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Historical Intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing

Report Time
2025-04-22 13:55:24Z
10 months ago
Previous (2025-04-22 13:25:07Z)

Military Situation Update: Key Developments

As of Tue Apr 22 13:53:26 2025


I. Strategic & Air Warfare

  • Major Ukrainian Deep Strike (Confirmed):
    • Vladimir Oblast, Russia (Apr 22): Confirmed Ukrainian strike targeted the 51st Main Missile and Artillery Directorate (GRAU) arsenal near Kirzhach district. Multiple sources confirm a massive explosion with subsequent detonations and fire.
      • Impact: Significant destruction reported. Roads near the arsenal closed. Evacuation confirmed from nearby settlements of Barsovo and Mirny. Locals reported losing windows.
      • Arsenal Contents (UA Claim): UA sources (Operatyvnyi ZSU citing network data) claim the arsenal stored approximately 105,000 tons of munitions, including rockets, artillery shells, MLRS rockets, SAM components (e.g., S-300), and tactical missiles (e.g., Tochka-U).
      • Official Confirmation: RU Governor of Vladimir Oblast confirmed an explosion occurred; responsible services are working.
      • Potential Cause (RU Claim - Unverified): RU media cited by RVvoenkor claims detonation occurred during shell unloading.
      • (This significantly upgrades previous reports based on RU sources and video).
  • Russian Air/Drone Strikes:
    • Kharkiv City Drone Attack (Major Event - Updated):
      • Scale & Timing: Mass strike involving 16 Shahed-type UAVs occurred during daytime (started ~09:10 UTC, mass strikes 12:55-13:36 local time).
      • Impact: At least 12 UAV impacts confirmed across four districts (Shevchenkivskyi, Novobavarskyi, Kyivskyi, Saltivskyi). Fires reported. Damage to residential buildings, cars confirmed (Zelenskyy photos/videos).
      • Casualties (Updated via Syniehubov): 9 civilians wounded. Includes 1 critical, 4 hospitalized (surgery/neuro/trauma), 1 explosive wound, 3 outpatient. (Previous report: 8 WIA).
      • RU Claims/Tactics: RU sources claim use of updated/daytime capable "Geran" drones with new tactic of high-speed dive from 2000-2500m altitude, allegedly harder to intercept (Dva Mayora). Specific claims of targeting: Ukrelectromash plant (Saltivskyi), alleged repair/assembly workshops (Nemyshlya district), alleged rocket production (Malysheva St.), alleged military location (Somovskaya St.) (Dnevnik Desantnika).
      • Status: Rescue operations were ongoing. Air alert remained active earlier with continued RU tactical aviation threat.
    • Zaporizhzhia City KAB Strike (Updated Casualty Status): Attack occurred ~08:40 UTC Apr 22. One KAB hit infrastructure, one hit residential building.
      • Confirmed Casualties (Updated via Zaporizhzhia OVA): 1 civilian killed (F), 26 civilians wounded (incl. 4 children). 12 remain hospitalized, including 4 critical (M37, M67, F57, F67) and the 4 children. All have mine-explosive trauma. Others moderate condition.
      • Significant damage to residential buildings/vehicles. Rescue ops were ongoing. OGP investigation opened (Art. 438 CCU).
    • Odesa Drone Attack (Apr 21 Night - Updated):
      • Damage Confirmed: Previous Shahed attack caused extensive damage to a civilian fitness club (Sternenko - video confirmation). Damage also confirmed to a business center, a restaurant, and partial destruction of a school for visually impaired children (hit territory) (Dumska via UA Sources). Damage also previously confirmed to residential buildings, educational institution, vehicles.
      • RU Claims (Tactics): RU sources (Colonelcassad/ramzayiegokomanda) allege new Shahed tactics used: operated as organized group/swarm; used recon UAVs for target assessment/AD system detection; flew higher trajectories; attacked target simultaneously from multiple directions. Claimed 1 Gepard SPG damaged/destroyed. Compared tactics to P-700 Granit missile operations.
      • RU Claims (Targets): Alleged hits on industrial zone East of airport (weapons production/storage) and port territory (Poddubny).
    • Sumy Oblast KAB Threat (Ongoing):
      • (NEW) UA AF reports KAB launches towards Sumy city / Sumy district (13:44 UTC).
      • UA AF previously reported ongoing KAB threat towards Sumy city (12:02 UTC) and repeated launches towards Sumy district (12:38 UTC).
    • Kupyansk (Kharkiv Obl.) KAB Strike (Previous Report): Four KABs struck. 4 civilians wounded. 55 private houses damaged/destroyed.
    • Kharkiv Oblast FPV Strike (Civilian KIA - Confirmed): 1 civilian (M, 24) killed by RU FPV drone while on scooter near Ivashky (Bohodukhiv district) (UA Prosecutor - Apr 22 morning report).
    • Kharkiv Oblast Airstrikes (Civilian WIA - Confirmed): 2 civilians injured due to series of RU airstrikes on Horokhovatka (Izium district). Significant damage: 4 homes fire, 11 others damaged; outbuilding/garage fires; 3 shops damaged (UA SES - Apr 22 morning report).
    • Kupyansk Shelling (Civilian WIA - Confirmed): 1 civilian (F, 58) injured (severe stress) due to evening artillery shelling (UA Prosecutor - Apr 22 morning report).
  • Claimed Ukrainian Strikes:
    • Kursk Oblast S-400 Strike (Apr 11 - Confirmed): UA sources (Operatyvnyi ZSU) claim successful drone strike targeted hangars near Sorokin, damaging an S-400 air defense complex (command vehicle, radar, 2 launchers, 6 missiles). (Corroborates previous report).
  • Potential Ukrainian AEW&C Capability: Russian sources continue to speculate on deployment/testing of Swedish Saab 340 AEW&C (ASC 890). (From previous report).
  • Confirmed Japanese Intelligence Support: Japan finalizing agreement to provide SAR satellite intelligence to Ukraine's GUR (Acknowledged by RU sources - Voenkor Kotenok).
  • Claimed Russian Destruction of High-Value UA Asset (Kramatorsk Area): RU sources claim destruction of a US-supplied HIMARS MLRS near Serhiivka (Donetsk Oblast) via Lancet + Iskander strike, guided by ZALA Z-16 UAV. Video provided. (Requires verification).
  • Russian MoD Claims (Previous Reports): Extensive claims of UA losses and strikes across various axes (summarized in previous reports).

II. Frontline Operations

  • General: UA GSFU reported 85 combat clashes across the front as of 16:00 UTC, Apr 22. Ukrainian forces continue efforts to attrit Russian forces along the entire line of contact and in the rear.
  • Potential Major Russian Offensive Preparations (Dnipropetrovsk Direction - UA Intel Claim): UA sources report potential Russian preparations for a significant offensive towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, aiming for a breakthrough by May 9th. Alleged goal includes shifting conflict narrative. (Requires careful monitoring).
  • Pokrovsk Axis (Highest Intensity):
    • UA GSFU (16:00 UTC): 33 Russian assaults/actions since morning near Vodyane Druhe, Malynivka, Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Udachne, Uspenivka, Novooleksandrivka, Nadiivka, Troyitske, Andriivka, and towards Romanivka, Stara Mykolaivka, Myrolyubivka, Novomykolaivka. 9 clashes ongoing. RU airstrikes reported near Pokrovsk, Udachne, Novomykolaivka, Novopavlivka.
    • RU Claimed Elimination of UA Personnel: RU sources claim killing of UA soldier Maryana Savelieva (callsign "Vidma" / "Witch") near Pokrovsk. (Requires verification, potential IO).
    • RU Strikes: RU sources claim UMPB glide bomb strikes near Oleksiivka (Dva Mayora).
    • UA Drone Activity: UA 72nd Mech Bde drone unit ("BULAVA") destroyed RU soldier hiding in well (Butusov Plus - video). UA "Flying Skull" unit previously claimed destruction of RU personnel/building.
    • POW Testimony (RU - Highlighting Issues): Captured RU soldier Sergey Yashin (33rd MR Regt) testified to forced mobilization despite health issues, high casualties, poor conditions, surrender. Indicates low morale/personnel issues.
  • Novopavlivsk Axis (South Donetsk / Kurakhove):
    • UA GSFU (16:00 UTC): 12 Russian attacks near Kostiantynopil, Pryvilne, Novosilka, and towards Oleksiivka & Odradne. 1 clash ongoing.
    • RU Claimed Capture of Preobrazhenka (Confirmed by RU MoD): RU MoD released video/report claiming 90th Guards Tank Division (Tsentr Group) captured Preobrazhenka (Donetsk Oblast, Krasnoarmeysk/Pokrovsk direction). Claimed seizure of supply line, destruction of UA armor (incl. MaxxPro). Reported use of small group infiltration across open terrain, sound signals instead of radios for final assault command. Objective stated as advance towards Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) transport hub. (DeepState previously mapped RU advance near Preobrazhenka).
    • RU Claimed Advances (Vostok Group - Shakhtarsk Direction): RU sources (Voin DV) claim advances near Bohatyr (repelled 2 UA counterattacks, claim control over 0.5x1.5km & 1x0.8km areas, 10 UA KIA) and Otradnoye (claim control over 0.5x2km area, 20 UA KIA). Claim destruction of UA Paladin, 2S1, M777, D-30.
  • Toretsk Axis:
    • UA GSFU (16:00 UTC): 9 Russian attacks near Dachne, Druzhba, Shcherbynivka, Toretsk. 3 clashes ongoing.
    • RU MoD Confirmed Capture of Sukha Balka (Donetsk Oblast) by "Yug" Group (Previous report). RU sources claim this facilitates approach to H-20 highway.
    • RU Map Claims (Previous): Claimed advance in Sukha Balka area and near Dylyivka.
  • Lyman Axis:
    • UA GSFU (16:00 UTC): 4 clashes near Novomykhailivka and towards Olhivka & Novoserhiivka. 1 clash ongoing.
    • RU Claim: RU forces advanced >400m along Siverskyi Donets River towards Hryhorivka (Slivochniy Kapriz - morning report). (Requires verification).
    • UA Claimed Elimination of RU Personnel: UA 63rd Mech Bde claimed elimination of 3 RU personnel ("caravanmen" - alleged penal troops/convicts used for manual supply transport) via drone strike (Butusov Plus - video).
  • Siversk Axis:
    • UA GSFU (16:00 UTC): Repelled 3 Russian attacks near Hryhorivka and Verkhnokamyanske.
  • Kramatorsk Axis:
    • UA GSFU (16:00 UTC): Repelled 3 Russian attacks near Stupochky and Bila Hora.
    • RU Claim: Drone operators (200th OMSBR) destroyed UA mortar position near Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka (Colonelcassad - morning report).
  • Zaporizhzhia Front (Orikhiv / Huliaipole):
    • Huliaipole Direction: UA GSFU (16:00 UTC) repelled 2 Russian attacks towards Novopil. RU airstrikes hit Huliaipole, Novopil.
    • Orikhiv Direction: UA GSFU (16:00 UTC) reported 4 Russian offensive actions near Mali Shcherbaky, Stepove, Piatykhatky. RU airstrikes hit Kamyanske, Stepnohirsk, Zaporizhzhia City.
    • RU Claimed Advance (Polozhsk Direction): RU source (Voin DV) claims advance West of Dorozhnyanka (control over 0.5x1km area, >10 UA KIA).
    • Major UA Success (Pre-Easter - Confirmed): UA GSFU previously confirmed repulsion of large RU mechanized assault (~40 armored vehicles, >300 personnel) near Robotyne. Claimed 29 RU armored vehicles destroyed, ~140 RU KIA/WIA.
  • Kupyansk Axis:
    • UA GSFU (16:00 UTC): Repelled 2 Russian attacks near Zahryzove and Nova Kruhliakivka.
    • UA NGU "Kara-Dag" previously reported capturing RU infantry group (video circulated Apr 22).
  • Kharkiv Direction (Border Area):
    • UA GSFU (16:00 UTC): Repelled 3 Russian attacks near Vovchansk.
    • RU previously claimed active assaults resumed near Lyptsi and Vovchansk.
  • Prydniprovskyi Axis (Kherson):
    • UA GSFU (16:00 UTC): No RU ground offensive actions reported. RU airstrike (NAR rockets) hit Ivanivka area.
    • Russian Claims (Previous): Increased UA strikes post-ceasefire. Claim RU FAB-500 strikes hit TCC building in Kherson City. Acknowledge difficult RU logistics (Hola Prystan/Oleshky) due to UA drones/mining. Claim intercepting UA landing attempts near Antonivsky bridge. Note UA "Baba Yaga" activity. Claim RU drone superiority impacting UA supply/evac.
    • POW Testimony (RU - Highlighting Issues): Captured RU soldier Alexey Kukushkin (144th MRB, captured Apr 12) testified to deception about combat role, minimal training, high losses (12/13 KIA on first mission), poor supplies, low morale, desire to kill commander. Indicates severe issues on this axis.

III. Cross-Border Engagements (Kursk/Belgorod/Sumy/Bryansk)

  • Kursk Oblast Border Zone:
    • UA GSFU (16:00 UTC): 12 combat clashes recorded so far today. RU conducted 6 airstrikes (17 KABs) and 192 artillery shelling incidents (2 MLRS).
    • RU Claim (Hornal Monastery Area - Reinforced): RU MoD (Apr 22) claims "Sever" Group engaged four UA brigades near Hornal Monastery (Sudzhansky district). Claim inflicting >160 UA personnel losses, destroying tank, AFV, 10 vehicles, SPG, 3 arty, mortar, Osa-AKM AD, EW, 6 UAV C2 points. Claim 4 UA soldiers surrendered. Video previously circulated. RU claims fighting lasted 10+ days, alleges UA used monastery as strongpoint. RU sources (TASS, morning) claim retreating UA forces destroyed historical buildings in the complex and UA lost >200 personnel. (Requires verification).
    • UA Deep Strike Claim (Apr 11): Successful drone strike damaged S-400 complex near Sorokin confirmed by UA sources.
  • Belgorod Oblast Border Zone:
    • Civilian Casualty Confirmed: RU confirms 1 civilian truck driver killed by alleged UA drone strike near Serhiivka (Krasnoyaruzhsky district) while violating travel restrictions.
    • RU Call for Documentation: SF Chair Matviyenko urged Gov. Gladkov to systematically document all alleged UA attacks on civilian targets.
  • Sumy Oblast Border Zone:
    • RU Attacks (UA GSFU): RU conducted artillery shelling from RF territory (Sosnivka, Chernatske, Prokhody, Petrushivka, Bratenytsia, Kucherivka, Velyka Pysarivka, Myropilske, Yastrubshchyna, Esman, Bila Bereza). RU launched KAB strikes on Boyaro-Lezhachi, Petrushivka, Uhroidy, Myropilske, Prokhody.
    • RU Claims (Previous): Claimed strikes near Popovka, Prokhody, Okop (up to 40 UA KIA), and multiple other settlements. RVvoenkory claimed ongoing fighting near Popovka (video of 34th Bde strike).
    • KAB Threat (Ongoing): UA AF issued new alert for KABs towards Sumy city/district (13:44 UTC).
  • Bryansk Oblast Border Zone (NEW):
    • RU Claim: RU sources (Dva Mayora) report alleged UA "Baba Yaga" drone attacks burning civilian homes in Klimovo, Kirillovka, Rakovka. Claim Khoromnoye village "burned to the ground". Note lack of official information causing local negativity. (Requires verification).

IV. Capabilities, Logistics & Personnel

  • Ukrainian Capabilities & Strategy:
    • Intelligence: Confirmed agreement for Japanese SAR satellite intelligence. Potential RU offensive towards Dnipropetrovsk identified. Counter-intelligence detained alleged RU informant in Mykolaiv (Apr 22 morning report).
    • Drone Operations: Active FPV/recon use. Claimed successful deep strike on S-400 (Kursk, Apr 11). Claimed deep strike on GRAU arsenal (Vladimir Oblast, Apr 22). UA 72nd Mech Bde, 63rd Mech Bde, Flying Skull units active FPV strikes reported.
    • Air Defence: Active against RU drones (e.g., Kyiv Oblast engagement reported morning Apr 22). Facing challenges with alleged new RU drone tactics (Kharkiv, Odesa).
    • Training/Morale: UA DShV highlights training/discipline of 132nd Recon Bn. Formal establishment of national resistance training centers network ongoing.
    • Personnel: 277 UA servicemen returned from RU captivity in exchange (Apr 20).
    • Anti-Corruption/Legal: OGP charges 14 ROC Metropolitans for aiding occupation. SBU investigates Kyiv bridge embezzlement. Deputy Kyiv Mayor Prokopyiv under house arrest until Jun 20 (draft evasion scheme).
  • Russian Capabilities & Logistics:
    • Drone Technology: Claims of updated/daytime Geran drones with high-speed dive tactic (Kharkiv). Claims of new Shahed swarm tactics (Odesa). Claimed successful combined Lancet/Iskander strike on HIMARS using ZALA Z-16 recon UAV. Claim upgraded Lancets/ZALA Z-16 deployed. Claim destruction of UA Starlink terminal (69th Bde). Active use of FPVs ("Baba Yaga" on Bryansk border claimed).
    • Maritime Drones (NEW Development): Russia establishes Technical Council for Maritime Unmanned Systems, chaired by Navy CINC Adm. Moiseev, aiming to develop capabilities. Acknowledges UA/UK success. Exhibition showcased RU developers (WarGonzo).
    • Counter-UAV: RU sources share video of soldier allegedly shooting down UA FPV drone with rifle.
    • Targeting: Continued heavy use of KABs against civilian areas (Zaporizhzhia, Kupyansk, Sumy). Ongoing Shahed strikes (Kharkiv - daytime; Odesa - alleged new tactics). Claimed targeting of UA UAV production, bases, EW, logistics, TCC building (Kherson), HIMARS (Kramatorsk area), Starlink terminal, alleged specific facilities in Kharkiv.
    • Logistics: Needs persist (fundraising for 7th VDV on Zaporizhzhia front). Volunteer groups ("Moscow-Donbass") delivering supplies to Pokrovsk axis units. Potential Disruption: Explosion at 51st GRAU arsenal (Vladimir Oblast) could impact ammunition supply. Previous disruption reported on Don River shipping channel (Apr 20).
    • Personnel Issues (Significant Evidence): POW testimony (Yashin, Pokrovsk axis; Kukushkin, Kherson axis) indicates forced deployment of unfit/deceived personnel, extremely high casualties, poor supplies/planning, low morale, desire to harm commanders. UA 63rd Bde claims targeting RU personnel used for manual logistics transport ("caravanmen") on Lyman axis. Previous report of appeal from missing soldiers' relatives (26th Tank Rgt).
    • Tactics: Reported use of sound signals instead of radios during Preobrazhenka assault (RU MoD).
  • Casualties (New/Updated):
    • UA Civilian (Zaporizhzhia KAB): 1 KIA (F), 26 WIA (incl. 4 children). 12 remain hospitalized (4 critical, 4 children).
    • UA Civilian (Kharkiv UAV): 9 WIA (1 critical).
    • UA Civilian (Kharkiv Oblast - Previous): 1 KIA (FPV strike, Ivashky), 3 WIA (airstrike Horokhovatka; shelling Kupyansk).
    • RU Civilian (Belgorod Drone - Previous): 1 KIA (Truck driver).
    • RU Military: UA 72nd Bde claims RU KIA (drone strike). UA 63rd Bde claims 3 RU KIA ("caravanmen"). POW testimony indicates high RU losses (Pokrovsk, Kherson).
    • UA Military (RU Claims): Claim killing UA soldier Maryana Savelieva ("Vidma") near Pokrovsk. Claim >160 UA KIA near Hornal (Kursk border). Claim 4 UA POWs near Hornal. RU MoD/Voin DV claim ~30+ UA KIA in Shakhtarsk/Polozhsk direction advances. Basurin repeats claim of >780 UA KIA in 24h post-ceasefire.

V. Political & Information Operations

  • Ceasefire Narratives & Violations (Previous Focus):
    • Confirmed RU Violation: UA source (DeepState) provided video evidence of Russian attacks near Robotyne during the declared ceasefire.
    • French Assessment: French FM called RU ceasefire a "marketing operation" for Trump, noting UA reported only reduced intensity (Tsaplienko).
    • Ukrainian Stance (Zelenskyy - Apr 22): Condemned RU strikes on Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Odesa etc. as "conscious Russian terror." Stated Easter period proved RU can halt attacks if ordered. Reiterated Ukraine's offer for extended/full ceasefire remains valid, contingent on "serious readiness" from Russia for talks.
    • Russian Stance (Peskov - Previous): No rigid timelines. Open to talks but Kyiv hasn't removed alleged "self-ban". No response to proposal on avoiding civilian infrastructure strikes. Kremlin unaware of Trump peace plan details (TASS - Apr 22).
    • Peace Talks / Negotiations: Reports of allied discussions in London (Apr 23) regarding US ceasefire plan (RBC-Ukraina). RU source (Dnevnik Desantnika) amplified NY Post report claiming alleged Trump admin source stated Ukraine ready to cede 20% territory "de facto" in potential deal. (Likely reflects desired RU narrative).
  • Russian Narratives: Promoting capture of Sukha Balka, Preobrazhenka, Hornal Monastery area. Disseminating high claimed UA losses. Highlighting new drone tactics (Kharkiv, Odesa), Lancet/Iskander effectiveness (HIMARS claim). Highlighting maritime drone development efforts. Framing alleged UA attacks on Belgorod/Bryansk (Matviyenko call for documentation, Dva Mayora report). Publicizing civilian casualty in Belgorod. Releasing propaganda video urging UA soldiers to surrender. Framing elimination of alleged UA soldier "Vidma". Discussing replacing Central Asian migrants with North Korean labor (Rybar). Commentary on internal border interpretations (Kotsnews).
  • Ukrainian Narratives: Highlighting RU attacks on civilians (Zaporizhzhia, Kupyansk, Kharkiv casualties/damage - Zelenskyy statement, photos/videos). Publicizing defensive successes. Showcasing evidence of RU ceasefire violations. Promoting technological advancements (Drones, Intel - Japanese SAR, Deep Strike on Vladimir Oblast arsenal). Publicizing POW testimony showing RU issues (Yashin, Kukushkin). Highlighting potential major RU offensive plans (Dnipropetrovsk). Reporting establishment of national resistance training. Reporting legal action against collaborating clergy (SBU vs ROC) and internal corruption (Kyiv bridge, Prokopyiv house arrest). Claiming successful S-400 strike (Kursk). Highlighting RU personnel issues through targeted strikes (63rd Bde vs "caravanmen").
  • Information Environment / Censorship:
    • RU sources report Telegram shadow-banning of pro-RU military channels, allegedly under pressure (France mentioned re: Africa content). Frame as Telegram becoming controlled.
Previous (2025-04-22 13:25:07Z)

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