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Historical Intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing

Report Time
2025-04-22 04:42:25Z
10 months ago
Previous (2025-04-22 04:12:09Z)

Military Situation Update: Ukraine

As of Tue Apr 22 04:41:23 2025 (Incorporating intelligence up to approx. 04:40 UTC)


I. Strategic & Air Warfare Overview

  • Overnight Air/Missile Activity (Summary): Significant Russian UAV/missile activity reported overnight targeting multiple regions. Ukrainian air defense engaged targets.
    • Ukrainian Successes:
      • Ukrainian Navy forces confirmed the destruction of 3 Shahed-type UAVs overnight (RBC-Ukraina). General Staff ZSU confirms engagement.
      • NEW: Units of Air Command "East" (PvK Skhid) destroyed 2 Russian UAVs over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast overnight (Lysak/Vilkul).
    • Russian Shahed Attack (Odesa - Night Apr 21/22 Confirmed):
      • Confirmed UA Reports: Damage to civilian infrastructure, residential buildings, educational institution, vehicles. Fires extinguished. 3 civilians confirmed injured (DSNS via Operatyvnyi ZSU, Sternenko, approx. 04:03 UTC). Visual confirmation of damage and emergency response provided. NEW: Damage update: Over 90 windows blown out in 3 schools; two schools switching to remote learning today (RBC-Ukraina citing Odesa Mayor's office).
      • Russian Claim (Dva Mayora): Massive strike involving up to 30 "Geran" (Shahed) UAVs. Claims destruction of targets in the industrial zone of the "Shtorm" Research Institute, allegedly used for electronics production and equipment storage for AFU. (Note: Discrepancy in number of drones reported vs confirmed interceptions).
    • Russian Attacks (Crimea/Belgorod Oblast - RU Claim): Russian MoD claims interception of Ukrainian UAVs targeting Crimea and Belgorod Oblast overnight. Claims destruction of Ukrainian Neptune missiles over the sea targeting Crimea (coinciding with Crimean Bridge closure). (Dva Mayora)
    • Russian Air Defense Claims (Over Russia - UPDATED): Russian MoD claims 10 Ukrainian UAVs destroyed over Russian regions between 20:00 Apr 21 and 06:00 Apr 22 Moscow Time. NEW Breakdown: 5 UAVs over Crimea, 3 UAVs over Belgorod Oblast, 2 UAVs over Oryol Oblast (TASS, Dva Mayora, approx. 04:09, 04:22 UTC).
    • NEW Russian Drone Attacks (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast - Night/Ongoing):
      • Nikopol District (Nikopol, Marhanets community): Continued RU kamikaze drone attacks reported. Damage confirmed to an administrative building, 3 private houses, and a power line. (Lysak/Vilkul/RBC-Ukraina).
      • Synelnykove District (Mezhivska community): RU drone strike reported. A car caught fire; a private house and an outbuilding were damaged. (Lysak/RBC-Ukraina).
      • Casualties: No civilian casualties reported from these specific Dnipropetrovsk attacks (Lysak/Vilkul/RBC-Ukraina).
    • Other Russian Strikes (RU Claim): Explosions reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kyiv city, and Kyiv Oblast during the night (Dva Mayora).
  • Russian Air Activity (Historical / Recent):
    • Polohy Direction (Zaporizhzhia Oblast - Colonelcassad/Voin_DV): Previous visual confirmation (video) of Russian strike aviation (11th Air Force and Air Defense Army) conducting strikes against presumed Ukrainian positions.
    • Kharkiv & Donetsk Oblasts: Previous threat of aviation weapon systems employment.
    • Sumy Oblast: Previous reports of Russian tactical aviation launching guided aerial bombs (KABs).
  • Russian Drone Operations & Counter-UAV:
    • Visual intelligence from Russian sources confirms ongoing FPV/reconnaissance drone operations near the front lines (Arkhangel Spetsnaza).
    • NEW RU Claim (Kharkiv Direction): Russian "VT-40" FPV drones allegedly destroyed 10 Ukrainian UAVs (Colonelcassad, approx. 04:07 UTC).
    • NEW RU Claim (Kursk Border): Tula VDV units reportedly using fiber-optic guided drones against Ukrainian targets in border areas (Dnevnik Desantnika, approx. 04:03 UTC).

II. Naval Activity

  • Black Sea (UA General Staff, 06:00 UTC / RBC-Ukraina): One Russian Kalibr missile carrier detected, with a potential total salvo of up to 6 missiles. Missile threat persists.
  • Sea of Azov (UA General Staff / RBC-Ukraina): No enemy vessels detected.
  • Mediterranean Sea (UA General Staff): Three Russian warships active, including two Kalibr missile carriers with a potential total salvo of up to 12 missiles.
  • Kerch Strait Transit (UA General Staff): Over the past day, 4 Russian-interest vessels transited towards the Black Sea, continuing towards the Bosphorus Strait. 0 vessels transited towards the Sea of Azov. Russia continues disabling AIS (violating SOLAS).

III. Frontline Developments (Based on ISW Reporting Apr 22 & other sources incl. Dva Mayora, UA/RU Official Reports)

  • Overall: Russian forces maintain offensive pressure across multiple axes (Lyman, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, South Donetsk, Sumy/Kursk border). Ukrainian forces conduct defensive operations and counter-attacks. Visual intelligence (Colonelcassad) continues to show attritional warfare conditions. Intense Russian shelling and strikes reported, particularly in Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts.
  • Kupyansk Axis (Luhansk/Kharkiv Oblasts):
    • Potential Ukrainian Advance (ISW via RBC-Ukraina): Ukrainian forces may have recently advanced and potentially secured control over the northwestern part of Petropavlivka.
  • Lyman Axis (Donetsk/Luhansk Oblasts):
    • Russian Advances Confirmed (ISW via RBC-Ukraina): Russian forces achieved confirmed advances southeast of Yampolivka. Significant fighting reported near Kreminna.
  • Kramatorsk Axis (Chasiv Yar / Bakhmut Area):
    • NEW RU Claim: Units of the Russian 98th VDV Division (5th Guards SAM Regiment) claim to have shot down a Ukrainian Leleka-100 reconnaissance UAV near Chasiv Yar (Dnevnik Desantnika, approx. 04:03 UTC).
    • Ongoing Russian operations and demining efforts reported in the area.
    • NEW Bakhmut Visuals: Recent video confirms extensive destruction in occupied Bakhmut, with Russian forces displaying occupation symbols and preparing for Victory Day celebrations amidst ruins (Operatyvnyi ZSU).
  • Toretsk Axis (Donetsk Oblast):
    • Russian Advances Confirmed (ISW via RBC-Ukraina): Russian forces achieved confirmed advances near Dachne and in the southwestern outskirts of Toretsk.
    • Russian Claim (Dva Mayora): Russian assaults reported near Dachne.
  • Konstantinovka Direction (Potential Kramatorsk/Bakhmut Overlap):
    • Russian Claim (Dva Mayora): Claims Russian success developing in Sukha Balka and ongoing fighting near Tarasivka. (Note: Sukha Balka previously associated with Pokrovsk Axis, geographical verification needed).
  • Pokrovsk Axis (Donetsk Oblast):
    • Intense Fighting (ISW): Remains a high-intensity combat zone. Significant fighting reported around Kotlyne, Shevchenko, Hrodivka, Novohrodivka, and Novoyelyzavetivka.
    • Russian Claim (Dva Mayora): Renewed Russian offensive actions (infantry and equipment) south of Pokrovsk, advancing towards the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border, specifically near Kotlyarivka and south of Serebryane.
    • Confirmed Ukrainian Losses (Colonelcassad): Previous visual confirmation (video) of destroyed German Marder 1A3 IFV and Swedish Pbv 302 APC, reportedly by Russian FPV drones.
  • South Donetsk (Novopavlivsk Axis):
    • NEW Russian Claims (Advancement & Actions):
      • RU Claim (Vodolatsky via TASS): RU forces successfully developing offensive, liberating several settlements daily.
      • NEW RU Claim/Video (Voin DV): Artillerymen of the 200th Brigade (29th CAA) reportedly destroyed a Ukrainian Temporary Deployment Point (PVD) in Bohatyr.
      • Russian Claim (Dva Mayora - Previous):
        • Repelled a Ukrainian counter-attack east of Bohatyr involving 10 personnel on an M113 APC. Claimed M113 and 8 personnel destroyed by FPV drones.
        • Claimed hitting a Ukrainian reinforcement group near Bohatyr; vehicle destroyed by mine, up to 5 personnel casualties.
  • Zaporizhzhia Axis:
    • EXTREMELY HIGH INTENSITY RUSSIAN STRIKES (UA Zaporizhzhia OVA, approx. 04:10 UTC): Over the past 24 hours, Russian forces launched 552 strikes against 12 settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. This includes:
      • 11 Air Strikes: Targeting Novoyakovlivka, Stepnohirsk, Zaliznychne, Malynivka, Novodarivka.
      • 303 UAV Attacks (Various Types): Targeting Malokaterynivka, Kamyanske, Huliaipole, Shcherbaky, Novodanylivka, Mala Tokmachka, Charivne, Novodarivka.
      • 29 MLRS Attacks: Targeting Kamyanske, Shcherbaky, Novodanylivka, Charivne, Novodarivka.
      • 209 Artillery Strikes: Targeting Kamyanske, Huliaipole, Shcherbaky, Novodanylivka, Mala Tokmachka, Charivne, Novodarivka.
      • Damage Reported: 5 reports received concerning damage to houses, vehicles, and infrastructure. No civilian injuries reported in this specific OVA update.
    • Ground Situation: Significant fighting reported near Kamyanske, Stepove, Nesteryanka, Myrne, and Verbove (ISW). Map analysis suggests possible Ukrainian counteroffensive activity near Robotyne (ISW).
    • Russian Claim (Dva Mayora - Previous):
      • Positional battles ongoing near Mala Tokmachka, claim Russian forces secured positions in the southeastern part of the village and at a former brick factory.
      • Situation static near Shcherbaky, Mali Shcherbaky, Stepove, and Lobkove.
      • Allege Ukraine is deploying newly arrived National Battalion UAV units and utilizing artillery and cluster munitions.
    • Russian Air Support: Previous confirmed Russian air strikes in the Polohy direction (see Section I).
  • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Rear Areas & Adjacent to Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
    • NEW: Ongoing Russian kamikaze drone attacks targeting communities in Nikopol district (Nikopol, Marhanets) and Synelnykove district (Mezhivska community). Confirmed damage to civilian infrastructure (admin building, houses, power lines, car). (See Section I for details).
    • NEW: No shelling reported overnight in Kryvyi Rih district (Vilkul).
  • Kherson Axis:
    • Contested Area (ISW): Remains contested. Claimed Ukrainian counteroffensives and partisan activity reported in Russian-controlled areas. Proximity of fighting to ZNPP remains a concern.
    • Russian Counter-UAV Activity: Russian MoD previously reported units of the "Dnepr" group establishing observation posts specifically for destroying UAVs.

IV. Cross-Border Engagements (Kursk/Belgorod/Sumy Oblasts)

  • Active Combat Zone (ISW): Border areas remain active conflict zones.
  • Kursk Oblast:
    • Russian Claim (Hornal Encirclement): Russian forces attempting to surround Ukrainian forces in Hornal (TASS citing V. Vodolatsky).
    • Russian Claim (Advance): Russian forces advanced near Nikolsky Monastery and Hornal during heavy fighting (Dva Mayora).
    • Russian Claim (Hoptarivka): Claim destruction (via drone drops) of a Ukrainian assault group attempting infiltration near Hoptarivka (Kursk Oblast, direction unspecified but likely near Belgorod border). (Dva Mayora).
    • NEW RU Capability Claim: Tula VDV units reportedly using fiber-optic guided drones against Ukrainian targets in border areas (Dnevnik Desantnika).
  • Belgorod Oblast:
    • Russian Claim (Infiltration Attempts): Claimed repelling four Ukrainian assault group attempts near Demidovka and Popovka (Krasnoyaruzhsky district), attempting infiltration via forests near Miropilske (Sumy Oblast). (Dva Mayora).
    • Russian Claim (UAV/FPV Attacks):
      • UAV dropped two explosive devices on a private house in Dolgoe (Valuysky district), injuring a woman. (Dva Mayora).
      • Man injured by FPV drone strike on vehicle on Tomarovka — Krasnaya Yaruga highway. (Dva Mayora).
      • Shelling reported in Nikolske, Leonovka, Kazinka, Kukuyevka, Dvuluchnoye, Barilov. (Dva Mayora).
  • NEW RU Claim (Civilian Casualties): Russian sources (Miroshnik via TASS, approx. 04:04 UTC) claim 15 civilians killed and over 80 injured in Russian territory due to alleged Ukrainian strikes over the past week.

V. Logistics, Capabilities & Losses

  • Ukrainian Capabilities & Successes:
    • Counter-UAV: Confirmed destruction of 3 Shahed UAVs overnight by Ukrainian Navy forces/General Staff. NEW: Confirmed destruction of 2 RU UAVs over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by PvK East.
  • Ukrainian Losses:
    • Pokrovsk Axis: Previous confirmed destruction of 1x Marder 1A3 IFV and 1x Pbv 302 APC by Russian FPV drones (Colonelcassad).
    • NEW RU Claim (Kharkiv Direction): Claim destruction of 10 Ukrainian UAVs by RU FPV drones (Colonelcassad).
    • NEW RU Claim (Chasiv Yar): Claim destruction of 1x Leleka-100 UAV by RU air defense (Dnevnik Desantnika).
    • NEW RU Claim (South Donetsk): Claim destruction of 1x PVD in Bohatyr (Voin DV). Previous claims: 1x M113 APC + 8 personnel and 1x vehicle + 5 personnel near Bohatyr.
    • NEW RU Claim (Unspecified location, "South" Group): Claim destruction of 1x ammo depot and 1x pickup truck (TASS).
    • NEW RU Claim (Belgorod Border): Claim destruction of 1x assault group near Hoptarivka, damage to 1x civilian vehicle (FPV), damage to 1x house (UAV drop).
    • NEW Damage (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): Confirmed damage from RU drone strikes: Admin building, 3 private houses, power line (Nikopol district); Car, private house, outbuilding (Synelnykove district).
    • NEW Damage (Odesa): Confirmed damage from RU drone strikes: >90 windows in 3 schools, damage to residential buildings, vehicles.
  • Russian Capabilities & Issues:
    • UAV Development: Claimed use of fiber-optic guided drones by VDV units in Kursk border region (Dnevnik Desantnika). High volume use of strike and FPV drones continues.
    • UAV Operations: Continued kamikaze drone attacks confirmed targeting Nikopol and Synelnykove districts (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast). Night Shahed attack on Odesa.
    • Artillery: NEW: Claimed destruction of UA PVD in Bohatyr by 200th Brigade (29th CAA) artillery (Voin DV).
    • Targeting Claims: NEW: Claimed destruction of UA ammo depot and pickup truck ("South" Group, TASS). Claimed targeting of alleged AFU electronics production/storage facility ("Shtorm" NII) in Odesa (Dva Mayora).
    • Counter-UAV: Claimed destruction of 10 UA UAVs on Kharkiv direction using FPV drones (Colonelcassad). Previous reports of specialized observation posts (Kherson).
    • Air Defense (UPDATED): Claimed downing of UA Leleka-100 near Chasiv Yar (Dnevnik Desantnika). Claimed destruction of 10 UA UAVs over Russia overnight (MoD RU), specified as 5 Crimea, 3 Belgorod, 2 Oryol.
    • Internal Procurement Issues: Russian MoD suing domestic radio-electronic subsystem manufacturer for ~13 billion rubles, suggesting potential supply chain problems for critical components (TASS).
    • Visual Intelligence (Colonelcassad): Recent photos confirm ongoing use of camouflaged tanks, ATVs, assault detachment markings, evidence of vehicle destruction, trench warfare. Previous visuals showed damaged vehicle with anti-drone cage.
  • Russian Losses:
    • NEW: 2 UAVs confirmed downed over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by UA PvK East.
  • Russian Logistics Note (Primorye): Previous report of large warehouse fire (TASS). Impact unknown.
  • NEW Russian Claim (Civilian Casualties - Horlivka, DNR): Man killed by UXO detonation in Holmivskyi cemetery; man injured by alleged VFU kamikaze drone attack in Shakhty Rumyantseva cemetery. (Dva Mayora).

VI. Political & Information Operations Context

  • Russian Political Integration of Occupied Territories:
    • Electoral Districts: Russia's CEC plans new State Duma constituency scheme including seven districts in occupied Ukraine ("Donbas and Novorossiya") by late May (TASS sources).
  • Russian Information Operations:
    • Ceasefire Narratives: Accusing Kyiv of publishing "fakes" regarding Russian ceasefire violations (TASS/Marochko). Claim (Sheremet via TASS): Blaming Ukraine for ceasefire violations and asserting Kyiv will continue to undermine peace initiatives (approx. 03:43 UTC). NEW Claim (Miroshnik via TASS): Alleging Ukraine struck Russian energy facilities over 140 times since a moratorium began (attempting to frame Ukraine as aggressor against critical infrastructure).
    • Frontline Narratives: Continued dissemination of visual content depicting frontline conditions ("Моменты СВО", Colonelcassad), projecting operational activity and emphasizing ongoing "work" (Arkhangel Spetsnaza). NEW: Video evidence confirming RU occupation presence and IO activities (Victory Day prep) in heavily damaged Bakhmut (Operatyvnyi ZSU).
    • Morale Boosting / Unit Promotion: Use of imagery associated with VDV (Dnevnik Desantnika). Russian President Putin quoted praising the 76th VDV Division (Dnevnik Desantnika, approx. 04:03 UTC).
    • Labor/Migration Narrative (Operatsiya Z/Markov): Promoting North Korean labor as an alternative to Central Asian migrants.
  • US Political Context (RBC-Ukraina):
    • Previous polling data indicated shifts in US political landscape, monitored for potential long-term impact on support dynamics.

Assessment incorporates data up to approximately Tue Apr 22 04:40 UTC. Information derived from open sources, requiring standard verification protocols where applicable, particularly for conflicting claims or those solely from one belligerent.

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