Military Situation Update
As of Wed Apr 23 11:34:47 2025
I. Strategic & Air Warfare
- Major Russian UAV/Missile Attack Aftermath (Night/Morning Apr 22-23): Russia launched 134 aerial objects, including 67 strike UAVs (Shahed/Geran types) and 47 "imitator drones". Ukrainian Air Force confirmed interception of 67 strike UAVs. One missile threat towards Odesa/Mykolaiv Oblasts was eliminated. Russian sources claim decreased Ukrainian air defense effectiveness against Geran drones.
- Civilian Impacts: Attacks resulted in a MASS CASUALTY EVENT in Marhanets (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast) where an FPV drone struck a civilian bus, killing 9 civilians and wounding 43. Strikes also impacted Poltava (6 wounded), Odesa (2 wounded), Dnipropetrovsk (2 wounded), and Kyiv Oblast. One civilian fatality confirmed in Kharkiv city following yesterday's shelling. A previous attack update for Zaporizhzhia Oblast reported the total number of injured has risen to 42, with 14 hospitalized (including critical cases, pregnant woman, 5 children).
- Kherson City/Oblast: CRITICAL ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE DESTROYED, a key facility supplying Kherson city, by sustained Russian attacks, potentially leading to power outages.
- Ongoing Air Threats: Tactical aviation activity noted in Eastern, SE, NE, and Southern directions with potential air strikes. KAB/KAR threats declared towards Sumy, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson Oblasts. Reconnaissance UAVs reported over northern Chernihiv and western Sumy Oblasts.
- Ukrainian Strikes vs. Russian Territory: Alleged UA drone attacks over the past day reportedly destroyed 56 houses in Bryansk Oblast (Requires verification). An FPV drone attack in Belgorod Oblast reportedly injured 1 civilian. Drone activity and explosions reported over Yelabuga, Tatarstan, near a military drone factory. RU MoD claimed 1 UA UAV destroyed over Tatarstan, while RU sources claimed 4 shot down near the "Alabuga" SEZ plant. Ukrainian sources confirm hits on the 'Alabuga' special economic zone in Tatarstan, targeting the drone production facility, reporting six aircraft with 250kg warheads used, one downed and at least five hitting targets approximately 1700km from Ukraine. Citizen reports from Yelabuga indicate drone presence.
- Russian Airspace: Flight restrictions at Kazan, Ulyanovsk, Nizhnekamsk airports were temporarily introduced/reintroduced after the Tatarstan drone attack but have since been lifted for Kazan and Nizhnekamsk.
- Kirzhach Arsenal Fire Aftermath (Vladimir Oblast, Russia): Detonations gradually ceasing, but extensive forest fires persist. State of Emergency remains, with 4 civilians injured and 533 evacuated.
- Russian Claims of UA Border Attacks: RU sources claim a UA FPV drone attack injured 1 civilian in a minibus in Podlesnye Novoselki, Sevsky district, Bryansk Oblast. RU MoD claims repelling an attempt by UA forces to invade Kursk region on April 23, stating the "Sever Group of Forces" hit UA units near Gornal and Oleshnya.
II. Naval Activity
- Black Sea: Two Russian Kalibr missile carriers active, elevating the missile threat.
- Sea of Azov: No enemy vessels detected.
- Mediterranean Sea: Three Russian warships present, including two Kalibr carriers.
- Kerch Strait: Transit continues.
III. Frontline Operations
- Overall Assessment: Russian forces maintain offensive pressure, particularly on the Pokrovsk axis, which continues to experience the highest intensity (53 assaults repelled Apr 22). Increased Russian activity is noted on the Zaporizhzhia axis. Ukrainian intelligence assesses Russian forces are regrouping and transferring troops/equipment from Crimea and Russia to the southern front (Zaporizhzhia, Kherson areas) for expected intensification. Heavy use of UAVs, KABs, and artillery continues. Ukrainian forces are actively defending. 144 combat clashes were recorded on April 22. Tactical Group "Vuhledar" reports a significant decrease in RU assaults on the southern Donetsk front (Apr 16-22), attributing it to accumulation of personnel/equipment for a large offensive.
- Russian Objectives: OSUV "Khortytsia" reports Russia plans to reach the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by May 9, continuing attacks on the Pokrovsk axis in multiple locations. Tactical Group "Vuhledar" reinforces this objective for the southern Donetsk front.
- Kursk/Sumy Border Zone: Ukrainian operations continue in Kursk Oblast (22 RU assaults repelled Apr 22). Intensive fighting near Hornal is reported. Russian sources claim expanding their zone of control and advancing up to 1.5km near the demarcation line. Russian Spetsnaz units are confirmed operating near Demidovka. RU MoD claims hitting UA formations near several Sumy Oblast settlements. RU MoD reports repelling UA attempts to invade Kursk region on April 23.
- Kharkiv Direction: 4 Russian attacks were repelled near Vovchansk (Apr 22). The situation is complex but controlled. Russian forces conducted 3 air strikes (5 KABs), used 86 kamikaze drones, and 751 shelling incidents (Apr 22). RU MoD claims hitting UA manpower/equipment near Vovchansk, Liptsy, and Malye Prokhody.
- Kupyansk Axis: RU MoD claims "Zapad" Group of Forces occupied more advantageous lines/positions and hit UA formations in several Kharkiv Oblast settlements and Ryggorodka (Luhansk).
- Lyman Axis: RU MoD claims "Zapad" Group of Forces hit UA formations in Kirovsk and Yampol (Donetsk).
- Toretsk Axis: 13 Russian attacks were repelled near Dachne, Druzhba, Toretsk, towards Shcherbynivka (Apr 22). Russian forces confirmed control of Sukha Balka. Russian sources claim successful advances near Tarasivka and towards Nelepivka, entering Dachne, and an advance up to 800m south of Petrivka. Russian sources confirm liberation of Tarasivka, with video evidence. RU sources (Voyenkor Kotenok) report RU 150th MSD advancing towards Romanovka and Staraya Nikolaevka (Pravdovka), consolidating positions NE of Petrovskoye (Novospasskoye). RU 20th MSD reportedly advancing towards Staraya Nikolaevka (Pravdovka) from the west. Ukrainian forces captured an African mercenary from Senegal near Toretsk.
- Pokrovsk Axis (Highest Intensity): 53 Russian assaults were repelled (Apr 22). Russian sources claim resumed envelopment efforts and advances despite fierce Ukrainian resistance near Selydove. RU MoD claims "Tsentr" Group of Forces improved position along the forward edge and hit UA formations near Krasnoarmeysk, Udachnoye, Muravka, Alexeevka, Grishino, Dimitrov, Zverevo, and Novopavlivka. Russia continues attacks on multiple locations aiming for the Dnipropetrovsk border by May 9.
- Novopavlivsk Axis (South Donetsk / Vremivka): 17 Russian attacks were repelled (Apr 22). Tactical Group "Vuhledar" reports decreased RU assaults but force accumulation for a large offensive aiming for the Dnipropetrovsk/Donetsk border by May 9. RU MoD claims "Vostok" Group of Forces continued advancement deeper into enemy defense and hit UA formations near Tolstoy, Volnoe Pole, Bogatyr, and Zelnoe Pole.
- Zaporizhzhia Axis (Orikhiv / Polohy): 5 Russian attacks were repelled (Apr 22). Increased Russian assault activity is reported, with positional fighting and Ukrainian counterattacks. Ukrainian intelligence assesses troop transfers for expected intensification. High activity of Russian FPV drones is reported on the Vasylivka - Tokmak highway and nearby settlements. RU MoD claims "Dniepr" Group of Forces hit UA formations near Magdalinovka, Kamenskoye, and Zaporizhzhia city. Ukrainian GUR units claim destroying over 100 pieces of Russian equipment and eliminating over 150 occupiers on the Zaporizhzhia direction over the past week.
- Huliaipole Axis: No active Russian offensive actions were reported (Apr 22). Russian intelligence assesses troop transfers for expected intensification.
- Kherson Axis (Prydniprovskyi): No active Russian offensive actions were reported (Apr 22). Key energy infrastructure was destroyed. Russian intelligence assesses troop transfers for expected intensification.
IV. Political & Diplomatic Context
- London Peace Talks (Apr 23 - POSTPONED/DOWNGRADED): The planned ministerial meeting of UK, US, FR, DE, UA Foreign Ministers will not occur at the ministerial level. Discussions are proceeding between officials and experts behind closed doors. The postponement is widely attributed to Ukraine's rejection of reported US proposals involving territorial concessions, specifically regarding recognition of Russian control over Crimea and preference to first discuss a full ceasefire. US Special Envoy Keith Kellogg is leading the US delegation.
- US Stance: US Vice President JD Vance officially stated that the US proposal involves freezing the borders near current lines and requiring some territorial exchanges. Vance reportedly stated the US might withdraw from mediation if its "clear and fair proposal" is rejected by both sides. The US does not support Russian demilitarization demands and does not object to European forces providing future security guarantees for Ukraine (Reuters).
- Ukrainian Stance (Official): Ukraine's First Vice Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko confirmed at the London meeting that Ukraine is ready to negotiate but not surrender. She stated that a full ceasefire (land, air, sea) is a necessary first step. Ukraine rejects a frozen conflict and will never recognize the occupation of Crimea. Ukraine demands binding security guarantees strong and clear enough to deter future aggression if NATO membership is not immediate.
- European Stance: UK and French officials are reportedly open to a scenario involving de facto recognition of the current line of control in exchange for robust security guarantees (WSJ/Reuters), preferring a "Korean War-style" truce. The EU reportedly opposes lifting sanctions on Russia before negotiations conclude and opposes recognizing Crimea as Russian.
- Russian Stance on Negotiations: Russian sources dismiss Western reports of readiness to freeze the conflict and emphasize controlling "new regions." They frame the London talks downgrade as Ukrainian inflexibility and failure. The Kremlin reiterates readiness for talks if Ukraine lifts its legal ban on negotiating with Putin. Peskov stated discussions on settlement are confidential. Russia remains against deploying peacekeepers in Ukraine. Russian MFA (Lavrov) stated the next round of Russian-American negotiations will take place soon.
- International Relations: Russia expressed strong protest to Japan over the intention to use income from frozen Russian assets for credit to Ukraine. Sergey Naryshkin, Head of Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service, called potential EU official bans from 9 May events in Russia "disgusting," framing it as indicating opposition to Victory over Nazi Germany and support for fascism.
- Russian Internal: The arrest of a Russian House employee and others in Osh, Kyrgyzstan for alleged mercenary recruitment for Russian forces is confirmed. The FSB claimed detention/expulsion of a former Moldovan security service member linked to Ukrainian GUR. Stand-up comics Vyacheslav Komissarenko and Dmitry Romanov were stripped of Russian citizenship and banned entry for anti-war stance/support for Ukraine. Mishustin ordered federal property tax benefits for SVO veterans and their families. Lavrov stated measures to reduce labor migrants are likely not in Russia's interest due to labor shortages. Protests against municipal reform by servicemen from Krasnoyarsk Krai are reported. A Krasnoyarsk official was exposed for falsely claiming SVO participation for a management program for veterans and removed from his leadership role.
V. Logistics, Capabilities & Losses
- Ukrainian:
- Civilian Losses/Damage: 9 KIA, 43 WIA (Marhanets bus attack), 6 WIA (Poltava), 1 KIA (Kharkiv city), 4 WIA (Kupyansk), 2 WIA (Raivska hromada), 2 WIA (Odesa), 42 WIA total from previous Zaporizhzhia attack (14 hospitalized, including critical cases, pregnant woman, 5 children). Critical energy facility destroyed (Kherson). Extensive damage to civilian infrastructure across multiple oblasts.
- Military Losses (RU Claims): Approx. 1210 personnel KIA/WIA (GSh, Apr 22). RU MoD claims total losses over past day exceed 1265 personnel, numerous equipment units including tanks, APCs, vehicles, artillery, MLRS, radars, EW stations, and ammunition depots. RU MoD claims over 170 personnel and a Bradley IFV were lost in the Kursk direction in the past 24 hours. RU MoD provides axis-specific claims for Apr 23: "Sever" (up to 50 personnel, BTR, vehicles, 4 arty incl. M777, radar, depot), "Zapad" (up to 250 personnel, 7 vehicles, PzH 2000, AN/TPQ-48 radar, 2 EW stations, 3 depots), "Yuzhnaya" (up to 335 personnel, 3 AFV, 8 vehicles, 2 arty, 4 depots), "Tsentr" (up to 370 personnel, 2 tanks, 5 AFV incl. M113, 2 vehicles, 2 arty), "Vostok" (up to 175 personnel, M113, 3 AFV, 3 vehicles, 2 arty, EW station), "Dniepr" (up to 85 personnel, 6 vehicles, counter-battery radar, EW station, 2 depots, property depot). RU MoD claims massive cumulative losses in the Kursk direction since the start of hostilities (>75,710 personnel, hundreds/thousands of equipment units).
- Losses (Officer - UA Claim): Claimed elimination of several named RU officers, including Major Rasul Zhantuyev (Tu-22M3 commander) and Lt Col Alexander Bezin (FSB reserve, 155th Naval Inf Bde Cdr).
- Losses (Confirmed/Observed): Ongoing disruption at Kirzhach arsenal. Visual confirmation of multiple downed/neutralized RU drones (Geran/Shahed types). RU source confirms 4 UA drones shot down over Tatarstan near the Yelabuga drone factory, with one UAV destroyed confirmed by RU MoD. Missile elimination near Odesa reported. Video shows large cemetery section with alleged SVO KIA graves (RU sources).
- Capabilities: Active AD & EW (Confirmed 67 strike UAVs intercepted, 47 imitators neutralized). Visual confirmation of downed drones. Successful missile elimination reported. Highly active drone operations. Psychological support hotline for POW/MIA families established. Alleged RU informant detained in Cherkasy Oblast. Railway worker sentenced to 15 years for state treason (passing intel on UA military rail movements/fortifications to RU intel Telegram bot). Formation of new 8th Air Assault Corps reported. UA GUR units claim significant equipment and personnel losses inflicted on Russian forces on the Zaporizhzhia direction over the past week. Ukrainian sources claim successful attacks on the Alabuga drone production facility in Tatarstan, using aircraft with 250kg warheads and achieving at least 5 hits. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports delivery of substantial aid including vehicles, 100 drones (day camera), EW systems, drone detectors, and other equipment to units on the Zaporizhzhia front.
- Needs/Gaps: Fundraising appeals highlight severe impact of RU FPV drones on MEDEVAC and ammunition resupply, causing casualties, and the need for EW systems and Mavic drones. Ukrainian source calls for donations for drones/weapons following Putin's statements on FPV importance.
- Personnel: 9 RU POWs were captured (Kursk, Apr 20). Meetings held with families of UA POWs/MIAs. Change of Command at 30th Mech Bde. Alleged forced mobilization attempt in Lutsk reported. Capture of an African mercenary from Senegal near Toretsk.
- Russian:
- Losses (UA Claims): Approx. 1210 personnel KIA/WIA (GSh). 96 personnel (Kharkiv Dir). Significant equipment losses claimed. UA GUR units claim eliminating over 150 occupiers and destroying over 100 pieces of equipment on the Zaporizhzhia direction over the past week.
- Losses (Officer - UA Claim): Claimed elimination of several high-ranking officers, including Major Rasul Zhantuyev (Tu-22M3 commander) and Lt Col Alexander Bezin (FSB reserve, 155th Naval Inf Bde Cdr).
- Losses (Confirmed/Observed): Ongoing significant disruption at Kirzhach arsenal. Downed "Baba Yaga" drone claimed (Kursk). Visual confirmation of multiple downed/neutralized RU drones (Geran/Shahed types). RU source confirms 4 UA drones shot down over Tatarstan, with one confirmed destroyed by RU MoD. Missile elimination near Odesa reported. Video shows large cemetery section with alleged SVO KIA graves. RU MoD claims over 170 UA troops lost in the Kursk direction in the past 24 hours. RU MoD provides axis-specific claims for Apr 23 (details above). RU MoD claims massive cumulative losses in the Kursk direction since the start of hostilities (>75,710 personnel, hundreds/thousands of equipment units), including specific Western equipment like HIMARS and Vampire MLRS.
- Capabilities: Sustained heavy UAV/KAB/missile/artillery strikes. Active tactical aviation. Increased Black Sea Kalibr capacity. AD active over RU. Claims targeting UA production/ammo/comms/arty/PVDs/howitzer/armor/strongholds. Confirmed capture of Sukha Balka, claimed liberation of Tarasivka. Claimed successful use of EW to counter UA FPV drones. Use of drones for coordinating ground assaults and strikes. Activities of BARS-KURSK volunteer brigade detailed. Use of incendiary UAVs. Detailed reconnaissance/planning before assaults. Use of drones to track vehicles to PVDs. Claimed use of motorcycles for rapid assaults. Putin stated production of EW means increased by more than double last year, and ordered accelerating production of robot complexes, uncrewed boats, and combat lasers. Putin demanded active use of AI on the battlefield and stated all armies are studying Russian experience. Putin stated FPV drones are still not sufficient but production will be increased, calling them the "most serious factor for combat success." RU MoD claims destroying 9 JDAM, 3 HIMARS, 4 Vampire MLRS rockets, 166 UAVs on Apr 23. RU MoD claims destroying UA PzH 2000, AN/TPQ-48 radar, Kvertus and Nota EW stations, M113s, counter-battery radar, EW station on various axes on Apr 23.
- Needs/Gaps: Fundraising appeals highlight the need for night vision devices, Mavic drones (various models), drone detectors, radios, and 5.45mm magazines for units on the Zaporizhzhia axis (specific appeal from 7th Guards Air Assault Division details needs). Putin stated FPV drones are still not sufficient but production will be increased. Lavrov stated measures to reduce labor migrants are likely not in Russia's interest due to labor shortages.
- Personnel/Morale Issues: Captured soldier testimony indicates poor preparedness/morale. Arrest of alleged mercenary recruiter in Kyrgyzstan. Reports of forced conscription/abuses. Mercenary complaint video highlights command incompetence leading to high losses. Video shows captured Russian soldier (Sergey Kholodkov) expressing emotion and discussing what he'd say to Putin. Russian source claims Ukrainian forces in Sukha Balka fired on their own soldiers trying to leave positions. Krasnoyarsk official exposed for falsely claiming SVO participation.
- Gas Imports: Russia occupied second place after the US in total value of gas imports to the EU in February, despite the cessation of transit through Ukraine.
VI. Humanitarian & Ethical Dimensions
- Civilian Impact (Ukraine): 9 KIA, 43 WIA (Marhanets bus attack), 6 WIA (Poltava), 1 KIA (Kharkiv city), 4 WIA (Kupyansk), 2 WIA (Raivska hromada), 2 WIA (Odesa), 42 WIA total from previous Zaporizhzhia attack (14 hospitalized). Widespread damage to civilian infrastructure, including destruction of the Kherson energy facility. Ruins of Bakhmut decorated with propaganda banners. IDP living conditions are being improved in Zaporizhzhia Oblast with international support.
- Civilian Impact (Russia/Occupied Areas): Claim 56 houses destroyed by UA drones in Bryansk Oblast. Claim 1 civilian WIA in Belgorod Oblast. Civilian impact reported in Tatarstan near the Yelabuga drone factory. 4 civilians WIA, 533 evacuated due to Kirzhach arsenal fire/detonations. Claim UA drone fell on schoolyard in Makiivka, did not detonate. Claim 1 civilian WIA in Podlesnye Novoselki, Bryansk Oblast, from UA FPV drone.
- LOAC Violations/Concerns: Confirmed Russian attack causing mass civilian casualties in Marhanets (FPV drone on civilian bus). Persistent Russian attacks impacting civilian infrastructure and destroying the Kherson energy facility. Russian source claims Ukrainian forces fired on their own soldiers trying to leave positions near Sukha Balka. Russian claims of extensive Ukrainian attacks on civilian housing in Bryansk Oblast and civilian casualties in Belgorod and Bryansk. Russian claims UA drone fell on schoolyard (Makiivka). Russian claims alleged UA attacks on Tatarstan targeted civilian infrastructure near the drone factory. Russian court sentenced 3 alleged SBU agents to 23-24 years for terror acts in DNR (2016-2018).
VII. Information Operations
- Russian IO: Promoting Sukha Balka and Tarasivka captures. Highlighting Russian strikes (Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Poltava energy, Odesa "Unitech", Kherson transformers, Druzhba positions, Stepne workshop/depot, Staraya Nikolaevka, claimed hits on military airfield infra, production, drone sites, Vampire MLRS, TPDs in 147 areas). Emphasizing alleged Ukrainian attacks on Russian civilians/territory (Bryansk 56 houses claim, Belgorod casualty, Makiivka school drone, Tatarstan drone attacks near factory, claiming 4 shot down, Bryansk FPV civilian injury claim). Dismissing reports of willingness to freeze conflict/compromise. Blaming Ukraine/downplaying significance of London talks postponement/downgrade; promoting analysis framing US/RU direct talks over EU objections. Promoting Russian military "heroes"/units. Fundraising appeals (specific VDV needs listed). Promoting alleged Ukrainian equipment destruction (including claimed Western equipment like M777, PzH 2000, AN/TPQ-48, Kvertus/Nota EW, M113, JDAM, HIMARS, Vampire). Framing Sukha Balka capture's strategic impact and detailed planning involved. Promoting alleged decreased Ukrainian air defense effectiveness vs. Geran drones. Promoting claimed EW success vs FPVs (Pokrovsk). Promoting coordination of ground assaults via drones. Promoting alleged finding of abandoned UA equipment (Kursk). Highlighting internal crackdown (stripping citizenship from anti-war comedians, sentencing of alleged SBU agents for terror acts). Promoting narrative of Western disunity/aid fatigue. Promoting "Victory Dictation" event. Justifying criticism of RosSotrudnichestvo. Claiming UA forces in Sukha Balka fired on their own soldiers trying to leave positions. Promoting Putin's statements on increasing military production (EW, robots, boats, lasers, FPVs), FPV importance ("most serious factor for combat success"), and AI advantage, stating all armies are studying Russian experience. Framing proposed UA "National Resistance Training Centers" as forced mobilization for sabotage/terrorism for Western partners. Claiming Russian control percentages for occupied/border oblasts. Promoting visual of Russian aircraft/ordnance. Documenting decoration of ruined Bakhmut for WWII anniversary. Claiming Poland/Baltics energy issues after decoupling from RU system as failed Western directive. Anticipating captured soldier will claim coercion post-exchange. Highlighting protests against municipal reform by servicemen in Krasnoyarsk Krai. Naryshkin commenting on EU 9 May ban. Promoting claimed success repelling UA invasion attempt in Kursk. Promoting massive cumulative UA losses in Kursk direction (graphic).
- Ukrainian IO: Highlighting Marhanets mass casualty bus attack as war crime. Publicizing Kherson energy facility destruction and other civilian impacts/casualties (updated Zaporizhzhia count, Kharkiv fatality). Reporting updated drone interception statistics (67 downed strike UAVs, 47 imitators neutralized). Providing visual confirmation of downed RU drones. Reporting repelled attacks & claimed RU losses. Showcasing UA drone effectiveness. Promoting UA stance/rejection of compromising peace terms (Crimea, territory transfer) & readiness for talks. Highlighting BILD/WP assessment of US proposal as unilateral/pro-Russian due to territory concessions. Reporting capture of RU POWs. Publicizing POW/MIA family support efforts (new psychological support hotline). Publicizing successful fundraiser closure (highlighting RU FPV threat impact on evac/resupply & need for EW/drones), calling for donations for drones/weapons. Publicizing detention/sentencing of alleged RU informant (railway worker sentenced to 15 years for treason). Claiming elimination of high-ranking RU officers (Tu-22M3 commander, Naval Inf Cmdr). Countering RU narratives about London talks/European stance on sanctions/Crimea. Publicizing change of command at 30th Mech Bde. Highlighting RU morale issues (captured soldier interview showing emotion). Highlighting air threats. Highlighting UA GUR unit successes on Zaporizhzhia direction. Reporting/documenting alleged UA drone attacks on Tatarstan drone factory (Alabuga), confirming hits (at least 5) and providing details on aircraft/warheads used. Reporting on IDP support efforts. Highlighting capture of an African mercenary near Toretsk. Zaporizhzhia OVA reporting delivery of substantial aid package (vehicles, 100 drones, EW, detectors, etc.) to units on the Zaporizhzhia front. Official statement on negotiation stance from First Vice PM Y. Svyrydenko. Exposing internal RU official's false SVO claim.