Military Situation Update: Ukraine (Derived from Intelligence up to Fri Apr 18 15:24:00 2025)
I. Major Operational & Strategic Developments
Overall Intensity & Frontlines: Combat operations remain focused on the Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk, Lyman, Kupyansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kursk/Sumy border axes. Russian offensive pressure persists, with continued claimed, often contested, incremental gains. As of 16:00 Apr 18, 65 combat clashes reported across the front (UA General Staff).
Key Russian Claims (Weekly MoD Report, Apr 12-18 & Specific Daily Claims):
Territorial Gains (Weekly): Claimed liberation of Kalynove & Valentynivka (Donetsk Oblast, Toretsk Axis, Yug Group); Yelizavetovka & Preobrazhenka (Donetsk Oblast, Pokrovsk Axis, Tsentr Group). These claims, particularly Yelizavetovka & Preobrazhenka, require independent verification and may conflict with other assessments.RU sources report RU forces consolidating in Kalynove, establishing logistics/comms, preparing push towards Stara Mykolaivka/Kostyantynivka highway (DeepStateUA 15:23).
Territorial Gains (Daily/Specific): Claimed capture of Valentynivka (Toretsk Axis, confirmed by Colonelcassad 12:11); claimed advances near Kotlyarivka, Uspenivka, Lysovka (Kupyansk/Lyman Axis, Z Komitet map update 12:12); approx. 1km advance south of Lozova near Borova (Kharkiv/Lyman Axis, Slivochniy Kapriz claim 12:13); advance in eastern Novoye (Oskil/Lyman Axis, Colonelcassad claim 12:21); claimed advances near Makeevka, Novomykhailivka, Novoye (Lyman axis, Z Komitet map update 12:35); advances near Shevchenko, west of Rozlyv (Novopavlivsk Axis); storming the Matrona Moskovskaya mine area, expanding control north of Novokalynove (Pokrovsk Axis); entering Mala Tokmachka (Zaporizhzhia Axis); capture of Gornalsky Monastery (Kursk Oblast) confirmed by RU sources (Voenkor Kotenok 12:56). Expanded control SE of Bohatyr (Novopavlivsk Axis), capturing 2 UA strongpoints (0.5x1.4km & 0.5x0.4km areas); cleared treeline/height SE of Otradne (Novopavlivsk Axis), claiming 0.5x1.5km breakthrough (Voin DV 13:29). RU forces advancing near Kamyanka (Kharkiv Oblast, Kupyansk Axis) (Z Komitet 14:01). Strike hit UA strongpoint NE of Toretskaya mine; positional fighting on outskirts of Krymske; RU forces advanced 300m and secured positions on outskirts of Svyatoy Matrony Moskovskoy mine (W Toretsk); expanded control by 0.5km N of Druzhba, capturing strongpoint and 2 POWs (Dnevnik Desantnika 13:57). RU claims control of approx. 80% of DNR territory, identifies Kostiantynivka, Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Druzhkivka as remaining major objectives (TASS/Marochko 14:16). NEW CLAIM (RVvoenkor 14:30): RU forces entered Novoye settlement (Lyman Axis), advancing from Katerynivka; ongoing assaults towards Hrekivka, Novomykhailivka, Redkodub, Torske, Yampolivka.
Strikes (Weekly Claim): Claimed 9 group strikes (precision weapons/UAVs) targeting Ukrainian defence industry, airfield infrastructure, depots (weapons, ammo, missiles, UAVs, USVs), UAV training centers, and personnel concentrations (RU MoD Weekly Summary 15:11).
Strikes (Specific Claim Apr 18 Morning / Overnight): Claimed specific group strike targeting key UAV production facilities and military airfield infrastructure. Detailed RU Claim (@don_partizan via Basurin 14:11, Colonelcassad 12:41) alleges series of RU strikes overnight (Apr 17-18) targeting:
Voznesensk Airfield (Mykolaiv Obl.): Iskander-M hit radar/landing systems (RSP-10M), disrupted night ops, UAV base function impacted. (Repeated by Dnevnik Desantnika 13:20).
Kharkiv (Effekt LLC site): Iskander-K hit logistics hub (comms modules, tactical equip packaging, power systems) supporting UAV/comms units. Claimed 3 UA KIA, 4 WIA. Communications warehouse for Kupyansk axis partially disabled. (Dnevnik Desantnika 14:26 repeats claim).
Mykolaiv (Altoris LLC site): Strike destroyed warehouse supporting USVs (nav blocks, batteries, waterproofing, onboard equip). >500 sq m fire. Claimed logistics center for naval sabotage groups.
Sumy (Former bread factory): UAV strikes hit logistics base (power modules, charging stations, signal processing, storage for equipment/FPVs) supporting border drone units. Main building destroyed. (Colonelcassad 13:21 posts imagery claiming this is the site).
Strikes (Specific Claim Apr 18, Toretsk Axis): Claimed Krasnopol-M2 precision munition strike, guided by Orlan-30 UAV, destroyed a UA platoon strongpoint near Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk) (Colonelcassad 14:41).
Strike Claim (Kramatorsk Axis): NEW CLAIM (RVVoenkor 15:11): RU claim Iskander missile strike destroyed US HIMARS MLRS near Serhiivka (Kramatorsk-Druzhkivka direction), alleges up to 8 UA specialists KIA.
Kursk/Sumy Border Operations (Daily Claim Apr 18): RU MoD claims ongoing "neutralisation" of UA formations in Kursk Oblast. Claimed strikes inflicting losses on multiple UA brigades near Hornal & Oleshnia (Kursk Obl.) and UA positions in Sumy Obl. near Belovody, Vodolagi, Krovnoye, Mogritsa, Sadki, Yunakovka, Yablonovka. Claimed >225 UA losses in the area in 24h, 2 BTRs, 1 BBM, 6 vehicles, 1 arty gun, 4 mortars (RU MoD via Colonelcassad 14:04). NEW CLAIM (RU MoD 15:02, Voenkor Kotenok 15:17): RU Artillery units (Sever Group) claim destroying UA sabotage and reconnaissance group (DRG) in Sumy region, detected by UAV. UA GS (16:00 Apr 18) reports repelling 6 RU attacks in Kursk Oblast, 1 ongoing. RU aviation conducted 12 strikes (20 KABs), 134 artillery/mortar attacks on UA positions/settlements in Sumy/Kursk border areas. RU sources claim liberation of Gornalsky Monastery (Kursk), destruction of >200 UA personnel/mercenaries (Voenkor Kotenok 12:56). Claimed Ka-52M helicopter strike hit UA strongpoint in Kursk border area (TASS 13:36). RU details "Potok" operation involving infiltration via pipe (Voenkor Kotenok 14:10).
Personnel/Equipment Losses (Claimed, Weekly, Very High Figures - RU MoD 15:11): >1900 UA losses (Sever Group, Kursk/Belgorod/Kharkiv); >1730 UA losses (Zapad Group, Kupyansk); >2170 UA losses (Yug Group, Toretsk); >2680 UA losses (Tsentr Group, Pokrovsk); >1020 UA losses (Vostok Group, S. Donetsk); >540 UA losses (Dnepr Group, Kherson). Claimed destruction of numerous tanks, AFVs, artillery (incl. Western SPGs), MLRS (incl. HIMARS), EW stations, radars, depots.
Personnel/Equipment Losses (Claimed, Daily/Specific): Claimed 15 UA KIA SE of Bohatyr; >10 UA KIA SE of Otradne; 10 UA KIA + 2 vehicles destroyed near Chervone/Reshetylivske (Novopavlivsk axis) (Voin DV 13:29). Claimed >225 UA losses (Kursk/Sumy border, 24h) (RU MoD via Colonelcassad 14:04). Claimed 8 UA specialists KIA in HIMARS strike (RVVoenkor 15:11).
Personnel/Equipment Losses (Claimed, Cumulative, Kursk Axis): RU MoD claims total UA losses in Kursk direction since start of hostilities exceed 75,000 troops, 410 tanks, 334 IFVs, 307 APCs, 2,278 other AFVs, 57 MLRS (incl. 15 HIMARS), etc. These cumulative figures are exceptionally high and lack independent verification. (Colonelcassad 14:04).
Conscript Losses Claim: ASTRA analysis (via UA project "Khochu Naiti") suggests at least 218 RU conscripts likely killed in action, mostly in Kursk/Belgorod border areas (ASTRA 12:40).
Air Defence Claims (Weekly - RU MoD 15:11): Claimed downing 1 Ukrainian F-16 aircraft, 45 JDAM bombs, 29 HIMARS projectiles, and 1,618 UAVs. The F-16 claim requires independent verification.
Counter-Energy Strikes Claim: RU MoD claims UA conducted 4 attacks on Russian energy facilities in the past 24 hours (Apr 17-18), causing damage/outages in Belgorod, Kursk, Bryansk, Voronezh Oblasts (RVvoenkor 12:27, AV Bogomaz 12:30, Dnevnik Desantnika 12:34, Colonelcassad 13:06, MoD Russia 12:55).
Civilian Vehicle Attack Claim: Claimed UA drone attack damaged moving vehicle near Belgorod, injuring 1 male civilian (TASS/Gladkov 13:14, ASTRA 13:58).
Civilian Damage Blamed on UA AD: RU sources claim civilian damage/casualties in Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Apr 18) resulted from Ukrainian AD intercepting Russian missiles over urban areas (@don_partizan via Basurin 14:11, Colonelcassad 12:41).
Alleged UA Easter Provocation (RU Claim): NEW CLAIM (TASS 15:08): RU source (Ganchev) alleges UA preparing provocation in non-liberated parts of Kharkiv Oblast ahead of Easter to discredit RU forces.
Ukrainian Structural Reform & Preparedness:
General Staff confirms ongoing reorganization of military command system, including manning, equipping, and training of newly formed Army Corps.
Leadership Change: Lt. Col. Bohdan "Puhach" Hrishenkov appointed new commander of the 12th Special Purpose Brigade "Azov" NGU.
National Resistance Centers: Plans confirmed to establish centers in each oblast to prepare the civilian population for national resistance. RU source commentary notes this plan (Dnevnik Desantnika 12:43).
Student Military Training: Minister of Education Lisovyi states 75-80,000 university students will undergo basic military training; 130 million UAH allocated for 2025 program (Operatyvnyi ZSU 12:47).
Personnel Change (MOD): Ivan Havryliuk dismissed from the post of First Deputy Minister of Defence.
Kyiv Emergency Response Coordination: Kyiv City Military Administration (KMVA) held meeting with district heads, officials, SES to improve coordination for liquidating consequences of attacks and damage repair (KMVA 13:14).
Potential Demobilization: First Deputy Minister of Defence Havryliuk stated demobilization of soldiers serving since 2022 is possible, requires accumulating personnel reserves and preparing replacements, linking hopes to the "18-24" contract program (Tsaplienko 14:13, 14:26, Shef Hayabusa 14:50).
Military Innovation Focus: International Academic Forum "Military Innovations in Modern Wars" held in Kyiv under CinC Syrskyi's auspices. Emphasized technologies (UAVs, AI, digital platforms), asymmetric warfare, cognitive ops. Involved UA military leadership, MoD, government, industry, international partners (GSh ZSU 14:31, 15:19).
RU Tactic Adaptation (Alleged): RU sources claim UA command issued order prohibiting stationing personnel in civilian facilities near the border due to recent successful RU strikes on such locations (NgP Razvedka 14:18). Requires verification.
Easter Security Measures (Kharkiv): NEW UPDATE (Kharkiv OVA 15:04): Kharkiv Defence Council met; security measures strengthened for Easter. >800 police + ~100 NGU personnel on 24/7 duty near public places/churches. Curfew duration remains unchanged. Public urged to be vigilant, heed air raid warnings, avoid crowds.
Mobilization Extended: Martial law and general mobilization in Ukraine formally extended by presidential decree until August 6, 2025.
SBU/National Police report liquidation of draft evasion schemes.
Drone Policing: National Police in Zaporizhzhia using drones for park patrols.
Mobilization Incidents:
Kyiv: Kyiv City TCC confirms altercation where civilian allegedly used gas spray and provoked fight during document check, then fled with help from other civilians interfering with police (RBC-Ukraina 13:43). RU source previously posted video alleging TCC forced mobilization attempt in Kharkiv thwarted by wife (Colonelcassad 12:41).
RU IO Claim: RU source alleges UA TCC check people against lists of those who paid bribes to avoid mobilization (RVvoenkor 13:07).
Air & Missile Threats:
Threat Status (15:24 UTC): Threat cleared (UA AF 14:47 UTC). Previously (14:54-15:00 UTC), Hostile UAV detected in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast heading towards Dnipro city, warnings issued (UA AF 14:52, 14:54, 15:00; Nikolaevskiy Vanek 14:59). Earlier speed target over Mykolaiv Oblast moving NE towards Apostolove/Zelenodolsk/Dnipro intercepted/missed (~14:36-14:49, 15:11 UTC, Nikolaevskiy Vanek). Tactical aviation threat (KABs) previously active for South-East (~14:11 UTC). Previous KAB threat for Donetsk (~13:26 UTC), Kharkiv/Sumy (~13:03, 12:37, 12:12 UTC). Previous ballistic threat for East/Zaporizhzhia (~12:24-12:59 UTC). Air Alert Active (Zaporizhzhia Oblast communities excl. city) (OVA 14:10).
Persistent high levels of Russian air and missile activity observed. Tactical aviation remains active (NE, SE, E), posing air-launched weapon threat. Ongoing Russian reconnaissance UAV activity reported.
RU Strike Tactic Analysis: Aviation expert V. Romanenko details RU tactic using sequential Iskander ballistic missiles: first with unitary warhead, followed quickly by a cluster munition variant targeting responders (RBC-Ukraina 12:37).
Major Strikes & Consequences:
Sumy City (Apr 18): 1 civilian KIA reported from RU strike on confectionery workshop. RU sources claim military logistics/drone hub (Basurin/Don Partizan 14:11, Colonelcassad 12:41, 13:21 posts imagery).
Kharkiv City (Apr 18): UPDATED Toll - 1 civilian KIA, 102 WIA (incl. 8 children) from RU ballistic missile strike (reported Iskander-K cluster type) (Prosecutor General 14:03, Operatyvnyi ZSU 13:04, RBC-Ukraina 13:06, ASTRA 13:08, Zelenskyy 15:21). Significant damage to residential buildings, 4 educational institutions, 25 vehicles. President Zelenskyy states one missile detonated over residential area, another hit enterprise near housing. RU sources claim military target (logistics hub at Effekt LLC site), blame UA AD for civilian damage (Basurin/Don Partizan 14:11, Colonelcassad 12:41, Dnevnik Desantnika 14:26). RU sources report casualties due to alleged poor decisions/ignoring orders at a school housing personnel (Alex Parker Returns 12:57 - low confidence source/claim). RU MoD claims strike hit key UAV production sites / airfield infrastructure (ASTRA 13:08).
Kursk City, Russia (Apr 18, morning): Explosion reported coinciding with Ukrainian ballistic missile threat warnings. Requires verification.
Lomakovka, Bryansk Oblast, Russia (Apr 18): RU Gov claims repeated UA mortar/drone attacks destroyed house, wounded 1 civilian.
Near Belgorod, Russia (Apr 18): RU Gov claims UA drone attacked moving car, wounding 1 male civilian (TASS/Gladkov 13:14, ASTRA 13:58).
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Apr 18): RU sources claim damage to civilian infrastructure resulted from falling debris of UA-intercepted Iskander-K missiles (@don_partizan via Basurin 14:11, Colonelcassad 12:41).
Diplomatic & Political:
Ceasefire Stance / Negotiations: RU UN Rep Nebenzya stated ceasefire currently "unrealistic." Peskov reiterated energy strike moratorium expired, stated Putin gave no new instructions regarding it (Alex Parker 13:46). UPDATE (Bloomberg via multiple sources 13:18-14:24): US reportedly presented proposals to allies in Paris for UA-RU peace deal, including easing sanctions on Russia in return for lasting ceasefire. Proposal allegedly freezes conflict lines, leaves occupied territories under Moscow control (without official recognition), and removes Ukraine's NATO membership aspirations from discussion. European allies reportedly view freeze as temporary, not final settlement, and do not recognize occupied territories as Russian. US SecState Rubio stated US patience on mediation efforts is limited, seeking progress within days/weeks (ASTRA 14:00, STERNENKO 14:05, Voenkor Kotenok 14:10, Poddubny 14:23, TASS 14:24). UA Political analyst Saakyan analysis suggests Rubio's statement implies a US desire to achieve a ceasefire deal quickly from a position of strength, creating a political win before potential complications (RBC-Ukraina 14:52). RU Information Operation: RU sources anticipate talks failing and are preparing narratives blaming UA/US intransigence (specifically Zelenskyy & Trump admin), citing RU preconditions (control over occupied regions, UA elections) as non-negotiable (Operatyvnyi ZSU 14:26, RBC-Ukraina/Verstka 15:16).
Sanctions (Ukraine vs China): President Zelenskyy signed decree imposing sanctions on 3 Chinese enterprises (Beijing Aviation And Aerospace Xianghui Technology Co. Ltd, Zhongfu Shenying Carbon Fiber Xining Co. Ltd, Rui Jin Machinery Co. Ltd) and 39 associated executives/businessmen, alongside 20 Russian individuals and 57 Russian enterprises (RBC-Ukraina 13:11, Zelenskyy 15:21). MFA tasked to discuss similar sanctions with EU/US. Zelenskyy noted these entities are involved in production of Iskander missiles used against Kharkiv, stated work will continue with partners to synchronize sanctions. RU commentary frames this as a "trade war," notes potential impact on Chinese drone component supply to Ukraine (Kotsnews 13:41). RU Claim (Alex Parker 14:19): Speculation that China sends soldiers to Ukraine to prepare for Taiwan invasion (sourced to Gordon Chang opinion piece in The Hill). Assessment: Highly speculative claim from known biased source.
Financial Aid: Japan to provide Ukraine $3 billion loan via G7 ERA program, to be repaid using profits from frozen Russian assets (STERNENKO 12:39, Operatyvnyi ZSU 12:59).
Russian Internal Issues:
Manpower/Morale: Alleged testimony from RU POW (Vadim Dyakonov, 810th Naval Inf Bde) claims lack of wounded evacuation, being sent back to combat wounded, presence of blocking detachments ("zagradotryady") (Operatyvnyi ZSU 13:53). Video surfaces of RU soldier ("Vorchun") complaining about being sent to frontlines without weapons, told to take from KIAs, accusing commanders of incompetence/collusion (Butusov Plus 13:07). Analysis suggests at least 218 RU conscripts killed (ASTRA 12:40). Report of soldier from Sbega (Zabaykalsky Krai) disappearing after recording video accusing commanders of planning to kill him for refusing assault orders (Sever.Realii 13:29). Ongoing corruption probes. Draft Evasion: Report of defendant signing military contract then deserting before deployment (Mobilizatsiya Novosti 14:21).
Logistical Challenges: Ongoing volunteer crowdfunding persists. Sewing workshop preparing May shipment (Colonelcassad 12:01). Volunteer Support: Groups providing camouflage nets, food, clothing, 3D-printed anti-drone bullets, tires, drone detectors, "Romashka 6" EW systems; specific mention of support for 126th Coastal Guard in Kherson (Dva Maiora 14:45). Fundraising appeals for drones active (Dva Maiora 14:53, 15:04).
Future Threat Assessment (RU Perspective): RU milblogger channels discuss expected post-conflict threats (intel, destabilization, partisan/terror groups, tech leverage) and need for adaptation (legal, inter-agency coordination, Spetsnaz skills) (Arkangel Spetsnaza, Dva Maiora, Rybar 12:26-12:51). Igor Strelkov (Girkin) expresses pessimism about Russia's ability to prepare for future challenges (Strelkov 14:25).
Internal Politics/Society: MinJust labels more individuals/entities "foreign agents" (journalists Babloyan, Shiryaev; bloggers Shpak, Chistyakova) (TASS 14:07, Sever Realii 14:05, ASTRA 14:03). RU source highlights comments from Uzbek diaspora leader in Moscow about cultural "expansion" causing backlash (Operatsiya Z 13:55). Incident involving Tajik migrant allegedly desecrating Orthodox symbols near Easter in St. Petersburg under investigation (Arkangel Spetsnaza 14:10). Kadyrov protests alleged ban on public prayers in Stavropol Krai, citing discrimination against Muslims and undermining Putin's emphasis on unity/respect for Islam (Kadyrov_95 15:01). Internal debate on alleged "crossfall" (removal/desecration of Orthodox symbols) framed by some as part of a campaign to erase Orthodox identity, potentially facilitating Islamization (Alex Parker 15:18).
Other:
Train Fire (Ukraine): Fire reported on Sumy-Kyiv train near Putyvl station. 1 railway worker KIA, passengers safe. Train movement continued with delays after detaching affected carriages (RBC-Ukraina 14:45, video 15:02).
II. Frontline Updates (Selected Axes - Incorporating UA GS 16:00 Apr 18 Report & New Claims)
Contrasting RU Claims: RU claims advances near Mala Tokmachka (entering settlement) and Mali Shcherbaky. RU MoD Weekly Summary claims >540 UA losses for Dnepr Group (inc. this axis) (RU MoD 15:11).
UA GS Report (16:00 Apr 18):
Orikhiv: 1 RU attack repelled near Shcherbaky. RU air strikes near Novodanylivka, Mahdalynivka, Stepnohirsk. No ground clashes reported currently.
Huliaipole: No ground clashes reported. RU air strikes (unguided rockets) on Huliaipole, Malynivka. No ground clashes reported currently.
Other RU Claims: Strike near Novodanylivka, strikes on Bilenke, Prymorske, Stepnohirsk.
B. Novopavlivsk Axis / South Donetsk
RU Claims: Claims of advances persist. RU MoD (Vostok Group) claims continued advance. RU sources claim destruction of UA BMP-2/personnel near Otradne. Claimed expanded control SE of Bohatyr, capturing 2 UA strongpoints (0.5x1.4km & 0.5x0.4km areas, claimed 15 UA KIA); cleared treeline/height SE of Otradne, claiming 0.5x1.5km breakthrough (claimed >10 UA KIA) (Voin DV 13:29). Claimed 3 UA counter-attacks repelled. Claimed disruption of UA rotation near Chervone/Reshetylivske (2 vehicles, 10 UA KIA). Fierce battles claimed N of Vesele/Dniprenerhiya (Vremivka direction). RU Info Op: Video allegedly shows civilian evacuation from Kostyantynopil, claiming residents awaited RU arrival and UA forces fired on evacuees despite RU EW cover (Kotsnews 13:02). RU MoD Weekly Summary claims >1020 UA losses for Vostok Group (RU MoD 15:11).
UA GS Report (16:00 Apr 18):5 RU attacks repelled total. Ongoing attempts near Kostyantynopil, Vilne Pole, and towards Otradne (1 clash ongoing). RU air strikes on Zelene Pole, Myrne, Novopil.
C. Toretsk Axis (Konstantinovskoe Napravlenie)
RU Claimed Advance & Consolidation: RU MoD Weekly Summary claims capture of Valentynivka and Kalynove (RU MoD 15:11). RU sources claim advances towards Highway N-20 and Sukha Balka. Valentynivka confirmed captured by RU sources (Colonelcassad 12:11). Strike hit UA strongpoint NE of Toretskaya mine (claiming continued UA control there); positional fighting on outskirts of Krymske; RU forces advanced 300m and secured positions on outskirts of Svyatoy Matrony Moskovskoy mine (W Toretsk); expanded control by 0.5km N of Druzhba, capturing strongpoint and 2 POWs; continued artillery preparation in E Druzhba (Dnevnik Desantnika 13:57). NEW CLAIM (Colonelcassad 14:41): Claimed Krasnopol-M2 precision artillery strike, guided by Orlan-30 UAV, destroyed UA platoon strongpoint near Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk). NEW RU ASSESSMENT (TASS 14:59): Russian sources state capture of Kalynove will facilitate faster advance towards Kostiantynivka. NEW REPORT (DeepStateUA 15:23): RU forces are consolidating in Kalynove, bringing in infantry, setting up logistics/comms, and preparing for push towards Stara Mykolaivka and Kostyantynivka highway. High RU drone activity reported by UA troops, reaching Kostyantynivka.
Other RU Claims: Strike near Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk), strikes near Kalynove. RU MoD Weekly Summary claims >2170 UA losses for Yug Group (inc. this axis) (RU MoD 15:11).
D. Pokrovsk Axis
Intensity: Remains the highest intensity axis. RU MoD Weekly Summary claims liberation of Yelizavetovka & Preobrazhenka (RU MoD 15:11 - unverified).
UA GS Report (16:00 Apr 18):24 RU attacks since start of day. Attacks repelled near Tarasivka, Novotoretske, Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Uspenivka, Novooleksandrivka, Bohdanivka, Andriivka, and towards Oleksandropol, Myrolyubivka. 2 clashes ongoing. UA forces holding the line.
UA Action: UA 93rd Mech Bde (Black Ravens unit) reported participating in repelling RU mechanized assault (yesterday), hitting 3 RU vehicles, personnel, UAZ "Bukhanka" with donated drones (Sternenko 13:21). Reinforced Drone Effectiveness: UA 425th OShP "SKALA" reports effective use of FPV drones against daily RU assaults through treelines, inflicting casualties (Butusov Plus 14:42).
Previous RU Claims: Storming Matrona Moskovskaya mine area, expanding control N of Novokalynove. High UA drone activity acknowledged by RU sources. RU MoD Weekly Summary claims >2680 UA losses for Tsentr Group (RU MoD 15:11).
Previous UA Action: UA 53rd Mech Bde fiber-optic drone strike. UA 108th OShB UGV strike.
Civilian Situation: Video depicts civilian conditions in Pokrovsk (Tsaplienko 13:57).
E. Kupyansk / Lyman / Oskil Axis
UA Defensive Success: UA 3rd Assault Brigade reports repelling RU mechanized attack (2 BMPs, buggy, infantry) on Kharkiv/Luhansk border, inflicting 8 RU KIA, 7 WIA, destroying/damaging vehicles (Tsaplienko 12:20, Butusov Plus 12:27). UA forces repelled RU assault near Vovchansk (Kharkiv Oblast), destroying several BMPs and infantry groups (OTU Kharkiv 13:56).
NEW CLAIM (RVvoenkor 14:30): RU forces entered Novoye settlement (Lyman Axis), advancing from Katerynivka; ongoing assaults towards Hrekivka, Novomykhailivka, Redkodub, Torske, Yampolivka.
Advances claimed near Makeevka, Novomykhailivka, Novoye (Lyman axis, Z Komitet map 12:35).
Advances claimed near Kotlyarivka, Uspenivka, Lysovka (Z Komitet 12:12).
Approx. 1 km advance south of Lozova near Borova claimed (Slivochniy Kapriz 12:13).
Advance in eastern Novoye claimed (Colonelcassad 12:21).
RU Zapad Group claims taking advantageous lines. LMUR strike claimed (Apr 16/17). RU MoD Weekly Summary claims >1730 UA losses for Zapad Group (RU MoD 15:11).
RU forces advancing near Kamyanka (Kharkiv Oblast, Kupyansk Axis) (Z Komitet 14:01).
Confirmed Action: UA drone destroyed RU tank near Kreminna (Apr 16/17). RU motorcycle assaults targeted by UA 77th Airmobile / 10th Mountain Brigades (Butusov Plus 13:52). UA 77th Airmobile Brigade reports destroying 7 RU motorcycles and 7 personnel during failed RU assault attempt (Operatyvnyi ZSU 14:56).
F. Kursk/Sumy Border Zone
Ground Combat & Claims: Intensity remains high.
UA GS Report (16:00 Apr 18):6 RU attacks repelled, 1 ongoing. RU forces conducted 12 air strikes (20 KABs) and 134 artillery/mortar attacks on UA positions and settlements (Prokhody, Prohres, Studenok, Sosnivka, Zarutske, Popivka, Shalyhyne, Vasylivske, Uhroidy, Turya, Krasnopillya, Petrushivka, Mala Rybytsia).
RU Claims: Ongoing "neutralisation" ops. Strikes claimed near Hornal, Oleshnia (Kursk) & Sumy Oblast settlements (Belovody, Vodolagi, Krovnoye, Mogritsa, Sadki, Yunakovka, Yablonovka). >225 UA losses claimed in 24h (RU MoD 14:04). Claimed capture of Gornalsky Monastery (Kursk) (Voenkor Kotenok 12:56). Akhmat unit claims repelled UA forces (Belgorod). Drone strike claimed (Belgorod). Claimed Ka-52M strike on UA strongpoint in Kursk border area (TASS 13:36). RU details "Potok" operation involving infiltration via pipe (Voenkor Kotenok 14:10). RU MoD Weekly Summary claims >1900 UA losses for Sever Group (RU MoD 15:11). NEW CLAIM (RU MoD 15:02, Voenkor Kotenok 15:17): RU Artillery units (Sever Group) claim destroying UA sabotage and reconnaissance group (DRG) in Sumy region, detected by UAV.
Prisoners of War / Body Exchange:
RU MoD claims 64 UA POWs captured by "Sever" Group (past week) (RU MoD 15:11).
UA Coordination Staff met families of 71st Jaeger Brigade POWs/MIAs and 36th Marine Brigade (Mariupol defenders) (Coord Staff 14:54).
Exchange of Fallen: Ukraine confirms return of 909 fallen defenders. Russia confirms receiving 41 bodies (multiple RU sources). DeepStateUA notes high UA number possibly due to RU advances over areas with unrecovered bodies. RU sources reiterate numbers, frame ratio as evidence of RU success/UA disregard for losses (Alex Parker Returns 13:10, WarGonzo 13:16, Poddubny 13:33).
Potential POW Exchange: Rumors of large 400-for-400 exchange planned for April 20, allegedly mediated by UAE (Colonelcassad 13:51, Alex Parker 13:56). UA sources anticipate exchanges in coming days, possibly starting morning of April 20 (Shef Hayabusa 14:53).
G. Kherson Axis (Left Bank / Prydniprovsky)
UA Assessment (Southern Command Spokesperson Voloshyn 13:51): RU creating "dead zone" along Dnipro right bank through intensified shelling, particularly Kherson city. Claimed daily RU use of up to 220 kamikaze drones alongside regular bombing strikes.
UA Strike Claim: UA Navy forces claim strike on RU dugout/HMG on Kherson islands (Operatyvnyi ZSU 12:29).
UA GS Report (16:00 Apr 18):
Prydniprovsky: No ground clashes reported currently. RU air strike on Mykolaivka.
Previous Reports: Ongoing clashes, limited RU ground attacks repelled. RU drone strike confirmed destroying UA YPR-765 APC in Beryslav (Right Bank). RU MoD Weekly Summary claims >540 UA losses for Dnepr Group (RU MoD 15:11).
III. Capabilities & Logistics
Ukrainian Force Structure & Capabilities:
Ongoing reorganization and formation/equipping/training of new Army Corps.
Planned National Resistance Centers in each oblast. Student Military Training: 75-80k university students to undergo basic military training (130m UAH budget for 2025).
Military Innovation Focus: International forum held in Kyiv emphasized integration of technology (UAVs, AI, C2 platforms), asymmetric warfare concepts, cognitive operations (GSh ZSU 14:31, 15:19).
Recruitment efforts ongoing (95th DShV Brigade highlights individual recruit motivation - DShV ZSU 12:48; General Staff promotes "Contract 18-24" with focus on motivation - GSh ZSU 13:58). Potential linkage of recruitment success to future demobilization possibility (Tsaplienko 14:13, 14:26, Shef Hayabusa 14:50).
Successful use of FPV drones confirmed (Zaporizhzhia, Pokrovsk). FPV drone induced RU surrender reported. 93rd Mech Bde FPVs hit 3 RU vehicles, UAZ during mechanized assault repel (Pokrovsk, Sternenko 13:21). 425 OShP "SKALA" uses FPVs effectively against RU assaults (Pokrovsk, Butusov Plus 14:42). Unit "Phoenix" FPV strikes reported targeting 9 RU trucks in Belgorod Oblast (Sternenko 14:41).
Motorcycle Assaults Countered: UA 77th Airmobile / 10th Mountain Brigades demonstrate successful targeting of RU motorcycle assault groups (Butusov Plus 13:52). UA 77th Airmobile Brigade reports destroying 7 RU motorcycles and 7 personnel during failed RU assault attempt (Operatyvnyi ZSU 14:56).
Claim: Southern Defense Forces downed 3 RU recon UAVs using FPV interceptors over Dnipro.
New Capability: 53rd Mech Bde demonstrated fiber-optic guided drone strike.
New Capability: 108th OSHB demonstrated ground robotic complex (UGV) strike.
SBU Cyber Dept demonstrated effective drone use (Zaporizhzhia).
Police in Zaporizhzhia using surveillance drones.
UA Navy claim strike on RU position (Kherson islands).
Mortar Capabilities: Presidential Brigade showcases coordinated work of 120mm mortar crews (range up to 7-8 km) for fire support, destroying shelters/equipment, disrupting assaults (Pres. Bde ZSU 14:02).
Crowdfunding & External Aid: Unit of NGU "Rubizh" Brigade seeks 450k UAH for equipment/vehicle repair (RBC-Ukraina 12:47). 93rd Brigade crowdfunding for drones (Sternenko 13:21). 42nd Mech Bde received donated laptop and tires (Butusov Plus 14:37). Czech/Slovak volunteers acquired 254x 122mm artillery shells for Ukraine (Shef Hayabusa 14:36).
Anti-USV Operations: Claimed Mi-8 helicopter using NVD/GOES destroyed UA USV at night with machine gun fire (Dva Maiora 14:46).
Precision Artillery: Claimed use of Krasnopol-M2 laser-guided artillery shell guided by Orlan-30 UAV to destroy UA strongpoint (Toretsk axis) (Colonelcassad 14:41).
Precision Strike: Claimed Iskander strike destroyed US HIMARS (RVvoenkor 15:11). Claimed Lancet strike destroyed Israeli RADA ieMHR radar (Colonelcassad 15:23).
Persistent reliance on volunteer support (thermal fabric, Mavic drones, vehicles). Specific Volunteer Efforts: Providing camouflage nets, food, clothing, 3D-printed anti-drone bullets, tires, drone detectors, "Romashka 6" EW systems; mentions support for 126th Coastal Guard in Kherson (Dva Maiora 14:45). Volunteer groups fundraising for drones (Dva Maiora 14:53, 15:04).
New FPV Control Technology: RU sources promote "Orbita" system for remote FPV control (e.g., Moscow to Chasiv Yar) via mouse, potentially reducing training/risk. Reportedly tested by "Espanola" commander. Discussion on applications/challenges (Dva Maiora 12:51).
Intensified Drone Use (Kherson & Toretsk): UA claims RU using up to 220 kamikaze drones daily on Prydniprovsky axis (Voloshyn 13:51). High RU drone activity reported near Kalynove/Toretsk axis, reaching Kostyantynivka, including crews previously fighting on Kursk axis (DeepStateUA 15:23).
Motorcycle Assault Tactic: Continued use observed, particularly in Kursk/Sumy border and potentially other axes. Targeted effectively by UA drones/artillery (Butusov Plus 13:52, Operatyvnyi ZSU 14:56).
Potential Supply Chain Vulnerability (China): RU commentary highlights potential negative impact on RU access to Chinese drone components if China retaliates against recent UA sanctions (Kotsnews 13:41). Expert commentary notes difficulty proving direct Chinese artillery supply due to similarity with Soviet designs (RBC-Ukraina 15:19).
European Support Assessment (RU Perspective): RU milbloggers assess diminishing European willingness/capacity to sustain UA aid if US withdraws, noting UK/France as exceptions. Discussion on UA manpower depletion (various categories claimed exhausted), reliance on mercenaries, and potential forced deportation of UA draft evaders from Europe (Dva Maiora 13:59).
Russian Manpower/Internal Issues: Recruitment targeting indebted students. Legal aid for draft evaders. Corruption probes ongoing. Severe commander abuse alleged (810th Naval Inf Bde POW Vadim Dyakonov testimony via Operatyvnyi ZSU 13:53). Criminal cases against personnel. Min. 218 RU conscripts likely killed (ASTRA 12:40). Video evidence of RU soldier complaining about lack of weapons/poor leadership (Butusov Plus 13:07). Report of soldier disappearing after accusing commanders of planning to kill him for refusing orders (Sever.Realii 13:29). Draft Evasion: Report of Krasnoyarsk Krai defendant signing contract then fleeing before deployment (Mobilizatsiya Novosti 14:21).
NATO Posture: NATO modernizing Suwalki Corridor infrastructure (LT-PL road, checkpoints, barriers) due to perceived RU threat (Politico via Tsaplienko 15:23).
IV. Humanitarian & Ethical Considerations
Civilian Casualties:
Sumy (Apr 18): 1 Civilian KIA (RU strike on workshop).
Kharkiv (Apr 18): UPDATED - 1 KIA, 102 WIA (incl. 8 children) from RU ballistic missile strike (Prosecutor General 14:03, Zelenskyy 15:21). RU sources blame UA AD intercepts. President Zelenskyy condemns strike timing (Good Friday).
Near Belgorod, RU (Apr 18): 1 Civilian WIA claimed from UA drone attack on car (ASTRA 13:58).
Lomakovka, Bryansk Oblast, RU (Apr 18): 1 Civilian WIA claimed from repeated UA attacks.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Apr 18): RU sources claim civilian property damage from falling debris of intercepted missiles.
Pokrovsk: Video highlights civilian conditions (Tsaplienko 13:57).
Repatriation of Fallen Soldiers: Ukraine confirms return of 909 fallen defenders. Exchange reported by both sides, RU sources consistently claim receiving 41 bodies in return. High disparity noted, RU sources frame ratio as sign of their success (Poddubny 13:33).
Prisoners of War / Detainees:
Focus on Azov POWs facing RU "criminal cases".
UA Coordination Staff meeting with families of 71st Jaeger Brigade POWs/MIAs and 36th Marine Brigade (Mariupol defenders) discussing negotiations, support, and countering RU disinformation (Coord Staff 14:54).
Russian MoD claims 64 UA POWs captured (Kursk/Sumy border) over the week (RU MoD 15:11).
Capture/trial of Australian national (Oskar Jenkins) by LNR authorities confirmed.
Potential Large POW Exchange: Rumors of 400-for-400 exchange planned for April 20, allegedly mediated by UAE (Colonelcassad 13:51, Alex Parker 13:56). UA sources anticipate exchanges in coming days, possibly starting morning of April 20 (Shef Hayabusa 14:53).
Report/video of RU POW (Vadim Dyakonov, 810th Naval Inf Bde) alleging lack of wounded evacuation, being sent back to combat wounded, and use of blocking detachments (Operatyvnyi ZSU 13:53).
Casualty Estimates (Non-Official / Biased): BBC/Mediazona investigation estimates >103,000 RU military deaths. RU MoD claims extremely high weekly UA losses (lacking verification) across all axes (RU MoD 15:11). RU MoD claims >225 UA losses (Kursk, 24h) and >75,000 total (lacking verification) (Colonelcassad 14:04). UA 3rd Assault Brigade claims 8 RU KIA, 7 WIA (Kharkiv/Luhansk border). Voin DV claims 15 UA KIA (Bohatyr SE) and >10 UA KIA (Otradne SE), 10 UA KIA (Chervone/Reshetylivske). UA 77th Airmobile Bde claims 7 RU KIA (motorcycle assault). ASTRA claims min. 218 RU conscripts killed. RU source (Arkangel Spetsnaza 13:34) posts video claiming to show UA KIAs after failed assault (location/details unclear). RVvoenkor claims 8 UA specialists KIA in HIMARS strike (15:11).
Draft Evasion/Mobilization Issues: UA authorities disrupted schemes. Incidents involving TCC personnel reported (Kyiv - civilian allegedly used gas spray/fled, Kharkiv - alleged). RU IO claim of TCC checking names against bribe lists (RVvoenkor 13:07). RU draft evader reportedly signed contract then fled (Mobilizatsiya Novosti 14:21).
Illegal Logging Investigation: UA Prosecutor General investigates illegal logging in protected Carpathian forests (Shipot forestry, Zakarpattia), allegedly for road construction under a permit issued by state enterprise "Forests of Ukraine" despite area's protected status. Criminal proceedings initiated (Prosecutor General 13:00).
Easter Safety Warnings (Zaporizhzhia & Kharkiv): UGCC Exarch Maksym Ryabukha urges faithful to avoid mass gatherings during Easter (Apr 20) due to constant threat, advises celebrating at home with family, supporting defenders (Zaporizhzhia OVA 14:05). Kharkiv authorities announce enhanced security measures for Easter, increased patrols near churches, urge vigilance (Kharkiv OVA 15:04). RU source alleges UA preparing Easter provocation in Kharkiv Oblast (TASS 15:08).
Transport Incident: Fire on Sumy-Kyiv train near Putyvl resulted in 1 railway worker KIA. Passengers safe, but disruption to rail transport (RBC-Ukraina 14:45, video 15:02).
Russian Internal Issues & Economic Strain: Kursk authorities state insufficient funds for compensating residents for damages from shelling (vehicles, livestock, property, business support), citing large federal budget deficit and prioritizing evacuation/infrastructure repair (ASTRA 14:55).
