As of Mon Apr 21 14:41:23 2025 (Incorporating intelligence up to approx. 14:40 UTC)
I. Strategic & Air Warfare Overview
Post-Ceasefire Operations:
Russian Resumption Confirmed (Putin, Apr 21): Combat operations officially resumed following the expiration of the unilaterally declared Russian ceasefire. Putin stated Russia observed reduced UA activity during the ceasefire but alleged over 5,000 Ukrainian attacks occurred. He framed Kyiv's initial reaction as a "game with fates," but claimed Kyiv was later "advised" (allegedly by foreign handlers) not to reject peace initiatives. (Reiterated by Kotsnews, Poddubny, Rybar).
RU MoD Claims (Kursk, Apr 21 via Colonelcassad): Reports resumption of offensive operations in Kursk Oblast post-ceasefire (from 00:00 Apr 21). Claims inflicting losses on UA forces: up to 50 personnel, 1 BMP, 2 APCs, 1 ACV, 2 vehicles, 3 artillery pieces. Claims extremely high cumulative UA losses in Kursk direction (Note: Cumulative figures are highly likely inflated propaganda).
RU MoD Claims (Overall, Apr 21): Reports resumption of offensive operations and strikes across multiple axes (Belgorod, Kupyansk, Donetsk [South, Center, East], Zaporizhzhia/Kherson). Claims widespread strikes targeting UA personnel, equipment, infrastructure, depots, and concentration areas. Claims Ka-52M strike on UA dugout (Group 'Center'). Claims downing 104 Ukrainian UAVs (Pre-13:12 UTC report). Animated map released (Colonelcassad, Apr 21) visualizes claimed RU strikes across Ukraine.
Putin Justification for Strikes (Apr 21): Stated Russia strikes civilian objects only if they are used by the Ukrainian military. Cited the Sumy congress center strike as "retribution" for alleged UA actions in Kursk, claiming the center was used for an award ceremony for involved personnel. Cited Odesa agricultural facility strike alleging UA/foreign missile development/testing there. Mentioned strikes on restaurants used for military meetings. Stated need to "clarify" or "discuss" (per Peskov) proposal not to strike civilian targets, potentially with Ukrainian side. (Statements reiterated widely by RU sources: TASS, RVvoenkor, Kotsnews, Poddubny, ASTRA, Rybar; Sternenko highlights violation of IHL).
Recent Ukrainian Strikes (New Confirmations/Reports):
Tetkino UAV Site (Kursk Oblast, Apr 19): Ukrainian General Staff confirms a successful Air Force strike on a Russian UAV launch and preparation facility near Tetkino. Claimed elimination of up to 20 RU UAV operators. (Reiteration confirmed by GSh ZSU via Shef Hayabusa).
Kharkiv Front (Confirmed): "Fenix" border unit drone strikes claim destruction of 1x RU Tank and 2x Msta-S SPGs (Tsaplienko, Apr 21; Operatyvnyi ZSU previously reported similar claim).
Chornobaivka Command Post (RU Claim): RU source (Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 21) claims a P-800 Onyx supersonic missile strike destroyed a UA Command Post in a hardened shelter near Chornobaivka (Kherson Oblast), allegedly eliminating at least 18 UA personnel (incl. commanders) and wounding ~16.
Ongoing Air Threats & Activity (as of 14:40 UTC):
Air Alerts (UA Air Force):
Threat of Russian tactical aviation using air-launched weapons active for North-Eastern oblasts (~13:19 UTC).
Warning of KAB launches towards Sumy Oblast (~13:25 UTC).
Warning of KAB launches towards Donetsk Oblast (~13:34 UTC).
Warning of KAB launches towards Eastern Kharkiv Oblast (~13:55 UTC).
NEW: Threat of ballistic missile use from North-Eastern direction (~14:22 UTC).
Russian Shelling/Air Strikes (GSh ZSU, 16:00 Apr 21): Heavy RU shelling reported against border communities in Chernihiv Oblast (Zarichchya, Tymonovychi, Khrinivka, Krasnyi Khutir) and Sumy Oblast (Myropilske, Zarutske, Sosnivka, Prokhody, Petrushivka, Studenok, Kucherivka, Malushyne, Bobylivka, Bila Bereza). RU aviation strikes (KABs/NARs) reported in Sumy Oblast (Maryine, Krasnopillya, Vysoke, Mala Rybytsia, Myropilske, Prokhody, Stepok).
Allied ISR Activity: Possible Swedish Saab 340 AEW&C (AWACS) aircraft activity reported over Lviv region (Tsaplienko, Apr 21). Functions include long-range target detection (up to 450km), AD guidance, air support, maritime control.
Baltic Sea Activity (Rybar Report, Apr 20): Notes UK report of RAF Typhoons (from Malbork, Poland) intercepting Russian aircraft over the Baltic Sea on Apr 15 (recon plane) and Apr 17 (unidentified from Kaliningrad). RU source frames NATO flights as provocative.
Previous Large-Scale Russian Air Attack (Overnight Apr 20-21):
Confirmed attack involved 1x Onyx, 2x Kh-31P, 96x Shahed/Imitator UAVs. UA Air Defense confirmed shootdown of 42 Shahed-type UAVs. 47 "Imitator Drones" reportedly failed/lost locally. Confirmed damage in Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Cherkasy Oblasts. 3 Civilians KIA, 3 WIA in Kherson Oblast (Apr 20).
II. Frontline Operations (GSh ZSU Update 16:00 Apr 21 & Other Sources)
Overall: High-intensity combat continues post-ceasefire expiration. Total 56 combat clashes reported across the front as of 16:00 Apr 21. Russian forces maintain offensive pressure, particularly on the Pokrovsk axis. Ukraine reports repelling numerous attacks and ongoing engagements.
Axis Updates (as of 16:00 Apr 21 unless stated otherwise):
Kharkiv Axis: No active RU ground assaults reported by GSh ZSU at 16:00. Confirmed: "Fenix" unit drone strikes destroyed 1x RU Tank and 2x Msta-S SPGs (Tsaplienko, ~14:08 UTC). OTU Kharkiv reports ongoing drone operator training ("Furia" unit, "Hart" Brigade) and infantry/medical training (113th TDF). RU KAB launch warning for E. Kharkiv Oblast (~13:55 UTC).
Kupyansk Axis: No active RU ground assaults reported by GSh ZSU at 16:00. Confirmed RU Claim: RU source (Kotsnews / Poddubny, Apr 21) video shows 27th Arty Regt drones destroying UA HMMWV.
Siversk Axis: No active RU ground assaults reported by GSh ZSU at 16:00.
Kramatorsk Axis:1 RU attack towards Markove repelled.
Toretsk Axis: RU forces attempting to penetrate UA defense near Toretsk, Dyliivka, Shcherbynivka. 5 RU attacks repelled, 2 ongoing. UA Claim/Video (DeepStateUA, Apr 21): 28th Mech Bde destroyed RU motorcycle group assault attempting to break through towards Dyliivka.
Pokrovsk Axis (Highest Intensity):22 RU attempts to dislodge UA forces near Sukha Balka, Myrolyubivka, Yelyzavetivka, Sukhyi Yar, Kotlyne, Uspenivka, Novooleksandrivka, Nadiivka, Troitske. 9 attacks repelled, 13 ongoing. RU KAB strikes reported on Oleksandropil, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Muravka.
PREVIOUS UA Claim (Apr 21, OSUV "Khortytsia" via Tsaplienko ~12:45 UTC): Representative V. Trehubov claims Russian forces are retreating from the western outskirts of Pokrovsk, stating RU attempts to cut the Pavlohrad highway (Feb/Mar onwards) failed. (Significant claim, requires verification and monitoring, contrasts with high RU assault intensity reported by GSh ZSU).
Novopavlivsk Axis (South Donetsk):11 RU attacks repelled near Kostyantynopil, Vilne Pole, Pryvilne, Novosilka, Rozlyv. 1 clash ongoing. RU Air strikes on Novodarivka, Dachne.
RU CLAIM (Voin DV, Apr 21): Claims UA conducted a night counter-attack east of Bohatyr using 10 personnel and an M-113. Claims RU forces (FPV drones, mines) repelled the attack, destroying the M-113, a supporting car, and up to 13 UA personnel (8 KIA, 5 WIA). Claims 110 UA ceasefire violations (shelling, drones) in South Donetsk AOR during ceasefire.
RU Claim (DNR Source, Apr 21): Video released claiming coordinated destruction of UA D-20, D-30, L119 artillery pieces near Ivanopillya by RU 8th CAA units using artillery and Lancet drones.
Huliaipole Axis: No ground clashes reported. RU NAR strikes on Malynivka, Zaliznychne.
Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia): UA forces repelling 1 ongoing RU attack near Stepove. RU Air strikes on Shcherbaky, Novoyakovlivka, Stepnohirsk.
RU Reports (Dva Mayora/Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 21): Note high UA FPV drone threat hindering RU drone operations (requiring use of tools like shovels to deploy/recover drones from dugouts). Fundraising appeal for RU VDV drones in the area.
UA Strikes (Confirmed): Video shows UA 40th Coastal Defense Brigade drone strikes targeting RU personnel attempting to establish positions on islands near Kherson (Tsaplienko, Apr 21). Video (Sternenko, Apr 21) shows 34th Coastal Defense Bde drone strikes on RU positions/vehicles (2x Z-marked vehicles, 1x UAZ Bukhanka) on Left Bank Kherson.
RU Strike Claim (Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 21): RU claim P-800 Onyx missile strike hit UA CP near Chornobaivka, causing significant casualties (18+ KIA, 16 WIA).
III. Border Engagements (Kursk/Belgorod/Bryansk/Sumy)
Kursk/Sumy Border Zone (CinC Syrskyi Statement, Apr 21 - Confirmed): Intensive combat operations ongoing near the state border on Ukrainian territory (Sumy Obl.) and Russian territory (Kursk Obl.). Russian forces attempting to push Ukrainian forces out of Kursk Oblast and seize border areas of Sumy Oblast. Ukrainian Defense Forces are actively disrupting these attempts, halting a RU breakthrough attempt into Sumy Oblast. (Statement confirmed/reiterated via Operatyvnyi ZSU, Tsaplienko, RBC-Ukraina).
Kursk Axis (Ukrainian Perspective - GSh ZSU 16:00 Apr 21): UA forces repelled 5 Russian attacks today. 2 clashes ongoing. Intense Russian activity: 16 air strikes (21 KABs dropped), over 130 artillery/MLRS strikes against UA positions and border settlements.
Ukrainian Strike (Confirmed): UA GSh confirms successful AFU strike on RU UAV facility near Tetkino (Kursk) on Apr 19, claimed up to 20 RU UAV operators eliminated. (Confirmed via GSh ZSU / Shef Hayabusa).
Russian MoD Claims (Kursk, Apr 21 via Colonelcassad): Claims resumption of operations post-ceasefire. Claims UA losses post-ceasefire: up to 50 personnel, 1 BMP, 2 APCs, 1 ACV, 2 vehicles, 3 artillery pieces. (Loss figures require verification).
RU Surrender Claim (Kotsnews / Rybar, Apr 21): Video/report claims 2 UA soldiers surrendered in Krasnopillya district (Sumy Obl.) after crossing border, allegedly contacting RU side via chatbot and being guided by RU drone. One reported wounded.
Belgorod Axis:
RU Claim/Video (RVvoenkor / Dva Mayora / Belarusian_Silovik): Video released showing RU drone strikes targeting alleged UA assault groups attempting advance near Popovka (Belgorod border). Footage claimed filmed near Maryino (Sumy Oblast).
Chernihiv & Sumy Oblasts (GSh ZSU 16:00 Apr 21): Heavy RU shelling reported against border communities (see Section I). RU aviation strikes (KABs/NARs) reported in Sumy Oblast (see Section I). KAB launch warning for Sumy Oblast (~13:25 UTC).
IV. Naval Activity
No significant changes reported since the previous update (Black Sea: 1 Kalibr carrier active; Azov: 0; Mediterranean: 2 Kalibr carriers active).
V. Logistics, Capabilities & Losses
Ukrainian:
Capabilities:
Drone Ops: Continued effective use demonstrated (Confirmed: "Fenix" unit destroyed Tank, 2x Msta-S on Kharkiv front; 40th & 34th Coastal Bde strikes near Kherson). Active drone operator training reported (OTY Kharkiv: "Furia" unit/Hart Bde). Public call via "eVorog" chatbot for citizen reporting on RU movements renewed.
PsyOps: 429th UAV Regt ("Achilles") reported using drones to drop surrender notes and guide surrendering RU soldiers (OTU Kharkiv).
Air Force Strike: Confirmed successful cross-border strike on RU UAV facility (Tetkino, Kursk, Apr 19).
Training: Ongoing sapper training (DShV 199th Training Center), infantry/medical training (113th TDF, OTY Kharkiv).
ISR: Potential allied AEW&C (AWACS) activity detected over Western Ukraine (Tsaplienko, Apr 21).
Losses/Challenges: RU source (Voin DV) claims UA M-113, car, and up to 13 personnel lost in failed counter-attack near Bohatyr (Novopavlivsk). RU source (Dnevnik Desantnika) claims 18+ personnel (incl. commanders) KIA, 16 WIA in Onyx strike on CP near Chornobaivka. RU claims destruction of UA HMMWV on Kupyansk front (Kotsnews video). RU claims 2 UA soldiers surrendered (Sumy border). Potential legislative changes may remove mobilization deferment for students starting education after age 25 (RU source claim).
Russian:
Losses/Damage: UA claims elimination of up to 20 UAV operators in Tetkino strike (Apr 19). UA claims destruction of Tank, 2x Msta-S SPGs (Kharkiv front, "Fenix" unit). RU VDV unit reports vehicle damaged by remote mine, requiring engine replacement ("Dnevnik Desantnika" / Dva Mayora, Apr 21). UA claims destruction of RU HMMWV (Kotsnews video evidence, likely UA strike).
Capabilities: RU MoD claims destruction of various UA equipment post-ceasefire. Continued large-scale air/drone/missile strikes claimed. Claimed Onyx strike on UA CP (Chornobaivka). Video shows coordinated artillery/drone destruction of 3 UA guns near Ivanopillya. Claimed destruction of UA HMMWV by 27th Arty Regt drones (Kotsnews/Poddubny, Apr 21).
Logistics/Challenges: Reports indicate high UA FPV drone threat impacts RU drone operations on Zaporizhzhia front (requiring tools for deployment/recovery). Persistent fundraising appeals noted, including for 5th Guards Tank Brigade (South Donetsk) needing armor, EW, drones (Mavic 3T/Pro), signal boosters, fiber-optic drones, vehicles (UAZ), motorcycles (Colonelcassad, Apr 21). Report (RBC-Ukraina citing Izvestia) alleges Chinese entities smuggling military/dual-use goods out of Russia (Requires verification). RU VDV unit vehicle damaged by remote mine requires engine replacement (Dva Mayora, Apr 21).
Personnel Policy (Putin Signed Laws, Apr 21):
Exemption from conscription for former DNR/LNR fighters and volunteers (>6 months combat).
Granting veteran status to personnel operating in Kursk Oblast and adjacent border areas involved in repelling incursions/provocations. (Confirmed by RVvoenkor).
Veteran Integration: Putin emphasized involving veterans in government ("Time of Heroes" program). Regional efforts (Nizhny Novgorod) noted for veteran reintegration.
Allied Support & Capabilities:
ISR: Possible Swedish Saab 340 AEW&C (AWACS) activity reported over Lviv region (Tsaplienko, Apr 21).
EU: Potential shift towards funding UA domestic defense industry (WP report, reiterated by RU source).
UK: Previous reports noted plans to significantly increase RDX/artillery shell production (noted by RU source).
VI. Counter-Intelligence & Security
Ukraine:
Renewed public call for citizen reporting via "eVorog" chatbot.
NEW: SBU detained 5 pro-Russian agitators across Ukraine, including a member of ex-MP Murayev's party accused of administering a pro-party Facebook group and spreading fakes/praising Putin (RBC-Ukraina, Apr 21).
Russia/Occupied Territories:
New Laws (Putin Signed, Apr 21):
Expanded "foreign agent" definition to include those supporting actions of international organizations/foreign bodies against Russia.
Criminal liability (up to 7 years) for "discrediting" army or calling for sanctions, especially if done for money/hire (Property confiscation possible).
Criminal liability (up to 1 year) for failing to report planned sabotage/terrorism (Colonelcassad, Apr 21).
Allows in absentia trials for individuals abroad accused of crimes against Russian security.
Completely bans "foreign agents" from engaging in educational and enlightenment activities.
Counter-Intelligence (Poland): Significant tightening of restrictions on photographing sensitive sites (effective Apr 17).
Corruption: Ex-Kursk Duma Deputy Maxim Vasiliev arrested in Moscow for alleged embezzlement of funds allocated for border fortifications (TASS, Apr 21). (Adds detail to previous Kursk corruption probe context).
VII. Humanitarian & Ethical Dimensions (POWs, LOAC Concerns)
Civilian Impact:
Heavy RU shelling/airstrikes continue on border communities in Chernihiv, Sumy Oblasts (GSh ZSU).
RU KAB strikes reported on settlements in Pokrovsk, Novopavlivsk, Orikhiv axes (GSh ZSU).
Reconstruction Issues (Zaporizhzhia): Zaporizhzhia OVA reports terminating contract with a contractor for failing to meet deadlines on rebuilding 3 apartment buildings damaged by RU attacks; lawsuit filed for ~15M UAH.
Putin Justification: Justifies strikes on civilian objects if allegedly used militarily (e.g., Sumy congress center claim, Odesa facility claim, restaurants). States need to "clarify" / "discuss" proposal not to strike civilian targets. (Reiterated by multiple RU sources). Sternenko notes this violates IHL.
LOAC Violations/Concerns: Putin's justification for striking potentially civilian infrastructure based on alleged military use remains a significant concern regarding distinction and proportionality under IHL.
Prisoners of War & Missing Persons:
RU Claim: 2 UA soldiers surrendered on Sumy border, guided by RU drone after contacting via chatbot (Kotsnews/Rybar, Apr 21).
UA PsyOps: Reports of UA using drones to encourage RU surrender and guide POWs (OTU Kharkiv).
Previous update confirmed POW exchange and numbers. RU sources continue to frame ceasefire as enabling KIA/WIA recovery, sometimes alleging UA obstruction or use of flags for reinforcement (Basurin video).
Detention Conditions:NEW: Reports of torture (tying to bed, starvation) uncovered at Poltava SIZO targeting inmates who refuse cooperation or complain (RBC-Ukraina citing SDBR investigation). (Note: Internal Ukrainian issue, but relevant to human rights context).
VIII. Political & Diplomatic Context
Ceasefire Aftermath (Putin Statements, Apr 21):
Confirmed resumption of hostilities. (Reiterated by multiple sources).
Claimed Russia observed reduced UA activity during ceasefire but alleges over 5,000 Ukrainian attacks occurred.
Stated Kyiv treated ceasefire proposal as a "game with fates."
Claimed Kyiv was later "advised" by "foreign curators" not to reject peace initiatives.
Expressed positive RU stance towards peace initiatives if mutual. Reiterated readiness for negotiations with UA side (Peskov, Apr 21).
Stated need to "clarify" / "discuss" proposal regarding avoiding strikes on civilian objects, potentially with UA side (Putin/Peskov, Apr 21).
Alleged "Trump Plan" (RU Sources citing WSJ, Apr 21): RU sources (Basurin, NgP raZVedka) circulate alleged details of a Trump peace plan: Ceasefire, RU keeps Crimea, ZNPP becomes neutral zone under US control, Ukraine no NATO membership, US doesn't recognize RU control of other occupied areas but doesn't demand withdrawal, no security guarantees for Ukraine. (Note: Unverified report attributed to WSJ by Russian sources, likely speculative). Peskov states no official talk of Trump visit for May 9 (TASS).
Russia Internal Politics/Society:
Putin signs multiple laws tightening control (foreign agents, discreditation, sabotage reporting, in absentia trials - see Section VI).
Putin signs laws impacting military personnel (conscription exemption, veteran status - see Section V).
Putin signs law restricting non-EGE college entry.
Emphasis on involving veterans in government, veteran reintegration efforts noted (N. Novgorod).
Public statements linking current conflict to WWII victory narrative continue.
Putin comments on May 9 Victory Day attendance, doubting EU threats against attendees, praising attendees' "courage" (TASS, RVvoenkor, Rybar).
International Developments:
Death of Pope Francis: Reported (potential cause: brain hemorrhage/stroke). Putin expresses condolences, praises Pope's positive attitude towards Russia and contribution to peace, calls death timing a "special sign". Potential successors include Cardinal Zuppi (involved in UA peace efforts) and Cardinal Parolin. Pope Francis featured on new Time magazine cover (TASS, Apr 21). UN Security Council observed minute of silence (TASS).
Reports suggest Elon Musk may leave US admin role (WP via TASS).
Alleged Chinese smuggling of RU military/dual-use goods reported by RU media (needs verification).
Potential Russia-Taliban tourism link ("Taliban Tour") discussed in RU media (ASTRA / Operatyvnyi ZSU, Apr 21).
Russia ratifies comprehensive strategic partnership treaty with Iran (RVvoenkor / Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 21).
Personnel: Death of Ukrainian MP Volodymyr Moroz (Restoration of Ukraine group) reported. Telegram fined 4M RUB in Russia for content violations (TASS).
