Military Situation Update: Ukraine (Analysis as of Tue Apr 15 07:15:00 2025)

• Kursk UAV Strike & Aftermath (Update):

  • Updated Russian reports indicate damage to 24 multi-story apartment buildings in Kursk city from the overnight (Apr 14/15) Ukrainian UAV attack, a significant increase from the initially reported two (TASS citing Khinshtein). Damage to 3 private houses and 11 ambulances remains reported. Civilian casualty figures remain 1 KIA (85F) and 9 WIA (RU sources).
  • Alternative Ukrainian Strike Claim: Contradicting earlier claims of hitting the 448th Missile Brigade PPD, the head of Ukraine's Center for Countering Disinformation (TsPD), Kovalenko, claims unknown drones struck a Russian ammunition depot in Kursk overnight (RBC-Ukr). Verification required for both PPD and ammo depot strike claims.

• Ground Combat & Key Axes (Updates):

  • Sumy/Kursk Border: Russian sources (Z Komitet map) continue to claim advances towards Vodolahy (Sumy Oblast border area) and ongoing fighting for control of Volodymyrivka and Bilovody (Sumy Oblast). Ukrainian General Staff (via Liveuamap) confirms repelling 17 Russian assaults on this axis in the past day. RU drone activity ("Rubicon" detachment) reported targeting UA equipment on the Sumy axis (Poddubny).
  • Kupyansk Axis: Russian sources (Dnevnik Desantnika) claim a powerful strike hit near the old fire station in Borova around 22:00 local time on Apr 14. Fundraising appeals highlight needs for ATVs and advanced drones (Matrice 3T, Mavic 3T) for the RU 352nd Motor Rifle Regiment operating here (Dva Mayora). Ukrainian General Staff (via Liveuamap) confirms clashes near Nova Kruhlyakivka.
  • South Donetsk Axis (Novopavlivsk): Russian sources (Colonelcassad citing Voin DV) claim UAV operators from the 305th Artillery Brigade (5th Army, Vostok Group) destroyed Ukrainian Archer and Bohdana Self-Propelled Guns. Russian MoD claims Vostok Group forces neutralized two Ukrainian AFVs near Bohatyr. Ukrainian General Staff (via Liveuamap) confirms clashes near Kostiantynopil and Rozlyv.
  • Unspecified Axis (Naiev Report): Maj. Gen. Serhiy Naiev (Cmdr, Tactical Group) reported significant successes over the past two months in his Area of Operations: reduced UA personnel losses by 20%; regained control of Dniproenerhiya settlement; improved tactical positions on two axes. Claims inflicting heavy RU losses (~9500 KIA/WIA, 51 tanks, 166 AFVs, 819 vehicles), attributing ~70% to UAVs. Reported repelling a recent large RU assault (5 tanks, 14 AFVs, 6 armored cars) towards Vesele–Skudne, destroying >100 RU personnel, 4 tanks, 9 AFVs, 3 armored cars via combined arms (aero recon, fire support, UAVs). Notes receipt of 3433 partner-provided drones (Operatyvnyi ZSU / @SerhiyNaiev). Dniproenerhiya is located near the Zaporizhzhia/Donetsk border area; Vesele/Skudne locations less certain but possibly related.
  • Other Axes (GSh ZSU via Liveuamap - Confirmed Clashes): Clashes confirmed near:
    • Lyman: Nadiia, Nove, Katerynivka, Hrekivka, Zelena Dolyna, Torske, Bilohorivka, Hryhorivka.
    • Siversk: Verkhnokamyanske, Ivano-Daryivka.
    • Kramatorsk: Chasiv Yar, Andriivka, towards Mayske.
    • Toretsk: Ozarianivka, Toretsk.
    • Pokrovsk: Sukha Balka, Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Kotlyne, Udachne, Kotlyarivka, Bohdanivka, Andriivka.
    • Orikhiv: Stepove, Lobkove, Mali Shcherbaky.
    • Kherson: 2 RU assaults repelled.

• Strike Activity & Threats:

  • Claimed Ukrainian Strike (Occupied Kherson): Russian sources claim a Ukrainian strike hit a wholesale base in Nova Kakhovka. No casualties reported, but a fire resulted. The strike and overnight shelling allegedly caused power outages affecting 56,000 residents across 108 settlements (RVvoenkor citing Saldo).
  • Ongoing RU Reconnaissance UAV Threat: Ukrainian Air Force warns of active RU reconnaissance UAVs over Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts, with potential air defense engagement (UA AF).
  • Russian Airstrike Locations (Past Day - GSh ZSU via Liveuamap): Osoyivka, Mazenivka, Krasnopillya, Myropilske, Prokhody, Uhroyidy, Mykhaylivske, Petrushivka, Ryasne, Mala Rybytsya, Stepok (Sumy); Slatyne, Udy (Kharkiv); Yablunivka, Niv Poltavka, Hrodivka, Oleksandro-Kalynove (Donetsk); Hulyaypole, Zaliznychne, Stepnohirsk, Novoandriyivka (Zaporizhzhia).

• Capabilities & Other Notes:

  • Russian Remote Drone Capability Claim: Russian sources (RVvoenkor, Alex Parker Returns, WarGonzo) continue to promote the alleged use of the "Orbita" control system, claiming an FPV drone strike on Chasiv Yar was successfully executed by an operator in Moscow City ("Espanola" unit involved).
    • Ukrainian Response: Ukrainian sources (Operatyvnyi ZSU) declared the Moscow City complex a legitimate military target due to its reported use for military drone operations.
  • Ukrainian Training Update: Ukrainian General Staff announced an updated Basic General Military Training (BZVP) program effective May 1. It features reduced duration (1 month vs 45 days) and lower physical demands for personnel deemed suitable for non-combat roles (support, logistics, TCC, medical, etc.), including those formerly categorized as "limitedly fit." Aims to streamline training and improve staffing for rear units (GSh ZSU).
  • Ukrainian Counter-Intelligence: Ukraine's SBU and Prosecutor General's Office report thwarting an alleged RF-directed terrorist plot in Vinnytsia. Three suspects (1 Vinnytsia male, 2 Kyiv females) were detained, accused of preparing IEDs (disguised as thermoses) to target a military vehicle and a police station under instruction from Russian special services.

• Civilian Impact:

  • Kursk, Russia: Updated reports indicate 24 apartment buildings damaged by Ukrainian UAV attack, alongside 3 private houses and 11 ambulances. 1 civilian KIA (85F), 9 WIA confirmed (RU sources). Hotline established, residents evacuated from 3 buildings (TASS).
  • Nova Kakhovka (Occupied Kherson): Claimed Ukrainian strike resulted in power outages affecting 56,000 residents across 108 settlements (RVvoenkor citing Saldo).