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Historical Intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing

Report Time
2025-04-24 12:17:36Z
10 months ago
Previous (2025-04-24 11:46:44Z)

Military Intelligence Brief: Operational Update

Strategic and Air Warfare

Russia conducted a massive combined air attack across Ukraine on April 24 using approximately 70 missiles and 145 drones, according to initial Ukrainian reporting, with President Zelenskyy later stating the attack involved more than 200 air targets (missiles, including ballistic, and drones). Ukrainian air defense forces intercepted 112 aerial targets (ballistic, cruise, guided aviation missiles, and a significant number of Shahed/imitator drones). Ukrainian Air Force tactical aviation, including F-16 and Mirage platforms, participated in the defense, contributing to downing dozens of cruise missiles and Shaheds. Despite significant interceptions, a considerable number of targets penetrated defenses, resulting in severe damage to critical and civilian infrastructure across Kyiv, Kyiv Oblast, Kharkiv, Poltava, Khmelnytskyi, Zhytomyr, Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia. Minister of Internal Affairs Klymenko stated Ukraine lacks sufficient air defense assets for such large-scale attacks, and Air Force spokesperson Ihnat highlighted the potential devastation if all ballistic missiles had reached their targets in Kyiv, framing ballistic strikes on cities as terrorism. Zelenskyy described the attack as one of the most complex and brazen from Russia, and linked it to Russian pressure on Ukraine and the United States.

Russian Ministry of Defence claimed the massive strike successfully hit Ukrainian aviation, missile-space, engineering, and armored industry enterprises, as well as facilities producing rocket fuel and gunpowder, asserting all targets were engaged. Russian milblogger Rybar's analysis claimed specific targets included the Artem plant in Kyiv, Malyshev plant in Kharkiv, and Pavlohrad chemical plant, along with railway infrastructure, while also noting that AD fragments fell in civilian areas. Footage published by Russian sources claims to show strikes and their consequences at the Malyshev plant in Kharkiv. Russian milblogger Dnevnik Desantnika specifically claimed targets in Kyiv included the Kyiv-Passenger railway station and associated logistics, locations of Western AD systems, personnel points near Lukyanivska metro station, and the Artem plant (claimed to produce air-to-air and anti-tank missiles, automated maintenance complexes, and UAV equipment). Russian sources claimed 11 Kinzhal missiles were used. Peskov stated the strikes on "military and near-military targets" continued because the Easter ceasefire had ended due to alleged Ukrainian violations.

Air threats remain active, with KAB launches noted on Donetsk and Sumy regions, and aerial weapons (presumably KABs) active on Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. A specific threat of tactical aviation weapons use was noted for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Rocket danger was declared for Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts. A recent Russian drone attack on Zaporizhzhia city early morning on April 24 damaged two multi-story residential buildings in the Shevchenkivskyi district, affecting around 50 apartments and breaking over 100 windows (no casualties reported in this specific attack update). Satellite imagery analysis confirms the complete destruction of the central part of the Russian 51st GRAU arsenal near Kirzhach following an incident on April 22. Russian milblogger Dnevnik Desantnika discussed the potential modernization of the Soviet-era ZU-23 anti-aircraft gun with modern sensors and controls for use against drones, particularly to protect energy infrastructure. Dva Mayora claimed Russian forces are using heavy air bombs on the Krasny Lyman direction.

Frontline Operations

High-intensity combat persists across all active axes, with a reported 168 combat clashes over the past 24 hours (GSh April 24).

  • Pokrovsk Axis: Remains the area of highest intensity, with Ukrainian defenders stopping 56 Russian assault actions near numerous settlements on April 24. Intense fighting reported around Kotlyne, Shevchenko, Hrodivka, Novohrodivka, and Novoyelyzavetivka. Russian Ministry of Defence claimed the liberation of the settlement Bogdanovka in DNR on April 24, with units of the "Center" group involved. Russian sources (Colonelcassad) claim Russian forces approached Petrovka from the south, liberated Tarasivka, corrected the map in their favor near Tarasivka, and expanded the control zone near Sukha Balka. Ukrainian GSh reports significant RU losses on this axis today: 349 personnel (174 KIA), 7 vehicles, and other equipment. Russian sources claim FPV drone operators hitting supply routes on Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction. A Russian POW, Metelimov (33rd Motor Rifle Regiment), captured on this axis, claimed he was tricked into signing a contract after conscription and forced into assault operations.
  • Toretsk Axis: Russian forces conducted 25 attacks on April 24. Russian sources claim continued advances southwest of Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk), entering Novospasskoye (Petrovka) and advancing in areas including Sukha Balka and Dyliivka. DeepState reports enemy continues to develop success southwest of Toretsk, occupying Panteleymonivka, Valentynivka, almost all of Sukha Balka, and assaulting Romanivka, noting a flanking maneuver around Shcherbynivka is being attempted. Ukrainian police drone and bodycam video shows close combat engagements and successful elimination of Russian personnel in this sector. RU MoD claims control over Sukha Balka. Russian sources (Colonelcassad) specifically claim Russian forces advanced towards Petrovka from the south and expanded the control zone near Sukha Balka. A video from the Ukrainian 49th Separate Assault Battalion "Carpathian Sich" showed the defense of Toretsk.
  • Lyman Axis: Saw 20 Russian attacks on April 24. Russian sources claimed expanding the zone of control towards Torske. Significant fighting is reported near Kreminna. Dva Mayora claimed Russian "Smuglyanka detachment" is using heavy air bombs on "Nazi positions" in this area.
  • Siversk Axis: Ukrainian forces stopped 12 Russian offensive actions on April 24. A Ukrainian NGU "Rubizh" brigade scout reportedly captured 6 Russian assault troops single-handedly near Siversk. Ukrainian forces stopped 9 Russian offensive actions near Bilohorivka and Verkhnokamyanske today, with 3 ongoing. RU sources claim continued offensive actions near Hryhorivka.
  • Novopavlivsk Axis: Ukrainian units stopped 15 Russian offensive actions on April 24. Russian sources note force accumulation in this area for a potential large offensive aiming for the Dnipropetrovsk/Donetsk border. Russian sources claim advances towards Bohatyr/Otradne. RU sapper operations reported near Yegorivka. Russian milbloggers mentioned a Ukrainian attempt to advance on the Vremivka ledge during commentary on MRAPs. Colonelcassad reported on the Southern Donetsk direction (Shahtyor and Polozhsky axes), claiming RU Vostok group destroyed several UA armored vehicles (M113, Kozak, MaxPro carrying ammo), pickups, a Darts UAV, and an NSU control antenna near Bogatyr, Alexeevka, and Otradnoye, and a fuel depot near Dorozhnyanka, emphasizing RU focus on disrupting UA logistics and command/control.
  • Orikhiv Axis: Occupiers attempted to advance three times on April 24. Increased Russian assault activity is reported, with positional fighting and Ukrainian counterattacks. Ukrainian intelligence assesses troop transfers for expected intensification. Voin DV claimed a Russian "Voronezh" operator from "Shtorm" detachment destroyed enemy positions on the Zaporizhzhia direction using a drone.
  • Kharkiv Direction: Saw 4 Russian attacks repelled near Vovchansk and Vovchanski Khutory on April 24. The situation is complex but controlled. Russian forces continue air strikes and shelling. RU sources claim RU assault groups actively pushing into UA defense near Vovchansk and Lyptsi. RU MoD claims hitting UA manpower/equipment near Vovchansk, Liptsy, Malye Prokhody. A Russian collaborator source claimed UA forces are concentrating personnel and equipment, including foreign mercenaries, near Velykyi Burluk, close to the Belgorod border.
  • Kupyansk Axis: One Russian attack was repelled on April 24. Ukrainian forces may have recently advanced and potentially secured control over the northwestern part of Petropavlivka. RU sources claim resumed "rolling attacks" and fighting for Kamenka and Kondrashovka. RU MoD claims hitting manpower/hardware near Kupyansk, Andreyevka, Druzhelyubovka, Petropavlovka, Kamenka (Kharkov region), Novoye, Kirovsk, and Yampol (Donetsk).
  • Kramatorsk Axis: Recorded one combat clash near Klishchiivka on April 24. RU claims destroying UA mortar position and crew near Alexandropol (Rozovka) using drone/2S1. RU MoD claims hitting UA units near Kramatorsk, Slavyansk, Zakotnoye, Chasov Yar, Ivanopolye, Konstantinovka, and Seversk.
  • Huliaipole Axis: Recorded no ground clashes on April 24. RU forces claimed KAB strikes and other fire on this area. RU MoD claims advancing to depths of enemy defense near Bogatyr, Novoukrainka, Volnoye Pole, and Zelenoye Pole.
  • Prydniprovskyi Axis: The enemy had one unsuccessful attempt to advance on April 24. Russian sources claimed Ukrainian forces attempted to cross the Dnipro near Antonivka bridge overnight but were destroyed by UAVs. RU MoD claims hitting units near Ponyatovka and Tokarevka (Kherson region).
  • Donetsk Axis (near Donetsk city): RU milblogger units ("Rubicon", "Okhotnik") claim drone operations downing UA drones ("Baba Yaga", Mavic), hitting UA PVDs, logistics (pickups, cars, Kamaz, M113), strongpoints, and comms antennas. RU milblogger Basurin claims inflicting high losses (up to 1000) and destroying 5 ammo depots on Donbas. RU milblogger also claims RU "Center" group is hitting UA positions in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. RU milblogger claims hitting enemy (UA) engineering preparations to prevent fortifications. Ukrainian 109th Separate Mountain Assault Battalion used drones at night to destroy Russian logistics targets including 4 trucks, 1 car, and 1 Russian soldier.

Cross-Border Engagements (Kursk/Belgorod/Sumy)

Intense Russian activity continues in the Kursk/Sumy Border Zone. Ukrainian forces repelled 26 Russian assaults on April 24. Russian forces conducted 20 airstrikes (41 KABs) and 423 shellings (19 MLRS) over the past day (April 24). Russian sources claim Ukrainian forces are trying to transfer reserves to Hornal (Kursk), leading to fierce battles. Russian milblogger Poddubny states fierce battles are ongoing for Hornal, UA attempts to bring in armor from Sumy are being destroyed on adjacent territory, and high UA drone intensity is affecting the speed of Russian advance. RU MoD claims inflicting damage on UA formations ("Sever" group zone) near multiple settlements in Sumy region, claiming over 45 personnel, armored vehicle, vehicles, and artillery lost. RU milblogger claims drone operations destroying UA groups near Demidovka (Belgorod border) and that UA "politically motivated" actions here yielded no result. RU sources claim combined Iskander and Tornado-S strike on a Ukrainian 47th Mechanized Brigade command post in Korovyntsi, Sumy Oblast, with significant claimed personnel and equipment losses (~25 command, ~40 comms personnel, vehicles, comms nodes/masts). RU milblogger Colonelcassad claimed a RU Forpost drone strike destroyed an AFU PVD near Novodmytrivka in Sumy Oblast. Russian Ministry of Defence claimed repelling an attempt by AFU to invade Russian territory in Kursk region on April 24, stating the "Sever" Group of Forces hit units of three Ukrainian air assault brigades and a territorial defense brigade near Gornal and Oleshnya and inflicted losses exceeding 150 personnel, along with armored fighting vehicles, artillery, mortars, MLRS, vehicles, UAV command posts, and ammunition depots. RU MoD provided cumulative AFU loss figures in the Kursk direction since the start of hostilities, claiming over 75,860 personnel and extensive lists of destroyed equipment. Russian milblogger WarGonzo presented footage of a damaged Ukrainian mortar near Hornal monastery, claiming it was user-inflicted damage/negligence. Dnevnik Desantnika claimed Russian forces continue pushing enemy from Kursk region near Hornal, claiming Marines pushed enemy 500m south of Guyevo and raised a Russian flag on a mill building, with infantry active opposite the Psel river. He also claimed a UA attempt to break through near Goptarovka with assault groups on quadbikes was thwarted by Russian FPV operators.

A significant development reported by Ukrainian SSO is that warriors of the 6th regiment "Ranger" destroyed a platoon of 25 North Korean military personnel in close combat in Kursk Oblast last month. Video from drone and bodycams was released recently for operational security.

The Russian MoD claimed destroying or intercepting 87 Ukrainian UAVs over Russian regions overnight on April 24. Russian sources reported alleged Ukrainian drone attacks burning civilian homes in Bryansk Oblast. The Russian Ministry of Defence proposed extending the one-time payment of 400,000 rubles for SVO participants to military personnel serving in Bryansk, Belgorod, and Kursk Oblasts. A Russian collaborator source claimed UA forces are concentrating personnel and equipment, including foreign mercenaries, near Velykyi Burluk (Kharkiv Oblast), close to the Belgorod border.

Civilian Impact & Casualties

The large-scale Russian attack on April 24 resulted in severe civilian casualties and damage across multiple regions.

  • Kyiv: Confirmed 8 fatalities. Minister of Internal Affairs Klymenko stated that two children from the same family were among the fatalities. President Zelenskyy confirmed among the Kyiv fatalities a brother and sister, aged 21 and 19. Search and rescue operations are ongoing, with possibility of people still under rubble. 77 individuals sought medical help, with 31 hospitalized, including 6 children and a pregnant woman. Casualties ranged from 1.5 to 80 years old. Damage occurred across 5 districts, impacting residential buildings (one multi-story destroyed, fires, partial destruction), non-residential buildings, garages, and cars. Damage to Lukyanivska metro station (5th time) and the Central Marriage Palace was noted. Minister of Internal Affairs Klymenko stated the attack hit a dense residential area and a school, with no military objects in the vicinity. Oleksiy Biloshitsky (Ukrainian National Police) also reported civilian casualties and destruction in Kyiv, Kharkiv, Pavlohrad, and other cities, framing the Russian actions as terrorism. Kyiv declared April 25 a Day of Mourning for the victims.
  • Kostiantynivka, Donetsk Oblast: Russian forces conducted 4 Smerch MLRS strikes on April 24 targeting the private sector, killing 2 civilians (a 12-year-old girl and a woman) and injuring 2 others.
  • Kharkiv: April 24 impacts caused damage to private houses, multi-story residential buildings, a clinic, school, production enterprises (including the Malyshev plant according to RU sources), and a hotel, with 6 injured reported in the region (including a 14-year-old girl with acoustic barotrauma). The Kharkiv Oblast Prosecutor detailed three waves of attacks. Latest updates from Kharkiv city from the recent attack confirm 2 injured from strikes on a densely populated residential area. Russian milblogger RVvoenkor claimed strikes hit the Malyshev plant.
  • Kyiv Oblast: The attack resulted in 2 women suffering acute stress reaction and damage to residential buildings and infrastructure.
  • Zhytomyr Oblast: Several combined attacks on April 24 caused damage and fires. A repeat strike during response efforts injured one rescuer and damaged 4 units of State Emergency Service (DSNS) equipment.
  • Sumy Oblast (Nedryhailivska community): A drone strike on April 24 caused 2 injuries and damaged administrative and non-residential buildings.
  • Poltava Oblast (Myrhorodskyi raion): Debris from a downed missile on April 24 damaged a household building and car, with no casualties.
  • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Pavlohrad): A mass combined attack damaged 14 multi-story buildings and infrastructure; no casualties reported in Pavlohrad specifically. Regional administration reported 9 aerial targets downed overnight. Rybar milblogger claimed the attack hit Pavlohrad chemical plant.
  • Zaporizhzhia city: A Shahed attack on April 24 damaged an administrative building and nearby windows, with two multi-story buildings also reported damaged (no casualties reported in the city specifically from this attack update). Recent drone attack on the city damaged two residential high-rises, affecting around 50 apartments and breaking over 100 windows.
  • Kamyanka-Dniprovska, Zaporizhzhia Oblast (RU reported): TASS reported five artillery strikes by AFU on the center of Kamyanka-Dniprovska with preliminary reports of casualties, later confirming the death of one civilian.
  • Makiivka (occupied territory): Mash on Donbas reported a bus driver died at the wheel due to health issues, despite passing a medical exam.

Ukrainian Prime Minister Shmyhal stated that since the start of the full-scale war, Russia has killed 13,000 civilians, including 618 children. He also cited 1700 attacks on schools, over 780 attacks on hospitals, and over 30 massive (and hundreds of smaller) attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure. The head of Zaporizhzhia OVA commented on the horror of ongoing Russian attacks and civilian deaths. CinC Syrskyi stated Russia bombs civilian cities due to lack of success on the front, acting as terrorists. Russian MoD claims regarding the April 24 attack goals were contradicted by local reports of widespread civilian casualties and damage.

The return of the body of journalist Viktoriia Roshchyna, reportedly killed in Russian captivity, was confirmed, with details alleging her torture. Ukraine's OGP is investigating this as a war crime. A Russian POW reported on the suffering of families and the human cost of the war.

Support for Ukrainians who have survived captivity, torture, and sexual violence is being provided through the "Vilnyi Step" platform, offering free psychological support, medical consultations, necessary medications, and assistance with expensive examinations via NGOs. Kharkiv Oblast Council approved changes to regional programs to increase psychological support for veterans and their families and provide additional financial aid to children of fallen soldiers. A video from Zaporizhzhia OVA highlighted increasing employment opportunities for people with disabilities. A death of an inmate in Kyiv SIZO in December 2024 is under investigation, with 8 employees and 5 inmates suspected of involvement in fatal assault, negligence, and cover-up; this reflects ongoing issues within the justice system.

Capabilities, Logistics & Personnel

Ukrainian forces demonstrated effective Air Defense capabilities during the April 24 attack, intercepting a large number and variety of Russian missiles and drones, including ballistic missiles. The reported involvement of F-16 and Mirage pilots underscores the high activity of multi-layered AD systems. Ukrainian Air Defense forces intercepted 112 air targets in the April 24 attack. Vadym Voroshylov, a Hero of Ukraine fighter pilot, commented on the necessity of professionalism, unity, and continuous army development, urging civilians to learn basic tactical medicine and discipline. The government has simplified the import of explosives and components for ammunition production for private manufacturers without state contracts, aiming to accelerate domestic ammo output. President Zelenskyy's directive and Minister Klymenko's statements highlight the critical need for continued supply of interceptors and systems due to insufficient current capabilities for the scale of Russian attacks. UA GUR unit "Wings" reported downing 3 RU reconnaissance UAVs. Ukrainian forces successfully used an FPV drone to cause a powerful detonation of a Russian BM-21 Grad MLRS, destroying the vehicle. The Ukrainian unit "Chorne Krylo" reported destroying a Russian ammo depot this morning and receiving a Starlink terminal. Warriors of the SSO "Ranger" 6th regiment successfully destroyed a platoon of 25 North Korean military personnel in Kursk Oblast last month, releasing drone and bodycam footage. Ukrainian 109th Separate Mountain Assault Battalion successfully used drones to destroy Russian logistics (4 trucks, 1 car, 1 soldier) at night, highlighting ongoing need for drone donations. The structure of Ukrainian Air Assault Forces (DShV) includes the 7th Corps (comprising 25th Airborne Brigade, 77th Airmobile, 78th Regiment, 79th Air Assault, 81st Airmobile) and the newly formed 8th Corps (comprising 46th Airmobile, 71st Jaegar, 80th, 82nd, and 95th Air Assault Brigades). The 15th Separate Support Regiment of the Ukrainian Marine Corps is actively improving skills in modern CBRN defense, indicating a focus on preparedness for hazardous environments.

Recruitment for the Ukrainian 475th Separate Assault Battalion "CODE 9.2" (part of the 92nd Assault Brigade) is active, focusing on UAV components, structured training (up to 3 months), and integrating combat experience with management approaches. The battalion highlights low own losses vs high enemy damage, offers competitive salary (up to 200k UAH/month), good equipment, modern tech, and accepts those returning from AWOL. Ukrainian Basic Military Training (БЗВП) is a 49-day course with a final field exercise. Ukrainian 78th Separate Air Assault Regiment engineers are actively engaged in engineering reconnaissance, clearing and laying mines/IEDs.

The Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War held a meeting with families of the 24th Separate Mechanized Brigade, discussing critical issues such as limited official confirmation by the ICRC for some freed soldiers, undelivered letters, why exchanges are not from all detention colonies, search for the missing (including showing photos to released POWs), body repatriation, DNA analysis, potential "all-for-all" exchanges (including illegally convicted), and tracking detention locations. Kharkiv Oblast authorities approved new programs to enhance psychological support and rehabilitation, including swimming lessons for soldiers with amputations, and increased financial support for children of fallen service members.

Russian forces continue employing large-scale combined air attacks. Tactical aviation remains active, including KAB launches. Russian sources claimed use of FPV drones, reconnaissance, and strike assets. Russian milblogger commentary (Two Majors) showcased various RU equipment and capabilities including FPV drones, heavy transport trucks, well-equipped soldiers with modified rifles (optics, suppressors, lights), larger multirotor drones (octocopters) for advanced ISR or logistics, and fixed-wing ISR/utility drones operated from improvised bases. Some RU personnel appear to be using mixed equipment, including what looks like a US-made M26A1 grenade alongside a Russian-designed one. Russian Southern Military District training centers are conducting training on BMP-3 vehicles, including retraining veterans. Russian sources noted volunteer/regional efforts supplying modified armored trucks ("Frontline Armor") to medics/support in Starobelsk (LPR), highlighting the role of these initiatives. Russian reconnaissance drone operators (VDV) reported using a volunteer-supplied Mavic 3T for night reconnaissance on the front line. Russian drone operators (944th Sapper Regiment) claimed successfully coordinating artillery strike via drone to destroy a Ukrainian D-30 howitzer near Zarya. RU MoD claimed inflicting significant losses on UA formations and equipment across various axes (incl. Kirpi, M113 armored vehicles, artillery, EW stations, ammo depots, JDAM bombs, numerous UAVs). RU milblogger drone units claimed downing UA drones ("Baba Yaga", Mavic) and hitting various UA targets (PVDs, logistics vehicles, strongpoints, comms antennas). Russian Ministry of Defence proposed extending the one-time payment of 400,000 rubles for SVO participants to military personnel serving in Bryansk, Belgorod, and Kursk Oblasts. Russian milbloggers discussed the potential modernization of the Soviet-era ZU-23 anti-aircraft gun with modern sensors and controls for use against drones, particularly to protect energy infrastructure. Angel Spetsnaz 45 claimed to be destroying enemy heavy drones, sharing a photo of a captured hexacopter. RU milblogger Colonelcassad reported claimed destruction of several UA armored vehicles (M113, Kozak, MaxPro), logistics, and C2 nodes (NSU antenna, Darts UAV) on the Southern Donetsk axis overnight. Voin DV claimed RU drone operator destroyed enemy positions on the Zaporizhzhia direction. RU MoD provided cumulative AFU loss figures in the Kursk direction since the start of hostilities, claiming over 75,860 personnel and extensive lists of destroyed equipment, likely for information operations purposes given the high figure.

A significant internal Russian military development is the conviction of General-Major Ivan Popov to 5 years imprisonment, a fine of 800,000 rubles, and stripping of his rank for fraud and forgery related to the sale of metal structures intended for fortifications in Zaporizhzhia. His lawyer stated he will seek acquittal. Russian milbloggers linked the conviction to his previous public criticism of General Staff leadership, comparing his fate to others who fell out of favor. Russian domestic aid to victims of the Kirzhach arsenal explosion included basic items like toilet paper, perceived by some as inadequate. The Lugansk city administration in occupied territory published a list of needed supplies that included non-standard items alongside essential goods, indicating ongoing logistical needs and potential administrative issues. Butusov Plus reported the death of Russian soldier Viktor Vladimirovich Ponosov, noting the funeral announcement listed a future date (April 19, 2025).

Joint Franco-British urban combat exercises are taking place in France, incorporating lessons from the Ukraine conflict, including rapid command post deployment and relocation based on drone data. Participants were stated to be ready for deployment anywhere. Denmark has also reportedly stated preparations to send instructors and active personnel to Ukraine for two-week courses on modern combat by June 2025.

Political, Diplomatic & Information Operations

Reports indicate potential discussions and pressure regarding peace negotiations. FT reported that European nations warned the United States that they will not recognize annexed Crimea as Russian territory, viewing recognition as unacceptable as it would undermine the rules-based order and potentially encourage further Russian aggression against Georgia, Moldova, and the Baltic states, risking a crisis in NATO and a split within the EU, especially over potential US sanctions lifting. Politico reported the White House is considering lifting sanctions on Nord Stream 2 as part of discussions about ending the war. The Times reported that the readiness of the UK and France to send their military as "peacekeepers" in case of a peace deal is weakening. Ukraine continues diplomatic engagements; President Zelenskyy met with the President of South Africa, Cyril Ramaphosa, holding a joint press conference. Zelenskyy stated he gave Ramaphosa a list of 400 Ukrainian children currently in Russia against their will, hoping for assistance in their return, and highlighted the large-scale Russian attack on Ukraine today during the conference, linking it to Russian pressure on Ukraine and the US. Zelenskyy commented on the London talks, stating they were not easy but constructive, and concluded with a desire to continue working towards peace, contrary to what Russia might have hoped would be a major scandal. He reiterated that sitting down for negotiations with Russia would be a "big compromise" for Ukraine, especially after the large-scale attacks, and that Ukraine is only ready for talks after a full ceasefire. He emphasized that anything contradicting Ukraine's constitution (implying territorial concessions) cannot be part of any agreements and that a new document following the London meeting has been presented to "Trump's table." Responding to remarks about potential US patience running out regarding a settlement (allegedly from Trump), Zelenskyy stressed that Ukrainians' patience is the one being tested by constant attacks, and called for greater pressure on Russia to achieve a full ceasefire. Ramaphosa stated he had calls with both Putin and Trump earlier this week regarding finding a peaceful resolution to the conflict. South African President Ramaphosa, during the press conference with Zelenskyy, reportedly stated that territorial concessions by Ukraine could be a "prerequisite for peace," but emphasized focusing on the willingness for an unconditional ceasefire first. The UK and Ukraine issued a joint commemorative postal stamp marking "100 years of partnership."

Russian official statements (Peskov) reiterated Russia's stance that Putin advocates for peace ensuring Russia's interests (mandatory condition), and that the Easter ceasefire ended after being violated by Kyiv, so RU forces continue tasks. Peskov stated Russia sees disagreements and "problems with bringing positions closer" among the participants of the London meeting (which was reportedly downgraded). Peskov also stated that Trump's alleged statement that Crimea's affiliation is not subject to discussion fully aligns with Russia's position. Peskov explicitly linked the cessation of the Easter ceasefire to the continuation of strikes on "military and near-military targets." Peskov also commented on the potential resumption of gas transit via Ukraine, framing it purely as a "commercial project" not to be politicized, in response to a question about potential US control over the pipeline. Sergey Naryshkin, Head of Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service, speculated on "various options" regarding Zelenskyy's fate or plans, including potential escape, which can be seen as an information operation. General SVR claimed that the US is offering Russia a "fantastic" economic deal (complete lifting of US sanctions since 2014, large joint projects) in exchange for ending the war, that Russian experts view this as the best way out of the economic crisis, and that a negotiator is awaiting a final answer on the political terms. Russian SVR claimed that "European warmongers" (UK/FR intelligence) are attempting to undermine Trump's peace efforts by using Russian exiles to fabricate accusations against Trump's circle to torpedo negotiations. Russian MFA Spokesperson Maria Zakharova made several points, including: the UN Secretariat ignoring Zelenskyy "mocking" the ceasefire idea; Zelenskyy establishing full control over local authorities in preparation for turbulence; Russia viewing US steps on preserving memory of the Elbe meeting positively; considering UN mediation on Ukraine strange; advising former UA envoy Melnyk to seek medical help; claiming UA militants caused "obscurantism and terror" during Easter; Russia seeking international condemnation of Lithuania's racism; Moldova's authorities losing conscience over depriving population of Victory Day; and warning Tokyo against inconsistent relations.

Ukrainian CinC Syrskyi stated Russia bombs civilian cities due to lack of success on the front, acting as terrorists, promising punishment. UA Minister of Internal Affairs Klymenko highlighted the civilian nature of the recent Kyiv strike, directly contradicting Russian claims of targeting military/defense industry. Kyiv declared April 25 a Day of Mourning, emphasizing the human cost. Oleksiy Biloshitsky (UA National Police) echoed claims that Russian forces deliberately targeted civilians and civilian infrastructure in cities, framing it as terrorism.

Russian milbloggers commented on the April 24 attack severity, linking it to the failure of London peace talks and blaming Zelenskyy. Russian milblogger Colonelcassad commented on the Kyiv AD response, referring to ongoing complaints about breached defenses. They also used the conviction of General Popov to criticize Putin/leadership and highlight alleged injustice compared to others. Russian Duma plans to seize funds from "foreign agents" for "SVO" participants' rehabilitation and infrastructure restoration in occupied areas, potentially retroactively. Russian propaganda actively links the current conflict to the victory in World War II, using symbols like the St. George ribbon (framed by military reporter Poddubny as a "flag" and "banner") and commemorating the upcoming 80th Victory Day to mobilize patriotic support, particularly among youth (events in Bryansk). In Kemerovo, a Russian hospital began dressing newborns in miniature military uniforms (WWII-era style) for discharge, linking the practice to May 9th and the 80th Victory Day, framed as a patriotic tradition connecting generations. Some instances of incompetence in Russian propaganda were noted, such as using a photo of US soldiers in Afghanistan from 2001 on a Victory Day banner in Balakhna, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, which was later replaced. Russian milblogger Colonelcassad published a propaganda video with a caption suggesting Ukraine is planning to mobilize women and allow them to bring infants to the front, framing it negatively ("To the last Ukrainian"). RU milblogger commentary also framed international military exercises near Russia's borders and discussions of sending foreign troops to Ukraine as hostile and European leaders being out of touch. The incident with the bus driver dying in Makiivka was reported, providing a glimpse into daily life under occupation. The ASTRA platform reported on the Moscow court decision overturning housing for a "daughter of GULAG" descendant, highlighting domestic social/legal issues. The CSTO Secretary-General clarified Armenia's status within the organization is paused, not exited. Putin commented on Russian economic performance (inflation over 10%, 1.9% GDP growth early 2025, efforts for "soft landing," reduced bank lending offset by budget). Russian milbloggers framed the detention of Русский дом employees in Kyrgyzstan as pressure linked to alleged UA recruitment efforts. Russian milblogger Rybar published commentary on migration issues within Russia, citing an incident in the Moscow metro involving a migrant and highlighting concerns about public order and the need for changes in migration policy, also noting increased activism from the Christian population. Russian Ministry of Defence communication framed the claimed repelling of a Ukrainian attempt to invade Kursk region on April 24 as a successful defensive operation on Russian territory against AFU aggression, providing cumulative loss figures for IO effect. Dva Mayora claimed Ukraine is becoming a "terrorist country," linking "Ukraine - Basque Country" association to ETA tactics. Alex Parker Returns used derogatory language to frame Zelenskyy's statements and discredit Garry Kasparov. RU milbloggers claimed RU advances and flag raising in Kursk area. Butusov Plus commented on a Russian soldier's death with unusual funeral date, using a sarcastic/morbid tone.

Ukrainian sources highlighted the severe civilian consequences of the April 24 attack, promoted recruitment and training efforts, publicized successful cyber security operations (joint operation with Czech police), and released video of Ukrainian SSO destroying North Korean personnel in Kursk (delayed release). STERNENKO's report on the 18-year-old girl's successful evacuation from occupied Makiivka to Ukraine served as a narrative of resilience and return. Zelenskyy's public statements emphasized Ukraine's diplomatic stance (talks after ceasefire, no territorial concessions) and linked Russian attacks to political pressure. UA 109th Mtn Assault Bn published video of destroying RU logistics at night with drones and appealed for donations. ASTRA reported on FSB detaining an activist in Donetsk, which was also discussed as a human rights/security issue. A video from the 49th Separate Assault Battalion "Carpathian Sich" showed the defense of Toretsk.

Counter-Intelligence & Security

A joint operation by Ukrainian OGP/SBU Cyber Department and Czech Police NCTEKK SKPV halted a hacker group developing and selling malware used to steal personal data/crypto keys, which was also used by Russian hackers. Four participants were notified of suspicion (3 in Ukraine, 1 in Czech Republic), and equipment was seized. This highlights successful international cooperation against cyber threats.

In Russia, the FSB claimed to prevent a terrorist attack on a petrochemical enterprise in Nizhny Novgorod region on April 24, neutralizing two individuals from Central Asia who allegedly acted on instructions from Ukraine. A Ukrainian source dismissed this claim as staged. Another resident was reportedly detained in Nizhny Novgorod on suspicion of preparing an arson ("terrorist attack") linked to Ukraine. A Russian activist reported a search linked to a case against a gallerist accused of "fakes" about the army. Russian Duma is planning legislation to seize funds from "foreign agents." Russian authorities reported detaining members of a terrorist community in Dagestan preparing an attack on a police department. A shooting incident occurred on a parking lot in Kyiv's Podilskyi district involving two civilians; police are investigating. Oleksiy Biloshitsky (UA National Police) highlighted the role of police and emergency services in responding to the April 24th strikes, clearing rubble, providing aid, and ensuring passage of special equipment. Russian milbloggers framed the detention of Русский дом employees in Kyrgyzstan as potentially linked to Ukrainian recruitment. ASTRA reported that the FSB detained a human rights activist in occupied Donetsk on April 10, held him for six hours, and subsequently accessed his Telegram account remotely from a device located in Vilnius, Lithuania, implying the use of tools like VPNs for remote access or surveillance. Roskomnadzor reportedly forced the Russian outlet BAZA to delete publications, including reports on the Prigozhin mutiny and mobilized personnel, citing "discreditation" of the Russian armed forces and the spread of "false" information according to the official narrative, highlighting state information control measures relevant to information assurance. In Ukraine, a death of an inmate in the Kyiv SIZO in December 2024 is being investigated by the Prosecutor General's Office and DBR, involving 8 employees and 5 inmates on suspicion of fatal assault, negligence, and cover-up, highlighting internal security and justice system issues.

Damage to railway infrastructure (Lukyanivska metro station in Kyiv - 5th time) and civil infrastructure continues. DSNS units responding to impacts face hazards like repeat strikes (Zhytomyr).

Learning and Adaptation

Ukrainian Air Assault Forces have organized into a corps system, including the newly formed 8th Corps and the existing 7th Corps, indicating adaptation in force structure. The 15th Separate Support Regiment of the Marine Corps is focusing on improving modern CBRN defense skills, suggesting preparedness for specific environmental or enemy threats. Ukrainian units like the 109th Separate Mountain Assault Battalion are utilizing drones for targeted logistics destruction at night, demonstrating adaptation in tactics and reliance on technological solutions. Kharkiv Oblast Council initiatives supporting veterans and their families, including psychological support and rehabilitation programs, indicate adaptation to the long-term societal impact of the conflict and efforts to support personnel recovery. The Ukrainian government's simplification of importing explosives for private manufacturers shows adaptation aimed at increasing domestic ammunition production based on wartime needs.

Russian milbloggers are discussing the potential modernization of the ZU-23 anti-aircraft gun for drone defense, indicating recognition of the evolving threat environment and potential adaptations of existing equipment. Russian forces' focus on disrupting Ukrainian logistics and command/control nodes (like NSU antennas and reconnaissance UAVs) on axes like Southern Donetsk reflects adaptation in targeting priorities based on observed Ukrainian capabilities. Russian units like "Angel Spetsnaz 45" claiming success against enemy heavy drones indicates adaptation in countering specific UAV threats. Russian MoD proposing SVO payments for border personnel suggests adaptation in personnel incentives based on the intensity of cross-border activity.

Cybersecurity and Information Assurance

A significant successful operation involving Ukrainian OGP/SBU Cyber Department and Czech Police halted a hacker group and seized equipment, demonstrating ongoing efforts to combat cyber threats and protect sensitive data/systems in coordination with international partners.

In Russia, Roskomnadzor's action forcing the BAZA outlet to delete publications related to sensitive military topics (Prigozhin mutiny, mobilized) underscores the pervasive state control over information and censorship regarding the conflict, impacting information assurance and the availability of non-state-controlled information. ASTRA's report on the FSB potentially accessing an activist's Telegram account remotely from Lithuania suggests advanced surveillance capabilities and the use of tools that bypass standard security measures, raising concerns about information security for individuals operating in or reporting on occupied territories or critical of the Russian government.

Human Oversight and Decision Authority

The brief consistently reports on actions by human commanders (e.g., Ukrainian defenders stopping assaults, RU forces attempting advances), reflecting the continued human element in tactical decision-making. The structure of the Ukrainian Air Assault Forces into Corps implies a tiered command structure with human oversight at multiple levels. Discussions around peace negotiations, territorial concessions, and ceasefires involve high-level political leaders making critical strategic decisions. The investigation into the inmate's death in Kyiv SIZO involving suspected employee negligence and cover-up highlights the need for accountability and oversight within state institutions, including those operating during wartime.

Operational Workflow

The brief demonstrates the operational workflow: data is collected from diverse sources (GSh reports, milbloggers, official statements, satellite imagery, human reports from press conferences, ASTRA, SIZO investigation report, OVA updates), analyzed (comparing claims, identifying trends in attacks/movements, assessing casualties, noting capabilities), and reported (structured into sections). Feedback loops are implicitly present through reporting on responses to events (e.g., AD actions against strikes, rescue operations) and adjustments in tactics or force structure (formation of DShV Corps, CBRN training focus). The inclusion of fundraising appeals (UA units for drones, RU milbloggers for quadcopters) suggests a feedback loop where identified needs at the unit level are communicated, sometimes publicly.

Resource Allocation and Logistics

The report highlights ongoing efforts in resource allocation and logistics. Ukraine is focusing on domestic ammunition production by simplifying import rules and appealing for drone donations. The organization of DShV into Corps is a structural change impacting personnel and equipment allocation. Support programs for veterans and their families (psychological, financial, rehabilitation) reflect long-term resource commitment to personnel welfare.

Russia's proposal for SVO payments for border personnel aims to incentivize service in high-risk areas. Russian milbloggers' reports on volunteer initiatives providing equipment (armored trucks, drones) and appeals for donations highlight areas where central supply may be insufficient or specific needs are being met through alternative means. RU claimed focus on targeting UA logistics and C2 nodes indicates resource allocation towards specific interdiction efforts.

Communication and Coordination

The report mentions communication between command levels implicitly through the flow of operational reports and orders (e.g., AD responses, troop movements). Joint operations (e.g., UA OGP/SBU with Czech Police on cybercrime) demonstrate international coordination. Diplomatic engagements (Zelenskyy with Ramaphosa, London talks) highlight coordination efforts at the political/diplomatic level. RU claims of combined strikes (missile/drone, Iskander/Tornado-S) imply significant internal coordination. The reporting of RU SVR claims about UK/FR intelligence efforts to undermine Trump's peace efforts, even if questionable, speaks to Russian perceptions of and attempts to frame international coordination against their interests.

Humanitarian & Ethical Dimensions

The severe human cost of the conflict is consistently highlighted through reports of civilian casualties from Russian strikes (Kyiv, Kostiantynivka, Kharkiv, etc.), including specific tragic details (children killed, pregnant woman injured). The framing of these attacks as terrorism by Ukrainian officials underscores the ethical concerns regarding deliberate targeting of civilian areas. Issues related to detained civilians (journalist Roshchyna's death/torture allegations) and internal prison system problems (Kyiv SIZO inmate death) reflect ongoing humanitarian and human rights challenges. The forced deportation of children is a significant humanitarian concern raised by Zelenskyy. Support initiatives for those affected by the conflict (veterans, families, captivity survivors, people with disabilities) show efforts to address the humanitarian consequences. The ASTRA report on newborns being dressed in military uniforms in Russia raises ethical concerns about the militarization of childhood as a form of state propaganda. RU IO claiming UA responsibility for civilian harm or framing UA actions as terrorist reflect attempts to manipulate the humanitarian narrative for political gain.

Learning and Adaptation

(Already addressed under Capabilities, Logistics & Personnel/Learning and Adaptation)

Cybersecurity and Information Assurance

(Already addressed under Counter-Intelligence & Security/Cybersecurity and Information Assurance)

Human Oversight and Decision Authority

(Already addressed under Human Oversight and Decision Authority)

Operational Workflow

(Already addressed under Operational Workflow)

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