Military Situation Update: Incorporating Developments up to Sun Apr 20 13:54:52 2025
I. Strategic & Information Operations
Easter Ceasefire Status & IO:
Conflicting Narratives & Widespread Violations Persist: Significant divergence between Ukrainian/Western and Russian accounts regarding adherence to the unilaterally declared Russian ceasefire (active from 18:00 Apr 19). The ceasefire is operationally ineffective across most of the front, with both sides reporting continued hostilities. GSh ZSU (16:00 Apr 20): Recorded 45 combat clashes across the front since the start of the day.
Russian Claims of Ukrainian Violations (Reinforced & Updated):
RU MoD/Basurin (Apr 20 Briefing & subsequent reports, Rybar): Claims strict adherence by Russian forces. Accuses Ukrainian forces of 444 artillery/mortar attacks and over 900 UAV strikes against Russian positions and civilian areas after the ceasefire began (18:00 Apr 19). Alleges civilian casualties (deaths/injuries) and damage resulted, particularly in RU border regions and occupied territories. Claims specific attempted UA ground attacks near Sukha Balka and Bohatyr (Donetsk Oblast) were repelled.
NEW RU CLAIM (Dva Mayora, Arkhangel Spetsnaza, Colonelcassad, Dnevnik Desantnika, Kotsnews, Apr 20): Claims UA infantry attempted cross-border attacks near Popovka (Krasnoyaruzhsky district, Belgorod Oblast) and at the junction of Kursk/Belgorod Oblasts early morning Apr 20, violating ceasefire; claims attacks repelled with heavy UA losses (firefight, artillery, FPV). (Reinforced by DvMayor repetition of Arkhangel video).
Akhmat Claim (Kadyrov_95, Operatsiya Z citing RVvoenkor, Apr 20): Claims repelling illegal border crossing by Akhmat unit (204th Spetsnaz Regt) in Belgorod border area, followed by artillery strikes on supporting UA forces.
RU Border Regions / Civilian Impact Claim (Gladkov via Colonelcassad, Apr 20): Belgorod Governor Gladkov reports UA FPV drone attack injured 3 civilians (2 children, 1 woman) in Nechaevka (Belgorod Oblast). Urges residents within 20km zone to avoid visiting cemeteries due to ongoing risk. Frames attack as deliberate targeting of civilians. RU sources (Kotsnews, Starshe Eddy, WarGonzo, Dva Mayora, Colonelcassad, Dnevnik Desantnika, Basurin citing Saldo/Gladkov/Miroshnik, Arkhangel Spetsnaza, Operatsiya Z citing Kadyrov/Akhmat) reiterate broader violation claims, adding specific locations hit: Kreminna (Luhansk Oblast), Donetsk City (Kalinin & Budyonnovsky districts - alleged fuel depot/office fire), Horlivka (Donetsk Oblast), Aleshky, Hola Prystan, Kakhovka (Occupied Kherson), numerous settlements in Belgorod Oblast (e.g., Dvuluchne, Sukharevo). Reports 48 UA UAVs used overnight (1 over Crimea). Details extensive UAV/shelling incidents in Russian border regions (Bryansk, Kursk, Belgorod).
RU Claim (Kursk): RU source (NgP raZVedka, Colonelcassad) claims Air Defence intercepted a "package" of Ukrainian MLRS rockets (HIMARS or Vilkha) over Kursk Oblast during the ceasefire period.
RU Claim (Chasiv Yar): RU source (TASS, Colonelcassad, Apr 20) claims Ukrainian forces began shelling the outskirts of Chasiv Yar with MLRS and mortars on the morning of Apr 20.
RU Claim (Kherson - Counter Narrative): RU source (Dva Mayora, Apr 20) refutes UA claims of RU strike on a residential building in Kherson, alleging intercepted UA drone footage shows the apartment was used as a UA FPV drone launch point. Provides geolocated imagery purporting to support the claim.
RU Claim (KIA/WIA Evacuation): RU sources (Operatsiya Z/RVvoenkor, Colonelcassad, Dnevnik Desantnika, Arkhangel Spetsnaza, Apr 20) claim both sides are using white flags/crosses on some sectors to evacuate KIA/WIA from grey zones during the ceasefire. Some RU sources allege UA forces obstruct Russian evacuation efforts with shelling on most sectors, while others claim UA forces are also conducting evacuations under white flags and RU forces are holding fire (Colonelcassad citing Motopatriot78, Colonelcassad video allegedly showing UA WIA evacuation). Dnevnik Desantnika highlights the value of the ceasefire for this purpose.
RU Claim (Kharkiv Axis - Pre-Ceasefire, Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 20): Claims inflicting significant UA losses on Kharkiv direction before ceasefire: 1x 2S1 Gvozdika SPG, 1x Varta AFV, 4 vehicles, 1 satellite comms station, 1 Furia UAV, 22 copters. Claims destruction of UA ammo depot & logistics group (Lyptsi sector), strikes on 4 UA combat groups/vehicles (Vovchansk sector). Notes reduced UA arty/FPV near Vovchansk.
NEW RU CLAIM (Pokrovsk Axis Violation - Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 20): RU soldier claims Ukraine violated ceasefire on Pokrovsk direction, alleging continued UA artillery and "Baba Yaga" heavy drone activity.
RU Framing (Starshe Eddy, Rybar, Basurin): RU sources maintain strict adherence to ceasefire order. Frame relative quiet on front as resulting primarily from cessation of RU artillery/aviation, while UA drone activity persists. Compare situation to Minsk agreements, acknowledging some reduction in intensity but overall continuation of hostilities, frames RU ceasefire adherence vs UA violations. Basurin states ceasefire outcome shows Kyiv regime is unwilling/unable to pursue peace. Starshe Eddy quotes biblical passage implying opponent cannot be trusted. RU sources continue framing mercenaries (alleged Colombians in Sumy direction attack claim) as lacking POW status. RU MFA official Miroshnik, TASS, Solovyov Live, Arkhangel Spetsnaza (Soledar report) maintain UA violating ceasefire across multiple fronts. RU source (Mash) disseminates video allegedly showing UA MLRS firing during ceasefire with shouts of "Christ is Risen". Kotsnews frames alleged Popovka attack as proof Kyiv cannot control forces / justification for buffer zone.
GSh ZSU Update (16:00 Apr 20): 45 combat clashes recorded since start of day. Highest activity on Pokrovsk (20 clashes), Kursk (12 clashes). Continued RU attacks on Kramatorsk (4), Toretsk (2), Novopavlivsk (2), Orikhiv (3), Lyman (2) axes. RU cross-border shelling hit Myropilske & Turya (Sumy Oblast). No active RU offensives reported on Kharkiv, Kupyansk, Siversk, Huliaipole, Prydniprovskyi axes. (Confirms widespread combat during declared ceasefire).
Zelenskyy Report (via Syrskyi, 12:00 Apr 20 - Reinforced by ASTRA): Despite Ukraine adhering to "mirror actions", reports a significant increase in Russian shelling and kamikaze drone use since 10:00 AM Apr 20. Russian FPV drone use doubled. Highest RU activity observed on Pokrovsk and Siversk axes. Continued use of RU heavy weapons. Recorded 26 Russian assault actions between 00:00 and 12:00 Apr 20. Ukraine is documenting all violations and will provide info to partners. Accuses RU of either lack of command control or using ceasefire for PR rather than genuine peace efforts. Calls for international pressure for a sustained 30-day ceasefire post-Easter.
DeepState / RBC-Ukraina / Operatyvnyi ZSU / Tsaplienko Analysis (Apr 20 - Reinforced & Updated): Acknowledges initial reduction in intensity but confirms ceasefire not being observed overall. Russian forces continue artillery shelling, drone reconnaissance/strikes (including FPV), and ground assaults, intensifying post-10AM Apr 20. Russian forces actively using the period for rotation, personnel/equipment movement, accumulation near LBS, mining, fortification, recovering KIA ('200s'), resupply, and engineering works.Specific RU Engineering Activity (Reinforced): Video evidence (DeepState/66th Bde/Tsaplienko/Operatyvnyi ZSU/ RBC-Ukraina) shows RU forces attempting to clear a path across the Chornyi Zherebets River (likely Lyman/Kupyansk direction) using specialized equipment and infantry to remove wreckage of previously destroyed RU engineering vehicle (KRVD-1). Source notes UA forces observing only ("mirror actions") as RU forces did not open fire during this work, illustrating RU exploitation of lull. RU forces allegedly using white flags/red cross markings for cover. Simultaneous Assaults: Operatyvnyi ZSU clarifies that while RU forces conducted engineering work in 66th Bde's area, they were simultaneously storming positions of another battalion within the same brigade elsewhere, highlighting the selective nature of RU "ceasefire". DeepState echoes Zelenskyy, calling RU ceasefire an "imitation". Notes RU shelling Uspenivka (Pokrovsk axis) morning Apr 20.
UA Claim (Kupyansk Axis Violation - Tsaplienko, Apr 20): Video allegedly shows RU drone targeting a vehicle (possibly carrying fiber optics) near Kupyansk during ceasefire; claims driver reaction saved lives.
STERNENKO Report (Apr 20 - Detailed Axis Violations): Confirms ceasefire "not implemented". Kherson: RU FPV use, provocations on Dnipro, 2 arty strikes on Kherson city overnight. Pokrovsk/Kurakhove: Reduced shelling intensity, isolated FPV/Mavic drops. Sumy/Kursk: RU arty/FPV strikes, observed RU personnel movement/accumulation. Toretsk: High intensity RU drone/arty use continues, small arms fire, 36 shelling incidents recorded. Zaporizhzhia: Less intense arty/drone use initially, few strikes today. BUT: RU using lull extensively for rotation, fortification, resupply. Warns of potential stronger RU push. Soledar: RU drone finished off wounded RU soldier. Belgorod: Arty overnight. Overall: RU exploiting pause for tactical/logistical improvement.
OSUV Khortytsia Spokesperson (Earlier Report): Reported earlier no significant changes; fighting continues on Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Kupyansk axes. Stated Ukraine acting "mirror-like". (See Pokrovsk Axis for later counter-claims on RU retreats).
Centre for Countering Disinformation (CPD via RBC-Ukraina, Tsaplienko, Apr 20): Accuses Russia of staging provocations in Donetsk (shelling) to falsely blame Ukraine for violating the ceasefire, aiming to portray Putin as a peacemaker.
UK MFA Statement (via Tsaplienko, Apr 20): States Ukraine committed to ceasefire, calls on Russia/Putin to do same.
UA Source Claim (Shef Hayabusa, Apr 20): Claims RU conducted an infantry-only ("meat") assault in Zaporizhzhia Oblast today, predicting RU will propagandize casualties as UA violating ceasefire.
Starshe Eddy/Arkhangel Spetsnaza: Reported relative quiet/decreased activity earlier, attributed to cessation of RU heavy fire. Noted continued UA drone activity. Claimed UA attempted advance repelled in Belgorod.
Dnevnik Desantnika (Zaporizhzhia): Reports UA FPV/recon drones active, artillery quiet. Claims UA arty active near Burlatske earlier. Acknowledges ceasefire allowed WIA/KIA evacuation.
Poddubny: Reports missile alert in Kursk.
Colonelcassad: Confirmed reduced intensity but ongoing fire. Expects "restrictions" end tonight. Reports relative quiet in Artemivsk (Bakhmut). Acknowledges reports of mutual WIA/KIA evacuation using white flags/crosses. Shares video of alleged UA WIA evacuation.
RVvoenkor / Mash (Bakhmut): Video from RU soldier notes unusual quiet in Artemivsk (Bakhmut).
Information Operations: Continued heavy Russian framing of alleged mass UA ceasefire violations vs strict RU adherence. RU sources amplify Lavrov statement accusing EU of promoting "nazism". Fox News Map Error: Continued Ukrainian MFA demands (ASTRA, Tsaplienko, Operatyvnyi ZSU, TASS, Zelenskyy via RBC-Ukraina) for apology/investigation after Fox News map allegedly labeled Kyiv as Russian territory; issue amplified by RU sources (Dva Mayora); Zelenskyy links this to need for real 30-day ceasefire. Both sides leverage Easter messages/imagery (RU MoD, GSh ZSU, Kotsnews, Alex Parker Returns, Arkhangel Spetsnaza, Zaporizhzhia OVA, Donetsk OVA drone delivery, Kadyrov_95, WarGonzo, SDF South, Narodnaya Militsiya DNR video, Operatyvnyi ZSU UPA photo recreation, Voin DV photo, Dva Mayora photo, Anatolii Shtefan video, Shef Hayabusa drone delivery video). RU Psychological Ops: Image of bomb decorated as Easter egg; video allegedly showing Ukrainian fleeing mobilization; propaganda images of Putin (Alex Parker Returns); NEW: video showing aftermath of alleged FPV strike on UA pickup with casualty (Alex Parker Returns). UA Rebuttal: Operatyvnyi ZSU clarifies alleged RU video of UA MLRS firing during ceasefire is old. UA source (Butusov Plus) mocks modified RU UAZ. RU Observation (Kotsnews, Zaporizhzhia): RU drone observed Easter message in field on UA side. UA Claim (Tsaplienko): RU allegedly used T-72B3M with Arena-M APS for propaganda film. RU Internal Issues Exploitation (Operatyvnyi ZSU): Highlights testimony from captured RU soldier (Korolev A.K., 34th MRB) alleging poor command, low pay, forced contributions. RU OPSEC Concerns (Colonelcassad): Criticizes soldier who filmed/leaked video of North Korean MLRS, highlighting operational security failures.
Prisoners of War (POW):
Confirmed Exchange (UA DShV, Apr 20): Ukraine returned 277 servicemen from Russian captivity, including 9 paratroopers. Images released. (This appears to be a re-confirmation/aggregation of the Apr 19 exchange news).
GUR representative Yusov previously confirmed preparations for future exchanges.
NEW VIDEO (Operatyvnyi ZSU, Apr 20): Interview with captured RU soldier Korolev Aleksandr Konstantinovich (w/c 01485, 34th Omsbr, captured Belgorod Oblast) detailing severe command issues, low morale, feeling used as cannon fodder, desire within unit to eliminate command.
Internal Ukrainian Developments:
Second suicide reported among National Academy of State Border Guard Service cadets (RBC-Ukraina).
Rotation Plans (RU Source Rybar perspective): Links UA MoD rotation plans to need for longer ceasefire for training/reserves.
Critical Energy Situation (Reuters via RVvoenkor, Apr 20): Ukraine's gas storage at record low (0.7 bcm / 2.22% capacity as of Apr 16) due to war damage. May need to import 5.5-6.3 billion cubic meters this winter. Highlights major vulnerability.
Kyiv Road Closures (Operatyvnyi ZSU, Apr 20): Planned partial closure of Khreshchatyk street from Apr 21-26 for road repairs. May impact logistics within the city.
Internal Russian Developments:
Chelyabinsk authorities promise aid to soldier's family after tragedy (TASS).
RU MoD states Putin ordered psychological rehabilitation for returning soldiers.
Oil spill reported in Sakhalin (TASS, Operatyvnyi ZSU).
Missing Soldiers Appeal: Relatives of missing RU soldiers (26th Tank Rgt, Kyslivka area) release second appeal citing lack of action (ASTRA).
Detention & Corruption (Kursk): Former Kursk official Vasilyev detained in major fraud case (>4 billion RUB) related to defense fortifications (TASS, Colonelcassad, Alex Parker Returns).
Morale/Logistics Issues (ASTRA, Operatyvnyi ZSU, Colonelcassad): Report of discarded children's letters in Nizhny Novgorod (ASTRA). Captured soldier interview (34th MRB) details severe dissatisfaction (Operatyvnyi ZSU). NEW: Interview with Georgiy Filatov (19 y.o., 155th Bde, former Navalny supporter via ASTRA) details joining for money/suicidal ideation, command issues, theft. OPSEC Failure: Colonelcassad criticizes soldier for leaking NK MLRS video.
Putin Schedule (TASS): Putin scheduled meeting of military-industrial commission next week.
Propaganda Campaign (MoD Russia, Apr 20): Launch of agitation train "Unity in Memory. Strength in truth!" tour starting in Kaluga. Features exhibits of WWII and modern weapons, plus captured Western equipment (M113, MaxxPro, Kirpi, Senator, Cougar) from current operations. Aimed at domestic audience, promoting patriotism and military narrative.
Geopolitical Context:
Reports persist of potential ceasefire agreement discussions in London next week. RU source (Operatsiya Z citing RVvoenkor) mentions US delegation travelling to London for talks, citing Trump envoy Kellogg. Focus on 30-day minimum comprehensive truce. RU source (Colonelcassad) mentions potential US-RU talks.
FT article highlights potential EU taxpayer impact if sanctions lapse (Operativnyi ZSU).
Lukashenko-Putin Meeting: Planned for Volgograd forum (TASS).
Alleged UA Aid Request: RU source claims UA UN rep Melnyk requested significant German aid (Operatsiya Z, Tsaplienko).
NATO-Russia Air Interaction (Baltic Sea): UK Typhoons intercepted RU aircraft (Apr 15, 17) near NATO borders (RBC-Ukraina).
US Exercise (Africa): "African Lion 2025" ongoing (Arkhangel Spetsnaza). NATO Exercise (Germany): "Bastion Lion" exercise concluded Apr 17 (involving NL, DE, BE forces), focused on tactics, UAVs (Vector, Gereon), urban combat. 1 Dutch soldier KIA in incident (Arkhangel Spetsnaza).
ISW Assessment (via RBC-Ukraina, Tsaplienko): Assesses RU may focus spring/summer offensive towards Kostyantynivka. Notes related RU drone unit redeployment from Kursk to SW of Toretsk.
US Potential Defunding of UN Peacekeeping (Rybar, Apr 20): White House Budget Office proposed eliminating US funding for UN peacekeeping missions, citing failures. US is largest funder (27%). Rybar frames this as reducing European (French) influence and allowing direct US influence, especially in Africa.
China Tests Advanced Non-Nuclear Bomb (ASTRA, Apr 20): Reports China tested non-nuclear thermobaric-like weapon using magnesium hydride (MgH₂). Potential implications for future conventional weapons.
Pope's Easter Message: Pope Francis mentioned "war-torn Ukraine", calling for peace and just solution (RBC-Ukraina, Apr 20).
Trump Easter Message: Trump's social media post contained political attacks on Biden and others, unrelated to the Ukraine conflict (Operatyvnyi ZSU).
II. Air, Missile, Drone Warfare & Logistics Impact
Russian Claims of Ukrainian Strikes (During Ceasefire Period):
RU MoD / Basurin (Apr 20, Rybar): Claims 444 artillery/mortar attacks, 900+ UAV strikes since 18:00 Apr 19. Claims 48 UAVs overnight Apr 19-20 (1 over Crimea). Claims strikes on Donetsk, Kreminna, Horlivka, occupied Kherson settlements, Russian border regions. Claims interception of HIMARS/Vilkha over Kursk. Claims UA MLRS/mortar shelling of Chasiv Yar outskirts. Claims attempted UA ground attacks repelled. NEW CLAIMS: Attempted UA infantry ground attacks near Popovka (Belgorod) and at Kursk/Belgorod junction early morning Apr 20. NEW CLAIM (Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 20): Claims UA artillery and "Baba Yaga" drone activity on Pokrovsk axis during ceasefire.
Belgorod Civilian Casualties Claim (Gladkov via Colonelcassad, Apr 20): UA FPV drone attack injured 3 civilians (2 children, 1 woman) in Nechaevka.
RU MoD Pre-Ceasefire Claim (Apr 20 Briefing): Claims UA AD shot down 3 JDAM, 1 HIMARS projectile, 88 UAVsbefore 18:00 Apr 19.
RU Claim (Kharkiv Axis - Pre-Ceasefire, Dnevnik Desantnika): Claims destruction of UA Furia UAV and 22 copters.
Ukrainian Air Activity / Strikes / AD:
Weekly Summary (UA Air Force / Operatyvnyi ZSU / RBC-Ukraina, Apr 14-20 - Reinforced):
Air Defence: Downed 699 aerial targets (3 Iskander-K cruise missiles, 159 Shahed strike UAVs, 201 Recon UAVs, 336 Other UAVs).
Air Force Aviation: Conducted 140 sorties (80+ CAP, ~50 ground attack/support). Dozens of air strikes on RU positions.
Confirmed: UA Air Force reported RU recon UAVs active over Chernihiv (AD engaged).
DeepState Analysis: Notes continued UA drone activity during ceasefire. UA drone strike confirmed near Oleshnia (Kursk/Chernihiv border) by "Specialists" unit (DeepState).NEW: UA FPV strikes claimed in Kursk Oblast by "Bombus Group" (STERNENKO), targeting vehicles (3 UAZ destroyed, 5 cars, 2 UAZ, 4 AFV damaged).
UA Innovation Highlight (Butusov Plus, Apr 20): Fundraising appeal for AD unit that pioneered using FPV drones against RU recon UAVs (Orlan, Zala, Supercam), destroying hundreds. Highlights need for specific equipment.
Butusov Plus Report (Apr 20): Video of alleged UA FPV strike on RU vehicle. NEW VIDEO (Butusov Plus / 110th Mech Bde, Apr 20): UA 110th Mech Bde drone battalion destroys column of 9 RU units (BMPs/tanks) with anti-drone cages.
Drone Delivery: Drones used for Easter Paska delivery (Donetsk OVA, Shef Hayabusa video).
Previous major claim: UA 65th Mech Bde destroyed Russian Buk M3 SAM (Zaporizhzhia).
Downed Recon UAV Found Near Kyiv (Tsaplienko, Apr 20): Fixed-wing recon UAV (marking "Ы7138H") discovered in non-residential building in Vyshneve. EOD/specialists investigating. Indicates potential RU recon deep behind lines or malfunction/interception.
Russian Strikes / Air Activity (During Ceasefire Period):
Zelenskyy Report (12:00 Apr 20 - Reinforced): Significant increase in RU shelling and kamikaze drone use since 10:00 AM Apr 20. Russian FPV drone use doubled. Continued use of heavy weapons. Highest activity on Pokrovsk & Siversk axes.
GSh ZSU Report (16:00 Apr 20): Confirms ongoing RU attacks/clashes on Pokrovsk, Kursk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk, Orikhiv, Lyman axes. Cross-border shelling on Sumy Oblast (Myropilske, Turya). 100 arty/MLRS strikes on Kursk axis alone.
DeepState Analysis (Reinforced): Notes initial absence of RU KAB/tactical aviation early in ceasefire, but primarily artillery/drones used, intensity increasing post-10AM. RU artillery strikes reported on Uspenivka (Pokrovsk axis).
UA Claim (Kupyansk - Tsaplienko, Apr 20): RU drone targeted vehicle/fiber optics near Kupyansk during ceasefire.
Starshe Eddy Assessment: Attributes relative quiet mostly to cessation of RU artillery/aviation fire.
Alleged Attack on Humanitarian Vehicle (Multiple Confirmations): RU FPV drone(s) attacked marked "Proliska" vehicle near Zorya (Kostyantynivka area), wounding aid worker and civilian evacuee during ceasefire. LOAC violation.
Kursk: Missile alert signal reported morning Apr 20 (Poddubny).
TACTIC (STERNENKO, Apr 20): Russia adapting Shahed drones for reconnaissance and real-time strike coordination. Cites Sumy region example. Warns of threat to mobile targets (SAMs) and rear areas. Calls for urgent counter-measures.
Claims strikes on UA personnel/equipment in 87 areas. Inflicting significant losses across axes.
Claims destroying specific UA equipment: 1 RM-70 MLRS (Belgorod), 1 Grad MLRS (Kupyansk), 1 Paladin SPG (S. Donetsk), multiple EW stations, ammo depots. RU Claim (Dnevnik Desantnika): Claims destroying UA 2S1 Gvozdika, Varta AFV, vehicles, comms station, Furia UAV, copters on Kharkiv axis.
Logistics - Russian:
Shipping Restored: Movement restored at Kochetovsky Hydroelectric Complex (Rostov Oblast) on Don River (TASS, Apr 20).
Fundraising appeals continue.
Adaptation: Anti-drone cages on North Korean M-1991 MLRS (confirmed). Sappers use drones for mine detection. TACTIC: Adaptation of Shaheds for recon/strike coordination (STERNENKO). NEW CLAIM: Use of remote mining systems by 14th Eng Bde near Bohatyr (Voiv DV).
Foreign Equipment Recovery: Claim recovery of Finnish MPIM Hailstorm mini directional mine (Kursk).
Propaganda Over Deployment Claim (UA Source - Tsaplienko): Single RU T-72B3M/Arena-M used for propaganda film.
Captured Western Equipment Display: M113, MaxxPro, Kirpi, Senator, Cougar displayed on MoD propaganda train (MoD Russia).
Logistics - Ukrainian Needs & Supply:
Aid Delivered (Zaporizhzhia OVA, Apr 20): Drones, NVGs, EW boosters, etc. delivered to Zaporizhzhia front.
Drone Deliveries: Used for Easter supplies.
Ongoing Fundraising Appeals: EW system (24th Aidar), Mavic (114th TDF), EW complexes (1st OSHB), beds (RBC-Ukraina), night drones (53rd Bde). NEW: Appeal for Rubizh Brigade (NGU) needs (tactical gear, camo, tech, pilot gear, vehicle repair - RBC-Ukraina). NEW: Appeal for AD/drone hunter unit equipment (FPV vs recon UAVs - Butusov Plus).
CRITICAL VULNERABILITY: Gas Storage (Reuters via RVvoenkor, Apr 20): Record low gas reserves (2.22% capacity). Need to import 5.5-6.3 bcm for winter due to war damage. Major economic/logistical challenge.
Kyiv Road Closures: Planned partial closure of Khreshchatyk street Apr 21-26 (Operatyvnyi ZSU).
Logistics - Kerch Bridge:Planned closure May 8-10 due to RU security concerns (Operatyvnyi ZSU).
III. Axis Updates (Focus on Current Claims & Activity during Ceasefire Period)
UA Perspective (GSh ZSU 16:00, Zelenskyy/Syrskyi, DeepState, OSUV Khortytsia, STERNENKO, Bdes, CPD, Tsaplienko, Operatyvnyi ZSU, RBC-Ukraina, Shef Hayabusa): Ceasefire largely violated by Russia, used as cover for RU improvements (rotation, resupply, fortification, mining, KIA recovery, position improvement & clearing river crossings - DeepState/RBC-Ukraina/66th Bde video, Tsaplienko, Operatyvnyi ZSU). 45 combat clashes since start of day (GSh ZSU 16:00). Since 10:00 AM, significant increase in RU shelling and FPV drone attacks (doubled). Most intense RU activity on Pokrovsk (20 clashes) and Kursk (12 clashes) axes. Continued RU attacks on Kramatorsk (4), Toretsk (2), Novopavlivsk (2), Orikhiv (3), Lyman (2). RU shelling reported on Uspenivka (Pokrovsk). RU cross-border shelling on Sumy Oblast. UA CLAIM: RU forces retreating near Kotlyne (Pokrovsk) due to losses (OSUV Khortytsia). UA CLAIM: RU drone attacked vehicle near Kupyansk (Tsaplienko). UA CLARIFICATION: RU forces simultaneously assaulting 66th Bde positions while conducting engineering work elsewhere in their zone (Operatyvnyi ZSU). NEW CLAIM (Shef Hayabusa): RU infantry-only assault in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. UA CLAIM (CPD/Tsaplienko): RU staged provocations in Donetsk to blame UA for violations.
RU Perspective (MoD, Milbloggers, Rybar, Basurin, Dnevnik Desantnika, Gladkov, Voiv DV): Claims strict RU adherence but massive UA violations (444 arty, 900+ UAV). Claims repelled UA ground attacks (Sukha Balka, Bohatyr, Popovka-Belgorod, Kursk/Belgorod junction, Akhmat claim). Claims UA shelling Chasiv Yar outskirts. Claims UA FPV drone hit civilians in Nechaevka (Belgorod). NEW CLAIM (Dnevnik Desantnika): UA artillery/drone activity on Pokrovsk axis. Acknowledges ceasefire used for WIA/KIA evacuation. Claims pre-ceasefire successes on Kharkiv axis. NEW CLAIM (Voiv DV): Remote mining conducted near Bohatyr (Pokrovsk); drone strike destroyed UA vehicle.
Kursk/Belgorod Axis (Border):
GSh ZSU (16:00): UA forces repelling 3 RU attacks; 12 clashes total recorded so far today. 100 RU artillery shellings (7 MLRS) against UA positions/border areas.
RU Claim: Attempted UA infantry attacks at Kursk/Belgorod junction and near Popovka (Belgorod) repelled with heavy UA losses (Arkhangel Spetsnaza, Colonelcassad, Dnevnik Desantnika, DvMayor, Kotsnews). Akhmat unit claims repelling border crossing.
Missile Alert: Signal activated in Kursk morning (Poddubny).
RU MoD / Basurin (citing Gladkov): Claims extensive UA shelling/drone strikes on border settlements during ceasefire.
UA Drone Activity: Confirmed UA drone strike near Oleshnia (DeepState). CLAIM (STERNENKO): UA "Bombus Group" FPV strikes destroyed 3 UAZ, damaged 5 cars, 2 UAZ, 4 AFVs in Kursk Oblast.
STERNENKO Report: RU arty/FPV strikes continue, RU personnel accumulating. Notes yesterday's RU use of Shahed for recon/coordination in Sumy region.
RU Redeployment (ISW/Tsaplienko): RU drone units reportedly moved from Kursk to Toretsk axis (Kostyantynivka direction).
Captured RU Soldier: Korolev A.K. (34th MRB) captured here (Operatyvnyi ZSU).
Sumy Oblast (Border):
GSh ZSU (16:00): Russian forces shelled Myropilske and Turya from Russian territory.
Kharkiv Axis:
GSh ZSU (16:00): No active RU offensive actions reported today.
RU Claim (Pre-Ceasefire, Dnevnik Desantnika): Claims inflicting significant UA losses (SPG, AFV, vehicles, comms, UAVs). Claims destroying ammo depot & logistics group (Lyptsi), strikes on combat groups/vehicles (Vovchansk). Notes reduced UA arty/FPV near Vovchansk.
Kupyansk Axis:
GSh ZSU (16:00): No active RU offensive actions reported today.
UA Claim (Ceasefire Violation, Tsaplienko): RU drone attacked vehicle/fiber optics near Kupyansk.
RU Map Update (Rybar, Pre-Apr 20): Claimed RU advances Apr 13-18 near Stepova Novoselivka, Doroshivka, Kamenka, Mala Shapkovka/Kondrashovka.
RU Engineering Activity (Reinforced): RU forces attempting to clear Chornyi Zherebets River crossing (relevant to Kupyansk/Lyman) (DeepState/RBC-Ukraina/66th Bde/Tsaplienko/Operatyvnyi ZSU).
Lyman Axis:
GSh ZSU (16:00): 2 RU clashes near Nadiia and Myrnyi.
RU Engineering Activity & Simultaneous Assaults (Reinforced) (DeepState/RBC-Ukraina/66th Bde/Tsaplienko/Operatyvnyi ZSU): RU forces using ceasefire lull to attempt clearing crossing over Chornyi Zherebets River. Simultaneously, RU forces assaulting positions of another 66th Bde battalion elsewhere.
Siversk Axis:
GSh ZSU (16:00): No active RU offensive actions reported today.
Increased RU Activity reported earlier by Zelenskyy (post-10AM).
STERNENKO Report: RU drone finished off wounded RU soldier near Soledar.
Kramatorsk Axis (Chasiv Yar / Bakhmut Area):
GSh ZSU (16:00): 4 RU attacks near Chasiv Yar and towards Stupochky & Bila Hora. 1 clash ongoing.
RU Claim: UA shelling outskirts of Chasiv Yar morning Apr 20 (TASS, Colonelcassad).
RU Observation (Colonelcassad, RVvoenkor, Mash): Reports relative quiet in Artemivsk (Bakhmut) during ceasefire.
RU Drone Strikes (Arkhangel Spetsnaza, Apr 20): Video compilation shows RU drone strikes (allegedly 33rd MRR) in Tarasivka (Kostyantynivka direction).
ISW Assessment (Tsaplienko): Potential RU summer offensive focus on push towards Kostyantynivka.
Toretsk Axis:
GSh ZSU (16:00): 2 RU attacks near Druzhba and Toretsk.
Fighting ongoing, high intensity RU drone/arty use persists (OSUV Khortytsia, STERNENKO - 36 shelling incidents recorded).
RU Redeployment (ISW/Tsaplienko): RU drone units moved from Kursk direction to area SW of Toretsk near Kalynove, operating towards Kostyantynivka.
Alleged Attack on Humanitarian Vehicle: RU FPV attacked "Proliska" vehicle near Zorya (Kostyantynivka area), wounding staffer/civilian.
RU MoD Claim: Attempted UA ground attack near Sukha Balka repelled.
RU Claim (Map Update): Claimed advances in Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk), near Sukha Balka, Dyliivka.
Pokrovsk Axis:
GSh ZSU (16:00): HIGHEST ACTIVITY - 20 clashes of varying intensity since start of day near Sukha Balka, Myrolyubivka, Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Kotlyne, Udachne, Novooleksandrivka, Yelyzavetivka, Uspenivka, Preobrazhenka, Andriivka, Rozlyv. 2 clashes ongoing.(Confirms Zelenskyy report of high activity).
UA CLAIM (OSUV Khortytsia): RU achieving least success here despite highest effort. Russian forces allegedly retreating near Kotlyne and west of it due to losses.
DeepState / RBC-Ukraina Report: RU shelling reported in Uspenivka area morning Apr 20. RU forces improving positions during lull.
RU MoD Claim: Liberation of Novomykhailivka (pre-ceasefire). Liberation of Shevchenko claimed Apr 19.
RU MoD Claim: Attempted UA ground attack near Bohatyr repelled.
RU CLAIM (Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 20): Claims continued UA artillery and "Baba Yaga" heavy drone activity on this axis during the ceasefire period.
RU CLAIM (Voiv DV, Apr 20): Claims RU engineers conducted remote mining near Bohatyr. Claims RU drones destroyed UA vehicle near Bohatyr.
UA VIDEO (Butusov Plus / 110th Mech Bde): Shows destruction of RU column (9 units with anti-drone cages) by 110th Mech Bde drone battalion on this axis.
RU Claim (Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 20 - V. Novosilka): UA artillery active near Burlatske.
Huliaipole Axis:
GSh ZSU (16:00): No active RU offensive actions reported today.
Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia):
GSh ZSU (16:00): 3 RU attempts near Mala Tokmachka and Stepove repelled.
STERNENKO Report: Reduced intensity RU arty/drone use initially. RU heavily using lull for rotation, fortification, resupply.
Observation (Dnevnik Desantnika): UA FPV/recon drones active earlier, artillery quiet.
NEW UA CLAIM (Shef Hayabusa, Apr 20): RU launched an infantry-only ("meat") assault in Zaporizhzhia Oblast today.
Prydniprovskyi Axis (Kherson):
GSh ZSU (16:00): No active RU offensive actions reported today.
RU Counter-Claim: RU alleges building hit in Kherson was UA FPV base (Dva Mayora).
STERNENKO Report: RU FPV use, Dnipro provocations (boats), 2 arty strikes on Kherson city overnight.
RU sources claim continued UA attacks on occupied left bank settlements during ceasefire.
IV. Capabilities & Logistics Summary
Ukrainian:
Air Defence/EW:Weekly Summary (UA AF): Downed 699 targets (3 Iskander-K, 159 Shahed, 537 other UAVs). Facing persistent RU drone threats (FPV use doubled post-10AM Apr 20 per Zelenskyy). NEW THREAT: RU adapting Shaheds for recon/strike coordination (STERNENKO). TACTIC: UA AD units using FPV drones against RU recon UAVs (Orlan, Zala, Supercam), claimed highly effective (Butusov Plus appeal). Needs highlighted by fundraising (EW for 24th Aidar, 1st OSHB, AD/Drone Hunter unit, Rubizh Bde). Received EW amplifiers/antennas (Zaporizhzhia front). RU claims UA lost multiple EW stations pre-ceasefire.
Air Force:Weekly Summary (UA AF): 140 sorties (80+ CAP, ~50 ground attack/support). Dozens of strikes on RU positions.
Drone Capabilities:Weekly Summary (UA AF Drone Units): 515 sorties; claimed destruction of >10 RU personnel, 8 shelters, 2 Supercam, 1 Lancet. Active use reported. Downed RU recon UAV recovered near Vyshneve (Kyiv Oblast) (Tsaplienko). CLAIM: UA FPV strikes ("Bombus Group") destroyed/damaged numerous RU vehicles in Kursk Oblast (STERNENKO). FPV strikes continue (Butusov Plus). VIDEO EVIDENCE (Butusov Plus / 110th Mech Bde): Successful destruction of RU column (9 units with anti-drone cages). Received drones/accessories (Zaporizhzhia front). Fundraising ongoing (Mavic 114th TDF, night drones 53rd Bde, Rubizh Bde, AD/Drone Hunter unit). RU MoD claims 88 UA UAVs downed pre-ceasefire, 900+ strikes during ceasefire. RU Claims: Destroyed UA Furia UAV, 22 copters (Kharkiv axis, pre-ceasefire); UA "Baba Yaga" drones active on Pokrovsk axis (Dnevnik Desantnika).
Strike Capabilities: Previous claim of destroying Buk M3 SAM. Alleged strikes claimed by RU (Donetsk, Kreminna, Horlivka, occupied Kherson, border regions). CLAIM: UA FPV drone attack injured civilians in Nechaevka, Belgorod (RU Claim). RU Claim: MLRS strikes attempted on Kursk and Chasiv Yar. RU MoD claims 1 HIMARS intercepted pre-ceasefire.
Artillery/MLRS: RU MoD claims high UA arty/MLRS losses pre-ceasefire. Claims 444 UA arty/mortar strikes during ceasefire. RU Claim: UA artillery active on Pokrovsk axis during ceasefire (Dnevnik Desantnika).
Logistics: Receiving supplies (Zaporizhzhia front). Fundraising ongoing (Rubizh Bde needs tactical/tech gear, vehicle repair). CRITICAL VULNERABILITY: Gas Storage levels lowest ever (2.22% capacity), requires significant import (5.5-6.3 bcm) for winter due to war damage (Reuters/RVvoenkor). Rotation Plans: Ongoing. Internal Logistics: Planned partial road closures on Khreshchatyk, Kyiv (Apr 21-26) (Operatyvnyi ZSU).
Personnel:POW Exchange: 277 returned. Personnel Highlight: Interview with 18-year-old FPV operator "Eva". Second Border Guard cadet suicide reported. Morale support evident. RU MoD claims high UA losses pre-ceasefire. GSh ZSU: Repelled RU attacks on multiple axes, currently engaged in 45 clashes total today. OSUV Khortytsia claims significant RU losses leading to retreats (Pokrovsk).
Russian:
Air Power: Initial absence of KAB/tactical aviation noted early in ceasefire, but situation likely changing. GSh ZSU (16:00) reports no active RU offensive actions involving aviation on several axes, but continued ground assaults.
Drone Capabilities: Active recon UAVs (Chernihiv, downed UAV near Kyiv). High volume use claimed (900+ strikes). FPV use doubled since 10:00 AM Apr 20 (Zelenskyy). TACTIC: Adaptation of Shaheds for recon/strike coordination (STERNENKO). Redeployment: Drone units moved from Kursk to Toretsk axis (ISW/Tsaplienko). RU Drone Strikes Confirmed/Claimed: Tarasivka (Kostyantynivka dir - Arkhangel video), near Kupyansk (Tsaplienko claim), Nechaevka, Belgorod (Gladkov claim - civilian casualties). NEW CLAIM: RU drone strike destroyed UA vehicle near Bohatyr (Voiv DV). Needs identified (fundraising). Heavy drone downed by UA Mavic (Toretsk). Sappers training with drones. UA claims downing RU recon UAVs.
Artillery:Intense artillery indicated by "333" code (Fighterbomber).GSh ZSU reports 100 RU arty/MLRS strikes on Kursk axis alone today. Continued heavy shelling reported across front.
Engineering: Actively using ceasefire lull for clearing Chornyi Zherebets river crossing (DeepState/RBC-Ukraina/66th Bde/Tsaplienko/Operatyvnyi ZSU). NEW CLAIM: 14th Engineer Brigade conducted remote mining near Bohatyr (Voiv DV).
Ground Forces/Claims:GSh ZSU (16:00): Engaged in 45 clashes today. High intensity on Pokrovsk (20), Kursk (12). Continued attacks on Kramatorsk (4), Toretsk (2), Novopavlivsk (2), Orikhiv (3), Lyman (2). Claimed liberation of Novomykhailivka (pre-ceasefire). Actively using ceasefire lull for logistics, fortification, engineering, while simultaneously assaulting other positions (Operatyvnyi ZSU). Claimed advances on multiple map updates. Claimed retreat on Pokrovsk axis due to losses (UA OSUV Khortytsia). NEW CLAIM (Shef Hayabusa): Infantry-only assault launched in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
Logistics:Shipping restored on Don River (TASS). Drone repair capability noted. Adaptation: Anti-drone protection on North Korean M-1991 MLRS (confirmed). Sappers training with drones, recovering foreign mines. Kerch Bridge Closure: Planned May 8-10 closure impacts logistics. Morale/Logistics Issues: Discarded children's letters (ASTRA). EVIDENCE OF LOW MORALE/ISSUES: ASTRA interview with Filatov (155th Bde) details command issues, theft, joining for money/suicidal reasons. OPSEC Failure: Colonelcassad criticizes soldier leaking NK MLRS video. Anti-drone cages proven ineffective against targeted UA drone strikes (110th Bde video). Propaganda Train: MoD train touring regions displaying captured Western equipment (M113, MaxxPro, Kirpi, Senator, Cougar) alongside historical/modern RU gear (MoD Russia).
Foreign Equipment:North Korean 240mm M-1991 MLRS confirmed in service. Claims of recovering Finnish mines (Kursk). Captured Western equipment (US, Turkish, Canadian) displayed on propaganda train.
Morale/IO: Continued focus on Easter. Heavy emphasis on alleged UA ceasefire violations. Internal Issues: Missing soldiers appeal (ASTRA). POW interview critical of command (Butusov Plus). Domestic tragedy support. Corruption: Kursk official arrested (fortification fraud). Discarded letters report. NEW: Filatov (155th Bde) interview confirms internal problems. Captured soldier (34th MRB) details severe dissatisfaction (Operatyvnyi ZSU). OPSEC concerns raised by milblogger (Colonelcassad). Propaganda Campaign: Agitation train launched (MoD Russia). Propaganda video showing alleged UA casualty (Alex Parker).
SAM Systems: AD claimed active over Kursk. Previous UA claim of destroying Buk M3 system.
V. Humanitarian & Ethical Considerations
Ceasefire & Civilian Harm:
Widespread Violations & Escalation: Ceasefire largely disregarded. 45 combat clashes reported by GSh ZSU by 16:00 Apr 20. RU accused of massive violations (shelling, drones, ground attacks) while claiming adherence. Ukraine reports significant increase in RU shelling/FPV use post-10AM Apr 20, accuses RU of exploiting lull for military prep. RU forces simultaneously conducting engineering work AND offensive assaults (66th Bde area, Operatyvnyi ZSU).
Specific Incidents (Claims during Ceasefire):
RU Claims: UA strikes on Donetsk, Kreminna, Horlivka, occupied Kherson, RU border regions. UA MLRS on Kursk & Chasiv Yar. UA FPV drone attack injured 3 civilians (incl. 2 children) in Nechaevka, Belgorod (Gladkov/Colonelcassad). RU frames as deliberate targeting. UA artillery/drones active on Pokrovsk axis (Dnevnik Desantnika).
UA Claims: RU shelling Uspenivka (Pokrovsk). RU drone targeted vehicle/fiber optics near Kupyansk (Tsaplienko).
Kherson Strike Counter-Claim: RU alleges building hit was UA FPV base (Dva Mayora).
Confirmed Attack on Humanitarian Aid:RU FPV drone(s) attacked marked "Proliska" vehicle near Zorya (Kostyantynivka area) during ceasefire, wounding aid worker/civilian. LOAC violation.
Impact Pre-Ceasefire: Kharkiv: 17 wounded remain hospitalized. Kupyansk/Izium districts hit by KABs/missile.
Risk Near Kyiv: Downed RU recon UAV found in Vyshneve (Tsaplienko) indicates potential threat extension.
Prisoners of War:Successful exchange: 277 Ukrainian soldiers returned.UA VIDEO: Interview with captured RU soldier (Korolev A.K., 34th MRB) detailing severe morale/command issues. RU sources reiterate mercenaries lack POW status.
KIA/WIA Recovery / Misuse of Symbols: Both sides reportedly using white flags/crosses for recovery on some sectors. RU sources give conflicting accounts (mutual cooperation vs UA obstruction). UA sources note RU using flags/crosses as cover for rotation/resupply/engineering work (DeepState/66th Bde evidence).
Information Environment: Intense IO surrounding ceasefire. RU blames UA for violations. UA accuses RU of violating own ceasefire, staging provocations (CPD/Tsaplienko), exploiting lull. Fox News map error continues as focal point (UA MFA demands via ASTRA). Dissemination of POW narratives (UA video, ASTRA interview). RU propaganda continues (Alex Parker). UA Rebuttal of specific RU claims. RU OPSEC concerns voiced by milblogger (Colonelcassad). RU Propaganda: MoD agitation train tour displaying captured equipment (MoD Russia). Video showing alleged UA casualty (Alex Parker).
Personnel Welfare:Return of 277 UA POWs. Second UA Border Guard cadet suicide. Captured RU soldier testimony highlights fear, losses, command indifference, low pay (Operatyvnyi ZSU). ASTRA interview (Filatov, 155th Bde) adds details on command issues, theft, reasons for joining (money/desperation). RU missing soldiers appeal (ASTRA). RU report on soldier's family tragedy. RU MoD order for psychological rehab. RU forces use ceasefire for KIA/WIA recovery. Corruption: Kursk official arrest. Discarded letters report.
Critical Infrastructure & Energy Security:Shipping restored on Don River (TASS). CRITICAL: Ukraine faces severe gas shortage due to war damage, needs massive imports (5.5-6.3 bcm) for winter (Reuters/RVvoenkor). RU claim of UA targeting energy facilities. Oil spill in Sakhalin. Kerch Bridge Closure: Planned May 8-10. UA claims RU drone targeted fiber optics near Kupyansk.
Mine Contamination: RU claim recovery of Finnish mine (Kursk). Ongoing threat highlighted. RU drone finished off RU soldier who hit mine (STERNENKO). RU forces use lull for demining. NEW RU CLAIM: Remote mine laying near Bohatyr (Voiv DV).
