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Historical Intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing

Report Time
2025-04-13 06:54:32Z
10 months ago
Previous (2025-04-13 06:24:42Z)

Military Situation Update: Ukraine (Derived from reports up to Apr 13, 2025, 06:53 UTC)

(Analysis based on intelligence reports, official statements, message feeds, and media analysis dated up to Apr 13, 2025, 06:53 UTC)

I. Strategic & Operational Overview

  • Combat Intensity & Dynamics (Apr 12): High-intensity combat continued with 120 combat clashes recorded across the front (UGS, Apr 13). Russian forces retain the operational initiative on most axes, heavily utilizing air power (KABs), drones, and artillery. The Pokrovsk axis remains the primary focus (31 assaults). Significant activity also noted on Lyman (18 attacks), Toretsk (16 attacks), Kursk Border (23 clashes), Kramatorsk (11 engagements), and Novopavlivsk (5 attacks) axes. Russian sources (WarGonzo, Apr 13) report a recent slight decrease in offensive tempo on the Zaporizhzhia front, though fighting persists.
  • Russian Air/Drone/Artillery Barrage (Apr 12):
    • Russia conducted 135 air strikes (launching 249 KABs), deployed 2,709 kamikaze drones, and executed over 6,600 shelling attacks (including 157 MLRS) (UGS, Apr 13). (Note variation: One UA source cited 382 KABs dropped, including 133 on Kursk).
    • Air strikes targeted settlements in Sumy, Kharkiv, Donetsk (including Pokrovsk axis locations), and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts (UGS, Apr 13). RU strikes reported on UA positions in the Polohy direction (Zaporizhzhia) (Voin DV, Apr 13).
    • Southern Front Fire Activity (Apr 12): Ukrainian Southern Defense Forces reported high Russian fire activity: ~300 artillery strikes and ~500 UAV strikes (including 500 kamikaze drones and 316 drone drops). FPV strikes affected frontline settlements in Mykolaiv, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk. RU air strikes (KAB/NAR) targeted civilian areas, including 26 NARs on Huliaipole. (UA SDF, Apr 13). RU sources claim ongoing UA MLRS attacks on civilian areas in Zaporizhzhia (Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 13).
    • Nikopol District, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Continued Russian attacks reported evening Apr 12 (drones damaged residential building/enterprise) and morning Apr 13 (heavy artillery/FPV drones) (Lysak/Vilkul, Apr 13).
    • Kharkiv Oblast (Apr 12): Multiple KAB strikes damaged residential buildings/infrastructure; multiple civilians injured in Kupyansk and Slatyne. Unexploded KABs found (Kharkiv OVA, Apr 13).
    • Ongoing Air Threats (Apr 13):
      • Active RU tactical aviation launching KABs towards Sumy Oblast (UA AF, 06:27 UTC) and Kharkiv Oblast (UA AF, 06:30 UTC).
      • Threat of RU strike UAVs active in Kharkiv Oblast (UA AF, 05:43 UTC).
      • Alert for RU tactical aviation activity and air strike threat for frontline oblasts on NE and E fronts (UA AF, 06:09 UTC, 06:43 UTC).
  • Ukrainian Counter-Strikes (Apr 12): Ukrainian forces reportedly hit 7 Russian personnel/equipment concentration areas, 6 artillery systems, 2 command posts, and 3 air defense systems (UGS, Apr 13). UA 65th Mech Bde reported drone strikes destroying RU BMP, engineering vehicle, and truck in rear areas (Sternenko, Apr 13).
  • Russian Main Objectives: Assessed as capturing remaining Donbas (focus on Pokrovsk, Toretsk) and expanding the border buffer zone (Kursk/Sumy/Belgorod axes). Secondary efforts towards Dnipropetrovsk border (Novopavlivsk axis) and Kupyansk. Potential plan to approach Konstantinovka from the south via Toretsk gains (Dva Mayora, Apr 13). OSUV "Khortytsia" reports Russia actively conducting reconnaissance of potential Oskil River crossing points on the Kupyansk axis (Operatyvnyi ZSU, Apr 13).
  • Personnel Losses & Claims (Apr 12):
    • Ukrainian Claim (Total RU Losses): Estimated +1220 Russian personnel neutralized. Equipment losses claimed include +12 tanks, +33 APVs, +71 artillery systems, +1 AD system, +147 UAVs, +143 vehicles & fuel tanks, +1 special equipment, +1 TOS heavy flamethrower (UGS, Apr 13).
    • Significant Russian Claim (Kursk): Persists regarding >500 Ukrainian personnel surrendered in Kursk Oblast since start of UA cross-border ops (TASS/Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 13). Requires independent verification.
    • RU Claim (UA Recruitment): RU sources claim <500 UA personnel aged 18-24 signed contracts in past two months (RVvoenkor, Apr 13).
    • RU Claim (Kupyansk): Two groups of foreign mercenaries (part of UA Mountain Assault Bde) allegedly destroyed in forest massif (Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 13). Requires verification.
  • Potential Long-Range UA Activity: Air danger regime declared across Lipetsk Oblast, Russia (Governor Artamonov, 06:47 UTC Apr 13), potentially indicating UA drone operations deep within Russia.

II. Key Frontline Developments (Based on UGS 08:00 Apr 13 for Apr 12 & subsequent reports/claims)

  • Kursk Operational Zone (Border):
    • High Intensity: 23 combat clashes reported (UGS, Apr 13). Russian forces conducted 71 air strikes (133 KABs) and 542 artillery attacks (15 MLRS) (UGS, Apr 13).
    • Territorial Situation: Contested areas persist. RU sources claim ongoing fighting near Oleshnia and Hornal (Kursk) as RU forces attempt to push UA units out (WarGonzo, Apr 13). Fighting continues near Loknya (Sumy) with RU forces reportedly expanding presence (WarGonzo, Apr 13). RU claim on Zhuravka (Sumy) persists. DeepState previously confirmed RU advances in Kursk Oblast (Apr 12).
    • Ukrainian Operations: Confirmed use of "Baba Yaga" heavy hexacopters in Belgorod Oblast (Operatyvnyi ZSU, Apr 13).
    • Significant RU Claims: >500 UA personnel captured (TASS/Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 13). Alleged UA atrocity (torture/killing of civilian) in Honcharivka (Kursk) (RVvoenkor, Apr 13).
  • Belgorod Operational Zone (Border): Fighting reported near Demidovka (RU claim no current UA presence) and Popovka (RU claim UA presence maintained) (WarGonzo, Apr 13).
  • Kharkiv Axis: Activity primarily Russian DRG attempts; 2 DRG groups stopped near Ridne and Tykhe (UGS, Apr 13). Ongoing threat of Russian strike UAVs and KAB launches reported (UA AF, 05:43 & 06:30 UTC Apr 13). RU claim of drone ramming/destroying UA heavy quadcopter over Kharkiv Oblast (Colonelcassad, Apr 13).
  • Kupyansk Axis: 2 Russian attacks repelled near Zahryzove and Nova Kruhlyakivka (UGS, Apr 13). OSUV "Khortytsia" reports RU reconnaissance of Oskil River crossing points; UA taking countermeasures (Operatyvnyi ZSU, Apr 13). Previous DeepState confirmation of RU advance near Kotliarivka (Apr 11). Kupyansk city heavily shelled Apr 12; multiple civilians injured (Kharkiv OVA, Apr 13). RU claims destroying two groups of foreign mercenaries here (Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 13).
  • Lyman Axis: High Intensity: 18 Russian attacks repelled near Nadiia, Tverdokhlibove, Novomykhailivka, Katerynivka, Nove, and towards Olhivka, Hrekivka, Zelena Dolyna, Zarichne, Torske (UGS, Apr 13). DeepState previously confirmed RU advance near Yampolivka (Apr 12).
  • Siversk Axis: 3 Russian attacks repelled towards Hryhorivka and near Bilohorivka (UGS, Apr 13).
  • Kramatorsk Axis (incl. Chasiv Yar): 11 combat engagements recorded near Chasiv Yar, towards Predtechyne, and west of Andriivka (UGS, Apr 13). Heavy fighting continues on outskirts of Chasiv Yar.
  • Toretsk Axis: High Intensity: 16 Russian attacks occurred near Dachne, Dyliivka, Shcherbynivka, and Toretsk (UGS, Apr 13). UA sources (Butusov Plus, Apr 13) report repelling a Russian assault utilizing unarmored civilian vehicles (Bukhankas, Nivas, UAZs), attributing this to RU armor shortages but noting sufficient RU manpower. Drone operators from UA 12th Azov Brigade targeted survivors. Russian claims of liberating Kalynove persist (Dva Mayora, Apr 13). RU sources indicate offensive aiming towards Konstantinovka from the south (Dva Mayora, Apr 13).
  • Pokrovsk Axis: Highest Intensity: 31 Russian assaults stopped towards multiple settlements including Kalynove, Yelyzavetivka, Novoserhiivka, Kotliarivka (UGS, Apr 13). DeepState previously confirmed RU advance near Valentynivka (Apr 12). RU sources (WarGonzo, Apr 13) report continued heavy fighting, meeting engagements and UA counterattacks in Kostiantynopil/Kotlyne and Shevchenko. RU claims advances with heavy fighting near Udachne and successes in Kalynove. Ukrainian 46th Airmobile Brigade reported successful defense near Kurakhove (Apr 5-12). RU sources highlight intense UA drone activity; request crowdfunding for Mavic drone for RU forces here, citing "catastrophically large number" of UA UAVs (Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 13).
  • Novopavlivsk Axis: 5 Russian attacks repelled near Kostiantynopil and towards Shevchenko (UGS, Apr 13). RU sources report continued pressure towards Bohatyr with fierce UA resistance (WarGonzo, Apr 13). Previous RU claim of destroying US AN/TPQ-48/50 radar near Bohatyr.
  • Huliaipole Axis: 1 unsuccessful Russian attack towards Shevchenko (UA SDF, Apr 13). UGS reported no offensive actions. RU forces attacked Huliaipole with 26 NARs Apr 12 (UA SDF, Apr 13).
  • Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia): 1 Russian attack repelled towards Mali Shcherbaky (UGS/UA SDF, Apr 13). RU sources note slightly reduced offensive tempo but continued fighting (WarGonzo, Apr 13). RU sources claim UA MLRS attacks in Polohivskyi district (Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 13). RU sources claim air strikes on UA positions in Polohy direction (Voin DV, Apr 13).
  • Prydniprovsky Axis (Left Bank Kherson): 4 unsuccessful Russian attempts to advance (UGS, Apr 13). Bridgehead maintained near Krynky.

III. Air, Missile & Drone Activity Synopsis

  • Overnight Drone Attack (Apr 12-13):
    • Ukrainian Claim (Total): Russia launched 43 Shahed/other type UAVs and 12 imitator drones. UA forces shot down 43 Shahed/other type UAVs. The 12 imitator drones were "locationally lost" (UA AF, Apr 13 / Tsaplienko, Apr 13).
    • Kyiv Area: 19/30 UAVs shot down by AD. No impacts/casualties in city limits (KMVA, Apr 13).
  • Ukrainian Air Force: Second confirmed F-16 combat loss and pilot KIA (Major Pavlo Ivanov) occurred on April 12.
  • Russian Air Power: Continued heavy KAB use (249 dropped Apr 12 per UGS). Ongoing KAB launches reported towards Sumy Oblast (UA AF, 06:27 UTC) and Kharkiv Oblast (UA AF, 06:30 UTC). Active tactical aviation on NE and E fronts (UA AF, 06:09 & 06:43 UTC). Su-25 activity confirmed over Zaporizhzhia front (Voin DV, Apr 13).
  • Russian Drone Operations: Extremely high tempo (2709 kamikaze drones used Apr 12 per UGS). RU unit (41 MSP/44 AC) claimed ramming/destroying UA heavy quadcopter over Kharkiv Oblast (Colonelcassad, Apr 13). RU UAV operators on Pokrovsk axis requesting Mavic drone reinforcement due to high UA drone presence (Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 13). Ongoing counter-UAV efforts noted (WarGonzo, Apr 13).
  • Ukrainian Drone Operations: Increased deployment of heavy "Baba Yaga" hexacopters confirmed in Belgorod Oblast. Successful strikes by units like 12th Azov (Toretsk) and 65th Mech (Rear areas). Claimed destruction of 147 RU UAVs on Apr 12 (UGS). High activity noted by RU sources on Pokrovsk axis.
  • Air Defense:
    • Ukraine: Claimed 43 Shahed shootdowns overnight. AD active over Kyiv (19 claimed locally). Claimed destruction of 3 RU AD systems on Apr 12.
    • Russia: Claimed interception of 13 Ukrainian UAVs overnight Apr 12-13 (RU MoD). UA claimed destruction of 1 RU AD system on Apr 12.
  • Internal Russian Incidents: Orenburg electrical substation explosion/fire early Apr 13 (official cause: short circuit). Air danger declared across Lipetsk Oblast (06:47 UTC Apr 13).

IV. Naval Situation

  • Black Sea / Azov Sea: No Russian missile carriers deployed as of morning Apr 13 (Ukrainian Navy).
  • Mediterranean Sea: 3 Russian warships remain, including 3 Kalibr carriers (total potential salvo: 26 missiles).

V. Capabilities & Logistics

  • Ukraine:
    • Air Defense: Demonstrated capability against mass drone attack (43 shootdowns claimed). Potential counter-battery capability degradation due to claimed loss of US radar near Bohatyr persists.
    • Ground Forces: Maintaining defense under pressure. Confirmed F-16 attrition. Utilizing drones effectively (Azov, 65th Mech). Potential significant personnel loss if RU claim of >500 captures in Kursk is verified.
    • Drones: High operational tempo confirmed by RU sources (Pokrovsk). Confirmed use of heavy hexacopters cross-border. Claimed destruction of 147 RU UAVs Apr 12. UA 65th Mech Bde destroying RU equipment in rear areas.
    • Domestic Production: Highlighted achievements in domestic arms production (40% of arms used are Ukrainian), innovation (AI), international cooperation (Operatyvnyi ZSU promo, Apr 13).
    • Counter-Recon: Taking measures against RU reconnaissance of Oskil River crossing points (Kupyansk axis).
  • Russia:
    • Air/Drone: Leveraging air superiority (KABs). Extensive drone use. Claimed drone-vs-drone capability (Kharkiv).
    • Ground Forces: Continued multi-pronged assaults. Reported use of unarmored civilian vehicles for assaults (Toretsk axis), possibly indicating armored vehicle shortages but sufficient manpower (Butusov Plus, Apr 13). Reported need for basic ISR drones (Mavic) on key Pokrovsk axis due to high UA drone activity (Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 13).
    • Logistics: Actively conducting reconnaissance for potential Oskil River crossings (Kupyansk axis), indicating possible future operational planning.

VI. Civilian Impact & Ethical Considerations

  • Ongoing Threats: Active KAB threat to Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts (Apr 13). Ongoing strike UAV threat in Kharkiv Oblast. Air strike threat for NE/E frontline oblasts. Persistent shelling/drone attacks on border/frontline settlements. RU claim of UA MLRS attacks on civilian areas in Zaporizhzhia.
  • Recent Incidents (Apr 12-13):
    • Nikopol District: Damage to residential building/enterprise (drones/arty).
    • Kharkiv Oblast: Civilian injuries, damage to homes/infrastructure (KABs/drones).
    • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: RU air/arty/drone strikes reported, including 26 NARs on Huliaipole (civilian areas).
  • Alleged Atrocities: RU sources claim UA forces tortured/killed a civilian in Honcharivka, Kursk Oblast (RVvoenkor, Apr 13). Requires verification.
  • Russia: Power outages in Orenburg (substation fire). Air danger declared in Lipetsk Oblast.

VII. Geopolitical Context & International Support

  • Negotiations/Statements: Trump comments negotiations "going okay," time to "put up or shut up" (Sternenko, Apr 13).
  • International Support: Netherlands announced $3.5 Billion aid package for Ukraine for the next year, citing uncertainty over potential future US policy (Tsaplienko, Apr 13).
Previous (2025-04-13 06:24:42Z)

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