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Historical Intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing

Report Time
2025-04-22 05:42:33Z
10 months ago
Previous (2025-04-22 05:12:35Z)

Military Situation Update: Ukraine

As of Tue Apr 22 05:41:23 2025 (Incorporating intelligence up to approx. 05:40 UTC, including UA GSh 08:00 Report & subsequent updates)


I. Strategic & Air Warfare Overview

  • Overall Combat Intensity (UA GSh, Past 24h): High intensity maintained. 165 combat clashes recorded across the front.
  • Russian Strikes (UA GSh, Past 24h): Significant aerial and artillery bombardment continues.
    • Missile: 1 strike (using 3 missiles).
    • Aviation: 137 strikes, dropping 253 Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs).
      • Locations Hit (UA GSh): Sumy Oblast (Maryine, Krasnopillia, Vysoke, Mala Rybytsia, Myropilske, Prokhody, Studenok, Uhroidy), Donetsk Oblast (Oleksandropil, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Muravka, Novodarivka, Dachne), Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Malynivka, Zaliznychne, Shcherbaky, Novoyakovlivka, Stepnohirsk).
      • Additional KAB Strikes (Syniehubov - Kharkiv Oblast): Horokhovatka (multiple strikes, civilian injured, homes damaged/burned), Petropavlivka (civilians killed, house damaged).
    • Drones: 2,651 kamikaze drones employed (GSh). SDF South reports over 600 kamikaze drone strikes and 330 UAV drops (>500 munitions) in their operational zone alone.
    • Artillery/MLRS: 5,832 shelling incidents (122 involving MLRS) (GSh). SDF South reports ~25% increase in RU arty/drone use post-ceasefire, with 416 shelling incidents (~2000 munitions) in their zone yesterday.
  • Overnight & Recent Air/Missile Activity:
    • Ukrainian Successes:
      • UA Navy/GSh confirmed destruction of 3 Shahed-type UAVs overnight.
      • Air Command "East" (PvK Skhid) confirmed destruction of 2 Russian UAVs over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast overnight (Lysak/Vilkul).
      • NEW (SDF South): Claim destruction of 27 Shahed-136 UAVs by their air defense units (Past 24h). (Note: Discrepancy with GSh/Navy figure of 3).
    • Russian Shahed Attack (Odesa - Night Apr 21/22):
      • UA Reports (Confirmed): Damage to civilian infrastructure, residential buildings (multiple apartments), educational institution, vehicles confirmed. Fires extinguished. 3 civilians confirmed injured (DSNS, Sternenko, Tsaplienko, RBC-Ukraina). Update: Over 90 windows blown out in 3 schools; two schools shifting to remote learning (Odesa Mayor via RBC-Ukraina). Attack targeted a densely populated residential area.
      • Russian Claim (Rybar/Dva Mayora): Massive strike (up to 30 "Geran"/Shahed) targeting industrial zone ("Shtorm" NII) allegedly used for AFU electronics/equipment. (Discrepancy in drone numbers and targeting claims noted).
    • Russian Air Defense Claims (Over Russia/Crimea - MoD RU via Dnevnik Desantnika): Claim 10 Ukrainian UAVs destroyed between 20:00 Apr 21 and 06:00 Apr 22 Moscow Time. Breakdown: 5 UAVs over Crimea, 3 UAVs over Belgorod Oblast, 2 UAVs over Oryol Oblast. RU sources also claim interception of Neptune missiles targeting Crimea overnight. (Colonelcassad notes potential UA accumulation of drones for future mass attack).
    • Russian Drone Attacks (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast - Ongoing):
      • Nikopol District (Nikopol, Marhanets community): Ongoing RU kamikaze drone attacks and artillery. Damage confirmed: Administrative building, 7 private houses, farm, outbuildings, playground, gas/power lines. 2 civilians wounded (66M, 63F) from shelling. 1 civilian (62F) severely injured by RU mine in Nikopol city (Lysak/Vilkul).
      • Synelnykove District (Mezhivska community): RU drone strike reported. Car fire; damage to private house, outbuilding (Lysak/RBC-Ukraina).
    • Russian Drone/Shelling Attacks (Kharkiv Oblast - Past 24h - Syniehubov): Widespread attacks targeting civilians and infrastructure.
      • Kupyansk City: Drone drop damaged gas pipe, 58F injured.
      • Ivashky (Bohodukhiv Dist): FPV drone strike killed 24M civilian on scooter.
      • Klynove Novosilivka (Bohodukhiv Dist): FPV drone damaged 2 private houses, outbuildings, power lines.
      • Petropavlivka (Kupyansk Dist): KAB strike killed 54F and 26M civilians, damaged house.
      • Morozova Dolyna (Bohodukhiv Dist): FPV drone hit transformer, causing power outages in 3 villages.
      • Rubizhne (Chuhuiv Dist): Shelling caused fires destroying 7 private houses, 15 outbuildings, grass fire.
      • Staryi Saltiv area (Chuhuiv Dist): Munition hit excavator in forest strip.
      • Decoy UAV found near Starovirivka.
    • NEW (UA Air Force Threat Warning): Ongoing threat of Russian strike UAVs reported for Sumy, Kharkiv, Chernihiv, Poltava Oblasts (as of ~05:40 UTC).
  • Ukrainian Strikes (UA GSh, Past 24h): Air Force, Missile Troops, and Artillery successfully struck:
    • 10 RU Concentration Areas (Personnel, Weapons, Military Equipment).
    • 2 RU Command Posts.
    • 6 RU Artillery Systems.
  • Ukrainian Strikes (SDF South, Past 24h): Claimed strikes resulting in destruction of:
    • 54 RU Shelters.
    • 2 RU Ammo Depots.
    • 1 RU Fuel Storage Point.
    • 1 RU Observation Post, 1 RU Strongpoint.
  • Russian Drone Operations & Counter-UAV:
    • RU FPV/recon drone operations continue near front lines (Arkhangel Spetsnaza visuals).
    • RU Claim (Kharkiv Direction): "VT-40" FPV drones allegedly destroyed 10 Ukrainian UAVs (Colonelcassad).
    • RU Claim (Kursk Border): Tula VDV units reportedly using fiber-optic guided drones (Dnevnik Desantnika).

II. Naval Activity

  • Black Sea (UA GSh / RBC-Ukraina): One Russian Kalibr missile carrier active (potential salvo up to 6 missiles). Missile threat remains.
  • Sea of Azov (UA GSh / RBC-Ukraina): No Russian warships detected.
  • Mediterranean Sea (UA GSh): Three Russian warships active, including two Kalibr missile carriers (total potential salvo up to 12 missiles).

III. Frontline Developments (Based on UA GSh 08:00 Report, ISW, Milbloggers, Regional Updates)

  • Overall: Extremely high combat intensity persists, particularly on the Pokrovsk axis. Russian forces maintain offensive pressure across multiple directions. Ukrainian forces conduct defensive operations and documented counter-attacks.
  • Kupyansk Axis (Luhansk/Kharkiv Oblasts):
    • UA GSh (Past 24h): 2 Russian attacks repelled near Petropavlivka and Zahryzove. Confirmed by Syniehubov.
    • ISW Assessment (Previous): Potential Ukrainian advance/control in NW Petropavlivka.
  • Lyman Axis (Donetsk/Luhansk Oblasts):
    • UA GSh (Past 24h): 25 Russian attacks repelled near Nove, Nadiia, Novomykhailivka, Hrekivka, Myrne, Kolodyazi, Torske and in the direction of Novyi Myr, Zelena Dolyna.
    • RU Claims (Rybar Analysis / Dva Mayora): Continued RU advances on southern flank, expanding control S towards Lyman and N towards Kharkiv border. Fierce fighting near Hrekivka. Claim full liberation of Katerynivka, ongoing battles for Nove and Novomykhailivka (claim UA reinforcements being destroyed by RU UAVs). Claim advance along Zherebets River, approaching Myrne (Dzerzhynske), pushing UA from Yampolivka, fighting on northern edge of Torske. Claim meeting engagements near Nadiia, claiming UA pushed out in April and RU flag raised. Claim accelerating tempo after taking key points near Katerynivka.
    • ISW Assessment (Previous): Confirmed RU advances SE of Yampolivka.
  • Siversk Axis (Donetsk Oblast):
    • UA GSh (Past 24h): 2 Russian attacks repelled near Verkhnokamyanske and Pereizne.
  • Kramatorsk Axis (Chasiv Yar / Bakhmut Area):
    • UA GSh (Past 24h): 4 clashes recorded near Vasyukivka, Chasiv Yar, Markove, and Stupochky.
    • Bakhmut Visuals: Recent video confirms extensive destruction, RU occupation symbols, and Victory Day preparations amidst ruins (Operatyvnyi ZSU).
  • Toretsk Axis (Donetsk Oblast):
    • UA GSh (Past 24h): 23 Russian attacks conducted near Toretsk, Dyliivka, and Shcherbynivka.
    • RU Claim (Rybar): RU attacking near Dachne.
    • ISW Assessment (Previous): Confirmed RU advances near Dachne and SW outskirts of Toretsk.
  • Pokrovsk Axis (Donetsk Oblast): HIGHEST INTENSITY
    • UA GSh (Past 24h): Ukrainian defenders stopped 61 Russian assault and offensive actions near Sukha Balka, Myrolyubivka, Yelyzavetivka, Sukhyi Yar, Vodyane Druhe, Kotlyne, Uspenivka, Novooleksandrivka, Nadiivka, Troitske, Tarasivka, Promin, Lysivka, Udachne, Preobrazhenka, Kotlyarivka, Andriivka and in the direction of Oleksandropil, Novopavlivka, Berezivka.
    • RU Claim (Rybar): Renewed offensive S of Pokrovsk towards Dnipropetrovsk border near Kotlyarivka and S of Serebryane (likely Serebryanka/Sribne). Fighting reported near Tarasivka.
  • Novopavlivsk Axis (South Donetsk):
    • UA GSh (Past 24h): 19 Russian attacks on Ukrainian positions near Kostyantynopil, Vilne Pole, Pryvilne, Novosilka, Rozlyv and towards Odradne.
    • SDF South (Past 24h): Repelled 14 RU attacks in similar areas (Kostyantynopil, Vilne Pole, Pryvilne, Novosilka, Rozlyv). RU air strikes hit Novodarivka and Dachne.
    • RU Claim (Rybar): Repelled UA counter-attack E of Bohatyr (10 personnel, 1x M-113), destroying M-113, vehicle, killing/wounding personnel with FPV/mines.
    • RU Claim/Video (Voin DV): 200th Brigade (29th CAA) artillery destroyed UA PVD in Bohatyr.
  • Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia):
    • UA GSh (Past 24h): Ukrainian defenders repelled 3 Russian assaults towards Stepove and Novodanylivka.
    • SDF South (Past 24h): Repelled 1 RU attack near Stepove. RU air strikes hit Shcherbaky, Novoyakovlivka, and Stepnohirsk.
    • RU Claim (Rybar): Positional battles near Mala Tokmachka (claim RU hold SE part/brick factory). Situation static near Shcherbaky, Maly Shcherbaky, Stepove, Lobkove. Claim increased UA drone activity (newly arrived national battalions).
  • Huliaipole Axis (Zaporizhzhia):
    • UA GSh (Past 24h): No active RU offensive actions recorded.
    • SDF South (Past 24h): RU aviation struck Malynivka and Zaliznychne with unguided rockets (NAR).
  • Prydniprovskyi Axis (Kherson):
    • UA GSh / SDF South (Past 24h): 2 Russian offensive actions conducted, unsuccessful.
  • Kharkiv Axis:
    • UA GSh (Past 24h): No active RU offensive actions recorded.
    • RU Claim (Marochko via TASS): RU forces resumed active fighting for Liptsy and Vovchansk after the ceasefire period.

IV. Cross-Border Engagements (Kursk/Sumy Oblasts)

  • Kursk Direction (UA GSh, Past 24h):
    • 21 combat clashes recorded.
    • Russian forces conducted 27 air strikes, dropped 45 KABs, and carried out 336 artillery shellings (including 8 MLRS strikes).
  • Sumy Oblast (UA GSh): Russian air strikes targeted multiple border settlements (see Section I).
  • Belgorod Oblast: RU MoD claims interception of 3 UA UAVs overnight. RU sources report damage/injury from UA FPV drone near Tomarovka and UAV drops in Dolgoye (Valuysky district). Continued reports of shelling/strikes on border settlements (Nikolskoye, Leonovka, Kazinka, Kukuyevka, Dvuluchnoye, Barilov).
  • RU Claim (Rybar - Kursk): RU forces advanced near Nikolsky Monastery and Hornal. NEW (TASS): RU forces claim liberation of Hornal Monastery area.
  • RU Claim (Rybar - Belgorod): Repelled 4 UA infiltration attempts near Demidovka/Popovka (Krasnoyaruzhsky dist). Repelled UA infiltration attempt near Goptarovka (Kursk Obl border) - group destroyed by drone drops.
  • RU Claim (Previous - Kursk): Tula VDV using fiber-optic drones.

V. Logistics, Capabilities & Losses

  • Ukrainian Capabilities & Successes:
    • Air Defense: Confirmed destruction of 3 Shahed UAVs (Navy/GSh) and 2 RU UAVs over Dnipropetrovsk (PvK East) overnight. SDF South claims 27 Shaheds downed (Past 24h).
    • Ground Forces: Successfully repelled numerous attacks across multiple axes, notably stopping 61 RU assaults on the Pokrovsk axis and 25 on the Lyman axis (Past 24h, GSh). Successfully repelled 14 RU attacks on Novopavlivsk axis and 1 RU attack on Orikhiv axis (SDF South).
    • Strikes: Hit 10 RU concentration areas, 2 CPs, 6 Arty Systems (Past 24h, GSh). SDF South claims destruction of 54 RU Shelters, 2 Ammo Depots, 1 Fuel Storage, 1 OP, 1 SP.
    • Arms Supply: NEW (Le Monde via Tsaplienko): 90% of CAESAR SPH barrels produced by KNDS are supplied to Ukraine, indicating significant ongoing artillery support.
  • Ukrainian Losses:
    • Civilian Casualties (Past 24h):
      • Odesa: 3 injured (Shahed attack).
      • Kharkiv Oblast: 2 killed (54F, 26M in Petropavlivka - KAB), 1 killed (24M in Ivashky - FPV), 2 injured (48F in Horokhovatka - KAB; 58F in Kupyansk - drone drop).
      • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: 2 wounded (66M, 63F in Nikopol - shelling), 1 severely injured (62F in Nikopol - mine).
      • DNR (RU Claim): 1 civilian killed, 1 injured in Horlivka (alleged UA UAV/mine).
    • Infrastructure Damage (Past 24h): Extensive damage to homes, power lines, gas pipes, outbuildings, vehicles in Odesa, Nikopol district, and multiple locations in Kharkiv Oblast (see Section I).
    • Military Equipment: RU claim destruction of 1x M-113, 1x car near Bohatyr (Rybar). RU claim destruction of 10 UA UAVs via FPV (Colonelcassad). RU claim destruction of 1x Leleka-100 UAV near Chasiv Yar (Previous). RU claim destruction of 1x Kozak MRAP (hit mine, then burned) (Arkhangel Spetsnaza).
  • Russian Losses (Claimed by UA GSh, Past 24h):
    • Personnel: 1130 KIA/WIA. (Note: GSh adjusted cumulative totals for personnel, AFVs, Arty, MLRS based on updated intelligence).
    • Tanks: 4
    • Armored Fighting Vehicles (AFVs): 19
    • Artillery Systems: 26
    • Anti-Aircraft Systems: 1
    • UAVs (Operational-Tactical): 118
    • Vehicles & Fuel Tanks: 134
    • Special Equipment: 0
  • Russian Losses (Claimed by SDF South, Past 24h):
    • Personnel: 113
    • Artillery Systems: 9
    • Anti-Aircraft Systems: 1
    • Vehicles & Armored Tech: 40
    • Recon UAVs: 8
    • EW Stations: 3
    • Boats: 2
    • Light Vehicles: 2 Buggies, 20 Motorcycles, 2 Quad bikes
    • Other Equipment: 13 UAV antennas, 1 Starlink antenna, 10 generators
    • Destroyed Facilities: 54 Shelters, 2 Ammo Depots, 1 Fuel Storage, 1 OP, 1 SP
  • Russian Capabilities & Issues:
    • High Volume Strikes: Continued heavy use of KABs (253 past 24h), Kamikaze Drones (2651 past 24h), Artillery (5832 shellings past 24h) reported by UA GSh. SDF South confirms ~25% increase in RU arty/drone use post-ceasefire and high volume of UAV strikes (>600 kamikaze, 330 drops past 24h).
    • Targeting: Mass drone strike on Odesa (targeting claims differ). Widespread strikes on civilian areas/infrastructure in Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. Claimed destruction of UA ammo depot & pickup ("South" Group - TASS).
    • Logistics Needs: Ongoing fundraising appeal for RU 106th VDV (Kursk) and Unit 31135 (Kupyansk) for items like Starlink, drone detectors, power stations, batteries, tools, basic supplies (Colonelcassad).
  • Volyn/Polissia Directions: No signs of Russian offensive group formation detected (UA GSh).

VI. Political & Information Operations Context

  • Potential Peace Plan / Negotiations Speculation (NYP/WSJ/Fighterbomber/RVvoenkor): Persistent reports and speculation (originating from US/RU sources) about potential peace deal terms being discussed or proposed:
    • US recognition of Crimea as Russian.
    • Ukraine concedes ~20% territory "de-facto" (not officially recognized).
    • Ukraine agrees not to join NATO.
    • Deployment of "third force" peacekeepers (NATO & non-NATO members) post-ceasefire.
    • Ceasefire monitoring commission (RU/UA/non-NATO 3rd party).
    • Trump Statement: Fmr. President Trump asked about potential US demand for Ukraine to recognize Crimea as Russian, stated he would provide information within 3 days (Tsaplienko).
    • Note: These reports remain unconfirmed speculation from media/blogger sources.
  • Russian Information Operations:
    • Ceasefire Narratives: Continue accusing Ukraine of violations during RU-declared pause. RU official Miroshnik claimed >140 UA strikes on RU energy facilities since moratorium began (TASS).
    • Frontline Narratives: Disseminating claimed successes (e.g., Rybar's Lyman analysis, Hornal Monastery liberation claim, Bohatyr PVD strike video). Highlighting alleged UA losses/failed attacks.
    • Morale/Propaganda: Fundraising appeals (Colonelcassad). Propaganda videos featuring personnel (Colonelcassad - logistics NCO). Putin quotes emphasizing veterans as the country's "elite" (Dnevnik Desantnika).
  • Internal Russian Developments: Investigation into alleged fraud related to defense fortifications in Kursk continues (Previous TASS report).

Assessment incorporates data up to approximately Tue Apr 22 05:40 UTC, including the UA GSh 08:00 Kyiv report and subsequent updates from official sources and open-source channels. Information derived requires standard verification protocols, particularly for conflicting claims or those solely from one belligerent.

Previous (2025-04-22 05:12:35Z)

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