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Historical Intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing

Report Time
2025-04-23 15:34:45Z
2 months ago
Previous (2025-04-23 15:04:38Z)

Military Situation Update

As of Wed Apr 23 15:33:02 2025

I. Strategic & Air Warfare

  • Major Russian UAV/Missile Attack Aftermath (Night/Morning Apr 22-23): Russia launched 134 aerial objects, including 67 strike UAVs (Shahed/Geran types) and 47 "imitator drones". Ukrainian Air Force confirmed interception of 67 strike UAVs across multiple regions via integrated air defense (aviation, SAMs, EW, mobile fire groups). 47 imitator drones reportedly failed to reach targets. Previous reports indicated 0/3 missiles intercepted (Onyx, Kh-31P). RU sources claim decreased Ukrainian air defense effectiveness against Geran drones, alleging newer generations and tactical changes including potential use of "Geran-3" kamikaze drones equipped with turbojet engines for higher speed/range (Requires verification). RU sources provided video allegedly showing strikes in Odesa, Poltava, Kharkiv.
    • Civilian Impacts: Attacks confirmed to have impacted Kharkiv, Poltava, Donetsk, Odesa, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Resulted in a MASS CASUALTY EVENT in Marhanets (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast) where an FPV drone struck a civilian bus, confirmed 9 civilians killed and 49 wounded, with 31 hospitalized (4 in serious condition). Criminal investigation initiated (Art. 438 War Crimes). Strikes also impacted Poltava (6 wounded, damage to civilian infrastructure), Odesa (2 wounded, large fires including alleged strike on "Unitech" enterprise), Dnipropetrovsk (2 wounded in Raivska hromada, fire at agricultural enterprise; FPV attacks in Nikopolskyi raion), and Kyiv Oblast (falling UAV debris caused fire destroying hotel-restaurant complex buildings, damage to 7 private houses, farm building, warehouse; no casualties). One civilian fatality confirmed in Kharkiv city following yesterday's shelling; previous shelling in Kupyansk resulted in 4 wounded, 55 houses damaged. A previous attack update for Zaporizhzhia Oblast reported the total number of injured has risen to 42, with 14 hospitalized (including critical cases, pregnant woman, 5 children).
    • Kherson City/Oblast: CRITICAL ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE DESTROYED, a key facility supplying Kherson city, by sustained Russian artillery and drone attacks, potentially leading to power outages.
    • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Updates (Latest): Marhanets total WIA increased to 51 (4 serious). Continued RU shelling/FPV attacks in Nikopolskyi raion (Marhanetska, Pokrovska hromadas) damaged 3 houses, farm building, resulted in new unspecified casualties. 1 WIA (72yo woman) in Synelnykivskyi raion from shelling. KAB/UAV attacks on Novopavlivska/Mezhivska hromadas damaged 12 houses, enterprise, power line, caused fire. Drone damaged solar panels in Zelenodolska hromada (Kryvyi Rih), no casualties.
  • Ongoing Air Threats: Tactical aviation activity noted on northern-eastern, eastern, and southern directions with potential air strikes. KAB/KAR threats declared towards Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts. Reconnaissance UAVs reported over northern Chernihiv and western Sumy Oblasts, as well as east of Zaporizhzhia. Ballistic missile threat from the east was declared for Kyiv before being cleared; a repeat threat was later declared for Sumy. New KAB threats declared for Sumy, Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia Oblasts in the past hour. Reconnaissance UAV threat in southern Sumy Oblast, AD engaged.
  • Ukrainian Strikes vs. Russian Territory: Alleged UA drone attacks over the past day reportedly destroyed 56 houses in Bryansk Oblast (Requires verification). An FPV drone attack in Belgorod Oblast reportedly injured 1 civilian in Novaya Tavolzhanka. Drone activity and explosions reported over Yelabuga, Tatarstan, near a military drone factory. RU MoD claimed 1 UA UAV destroyed over Tatarstan, while RU sources claimed 4 shot down near the "Alabuga" SEZ plant. Ukrainian sources confirm hits on the 'Alabuga' special economic zone in Tatarstan, targeting the drone production facility, reporting six aircraft with 250kg warheads used, one downed and at least five hitting targets approximately 1700km from Ukraine, causing secondary explosions. RU source claims UA drone fell on schoolyard in Makiivka (occupied Donetsk), did not detonate.
  • Moscow City Incident: Reports of fire and explosions near Moscow City, specifically "AfiMall City" and the "Mercury" tower underground parking. Conflicting reports on the cause, initially fire in construction materials/pressure vessels, then attributed to a car explosion. No casualties reported in the "AfiMall" fire area.
  • Kirzhach Arsenal Fire Aftermath (Vladimir Oblast, Russia): Detonations gradually ceasing, but extensive forest fires persist. State of Emergency remains, with 4 civilians injured and 533 evacuated. UA source cites NASA satellite imagery showing fires at 51 GRAU depots, potentially related.
  • Russian Claims of UA Border Attacks: RU sources claim a UA FPV drone attack injured 1 civilian in a minibus in Podlesnye Novoselki, Sevsky district, Bryansk Oblast. RU MoD claims repelling an attempt by UA forces to invade Kursk region on April 23, stating the "Sever Group of Forces" hit UA units near Gornal and Oleshnya and inflicted over 170 casualties, destroying a Bradley IFV, other armor, artillery, and drone control points. RU MoD also claims massive cumulative UA losses in the Kursk direction since the start of hostilities (>75,710 personnel, hundreds/thousands of equipment units). RU claims destruction of UA military equipment, including a BTR, near Oleshnya, Kursk. RU source claims UA shelling of Lysychansk (LPR), injuring 4 civilians (2 women, 2 9yo twin girls - serious).

II. Naval Activity

  • Black Sea: Two Russian Kalibr missile carriers active, elevating the missile threat (Potential total salvo: 12 missiles). An Italian Air Force (NATO) Gulfstream G550 AEW aircraft is conducting surveillance flights over the western Black Sea, monitoring air and maritime activity.
  • Sea of Azov: No enemy vessels detected.
  • Mediterranean Sea: Three Russian warships present, including two Kalibr carriers (up to 12 missiles).
  • Kerch Strait: Transit continues; Russia persists in disabling AIS.
  • Sevastopol Incident (Latest - RU IO): A Russian writer claimed an announcement for his book presentation at a Russian Navy Club-Museum in Sevastopol on May 2nd is a fake created by "enemy military intelligence" to cause a "large-scale provocation" (potentially a gathering targeted by strike).

III. Frontline Operations

  • Overall Assessment: Russian forces maintain offensive pressure, particularly on the Pokrovsk axis, which continues to experience the highest intensity. Increased Russian activity is noted on the Zaporizhzhia and Toretsk axes. Ukrainian intelligence assesses Russian forces are regrouping and transferring troops/equipment from Crimea and Russia to the southern front (Zaporizhzhia, Kherson areas) for expected intensification. Heavy use of UAVs (including incendiary), KABs, and artillery continues. Ukrainian forces are actively defending, using drones for reconnaissance and strikes, and conducting tactical counter-attacks. 144 combat clashes were recorded on April 22; 83 combat clashes reported as of 16:00 UTC on April 23. Tactical Group "Vuhledar" reports a significant decrease in RU assaults on the southern Donetsk front (Apr 16-22), attributing it to accumulation of personnel/equipment for a large offensive aimed at the Dnipropetrovsk/Donetsk border by May 9.
  • Russian Objectives: OSUV "Khortytsia" reports Russia plans to reach the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by May 9, continuing attacks on the Pokrovsk axis in multiple locations. Tactical Group "Vuhledar" reinforces this objective for the southern Donetsk front. Ukrainian analyst Mykhailo Samus assesses this RU goal is unlikely to be achieved by May 9.
  • Kursk/Sumy Border Zone: Ukrainian operations continue in Kursk Oblast, repelling 22 RU assaults on Apr 22, and 8 assaults as of 16:00 UTC on Apr 23, with 3 ongoing clashes. 9 RU POWs were captured (Apr 20). Intensive fighting near Hornal is reported, with RU forces attempting to push UA forces out. Clearing operations reportedly nearing completion in Oleshnya. RU sources claim expanding their zone of control and advancing up to 1.5km near the demarcation line. Russian Spetsnaz units are confirmed operating near Demidovka. RU MoD claims hitting UA formations near several Sumy Oblast settlements. RU MoD reports repelling UA attempts to invade Kursk region on April 23, claiming destruction of UA units and equipment. RU claims of clearing Hornal monastery and Hornal being the last UA-held settlement in Kursk Oblast. BARS-KURSK volunteer brigade active. UA sources claim destroying RU BTR near Oleshnya with FPV drones. Mine clearing operations continue in the Kursk border area. RU source (Poddubny) claims RU "North" group near Hornal is finishing off UA groups, achieved flanking maneuver, compressed remaining UA forces to <20 sq km. RU source (Basurin) claims cumulative UA losses in Kursk approaching 76k.
  • Kharkiv Direction: 4 Russian attacks were repelled near Vovchansk and Vovchanski Khutory as of 16:00 UTC (Apr 23). The situation is complex but controlled. Russian forces conducted 3 air strikes (5 KABs), used 86 kamikaze drones, and 751 shelling incidents (Apr 22). RU MoD claims hitting UA manpower/equipment near Vovchansk, Liptsy, and Malye Prokhody. UA 3rd Assault Brigade drones active targeting RU infantry. RU source (Dnevnik Desantnika) claims RU assault groups are actively pushing into UA defense near Vovchansk and Lyptsi, supported by FABs and long-range artillery, claiming strikes on UA groups and equipment.
  • Kupyansk Axis: Repelled 3 Russian attacks near Zahryzove, Nova Kruhlyakivka (Apr 22). Repelled 1 attack near Zahryzove as of 16:00 UTC (Apr 23). RU MoD claims "Zapad" Group of Forces occupied more advantageous lines/positions and hit UA formations in several Kharkiv Oblast settlements and Ryggorodka (Luhansk).
  • Lyman Axis: Repelled 14 Russian attacks (Apr 22). Repelled 8 attacks near Nove, Hrekivka, Ridkodub as of 16:00 UTC (Apr 23).
  • Siversk Axis: Repelled 3 Russian attempts near Hryhorivka, Verkhnokamyanske (Apr 22). Repelled 1 assault near Bilohorivka as of 16:00 UTC (Apr 23). RU sources claim advances near Hryhorivka and towards Siverskyi Donets River, capturing a key position.
  • Kramatorsk Axis (Chasiv Yar): Repelled 6 Russian attacks near Stupochky, Bila Hora, towards Maiske (Apr 22). No active Russian offensive actions reported as of 16:00 UTC (Apr 23). RU sources claim fighting within Chasiv Yar. RU claimed strikes targeted ammo depots near Kramatorsk causing secondary detonations, and strikes in Sloviansk targeting alleged UA reserves (Apr 22-23).
  • Toretsk Axis: 13 Russian attacks were repelled near Dachne, Druzhba, Toretsk, towards Shcherbynivka (Apr 22). As of 16:00 UTC (Apr 23), 16 Russian attacks reported near Dachne, Krymske, Toretsk, Leonidivka, with 5 ongoing. Russian forces confirmed control of Sukha Balka. Russian sources claim successful advances near Tarasivka, towards Nelepivka, entering Dachne. Claimed advance up to 800m south of Petrivka. Russian sources confirm liberation of Tarasivka. RU sources report RU 150th MSD advancing towards Romanovka and Staraya Nikolaevka, consolidating positions NE of Petrovskoye. RU 20th MSD reportedly advancing towards Staraya Nikolaevka from the west. DeepState reports enemy continues to develop success southwest of Toretsk, occupying Panteleymonivka, Valentynivka, almost all of Sukha Balka, and assaulting Romanivka. DeepState notes this creates an unpleasant situation where RU found a weak point, allowing flanking maneuver around Shcherbynivka. Prediction of RU push to Oleksandro-Kalynove and Katerynivka for logistics control of Toretsk. Ukrainian forces captured an African mercenary from Senegal near Toretsk. Donetsk Oblast police battalion soldiers active, eliminating RU soldiers in close combat near Toretsk. RU source (RVvoenkor citing DeepState) reiterates RU advances southwest of Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk area), claiming capture of Panteleymonivka, Valentynivka, Sukha Balka, and movement towards Romanivka, noting UA assessment of a weak point allowing flanking.
  • Pokrovsk Axis (Highest Intensity): 53 Russian assaults were repelled (Apr 22). As of 16:00 UTC (Apr 23), 31 Russian attempts reported near Kalynove, Zelene Pole, Novotoretske, Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Vidrodzhennya, Zvirove, Uspenivka, Nadiyivka, Kotlyarivka, Andriyivka, with 27 repelled and 4 ongoing clashes. Russian sources claim resumed envelopment efforts and advances despite fierce Ukrainian resistance near Selydove. RU MoD claims "Tsentr" Group of Forces improved position along the forward edge. RU claims T-72 tank supported assault, destroying UA stronghold firing positions despite UA FPV attacks, alleging EW effectiveness against UA FPV drones. Russia continues attacks on multiple locations aiming for the Dnipropetrovsk border by May 9.
  • Novopavlivsk Axis (South Donetsk / Vremivka): 17 Russian attacks were repelled (Apr 22). As of 16:00 UTC (Apr 23), 8 Russian attacks reported near Kostiantynopil, Rozlyv, Rivnopil, Novodarivka, with 4 ongoing clashes. Tactical Group "Vuhledar" reports decreased RU assaults but force accumulation for a large offensive aiming for the Dnipropetrovsk/Donetsk border by May 9. RU Su-34 strike claimed on UA PVD in Bohatyr. RU UAV incendiary strikes claimed (Shakhtarsk Dir). RU sources claim advances towards Bohatyr/Otradne, disrupting UA rotation, destroying UA artillery, destroying UA M113 APC and personnel near Bohatyr. RU source ('Dnevnik Desantnika') reports increased UA drone activity hindering RU advances near Velyka Novosilka direction, positional battles near Vilne Pole. Russian sapper operations reported in the settlement of Yegorivka (Novopavlivsk axis area). RU source (Colonelcassad citing Voin DV) provides detailed claims of advances on South Donetsk direction (Bogatyr, Otradnoe, Volnoe Pole), including territorial gains and claimed significant UA personnel (>45) and equipment (M113, 3 AFVs) losses from counterattacks.
  • Zaporizhzhia Axis (Orikhiv / Polohy): 5 Russian attacks were repelled (Apr 22). As of 16:00 UTC (Apr 23), 3 Russian attempts reported near Stepove, Shcherbaky, Lobkove, with 1 ongoing clash. Increased Russian assault activity is reported, with positional fighting and Ukrainian counterattacks. Ukrainian intelligence assesses troop transfers for expected intensification. High activity of Russian FPV drones is reported on the Vasylivka - Tokmak highway and nearby settlements. RU MoD claims "Dniepr" Group of Forces hit UA formations. RU claims targeting UA comms/explosives facility. Ukrainian GUR units claim destroying over 100 pieces of Russian equipment and eliminating over 150 occupiers on the Zaporizhzhia direction over the past week. RU source (Mash) claims a UA drone attacked a civilian official's car in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, no casualties.
  • Huliaipole Axis: No active Russian offensive actions were reported (Apr 22). No active Russian offensive actions reported as of 16:00 UTC (Apr 23). Ukrainian intelligence assesses troop transfers for expected intensification. Uncontrolled aircraft rockets reportedly targeted the area.
  • Kherson Axis (Prydniprovskyi): No active Russian offensive actions were reported (Apr 22, 23). Key energy infrastructure was destroyed. Russian intelligence assesses troop transfers for expected intensification.
  • Other Fronts: No active Russian offensive actions reported on Kramatorsk and Prydniprovskyi directions as of 16:00 UTC (Apr 23).

IV. Political & Diplomatic Context

  • London Peace Talks (Apr 23 - POSTPONED/DOWNGRADED): The planned ministerial meeting of UK, US, FR, DE, UA Foreign Ministers will not occur at the ministerial level. Discussions are proceeding between officials and experts behind closed doors. The postponement is widely attributed to Ukraine's rejection of reported US proposals involving territorial concessions, specifically regarding recognition of Russian control over Crimea and preference to first discuss a full ceasefire. US Special Envoy Keith Kellogg is leading the US delegation. Ukrainian FM Andriy Sybiha is expected for a bilateral meeting with UK FM David Lammy. Low expectations for a breakthrough are reported. UK FM Lammy stated the meeting with the Ukrainian delegation was "valuable" and they are working at a fast pace to end the war and achieve a just peace.
  • US Stance: US Vice President JD Vance reportedly stated that the US proposal involves freezing the borders near current lines and requiring some territorial exchanges. Vance reportedly stated the US might withdraw from mediation if its "clear and fair proposal" is rejected by both sides. The US does not support Russian demilitarization demands and does not object to European forces providing future security guarantees for Ukraine (Reuters). US SecState Marco Rubio (incorrect title used by some sources) reportedly stated the US better understands Russia's position after talks and that Ukraine could face harsher terms if US-led talks fail, also commenting on NATO. UA/RU sources quote US Senator Marco Rubio (incorrectly titled "Secretary of State") stating there is "no military end" to the war, that Russia won't take all Ukraine, and Ukraine won't return to 2014 borders, and claims better understanding of RU position after talks. RU source (Basurin) frames Rubio's statements as evidence UA/EU failed to force RU to negotiate on Western terms, leading to harsher conditions.
  • Ukrainian Stance (Official): Ukraine's First Vice Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko confirmed at the London meeting that Ukraine is ready to negotiate but not surrender. She stated that a full ceasefire (land, air, sea) is a necessary first step, and a frozen conflict/Crimea recognition are rejected. Ukraine demands binding security guarantees strong enough to deter future aggression if NATO membership is not immediate. Head of President's Office Andriy Yermak called the meeting with UK, FR, DE national security advisors "valuable", stating Ukraine remains committed to President Trump's peace efforts (Note: Trump is not currently President), but Russia refuses unconditional ceasefire and manipulates talks. Yermak emphasized international unity gives Russia no chance and agreed on further regular consultations for "just peace".
  • European Stance: UK and French officials are reportedly open to a scenario involving de facto recognition of the current line of control in exchange for robust security guarantees (WSJ/Reuters), preferring a "Korean War-style" truce. The EU reportedly opposes lifting sanctions on Russia before negotiations conclude and opposes recognizing Crimea as Russian. Estonian PM Kallas rejects Crimea recognition and questions US approach. Office of French President Macron stated Europe will demand respect for Ukraine's territorial integrity in any peace agreement, contrasting with Vance's suggestions. Estonia is planning to build a new military base near the Russian border in Narva to house over 200 Estonian and allied troops.
  • Russian Stance on Negotiations: Russian sources dismiss Western reports of readiness to freeze the conflict and emphasize controlling "new regions." They frame the London talks downgrade as Ukrainian inflexibility and failure. The Kremlin reiterates readiness for talks if Ukraine lifts its legal ban on negotiating with Putin. Peskov stated discussions on settlement are confidential and officially denied a Financial Times report claiming Putin offered a frontline freeze. Russia remains against deploying peacekeepers in Ukraine. Russian MFA (Lavrov) stated the next round of Russian-American negotiations will take place soon and commented on a planned delegation for Pope Francis's funeral. Valentina Matviyenko, Chairwoman of the Federation Council, stated Russia will never participate in negotiations discussing placement of European troops on Ukraine's territory. Russian political analyst Vladimir Kornilov suggests US is "testing the waters" with different peace plan versions. RU source (Rybar) reports Russia put 21 British parliamentarians on a "stop-list" in retaliation for anti-Russian actions and support for Ukraine.
  • International Relations: Russia expressed strong protest to Japan over the intention to use income from frozen Russian assets for credit to Ukraine, calling it complicity in Ukrainian crimes and threatening response. Sergey Naryshkin, Head of Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service, called potential EU official bans from 9 May events in Russia "disgusting." Polish FM Sikorski suggests China could force Putin to end the war and that Ukraine has no reason to capitulate. Ukrainian PM Shmyhal and government team in Washington for financial meetings (World Bank, IMF), plan to finalize agreement with US on access to Ukrainian mineral resources. Russia put 21 British parliamentarians on a "stop-list", plans to expand it. US reportedly considers reducing tariffs for China to lower tension (WSJ). US Defense Sec Hagset (incorrect title used by some sources) stated the US can no longer be the guarantor of European security. Rybar analysis reports on Turkish/Azerbaijani media expansion in Central Asia/Russia as info warfare, and Russian attempts to build relations with Somaliland, showing interest in Berbera port amidst foreign military presence there. Russia's Federal Bailiff Service has initiated future proceedings (dated April 17, 2025) to seize assets of former official Anatoly Chubais, who left Russia after the invasion began. RU source (TASS) reports US Senator Marco Rubio stated US wants to prevent potential armed conflict with China. UA PM Shmyhal and government team arrived in Washington for Spring Meetings, plan to finalize agreement with US on access to Ukrainian mineral resources.
  • Russian Internal: The arrest of a Russian House employee and others in Osh, Kyrgyzstan for alleged mercenary recruitment for Russian forces is confirmed. The FSB claimed detention/expulsion of a former Moldovan security service member linked to Ukrainian GUR, claiming he confirmed intelligence/subversion goals, discussed undermining ammunition depots in Transnistria with Budanov, and helped Budanov contact Moldovan president and security service head. Stand-up comics Vyacheslav Komissarenko and Dmitry Romanov were stripped of Russian citizenship and banned entry for anti-war stance/support for Ukraine. Mishustin ordered federal property tax benefits for SVO veterans and their families. Lavrov stated measures to reduce labor migrants are likely not in Russia's interest due to labor shortages. Protests against municipal reform by servicemen from Krasnoyarsk Krai are reported. A Krasnoyarsk official (Deputy Dmitry Vlasov) was exposed for falsely claiming SVO participation for a veteran management program and removed from his leadership role. Activist Alexander Zhelutukhin reported alleged torture by security forces during detention in Voronezh. ASTRA reports on investigation into alleged torture. Igor Strelkov comments on the law against discrediting the army potentially targeting "angry patriots". Russian source reports a traffic accident involving an alleged Rosgvardia officer in Tambov Oblast. New Russian state initiatives are promoting sports and rehabilitation for SVO veterans ("Healthy Fatherland" program). RU source (ASTRA) reports activist Alexander Zhelutukhin claims torture during detention in Voronezh. RU source (Alex Parker) comments on the asset seizure proceedings against Anatoly Chubais. RU source (Fighterbomber) discusses potential internal accountability issues in the Russian military related to specific events/commanders.

V. Logistics, Capabilities & Losses

  • Ukrainian:
    • Civilian Losses/Damage: 9 KIA, 51 WIA (31 hospitalized, 4 serious) (Marhanets bus attack, increased WIA). 6 WIA (Poltava). 1 KIA (Kharkiv city), 4 WIA (Kupyansk), 2 WIA (Raivska hromada), 2 WIA (Odesa). 42 WIA total from previous Zaporizhzhia attack (14 hospitalized, including critical cases, pregnant woman, 5 children). Critical energy facility destroyed (Kherson). Extensive damage to civilian infrastructure across multiple oblasts, including additional damage reported today in Nikopolskyi and Synelnykivskyi raions and solar panels in Kryvyi Rih. RU claims 4 WIA (2 girls in serious condition) in Lysychansk, LPR from UA strike.
    • Military Losses (RU Claims): Approx. 1210 personnel KIA/WIA (GSh, Apr 22). RU MoD claims total losses over past day exceed 1265 personnel, numerous equipment units including tanks, APCs, vehicles, artillery, MLRS, radars, EW stations, and ammunition depots. RU MoD claims over 170 personnel and a Bradley IFV were lost in the Kursk direction in the past 24 hours. Claims massive cumulative losses in Kursk direction (>75,710 personnel). RU claims destruction of UA dugout/manpower, "Baba Yaga" drone, M777 howitzer, UA PVD (Bohatyr), M113 APC (Bohatyr), 3 BTRs ("Skala" unit), 2 "MaxPro" units ("Skala" unit), M-113 BTR, 2 vehicles near Oleshnya/Hornal, UA stronghold firing positions (Pokrovsk). RU claims destroying 9 JDAM, 3 HIMARS, 4 Vampire MLRS rockets, 166 UAVs on Apr 23 (RU MoD). RU source (Basurin) claims cumulative UA losses in Kursk direction approaching 76k, claims 170+ KIA/WIA in Kursk/Sumy areas with equipment losses (Bradley, armor, arty, mortar, BREM, 11 drone control points, 2 ammo depots), and over 850 losses on Donbas directions in past day with up to 10 ammo depots destroyed. RU source (Colonelcassad citing Voin DV) claims over 45 UA personnel and equipment (M113, 3 AFVs - Kozak, MaxPro) losses from repelled counterattacks on South Donetsk axis.
    • Losses (Officer - UA Claim): Claimed elimination of several named RU officers, including Major Rasul Zhantuyev (Tu-22M3 commander) and Lt Col Alexander Bezin (FSB reserve, 155th Naval Inf Bde Cdr).
    • Losses (Confirmed/Observed): Ongoing disruption at Kirzhach arsenal. Visual confirmation of multiple downed/neutralized RU drones (Geran/Shahed types). RU source confirms 4 UA drones shot down over Tatarstan near the Yelabuga drone factory, with one UAV destroyed confirmed by RU MoD. Missile elimination near Odesa reported. Video shows large cemetery section with alleged SVO KIA graves (RU sources). UA video shows FPV drone destroying RU BTR near Oleshnya, Kursk Oblast, and second drone confirming. UA video shows police battalion in close combat near Toretsk, eliminating RU soldiers. UA video shows 61st Mech Bde drone footage of RU BMP destroyed by mines. UA 47th Mech Bde drone strikes vs Akhmat assets/vehicles near Avdiivka. RU video claims destruction of hidden fuel depot, "Gvozdika" SPG with drones. Captured African mercenary near Toretsk. RU claims UA 95th Brigade personnel abandoned positions near Oleshnya. UA source (Basurin) reports RU liberation of Tarasivka confirmed by RU MoD. UA source (Mash) claims a UA drone attacked a civilian official's car in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, no casualties. RU source (Colonelcassad) claims Kh-39 missile destroyed UA drone control point. UA source (Оперативний ЗСУ) cites NASA imagery showing fires at 51 GRAU depots. UA source (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС) confirms capture of African mercenary (Senegalese) near Toretsk by 49th Assault Battalion.
    • Capabilities: Active AD & EW (Confirmed 67 strike UAVs intercepted, 47 imitators neutralized). Visual confirmation of downed drones. Successful missile elimination reported. Highly active drone operations for reconnaissance, strikes (FPV, coordinating ground assaults), target confirmation. 63rd Brigade anti-aircraft gunners destroyed expensive "Merlin-VR" ($300k) and "Supercam" drones using cheap drones. Psychological support hotline for POW/MIA families established. Alleged RU informant detained in Cherkasy Oblast. Railway worker sentenced to 15 years for state treason (passing intel on UA military rail movements/fortifications to RU intel Telegram bot). Formation of new 8th Air Assault Corps reported. UA GUR units claim significant equipment and personnel losses inflicted on Russian forces on the Zaporizhzhia direction over the past week. Ukrainian sources claim successful attacks on the Alabuga drone production facility in Tatarstan, using aircraft with 250kg warheads and achieving at least 5 hits. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports delivery of substantial aid including vehicles, 100 drones (day camera), EW systems, drone detectors, and other equipment to units on the Zaporizhzhia front. UA AF MiG-29 pilot "Sava" claimed recent successful strike on RU equipment concentration (South). Coordination HQ for POW/MIA active, meeting families, discussing efforts despite lack of RU official information/ICRC access. UA Security Service (SBU) and National Police active in internal security, detaining KMDA official for bribery. UA 66th Brigade operating on Lyman axis. Mine clearing ongoing in Kursk border area. Civilian resilience efforts highlighted (IDP sewing business in Zaporizhzhia). UA units (117th Brigade "Zvirobiy", 4th MB "Ci4") use FPV drones against RU infantry, vehicles (BMPs, motorcycles). Fundraising appeals highlight severe impact of RU FPV drones on MEDEVAC and ammunition resupply, causing casualties, and the need for EW systems and Mavic drones (appeal for 24th Aidar Battalion EW and 114th TDF Bde Mavic 3s closed successfully). WarGonzo reports Ukraine imported 127.8k civilian UAVs ($371.3M) in Q1 2025, up 39% by value from Q1 2024, China largest supplier. RU sources claim UA 95th Brigade personnel abandoned positions near Oleshnya. Medical support capabilities highlighted by reporting from 22nd Mechanized Brigade. UA source reports police investigating car explosion in Kyiv.
    • Needs/Gaps: Continued need for EW and drones highlighted in fundraising appeals. Need for increased exchanges of POWs and access for international organizations emphasized by Coordination HQ.
    • Personnel: 9 RU POWs were captured (Kursk, Apr 20). Meetings held with families of UA POWs/MIAs from 103/104 TDF Bdes, 92nd Assault Brigade, "Burevii" Brigade, Maritime Guard, and 169th Training Center ("Desna"). Change of Command at 30th Mech Bde. Alleged forced mobilization attempt in Lutsk reported. Capture of an African mercenary from Senegal near Toretsk by 49th Assault Battalion.
  • Russian:
    • Losses (UA Claims): Approx. 1210 personnel KIA/WIA (GSh, Apr 22). 96 personnel (Kharkiv Dir, Apr 22). Significant equipment losses claimed. UA GUR units claim eliminating over 150 occupiers and destroying over 100 pieces of equipment on the Zaporizhzhia direction over the past week. RU BTR destroyed by UA FPV near Oleshnya, Kursk. RU BMP destroyed by mines (UA video). RU soldiers eliminated in close combat near Toretsk (UA video). Several RU infantry, motorcyclist, 2 BMPs destroyed by UA drones on Pokrovsk axis (UA source citing 117th Brigade). Several RU infantry killed by UA FPVs (4th MB "Ci4"). RU claims 45+ UA personnel, M113, 3 BTRs, 2 "MaxPro" destroyed on Novopavlivsk axis (Voin DV). RU claims over 170 UA losses, Bradley IFV, other equipment in Kursk border area (RU MoD, Apr 23). RU claims massive cumulative losses in Kursk direction (>75k personnel). UA source (Basurin) reports cumulative UA losses in Kursk direction approaching 76k, claims 170+ KIA/WIA in Kursk/Sumy areas with equipment losses (Bradley, armor, arty, mortar, BREM, 11 drone control points, 2 ammo depots), and over 850 losses on Donbas directions in past day with up to 10 ammo depots destroyed. RU source (Colonelcassad citing Voin DV) claims over 45 UA personnel and equipment (M113, 3 AFVs - Kozak, MaxPro) losses from repelled counterattacks on South Donetsk axis.
    • Losses (Officer - UA Claim): Claimed elimination of several high-ranking officers, including Major Rasul Zhantuyev (Tu-22M3 commander) and Lt Col Alexander Bezin (FSB reserve, 155th Naval Inf Bde Cdr), Major Mikhail Kondratov, Capt Vladimir Lebedev (DNR), Sr Lt Konstantin Mishcheryukov, Sr Lt Alexander Semyonov. RU source confirmed posthumous award for Jr Sgt Dedkov Dmitry Vyacheslavovich, killed on Bakhmut axis Oct 6, 2024. RU source confirms death of seaman Dmitry Gavrilkin (20 y.o.) during the conflict.
    • Losses (Confirmed/Observed): Ongoing significant disruption at Kirzhach arsenal. Downed "Baba Yaga" drone claimed (Kursk). Visual confirmation of multiple downed/neutralized RU drones (Geran/Shahed types). RU source confirms 4 UA drones shot down over Tatarstan near the Yelabuga drone factory, with one confirmed destroyed by RU MoD; UA source claims at least 5 hits. Missile elimination near Odesa reported. Video shows large cemetery section with alleged SVO KIA graves. RU BTR destroyed by UA FPV near Oleshnya, Kursk. Moscow City incident involves fire/explosion near buildings/on parking lot. RU claims destroying hidden fuel depot, "Gvozdika" SPG with drones. Captured African mercenary near Toretsk. RU claims UA 95th Brigade personnel abandoned positions near Oleshnya. UA source (Оперативний ЗСУ) cites NASA imagery showing fires at 51 GRAU depots.
    • Capabilities: Sustained heavy UAV/KAB/missile/artillery strikes. Active tactical aviation. Increased Black Sea Kalibr capacity. AD active over RU (claimed interceptions over 7 regions). Claims targeting UA production/ammo/comms/arty/PVDs/howitzer/armor/strongholds. Confirmed capture of Sukha Balka, claimed liberation of Tarasivka, claimed advances near Nelepivka, Dachne, Petrovka, Panteleymonivka, Valentynivka, Bohatyr, Otradne. Claimed successful use of EW to counter UA FPV drones (Pokrovsk). Use of drones for coordinating ground assaults and strikes (Arkhangel Spetsnaza). Activities of BARS-KURSK volunteer brigade detailed. Use of incendiary UAVs (Shakhtarsk Dir). Detailed reconnaissance/planning before assaults. Use of drones to track vehicles to PVDs. Claimed use of motorcycles for rapid assaults (Novopavlivsk - Voin DV claim). Putin stated production of EW means increased by more than double last year, and ordered accelerating production of robot complexes, uncrewed boats, and combat lasers. Putin demanded active use of AI on the battlefield and stated all armies are studying Russian experience. Putin stated FPV drones are still not sufficient but production will be increased, calling them the "most serious factor for combat success," despite daily delivery of ~4000 FPV drones. RU MoD claims destroying 9 JDAM, 3 HIMARS, 4 Vampire MLRS rockets, 166 UAVs on Apr 23. RU MoD claims destroying UA PzH 2000, AN/TPQ-48 radar, Kvertus and Nota EW stations, M113s, counter-battery radar, EW station on various axes on Apr 23. RU MoD video shows T-80BV tank operations and Mi-28NM helicopter strike in Kursk border area. RU MoD video shows 810th Marine Brigade operations near Hornal. RU source claims use of motorcycles for rapid assaults in Novopavlivsk. RU Spetsnaz unit "Vega" active on Pokrovsk direction, destroying UA equipment/vehicles. Russian sapper units active, conducting demining operations in areas like Yegorivka. New state-backed programs promoting sports and rehabilitation for SVO veterans ("Healthy Fatherland"). RU source (Colonelcassad) claims Kh-39 missile destroyed UA drone control point. RU source (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА) shares video of drone strikes vs UA equipment/personnel.
    • Needs/Gaps: Fundraising appeals highlight the need for night vision devices, Mavic drones (various models), drone detectors, radios, and 5.45mm magazines for units on the Zaporizhzhia axis (specific appeal from 7th Guards Air Assault Division details needs). Putin stated FPV drones are still not sufficient but production will be increased. Lavrov stated measures to reduce labor migrants are likely not in Russia's interest due to labor shortages. Need for satellite communication highlighted by RU source. Need for high-quality personnel selection highlighted by RU source. RU source notes UA FPV superiority due to localized assembly. New fundraising appeal specifically for an EW system for a unit in the Kursk border area (for a unit commander who evacuated civilians). RU source (Alex Parker) shares a crowdfunding appeal for DJI Mavic 3T and 3Pro drones for the 60th Separate Motor Rifle Brigade's UAV operators (goal 4M RUB, 1M remaining as of 23.04.25).
    • Personnel/Morale Issues: Captured soldier testimony indicates poor preparedness/morale. Arrest of alleged mercenary recruiter in Kyrgyzstan. Reports of forced conscription/abuses. Mercenary complaint video highlights command incompetence leading to high losses. Video shows captured Russian soldier (Sergey Kholodkov) expressing emotion and discussing what he'd say to Putin. Russian source claims Ukrainian forces in Sukha Balka fired on their own soldiers trying to leave positions. Krasnoyarsk official exposed for falsely claiming SVO participation for a management program for veterans and removed from his leadership role. Activist Alexander Zhelutukhin reported alleged torture by security forces during detention in Voronezh. ASTRA reports on investigation into alleged torture. Igor Strelkov comments on the law against discrediting the army potentially targeting "angry patriots". Russian source reports a traffic accident involving an alleged Rosgvardia officer in Tambov Oblast. Confirmed death of 20-year-old seaman during the conflict. Captured African mercenary near Toretsk. RU source (Fighterbomber) discusses potential internal accountability issues ("Leonidich").
  • Gas Imports: Russia occupied second place after the US in total value of gas imports to the EU in February, despite the cessation of transit through Ukraine.
  • Russian Asset Seizure (Chubais): Russian Federal Bailiff Service initiated proceedings to seize assets of former official Anatoly Chubais (dated April 17, 2025), who left Russia after the invasion.

VI. Humanitarian & Ethical Dimensions

  • Civilian Impact (Ukraine): 9 KIA, 51 WIA (31 hospitalized, 4 serious) (Marhanets bus attack, increased WIA), confirmed RU FPV drone strike on civilian workers. 6 WIA (Poltava). 1 KIA (Kharkiv city), 4 WIA (Kupyansk), 2 WIA (Raivska hromada), 2 WIA (Odesa). 42 WIA total from previous Zaporizhzhia attack (14 hospitalized). 1 WIA (72yo woman) in Synelnykivskyi raion. Additional damage to civilian infrastructure in Nikopolskyi and Synelnykivskyi raions, and Kryvyi Rih. Widespread damage to civilian infrastructure, including destruction of the Kherson energy facility. Marhanets community declared days of mourning (Apr 23-25). Ruins of Bakhmut decorated with propaganda banners. IDP living conditions are being improved in Zaporizhzhia Oblast with international support; IDP from Polohy started sewing business in Zaporizhzhia. Bus with "Artek" children in accident in Sevastopol, 8 hospitalized. RU source (Mash) claims a UA drone attacked a civilian official's car in Zaporizhzhia, no casualties.
  • Civilian Impact (Russia/Occupied Areas): Claim 56 houses destroyed by UA drones in Bryansk Oblast. Claim 1 civilian WIA in Belgorod Oblast (Novaya Tavolzhanka) and 1 WIA in Bryansk Oblast (Podlesnye Novoselki) from alleged UA FPV drones. Civilian impact reported in Tatarstan near the Yelabuga drone factory. 4 civilians WIA, 533 evacuated due to Kirzhach arsenal fire/detonations. Claim UA drone fell on schoolyard in Makiivka, did not detonate. RU source reports damage and looting at a recreation base in Novaya Tavolzhanka, Belgorod Oblast, previously occupied by RU military personnel (Wagner, others), with owners filing police reports. Claim 4 WIA (2 9-year-old girls in serious condition) in Lysychansk, LPR from alleged UA strike. Mine contamination remains a significant issue in Kursk border areas, expected to last for years. UA source (Оперативний ЗСУ) shares photos/videos of damaged civilian buildings, likely related to the Kirzhach arsenal fire aftermath.
  • LOAC Violations/Concerns: Confirmed Russian attack causing mass civilian casualties in Marhanets (FPV drone on civilian bus). Persistent Russian attacks impacting civilian infrastructure and destroying the Kherson energy facility. Russian source claims Ukrainian forces fired on their own soldiers trying to leave positions near Sukha Balka. Russian claims of extensive Ukrainian attacks on civilian housing in Bryansk Oblast and civilian casualties in Belgorod, Bryansk, and Lysychansk. Russian claims UA drone fell on schoolyard (Makiivka). Russian claims alleged UA attacks on Tatarstan targeted civilian infrastructure near the drone factory. Russian court sentenced 3 alleged SBU agents to 23-24 years for terror acts in DNR (2016-2018). Ukrainian Coordination HQ highlights lack of official Russian information on POWs and limited ICRC access to places of detention in occupied territories. Reports of alleged torture of activist in Voronezh by security forces. UA source (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС) reports Ukrainian forces captured and provided medical aid to a Russian mercenary (Senegalese), indicating compliance with humane treatment of POWs. RU source (WarGonzo) claims 4 WIA (incl. 2 children in serious condition) in Lysychansk from alleged UA shelling. UA source (Mash) claims UA drone attacked a civilian official's car in Zaporizhzhia, no casualties. RU source (ASTRA) reports activist Alexander Zhelutukhin claims torture during detention in Voronezh.

VII. Information Operations

  • Russian IO: Promoting Sukha Balka and Tarasivka captures and claimed advances near Toretsk/Petrovka/Dachne and Bohatyr/Otradne. Highlighting Russian strikes (Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Poltava energy, Odesa "Unitech", Kherson transformers, Druzhba positions, Stepne workshop/depot, Staraya Nikolaevka, claimed hits on military airfield infra, production, drone sites, Vampire MLRS, TPDs in 147 areas, hidden fuel depot, Gvozdika SPG). Emphasizing alleged Ukrainian attacks on Russian civilians/territory (Bryansk 56 houses claim, Belgorod casualty, Makiivka school drone, Tatarstan drone attacks near factory, claiming 4 shot down, Bryansk FPV civilian injury claim, Lysychansk WIA including children claim). Dismissing reports of willingness to freeze conflict/compromise, denying specific proposals (FT report). Blaming Ukraine/downplaying significance of London talks postponement/downgrade, promoting analysis framing US/RU direct talks over EU objections, highlighting US SecState Rubio (incorrect title) statements on US understanding of RU position and potential harsher terms for Ukraine if talks fail, and Matviyenko's stance on European troops. Promoting Russian military "heroes"/units (T-72 crew, BARS-KURSK, 16th NBC Bde, 810th Marine Brigade, "Rubikon" Center, "Vega" unit), highlighting specific operations (Kursk border, Hornal, Oleshnya, Novopavlivsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk), publishing battlefield videos (tank ops, helicopter strikes, FPV drone attacks, drone compilation by Архангел Спецназа), claiming destruction of UA equipment (including claimed Western equipment like M777, PzH 2000, AN/TPQ-48, Kvertus/Nota EW, M113, JDAM, HIMARS, Vampire, Bradley, BTR, MaxPro). Framing Sukha Balka capture's strategic impact and detailed planning involved. Promoting alleged decreased Ukrainian air defense effectiveness vs. Geran drones. Promoting claimed EW success vs FPVs (Pokrovsk). Promoting coordination of ground assaults via drones. Promoting alleged finding of abandoned UA equipment (Kursk). Highlighting internal crackdown (stripping citizenship from anti-war comedians, sentencing of alleged SBU agents for terror acts, alleged torture of activist), exposing false SVO participation claim by deputy. Promoting support for SVO veterans and families, including management programs, giving badges to children ("My dad is a hero"). Fundraising appeals (specific VDV needs, NVG, drones, comms, aid for Donbas/SVO children, EW system for Kursk border unit, DJI drones for 60th Motor Rifle Brigade). Promoting Putin's statements on increasing military production (EW, robots, boats, lasers, FPVs), FPV importance ("most serious factor for combat success"), and AI advantage, stating all armies are studying Russian experience, noting issues with drone numbers and satellite infrastructure. Framing proposed UA "National Resistance Training Centers" as forced mobilization for sabotage/terrorism for Western partners. Claiming Russian control percentages for occupied/border oblasts. Promoting visual of Russian aircraft/ordnance. Documenting decoration of ruined Bakhmut for WWII anniversary. Claiming Poland/Baltics energy issues after decoupling from RU system as failed Western directive. Anticipating captured soldier will claim coercion post-exchange. Highlighting protests against municipal reform by servicemen in Krasnoyarsk Krai. Naryshkin commenting on EU 9 May ban. Promoting claimed success repelling UA invasion attempt in Kursk (RU MoD, Basurin, Poddubny). Promoting massive cumulative UA losses in Kursk direction (graphic, Basurin). Using "Immortal Regiment Online" for Victory Day narrative, linking current military actions to WWII. Highlighting property damage and alleged looting by RU forces in Belgorod Oblast (ASTRA reports). Rybar reports on Turkish/Azerbaijani media expansion as a challenge, and RU diplomatic activity in Somalia. Using Moscow City incident for IO, circulating conflicting reports (accident vs. attack), suggesting UA involvement or remote control activity. Promoting prosecution/asset seizure against former official Anatoly Chubais as a measure against perceived disloyalty. Highlighting state-backed sports and rehabilitation programs for SVO veterans as part of social support. RU source (Rybar) reports sanctions on 21 UK parliamentarians. RU source (Basurin) frames Rubios comments on talks as failure for UA/EU. RU source (Poddubny) interviews commander "Antey" on tactical success near Hornal. RU source (Mash) claims UA drone attacked civilian official's car in Zaporizhzhia. RU source (Colonelcassad) shares a video claiming Kh-39 strike on UA drone control point. RU source (Colonelcassad) shares a video claiming that a book presentation in Sevastopol is a fake operation by Ukrainian intelligence.
  • Ukrainian IO: Highlighting Marhanets mass casualty bus attack as war crime, providing details on casualties/severity, noting frequency of such FPV attacks on civilians, declaring days of mourning. Publicizing Kherson energy facility destruction and other civilian impacts/casualties (updated Zaporizhzhia count, Kharkiv fatality, WIA in other regions, updated Dnipropetrovsk casualties/damage). Reporting updated drone interception statistics (67 downed strike UAVs, 47 imitators neutralized). Providing visual confirmation of downed RU drones. Reporting repelled attacks & claimed RU losses (GSh, OTU Kharkiv, UA units). Showcasing UA drone effectiveness (FPV strikes, coordinating ops, destroying RU armor/infantry, destroying expensive RU drones). Promoting UA stance/rejection of compromising peace terms (Crimea, territory transfer before full ceasefire), reiterating readiness for talks conditioned on RU ceasefire. Highlighting BILD/WP assessment of US proposal as unilateral/pro-Russian due to territory concessions. Reporting capture of RU POWs, including African mercenary from Senegal. Publicizing POW/MIA family support efforts (new psychological support hotline, meetings with Coordination HQ and specific unit families - 92nd AB, Burevii, Maritime Guard, 169th Training Center - detailing challenges with RU lack of info/ICRC access, identification efforts, financial/social support). Publicizing successful fundraiser closure (highlighting RU FPV threat impact on evac/resupply & need for EW/drones), calling for donations for drones/weapons. Publicizing detention/sentencing of alleged RU informant (railway worker sentenced to 15 years for treason). Claiming elimination of high-ranking RU officers (Tu-22M3 commander, Naval Inf Cmdr). Countering RU narratives about London talks/European stance on sanctions/Crimea, emphasizing European requirement for territorial integrity. Publicizing change of command at 30th Mech Bde. Highlighting RU morale issues (captured soldier interview showing emotion), exposing Russian deputy's false SVO claim. Highlighting air threats. Highlighting UA GUR unit successes on Zaporizhzhia direction. Reporting/documenting alleged UA drone attacks on Tatarstan drone factory (Alabuga), confirming hits (at least 5) and providing details on aircraft/warheads used. Reporting on IDP support efforts, civilian resilience (sewing business). Publicizing financial/economic diplomatic efforts (Shmyhal in Washington, mineral resources agreement). Promoting psychological support for troops/families. Exposing internal RU official's false SVO claim. Highlighting Poland's stance (no reason for Ukraine to capitulate, China's potential role). Using DeepState map/analysis to show RU advances in Toretsk direction. Promoting Ukrainian patriotism and cultural resistance (poetry collection in Kryvyi Rih). Highlighting internal security/anti-corruption efforts (SBU/Police detaining KMDA official for bribery, Kyiv Podilskyi bridge embezzlement case highlighted in previous report). Celebrating Ukrainian military psychologists on their professional day (April 23). Highlighting medical support capabilities of the 22nd Mechanized Brigade. UA source (Оперативний ЗСУ) cites NASA imagery showing fires at 51 GRAU depots. UA source (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС) reports capture and medical treatment of a Russian mercenary. UA source (РБК-Україна) reports on analyst assessment of RU goal vs feasibility by May 9. UA source (РБК-Україна) reports on car explosion in Kyiv.
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