Kursk UAV Strike & Aftermath: A large-scale Ukrainian UAV attack targeted Kursk city overnight (Apr 14/15). Russian sources report 1 civilian KIA (85F) and 9 WIA (receiving treatment for shrapnel wounds, TBI, burns). Damage confirmed to 2 multi-story apartment buildings (fires, residents evacuated), 3 private houses, and 11 ambulances at the Regional Ambulance Station garage. The Russian MoD claims 115 Ukrainian UAVs were intercepted overnight, with 109 over Kursk Oblast and others over Voronezh, Bryansk, Oryol, and Moscow Oblasts. Russian sources frame the attack as targeting civilian infrastructure.
Ground Combat Intensity & Key Axes:
- Overall: High intensity persists, with 99 combat clashes reported by Ukrainian General Staff (GSh ZSU) in the past 24 hours (as of 08:00 local / 05:00 UTC Apr 15).
- Pokrovsk Axis: Remains the most intense sector with 28 Russian assaults repelled near settlements including Sukha Balka, Yelyzavetivka, and Udachne (GSh ZSU). Intercepted communications and POW reports (e.g., 112th MRR soldier) suggest potential morale and command issues within specific Russian units in this direction, including complaints of inadequate supplies, poor reconnaissance leading to high casualties, and potential friendly fire incidents. Russian sources acknowledge high Ukrainian drone activity and are actively fundraising for reconnaissance drones (e.g., Mavic) for their units here.
- Lyman Axis: High activity with 20 Russian attacks repelled near Nadiia, Torske, Bilohorivka, Hryhorivka, Katerynivka, Nove, and Zelena Dolyna (GSh ZSU). Russian sources maintain claims of a breakthrough near Yampolivka and advances.
- Orikhiv Axis: Ukrainian Southern Defense Forces (SDF) report repelling 7 Russian assaults (up from 3 reported earlier by GSh ZSU) near Stepove, Lobkove, and Mali Shcherbaky. Russian air strike reported on Novoadriivka. Russian sources claim positional fighting with no significant Line of Battle changes.
- Kursk/Belgorod Border: 17 clashes reported on the Kursk axis (GSh ZSU).
- Russian sources claim a Ukrainian ground assault attempt with armor was repelled between Popovka/Demydovka (Belgorod Oblast) early Apr 15 (Colonelcassad, Dva Mayora), with Dva Mayora claiming 5 Ukrainian AFVs destroyed by drone/artillery fire (RU "Sever" Group). Other RU sources describe recent UA attacks as costly ("suicidal"), acknowledging high UA drone activity ("Baba Yaga") while alleging UA supply issues.
- Fighting continues near Oleshnia and Hornal (Kursk Oblast). RU sources claim intensified storming of the Hornal monastery overnight, alleging up to 300 Ukrainian personnel are sheltering inside underground facilities and have refused surrender negotiations (TASS, Condottiero).
- Russian sources claim RU forces are advancing towards Vodolahy (Sumy Oblast border area) and fighting is ongoing for control of Volodymyrivka and Bilovody (Sumy Oblast) (Z Komitet).
- Toretsk Axis: 11 Russian attacks conducted near Ozarianivka and Toretsk (GSh ZSU). Ukrainian forces (28th Brigade and adjacent units) report repelling a Russian column near Toretsk, forcing elements into a dugout which was subsequently targeted by drones, resulting in at least one captured POW (Tsaplienko).
- Novopavlivsk / South Donetsk Axis: 10 RU attacks repelled near Kostiantynopil/Rozlyv (GSh ZSU). Russian sources (WarGonzo) claim tactical advances towards Bohatyr from the south and towards Otradne, alleging UA logistics are hampered by fire control. Other RU sources (Voin DV) claim trapping UA soldiers in a basement on the Shakhtarsk direction.
- Prydniprovsky Axis (Left Bank Kherson): Ukrainian SDF report repelling 2 Russian attempts to approach Ukrainian positions.
Russian Strike Activity & Threats:
- Overall (Past 24h - GSh ZSU): 1 missile strike, 119 aviation strikes (191 KABs), 3275 kamikaze drones, 6590 shelling incidents reported across Ukraine.
- Southern Axis (Past 24h - UA SDF): Reports indicate intense Russian drone usage: approx. 700 kamikaze drone strikes and over 350 munition drops from UAVs (>450 munitions total). Additionally, 13 KABs, 88 unguided rockets (NARs), and over 270 shelling incidents (>1100 munitions) were recorded impacting Mykolaiv, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts.
- Ongoing Shahed Threat (as of 06:15 UTC): Attack UAVs reported moving: Eastern Kharkiv Oblast heading South; Central Poltava Oblast heading North-West; Central Kirovohrad Oblast heading West; Southern Sumy Oblast heading North-West. Warnings active for Kropyvnytskyi, Myrhorod, Sumy. (Previous threats active across multiple central/eastern oblasts). Air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast ended around 05:53 UTC.
- KAB Threat: Persists for frontline regions, particularly Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts.
- Potential Escalation (Sumy): Russian sources («Зона СВО») issued an urgent warning for civilians to evacuate Sumy city and surrounding areas, potentially indicating plans for intensified strikes.
Civilian Impact (Past 24h - Selected Reports):
- Kursk, Russia: 1 KIA (85F), 9 WIA from Ukrainian UAV attack (RU sources).
- Zaporizhzhia Oblast: 1 civilian KIA (UA OVA / SDF).
- Kherson Oblast: 8 civilians WIA, including 1 child (UA SDF).
- Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Nikopol): 1 civilian WIA (78F from kamikaze drone) (UA OVA / SDF).
Capabilities & Other Notes:
- Russian EW: Russian military sources actively highlight Electronic Warfare (EW) capabilities, coinciding with the designated EW Specialist Day (Apr 15). Some RU sources note EW development continues but faces bureaucratic hurdles.
- Ukrainian Strikes (Past 24h):
- GSh ZSU: Reported hitting 5 RU personnel/equipment areas, 2 AD systems, 4 command posts, 8 artillery systems, 3 Radar/EW stations, and 2 other important targets.
- SDF (South): Claimed neutralization/destruction of 82 RU personnel, 12 artillery systems, 40 vehicles/AFVs, 1 Buk-M3 AD system, 24 recon UAVs, 4 EW stations, 7 boats, 14 motorcycles, 2 quads, 2 buggies, 9 UAV control antennas, 3 comms antennas, 1 Starlink terminal, 4 generators, 3 ammo points, 1 supply depot. Destroyed 66 shelters/dugouts, 3 OPs.
- Russian Air Recon (South): Ukrainian SDF note increased Russian air reconnaissance activity coinciding with improved weather, claiming 24 reconnaissance UAVs (Orlan, Zala, Supercam) downed in the southern sector over the past day.
- Russian Aviation (RU claims): RU military bloggers (Fighterbomber) claim tactical aviation (OTA/ShA/AA) operations continue with focus on minimizing exposure; glide bomb (UMPK) use with lofting maneuvers persists; Black Sea helicopter losses replaced "with excess"; Su-35S effectively fulfilling some roles previously held by A-50; UMPK guidance module production increased; imminent deployment of "Kometa" multi-UMPK system; pilot staffing levels sufficient/excessive due to training initiatives.
- Naval: No Russian warships reported in the Black or Azov Seas; 3 missile carriers (26 Kalibr potential) remain in the Mediterranean (UA Navy).
- Russian Internal Security: Reports indicate establishment of special police mobile groups using armored vehicles and anti-drone equipment to patrol railway infrastructure in Central Russia due to increased sabotage incidents (ASTRA).
- Logistics: Both sides exhibit reliance on crowdfunding/volunteer support for basic needs. UA fundraising for field cots (109th, 143rd Bdes, 1st OShB mentioned). RU fundraising for Mavic drones (Pokrovsk direction).
- Diplomatic / Information Environment: Conflicting reports emerge regarding potential US-Russia backchannel talks involving Trump associate Steve Witkoff. RU sources promote claims of progress towards a peace deal involving "five territories," security protocols, and non-NATO status for Ukraine. UA sources dismiss these claims as Russian-dictated terms amounting to "capitulation" and question Witkoff's motives. Reports also indicate internal disagreement within the Trump team regarding policy towards Russia (WSJ).
- Claimed Russian Losses (Past 24h - GSh ZSU): +1180 personnel, +7 tanks, +20 AFVs, +68 artillery systems, +2 MLRS, +2 AD systems, +147 UAVs, +210 vehicles/fuel tanks. (Note: SDF provides more specific claims for the Southern front).
