Military Situation Update: Incorporating Developments up to Sun Apr 20 11:24:52 2025
I. Strategic & Information Operations
Easter Ceasefire Status & IO:
Conflicting Narratives Persist: Significant divergence between Ukrainian/Western and Russian accounts regarding adherence to the unilaterally declared Russian ceasefire (active from 18:00 Apr 19).
Russian Claims of Ukrainian Violations (Reinforced & Updated):
RU MoD (Apr 20 Briefing & subsequent reports, Rybar): Claims strict adherence by Russian forces. Accuses Ukrainian forces of 444 artillery/mortar attacks and over 900 UAV strikes against Russian positions after the ceasefire began (18:00 Apr 19). Alleges civilian casualties and damage resulted. Claims specific attempted UA ground attacks near Sukha Balka and Bohatyr (Donetsk Oblast) were repelled. Reports 48 UA UAVs used overnight (1 over Crimea). Details 12 shelling incidents, 33 UAV strikes, and 7 munition drops on Russian border regions (Bryansk, Kursk, Belgorod). NEW RU CLAIM (Dva Mayora, Apr 20): Claims UA infantry attempted a cross-border attack near Popovka (Krasnoyaruzhsky district, Belgorod Oblast) early morning Apr 20, violating ceasefire. RU sources (Kotsnews, Starshe Eddy, WarGonzo, Dva Mayora, Colonelcassad, Dnevnik Desantnika) reiterate broader violation claims, adding specific locations hit: Kreminna (Luhansk Oblast), Donetsk City (Kalinin district), Horlivka (Donetsk Oblast), Aleshky, Hola Prystan, Kakhovka (Occupied Kherson).
RU Claim (Kursk): RU source (NgP raZVedka, Colonelcassad) claims Air Defence intercepted a "package" of Ukrainian MLRS rockets (HIMARS or Vilkha) over Kursk Oblast during the ceasefire period.
RU Claim (Chasiv Yar): RU source (TASS) claims Ukrainian forces began shelling the outskirts of Chasiv Yar with MLRS and mortars on the morning of Apr 20.
RU Claim (Kherson - Counter Narrative): RU source (Dva Mayora, Apr 20) refutes UA claims of RU strike on a residential building in Kherson, alleging intercepted UA drone footage shows the apartment was used as a UA FPV drone launch point. Provides geolocated imagery purporting to support the claim.
RU Claim (KIA Evacuation): RU source (Operatsiya Z/RVvoenkor, Apr 20) claims both sides are using white flags/crosses on some sectors to evacuate KIA from grey zones, but alleges UA forces obstruct Russian evacuation efforts with shelling on most sectors.
RU sources continue framing mercenaries (alleged Colombians in Sumy direction attack claim) as lacking POW status. RU MFA official Miroshnik, TASS, Solovyov Live, Arkhangel Spetsnaza (Soledar report) maintain UA violating ceasefire across multiple fronts. RU source (Mash) disseminates video allegedly showing UA MLRS firing during ceasefire with shouts of "Christ is Risen". RU Framing (Rybar): Compares situation to Minsk agreements, acknowledging some reduction in intensity but overall continuation of hostilities, frames RU ceasefire adherence vs UA violations.
Zelenskyy Report (via Syrskyi, 12:00 Apr 20 - Reinforced by ASTRA): Despite Ukraine adhering to "mirror actions", reports a significant increase in Russian shelling and kamikaze drone use since 10:00 AM Apr 20. Russian FPV drone use doubled. Highest RU activity observed on Pokrovsk and Siversk axes. Continued use of RU heavy weapons. Recorded 26 Russian assault actions between 00:00 and 12:00 Apr 20. Ukraine is documenting all violations and will provide info to partners. Accuses RU of either lack of command control or using ceasefire for PR rather than genuine peace efforts ("either Putin doesn't fully control his army, or the situation proves Russia has no goal of ending the war"). Calls for international pressure for a sustained 30-day ceasefire post-Easter.
DeepState Analysis (Apr 20 - Reinforced): Acknowledges a general reduction in combat intensity initially and unusual quiet on some fronts, with a notable continued absence of Russian KAB strikes and tactical aviation early in the period. However, confirms the ceasefire is not being observed overall. Russian forces continue artillery shelling, drone reconnaissance/strikes (including FPV), and ground assaults, particularly intensifying post-10AM Apr 20. Russian forces are actively using the period for rotation, personnel/equipment movement, accumulation near the Line of Battle Contact (LBS), mining, fortification, recovering KIA ('200s'), and resupply. (DeepState observation, Tsaplienko, STERNENKO). DeepState echoes Zelenskyy's assessment, calling the RU ceasefire an "imitation" used to improve positions and resupply for future attacks. Notes reports of RU shelling Uspenivka (Pokrovsk axis) morning of Apr 20, highlighting difficulty for UA forces to utilize any lull safely. NEW Video Evidence (DeepState): Shares footage allegedly showing RU forces actively improving/arranging positions during the "ceasefire".
STERNENKO Report (Apr 20 - Detailed Axis Violations): Confirms ceasefire "not implemented". Kherson: RU FPV use, provocations on Dnipro (attempted landings), 2 arty strikes on Kherson city overnight. Pokrovsk/Kurakhove: Reduced shelling intensity, isolated FPV/Mavic drops. Sumy/Kursk: RU arty/FPV strikes, observed RU personnel movement/accumulation. Toretsk: High intensity RU drone/arty use continues, small arms fire, 36 shelling incidents recorded. Zaporizhzhia: Less intense arty/drone use (Apr 19 20:00 - Apr 20 02:00), few strikes today. BUT: RU using lull extensively for rotation (using white flags/red cross), fortification, resupply close to LBS. Warns of potential stronger RU push soon. Soledar: RU drone finished off wounded RU soldier who hit mine. Belgorod: Arty overnight, quiet now. Overall: RU exploiting pause for tactical/logistical improvement.
OSUV Khortytsia Spokesperson (via Operatyvnyi ZSU, RBC-Ukraina, Apr 20): Reported earlierno significant changes; fighting continues on Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Kupyansk axes. Stated Ukraine is acting "mirror-like", only responding to RU fire, not initiating. (See Pokrovsk Axis for later update)
93rd Mech Bde ("Kholodnyi Yar", Donetsk Oblast via RBC-Ukraina, Apr 20): Reported earlier the number of shellings had decreased but found it "difficult to say if [the ceasefire] is real". Confirmed RU continues using artillery, drone drops, and FPV drones.
66th Mech Bde (via Operatyvnyi ZSU, Apr 20): Stated brigade continues holding lines while RU attacks positions with artillery and drones. Confirmed RU is using the lull for tactical improvement and personnel rotation.
President Zelenskyy (previously noted) observed varied Russian activity. UA sources maintain alleged Donetsk strikes are provocations. NEW UK MFA Statement (via Tsaplienko, Apr 20): States Ukraine committed to ceasefire, calls on Russia/Putin to do the same and end invasion.
Starshe Eddy/Arkhangel Spetsnaza: Reported relative quiet/decreased activity on most axes (Kursk, Belgorod, Siversk, Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson ground) but noted continued UA drone activity (Kursk, Belgorod, Pokrovsk, Kherson) and isolated small arms fire (Belgorod).
Dnevnik Desantnika: Reports UA FPV and recon drones active over Zaporizhzhia axis, artillery quiet. Claims UA arty active near Burlatske (Velyka Novosilka direction).
Poddubny: Reports missile alert signal in Kursk, first time noted since ceasefire start.
Colonelcassad: Confirmed overall reduced intensity but ongoing fire exchange. Expects cessation of "restrictions" tonight. Claims relative quiet in Artemivsk (Bakhmut) during Easter.
Information Operations: Continued heavy Russian framing of alleged mass UA ceasefire violations vs strict RU adherence, alleged mercenary use, tactics (probing attacks). RU sources amplify reports of US political dynamics potentially unfavorable to Ukraine aid/support, including alleged direct participation of US Congressman on frontline (Voenkor Kotenok). RU sources amplify Lavrov statement accusing EU of promoting "nazism" by discouraging May 9th travel to Russia. Fox News Map Error: Continued Ukrainian MFA demands (via Tykhyi, Operatyvnyi ZSU, Tsaplienko, Operatsiya Z, TASS, Zelenskyy via RBC-Ukraina) for apology/investigation after Fox News map allegedly labeled Kyiv as Russian territory; issue amplified by RU sources (Dva Mayora); Zelenskyy links this to need for real 30-day ceasefire. Both sides leverage Easter messages/imagery (RU MoD, GSh ZSU, Kotsnews, Alex Parker Returns, Arkhangel Spetsnaza, Zaporizhzhia OVA, Donetsk OVA drone delivery, G. Nikitin, Kadyrov_95). RU Psychological Ops: Image of bomb decorated as Easter egg circulated (Alex Parker Returns); video allegedly showing Ukrainian fleeing mobilization being "exposed" (Alex Parker Returns). UA Rebuttal: Operatyvnyi ZSU clarifies that a video circulated by RU sources (Mash) allegedly showing UA MLRS firing during ceasefire ("Christ is Risen") is old footage from 2022/2023. UA source (Butusov Plus) mocks modified RU UAZ vehicle. RU Source (Alex Parker Returns): Amplifies UA video of drone delivering Easter cakes, notes car driving nearby suggesting lack of combat. UA SDF South releases Easter message video showing SOF operations.
Prisoners of War (POW):
Confirmed Exchange (UA DShV, Apr 20): Ukraine returned 277 servicemen from Russian captivity, including 9 paratroopers. Images of returned soldiers released. Treatment/rehabilitation promised.
GUR representative Yusov previously confirmed preparations for future exchanges, noting RU priorities (Wagner, favored personnel).
UA source (Butusov Plus) previously released interview with captured RU soldier detailing harsh conditions.
Internal Ukrainian Developments:
Second suicide reported among National Academy of State Border Guard Service cadets (RBC-Ukraina).
Rotation Plans (RU Source Rybar perspective): RU source notes UA MoD statements about starting rotation for troops fighting since 2022, contingent on building sufficient reserves. Links this to UA need for a lengthy ceasefire (e.g., 30 days) for training/preparation. Notes potential use of 18-24 y.o. contractors to fill gaps.
Internal Russian Developments:
Chelyabinsk authorities promise aid to family of soldier whose children died in fire (TASS).
RU MoD states Putin ordered psychological rehabilitation for returning soldiers.
Oil spill reported during tanker transfer in Sakhalin (TASS, Operatyvnyi ZSU). Potential environmental impact.
Missing Soldiers Appeal: Relatives of missing RU soldiers (26th Tank Rgt, w/c 52562, missing near Kyslivka, Kharkiv Oblast since Oct 2024) release second video appeal to Putin/Belousov, citing lack of action/information from command (ASTRA).
Detention & Corruption (Kursk): Former Kursk Oblast Duma deputy Vasilyev detained, reportedly gave testimony against ex-governor Smirnov in major fraud case related to defense fortifications construction. Potential scale >4 billion RUB (TASS, Colonelcassad).
Geopolitical Context:
Reports persist (NY Post via Tsaplienko, Apr 19) of potential ceasefire agreement discussions in London next week. RU source (Colonelcassad) also mentions London talks and potential US-RU talks next week, anticipating a "bifurcation point" for the conflict's direction.
FT article (via Operativnyi ZSU) highlights potential economic impact on EU taxpayers if sanctions lapse (e.g., Hungarian veto), affecting frozen assets used as collateral for UA loans.
Lukashenko-Putin Meeting: Lukashenko confirms plans to meet Putin at Volgograd forum (TASS).
Alleged UA Aid Request: RU source (Operatsiya Z, Tsaplienko) reports UA UN rep Melnyk allegedly requesting Germany provide 30% of Bundeswehr equipment, including 150 Taurus missiles by May 6th, projecting war capability until 2029 with support.
NATO-Russia Air Interaction (Baltic Sea): UK Typhoon fighters intercepted Russian recon aircraft over Baltic Sea (Apr 15) and another unidentified aircraft from Kaliningrad (Apr 17) near NATO borders (RBC-Ukraina).
US Exercise (Africa): US-led "African Lion 2025" exercise ongoing (Apr 14 - May 26) in North/West Africa (Tunisia, Ghana, Senegal, Morocco) involving ~10k troops from 30+ nations, including HIMARS deployment (Arkhangel Spetsnaza).
II. Air, Missile, Drone Warfare & Logistics Impact
Russian Claims of Ukrainian Strikes (During Ceasefire Period):
RU MoD (Apr 20, Rybar): Quantified claims of 444 artillery/mortar attacks, 900+ UAV strikes since 18:00 Apr 19. Claims 48 UAVs overnight Apr 19-20 (1 over Crimea). Claims specific strikes on Donetsk, Kreminna, Horlivka, occupied Kherson settlements, and Russian border regions (Bryansk, Kursk, Belgorod - 12 shelling, 33 UAV, 7 munition drops). Claims interception of HIMARS/Vilkha MLRS rockets over Kursk Oblast. Claims UA MLRS/mortar shelling of Chasiv Yar outskirts (morning Apr 20). Claims attempted UA ground attacks near Sukha Balka & Bohatyr repelled. NEW RU CLAIM (Dva Mayora): Attempted UA infantry ground attack near Popovka (Belgorod) early morning Apr 20.
Visuals previously shared by RU sources showed smoke over Donetsk. RU sources report AD activity over Donetsk.
Ukrainian Air Activity / Strikes / AD:
Weekly Summary (UA Air Force, Apr 14-20):
Air Defence: Downed 699 aerial targets (3 Iskander-K cruise missiles, 159 Shahed strike UAVs, 201 Recon UAVs, 336 Other UAVs).
Air Force Aviation: Conducted 140 sorties (80+ CAP, ~50 ground attack/support). Dozens of air strikes on RU positions (C2, concentration areas).
Confirmed: UA Air Force reported Russian reconnaissance UAVs active over Chernihiv Oblast (08:00 UTC Apr 20), AD engaged.
DeepState Analysis: Notes continued UA drone activity during ceasefire period.
Butusov Plus Report (Apr 20): Publishes video showing aftermath of alleged UA FPV drone strike on RU vehicle (claimed 69th Bde filming), confirming casualties.
Drone Delivery: Drones used to deliver Easter Paskas to UA soldiers on the front (Donetsk OVA via RBC-Ukraina, amplified by RU source Alex Parker Returns).
Previous major claim (Apr 19/20): UA 65th Mech Bde destroyed Russian Buk M3 SAM deep in Zaporizhzhia direction.
RU MoD Pre-Ceasefire Claim (Apr 20 Briefing): Claims UA AD shot down 3 JDAM guided bombs, 1 HIMARS projectile, and 88 fixed-wing UAVsbefore 18:00 Apr 19.
Russian Strikes / Air Activity (During Ceasefire Period):
Zelenskyy Report (12:00 Apr 20 - Reinforced): Significant increase in RU shelling and kamikaze drone use since 10:00 AM Apr 20. Russian FPV drone use doubled. Continued use of heavy weapons. Highest activity on Pokrovsk & Siversk axes. No air raid alerts reported morning Apr 20.
DeepState Analysis (Reinforced): Notes initial general absence of Russian KAB and tactical aviation use during the ceasefire period observed early on. Russian forces primarily using artillery and drones against UA positions, with intensity increasing after 10:00 AM Apr 20. RU artillery strikes reported on Uspenivka (Pokrovsk axis) morning Apr 20.
Kharkiv Oblast (Syniehubov, Apr 20): Night reported relatively calm. Recaps strikes before 18:00 Apr 19: 16 KABs hit Kupyansk district, 1 missile hit Izium district, destroying 4 private houses. Updates on Apr 18 Kharkiv ballistic missile strike: 17 wounded remain hospitalized.
Alleged Attack on Humanitarian Vehicle (Multiple Confirmations): RU FPV drone(s) allegedly attacked a marked humanitarian mission vehicle ("Proliska") near Zorya (Kostyantynivka area), wounding aid worker (Evhen Tkachev) and civilian evacuee (STERNENKO, Operatyvnyi ZSU, Tsaplienko, ASTRA via Radio Svoboda, RBC-Ukraina via Radio Svoboda). Potential LOAC violation. Incident occurred during declared ceasefire.
Kursk: Missile alert signal reported morning Apr 20 (Poddubny).
Claims liberation of Novomykhailivka (Donetsk Oblast) by Zapad Group. (Reiterated by Colonelcassad post-ceasefire start)
Claims strikes on UA personnel/equipment concentrations in 87 areas.
Claims inflicting significant UA losses across various axes (see Axis Updates).
Claims destroying specific UA equipment: 1 RM-70 MLRS (Belgorod Dir), 1 Grad MLRS (Kupyansk Dir), 1 Paladin SPG (S. Donetsk Dir), multiple EW stations, ammo depots.
Logistics - Russian:
Confirmed Shipping Disruption: Russian-flagged cargo ship collision blocked shipping channel at Kochetovsky Hydroelectric Complex (Rostov Oblast) on the Don River (TASS, RU EMERCOM). Potential impact on inland waterway logistics towards Azov Sea.
Fundraising appeals continue (e.g., for drones for "Sotka" unit via Arkhangel Spetsnaza).
Adaptation: RU soldiers observed installing anti-drone protection cages on North Korean M-1991 MLRS (Butusov Plus, Operatyvnyi ZSU - first visual confirmation, reinforced by Alex Parker Returns video). RU sapper training video shows use of drones for mine detection (Colonelcassad).
Foreign Equipment Recovery: RU sources claim recovery of Finnish MPIM Hailstorm mini directional mine in Kursk Oblast (Colonelcassad).
Logistics - Ukrainian Needs & Supply:
Aid Delivered (Zaporizhzhia OVA, Apr 20): Officials delivered drones, NVGs, EW signal boosters, antennas, charging stations, generators, Starlinks to frontline troops in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
Drone Deliveries: Drones used for delivering Easter supplies to soldiers (Donetsk OVA, Alex Parker Returns amplification).
Ongoing public fundraising appeals: Powerful EW system for 24th "Aidar" Assault Bn, Mavic 3 drone for 114th Territorial Bde (Operatyvnyi ZSU); EW complexes/antennas for 1st OSHB "Da Vinci Wolves" (DeepState, nearing completion); field camp beds (RBC-Ukraina).
Logistics - Kerch Bridge:Planned closure May 8-10 due to RU security concerns over potential UA strike during May 9 holiday (Operatyvnyi ZSU). Will impact logistics to Crimea.
III. Axis Updates (Focus on Current Claims & Activity during Ceasefire Period)
Overall Frontline Assessment (Apr 20 - Midday):
UA Perspective (Zelenskyy/Syrskyi, DeepState, OSUV Khortytsia, STERNENKO, Bdes): Initial reduction in intensity exploited by RU for logistical/tactical improvements (rotation, resupply, fortification, mining, KIA recovery). Since 10:00 AM Apr 20, significant increase in RU shelling and kamikaze drone attacks (FPVs doubled).26 RU assault actions 00:00-12:00 Apr 20. Most intense RU activity on Pokrovsk and Siversk axes. Fighting ongoing on Toretsk (high intensity), Pokrovsk, Kupyansk axes. Reduced intensity noted on Pokrovsk/Kurakhove, Zaporizhzhia. RU shelling reported on Uspenivka (Pokrovsk axis). OSUV Khortytsia claims RU forces retreating near Kotlyne (Pokrovsk axis) due to losses (Reiterated by Tsaplienko). Ceasefire deemed largely violated by Russia.
RU Perspective (MoD, Milbloggers, Rybar): Claims strict RU adherence but massive UA violations including attempted ground attacks (Sukha Balka, Bohatyr, Popovka-Belgorod), heavy shelling/drone use (444 arty, 900+ UAV). Report relative quiet on some axes earlier but acknowledge ongoing fire exchanges and attempted UA attacks. Refute UA claims of RU strike on Kherson building, claiming it was a UA FPV base. Report relative quiet in Artemivsk (Bakhmut). Expect full resumption of hostilities tonight.
Kursk/Belgorod Axis (Border):
RU Claim: Attempted UA infantry ground attack near Popovka (Krasnoyaruzhsky district, Belgorod) early morning Apr 20 repelled (Dva Mayora).
RU Claim: Interception of UA HIMARS/Vilkha MLRS rockets over Kursk Oblast (NgP raZVedka/Colonelcassad).
RU Claim (Equipment Recovery): Claim recovery of Finnish MPIM Hailstorm mini directional mine in Kursk Oblast (Colonelcassad).
Missile Alert: Signal activated in Kursk morning Apr 20 (Poddubny).
RU MoD: Claims 12 shelling incidents, 33 UAV strikes, 7 munition drops by UA on border regions during ceasefire.
RU MoD (Pre-Ceasefire Claims, Apr 20): Inflicted fire damage on UA units near Gornal. Strikes on UA units near Miropolskoye, Osoyevka, Turya, Mikhaylovskoye, Stepok (Sumy region). Claimed up to 155 UA losses, destruction of 1 RM-70 Vampire MLRS, 2 APCs, 1 AFV, 4 vehicles, 4 arty, 1 Uragan MLRS, 1 EW station. (Note: Cumulative claimed UA losses in this direction are extremely high and likely inflated for propaganda).
RU sources report continued UA drone activity, occasional small arms fire (Arkhangel). STERNENKO Report: RU arty/FPV strikes continue, RU personnel accumulating. Arty overnight in Belgorod, quiet now.
Claimed RU Liberation: Oleshnia (Kursk Obl.) claimed liberated Apr 19 (RU MoD). UA GSh ZSU map confirmed UA territorial loss in Kursk Oblast (Apr 19). RU sources claim Hornal is last UA holdout.
Alleged Mercenary Attack: RU sources maintain claim of repelled UA attack using alleged Colombian mercenaries (Sumy direction) shortly after ceasefire start (Kotsnews/Poddubny).
Akhmat Claim (Kadyrov_95, Apr 20): Claims repelling illegal border crossing, followed by artillery strikes on supporting UA forces.
Kharkiv Axis (OTU Kharkiv / Syniehubov, Apr 20): Night reported relatively calm. Previous day (Apr 19 before 18:00) saw 16 KABs on Kupyansk district, 1 missile on Izium district.
Kupyansk Axis: Fighting ongoing (OSUV Khortytsia). RU Map Update (Rybar, Apr 20): Details claimed RU advances April 13-18: north of Stepova Novoselivka; towards Doroshivka (controlling section of R-79); expanded bridgehead in Kamenka; fighting near Mala Shapkovka/Kondrashovka. Assesses potential threat to UA positions near Novoosinove/Petropavlivka if RU advances from Kolosnykivka-Stepova Novoselivka. RU MoD (Pre-Ceasefire Claims): Strikes near Kupyansk, Smorodkovka, Ivanovka (Kharkiv), Kirovsk, Yampol (Donetsk). Claimed up to 245 UA losses, destruction of 1 Grad MLRS. Previous RU claim (Apr 19) of destroying Oskil reservoir crossing near Horokhovatka.
RU Claim (Novomykhailivka): Liberation claimed pre-ceasefire (RU MoD - Zapad Group). Located N of Katerynivka, NW of Terny. RU sources frame as expanding Zherebets bridgehead for potential Krasnyi Lyman/Slaviansk push (Kotsnews, Poddubny). Claim reiterated post-ceasefire start by Colonelcassad (Apr 20).
RU MoD (Pre-Ceasefire Claims): See Kupyansk Axis (Zapad Group).
RU previously claimed shelling of Kreminna during ceasefire. Previous RU claims of advances near Nove, Torske line.
Siversk Axis:
Increased RU Activity: Reported by Zelenskyy as one of the most active axes post-10AM Apr 20.
Reported quiet earlier by RU source (Arkhangel Spetsnaza/Starshe Eddy).
RU soldiers report from Soledar area, claim UA violations (Arkhangel Spetsnaza video). STERNENKO Report: RU drone finished off wounded RU soldier who hit mine near Soledar.
Kramatorsk Axis (Chasiv Yar Area):
RU Claim: UA forces began shelling outskirts of Chasiv Yar with MLRS and mortars morning Apr 20 (TASS).
RU Claim (Colonelcassad, Apr 20): Reports relative quiet in Artemivsk (Bakhmut) during Easter. Video shared showing destroyed city.
RU MoD (Yug Group - Pre-Ceasefire Claims): Took more advantageous lines. Strikes near Dyleyevka, Konstantinovka, Aleksandro-Shultino, Belaya Gora, Zarya, Aleksandro-Kalinovo, Yablonovka, Kleban-Byk. Claimed up to 310 UA losses.
Reported quiet earlier by RU source (Arkhangel Spetsnaza/Starshe Eddy).
Pokrovsk Axis:
Increased RU Activity / High Intensity: Reported by Zelenskyy as one of the most active axes post-10AM Apr 20. Fighting ongoing, remains most intense direction (OSUV Khortytsia).
UA Claim (OSUV Khortytsia - Tregubov, Apr 20 - Reiterated by Tsaplienko): Despite highest RU effort, RU achieving least success here. Russian forces allegedly retreating near Kotlyne and west of it due to significant losses. (RBC-Ukraina)
DeepState Report (Apr 20): RU artillery shelling reported in Uspenivka area morning Apr 20 during ceasefire.
STERNENKO Report: Intensity of RU shelling decreased during ceasefire period, but isolated FPV/Mavic drops continue.
RU MoD (Tsentr Group - Pre-Ceasefire Claims): Took more advantageous lines. Strikes near Uspenovka, Zverevo, Nadezhdinka, Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk), Petrovskoye, Novopavlovka. Claimed over 420 UA losses.
RU MoD Claim: Liberation of Novomykhailivka occurred before ceasefire (Apr 20 Briefing, attributed to "Zapad" Group). Liberation of Shevchenko claimed Apr 19.
RU MoD Claim: Attempted UA ground attack near Bohatyr repelled during ceasefire.
RU Claim (Map Update, Apr 20): RU source (Colonelcassad/divgen) map claims RU forces entered Myrolyubivka. (Note: DeepState Apr 19 reported RU elements entered but were repelled).
Reported largely quiet earlier by RU source, though occasional UA FPV strikes noted (Arkhangel Spetsnaza/Starshe Eddy).
Captured RU soldier (5th Tank Bde) interviewed from this axis (Butusov Plus).
Kurakhove Direction (Part of Novopavlivsk/South Donetsk):
STERNENKO Report: Intensity of RU shelling decreased during ceasefire period, but isolated FPV/Mavic drops continue.
Toretsk Axis:
Fighting ongoing, high intensity RU drone/arty use persists during ceasefire (OSUV Khortytsia, STERNENKO - 36 shelling incidents recorded, small arms fire).
Alleged Attack on Humanitarian Vehicle (Multiple Confirmations): RU FPV drone(s) allegedly attacked marked "Proliska" vehicle near Zorya (Kostyantynivka area), wounding staffer (E. Tkachev) and civilian evacuee (STERNENKO, Operatyvnyi ZSU, Tsaplienko, ASTRA, RBC-Ukraina).
RU MoD Claim: Attempted UA ground attack near Sukha Balka repelled during ceasefire.
RU Claim (Map Update, Apr 20): RU source (Colonelcassad/divgen) map claims RU advance in Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk), advance near Sukha Balka, and widened control zone near Dyliivka.
Drone Interaction: Report of UA Mavic ramming RU "Baba Yaga" drone on this axis (Colonelcassad).
RU sources claim alleged UA shelling of Horlivka during ceasefire.
Velyka Novosilka Direction (South Donetsk / Vostok Group Area):
RU MoD (Pre-Ceasefire Claims): Advanced further. Strikes near Zelyonoye Pole, Bogatyr, Otradnoye, Poddubnoye. Claimed over 160 UA losses, destruction of 1 Paladin SPG.
RU Claim (Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 20): UA artillery active near Burlatske.
Zaporizhzhia Axis (Dnepr Group Area):
RU MoD (Pre-Ceasefire Claims): Improved tactical situation. Strikes near Novoyakovlevka, Stepnogorsk. Claimed over 100 UA losses.
STERNENKO Report: Reduced intensity RU arty/drone use overnight (Apr 19 20:00 - Apr 20 02:00), few strikes today. BUT: RU heavily using lull for rotation (using white flags/red cross), fortification, resupply close to LBS.
Observation (Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 20 Morning): UA FPV and recon drones active, artillery quiet.
Reported generally quiet earlier by RU source (Arkhangel Spetsnaza/Starshe Eddy).
UA Aid Delivery: Officials visited frontline, delivered drones, NVGs, EW amps, etc. (Zaporizhzhia OVA).
Previous significant UA claim (Apr 19/20): Destruction of RU Buk M3 SAM system.
Kherson Axis:
RU Counter-Claim: RU alleges residential building hit in Kherson was a UA FPV drone launch point, providing purported intercepted drone footage/geolocation (Dva Mayora).
STERNENKO Report: RU using FPV drones, conducting provocations on Dnipro River (attempted landings with 2 boats), 2 arty strikes on Kherson city overnight.
Reported quiet (no ground fighting) earlier by RU source, but UA FPV/Mavic activity observed from west bank (Arkhangel Spetsnaza/Starshe Eddy).
RU sources claim continued UA attacks on Aleshky, Hola Prystan, Kakhovka during ceasefire (Dnevnik Desantnika, RU MoD, Kotsnews).
IV. Capabilities & Logistics Summary
Ukrainian:
Air Defence/EW:Weekly Summary (UA AF): Downed 699 targets (3 Iskander-K, 159 Shahed, 537 other UAVs). Facing persistent RU drone threats (FPV use doubled post-10AM Apr 20 per Zelenskyy). Needs highlighted by fundraising. Received EW amplifiers/antennas (Zaporizhzhia front). RU MoD claims UA lost 1 EW station (Belgorod Dir), 3 EW stations (Yug Group) and 4 EW stations (Dnepr Group) pre-ceasefire.
Air Force:Weekly Summary (UA AF): 140 sorties (80+ CAP, ~50 ground attack/support). Dozens of strikes on RU positions (C2, concentrations).
Drone Capabilities:Weekly Summary (UA AF Drone Units): 515 sorties (399 recon, 116 strike/FPV); claimed destruction of >10 RU personnel, 8 shelters, 2 Supercam, 1 Lancet. Active use reported (Zaporizhzhia, Kherson west bank, border regions). FPV strikes continue (e.g., Butusov Plus video evidence). Drone vs. Drone: Mavic reportedly rammed RU heavy drone (Toretsk). Received drones/accessories (Zaporizhzhia front). Used for morale supply delivery (Donetsk front). Fundraising ongoing. RU MoD claims 88 UA UAVs downed pre-ceasefire and 900+ strikes during ceasefire.
Strike Capabilities: Previous claim of destroying Buk M3 SAM. Alleged strikes claimed by RU (Donetsk, Kreminna, Horlivka, occupied Kherson, border regions - quantified by RU MoD). RU Claim: MLRS strikes attempted on Kursk and Chasiv Yar. RU MoD claims 1 HIMARS projectile intercepted pre-ceasefire.
Artillery/MLRS: RU MoD claims UA lost 4 arty (Belgorod Dir), 3 arty (Kupyansk Dir), 7 arty (Yug Group), 2 arty (Tsentr Group), 3 arty incl. 1 Paladin (Vostok Group) pre-ceasefire. RU MoD claims UA lost 1 RM-70 MLRS (Belgorod Dir) and 1 Grad MLRS (Kupyansk Dir) pre-ceasefire. RU MoD claims 444 UA arty/mortar strikes during ceasefire.
Logistics: Receiving critical supplies (NVGs, generators, Starlinks, etc.) on Zaporizhzhia front via regional support (Zaporizhzhia OVA). Drones used for light logistics (Easter Paska delivery). Fundraising ongoing. RU MoD claims UA lost multiple ammo depots pre-ceasefire. Rotation Plans: UA MoD reportedly planning rotation for long-serving troops, contingent on reserves (RU source Rybar interpretation).
Personnel:Successful POW exchange: 277 returned. Recruitment drive for Naval Infantry (18-24) previously noted. Second Border Guard cadet suicide reported. Morale support evident (Easter celebrations, supply drops, SDF South video). RU MoD claims high UA personnel losses across axes pre-ceasefire (e.g., >420 Tsentr, 310 Yug, 155 Kursk). OSUV Khortytsia claims significant RU losses leading to retreats on Pokrovsk axis.
Russian:
Air Power:Initial absence of KAB/tactical aviation use noted during ceasefire (DeepState), but situation may be changing. Previous high usage rates. Delivered new batch of Su-34s (Apr 19).
Drone Capabilities: Active recon UAVs over Chernihiv (UA AF Report). High volume use claimed by RU MoD (900+ strikes since ceasefire). FPV drone use doubled since 10:00 AM Apr 20 (Zelenskyy report). RU sources report UA drone threat persists despite ceasefire. Needs identified (fundraising appeal for drones - Arkhangel). Heavy drone ("Baba Yaga") reportedly downed by UA Mavic ramming (Toretsk). RU sapper training video shows use of drones for mine detection/recon (Colonelcassad). UA AF claims downing 2 RU Supercam, 1 Lancet (week Apr 14-20).
Ground Forces/Claims: Claimed liberation of Novomykhailivka (pre-ceasefire, Zapad Group, reiterated post-ceasefire). Claimed liberation of Shevchenko (Apr 19), Oleshnia (Apr 19). Map updates claim advances near Redkodub (Lyman), entry into Myrolyubivka (Pokrovsk), advances within Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk), near Sukha Balka and Dyliivka (Toretsk), and on Kupyansk axis. Akhmat unit claims repelling border incursion. Actively using ceasefire lull for rotation, fortification, mining, resupply, KIA recovery (DeepState, 66th Bde, STERNENKO). RU MoD claims advances/improved positions by Yug, Tsentr, Vostok, Dnepr groups pre-ceasefire. 26 RU assaults reported 00:00-12:00 Apr 20 (Zelenskyy). Claimed retreat on Pokrovsk axis near Kotlyne due to losses (UA OSUV Khortytsia).
Logistics:Significant disruption to inland shipping via Don River due to vessel collision blocking Kochetovsky Hydroelectric Complex lock gate (Rostov Oblast). Drone repair capability noted (Colonelcassad). Adaptation: Installing anti-drone protection on North Korean M-1991 MLRS (visually confirmed by UA/RU sources, Alex Parker Returns video). RU sappers training with drones and allegedly recovering foreign mines (Finnish MPIM Hailstorm mini in Kursk - Colonelcassad). Use of modified civilian vehicles (UAZ "Bukhanka" cabriolet) noted (UA source Butusov Plus). Kerch Bridge Closure: Planned May 8-10 closure will impact logistics.
Foreign Equipment:First visual confirmation of North Korean 240mm M-1991 MLRS in service (Operatyvnyi ZSU/Butusov Plus, Dva Mayora confirmation, Alex Parker Returns video). Specs cited: 240mm, 60km range (potentially 80km). Claims of recovering Finnish mines in Kursk Oblast (Colonelcassad).
Morale/IO: Continued focus on Easter celebrations/messages (Kadyrov_95). Heavy emphasis in state media (MoD, TASS, Kotsnews, WarGonzo, etc.) on alleged mass UA ceasefire violations vs strict RU adherence. RU sources circulate video of 155th Naval Infantry sending greetings. Internal Issues: Second public appeal from relatives of missing soldiers (26th Tank Rgt) citing command inaction (ASTRA). Dissemination of POW interview critical of RU command (via UA source Butusov Plus). Report on domestic tragedy affecting soldier's family. Corruption: Arrest of former Kursk official linked to defense fortification fraud (Colonelcassad).
SAM Systems: AD claimed active over Kursk (intercepted MLRS). Previous UA claim of destroying Buk M3 system (Zaporizhzhia).
V. Humanitarian & Ethical Considerations
Ceasefire & Civilian Harm:
Contradictory Claims & Escalation: Russia claims strict adherence while alleging massive Ukrainian violations (444 shelling, 900+ UAV strikes, MLRS on Kursk/Chasiv Yar, ground attacks on Sukha Balka, Bohatyr, Popovka) causing civilian casualties/damage. Ukraine (Zelenskyy, DeepState, Bdes, STERNENKO) notes initial reduced intensity but significant increase in RU shelling/drone use (FPV doubled) and 26 RU assaults since 10:00 AM Apr 20, exploiting the lull for military preparations. Ukraine frames RU actions as violating their own declared ceasefire. DeepState reports RU shelling Uspenivka (Pokrovsk axis) during ceasefire morning. STERNENKO details continued RU arty/drone strikes across multiple axes during ceasefire period.
Specific Incidents (RU Claims during Ceasefire): Strikes alleged on Donetsk City (Kalinin district), Kreminna, Horlivka, occupied Kherson settlements (Aleshky, Hola Prystan, Kakhovka), RU border regions (Bryansk, Kursk, Belgorod). MLRS strikes alleged on Kursk and Chasiv Yar. RU MoD claims civilian deaths/injuries resulted.
Kherson Strike Counter-Claim: RU sources (Dva Mayora) refute claims of striking a civilian residential building, alleging it was a legitimate military target (UA FPV drone base).
Confirmed Attack on Humanitarian Aid (Multiple Sources):RU FPV drone(s) attacked a marked humanitarian vehicle ("Proliska") near Zorya (Kostyantynivka area) during the ceasefire period, wounding aid worker (Evhen Tkachev) and a civilian evacuee (STERNENKO, Operatyvnyi ZSU, Tsaplienko, ASTRA via Radio Svoboda, RBC-Ukraina via Radio Svoboda). Clear violation of LOAC and declared ceasefire.
Impact Pre-Ceasefire:Kharkiv: 17 wounded (incl. children) remain hospitalized from Apr 18 ballistic missile strike. Kupyansk district: Hit by 16 KABs Apr 19 (before 18:00). Izium district: Hit by missile Apr 19 (before 18:00). Four houses destroyed.
Prisoners of War:Significant positive development: 277 Ukrainian soldiers returned in exchange. Previous GUR confirmation of exchange preparations. UA released interview with captured RU soldier detailing harsh conditions. RU sources reiterate mercenaries lack POW status.
KIA Recovery: RU sources claim both sides using white flags for recovery on some sectors but allege UA obstructs RU efforts. UA sources (DeepState, Tsaplienko, STERNENKO) note RU using ceasefire lull to recover KIA, potentially using white flags/red cross markings for cover during rotation/resupply.
Information Environment: Intense IO surrounding ceasefire adherence. RU amplifying claims of mass UA violations. UA (Zelenskyy) directly accusing RU of violating its own ceasefire, documenting breaches, questioning RU intent (PR vs peace). Fox News map error continues to be focal point for UA MFA demands (TASS reports demands), amplified by RU sources; Zelenskyy links error to need for real ceasefire. Dissemination of POW narratives. RU sources highlight US political context, upcoming talks, alleged US lawmaker involvement. UA Rebuttal: Actively countering specific RU video propaganda related to ceasefire violations. RU circulates psych-ops material (decorated bomb, "exposed" Ukrainian). RU Source (Alex Parker Returns) amplifies UA drone delivery video to imply safety.
Personnel Welfare:Return of 277 UA POWs provides relief to families. Second suicide among UA Border Guard cadets. Captured RU soldier testimony (Butusov Plus) highlights fear, heavy losses, alleged command indifference. RU Internal Issues: Second public appeal from relatives of missing RU soldiers (26th Tank Rgt, Kyslivka area) citing 6 months of command inaction (ASTRA). RU report on soldier's family tragedy (Chelyabinsk fire). RU MoD confirms Putin order for psychological rehabilitation for returning soldiers. RU forces reportedly using ceasefire to recover KIA (DeepState, STERNENKO). Corruption: Arrest of former Kursk official linked to defense fortification fraud (Colonelcassad).
Critical Infrastructure: RU vessel collision blocks key shipping channel at Kochetovsky Hydroelectric Complex (Rostov Oblast). Previous reports of significant damage to civilian infrastructure from RU strikes (Kharkiv, Kupyansk, Izium). RU claims UA targeted energy facilities in border regions/occupied areas. Oil spill reported in Sakhalin (RU domestic). Kerch Bridge: Planned closure May 8-10 due to security concerns.
Mine Contamination: RU sources report recovery of alleged Finnish MPIM Hailstorm mini mine in Kursk Oblast (Colonelcassad), alongside showcasing other mines (POM-3, PFM-1). Highlights ongoing mine threat. RU drone reportedly finished off wounded RU soldier who hit a mine (STERNENKO).
