unwilling to associate with mobilized men due to fear of death represents a form of psychological information warfare aimed at impacting Ukrainian societal resilience and morale.
Statements attributed to Donald Trump, such as his belief that Putin will listen to him regarding stopping strikes, suggest a perception of personal influence in high-level strategic decisions, impacting political dynamics surrounding the conflict. The Ukrainian Office of the Prosecutor General's investigation into the death and potential torture of journalist Viktoria Roshchina indicates a process of human and legal oversight aimed at investigating potential war crimes and ensuring accountability. The report of a Russian soldier's complaint about pay being cut off on state radio and a military expert's threatening response highlights issues concerning oversight of personnel welfare and potential suppression of dissent or negative reporting by figures in positions of authority or influence.
A Russian court has taken action against the legal entities of "Lesta Games," operating popular online simulators, which could relate to control over digital assets, potential censorship, or other state actions impacting the information and digital sphere. The Russian Embassy's framing of the UK's tech/software export ban as "psychological compensation" for failed peace talks is an example of information operations aimed at framing international actions within a narrative favorable to Russia. The Russian milblogger narrative promoting the idea of Western-backed migration increasing crime in Russia acts as an information operation attempting to link external influence to internal security concerns. The ASTRA report on the FSB remotely accessing a detained activist's Telegram account highlights security service capabilities and actions in the digital domain for surveillance and control, impacting information assurance and privacy.
The process of forensic investigation into potential war crimes, as detailed by the Ukrainian OGP regarding the Roshchina case and involving potential international collaboration, represents a formal operational workflow for documenting and investigating serious incidents. Continued recruitment efforts by Ukrainian military units like the 128th Brigade demonstrate an ongoing personnel management and force generation workflow. The process described by a former Russian prisoner details a specific, abusive, and reportedly ineffective, workflow for recruiting and deploying personnel from penal institutions. Russian military units are engaged in workflows related to conducting reconnaissance, deploying remote mining assets, and attempting logistics and evacuation in challenging battlefield environments. Briefings by regional authorities represent a workflow for disseminating information regarding the impact of hostilities and response efforts.
The claimed significant increase in the intensity and scale of Russian strikes since late January 2025, particularly impacting regions like Odesa, if accurate, suggests a notable shift in Russian strategy or capabilities, potentially aiming for greater impact and pressure on Ukraine's defenses and civilian population, and could be influenced by external political factors. The continued high intensity of ground combat, especially on the Pokrovsk and Toretsk axes, and claimed Russian advances in specific areas, despite reported heavy Ukrainian resistance and losses on both sides, indicates Russia's continued commitment to achieving territorial gains in Donbas. The identified issues within the Russian military regarding personnel management (forced recruitment, poor training, lack of equipment, pay issues) and logistics/evacuation challenges under Ukrainian drone pressure highlight potential vulnerabilities and strains on Russia's ability to sustain effective ground operations, despite stated objectives. The Ukrainian recruitment drive for specialized roles and effective drone defense actions indicate adaptation and efforts to build capabilities necessary for protracted conflict. Diplomatic reports regarding potential US demands for Russia to accept Ukraine's military sovereignty and concerns about external pressure for territorial concessions signal ongoing strategic disagreements among Ukraine's partners and potential leverage points or challenges in future negotiations. The confirmed signs of torture on a Ukrainian journalist's body underscore severe human rights violations and potential war crimes within Russian custody, impacting humanitarian considerations and future prisoner exchanges. The Russian court action against a major digital/gaming company and reports of security service actions against activists point to tightening internal control and security measures in Russia.
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