Military Situation Update: Ukraine (Apr 12, 2025, 12:23 UTC)
(Derived from intelligence reports, official statements, message feeds, and media analysis dated Apr 9, 2025, 15:59 UTC to Apr 12, 2025, 12:23 UTC)
I. Strategic & Operational Overview
Intensity: High intensity combat continues, particularly on the Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Lyman, and Kursk Border axes. On April 11, 149 combat clashes were reported across the front (UGS). The Pokrovsk axis saw the highest number of repelled attacks (40 on Apr 11), followed by Lyman (25), Kursk Border (21), and Toretsk (14).
Russian Offensive Pressure: Russia maintains significant pressure through extensive air, drone, and artillery attacks. On April 11 alone, Russia conducted 101 air strikes (using 183 KABs), employed 2789 kamikaze drones, and executed over 6400 shelling attacks (UGS). Specific high-pressure zones include the Kursk border area (55 air strikes/90 KABs on Apr 11) and the Kharkiv axis (4 air attacks/11 KABs, 130 drones, 717 shelling incidents on Apr 11). Russian sources report ongoing offensive operations on the South Donetsk direction, claiming pushes towards the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border near Shevchenko, Volnoe Pole, Veseloe, and Bohatyr.
Casualty Claims (Recent):
Ukrainian Claims (Apr 11-12): Neutralization of 1240 RU personnel, 11 tanks, 49 artillery systems (UGS). Southern Command reported 72 RU KIA and destruction of 8 artillery systems, 1 Supercam UAV. OTU Kharkiv reported 90 RU personnel neutralized/wounded and 112 OVT units destroyed/damaged.
Russian Claims (Apr 11-12): Neutralization of 1290 UA personnel across all fronts. Specific claims include >175 UA KIA in the Kursk direction (past 24h). RU MoD also released highly inflated cumulative claims for the Kursk direction (over 73,820 personnel losses since operations began) and equipment losses (over 5,500 units of Western-supplied equipment worth $7.8bn, claimed by RIA Novosti citing Sever Group).
II. Frontline Developments
Kursk/Sumy Border: Ongoing Russian attempts to secure footholds near Novyen'ke, Basivka, Zhuravka (Sumy) using small assault groups (DPSU). Heavy fighting and RU reinforcements reported near Oleshnia (Kursk). Russian sources claim advances north of Hornal (Kursk). RU MoD claims hitting elements of 8 Ukrainian brigades near Hornal and Oleshnia and causing >175 UA KIA in the past 24 hours.
Lyman Axis: Ukrainian forces repelled 25 Russian attacks (Apr 11). Intense fighting reported near Torske, situation described as difficult.
Russian Claims: Significant offensive claims (requiring verification) include advances W of Aleksandropol/Panteleimonivka, clearance of Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk) center, and advances towards Nelepivka. Recent claims (Apr 12) include a 700m advance north of Druzhba towards Dachne following an armored attack, and expansion of control near Krymske towards Dachne. Claimed destruction of 5x UA M113 APCs near Dzerzhinsk. Claimed destruction of UA UAV command post near Shcherbynivka.
Ukrainian Actions: 28th Mechanized Brigade reported repelling a Russian armored column assault (Apr 12), destroying armor and engaging dismounted infantry. Video shows drone strikes by various UA units supporting the defense.
Russian Claims: DeepState confirms RU advance in Kalynove and near Novooleksandrivka. Russian sources claim full capture and clearance of Kalynove (Apr 11-12) and advances near Vozdvyzhenka and Tarasivka. Further claim (Apr 12) of eastward advance NE of Novooleksandrivka towards UA defenses north of Kalynove. Claimed destruction of 2x US M109A6 Paladin SPGs near Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk). Claimed strike on UA engineering unit temporary location in Kramatorsk, destroying an IMR-2M engineer vehicle (Apr 12).
Ukrainian Actions: 152nd Jaeger Brigade (+others) reportedly counter-attacked and retook part of Kotlyne, capturing several Russian POWs (Apr 12).
Novopavlivsk / South Donetsk Axis: Ukrainian forces repelled 6 RU attacks near Rozlyv, Rozdolne (Apr 11).
Russian Claims: Significant claims (requiring verification) include advances near Rozdolne/Andreevka towards Bohatyr and Oleksiivka; reaching Troitske center; establishing control over Kostiantynopil. Recent claims (Apr 11-12) detail significant advances near Rozdolne and Andriivka, along the T-05-18 highway, and towards Bohatyr. Claims of expansion of control zone approaching Shevchenko (W of Burlatske), pushing towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border. Claimed destruction of US AN/TPQ-48/50 radar near Bohatyr. Claimed capture of Polish T-72M1 tank (video corroborated). Claimed repelling UA counter-attack near Razdolne, destroying 4+ UA Kozak vehicles.
Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia): Russian reserves reportedly transferred to this direction. Situation described as tense near Stepove, Mali Shcherbaky, Lobkove.
Kherson Axis (Left Bank): Ukrainian bridgehead near Krynky maintained. Ukrainian 137th Marine Battalion reported repelling Russian MT-LB assault with drones (Apr 12). RU MoD claims destruction of a UA UAV position near Kakhovka.
III. Air, Missile & Drone Activity
Ukrainian F-16 Loss: Ukrainian Air Force confirmed the death of Captain Pavlo Ivanov (age 26, corrected from 21) during a combat mission flying an F-16 on April 12. An investigation into the circumstances is underway. President Zelenskyy acknowledged the loss. This confirms operational use and loss of F-16 aircraft and highly trained pilots. Russian sources amplified the report, with some speculating friendly fire (possibly involving Patriot systems) or attributing it to actions during the large-scale RU air attack overnight Apr 11-12.
Russian Air Attacks (Night Apr 11-12): Russia launched 88 air targets, primarily Shahed-type drones and imitators. Ukrainian Air Force reported 56 drones shot down. Impacts and debris caused damage and casualties:
Kyiv: Warehouse fire, house destroyed, 3 civilians injured.
Russian Guided Air Bomb (KAB) Use: Remains high. 183 KABs used against Ukraine proper (Apr 11, UGS); 90 KABs in Kursk zone (Apr 11, UGS); 11 KABs on Kharkiv axis (Apr 11, OTU Kharkiv). Threat persists, with UA AF reporting RU tactical aviation activity and KAB threats on NE/E fronts (Apr 12).
Claimed Russian Strategic Strikes (Apr 11-12): RU MoD claims strikes on aviation enterprises, military airfield/hydroport infrastructure, repair workshops, ammo depots, and 153 UA concentration areas. RU sources claim strike on warehouses near Sviatoshynskyi airfield (Kyiv), potentially Antonov plant.
Claimed Ukrainian Strikes on RU Energy (Apr 11-12): RU MoD claims 5 UA attacks on energy facilities, citing damage in Occupied Zaporizhzhia, Krasnodar Krai (railway wiring near Vasyurinskaya - confirmed), and Kursk Oblast. Russia reportedly provided Turkey with a list detailing alleged UA attacks on RU energy facilities (Lavrov, Apr 12).
Russian Air Defence Claims (Past 24h): RU MoD claims interception of 154 UA UAVs, 6 JDAM bombs, 5 HIMARS rockets. Claims 36 UA UAVs intercepted over Russia overnight Apr 11-12.
Ukrainian Air/Drone Capabilities: Confirmed F-16 operational loss. Active use of MiG-29 (claimed AASM Hammer strike). Continued high demand for air defense (Patriot systems). Active drone/FPV use by multiple brigades (3rd Assault, 46th Airmobile, 35th Marines, Omega NGU, 28th Mech, 137th Marines, 152nd Jaeger etc.) for reconnaissance and strikes on armor, infantry, command posts, and equipment. Claims of successful Lancet drone interceptions.
IV. Capabilities & Support
International Support:
Norway: Pledged €830 Million for the preparation and equipping of a Ukrainian brigade, in cooperation with Nordic/Baltic states (Apr 12). This aims to reinforce existing brigades.
Ramstein Format (Apr 11): Total aid announced since previous meeting reportedly exceeds €21 Billion. Key pledges include significant AD systems (Germany: 4 IRIS-T systems + 300 missiles, 30 Patriot missiles; Netherlands: €150M), drones (UK/Norway: $580M package), ammo (Lithuania: €20M; Estonia: 10,000 rounds), armor (Germany: 15 Leopard 1, 25 Marders), and radars (Germany: 1100 ground surveillance radars). A new EW Coalition led by Germany was established.
US Weapons Systems: US replacement of ATACMS with new PrSM missiles raises possibility of older ATACMS potentially being transferred to allies or Ukraine (Russian source analysis). PrSM offers longer range (>400km vs 300km) and higher launcher capacity.
V. Diplomatic & Geopolitical
NATO Warning: NATO SecGen Rutte warned Russia may be considering placing nuclear weapons in space capable of destroying satellites.
US-Russia Dialogue: Reports of potential US-Russia discussions involving Trump envoy Witcoff continue. Lavrov stated Moscow and Washington are discussing US proposals for joint projects. Lavrov also denied any direct/indirect UA-RU contacts at the Antalya Diplomacy Forum.
Russia-Turkey: FMs Lavrov and Fidan met; discussed bilateral relations, Ukraine, Black Sea shipping. Russia provided Turkey with a list of alleged UA attacks on Russian energy infrastructure.
US-Iran: Negotiations reported starting in Oman (mediated), focused on the nuclear issue.
