Military Situation Update: Ukraine (Analysis as of Tue Apr 15 11:45:48 2025)
I. Strategic & Operational Overview
Russian Main Efforts: Assessed objectives remain the occupation of remaining Donbas territory (primarily Pokrovsk axis, with RU MoD claiming advances by Tsentr Group and hits near Lysovka, Zverevo, Kotlino, Udachnoye, Preobrazhenka, Bohdanivka, Alekseyevka; TASS reporting advances towards Kostiantynivka S of Pokrovsk) and consolidating control along the Kursk/Sumy border region (RU MoD reports Sever Group actions near Miropolskoye, Malaya Rybitsa, Petrushevka, Krasnopolye, Yamnoye). Offensive pressure continues across multiple axes, leveraging significant air power (KABs), diverse drone platforms (including remote FPV operations via "Orbita" system from Moscow City), artillery, and ground forces. Pro-Russian sources claim advances on the South Donetsk axis towards the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast administrative border (RU MoD reports Vostok Group advances into depth of defense near Bogatyr, Otradnoye, Burlatskoye, Shevchenko), recent claims of advances in Sumy Oblast (Veselovka, Zhuravka, Basovka), capture of Piatykhatky (Zaporizhzhia), and occupation of Preobrazhenka (Orikhiv axis), western Valentynivka (Toretsk), entry into Novomykhailivka (Pokrovsk), advances near Bilohorivka and Hryhorivka (Lyman/Siversk), and expanded control west of Makiivka (Kupyansk). Potential medium-term objective remains the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration. RU sources claim control of Demidovka and Popovka (Belgorod Oblast). RU MoD reports improved tactical positions for Yug Group near Seversk, Minkovka, Markovo, Chasiv Yar, Kurdyumovka, Ivanpolye, Yablonovka, Tarasovka, Ulyanovka, Valentinovka.
Ukrainian Force Structure Reform: Significant organizational change underway with the creation of the 1st Corps "Azov" within the National Guard of Ukraine (NGU), based on the 12th SP Brigade "Azov". Includes 1st Presidential Op Bde "Bureviy", 12th SP Bde "Azov", 14th Op Bde "Chervona Kalyna", 15th Op Bde "Kara-Dag", and new 20th Op Bde "Lyubart". Commander is Col. Denys Prokopenko ("Redis"). Additionally, a 2nd NGU Corps is being formed based on the "Khartia" Brigade, led by Ihor Obolenskyi ("Kornet"). This reform aims to enhance command and control and operational effectiveness within the NGU, emphasizing NATO standards adoption.
Combat Intensity: High-intensity engagements persist, particularly on the Pokrovsk, Lyman, Toretsk, Chasiv Yar, Siversk, South Donetsk, and Kursk/Sumy border axes. Russia maintains significant artillery and air pressure. Significant combat reported near Vovchansk (Kharkiv Oblast). RU MoD claims hitting concentrations of multiple UA brigade types across various axes.
Belgorod Dir: Engaged UA forces near Miropolskoye, Malaya Rybitsa, Petrushevka, Krasnopolye, Yamnoye (Sumy).
Zapad Group (Kupyansk/Lyman): Took more advantageous lines/positions; engaged UA near Kamenka, Doroshovka, Radkovka, Moskovka, Podoly, Senkovo, Boguslavka, Novay Kruglyakovka (Kharkiv), Karpovka, Redkodub, Kirovsk, Yampol (DPR). Expanded control W of Makiivka (Colonelcassad).
Yug Group (Kramatorsk/Toretsk): Improved tactical situation; engaged UA near Seversk, Minkovka, Markovo, Chasiv Yar, Kurdyumovka, Ivanpolye, Yablonovka, Tarasovka, Ulyanovka, Valentinovka. Western Valentynivka occupied (Colonelcassad).
Tsentr Group (Pokrovsk): Took more advantageous lines/positions; engaged UA near Lysovka, Zverevo, Kotlino, Udachnoye, Preobrazhenka, Bohdanivka, Alekseyevka. Entered Novomykhailivka (Colonelcassad). Offensive S of Pokrovsk towards Kostiantynivka (TASS).
Vostok Group (South Donetsk): Continued advancing into depth of defense; engaged UA near Bogatyr, Otradnoye, Burlatskoye, Shevchenko. Near Razdolne and Burlatske (Z комитет). Near Rozdolne (DeepState via Tsaplienko). Towards Uspenivka, Troitske, Alekseevka (Z комитет).
Dnepr Group (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson): Improved tactical situation; engaged UA near Novodanilovka, Stepnogorsk (Zaporizhzhia), Tokarevka, Sadovoye, Antonovka, Dneprovskoye (Kherson). Piatykhatky captured (Colonelcassad). Preobrazhenka liberated (Colonelcassad).
Lyman/Siversk: Advance near Bilohorivka (Colonelcassad). Advance towards Hryhorivka (Colonelcassad).
Kursk/Belgorod: Near Huyevo (Kursk) (DeepState via Tsaplienko). Demidovka and Popovka (Belgorod) control claimed (TASS).
Russian Claim (Failed UA Attack): RU sources claim UA armored push towards Demidovka (Belgorod) repelled by RU 34th Mountain Brigade (visuals shared). RU MoD claims up to 200 UA personnel losses in Kursk Oblast.
Ukrainian Strike Claim (Significant - EW): UA Southern Defense Forces claim destruction of two stations of the Russian Borisoglebsk-2 EW complex in Kherson region (SDF South video, Apr 14/15). High-value target degradation.
Ukrainian Strike Claim (Significant - Missile Bde): ~30 UAVs reportedly targeted the temporary deployment point of the Russian 448th Missile Brigade in Kursk Oblast overnight Apr 14/15, allegedly inflicting heavy losses (Operatyvnyi ZSU, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS). Brigade implicated in Apr 13 Sumy strike.
Overnight RU Air Attack (Apr 14-15): RU launched 1 Iskander-M/KN-23 missile (Kursk Obl.) and 52 Shahed/imitator drones. UA claims 26 Shahed/other drones shot down; missile not intercepted. Sumy, Donetsk, Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts affected (UA AF, Colonelcassad).
Evolving Drone Warfare:
RU Remote Ops: RU remote drone operations ("Orbita" system) controlled from Moscow City targeting Chasiv Yar, causing RU OPSEC concerns after reveal (ASTRA).
UA Deep Strike / Mother Drones: Reports of UA using large "mother" drones carrying FPVs for deep strikes (20-50km) into RU rear (Kursk direction) (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА).
RU Counter-Drone Tactics: Reports of RU FPV ramming UA heavy "Baba Yaga" drones (Kharkiv direction) (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺). RU using drone detectors like "Asel" (WarGonzo).
RU Fiber-Optic FPV: Claimed use near Liptsy (Kharkiv) to destroy UA HMMWV (Colonelcassad video).
UA Drone Strikes (Belarusian Unit): Kalinouski Polk FPV operators claim hitting RU BMD-4 and ATGM crew in South Ukraine (Tsaplienko video).
Russian Advanced Ground Systems Use: Confirmation of "Krot" UGVs (Lyman axis) and "Zemledeliye" remote mine-laying (Pokrovsk axis, Zaporizhzhia front - destroying UA pickup).
Ukrainian Regional Leadership Changes: Dismissal of Sumy OVA Head Dmytro Artyukh approved, linked to Apr 13 Sumy strike aftermath. Luhansk OVA Head Artem Lysogor dismissal approved, Oleksiy Kharchenko nominated replacement.
Ukrainian Counter-Intelligence / Internal Security: SBU detained two women in Pokrovsk for alleged treason (providing ZSU locations). SBU conducted searches at Kyiv Metropolia UOC-MP offices targeting Metropolitan Antony Pakanych (alleged pro-Kremlin lobbying).
Civil Preparedness (Easter): Kyiv City Military Admin warned of potential RU Easter attacks. Dnipropetrovsk OVA coordinating security with clergy/law enforcement, emphasizing shelter awareness/curfew.
Alleged UA Strikes on RU Energy: RU MoD/sources claim 6 UA attacks on energy facilities (Bryansk, Kursk, Occupied Kherson) Apr 14-15.
II. Frontline Developments
Kursk/Sumy/Belgorod Border Zone (High Activity / Conflicting Claims / UA Strikes / RU Claims):
Russian Advance/Control Claims: RU MoD claims engaging multiple UA brigades near Miropolskoye, Malaya Rybitsa, Petrushevka, Krasnopolye, Yamnoye (Sumy). Control established over Demidovka and Popovka (Belgorod) (TASS). Confirmed RU advance near Huyevo (Kursk) (DeepState). Video shows destruction in Sudzha (Kursk) (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА).
Ukrainian Attack Claim Repelled (RU Claim): RU claims UA armored push towards Demidovka (Belgorod) repelled by RU 34th Mountain Brigade; UA equipment destroyed (visuals shared). RU MoD claims up to 200 UA personnel losses in Kursk Oblast; up to 90 UA losses on Belgorod direction, destroying 3 AFVs, 4 vehicles, 4 artillery guns, 2 ammo depots, 1 materiel depot.
UA Drone Tactics: UA employing large "mother" drones carrying FPVs for deep strikes (20-50km) into RU rear (Kursk direction).
Kharkiv Axis (RU Strikes / UA Defense / Counter-Drone):
Vovchansk/Liptsy: RU claims destroying UA assault groups/vehicles (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺). RU Fiber-optic FPV strike claimed destroyed UA HMMWV near Liptsy (Colonelcassad video).
UA Defense Claim:3rd Assault Brigade repelled RU infantry assault, inflicting heavy losses (Butusov Plus video).
UA Drone Activity:"Chaklun" recon drone complex used by 3rd Mech Bn, 22nd Mech Bde (OTU Kharkiv).
Counter-Drone: RU claims increased losses of UA "Baba Yaga" drones near Liptsy/Vovchansk due to RU FPV ramming tactics.
Civilian Impact: >25 houses damaged by RU KABs/UAVs (Apr 14-15). Evacuation continues (Kharkiv OVA). Child injured mother with found RPG-22 (RVvoenkor).
Kupyansk Axis:
Clashes confirmed near Nova Kruhlyakivka (UGS via Liveuamap).
RU Claim: Zapad Group took more advantageous lines/positions, engaged UA near Kamenka, Doroshovka, Radkovka, Moskovka, Podoly, Senkovo, Boguslavka, Novay Kruglyakovka. Expanded zone W of Makiivka (Colonelcassad). Claim >250 UA losses, destroyed UK Snatch AFV, 4 vehicles, 5 NATO artillery (2 Krab, 1 Braveheart, 1 M198), 4 EW stations, 3 ammo depots (RU MoD).
Lyman Axis:
Clashes confirmed near Nadiia, Nove, Katerynivka, Hrekivka, Zelena Dolyna, Torske, Bilohorivka, Hryhorivka (UGS via Liveuamap).
RU Claim: Zapad Group took more advantageous lines/positions, engaged UA near Karpovka, Redkodub, Kirovsk, Yampol (DPR). Use of "Krot" UGVs near Yampil (Colonelcassad). Advance near Bilohorivka (Colonelcassad).
Confirmed RU Advance (DeepState, Apr 12): Near Yampolivka.
Siversk Axis:
Clashes confirmed near Verkhnokamyanske, Ivano-Daryivka (UGS via Liveuamap).
RU Claim: Yug Group engaged UA near Seversk, Minkovka, Markovo. Advance near Bilohorivka (Colonelcassad). Advance towards Hryhorivka (Colonelcassad map).
Kramatorsk Axis (Chasiv Yar):
Clashes confirmed near Chasiv Yar, Andriivka, towards Mayske (UGS via Liveuamap).
RU Claim: Yug Group improved tactical situation, engaged UA near Chasiv Yar, Kurdyumovka, Ivanpolye, Yablonovka, Tarasovka, Ulyanovka. Remote FPV strikes via "Orbita" from Moscow City (WarGonzo etc.).
Clashes confirmed near Ozarianivka, Toretsk (UGS via Liveuamap).
RU Claim: Yug Group engaged UA near Valentinovka. Occupied western part of Valentynivka (Colonelcassad). RU MoD claims >285 UA losses (Yug Group total), destroyed CV-90 IFV, M113 APC, HMMWV, 9 vehicles, 10 artillery (2 FH-70, 1 Paladin), 5 ammo depots, 2 materiel depots, 1 fuel depot.
Pokrovsk Axis (Highest Intensity / RU Tech Use / RU Claims / Destruction / UA Ops):
Clashes confirmed near Sukha Balka, Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Kotlyne, Udachne, Kotlyarivka, Bohdanivka, Andriivka (UGS via Liveuamap).
Ukrainian Actions:UA 59th Brigade ("Inkvizytsiya" group) combined arms strike (aerial recon, air/arty, FPV) destroyed RU tank (Butusov Plus video).
Russian Claims: Tsentr Group took more advantageous lines/positions, engaged UA near Lysovka, Zverevo, Kotlino, Udachne, Preobrazhenka, Bohdanivka, Alekseyevka. Forces entered Novomykhailivka (Colonelcassad). Offensive S of Pokrovsk towards Kostiantynivka (TASS). Use of Zemledeliye remote mine-laying system. Claim >335 UA losses, destroyed 4 AFVs (incl. M113, 2 HMMWV), 2 pickups, 7 artillery (incl. 1 Paladin, 1 Krab) (RU MoD).
Video evidence: Significant destruction in Pokrovsk (RU strikes). Grim reality of RU casualties near mines ("road of death").
RU Equipment Needs: Crowdfunding appeal for Mavic drone highlights needs/high UA drone activity (Dnevnik Desantnika).
UA Counter-Intelligence: Two women detained for allegedly providing ZSU locations to FSB.
Confirmed RU Advance (DeepState, Apr 12): Near Valentynivka.
South Donetsk / Novopavlivsk Axis:
Russian Claims: Vostok Group advancing into depth of defense, engaged UA near Bogatyr, Otradnoye, Burlatskoye, Shevchenko. Claims advances near Razdolne and Burlatske. Advances towards Uspenivka, Troitske, Alekseevka. Claim >155 UA losses, destroyed 2 AFVs, 1 pickup, 2 artillery (incl. 1 Paladin) (RU MoD).
Confirmed RU Advance: Near Rozdolne (DeepState via Tsaplienko).
Confirmed Actions: Clashes near Kostiantynopil and Rozlyv (UGS via Liveuamap). RU claim 69th Separate Covering Brigade UAV strikes (Voin DV). RU 238th Arty Bde claims destroying UA M777 near Stepanivka (drone-spotted).
Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia):
Clashes confirmed near Stepove, Lobkove, Mali Shcherbaky (UGS via Liveuamap).
Russian Claims: Dnepr Group improved tactical situation, engaged UA near Novodanilovka, Stepnogorsk. Capture of Piatykhatky (visuals provided). Liberation of Preobrazhenka (map claim) (Colonelcassad). Remote mining destroyed UA pickup (Colonelcassad video).
Ukrainian Strike Claim (Significant): Destruction of two RU Borisoglebsk-2 EW stations (SDF South video).
Belarusian Unit Strike: Kalinouski Polk FPV operators claim hitting RU BMD-4 and ATGM crew (Tsaplienko video).
RU Strike Claim: Lancet strikes destroyed two UA M777 howitzers (Dva Maiora video).
RU Claims: Dnepr Group improved tactical situation, engaged UA near Tokarevka, Sadovoye, Antonovka, Dneprovskoye. Claim up to 100 UA losses, destroyed 9 vehicles, 3 artillery guns, 2 EW stations, 1 AN/TPQ-50 radar, 3 ammo depots (RU MoD). FPV strike destroyed UA M113 APC (Dnevnik Desantnika video). Alleged UA drone hit residential building in Aleshky (Voenkor Kotenok).
RU MoD Claims (Apr 15): Engaged infrastructure of a military airfield, assembly facilities for MLRS/strike drones, a drone training centre, temporary deployment areas in 144 areas. Shot down 4 JDAMs, 5 HIMARS projectiles, 304 UA UAVs.
Air Threat Alerts (Apr 15): Active alerts during day for Sumy (KABs), Zaporizhzhia (high-speed target), Dnipropetrovsk. Alert cleared in Zaporizhzhia (OVA, 11:01 UTC).
NATO Reconnaissance Activity (Black Sea): Significant NATO ISR reported near Crimea (Apr 12-13).
Russian Reconnaissance UAVs: Activity over Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv. Two RU UAVs downed over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Lysak, Dnipro OVA).
Ukrainian Counter-Drone / Strikes:
Claimed major UAV strike (~30 units) on RU 448th Missile Brigade base (Kursk) overnight Apr 14/15.
Claimed destruction of two RU Borisoglebsk-2 EW stations (South).
Claimed border guards disrupted RU assault in Sumy Oblast using drones.
Two RU recon UAVs downed over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
Electronic Warfare:Two Borisoglebsk-2 stations reportedly destroyed. RU MoD claims destroying 4 UA EW stations (Kupyansk), 2 UA EW stations (Kherson). Using drone detectors ("Asel").
Counter-Drone: FPV ramming tactics.
Equipment Needs: Crowdfunding appeal for Mavic recon drone on Pokrovsk axis (Dnevnik Desantnika).
Force Structure:Creation of 1st NGU Corps "Azov" and 2nd NGU Corps "Khartia". Azov Corps emphasizes NATO standards, tactical medicine, recruitment, counter-propaganda.
Drone Capabilities: Effective strikes reported (border defense, 448th Bde base, EW systems). New long-range FPV deployment tactic ("mother" drones). Use of systems like "Chaklun" recon drone. Belarusian volunteer unit (Kalinouski Polk) conducting FPV strikes.
Unit Effectiveness: Actions by 3rd Assault Bde (Kharkiv), Border Guards (Sumy), SDF (EW destruction), 59th Bde (Pokrovsk), Kalinouski Polk (South) highlighted. Historical effectiveness cited (Huliaipole helo ambush).
Mobilization Law Adjustments: Law signed reducing fines for reservists failing to update data with TCKs if they subsequently comply. Separate mobilization reservation mechanism approved for SBU/Intelligence services.
Veteran Support: Highlighted by Zaporizhzhia OVA (Mykola Horishko profile).
V. Policy, Diplomacy & Political
Ukrainian Regional Leadership: Dismissal of Sumy OVA Head Dmytro Artyukh approved. Luhansk OVA Head Artem Lysogor dismissal approved, Oleksiy Kharchenko nominated replacement.
Peace Terms / Negotiations:
Russia (Naryshkin, Apr 15): Peace requires UA non-nuclear status, repeal of "discriminatory" laws, recognition of Russia's borders.
Russia (Peskov, Apr 15): Political will exists for settlement, no clear outlines. Intense work ongoing, no immediate results expected.
US Perspective (RU Source): Head of AmCham Russia suggests US companies could return if sanctions (investment ban, banks, aviation, IT, med components) are partially lifted, contingent on Russia-Ukraine peace agreement. Suggests US capital acquiring stake in Nord Stream pipelines as potential project (Basurin).
International Support / Relations:
Poland: PM Tusk stated Poland wants to profit from Ukraine reconstruction while being solidary (TASS, Tsaplienko).
Armenia: PM Pashinyan to attend May 9 parade in Moscow.
EU Aid Plan: RU sources claim Kallas' €40bn military aid plan lacks full EU Council approval.
Czechia: Court sentenced founder of "Help Ukraine" fund to 5.5 years for embezzling funds meant for UA refugees (ASTRA).
Russia - Internal: Authorities prosecuting individuals for alleged collaboration/anti-war posts (Petersburg sentence). Police officer accused of assault deployed to Ukraine, investigation stalled (ASTRA). Individuals shooting weapons from cars in occupied Mariupol (Mash na Donbasse).
Russia-West Relations: Russia accuses Ukraine of violating alleged energy strike moratorium. Peskov comments on Kallas' "aggressive rhetoric." Zakharova calls for condemnation of Kyiv's "crimes" (Kursk drone attack). SVR Head Naryshkin states RU/BY ready for pre-emptive action against NATO.
US Policy Debate (RU perspective): RU sources note alleged Trump desire to end UA conflict quickly linked to US shift to Asia-Pacific (evidenced by Balikatan exercises).
China-US Relations: China reportedly directing airlines to avoid US purchases after tariff increase (Bloomberg via TASS, Operatyvnyi ZSU).
VI. Information Environment
Russian Narrative: Focus on alleged UA aggression/failures (Kursk City damage, Demidovka attack failure, UA energy strikes), RU defensive successes/control claims (Kursk border, Demidovka, Popovka), offensive gains map claims (Piatykhatky, Preobrazhenka, Pokrovsk south, Siversk). Promotion of tech ("Orbita", "Krot", "Zemledeliye", "Asel"). Framing UA Kursk city strike as attack on civilians. Highlighting dismissal of Sumy OVA head. Promoting peace conditions. Highlighting alleged negative UA public reaction to Zaluzhnyi statements. Emphasizing destruction of Western equipment (MoD claims). Raising OPSEC concerns over Moscow drone control center reveal. Highlighting equipment needs via fundraising (Pokrovsk drone, Kots fundraiser). Downplaying potential Zelenskyy May 9 counter-event. Highlighting alleged internal UA problems (Kharkiv RPG incident).
Ukrainian Narrative: Emphasis on Russian losses (Kursk 448th Bde strike claim, Borisoglebsk-2 EW systems destroyed), civilian impact of RU strikes (Kursk damage, Sumy casualties, Pokrovsk destruction, Sloviansk industrial zone attack), successful defense (Sumy border, Kharkiv), effectiveness of UA/allied drones (Borisoglebsk-2 kill, Pokrovsk combined arms, Kalinouski Polk strikes). Reporting successful C-I/internal security ops (Pokrovsk arrests, SBU raid on UOC-MP). Declares Moscow drone control center legitimate target. Highlighting RU recruitment issues/methods (criminal recruitment, deployment of accused police). Warning of potential Easter strikes. Showcasing NGU restructuring (Azov/Khartia Corps) and unit capabilities ("Chaklun" drone, 59th Bde). Highlighting battlefield realities (RU soldier remains video). Promoting veteran stories/support. Highlighting RU violation of alleged "energy truce".
VII. Civilian Impact
Kursk City, Russia: UAV attack (Apr 14/15) damaged 37 private houses (5 burned), 24 apartment buildings, 3 other houses, 11 ambulances. 1 civilian KIA, 9 WIA. Gas lines damaged (MoD Russia, Khinshtein via TASS). Residents offered compensation (75k rubles damaged, 150k rubles full loss).
Kharkiv Oblast, Ukraine: >25 houses damaged by RU KABs/UAVs (Apr 14-15). Evacuation ongoing (Kharkiv OVA). Child injured mother and brother after finding and accidentally firing an RPG-22 grenade launcher in Kharkiv (RVvoenkor).
Pokrovsk, Ukraine: Significant destruction from Russian strikes reported.
Sumy City, Ukraine: Update on Apr 13 strike: 44 hospitalized (10 children). 125 people affected. 7 seriously injured. Political fallout continues.
Sudzha, Kursk Oblast, Russia: Video shows heavy building/infrastructure damage.
Bryansk Oblast, Russia: Power outages from previous UA substation strikes.
Occupied Territories: RU claim UA drone hit residential building in Aleshky (Kherson). Difficulty accessing pharmacy near Makiivka (Donetsk). Power outages previously reported (Nova Kakhovka, Vinogradovo substation). Report of individual firing weapon from car in Mariupol (Mash na Donbasse).
Civil Preparedness: Authorities in Kyiv and Dnipropetrovsk advise caution for Easter due to potential strikes. Dnipro OVA coordinated security with clergy/law enforcement.
