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Historical Intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing

Report Time
2025-04-13 05:24:36Z
10 months ago
Previous (2025-04-13 04:54:22Z)

Military Situation Update: Ukraine (Derived from reports up to Apr 13, 2025, 05:23 UTC)

(Analysis based on intelligence reports, official statements, message feeds, and media analysis dated up to Apr 13, 2025, 05:23 UTC)

I. Strategic & Operational Overview

  • Combat Intensity & Dynamics (Apr 12): High-intensity combat persisted with 120 combat clashes recorded across the front (UGS, Apr 13). Russian forces maintain the operational initiative on most axes, continuing heavy reliance on air power (KABs), drones, and artillery. The Pokrovsk axis remains the primary focus of Russian offensive efforts and experienced the highest number of assaults. Significant activity also persists on the Lyman, Toretsk, Kursk Border, and Kramatorsk axes.
  • Russian Air/Drone/Artillery Barrage (Apr 12):
    • Russia conducted 135 air strikes (launching 249 KABs), deployed 2,709 kamikaze drones, and executed over 6,600 shelling attacks (including 157 MLRS) against Ukrainian positions and populated areas (UGS, Apr 13).
    • Specific air strikes targeted settlements in Sumy, Kharkiv, Donetsk (including Pokrovsk axis locations like Hrodivka, Novopavlivka), and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts (UGS, Apr 13).
    • Zaporizhzhia Axis: Ukrainian sources previously reported 511 Russian strikes on 11 settlements on Apr 12, including air strikes, 355 UAV attacks, MLRS, and artillery (Zaporizhzhia OVA, Apr 13).
    • Nikopol District, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Continued Russian attacks reported evening Apr 12 (drones on Nikopol, Marhanetska, Pokrovska hromadas damaging residential building/enterprise) and morning Apr 13 (heavy artillery/FPV drones on Marhanetska hromada) (Lysak/Vilkul, Apr 13).
    • Ongoing KAB Threat: Active Russian tactical aviation launching KABs towards Sumy Oblast continued into early Apr 13.
  • Ukrainian Counter-Strikes (Apr 12): Ukrainian aviation, missile troops, and artillery reportedly hit 7 Russian personnel/equipment concentration areas, 6 artillery systems, 2 command posts, and 3 air defense systems (UGS, Apr 13).
  • Russian Main Objectives: Assessed as capturing the remainder of Donbas (focus on Pokrovsk and Toretsk) and expanding the border buffer zone (Kursk/Sumy/Belgorod axes). Secondary efforts push towards the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border (Novopavlivsk axis) and around Kupyansk. Russian sources indicate a potential plan to approach Konstantinovka from the south via the Toretsk axis gains (Dva Mayora, Apr 13).
  • Personnel Losses & Claims (Apr 12):
    • Ukrainian Claim: Estimated +1220 Russian personnel neutralized. Equipment losses claimed include +12 tanks, +33 APVs, +71 artillery systems, +1 AD system, +147 UAVs, +143 vehicles & fuel tanks, +1 special equipment, +1 TOS heavy flamethrower (UGS, Apr 13).
    • Significant Russian Claim: Persists regarding >500 Ukrainian personnel surrendered in Kursk Oblast (TASS, Apr 13). Requires independent verification.

II. Key Frontline Developments (Based on UGS 08:00 Apr 13 Update for Apr 12)

  • Kursk Operational Zone (Border):
    • High Intensity: 23 combat clashes reported. Russian forces conducted 71 air strikes (133 KABs) and 542 artillery attacks (15 MLRS).
    • Territorial Situation: Contested areas persist. Russian sources claimed completing the "Kursk operation" but also indicated Ukrainian forces maintain positions near the border at Hornal and Oleshnia (Kursk) (Dva Mayora). Russian claim on Zhuravka (Sumy) persists. Fighting previously reported near Popovka/Demidovka (Belgorod). DeepState previously confirmed Russian advances in Kursk Oblast (Apr 12).
    • Ukrainian Operations: Confirmed use of "Baba Yaga" heavy hexacopters in Belgorod Oblast reported (Operatyvnyi ZSU, Apr 13). Cross-border drone operations likely continue.
    • Significant RU Claim: >500 UA personnel captured (TASS, Apr 13).
    • Ukrainian Officer KIA: Major Mykhailo Maryna (704th CBRN Regiment) confirmed KIA in RU strike on Sumy command post.
  • Kharkiv Axis: Activity primarily involved Russian DRG attempts; 2 DRG groups stopped near Ridne and Tykhe.
  • Kupyansk Axis: 2 Russian attacks repelled near Zahryzove and Nova Kruhlyakivka. Previous DeepState confirmation of RU advance near Kotliarivka (Apr 11). Russian forces gradually expanding control N of Kupyansk (Dva Mayora).
  • Lyman Axis: High Intensity: 18 Russian attacks repelled near Nadiia, Tverdokhlibove, Novomykhailivka, Katerynivka, Nove, and towards Olhivka, Hrekivka, Zelena Dolyna, Zarichne, Torske. DeepState previously confirmed Russian advance near Yampolivka (Apr 12).
  • Siversk Axis: 3 Russian attacks repelled towards Hryhorivka and near Bilohorivka.
  • Kramatorsk Axis (incl. Chasiv Yar): 11 combat engagements recorded near Chasiv Yar, towards Predtechyne, and west of Andriivka. Heavy fighting continues on the outskirts of Chasiv Yar. Russian VDV units (98th Division) claimed destroying UA pickup & Valkyrie UAV in the area (Apr 13).
  • Toretsk Axis: High Intensity: 16 Russian attacks occurred near Dachne, Dyliivka, Shcherbynivka, and Toretsk. Russian claims of liberating Kalynove persist (Dva Mayora, Apr 13). Russian sources indicate offensive operations on multiple parts of this front, aiming towards Konstantinovka from the south (Dva Mayora, Apr 13). Reports of RU push from Dzerzhynsk towards Nelipovka/Konstantinivka previously treated cautiously.
  • Pokrovsk Axis: Highest Intensity: 31 Russian assaults stopped towards Kalynove, Yelyzavetivka, Uspenivka, Lysivka, Kotlyne, Novoserhiivka, Troitske, Kotliarivka, Preobrazhenka, Vodyane Druhe, Novoukrainka, Andriivka, and near Sribne. DeepState previously confirmed Russian advance near Valentynivka (Apr 12). Ukrainian 46th Airmobile Brigade reported successful defense near Kurakhove, claiming 164 RU casualties and equipment losses (Apr 5-12).
  • Novopavlivsk Axis: 5 Russian attacks repelled near Kostiantynopil and towards Shevchenko. Significant RU Claim: Destruction of a US-made AN/TPQ-48/50 counter-battery radar near Bohatyr using Spetsnaz drones (Apr 13). Russian forces previously reported advancing towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border, capturing heights near Bohatyr (Dva Mayora). Maximalist RU claims of liberating ~30 sq km near Rozdolne/Andreevka (Apr 12) require verification.
  • Huliaipole Axis: No Russian offensive actions reported on Apr 12.
  • Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia): 1 Russian attack repelled towards Mali Shcherbaky. Intense Russian shelling/drone activity previously reported (511 strikes Apr 12 per UA). Positional fighting previously reported near Kamenske/Shcherbaky. Russian air (Su-25) and drone strikes active.
  • Prydniprovsky Axis (Left Bank Kherson): 4 unsuccessful Russian attempts to advance towards Ukrainian positions. Frontline stagnation previously reported, Ukrainian bridgehead maintained near Krynky.
  • Volyn & Polissia Axis: No signs of Russian offensive group formation detected.

III. Air, Missile & Drone Activity Synopsis

  • Ukrainian Air Force: Operating F-16s. Second confirmed F-16 combat loss and pilot KIA (Major Pavlo Ivanov) occurred on April 12, reportedly from RU missile(s).
  • Russian Air Power: Continued heavy use of KABs (249 dropped Apr 12 per UGS), with ongoing threat/launches towards Sumy Oblast early Apr 13. Su-25 activity confirmed over Zaporizhzhia front.
  • Russian Drone Operations: Extremely high tempo (2709 kamikaze drones used Apr 12 per UGS). Continued strikes on Nikopol District (Apr 12-13). Previous report cited >800 kamikaze drones on Apr 12. 355 UAV attacks reported in Zaporizhzhia alone Apr 12. Claimed success against high-value targets (US radar near Bohatyr, UA comms, UA pickup near Chasiv Yar).
  • Ukrainian Drone Operations: Increased deployment of heavy "Baba Yaga" hexacopters confirmed in Belgorod Oblast. Successful strikes reported by units like 46th Brigade (Pokrovsk). Claimed destruction of 147 RU UAVs on Apr 12 (UGS). Successful strikes within Russia previously confirmed (Krasnodar railway disruption Apr 11-12).
  • Russian Air Defense: Actively engaging UA UAVs. Claimed interception of 13 Ukrainian UAVs overnight Apr 12-13 (12 over Rostov Oblast, 1 over Belgorod Oblast) (RU MoD/Dnevnik Desantnika). Claimed shootdown of UA Valkyrie UAV near Chasiv Yar. UA claimed destruction of 1 RU AD system on Apr 12.
  • Internal Russian Incidents (Potential UA Actions): Orenburg electrical substation explosion/fire (extinguished) early Apr 13, near TEC plant. Cause officially cited as short circuit, but timing/nature noted (Sternenko, ASTRA). Previous reports of transport "terrorism" (Apr 13).

IV. Naval Situation

  • Black Sea / Azov Sea: No Russian missile carriers reported deployed as of morning Apr 13 (Ukrainian Navy). No immediate Kalibr threat from these waters.
  • Mediterranean Sea: 3 Russian warships remain deployed, including 3 Kalibr carriers with a potential total salvo of 26 missiles.

V. Capabilities & Logistics

  • Ukraine:
    • Air Defense: Under severe pressure from KABs/drones. Potential significant degradation of counter-battery capability due to claimed loss of US AN/TPQ-48/50 radar near Bohatyr (Novopavlivsk axis). Actively seeking more Western AD systems. Claimed destruction of 3 RU AD systems on Apr 12.
    • Ground Forces: Maintaining defense under intense pressure, particularly on Pokrovsk, Lyman, Toretsk, Kursk axes. Confirmed F-16 attrition. Utilizing various technologies (drones, UGVs). Claimed destruction of 71 RU artillery systems on Apr 12. Potential significant personnel loss if RU claim of >500 captures in Kursk is accurate.
    • Drones: Confirmed increased use of heavy hexacopters for cross-border operations (Belgorod). Claimed destruction of 147 RU UAVs on Apr 12. UK/Norway funding ($580M) for FPV drones announced Apr 11.
  • Russia:
    • Air/Drone: Leveraging air superiority with KABs (high volume). Extensive and integrated drone usage (kamikaze, recon, targeting high-value assets). Tactical adaptation observed.
    • Ground Forces: Multi-pronged assaults continue. Use of Spetsnaz for specific missions (radar destruction claim). Foreign fighters confirmed. Vulnerabilities noted (older equipment, crowdfunding needs). Claimed personnel losses: 1220 KIA/WIA on Apr 12 (UA claim).
    • Air Defense: Claimed interceptions of UA drones. Claimed +1 AD system destroyed on Apr 12 (UA claim).

VI. Civilian Impact & Ethical Considerations

  • Ongoing Threats: Active KAB threat to Sumy Oblast (Apr 13). Persistent shelling and drone attacks on front-line and border settlements across multiple regions.
  • Recent Incidents (Apr 12-13):
    • Nikopol District (Dnipropetrovsk): Russian drone/artillery attacks damaged 5-story residential building and enterprise (Lysak/Vilkul).
    • Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Apr 12): Previous reports indicated 511 RU strikes caused damage to civilian property across 11 settlements (Zaporizhzhia OVA).
    • Kursk Oblast (RU Allegation): Previous RU allegations of UA atrocities against civilians in Makhnovka and Plehovo require verification.
  • Russia: Power outages reported in Orenburg due to electrical substation explosion/fire (Apr 13); fire extinguished, cause officially short circuit but timing suspicious. Disruption to rail traffic in Krasnodar Krai due to UAV fragment damage (Apr 11-12).

VII. Geopolitical Context

  • Negotiations/Statements: Ongoing discussion around potential US-Russia talks (Trump envoy visit mentioned previously). Trump commented negotiations are "going okay" but stated it's time to "put up or shut up" (Apr 13). Russian Ambassador to UK stated Russia seeks a "full-scale solution," not just a ceasefire for show (Apr 13).
  • International Support: UK/Norway announced $580M aid package (Apr 11) for FPV drones, repair/maintenance, radar, anti-tank mines. Previous Ramstein follow-up detailed significant European pledges.
Previous (2025-04-13 04:54:22Z)

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