As of Mon Apr 21 12:11:23 2025 (Incorporating intelligence up to approx. 12:10 UTC)
I. Strategic & Air Warfare Overview
Ceasefire Expiration & Renewed Intensity:
Combat operations significantly intensified across all fronts following the expiration of the unilateral Russian ceasefire (00:00 Moscow Time, Apr 21). RU MoD confirmed resumption of operations.
Russia claims strict adherence but alleges 4,900 Ukrainian violations during the ceasefire. Kremlin spokesperson Peskov reiterated RU MoD violation data and stated Moscow will share this data with interested parties.
Ukraine maintains Russia repeatedly violated its own ceasefire, using the pause for reinforcement, resupply, fortification, and engineering preparations (e.g., confirmed Zherebets River crossings). Ukrainian officials reported nearly 3,000 RU violations prior.
RU Perspective (Dnevnik Desantnika): Alleges UA did not observe ceasefire in Belgorod Oblast (arty/drone strikes) or Zaporizhzhia (arty/FPV/Baba Yaga use); alleges UA assault attempts (Popovka, Oleshky) and resupply efforts (Demidovka, Kherson right bank).
Major Russian Air Attack (Night Apr 20-21 & Morning Apr 21):
Ukrainian Air Defense Response:42 Shahed UAVs intercepted; 47 "Imitator Drones" neutralized/failed; 0/3 cruise/anti-radiation missiles intercepted (Official Air Force).
Russian Claims: Targeted military airfields, depots, personnel in 74 areas. Claimed destruction of 104 Ukrainian UAVs (24h).
RU Specific Claims (Don_Partizan et al.):
Chornobaivka (Kherson): Onyx missile allegedly destroyed buried high-tech CP, claimed up to 20 UA officer KIA (incl. one British national), heavily wounded. (Requires Independent Verification).
Figurivka (Kharkiv): 7x Geran-2 UAVs hit training polygon (NU Civil Defence), targeting barracks (~40 pers.), engineer/comms equipment (UR-77, Kozak). Claimed destruction.
Pavlohrad (Dnipropetrovsk): Strike on "Molochiy Dom" dairy (claimed dual-use logistics). Fire reported.
Novomoskovsk (Dnipropetrovsk): Strike on "Geofizik" garden area (allegedly housing UA 93rd Bde tank bn personnel). Fire, damage claimed.
Cherkasy Airfield: 3x UAVs hit airfield undergoing prep. Claimed hits on equipment, hangar, secondary dets.
Confirmed Impacts: Civilian areas/infrastructure hit in Kivsharivka (Kharkiv), multiple Dnipropetrovsk communities (Pidhorodnenska, Pavlohrad, Mezhivska, Novopavlivska), Cherkasy Oblast.
Ongoing Air Activity & Threats (as of 12:10 UTC):
Russian tactical aviation remains highly active along North-Eastern and Eastern axes, employing KABs and missiles (Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk Oblasts targeted recently). Russian sources report intensive air operations post-ceasefire.
Missile/Recon UAV threats periodically declared and cleared in Southern/Central Oblasts.
Unusual flight patterns observed near Lviv (STERNENKO).
Recent Ukrainian Strikes:
Claimed successful deep strike (25-30 km behind RU lines) near Pisky (Donetsk), hitting RB-301B Borisoglebsk-2 EW system & vehicles (post-ceasefire).
Claimed damage to a Russian Forpost reconnaissance/strike UAV (Apr 20).
Damage confirmed from earlier (Apr 16/17) UA attacks on RU 112th Guards Missile Brigade base (Shuya, Ivanovo Oblast).
Confirmed (ASTRA Source): UA drone attacks (Apr 18-19) wounded at least 10 RU servicemen in Bryansk/Kursk Oblasts (Barbino, Kondratovka, Grudskaya).
UA Claim (OSUV Khortytsia Spox Tregubov): RU forces gradually retreating West of Pokrovsk after failed attempt to cut Pavlohrad-Pokrovsk highway. Cites UA success near Kotlyne. Claims RU shifting back towards southern outskirts. (Contrasts RU claims).
RU Claim (Operatsiya Z): Alleges UA 155th Bde suffered heavy losses/desertion.
RU Claim (RVvoenkor): RU forces ("Otvazhnye" - Group 'Center') launched active offensive across Pokrovsk front post-ceasefire, claiming lull used for resupply/rotation.
UA Drone Strike (Sternenko): UA "Flying Skull" unit drone destroyed RU personnel attempting assault using an electric scooter.
Kramatorsk Axis (Chasiv Yar):
Apr 20: 5 Russian attacks repelled (GSh ZSU).
RU Assessment (Rusich_Army via Colonelcassad): Claims RU occupies most of Chasiv Yar city, notes cleared districts (Novoseverny, Zapadny), ongoing street fighting (Shevchenko, Levanevsky, Zavodsky). Acknowledges difficult urban terrain, significant UA drone impact (esp. 427th "Rarog" BPS Regt). Assesses UA retains counter-attack potential. Highlights strategic importance for RU advance towards Kostiantynivka-Kramatorsk.
RU Claim/Geolocation (Slivochny Kapriz): Successful RU FPV strike destroyed UA tank near Fedorivka Druha (~8km from LoC).
Toretsk Axis:
Apr 20: 10 Russian attacks repelled (GSh ZSU).
CRITICAL LOSS:Ukrainian soldiers confirmed KIA in a Russian ambush during the ceasefire period (Apr 20).
UA Success: 28th Mech Bde + units reported stopping RU motorcycle assault (Video Apr 21).
RU Offensive Push (Voenkor Kotenok): RU forces resumed offensive post-ceasefire on 3 sectors (~15km front) in Aleksandro-Kalynivske/Konstantynivske direction. Repelled UA counterattack N of Sukha Balka during ceasefire, continued offensive N today. RU 150th MSD captured UA OPs W of Nelepivka/Leonidivka. Clearing OPs on Sukha Balka - Pravdivka line, attacking towards Romanivka. N of Druzhba, RU fighting in center of Dachne/pos. Dylyivka, attacking towards s. Dylyivka.
RU Claim (Operatsiya Z/RVvoenkor): RU 20th Motor Rifle Regiment ("Immortal") and 68th Tank Regiment advancing near Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk) / Niu-York.
DeepState mapping: RU advances near Sukha Balka.
Lyman Axis:
Apr 20: 12 Russian attacks repelled (GSh ZSU).
Confirmed RU engineering activity establishing Zherebets River crossings during ceasefire.
RU Claim: Expanded control zone S of Yampolivka, occupied positions towards Torske (Apr 21, Geolocated).
DeepState mapping: RU advance near Novyi.
Novopavlivsk Axis (South Donetsk):
Apr 20: 5 Russian attacks repelled (GSh ZSU).
DeepState mapping: Russia occupied Katerynivka and advanced near Preobrazhenka.
RU Claim: Destroyed UA "Baba Yaga" drone and Starlink terminal using small arms/drone drop.
RU Tactic Confirmation (Arkhangel Spetsnaza / Dva Mayora / Dnevnik Desantnika): Confirmed UA tactic of isolating forward RU assault groups. RU forces using Mavic drones for water/food/med resupply to these cut-off units. Video example provided.
RU WARNING: Specialized Ukrainian counter-drone teams reported active between Nesteryankу and Kam'yans'ke.
NEW RU Anecdotal Claim (Dva Mayora): RU paratrooper reportedly used shotgun (MP-155) to repel small UA infantry counterattack, claiming 1 UA KIA. Highlights continued small unit engagements and diverse weapon use.
Kharkiv Axis:
Apr 21 Report (OTU "Kharkiv"): Situation complex but stable. Past 24h: 1 RU attack repelled near Krasne Pershe. Significant RU drone/shelling. Claimed RU losses: 44 pers, 35 UAVs, 5 vehicles, etc.
Siversk Axis:
Apr 20: 3 Russian attempts repelled (GSh ZSU).
Kupyansk Axis:
Apr 20: 1 Russian attack repelled (GSh ZSU).
Prydniprovskyi Axis (Kherson):
Apr 20: No RU ground offensive actions (GSh ZSU). Continued shelling/drones.
RU CLAIM (Colonelcassad/NgP_raZVedka): Onyx missile strike allegedly destroyed buried UA CP in Chornobaivka, claimed high-tech equipment loss & up to 20 UA officer KIA (incl. one British national). (Requires Independent Verification).
RU Report (Dnevnik Desantnika): Alleges UA continued arty/FPV use during ceasefire, Baba Yaga drops/mining. Claims UA actions in Oleshky. Claims arrival of additional UA drone crews on right bank.
Apr 20: 9 Russian soldiers captured by Ukrainian DShV in Kursk Oblast (Video evidence Apr 21). Includes two Ukrainian citizens from occupied Crimea (RU 810th Naval Inf Bde).
Apr 18-19 (ASTRA Source Claim): UA drone attacks wounded at least 10 RU servicemen in Bryansk/Kursk.
Russian Claims & Activity:
NEW Bryansk: Reports of civilian houses burning in border area (Dva Mayora).
NEW Kursk Detailed Claims (Dnevnik Desantnika): RU 106th VDV reported close to Oleshnia, ongoing fighting. Intense combat near Hornal (RU 11th ODShB), difficult evacuation conditions noted ("Earth is Burning"). Partial RU presence claimed in Huyevo (RU 177th VDV engaged). RU 810th Naval Infantry reportedly clearing border zone.
Claimed multiple UA border crossing attempts repelled (Popovka, Hoptarivka, Oleshnia). Ongoing fighting near Hornal, Oleshnia (Kursk).
Claimed demining/evacuation/body recovery under UA fire during ceasefire (Sudzha, Kursk).
Claimed UA FPV attack wounded 3 civilians in Nechaevka (Belgorod). NEW RU CLAIM (Basurin): Alleges UA forces obstructing civilian evacuation from Huyevo (Kursk) using drones, attempting remote mining of exit routes (claims drones downed).
RU MoD Claims (Apr 21): Resumed operations in Kursk Oblast post-ceasefire. Claimed up to 50 UA personnel losses, equipment destruction in Kursk direction after ceasefire expiry. Exceptionally high cumulative loss figures claimed lack verification.
RU Perspective (Dnevnik Desantnika): Alleges UA assault groups attempted advances (esp. Popovka) and resupply (Demidovka) in Belgorod Oblast during ceasefire. Claims small UA groups entering Popovka targeted by RU UAVs.
RU Conditions Report (Butusov Plus): Video from RU 104th Regt soldier in Basovka, Sumy Oblast describes finding multiple bodies in occupied dugout, heavy incoming fire, difficult conditions.
RU CLAIM (Poddubny): Liquidation of UA Marine commander Igor Kolosnitsyn (505th Bn) on Apr 17 in Sumy border area. (Requires Verification).
NEW RU Claim/Video (Arkangel Spetsnaza): Alleged RU drone strike targeting UA group attempting advance into Belgorod Oblast (claimed filmed near Maryino, Sumy Oblast).
IV. Naval Activity
Black Sea: 1 Russian warship active (Kalibr carrier, potential salvo up to 6 missiles).
Sea of Azov: Zero Russian warships active.
Mediterranean Sea: 2 Russian warships active (Both Kalibr carriers, total potential salvo up to 12 missiles).
Aid & Support: Ongoing deliveries (minibuses to AF/Naval Avn; pickups, drones, generators, nets to 77th Airmobile Brigade - Vilkul). Zaporizhzhia joined >$190M "Partnership for a Resilient Ukraine". Dnipropetrovsk OVA meeting with "Proliska" humanitarian mission discussing aid, housing needs.
Capabilities & Force Structure: Effective FPV use (deep strike near Pisky, targeting RU electric scooter assault). Successful Shahed interceptions. Downed Orlan UAVs. Counter-drone training/teams active. RU CLAIM (Poddubny): Alleges NGU forming two new Army Corps: "Azov" & "Khartia". Claims "Khartia" composition. Mentions 3rd Assault Bde expansion to Corps level. (Requires Verification). Medical efforts highlighted. MEDEVAC Challenges (Operatyvnyi ZSU/63rd Bde): Report details M113 fire under shelling during evac, lengthy wait under fire, tanker/arty rescue, 1 infantry KIA, 3 medics survive. Highlights equipment vulnerability, inter-unit coordination, intensity.
Recruitment/Mobilization: GSh promotion of service. Proposed bill to limit draft deferment for students >25 or exceeding standard program length.
Nuclear Contingency Prep (Tsaplienko/Times of Israel): Following drone incident near ChNPP, Israel's Pluri reportedly supplying Ukraine with PLX-R18 radiation sickness treatment for potential nuclear incidents.
Russian:
Losses/Damage: Confirmed damage to 112th GMRB base. Claimed damage to Forpost UAV. Confirmed destruction of Borisoglebsk-2 EW. 9 POWs captured (Kursk). Min. 10 WIA in border drone strikes (ASTRA). 2 MT-LBs destroyed. Claimed UA tank destroyed (Kramatorsk axis). Personnel killed during electric scooter assault (Pokrovsk, UA claim). RU soldier report from Basovka (Sumy) confirms finding bodies in dugout, heavy fire. NEW Capture: Russian forces confirmed capture of a Ukrainian/Polish-designed Oncilla 4x4 armored vehicle (based on Dozor-B).
Logistics/Needs: Persistent fundraising appeals (drones, EW, comms, optics). Fundraising for 1000cc ATV for Special Forces (YuVO) for frontline tasks/MEDEVAC (Colonelcassad). Fundraising for 7th Guards Air Assault Division (Zaporizhzhia) needs drones, detectors, radios, mags (Dnevnik Desantnika). Confirmed Tactic/Challenge: Using Mavic drones for water/food resupply to isolated forward troops under fire (Orikhiv/Zaporizhzhia). RU Claim: Using donkeys for ammo/provision transport due to vehicle shortages (Butusov Plus).
Capabilities: Large-scale air/drone strikes. Claimed destruction of UA Starlink. Use of Onyx, Kh-31P missiles. Engineering demonstrated (Zherebets crossings). Claimed specific target hits (Chornobaivka CP, etc.). RU workshop assembling/modifying drones/explosives video (Arkangel Spetsnaza). Bomber prep video (Fighterbomber). Motorcycle assaults (Toretsk). Tactic: Electric scooters for assault personnel (Pokrovsk). NEW Capability: Presentation of "Perekhvat 2.0" device for intercepting analog drone video feeds (WarGonzo). NEW Weapon Use: RU MoD-issued shotgun (MP-155) claimed used effectively against infantry/drones on Zaporizhzhia front (Dva Mayora).
Allied Support & Capabilities:
UK Munitions Production (The Times): UK (BAE Systems) launching major project to significantly increase RDX explosive / 155mm shell production (16x increase by summer 2025). Includes building three new resilient facilities, reducing reliance on US/France.
US UUVs: US Navy receives first two Lionfish UUVs (REMUS 300 based) for MCM, ISR, ASW, EW. (Noted UK previously supplied REMUS 100 to Ukraine).
VI. Counter-Intelligence & Security
Ukraine:
Khmelnytskyi Arrest: SBU/Police detained woman (O. Kovalchuk) accused of treason (Art. 111) for RU GRU. Allegedly recruited via Telegram (Mar 2025) to collect intel on military objects (airfields, transit depots) in Western Ukraine via surveillance.
Previous detentions (Chernihiv, Kamyanske). 4 teens suspected in Kyiv Hydropark NGU soldier assault notified of suspicion.
Russia/Occupied Territories: FSB detained resident in occupied Crimea accused of transmitting data on military objects (Gvardeyskoye airfield, AD sites, Simferopol railway, Foros defenses) to SBU.
VII. Humanitarian & Ethical Dimensions (POWs, LOAC Concerns)
Civilian Impact: Post-ceasefire RU strikes caused damage (Kivsharivka, Dnipropetrovsk communities, Cherkasy). NEW RU Claim: Houses burning in Bryansk Oblast border area. RU claims UA FPV strike wounded civilians (Nechaevka, Belgorod) and NEW: attacked evacuating civilians/obstructed evacuation via drones/mining attempts near Huyevo (Kursk) - Requires Verification. Aid efforts ongoing ("Proliska" mission meeting Dnipro OVA head).
LOAC Violations/Concerns:
Confirmed: Ukrainian soldiers KIA in Russian ambush on Toretsk axis during declared ceasefire (Apr 20).
Confirmed: Russian FPV drone attacked marked "Proliska" humanitarian aid vehicle near Zorya during ceasefire (Apr 20), wounding occupants.
Russia heavily promoting narrative/video alleging UA attacked RU evacuation group under white flags during ceasefire (Requires Verification). Video released showing RU/UA body recovery meeting near Robotyne (Zaporizhzhia) during ceasefire.
Prisoners of War & Missing Persons:
NEW UA Data (Official): Approximately 10,000 Ukrainians confirmed held captive by Russia. Approximately 63,000 persons registered as missing since 2014 (military and civilian).
Successful POW exchange confirmed during ceasefire: 246 UA returned for 246 RU (+ wounded).
9 Russian POWs captured by Ukrainian DShV in Kursk Oblast (Apr 20).
VIII. Political & Diplomatic Context
NEW Russia-Iran Strategic Partnership: President Putin signed the law ratifying the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty with Iran. Key elements include:
Mutual commitment not to assist aggressors targeting the other party.
Enhanced military-technical cooperation and joint military exercises.
Pledge to refrain from joining/applying third-party sanctions against each other.
Cooperation on creating independent payment infrastructure.
Collaboration on countering disinformation and supporting mutual media cooperation.
(This formalizes and deepens the existing relationship, with significant potential military and economic implications).
Ceasefire Narratives: Kremlin insists ceasefire was Putin's initiative, blames Kyiv for violations citing RU MoD data (will share data). RU sources claim widespread UA violations.
Negotiation Stance (Russia): Peskov states Putin open to talks, but not public. Kremlin positively views US statements excluding UA NATO membership. RU sources dismiss alleged UA proposal for mutual ban on long-range strikes.
ZNPP: RU sources report alleged US proposal for neutral zone under US control; RU commentary questions legitimacy.
International Developments: Death of Pope Francis noted. Death of Ukrainian MP Volodymyr Moroz (Head of Verkhovna Rada energy/transport subcommittee). UK boosting domestic munitions production.
Russian Information Operations: Continued use of Western commentators (e.g., Larry Johnson) to promote narratives of inevitable Russian territorial gains (Kyiv, Odesa) and undermine US support (Tsaplienko analysis). Minor RU propaganda fail noted with incorrect helicopter image on banner in Yugra.
