Military Situation Update: Ukraine (Analysis based on intelligence received by Tue Apr 15 13:15:48 2025)
I. Major Updates
Diplomacy / International Relations / Policy
US Position on Sumy Strike Condemnation: Multiple sources (Bloomberg via ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Оперативний ЗСУ, RBC-Україна, ASTRA, STERNENKO, Colonelcassad, ТАСС, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦) confirm the United States informed G7 allies it would not support a joint statement condemning the recent deadly Russian missile strike on Sumy. The rationale cited is the desire to maintain diplomatic channels and space for potential peace negotiations with Moscow. Canada reportedly initiated the proposed statement. This indicates a significant divergence within the G7 regarding public condemnation versus maintaining diplomatic flexibility, with Russian sources highlighting this division.
EU Aid Modification: The proposal by Estonian PM Kaja Kallas for a new €40 billion financial aid tranche for Ukraine reportedly failed to gain sufficient support among key EU allies (TASS). Russian sources (Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны) claim the proposal was subsequently reduced to €5 billion, specifically earmarked for ammunition procurement.
Polish/Czech Push for Russian Diplomat Travel Ban: Poland and Czechia are reportedly lobbying within the EU to impose a ban on the movement of Russian diplomats within the Schengen Area. The justification is the alleged use of diplomatic missions as cover for intelligence and sabotage activities. (Оперативний ЗСУ)
Russia-Indonesia Relations: Russian official Manturov met with the President of Indonesia in Jakarta to discuss bilateral cooperation, indicating ongoing Russian diplomatic efforts outside Western blocs. (ТАСС)
Russian Stance on Energy Strikes: Kremlin spokesperson Peskov stated Russia is observing a moratorium on strikes against Ukrainian energy infrastructure, while claiming Ukraine violates it daily. He noted the end date of the Russian moratorium would be clarified with the MoD. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
Ukrainian Ambassador on German Weapons: Addressing German media reports about technical issues with supplied weapons, Ukrainian Ambassador to Germany Oleksiy Makeiev stated this is part of a normal feedback and improvement process during wartime, not an indication of "unsuitable weapons." (РБК-Україна)
China's Stance on POWs: China's MFA addressed requests regarding Chinese nationals held as POWs in Ukraine, stating security warnings were issued, the situation is being verified, and individuals' conduct under law will be considered. China urged parties to respect its "objective and fair position." (РБК-Україна)
Poland's Position on Reconstruction: Polish PM Tusk reiterated Poland's intent to be involved in Ukraine's post-war reconstruction, emphasizing solidarity alongside profit motives and defense of Polish interests. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Рыбарь, Басурин о главном, Старше Эдды)
Ukrainian Foreign Fighter Recruitment Policy: Ukrainian recruitment centers reportedly authorized to facilitate foreign national entry for contract service, with costs covered by the state budget. (Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition)
Ukrainian Mobilization Law Adjustments: Law signed reducing fines for reservists failing TCK data updates if they comply later. Separate SBU/Intelligence reservation mechanism approved. (РБК-Україна)
US-Iran-Russia Dynamics: Reports suggest US proposal during nuclear talks involved potential transfer of Iranian enriched uranium to a third country (Russia mentioned), expected Iranian resistance. (The Guardian via ASTRA)
Alleged US Messaging to Refugees (RU Claim): Russian sources claim US Embassy in Kyiv released content suggesting Ukrainian refugees return due to expired/revoked visas. (Verification Required - Potential Russian Information Operation). (Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Force Structure / Capabilities / Logistics (UA & RU)
Major Ukrainian NGU Reform Confirmed: Creation of the 1st Corps "Azov" within the NGU confirmed, based on 12th Special Purpose Brigade "Azov". Includes 1st Presidential "Bureviy", 12th "Azov", 14th "Chervona Kalyna", 15th "Kara-Dag", and new 20th "Lyubart" Brigades. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
New Ukrainian UAV Complex Codified: Domestically produced V-1 unmanned aerial complex codified by MoD. Features ultra-light "bomber" UAVs for near-frontline/rear targets, multi-payload, low-noise, extended endurance, enhanced EW resistance. (Оперативний ЗСУ)
Russian Remote Mining Capability: RU "Center" Group engineers confirmed using "Zemledeliye" remote mining system to emplace minefields on the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) direction to impede Ukrainian movements. (Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition)
Russian UAV Deployment (Kharkiv): RU MoD claims use of "Molniya" UAV by 1st Guards Tank Army (Zapad Group) to destroy AFU stronghold in Kharkiv region. (MoD Russia)
Russian EW / Counter-Drone Measures (Kursk): Ukrainian DPSU spokesperson confirmed Russia established "anti-drone corridors" in Kursk Oblast using EW to protect vehicle movement. However, Ukrainian forces have reportedly found "loopholes" and continue successful strikes within these zones. (РБК-Україна)
Ukrainian Feedback on German Weapons: Acknowledged process of providing feedback to Germany on weapon performance under combat conditions for improvement. (РБК-Україна)
Ukrainian Counter-Drone Capabilities: Fundraising continues for AD units using FPVs against RU recon UAVs. (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС) Commendation issued to info channel admin for facilitating support to a 37th Marine Brigade self-propelled artillery division. (Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦)
Russian Logistics & Volunteer Support: Ongoing reliance on volunteer groups for items like add-on armor (Sever Group, Kursk border) and vehicle/drone procurement (DJI Matrice 3T/4T). (Два майора, Colonelcassad)
Assessment of Russian Offensive Potential: Ukrainian expert analysis suggests Russia lacks forces/equipment for broad offensives, with potential concentration primarily on the Sumy axis. Limited recruitment and equipment conservation noted. (Ivan Stupak via РБК-Україна)
Russian Personnel Issues: Reports of corruption within FSIN involving coercion of individuals into military contracts for financial gain. (МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, Арестанты)
Frontline Operations
Kursk/Sumy Border (High Intensity):
RU Claims (Voenkor Kotenok): Fighting continues for Loknya (Sumy); RU forces advancing towards Vodolahy (Sumy); fighting initiated for Belovody (Sumy). Fighting persists for Oleshnia (Kursk), with claims of Ukrainian reinforcements arriving. Fighting commenced for Nikolsky Monastery near Hornal (Kursk).
RU Claims (MoD - Sever Group, Belgorod Dir.): Engagements against multiple UA brigades near Miropolye (Myropilske), Yamnoye (Yamne) (Sumy Oblast). Claimed UA losses: ~90 personnel, 3 AFVs, 4 vehicles, 4 artillery guns; 2 ammo depots, 1 logistics depot destroyed.
Previous RU Claims (MoD - Sever Group, Kursk Dir.): Engagements near Hornal, Oleshnia (Kursk). Claimed artillery/air/UAV strikes in Sumy Oblast (Belovody, Velikaya Rybitsa, etc.). Claimed high UA losses (200 personnel, tank, APC, vehicles, 2 HIMARS, arty). Cumulative loss figures remain highly inflated.
Other RU Claims: Su-25 activity confirmed. Claim of foreign mercenaries surrounded in Hornal monastery. Fairbairn-Sykes knife allegedly recovered from mercenary in Komarovka clearing. (TASS, Fighterbomber)
Ukrainian Counter-Drone Ops: DPSU confirms UA forces are finding ways to strike RU equipment moving within established EW "anti-drone corridors" in Kursk Oblast. (РБК-Україна)
Belgorod Border (Renewed Activity):
RU Claim (Voenkor Kotenok): Ukrainian attack using armor repelled ~06:00 MSK near Popovka / Demidovka junction. Claimed prior knowledge of UA armor movement. Claimed UA losses: 1 IMR (engineering vehicle), 1 tank, 2 BBMs. Demidovka reportedly fully cleared of UA forces. Popovka reportedly still contains UA presence; RU clearing operations ongoing.
Kharkiv Axis:
RU Claims (MoD - Zapad Group): Claimed occupation of "advantageous lines." Engagements against multiple UA brigades near Kamianka, Yampil (Kharkiv Oblast / DNR). Claimed UA losses: >250 personnel, 1 UK "Snatch" AFV, 4 vehicles, 5 NATO arty systems (2 Polish Krab, 1 UK Braveheart, 1 US M198); 4 EW stations, 3 ammo depots destroyed.
UA Drone Ops: "Kharon" unit (14th Mech Bde) released video claiming destruction of RU buggy with personnel, 2 ATVs with riders, and 2 additional RU personnel via FPV drones. (STERNENKO)
RU Claims (Dnevnik Desantnika): Advances reported: 150m towards Hrekivka. Fire control established over roads near Nove, disrupting UA logistics. Fighting initiated within Novomykhailivka. Zone of control expanded 300m towards Torske.
RU Claims (MoD - Yug Group): Claimed improved tactical positions. Engagements against multiple UA brigades near Siversk, Valentynivka (DNR). Claimed UA losses: >285 personnel, 1 SWE CV-90 IFV, 1 US M113 APC, 1 US HMMWV, 9 vehicles, 10 arty systems (incl. 2 UK FH-70, 1 US Paladin); 5 ammo depots, 2 logistics depots, 1 fuel depot destroyed.
Pokrovsk Axis:
RU Engineering Ops: Confirmed use of "Zemledeliye" remote mining system to deny routes to UA forces. (Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition)
RU Claims (MoD - Tsentr Group): Claimed forward advance. Engagements against multiple UA brigades near Lysovka, Oleksiivka (DNR). Claimed UA losses: >335 personnel, 4 AFVs (incl. 1 US M113, 2 US HMMWV), 2 pickups, 7 arty systems (incl. 1 US Paladin, 1 Polish Krab).
UA Drone Ops: "Flying Skull" unit FPV strikes claimed destruction of multiple RU vehicles/personnel. (STERNENKO)
South Donetsk / Novopavlivsk Axis:
RU Claims (MoD - Vostok Group): Claimed advance into UA defenses. Engagements against UA brigades near Bohatyr, Shevchenko (DNR). Claimed UA losses: ~155 personnel, 2 armored cars, 1 pickup, 2 arty systems (incl. 1 US Paladin).
Previous RU Ops: Video claimed strikes on 71st Jaeger Bde. Drone footage released near Kostyantynivka. (Воин DV, Kotsnews)
Zaporizhzhia Front / Dnipro Axis:
RU Claims (MoD - Dnepr Group): Engagements against multiple UA brigades near Novodanylivka (Zaporizhzhia), Dniprovske (Kherson). Claimed UA losses: ~100 personnel, 9 vehicles, 3 arty systems; 2 EW stations, 1 US AN/TPQ-50 counter-battery radar, 3 ammo depots destroyed.
Previous RU Mining: Claimed destruction of UA pickup via remote mining ("Viking" detachment). (Colonelcassad)
Air / Drone / EW Activity
Russian EW / Counter-Drone: Confirmed deployment of EW systems to create "anti-drone corridors" in Kursk Oblast to protect logistics. (РБК-Україна) Claimed destruction of 4 UA EW stations (Zapad Group) and 2 UA EW stations (Dnepr Group). (MoD Russia) Claimed destruction of 1 US AN/TPQ-50 radar (Dnepr Group). (MoD Russia)
Ukrainian Counter-EW/Drone Ops: Ukrainian forces reportedly identifying and exploiting vulnerabilities ("loopholes") in Russian EW corridors in Kursk Oblast to continue strikes. (РБК-Україна) Continued success reported by AD units using FPVs against RU recon drones. (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС) 110th Mech Bde claimed highly effective FPV strike destroying truck with ~10 RU personnel. (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС) 14th Mech Bde claimed FPV hits on RU buggy, ATVs, personnel (Kupyansk). (STERNENKO)
Russian Air Power: Su-25 ground attack aircraft active in Kursk border area, video released claiming strikes on armor/stronghold. (TASS)
Russian Drone Systems:
V-1 Complex: New domestically produced bomber drone complex codified. (Оперативний ЗСУ)
Molniya UAV: Claimed use for strike in Kharkiv region. (MoD Russia)
Remote Mining: "Zemledeliye" system used on Pokrovsk axis. (Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Colonelcassad)
Other: Drone detectors ("Asel"), DJI Matrice drones via volunteers, drone footage for targeting (Kostyantynivka) reported. (WarGonzo, Colonelcassad, Kotsnews)
Ukrainian Strike on RU EW: Previous confirmation of destruction of two Russian Borisoglebsk-2 EW stations remains significant. (Оперативний ЗСУ)
Russian Energy Strike Moratorium: Peskov claims Russia observes moratorium, Ukraine violates it daily. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
Alleged Ukrainian Strikes on RU Energy: Previous report noted 6 attacks (Apr 14-15) on RU energy infrastructure (Bryansk, Kursk, occ. Kherson). (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
Personnel / POWs / Humanitarian / Other
Ukrainian Internal Security / Counter-Intelligence: FSB informant sentenced to 15 years in Cherkasy for providing coordinates of strategic/military sites for RU strikes in Sep 2024. (Офіс Генерального прокурора)
Russian Internal Security/Recruitment Issues: FSIN officer in Kuban investigated for coercing individual into military contract for financial gain, plus bribery related to house arrest violations. (МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники) Teenager detained in Leningrad Oblast for alleged railway sabotage attempt (arson), reportedly coerced online. (Север.Реалии) Police officer suspected in assault avoided prosecution via military contract. (ASTRA)
Ukrainian Domestic Issues: Video shows forceful police arrest in Kryvyi Rih, prompting bystander concern (RU source framed as oppression). (Colonelcassad) Significant urban flooding reported in Kyiv impacting mobility. (Alex Parker Returns)
Russian Domestic Issues / Information Environment: Public criticism by pro-war bloggers of Minister of Sport Degtyaryov's statement on occupied regions being "part of Ukraine by international law" (related to IOC status). Degtyaryov later restored crosses to ministry logo, framed as attempt to regain favor. (Kotsnews, Alex Parker Returns) Individual sentenced in St. Petersburg for anti-war posts. (ASTRA, Север.Реалии) Weapon fired from car in occupied Mariupol. (Mash на Донбассе) Soldiers complain about neglected military cemetery in Azov. (МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники)
POW Advocacy: Families of captured/missing defenders held demonstration in Kyiv advocating for exchanges. (Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими)
Civilian Impact (Kursk): Previous report noted damage to homes/infrastructure from UAV attacks, compensation announced. (ТАСС, Хинштейн)
Ukrainian Recruitment (Zaporizhzhia): Region reported among top 5 for voluntary enlistment via recruitment centers (>5300 inquiries/year). (🇺🇦 Запорізька ОВА) Government program offers compensation to employers hiring youth. (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦)
Geopolitics / NATO Activity: France conducted second phase of nuclear air component exercise "Belote-2025/2," indicating focus on readiness. (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА)
Previous Reports Summary (Apr 13)
Combat Intensity (Apr 12): 120 clashes; Pokrovsk main focus (31 assaults); High activity Lyman (18), Toretsk (16), Kursk Border (23). High RU air/drone/arty use (249 KABs claimed by UGS).
Territorial Changes (Confirmed Apr 12/11): RU advances confirmed near Yampolivka (Lyman), Valentynivka (Pokrovsk), in Kursk Oblast. RU advance near Kotliarivka (Kupyansk) confirmed Apr 11.
Key Events (Apr 12): Second UA F-16 loss confirmed, pilot KIA (Major Pavlo Ivanov). Major Mykhailo Maryna (CBRN Regt) KIA in Sumy Oblast strike.
Significant Claims (Apr 12/13): RU claim >500 UA POWs in Kursk. RU claim destruction of US AN/TPQ-48/50 radar near Bohatyr (Novopavlivsk). RU claim destruction of foreign mercenary groups (Kupyansk).
RU Tactics: Reported use of unarmored civilian vehicles for assaults (Toretsk), possibly indicating armor shortage but sufficient manpower.
UA Tactics: Confirmed use of heavy "Baba Yaga" hexacopters cross-border (Belgorod). Counter-recon ops against RU probing Oskil River crossings (Kupyansk).
