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Historical Intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing

Report Time
2025-04-23 16:34:31Z
2 months ago
Previous (2025-04-23 16:04:32Z)

Military Situation Update

As of Wed Apr 23 16:33:35 2025

I. Strategic & Air Warfare

  • Russian UAV/Missile Attacks: Large-scale Russian attack involving 134 aerial objects (67 strike UAVs, 47 imitator drones, 3 missiles) was reported. Ukrainian Air Force intercepted 67 strike UAVs. Civilian impacts confirmed in Kharkiv, Poltava, Donetsk, Odesa, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Ongoing widespread UAV activity persists across central, eastern, and southern Ukraine. Specific vectors noted towards Kryvyi Rih, Poltava suburbs, Chyhyryn, Kharkiv (from north), Kirovohrad Oblast (via Kamyanske), Kremenchuk, and Kropyvnytskyi. Targeting focus (per RU claims/observations) includes Nikolaev, Kharkiv (industrial zones, HELZ plant), Odesa, Kyiv, Poltava, Kirovohrad, Zaporizhzhia, Kramatorsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Brovary Oblasts. Russian sources reiterate claims of modernized 'Geran' drones with altered engine sounds and alleged UA AD ineffectiveness.
  • Civilian Casualties & Damage: Mass casualty event confirmed in Marhanets (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast) due to an FPV drone striking a civilian bus, resulting in 9 killed and 54 wounded (31 hospitalized, 4 serious - updated). Marhanets declared 3 days of mourning (Apr 23-25). Continued RU shelling/FPV attacks in Nikopolskyi raion (Marhanetska, Pokrovska hromadas) damaged 3 houses, farm building, resulted in new unspecified casualties. 1 WIA (72yo woman) in Synelnykivskyi raion from shelling. KAB/UAV attacks on Novopavlivska/Mezhivska hromadas damaged 12 houses, enterprise, power line, caused fire. Drone damaged solar panels in Zelenodolska hromada (Kryvyi Rih), no casualties. 1 civilian fatality confirmed in Kharkiv city following previous shelling. 2 wounded in Odesa (civilian infrastructure damage, large fires). Previous attack update for Zaporizhzhia Oblast reported the total number of injured had risen to 42 (14 hospitalized). Falling UAV debris caused a fire at a hotel-restaurant complex in Kyiv's Brovarskyi district; no casualties reported. RU sources claim 4 WIA (2 9yo twin girls - serious) in Lysychansk (LPR) from UA shelling. A car explosion occurred in Kyiv's Podilskyi district; police are investigating, no casualties reported.
  • Infrastructure Impact: Critical energy infrastructure destroyed in Kherson city/Oblast, a key facility supplying Kherson city, by sustained Russian attacks. Russian strikes targeted (per RU claims) industrial zone of "Meridian" enterprise in Odesa, industrial zone in Novobavarskyi district of Kharkiv (near railway junction, warehouses), a workshop of "Motor Sich" military-industrial enterprise in Zaporizhzhia, "Poltavaoblenergo" territory in Poltava (causing power outage). Russian MoD confirms hitting critical energy infrastructure in Kherson.
  • Ongoing Air Threats: Tactical aviation activity noted on northern-eastern, eastern, and southern directions with potential air strikes. KAB/KAR threats declared towards Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts. Reconnaissance UAVs reported over northern Chernihiv and western Sumy Oblasts, and east of Zaporizhzhia. Ballistic missile threats declared for Kyiv and Sumy (later cleared). New KAB threats declared for Sumy, Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Reconnaissance UAV threat in southern Sumy Oblast, AD engaged. Groups of Russian strike UAVs heading from north of Luhansk Oblast towards Kharkiv Oblast.
  • Ukrainian Strikes vs. Russian Territory: Ukrainian sources confirm hits on the 'Alabuga' special economic zone in Tatarstan, targeting the drone production facility, reporting six aircraft with 250kg warheads used, one downed and at least five hitting targets approximately 1700km from Ukraine, causing secondary explosions. UA source cites NASA satellite imagery showing fires at 51 GRAU depots, potentially related to the Kirzhach arsenal fire aftermath. RU MoD claimed 1 UA UAV destroyed over Tatarstan, while RU sources claimed 4 shot down near the "Alabuga" plant. Alleged UA drone attacks over the past day reportedly destroyed 56 houses in Bryansk Oblast (Requires verification). An FPV drone attack in Belgorod Oblast reportedly injured 1 civilian. Drone activity and explosions reported over Yelabuga, Tatarstan, near a military drone factory. RU source claims UA drone fell on schoolyard in Makiivka (occupied Donetsk), did not detonate. Ongoing detonatons but gradually ceasing at the 51st GRAU arsenal (Kirzhach, Vladimir Oblast) following the likely UA deep strike (Apr 22); extensive forest fires persist. State of emergency declared in Kirzhachsky district settlements, schools/enterprises closed, roads blocked. 4 civilians reported injured from разлетающихся снарядов near Kirzhach. Temporary flight restrictions imposed at Kazan and Ulyanovsk airports (Tatarstan, Ulyanovsk Oblast).
  • Russian Claims of UA Border Attacks: RU MoD claims repelling an attempt by UA forces to invade Kursk region on April 23, stating the "Sever Group of Forces" hit UA units near Gornal and Oleshnya and inflicted over 170 casualties, destroying a Bradley IFV, other armor, artillery, and drone control points. RU MoD also claims massive cumulative UA losses in the Kursk direction since the start of hostilities (>75,710 personnel, hundreds/thousands of equipment units - Basurin claims approaching 76k). RU claims destruction of UA military equipment, including a BTR, near Oleshnya, Kursk. RU source claims UA shelling of Lysychansk (LPR), injuring 4 civilians (2 women, 2 9yo twin girls - serious). RU source (Poddubny) claims RU "North" group near Hornal achieved flanking maneuver, compressed remaining UA forces to <20 sq km. TASS reports over 190 civilians killed and 372 wounded in Kursk Oblast since the start of the invasion (cumulative figure).

II. Naval Activity

  • Black Sea: Two Russian Kalibr missile carriers active, elevating the missile threat (Potential total salvo: 12 missiles). Italian Air Force (NATO) Gulfstream G550 AEW aircraft conducting surveillance.
  • Sea of Azov: No enemy vessels detected.
  • Mediterranean Sea: Three Russian warships present, including two Kalibr carriers (up to 12 missiles).
  • Kerch Strait: Transit continues; Russia persists in disabling AIS.
  • Sevastopol Incident (Latest - RU IO): Russian writer claims announcement for his book presentation is "fake created by enemy military intelligence" to cause a "large-scale provocation." Bus with "Artek" children in accident in Sevastopol, 8 hospitalized (輕傷, expected discharge Apr 24).

III. Frontline Operations

  • Overall Assessment: Russian forces maintain offensive pressure, particularly on the Pokrovsk axis. Increased Russian activity is noted on the Zaporizhzhia and Toretsk axes. Ukrainian intelligence assesses Russian forces are regrouping and transferring troops/equipment from Crimea and Russia to the southern front for expected intensification. Heavy use of UAVs (including incendiary), KABs, and artillery continues. Ukrainian forces are actively defending, using drones for reconnaissance and strikes, and conducting tactical counter-attacks. 144 combat clashes were recorded on April 22; 83 combat clashes reported as of 16:00 UTC on April 23, with ongoing clashes. Tactical Group "Vuhledar" reports decreased RU assaults on the southern Donetsk front (Apr 16-22) but force accumulation for a large offensive aimed at the Dnipropetrovsk/Donetsk border by May 9.
  • Russian Objectives: OSUV "Khortytsia" reports Russia plans to reach the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by May 9, continuing attacks on the Pokrovsk axis. Ukrainian analyst Mykhailo Samus assesses this RU goal is unlikely to be achieved by May 9.
  • Kursk/Sumy Border Zone: Ukrainian operations continue in Kursk Oblast, repelling 22 RU assaults on Apr 22, and 8 assaults as of 16:00 UTC on Apr 23, with 3 ongoing clashes. 9 RU POWs captured (Apr 20). Intensive fighting near Hornal is reported. Clearing operations reportedly nearing completion in Oleshnya. RU MoD reports repelling UA attempts to invade Kursk region on April 23, claiming destruction of UA units and equipment. RU claims of clearing Hornal monastery and Hornal being the last UA-held settlement in Kursk Oblast. BARS-KURSK volunteer brigade active. UA sources claim destroying RU BTR near Oleshnya with FPV drones. Mine clearing operations continue. RU source (Poddubny) claims RU "North" group near Hornal is finishing off UA groups, achieved flanking, compressed remaining UA forces to <20 sq km. RU MoD video shows 40th Separate Marine Brigade operations near Hornal, claiming liberation of monastery and hitting UA positions/equipment/manpower. Battalion commander "Antey" interviewed. Ukrainian border guards reportedly destroyed a Russian radar station on the Northern direction using FPV drones.
  • Kharkiv Direction: 4 Russian attacks were repelled near Vovchansk and Vovchanski Khutory as of 16:00 UTC (Apr 23). Situation complex but controlled. Russian forces conducted 3 air strikes (5 KABs), used 86 kamikaze drones, and 751 shelling incidents (Apr 22). RU MoD claims hitting UA manpower/equipment near Vovchansk, Liptsy, Malye Prokhody. UA 3rd Assault Brigade drones active. RU source (Dnevnik Desantnika) claims RU assault groups actively pushing into UA defense near Vovchansk and Lyptsi, supported by FABs and long-range artillery, claiming strikes on UA groups and equipment. RU source (Colonelcassad) shares video of FPV/aircraft drone strikes on comms tower/node near Slobodske.
  • Toretsk Axis: 13 Russian attacks repelled (Apr 22). As of 16:00 UTC (Apr 23), 16 Russian attacks reported near Dachne, Krymske, Toretsk, Leonidivka, with 5 ongoing. Russian forces confirmed control of Sukha Balka. Russian sources claim successful advances near Tarasivka (claimed liberated by Basurin), towards Nelepivka, entering Dachne. Claimed advance up to 800m south of Petrivka. RU 150th MSD reportedly advancing towards Romanovka and Staraya Nikolaevka. DeepState reports enemy continues to develop success southwest of Toretsk, occupying Panteleymonivka, Valentynivka, almost all of Sukha Balka, and assaulting Romanivka. DeepState notes this creates an unpleasant situation where RU found a weak point, allowing flanking maneuver around Shcherbynivka. Prediction of RU push to Oleksandro-Kalynove and Katerynivka for logistics control of Toretsk. Ukrainian forces captured an African mercenary from Senegal near Toretsk (Butusov Plus reports capture by 49th Assault Battalion, provided medical aid). RU source reports Russian military finding a way to replace destroyed armored vehicles by sending personnel on scooters ("samokaty") to the front line, highlighting losses and logistical challenges.
  • Pokrovsk Axis (Highest Intensity): 53 Russian assaults repelled (Apr 22). As of 16:00 UTC (Apr 23), 31 Russian attempts reported near Kalynove, Zelene Pole, Novotoretske, Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Vidrodzhennya, Zvirove, Uspenivka, Nadiyivka, Kotlyarivka, Andriyivka, with 27 repelled and 4 ongoing. Russian sources claim resumed envelopment efforts and advances despite fierce Ukrainian resistance near Selydove. RU MoD claims "Tsentr" Group of Forces improved position. RU claims T-72 tank supported assault, destroying UA stronghold firing positions despite UA FPV attacks, alleging EW effectiveness against UA FPV drones. Russia continues attacks aiming for the Dnipropetrovsk border by May 9. RVvoenkor (RU IO) shares video compilation of "🅾️tvazhnyye" (RU forces) activity on Pokrovsk direction on Apr 22, claiming destruction of NATO equipment, infantry, and artillery.
  • Novopavlivsk Axis (South Donetsk / Vremivka): 17 Russian attacks repelled (Apr 22). As of 16:00 UTC (Apr 23), 8 Russian attacks reported near Kostiantynopil, Rozlyv, Rivnopil, Novodarivka, with 4 ongoing. Tactical Group "Vuhledar" reports decreased RU assaults but force accumulation for a large offensive aiming for the Dnipropetrovsk/Donetsk border by May 9. RU Su-34 strike claimed on UA PVD in Bohatyr. RU UAV incendiary strikes claimed (Shakhtarsk Dir). RU sources claim advances towards Bohatyr/Otradne, disrupting UA rotation, destroying UA artillery, destroying UA M113 APC and personnel near Bohatyr. RU source ('Dnevnik Desantnika') reports increased UA drone activity hindering RU advances near Velyka Novosilka direction, positional battles near Vilne Pole. Russian sapper operations reported in the settlement of Yegorivka. RU source (Colonelcassad citing Voin DV) provides detailed claims of advances on South Donetsk direction (Bohatyr, Otradnoe, Volnoe Pole), including territorial gains and claimed significant UA personnel (>45) and equipment (M113, 3 AFVs) losses from counterattacks. Russian UAV operators (29th Combined Arms Army, Vostok group) reportedly dropped leaflets near Bohatyr urging UA servicemen to surrender.
  • Zaporizhzhia Axis (Orikhiv / Polohy): 5 Russian attacks repelled (Apr 22). As of 16:00 UTC (Apr 23), 3 Russian attempts reported near Stepove, Shcherbaky, Lobkove, with 1 ongoing. Increased Russian assault activity is reported, with positional fighting and Ukrainian counterattacks. Ukrainian intelligence assesses troop transfers for expected intensification. High activity of Russian FPV drones is reported. Ukrainian GUR units claim destroying over 100 pieces of Russian equipment and eliminating over 150 occupiers on the Zaporizhzhia direction over the past week. RU source (Mash) claims a UA drone attacked a civilian official's car, no casualties. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports delivery of substantial aid including vehicles, 100 drones (day camera), EW systems, drone detectors, and other equipment to units on the Zaporizhzhia front. Explosives experts report difficult but controlled situation regarding mine clearance in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, with over 350 trips made since the start of the year.
  • Dnipropetrovsk / Kryvyi Rih Axis: Oleksandr Vilkul reports Marhanets FPV bus attack (updated casualties: 9 KIA, 54 WIA), increased WIA. Reports continued RU shelling/FPV attacks in Nikopolskyi raion (Marhanetska, Pokrovska hromadas) damaging 3 houses, farm building, new unspecified casualties. Reports 1 WIA (72yo woman) in Synelnykivskyi raion from shelling. KAB/UAV attacks on Novopavlivska/Mezhivska hromadas damaged 12 houses, enterprise, power line, caused fire. Drone damaged solar panels in Zelenodolska hromada (Kryvyi Rih), no casualties.
  • Crimea: RU MoD video shows 810th Separate Marine Brigade operations near Hornal (Kursk border), implies rotation or transfer from Crimea.

IV. Political & Diplomatic Context

  • London Peace Talks (Apr 23): Planned ministerial meeting of UK, US, FR, DE, UA Foreign Ministers did not occur at the ministerial level. Discussions are proceeding between officials and experts. Postponement attributed to Ukraine's rejection of reported US proposals involving territorial concessions (Crimea recognition, freezing borders) and preference to first discuss a full ceasefire. US Special Envoy Keith Kellogg leading US delegation. Ukrainian FM Andriy Sybiha expected for bilateral meeting with UK FM David Lammy. Low expectations for breakthrough reported. Russian sources claim the meeting was on the verge of failure and downgraded due to Ukraine's unwillingness to accept proposed plans, specifically referencing potential US recognition of Crimea's status and sanction lifting. They claim Rubio canceled participation and European ministers withdrew due to Ukrainian "radical position".
  • US Stance: US Vice President JD Vance reportedly stated US proposal involves freezing borders and requiring some territorial exchanges. Vance reportedly stated US might withdraw if "clear and fair proposal" rejected by both sides. US does not support Russian demilitarization demands and does not object to European security guarantees for Ukraine. UA/RU sources quote US Senator Marco Rubio stating there is "no military end" to the war, Russia won't take all Ukraine, Ukraine won't return to 2014 borders, and claims better understanding of RU position after talks. Russian source (Basurin) frames Rubio's statements as evidence UA/EU failed to force RU to negotiate on Western terms. Ukrainian analyst Samus does not believe Trump's stance on Ukraine will change, citing his view that Ukraine is weak and Russia is strong, and that he can make more money with Russia. Dnevnik Desantnika quotes Rubio saying Russia will set harsher terms if US-led talks fail and that the US understands Russia's position better. US Defense Sec Hagset (incorrect title - likely meant Gen. Hebert?) reportedly stated US can no longer be European security guarantor.
  • Trump's Views: Donald Trump issued a statement calling Zelenskyy's refusal to recognize Russian Crimea "very harmful" to peace talks, claiming Crimea was lost years ago without a fight and is not a subject for discussion, citing Russian submarine bases there. He argues Ukraine's situation is "horrible" and Zelenskyy must choose between peace (implying concessions) or losing the entire country in three years, calling Zelenskyy's stance "inflammatory" and prolonging the "killing field". He states they are "very close to a Deal" and urges Ukraine, who he claims has "no cards", to "GET IT DONE". RU sources widely amplified and framed Trump's statements as confirming Ukraine's weak position, blaming Zelenskyy for hindering peace, and indicating a long war unless concessions are made.
  • Ukrainian Stance (Official): Ukraine's First Vice Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko stated Ukraine is ready to negotiate but not surrender. Full ceasefire (land, air, sea) is a necessary first step, frozen conflict/Crimea recognition rejected. Ukraine demands binding security guarantees if NATO membership not immediate. Head of President's Office Andriy Yermak called meeting with UK, FR, DE national security advisors "valuable", Ukraine committed to President Trump's peace efforts (Note: Trump is not currently President), but Russia refuses unconditional ceasefire and manipulates talks. Ukrainian language ombudsman Kremen rejected US envoy Witkoff's statement linking Russian language in occupied regions to potential Russian control, calling it a play for the Kremlin and violating international agreements. Ukrainian analyst Khomenko assesses "Trump's plan" resembles Russian "SVO goals". Zelenskyy's statement on not recognizing Russian Crimea was made public.
  • European Stance: UK and French officials reportedly open to de facto recognition of current line of control for robust security guarantees ("Korean War-style" truce). EU reportedly opposes lifting sanctions before negotiations conclude and opposes recognizing Crimea as Russian. Estonian PM Kallas rejects Crimea recognition and questions US approach. Office of French President Macron stated Europe will demand respect for Ukraine's territorial integrity. Estonia planning new military base near Russian border in Narva.
  • Russian Stance on Negotiations: Russian sources dismiss Western reports of readiness to freeze conflict, emphasize controlling "new regions." Frame London talks downgrade as Ukrainian inflexibility. Kremlin reiterates readiness for talks if Ukraine lifts legal ban on negotiating with Putin. Peskov stated discussions confidential, denied FT report of Putin offering frontline freeze. Russia remains against deploying peacekeepers. Russian MFA (Lavrov) stated next round of Russian-American negotiations soon. Valentina Matviyenko stated Russia will never participate in negotiations on European troops in Ukraine. Russian political analyst Vladimir Kornilov suggests US "testing the waters." RU source (Rybar) reports Russia put 21 British parliamentarians on a "stop-list" in retaliation for anti-Russian actions and support for Ukraine. Peskov stated Russia wants negotiations, Europe wants war, and Russia will achieve its goals either peacefully or militarily. Peskov denied Russia has territorial claims on Baltic states. Peskov stated Putin respects Trump and they agree that refusing dialogue is absurd, united by a willingness to solve complex issues through discussion.
  • International Relations: Russia protested to Japan over intention to use frozen Russian assets for credit to Ukraine. Sergey Naryshkin called potential EU official bans from 9 May events "disgusting." Polish FM Sikorski suggests China could force Putin to end the war. Ukrainian PM Shmyhal and government team in Washington for financial meetings (World Bank, IMF), plan to finalize agreement with US on access to Ukrainian mineral resources. US reportedly considers reducing tariffs for China (WSJ). Rybar analysis reports on Turkish/Azerbaijani media expansion and Russian attempts to build relations with Somaliland. Russia's Federal Bailiff Service initiated proceedings (Apr 17) to seize assets of former official Anatoly Chubais. TASS reports US Senator Marco Rubio stated US wants to prevent potential armed conflict with China. Russia occupied second place after US in value of gas imports to EU in February. Russia granted citizenship to several foreign nationals, including from Germany, France, Iran, and Serbia (April 23 Presidential decree). This is framed as recognizing support for Donbas.

V. Logistics, Capabilities & Losses

  • Ukrainian:
    • Civilian Losses/Damage: 9 KIA, 54 WIA (31 hospitalized, 4 serious) (Marhanets bus attack, updated WIA). 6 WIA (Poltava). 1 KIA (Kharkiv city), 4 WIA (Kupyansk), 2 WIA (Raivska hromada), 2 WIA (Odesa). 42 WIA total from previous Zaporizhzhia attack (14 hospitalized). 1 WIA (72yo woman) in Synelnykivskyi raion. Additional damage to civilian infrastructure across multiple oblasts, including additional damage reported today in Nikopolskyi and Synelnykivskyi raions and solar panels in Kryvyi Rih. Critical energy facility destroyed (Kherson). Hospital in Kostiantynivka (Donetsk) hit by RU drone strike. RU claims 4 WIA (2 girls in serious condition) in Lysychansk, LPR from UA strike. Kyiv car explosion reported, no casualties.
    • Military Losses (RU Claims): Approx. 1210 personnel KIA/WIA (GSh, Apr 22). RU MoD claims total losses over past day exceed 1265 personnel, numerous equipment units. RU MoD claims over 170 personnel and a Bradley IFV were lost in the Kursk direction in the past 24 hours. Claims massive cumulative losses in Kursk direction (>75,710 personnel - Basurin claims approaching 76k). Basurin claims cumulative UA losses in Kursk/Sumy areas >170 KIA/WIA with equipment losses (Bradley, armor, arty, mortar, BREM, 11 drone control points, 2 ammo depots). Basurin claims over 850 losses on Donbas directions in past day with up to 10 ammo depots destroyed. RU source (Colonelcassad citing Voin DV) claims over 45 UA personnel and equipment (M113, 3 AFVs - Kozak, MaxPro) losses from repelled counterattacks on South Donetsk axis. Colonelcassad video shows destroyed UA BTR-4 near Slobodske (Kharkiv). RVvoenkor claims destruction of NATO equipment, infantry, artillery near Pokrovsk (Apr 22 compilation). Ru source reports Russian military finding a way to replace destroyed armored vehicles by sending personnel on scooters ("samokaty") to the front line, highlighting losses.
    • Losses (Officer - UA Claim): Claimed elimination of several named RU officers, including Major Rasul Zhantuyev (Tu-22M3 commander) and Lt Col Alexander Bezin (FSB reserve, 155th Naval Inf Bde Cdr).
    • Losses (Confirmed/Observed): Ongoing disruption at Kirzhach arsenal. Visual confirmation of multiple downed/neutralized RU drones (Geran/Shahed types). RU source confirms 4 UA drones shot down over Tatarstan near the Yelabuga drone factory, with one UAV destroyed confirmed by RU MoD; UA source claims at least 5 hits. UA source (Operativnyi ZSU) cites NASA satellite imagery showing fires at 51 GRAU depots. Captured African mercenary from Senegal near Toretsk (Butusov Plus reports capture by 49th Assault Battalion, provided medical aid). Colonelcassad video shows aftermath of FABs hitting UA temporary deployment/concentration areas. Ukrainian forces (Krila Do Pekla unit, 103rd Territorial Defense Brigade) reportedly destroyed a Russian tank using 3 FPV drones.
    • Capabilities: Active AD & EW (Confirmed 67 strike UAVs intercepted, 47 imitators neutralized, 4 Shaheds downed over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast). Successful missile elimination reported. Highly active drone operations for reconnaissance and strikes (FPV, coordinating ground assaults, destroying armor/equipment). 63rd Brigade anti-aircraft gunners destroyed expensive RU drones ($300k Merlin-VR, Supercam) using cheap drones. Psychological support hotline for POW/MIA families established. Alleged RU informant detained in Cherkasy Oblast. Railway worker sentenced to 15 years for state treason. Formation of new 8th Air Assault Corps reported. UA GUR units claim significant equipment and personnel losses inflicted on Russian forces on the Zaporizhzhia direction over the past week. Ukrainian sources claim successful attacks on the Alabuga drone production facility in Tatarstan, using aircraft with 250kg warheads and achieving at least 5 hits. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports delivery of vehicles, 100 drones (day camera), EW systems, drone detectors, and other equipment to units on the Zaporizhzhia front. Coordination HQ for POW/MIA active. SBU and National Police active in internal security. UA 66th Brigade operating on Lyman axis. Mine clearing ongoing in Kursk border area. Civilian resilience efforts highlighted. UA units (117th Brigade "Zvirobiy", 4th MB "Ci4") use FPV drones against RU infantry, vehicles. Fundraising appeals highlight severe impact of RU FPV drones on MEDEVAC and ammunition resupply, causing casualties, and need for EW systems and Mavic drones. WarGonzo reports Ukraine imported 127.8k civilian UAVs ($371.3M) in Q1 2025. Medical support capabilities highlighted by 22nd Mechanized Brigade reporting. 128th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade recruiting personnel (UAV operators/masters, tank gunners, infantry squad commanders, combat medics, mech-drivers/drivers). GSh ZSU shares photos/videos of artillery units from the 32nd Separate Artillery Brigade, highlighting their role ("change the course of battle with accurate fire"). Explosives experts reporting on ongoing mine clearance efforts in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (over 350 trips since start of year). Ukrainian border guards reportedly destroyed a Russian radar station on the Northern direction using FPV drones.
    • Needs/Gaps: Continued need for EW and drones highlighted in fundraising appeals. Need for increased exchanges of POWs and access for international organizations emphasized by Coordination HQ. 128th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade recruiting indicates specific personnel needs.
    • Personnel: 9 RU POWs captured (Kursk, Apr 20). Meetings held with families of UA POWs/MIAs. Change of Command at 30th Mech Bde. Alleged forced mobilization attempt in Lutsk reported. Capture of an African mercenary from Senegal near Toretsk by 49th Assault Battalion (Butusov Plus reports capture and medical aid).
  • Russian:
    • Losses (UA Claims): Approx. 1210 personnel KIA/WIA (GSh, Apr 22). 96 personnel (Kharkiv Dir, Apr 22). Significant equipment losses claimed. UA GUR units claim eliminating over 150 occupiers and destroying over 100 pieces of equipment on the Zaporizhzhia direction over the past week. RU BTR destroyed by UA FPV near Oleshnya, Kursk. RU BMP destroyed by mines (UA video). RU soldiers eliminated in close combat near Toretsk (UA video). Several RU infantry, motorcyclist, 2 BMPs destroyed by UA drones on Pokrovsk axis (UA source citing 117th Brigade). Several RU infantry killed by UA FPVs (4th MB "Ci4"). Colonelcassad video shows destroyed UA BTR-4 near Slobodske (Kharkiv). Basurin claims cumulative UA losses in Kursk/Sumy areas >170 KIA/WIA with equipment losses (Bradley, armor, arty, mortar, BREM, 11 drone control points, 2 ammo depots). Basurin claims over 850 losses on Donbas directions in past day with up to 10 ammo depots destroyed. RU source (Colonelcassad citing Voin DV) claims over 45 UA personnel and equipment (M113, 3 AFVs - Kozak, MaxPro) losses from repelled counterattacks on South Donetsk axis. RU tank reportedly destroyed by UA drones (Krila Do Pekla unit).
    • Losses (Officer - UA Claim): Claimed elimination of several high-ranking officers, including Major Rasul Zhantuyev (Tu-22M3 commander) and Lt Col Alexander Bezin (FSB reserve, 155th Naval Inf Bde Cdr).
    • Losses (Confirmed/Observed): Ongoing significant disruption at Kirzhach arsenal. Visual confirmation of multiple downed/neutralized RU drones (Geran/Shahed types). RU source confirms 4 UA drones shot down over Tatarstan near the Yelabuga drone factory, with one confirmed destroyed by RU MoD; UA source claims at least 5 hits. UA source (Operativnyi ZSU) cites NASA satellite imagery showing fires at 51 GRAU depots. Moscow City incident involves fire/explosion. Colonelcassad video shows aftermath of FABs hitting UA temporary deployment/concentration areas.
    • Capabilities: Sustained heavy UAV/KAB/missile/artillery strikes. Active tactical aviation. Increased Black Sea Kalibr capacity. AD active over RU (claimed interceptions over 7 regions). Claims targeting UA production/ammo/comms/arty/PVDs/howitzer/armor/strongholds. Confirmed capture of Sukha Balka, claimed liberation of Tarasivka, claimed advances near Nelepivka, Dachne, Petrovka, Panteleymonivka, Valentynivka, Bohatyr, Otradne. Claimed successful use of EW to counter UA FPV drones (Pokrovsk). Use of drones for coordinating ground assaults and strikes (Arkhangel Spetsnaza). Activities of BARS-KURSK volunteer brigade detailed. Use of incendiary UAVs (Shakhtarsk Dir). Detailed reconnaissance/planning before assaults. Use of drones to track vehicles to PVDs. Claimed use of motorcycles for rapid assaults (Novopavlivsk). Putin stated production of EW means increased by more than double last year, and ordered accelerating production of robot complexes, uncrewed boats, and combat lasers. Putin demanded active use of AI on the battlefield and stated all armies are studying Russian experience. Putin stated FPV drones are still not sufficient but production will be increased, calling them the "most serious factor for combat success," despite daily delivery of ~4000 FPV drones. RU MoD claims destroying numerous UA equipment including JDAM, HIMARS, Vampire MLRS rockets, UAVs, PzH 2000, AN/TPQ-48 radar, Kvertus and Nota EW stations, M113s. RU MoD video shows T-80BV tank operations and Mi-28NM helicopter strike in Kursk border area. RU MoD video shows 40th Separate Marine Brigade operations near Hornal, claiming liberation of monastery and hitting UA positions/equipment/manpower. RU MoD video shows 810th Marine Brigade operations near Hornal, implies rotation or transfer from Crimea. Russian sapper units active (Yegorivka). New state-backed programs promoting sports/rehab for SVO veterans. Two Majors report South Korea accelerating USV production, mentions Putin's order re accelerating RU USV, robotics, combat laser production. Two Majors images show soldiers with gear, including a patch "Glory of the Major", and drone operation from a dugout. RVvoenkor shares video compilation of RU activity near Pokrovsk (Apr 22), claiming destruction of NATO equipment, infantry, artillery. Russian UAV operators reportedly dropped leaflets near Bohatyr urging UA servicemen to surrender. Creation of BARS-39 Combat Army Reserve force in Kaliningrad Oblast reported, involving reservists and contract soldiers for regional territorial defense, undergoing training at Khmelevka training ground.
    • Needs/Gaps: Fundraising appeals highlight need for night vision devices, Mavic drones, drone detectors, radios, 5.45mm magazines for Zaporizhzhia axis (7th Guards Air Assault Division). Putin stated FPV drones are still not sufficient. Lavrov stated reducing labor migrants likely not in Russia's interest due to labor shortages. Need for satellite communication highlighted by RU source. Need for high-quality personnel selection highlighted by RU source. RU source notes UA FPV superiority due to localized assembly. New fundraising appeal specifically for an EW system for a unit in the Kursk border area. Crowdfunding appeal for DJI Mavic 3T and 3Pro drones for the 60th Separate Motor Rifle Brigade's UAV operators. RU source reports Russian military finding a way to replace destroyed armored vehicles by sending personnel on scooters ("samokaty") to the front line, highlighting logistical challenges and needs.
    • Personnel/Morale Issues: Captured soldier testimony indicates poor preparedness/morale. Arrest of alleged mercenary recruiter in Kyrgyzstan. Reports of forced conscription/abuses. Mercenary complaint video highlights command incompetence. Captured Russian soldier (Sergey Kholodkov) video disseminated. Russian source claims Ukrainian forces in Sukha Balka fired on their own soldiers. Krasnoyarsk official exposed for falsely claiming SVO participation. Activist Alexander Zhelutukhin reported alleged torture by security forces during detention in Voronezh (ASTRA reporting). Igor Strelkov comments on law against discrediting army potentially targeting "angry patriots". Russian source reports traffic accident involving alleged Rosgvardia officer. Confirmed death of 20yo seaman. Captured African mercenary near Toretsk. RU source (Fighterbomber) discusses potential internal accountability issues ("Leonidich"). New state initiatives promoting sports/rehab for SVO veterans. Donetsk resident who signed contract with RU military sentenced to 7.5 years for murder committed the day before deployment. Mobilized soldier from North Ossetia with severe injuries reportedly sent back to front line from hospital with festering wound, contradicting medical commission ruling and raising concerns about personnel management and treatment.

VI. Humanitarian & Ethical Dimensions

  • Civilian Impact (Ukraine): 9 KIA, 54 WIA (31 hospitalized, 4 serious) (Marhanets bus attack, confirmed RU FPV drone strike on civilian workers). 6 WIA (Poltava). 1 KIA (Kharkiv city), 4 WIA (Kupyansk), 2 WIA (Raivska hromada), 2 WIA (Odesa). 42 WIA total from previous Zaporizhzhia attack (14 hospitalized). 1 WIA (72yo woman) in Synelnykivskyi raion. Additional damage to civilian infrastructure in Nikopolskyi and Synelnykivskyi raions, and Kryvyi Rih. Widespread damage to civilian infrastructure, including destruction of the Kherson energy facility. Hospital in Kostiantynivka (Donetsk) hit by RU drone strike, no patient/staff casualties reported but damage confirmed. Marhanets community declared days of mourning (Apr 23-25). Ruins of Bakhmut decorated with propaganda banners. IDP living conditions improved in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Bus with "Artek" children in accident in Sevastopol, 8 hospitalized with minor injuries. RU source (Mash) claims a UA drone attacked a civilian official's car in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, no casualties. RU source (WarGonzo) claims 4 WIA (incl. 2 children serious) in Lysychansk from alleged UA shelling. Kyiv car explosion reported, no casualties.
  • Civilian Impact (Russia/Occupied Areas): Claim 56 houses destroyed by UA drones in Bryansk Oblast. Claim 1 civilian WIA in Belgorod Oblast (Novaya Tavolzhanka) and 1 WIA in Bryansk Oblast (Podlesnye Novoselki) from alleged UA FPV drones. Civilian impact reported in Tatarstan near Yelabuga drone factory. 4 civilians WIA, 533 evacuated due to Kirzhach arsenal fire/detonations. Claim UA drone fell on schoolyard in Makiivka, did not detonate. RU source reports damage and looting at a recreation base in Novaya Tavolzhanka, Belgorod Oblast. Claim 4 WIA (2 9-year-old girls in serious condition) in Lysychansk, LPR from alleged UA strike. Mine contamination remains a significant issue in Kursk border areas. UA source (Operativnyi ZSU) shares photos/videos of damaged civilian buildings, likely related to Kirzhach aftermath. TASS reports over 190 civilians killed and 372 wounded in Kursk Oblast since the start of the invasion (cumulative figure).
  • LOAC Violations/Concerns: Confirmed Russian attack causing mass civilian casualties in Marhanets (FPV drone on civilian bus). Persistent Russian attacks impacting civilian infrastructure and destroying the Kherson energy facility. Russian drone strike hitting hospital in Kostiantynivka. Russian source claims Ukrainian forces fired on their own soldiers trying to leave positions near Sukha Balka. Russian claims of extensive Ukrainian attacks on civilian housing in Bryansk Oblast and civilian casualties in Belgorod, Bryansk, and Lysychansk. Russian claims UA drone fell on schoolyard (Makiivka). Russian claims alleged UA attacks on Tatarstan targeted civilian infrastructure near the drone factory. Russian court sentenced 3 alleged SBU agents to 23-24 years for terror acts in DNR (2016-2018). Ukrainian Coordination HQ highlights lack of official Russian information on POWs and limited ICRC access. Reports of alleged torture of activist in Voronezh by security forces (ASTRA reporting). UA source (Butusov Plus) reports Ukrainian forces captured and provided medical aid to a Russian mercenary (Senegalese), indicating compliance with humane treatment of POWs. RU source (WarGonzo) claims 4 WIA (incl. 2 children in serious condition) in Lysychansk from alleged UA shelling. RU source (Mash) claims a UA drone attacked a civilian official's car in Zaporizhzhia, no casualties. Report of injured Russian mobilized soldier sent back to front from hospital despite injury, raising concerns about adherence to medical guidelines and humane treatment.

VII. Information Operations

  • Russian IO: Promoting Sukha Balka and Tarasivka captures and claimed advances near Toretsk/Petrovka/Dachne, Bohatyr/Otradne. Highlighting Russian strikes (Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Poltava energy, Odesa "Unitech"/Meridian, Kherson transformers/energy facility, Druzhba positions, Stepne workshop/depot, Staraya Nikolaevka, claimed hits on military airfield infra, production, drone sites, Vampire MLRS, TPDs in 147 areas, hidden fuel depot, Gvozdika SPG, FABs with UMPK on UA positions, Motor Sich workshop). Emphasizing alleged Ukrainian attacks on Russian civilians/territory (Bryansk 56 houses claim, Belgorod casualty, Makiivka school drone, Tatarstan drone attacks near factory, claiming 4 shot down, Bryansk FPV civilian injury claim, Lysychansk WIA including children claim, cumulative Kursk casualties since invasion). Dismissing reports of willingness to freeze conflict/compromise, denying specific proposals. Blaming Ukraine/downplaying London talks downgrade, promoting analysis framing US/RU direct talks over EU objections, highlighting Rubio statements on US understanding of RU position and potential harsher terms for Ukraine, and Matviyenko's stance on European troops. Amplifying Trump's statements blaming Zelenskyy for hindering peace by not conceding Crimea, portraying Ukraine's situation as dire, and urging a quick "Deal". Promoting Russian military "heroes"/units (T-72 crew, BARS-KURSK, 16th NBC Bde, 810th Marine Brigade, "Rubikon" Center, "Vega" unit, 40th Marine Bde), highlighting specific operations (Kursk border, Hornal, Oleshnya, Novopavlivsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk), publishing battlefield videos (tank ops, helicopter strikes, FPV drone attacks, drone compilation by Arkhangel Spetsnaza, Colonelcassad FPV/aircraft drone video). Framing Sukha Balka capture's strategic impact and detailed planning involved. Promoting alleged decreased Ukrainian air defense effectiveness vs. Geran drones. Promoting claimed EW success vs FPVs (Pokrovsk). Promoting coordination of ground assaults via drones. Promoting alleged finding of abandoned UA equipment (Kursk). Highlighting internal crackdown (stripping citizenship, sentencing of alleged SBU agents, alleged torture of activist), exposing false SVO participation claim by deputy. Promoting support for SVO veterans and families. Fundraising appeals. Promoting Putin's statements on increasing military production (EW, robots, boats, lasers, FPVs), FPV importance, AI advantage, stating all armies are studying Russian experience, noting issues with drone numbers and satellite infrastructure. Framing proposed UA "National Resistance Training Centers" as forced mobilization. Claiming Russian control percentages. Promoting visual of Russian aircraft/ordnance. Documenting decoration of Bakhmut. Claiming Poland/Baltics energy issues. Anticipating captured soldier will claim coercion. Highlighting protests by servicemen. Naryshkin commenting on EU 9 May ban. Promoting claimed success repelling UA invasion attempt in Kursk (RU MoD, Basurin, Poddubny). Promoting massive cumulative UA losses in Kursk direction (Basurin graphic). Using "Immortal Regiment Online". Highlighting property damage/looting by RU forces in Belgorod (ASTRA). Rybar reports on Turkish/Azerbaijani media expansion and RU diplomatic activity in Somalia. Using Moscow City incident for IO. Promoting prosecution/asset seizure against Anatoly Chubais. Highlighting state-backed sports and rehabilitation programs. Rybar reports sanctions on 21 UK parliamentarians. Basurin frames Rubios comments as failure for UA/EU. Poddubny interviews commander "Antey". Mash claims UA drone attacked civilian official's car in Zaporizhzhia. Colonelcassad claims Kh-39 strike on UA drone control point. Colonelcassad shares video claiming Sevastopol book presentation is fake operation. Two Majors shares images of "Daily life of a soldier", some showing soldiers, gear ("Glory of the Major" patch), and drone operation from a dugout, also reports South Korea accelerating USV production and mentions Putin's order re accelerating RU military production. RVvoenkor shares video compilation of RU activity near Pokrovsk, claiming destruction of NATO equipment. Colonelcassad shares photo of banner commemorating "132 communist fighters who died", framing SVO as anti-fascist struggle. AV Bogomaz reports on meeting in Bryansk Presidential Reception Office, highlighting official activity in border region, implies focus on issues relevant to conflict (IO framing). Donetsk resident's murder conviction before deployment used to highlight legal consequences for volunteers (IO). Federal Emergency in Zabaykalsky Krai due to wildfires reported (IO framing the scale). Politologist defending status of Chelyabinsk Governor's wife as "First Lady" highlighting social/charity work including aid to SVO participants/families (IO promoting support for war effort via civilian efforts). Moscow News spreading scam alert video (general IO). WarGonzo promoting merchandise with North Korean themes, highlighting support for "North Korean brothers" (IO promoting international ties and narrative). Mobilization News reporting on injured mobilized soldier sent back to front (IO highlighting issues with mobilization/medical care). Alex Parker Returns amplifying Trump's statements and adding pro-Russian commentary. TASS reporting on Peskov's statements re negotiations, territorial claims, and Putin-Trump relationship (official state IO). TASS reporting on Russian Minister attending funeral in Vatican (diplomatic IO). TASS reporting on Sevastopol bus accident (civilian incident). Igor Artamonov reporting on sports champion (domestic affairs IO). Voins DV distributing surrender leaflets via drone near Bohatyr (direct psychological/IO). Colonelcassad sharing animated map of RU strikes (IO promoting scale/targets).
  • Ukrainian IO: Highlighting Marhanets mass casualty bus attack as war crime, providing details on casualties/severity (updated), noting frequency of such FPV attacks on civilians, declaring days of mourning. Publicizing Kherson energy facility destruction and other civilian impacts/casualties (updated Zaporizhzhia count, Kharkiv fatality, WIA in other regions, updated Dnipropetrovsk casualties/damage, Vilkul's report on Nikopolskyi/Kryvyi Rih damage/casualties). Reporting updated drone interception statistics (67 downed strike UAVs, 47 imitators neutralized, 4 Shaheds downed over Dnipropetrovsk). Providing visual confirmation of downed RU drones. Reporting repelled attacks & claimed RU losses (GSh, OTU Kharkiv, UA units, Vilkul's summary). Showcasing UA drone effectiveness (FPV strikes, coordinating ops, destroying RU armor/infantry, destroying expensive RU drones, destroying RU radar). Promoting UA stance/rejection of compromising peace terms (Crimea, territory transfer before full ceasefire), reiterating readiness for talks conditioned on RU ceasefire. Highlighting BILD/WP assessment of US proposal as unilateral/pro-Russian. Reporting capture of RU POWs, including African mercenary from Senegal (Butusov Plus). Publicizing POW/MIA family support efforts. Publicizing successful fundraiser closure. Publicizing detention/sentencing of alleged RU informant. Claiming elimination of high-ranking RU officers. Countering RU narratives about London talks/European stance, emphasizing European requirement for territorial integrity. Publicizing change of command. Highlighting RU morale issues. Highlighting air threats. Highlighting UA GUR unit successes on Zaporizhzhia direction. Reporting/documenting alleged UA drone attacks on Tatarstan drone factory (Alabuga), confirming hits (at least 5) and providing details. Reporting on IDP support efforts, civilian resilience. Publicizing financial/economic diplomatic efforts (Shmyhal in Washington, mineral resources agreement). Promoting psychological support for troops/families. Exposing internal RU official's false SVO claim. Highlighting Poland's stance. Using DeepState map/analysis to show RU advances in Toretsk direction. Promoting Ukrainian patriotism. Highlighting internal security/anti-corruption efforts (SBU/Police detaining KMDA official). Celebrating Ukrainian military psychologists. Highlighting medical support capabilities of the 22nd Mechanized Brigade. UA source (Operativnyi ZSU) cites NASA imagery showing fires at 51 GRAU depots. UA source (Butusov Plus) reports capture and medical treatment of a Russian mercenary. UA source (RBK-Ukraina) reports on analyst assessment of RU goal vs feasibility by May 9 and analyst assessment of Trump's logic, reports car explosion in Kyiv, language ombudsman rejecting US envoy's statement. BBC Ukraine correspondent assessment of Trump's plan (Operativnyi ZSU). Oleksandr Vilkul's briefing summary covers UA perspective. 128th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade recruiting call (CyberBoroshno). GSh ZSU sharing photos of 32nd Artillery Brigade, highlighting their role/capabilities. Zaporizhzhia OVA sharing video of explosives experts on mine clearance efforts, reporting difficult but controlled situation. Tsaplienko sharing video of border guards destroying RU radar (promoting UA capabilities). Updates from Lysak (Dnipropetrovsk OVA) on Marhanets casualties (confirming higher number).

VIII. Other Relevant Information

  • Russian Administrative Activity: Bryansk Oblast Governor Alexander Bogomaz held a meeting in the Presidential Reception Office, highlighting official focus on regional issues likely related to the conflict (observed via image analysis, presented as IO by RU source).
  • Russian Internal Issues: Wildfire emergency declared in Zabaykalsky Krai, impacting a vast area (reported by ASTRA, framing as domestic issue). Donetsk resident who signed contract with RU military sentenced for murder the day before deployment (ASTRA).

IX. Potential Indicators

  • Increased Russian assault activity on Zaporizhzhia and Toretsk axes, coupled with troop transfers (UA Intel assessment), suggests potential intensification of operations in the south.
  • Russian claims of advancing near Toretsk axis (Sukha Balka, Tarasivka, Nelepivka, Dachne) and Novopavlivsk axis (Bohatyr, Otradne), if confirmed, indicate local tactical gains and potential shifts in the frontline configuration.
  • DeepState analysis on RU advances southwest of Toretsk highlights finding a weak point and potential flanking maneuver around Shcherbynivka, suggesting a developing threat axis.
  • Russian stated objective to reach Dnipropetrovsk border by May 9 (OSUV "Khortytsia" report) indicates continued ambitious operational planning, though assessed as unlikely by UA analyst.
  • Reported US peace proposal ideas and Trump's public statements advocating for significant concessions from Ukraine (Crimea, territorial freeze) indicate potential international pressure points and influence on future negotiation dynamics, regardless of immediate military outcomes.
  • Continued Russian targeting of energy and industrial infrastructure across multiple oblasts reflects a sustained strategic effort to degrade Ukraine's support capacity.
  • Ongoing high intensity combat, particularly on the Pokrovsk axis (53 assaults Apr 22, 31 by 16:00 UTC Apr 23), indicates sustained Russian operational effort in that sector.
  • Russian reports on creating BARS-39 in Kaliningrad Oblast suggest efforts to enhance regional territorial defense capabilities.
  • Reports of logistical challenges and needs within the Russian military (scooters replacing armor, fundraising appeals, issues with injured soldiers) could indicate strains on their capacity for sustained operations, though offset by claimed increases in domestic production (EW, robots, lasers, FPVs).
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