Military Situation Update: Ukraine (Apr 12, 2025, 01:53 UTC)
(Derived from intelligence reports, official statements, and message feeds dated up to Apr 12, 2025, 01:44 UTC)
I. Strategic & Operational Context
Overall Intensity: High intensity persists across the front. 126 combat clashes reported since the start of Apr 11 (UGS 19:00 UTC). Russian forces continue extensive air, drone, and artillery attacks.
Russian Air/Artillery Pressure: Russia conducted 56 air strikes (launching 56 KABs), utilized over 900 kamikaze drones, and executed approx. 5,000 shelling attacks against Ukrainian positions and populated areas since the start of Apr 11 (UGS). Russian MoD claims 8 group strikes (air/sea precision weapons, UAVs) from Apr 5-11 targeting Ukrainian military infrastructure.
Diplomatic/Political/Information Operations:
US Envoy/Peace Proposals: Reports indicated US Special Envoy Witcoff discussed a potential ceasefire involving Ukraine ceding control of four oblasts to Russia. US Special Representative Keith Kellogg proposed a framework for a post-ceasefire allied "resiliency force" (without US troops) with defined areas of responsibility to support Ukrainian sovereignty, clarifying earlier media reports (The Times) that misinterpreted his statements as suggesting a division of Ukraine similar to post-WWII Berlin. Kellogg explicitly denied suggesting a partition of Ukraine (Apr 12, 00:01 UTC).
US Ambassador Departure: US Ambassador Brink reportedly left post amid "political disagreements with the Trump administration." US State Department confirmed resignation plan (Apr 10).
UK/France Post-War Planning: UK/France reportedly preparing a detailed plan for potential post-war troop deployments ("calming forces") in Ukraine for presentation to US President Trump. A coalition of approx. 5-6 countries (incl. UK, France, Baltics) reportedly actively considering troop contributions (AFP/RBC-Ukraine, Apr 10), potentially even without US participation. Germany assessed as unlikely participant.
US-Ukraine Resource Talks: Recent negotiations regarding potential US access to Ukrainian mineral resources reported as "antagonistic" with low chance of agreement (Reuters source, amplified by RU sources). The latest US proposal is allegedly significantly stricter, described as "maximalist," demanding priority access to mineral deposits, pooling all state/private company revenue into a joint investment fund, and potentially seeking US DFC control over the gas transit pipeline through Ukraine. The proposal reportedly lacks explicit security guarantees for Ukraine. President Zelenskyy maintains any agreement must be mutually beneficial and aid economic modernization. Kellogg previously noted (via TASS citing The Times) the lack of precise data on Ukrainian mineral resources.
French Military Activity: French military cartographers reported mapping the "Focsani Gate" corridor on the Romania-Ukraine/Moldova border, potentially for contingency planning against Russian advances towards Moldova/Odesa.
Russian Personnel Appointments (Occupied Territories): Oleg Lymar, a decorated veteran of the "Special Military Operation" and participant in the "Time of Heroes" program, appointed advisor to the governor of Sevastopol for projects supporting conflict participants.
Russian Information Operations (Alleged Atrocities): Pro-Russian sources (Colonelcassad, Apr 12, 01:03 UTC) disseminated video testimony (Nikolai Kozlov, resident of Plehovo, Kursk Oblast) alleging Ukrainian forces committed atrocities (looting, mining civilian well causing injuries, killing a civilian man via headshot) during previous cross-border operations. This narrative is framed within a claimed "International Public Tribunal" structure. This serves RU IO objectives to portray Ukrainian forces negatively.
International Support (Ramstein Follow-up):
Total aid announced since previous meeting exceeds €21 Billion.
Key Pledges: Germany (€11B total by 2029: AD, armor, arty, 1100 ground radars); UK (£450M: drones, radar); Norway (€5B increase); Belgium (€1B); Denmark (€900M); Netherlands (€150M); Lithuania (€20M); Estonia (arty rounds).
New EW Coalition established, led by Germany.
Ukrainian Command/Capabilities:
Focus on enhancing AD/EW/mobile fire groups in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast due to increased Russian air attacks. Two additional AD systems planned for the region. 540 billion UAH allocated for EW in the oblast.
Work ongoing on domestic Patriot alternative ("Bars" missile mentioned). Negotiating localization of Western AD production. Received technical documentation for FrankenSAM production. Claimed monthly use of "long Neptune" and domestic ballistic missiles.
II. Air Threats & Activity (Updates as of 01:53 UTC)
Ongoing Shahed Drone Threat (UA AF / Nikolaevsky Vanek / KMVA / Klitschko - Updates up to 01:44 UTC): Multiple groups active across central, northern, and eastern Ukraine. Air alerts widespread. Attack appears ongoing/resuming after a brief lull.
Kyiv City/Oblast:Air alert active. Initial wave approached from NE/N (UA AF 00:25, 01:18). Explosions heard (RBC 01:22). Air Defence (PPO) confirmed active by Mayor Klitschko (01:31). Initial impacts reported (Klitschko 01:44): Fire in non-residential premises (Sviatoshynskyi District), private house fire (Darnytskyi District). Visuals confirm fire/smoke over city (Tsaplienko 01:41). Earlier reports indicated 4+ UAVs over/approaching Kyiv center via Hostomel/Irpin/Ukrainka (NV 01:08, 01:18, 01:22). Lull reported around 01:30 (NV), but superseded by new wave:2 UAVs reported approaching Kyiv via Irpin from Zhytomyr Oblast (NV 01:44), warning of imminent anti-drone activity. Threat persists.
Kharkiv Oblast:Explosions reported in Kharkiv city (RBC 00:58, 01:05, 01:07, 01:08). Confirmed 3 Shahed drone strikes, two impacting the Nemyshlyanskyi district (Mayor Terekhov 01:09). No casualties reported as of 01:22 UTC, damage assessment ongoing (Syniehubov). Assessed clear of UAVs as of 01:08 UTC (NV).
Zhytomyr Oblast:Threat declared (UA AF 01:19). Reports indicate 2 UAVs transited from Zhytomyr Oblast towards Kyiv (NV 01:44).
General Situation (01:30 UTC Report): A brief period where UAVs were reportedly not observed across multiple regions (NV 01:30). However, the renewed activity towards Kyiv (01:44) indicates the overall threat continues. Status in Vinnytsia, Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk Oblasts requires monitoring.
Southern Regions (Odesa/Mykolaiv): Assessed as clear of immediate Shahed threats since ~23:03 UTC (NV Apr 11).
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Air alert ended as of 23:50 UTC (Zaporizhzhia ODA).
Guided Air Bomb (KAB) Threat: RU tactical aviation activity persists. Active KAB launches reported towards Sumy Oblast (UA AF 00:21 UTC, new launches reported 01:19 UTC). UGS reported 56 KABs used across fronts on Apr 11.
Russian Air Defence Activity:
RU MoD released video (Apr 11, 23:59 UTC) showcasing Strela-10M SAM systems from the "Vostok" Group operating 24/7 to protect motor rifle units from UA air attacks. Emphasis on mobile ("shoot-and-scoot") tactics and visual target acquisition. Deployed to protect forward lines, rear areas, and infrastructure.
RU MoD claimed 13 Ukrainian UAVs downed over Kursk/Rostov Oblasts (Apr 11 evening). Claims 1,200 UA drones downed in past week (likely inflated).
Ukrainian Counter-Drone Successes (Apr 11): UA pilots reportedly destroyed RU Lancet and Supercam UAVs over Sumy Oblast.
Potential Ukrainian Deep Strikes: Widespread drone alerts activated across multiple Russian regions reported earlier (Apr 11, 20:50 UTC).
III. Major Frontline Updates (Derived from UGS 19:00 UTC & Sources up to 01:53 UTC)
Kursk/Sumy/Belgorod Border Zone:
UGS (19:00 UTC):17 combat clashes since day start, 2 ongoing. Heavy RU shelling/KABs. New KAB launches towards Sumy Oblast reported 00:21 UTC and 01:19 UTC.
Russian Claims: Ongoing operations in Kursk Oblast. Continued claims of advances near Hornal (Kursk). Capture claim of Zhuravka (Sumy) reported earlier (Apr 10).
Ukrainian Actions: Reported drone strikes (117th TDF, BBS VARTOVI). Successful SSO cross-border operations reported earlier (Apr 11, 16:24 UTC) claiming capture of 14 RU personnel (3 officers) and ~30 RU KIA in Kursk Oblast.
RU Allegations (Kursk): RU sources disseminate video alleging UA forces killed 9 civilians in Makhnovka (Apr 10) and committed atrocities (looting, mining well, killing civilian) in Plehovo (Apr 12). These are serious allegations used for RU information operations and require independent verification.
Russian Claims: Continued methodical advances claimed. Tactical gains claimed near Hrekivka and Novomykhailivka (Apr 11, 16:24 UTC report). Confirmed control of Katerynivka (Apr 10).
Siversk Axis:
UGS (19:00 UTC): 6 RU attacks repelled near Ivano-Darivka, Bilohorivka.
Russian Claims: FAB-1500 strike near Chasiv Yar claimed. Drone strikes on UA transport claimed (RU VDV units). Destruction of multiple UA armored vehicles (Novator, M-80A, BREM-Ch, M113) near Chasiv Yar via fiber-optic FPV drones claimed (Apr 10).
Russian Claims (Apr 11, 21:02 UTC):Broad front offensive on Myrnograd-Toretsk direction claimed, with 6km breakthrough towards N. Nelepivka/Dachne. Claim RU armor reached Nelepivka vicinity near Ivanopillia. Advances claimed W of Panteleimonivka towards Stara Mykolaivka. Fighting on outskirts of Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk). RU claims ~900m advance N of Toretsk (Apr 10). Citing UA sources, RU claims UA needs reinforcements/drones here.
Ukrainian Actions (Apr 11): "Khizhak" Brigade video shows clearing operations on Toretsk outskirts. Presidential Brigade FPV strikes effective. 53rd Mech Bde confirms defensive ops, appealing for drones (Apr 10).
UGS (19:00 UTC):Highest Intensity. 32 RU attacks repelled, 1 ongoing near multiple settlements including Kalynove, Tarasivka, Nadiivka. Significant RU losses claimed by UGS for Apr 11 (347 personnel, various equipment).
DeepState Update (Apr 11, 21:27 UTC): Confirmed Russian advance in Kalynove and near Novooleksandrivka.
Russian Claims (Apr 11, 21:02 UTC): Claim capture and clearance of Kalynove (partially corroborated by DeepState, full control unconfirmed). Activation near Arkhangelske. Heavy FPV use near Valentynivka. Advance towards H-20 highway claimed. Heavy fighting in Lysovka. Claim destruction of two US M109A6 Paladin SPGs. Claimed Uragan MLRS strike on AFU assembly area (Apr 10).
Contested Dynamics: RU source previously claimed UA forces expanded control near Shevchenko (Apr 11, 16:24 UTC report) - requires verification. UA 425th Assault Regt "Skala" claimed clearing Shevchenko (Apr 10).
Russian Claims (Voin DV/Rybar, Apr 12, 01:04 UTC - "Andreevskoe Direction"): Claim significant advances in first 10 days of April near Rozdolne and Andreevka, allegedly liberating ~30 sq km. Claim capture of key strongpoint W of Rozdolne (late March), clearing T-05-18 junction (by Apr 3), advancing N along highway and expanding control W/E (by Apr 10). Claim RU forces are gradually approaching Bohatyr from S and E. Claim advances near Andreevka, reducing a salient N of the settlement and gaining 5 sq km. State this direction shows high tempo RU advance towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border, anticipating battles for Bohatyr and Oleksiivka. These claims require verification and likely represent maximalist Russian reporting. Earlier RU claims (Apr 10) included advances near Bohdanivka, Preobrazhenka, Oleksiivka, Fedorivka, Razdolnoye.
RU Counter-Drone Claims: Claim destruction of 11 UA "Baba Yaga" drones on this direction in past week.
Huliaipole Axis:
UGS (19:00 UTC):3 RU attacks near Pryvilne, Novosilka, Burlatske.
Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia):
UGS (19:00 UTC):4 RU attacks repelled near Mali Shcherbaky.
Ukrainian Reports: Russia transferring reserves. Tense situation near Stepove, Mali Shcherbaky, Lobkove.
Russian Claim (Apr 11, 21:59 UTC): RU drone units ("Viking" / "Bobr") claim destruction of Ukrainian AFV via drone strike. Claimed destruction of UA T-64BV tank via fiber-optic FPV drone in Novodanylivka (Apr 10).
Prydniprovsky Axis (Left Bank Kherson):
UGS (19:00 UTC):7 RU attacks attempted, all unsuccessful.
Russian Claims: Artillery strike on UA UAV position near Kakhovka claimed. Claimed RU FPV interception of 4 UA recon UAVs (Leleka/Furia) (Apr 10).
IV. Capabilities & Support
Ukrainian:
Air Defense: Receiving systems/munitions via Ramstein. Focus on bolstering Dnipropetrovsk Oblast AD (2 new systems planned). Domestic development (Patriot alternative, FrankenSAM production). Active against ongoing Shahed attacks (confirmed AD engagement over Kyiv). Urgent need reiterated by President Zelenskyy for key cities. Confirmed Shahed impacts/fires in Kyiv despite AD engagement highlight need for saturation defense.
Electronic Warfare: New Ramstein EW Coalition. 540 billion UAH allocated for Dnipropetrovsk EW.
Drones: Active use for strikes/recon. Successful intercepts of RU Lancet/Supercam reported (Apr 11). International support package (£450M UK/€580M UK+NO). Potential deep strike capability indicated. RU sources cite UA personnel reporting need for more drones on Toretsk front. Development of new "Foot Crusher" fragmentation munition for heavy drones (Apr 10).
Missiles: Domestic "Bars" missile revealed. Claimed use of "long Neptune" and domestic ballistics.
Ground Forces: Receiving armor/ammo/radars via Ramstein. RU claims loss of 2 UA M109A6 Paladins (Pokrovsk), multiple AFVs near Chasiv Yar (Apr 10), T-64BV (Zaporizhzhia, Apr 10). Cross-border SSO operations confirmed successful (Kursk Oblast, Apr 11). Public appeals for drones/laptops/tires by frontline units (53rd Mech, 42nd Mech) suggest potential localized equipment needs.
Russian:
Drones: Heavy use of Shaheds (currently active against Kyiv - see Section II), FPVs (incl. fiber-optic guided variants on Kupyansk/Kramatorsk/Zaporizhzhia axes), Lancets, Supercams, incendiary types. Claimed strikes on UA CPs/transport/artillery/AFVs. Increased FPV activity/superiority claimed on Toretsk/Pokrovsk axis. Use of drones for mining UA supply routes claimed (Kupyansk). Claimed FPV interception of UA recon drones (Kherson).
Air Power: Heavy reliance on KABs (56 used Apr 11 per UGS; active launches towards Sumy Oblast 01:19 UTC). Continued precision air/sea strikes claimed. Potential deployment of new Su-57 fighters noted.
Air Defense: RU MoD highlights deployment and tactics of Strela-10M SAM systems (Vostok Group) providing mobile, 24/7 cover for ground forces, possibly indicating adaptation to UA drone/strike threats and potential reliance on visual acquisition.
Artillery: Video released showcasing artillery officer ("Fíl") and brother operating 2S3 SPG, emphasizing rapid operations and targeting of UA positions/equipment. TOS-1A use confirmed (Kupyansk). Uragan MLRS use claimed (Pokrovsk).
Tactics: Push on multiple axes towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border. Reported use of armor breakthroughs exploiting weather (Toretsk axis). Broad front offensive claimed (Toretsk/Myrnohrad). Claims of steady advances on the "Andreevskoe Direction" (Novopavlivsk).
Naval: President Putin emphasizes development of domestic naval drones (surface/underwater), integrated C2, and counter-drone capabilities, citing Black Sea lessons.
Logistics/Protection: Continued reliance on volunteer groups for supplementary vehicle armor (e.g., for 2S5 SPGs) suggests potential gaps in standard protection against FPVs. Visual evidence (Colonelcassad photos, Apr 12) confirms presence of cage armor modifications on vehicles in operational zones.
V. Civilian Impact (Focus on Apr 11-12)
Ongoing Air Attacks (Night Apr 11-12): Active Shahed drone attacks ongoing/resuming.
Kyiv City: Air alert active. Explosions heard due to drone attack and air defense activity. Confirmed impacts (Klitschko, 01:44 UTC): Fire in non-residential premises (Sviatoshynskyi District), private house fire (Darnytskyi District). Emergency services responding. Visuals show fire/smoke.
Kharkiv City:3 Shahed drone strikes confirmed, two hitting the Nemyshlyanskyi district (01:09 UTC). No casualties initially reported (01:22 UTC), damage assessment ongoing.
Other Oblasts: Active threats/alerts in Zhytomyr, Kyiv Oblast. Potential impacts in communities along drone paths require monitoring.
Sumy Oblast: Active KAB threat ongoing.
Odesa Attack (Apr 11 Evening/Night): Attack involved at least 5 UAVs. Explosions reported, air defense was active. Assessed clear as of 23:03 UTC.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Apr 11 Evening): Damage to private houses in Pavlohrad district and Dnipro city from UAV attacks/debris. No casualties reported as of 20:25 UTC.
Alleged Ukrainian Impact in Russia (Kursk Oblast): RU sources allege UA mining of civilian well in Plehovo caused injuries to 3 civilians; allege UA forces killed a 67-year-old civilian man in Plehovo (Apr 12 claim). Previously alleged UA forces killed 9 civilians in Makhnovka (Apr 10 claim). Requires independent verification.
