Military Situation Update: Ukraine (Apr 12, 2025, 00:23 UTC)
(Derived from intelligence reports, official statements, and message feeds dated up to Apr 12, 2025, 00:22 UTC)
I. Strategic & Operational Context
Overall Intensity: High intensity persists across the front. 126 combat clashes reported since the start of Apr 11 (UGS 19:00 UTC). Russian forces continue extensive air, drone, and artillery attacks.
Russian Air/Artillery Pressure: Russia conducted 56 air strikes (launching 56 KABs), utilized over 900 kamikaze drones, and executed approx. 5,000 shelling attacks against Ukrainian positions and populated areas since the start of Apr 11 (UGS). Russian MoD claims 8 group strikes (air/sea precision weapons, UAVs) from Apr 5-11 targeting Ukrainian military infrastructure.
Diplomatic/Political:
US Envoy/Peace Proposals: Reports indicate US Special Envoy Witcoff discussed a potential ceasefire involving Ukraine ceding control of four oblasts to Russia. US Special Representative Keith Kellogg proposed a framework for a post-ceasefire allied "resiliency force" (without US troops) with defined areas of responsibility to support Ukrainian sovereignty, clarifying earlier media reports (The Times) that misinterpreted his statements as suggesting a division of Ukraine similar to post-WWII Berlin. Kellogg explicitly denied suggesting a partition of Ukraine (Apr 12, 00:01 UTC).
US Ambassador Departure: US Ambassador Brink reportedly left post amid "political disagreements with the Trump administration."
UK/France Post-War Planning: UK/France reportedly preparing a detailed plan for potential post-war troop deployments ("calming forces") in Ukraine for presentation to US President Trump. A coalition of 30 countries discussing post-war security, with 15 offering contributions (limited ground troop commitment).
US-Ukraine Resource Talks: Recent negotiations regarding potential US access to Ukrainian mineral resources reported as "antagonistic" with low chance of agreement (Reuters source, amplified by RU sources). The latest US proposal is allegedly significantly stricter, described as "maximalist," demanding priority access to mineral deposits, pooling all state/private company revenue into a joint investment fund, and potentially seeking US DFC control over the gas transit pipeline through Ukraine. The proposal reportedly lacks explicit security guarantees for Ukraine. President Zelenskyy maintains any agreement must be mutually beneficial and aid economic modernization. Kellogg previously noted (via TASS citing The Times) the lack of precise data on Ukrainian mineral resources.
French Military Activity: French military cartographers reported mapping the "Focsani Gate" corridor on the Romania-Ukraine/Moldova border, potentially for contingency planning against Russian advances towards Moldova/Odesa.
Russian Personnel Appointments (Occupied Territories): Oleg Lymar, a decorated veteran of the "Special Military Operation" and participant in the "Time of Heroes" program, appointed advisor to the governor of Sevastopol for projects supporting conflict participants.
International Support (Ramstein Follow-up):
Total aid announced since previous meeting exceeds €21 Billion.
Key Pledges: Germany (€11B total by 2029: AD, armor, arty, 1100 ground radars); UK (£450M: drones, radar); Norway (€5B increase); Belgium (€1B); Denmark (€900M); Netherlands (€150M); Lithuania (€20M); Estonia (arty rounds).
New EW Coalition established, led by Germany.
Ukrainian Command/Capabilities:
Focus on enhancing AD/EW/mobile fire groups in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast due to increased Russian air attacks. Two additional AD systems planned for the region. 540 billion UAH allocated for EW in the oblast.
Work ongoing on domestic Patriot alternative ("Bars" missile mentioned). Negotiating localization of Western AD production. Received technical documentation for FrankenSAM production. Claimed monthly use of "long Neptune" and domestic ballistic missiles.
II. Air Threats & Activity (Updates as of 00:23 UTC)
Ongoing Shahed Drone Threat (UA AF / Nikolaevsky Vanek - Updates up to 00:21 UTC): Multiple groups active across central and northern Ukraine. Air alerts widespread.
Vinnytsia Oblast: UAVs present in eastern part, moving North (UA AF 00:21).
Cherkasy Oblast: UAVs present in northern part, moving North-West (UA AF 00:21). Threat previously declared for Zvenyhorodskyi, Umanśkyi, and Черкаський districts.
Chernihivska Oblast: UAVs present in western part, moving South-West (UA AF 00:21). 5 UAVs reported approaching Chernihiv city (NV 00:03). Threat previously declared.
Sumy Oblast: Previous report (NV 23:48) indicated 5 UAVs passed Konotop moving west. Current status requires update. Threat previously declared.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Previous report (UA AF 23:32) indicated UAVs moving north in the eastern part. Current status requires update.
Donetsk Oblast / Kramatorsk Axis: Previous report (NV 23:03) indicated 2 UAVs approaching Pokrovsk and 3 UAVs active northwest of Dobropillia. Threat likely persists.
Southern Regions (Odesa/Mykolaiv): Assessed as clear of immediate Shahed threats as of 23:03 UTC (NV). Earlier attack involved at least 5 UAVs.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Air alert ended as of 23:50 UTC (Zaporizhzhia ODA).
Guided Air Bomb (KAB) Threat: RU tactical aviation activity persists. Active KAB launches reported towards Sumy Oblast (UA AF 00:21 UTC). UGS reported 56 KABs used across fronts on Apr 11.
Russian Air Defence Activity:
RU MoD released video (Apr 11, 23:59 UTC) showcasing Strela-10M SAM systems from the "Vostok" Group operating 24/7 to protect motor rifle units from UA air attacks. Emphasis on mobile ("shoot-and-scoot") tactics and visual target acquisition. Deployed to protect forward lines, rear areas, and infrastructure.
RU MoD claimed 13 Ukrainian UAVs downed over Kursk/Rostov Oblasts (Apr 11 evening). Claims 1,200 UA drones downed in past week (likely inflated).
Ukrainian Counter-Drone Successes (Apr 11): UA pilots reportedly destroyed RU Lancet and Supercam UAVs over Sumy Oblast.
Potential Ukrainian Deep Strikes: Widespread drone alerts activated across multiple Russian regions reported earlier (Apr 11, 20:50 UTC).
III. Major Frontline Updates (Derived from UGS 19:00 UTC & Sources up to 00:22 UTC)
Kursk/Sumy/Belgorod Border Zone:
UGS (19:00 UTC):17 combat clashes since day start, 2 ongoing. Heavy RU shelling/KABs. New KAB launches towards Sumy Oblast reported 00:21 UTC.
Russian Claims: Ongoing operations in Kursk Oblast. Continued claims of advances near Hornal (Kursk).
Ukrainian Actions: Reported drone strikes (117th TDF, BBS VARTOVI). Successful SSO cross-border operations reported earlier (Apr 11, 16:24 UTC) claiming capture of 14 RU personnel (3 officers) and ~30 RU KIA in Kursk Oblast.
Russian Claims (Apr 11, 21:02 UTC):Broad front offensive on Myrnograd-Toretsk direction claimed, with 6km breakthrough towards N. Nelepivka/Dachne. Claim RU armor reached Nelepivka vicinity near Ivanopillia. Advances claimed W of Panteleimonivka towards Stara Mykolaivka. Fighting on outskirts of Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk). Citing UA sources, RU claims UA needs reinforcements/drones here.
Ukrainian Actions (Apr 11): "Khizhak" Brigade video shows clearing operations on Toretsk outskirts. Presidential Brigade FPV strikes effective.
UGS (19:00 UTC):Highest Intensity. 32 RU attacks repelled, 1 ongoing near multiple settlements including Kalynove, Tarasivka, Nadiivka. Significant RU losses claimed by UGS for Apr 11 (347 personnel, various equipment).
DeepState Update (Apr 11, 21:27 UTC): Confirmed Russian advance in Kalynove and near Novooleksandrivka.
Russian Claims (Apr 11, 21:02 UTC): Claim capture and clearance of Kalynove (partially corroborated by DeepState, full control unconfirmed). Activation near Arkhangelske. Heavy FPV use near Valentynivka. Advance towards H-20 highway claimed. Heavy fighting in Lysovka. Claim destruction of two US M109A6 Paladin SPGs.
Contested Dynamics: RU source previously claimed UA forces expanded control near Shevchenko (Apr 11, 16:24 UTC report) - requires verification.
Russian Claims (Apr 11): Multiple claims of advances: Into center of Troitske (~6km front); NW of Uspenivka; towards Bohatyr from Rozdolne/Rozlyv; expansion near Shevchenko, approaching the settlement W of Burlatske. RU 37th GMRB drone strikes on UA equipment confirmed.
RU Counter-Drone Claims: Claim destruction of 11 UA "Baba Yaga" drones on this direction in past week.
Huliaipole Axis:
UGS (19:00 UTC):3 RU attacks near Pryvilne, Novosilka, Burlatske.
Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia):
UGS (19:00 UTC):4 RU attacks repelled near Mali Shcherbaky.
Ukrainian Reports: Russia transferring reserves. Tense situation near Stepove, Mali Shcherbaky, Lobkove.
Russian Claim (Apr 11, 21:59 UTC): RU drone units ("Viking" / "Bobr") claim destruction of Ukrainian AFV via drone strike.
Prydniprovsky Axis (Left Bank Kherson):
UGS (19:00 UTC):7 RU attacks attempted, all unsuccessful.
Russian Claims: Artillery strike on UA UAV position near Kakhovka claimed.
IV. Capabilities & Support
Ukrainian:
Air Defense: Receiving systems/munitions via Ramstein. Focus on bolstering Dnipropetrovsk Oblast AD (2 new systems planned). Domestic development (Patriot alternative, FrankenSAM production). Active against ongoing Shahed attacks. Urgent need reiterated by President Zelenskyy for key cities (Dnipro, Kryvyi Rih, Nikopol, Kharkiv, Sumy, Chernihiv, Mykolaiv, Odesa).
Electronic Warfare: New Ramstein EW Coalition. 540 billion UAH allocated for Dnipropetrovsk EW.
Drones: Active use for strikes/recon. Successful intercepts of RU Lancet/Supercam reported. International support package (£450M UK/€580M UK+NO). Potential deep strike capability indicated. RU sources cite UA personnel reporting need for more drones on Toretsk front.
Missiles: Domestic "Bars" missile revealed. Claimed use of "long Neptune" and domestic ballistics.
Ground Forces: Receiving armor/ammo/radars via Ramstein. RU claims loss of 2 UA M109A6 Paladins (Pokrovsk). RU claims destruction of UA mortar on Kupyansk axis (Apr 11). Cross-border SSO operations confirmed successful (Kursk Oblast).
Russian:
Drones: Heavy use of Shaheds (currently active against multiple oblasts - see Section II), FPVs (incl. fiber-optic guided variants on Kupyansk axis), Lancets, Supercams, incendiary types. Claimed strikes on UA CPs/transport/artillery. Increased FPV activity/superiority claimed on Toretsk/Pokrovsk axis. Claimed drone strike on UA AFV (Zaporizhzhia, Apr 11). Use of drones for mining UA supply routes claimed (Kupyansk).
Air Power: Heavy reliance on KABs (56 used Apr 11 per UGS; active launches towards Sumy Oblast 00:21 UTC). Continued precision air/sea strikes claimed. Potential deployment of new Su-57 fighters noted.
Air Defense: RU MoD highlights deployment and tactics of Strela-10M SAM systems (Vostok Group) providing mobile, 24/7 cover for ground forces, possibly indicating adaptation to UA drone/strike threats and potential reliance on visual acquisition.
Artillery: Video released showcasing artillery officer ("Fíl") and brother operating 2S3 SPG, emphasizing rapid operations and targeting of UA positions/equipment. TOS-1A use confirmed (Kupyansk).
Tactics: Push on multiple axes towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border. Reported use of armor breakthroughs exploiting weather (Toretsk axis). Broad front offensive claimed (Toretsk/Myrnohrad).
Naval: President Putin emphasizes development of domestic naval drones (surface/underwater), integrated C2, and counter-drone capabilities, citing Black Sea lessons.
Logistics/Protection: Continued reliance on volunteer groups for supplementary vehicle armor (e.g., for 2S5 SPGs) suggests potential gaps in standard protection against FPVs.
V. Civilian Impact (Focus on Apr 11-12)
Ongoing Air Attacks (Night Apr 11-12): Active Shahed drone attacks targeting multiple oblasts including Vinnytsia, Cherkasy, Chernihiv (specifically approaching city). Potential impacts in communities along drone paths. Active KAB threat ongoing towards Sumy Oblast. Air alerts active across a wide area.
Odesa Attack (Apr 11 Evening/Night): Attack involved at least 5 UAVs. Explosions reported, air defense was active. Assessed clear as of 23:03 UTC.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Apr 11 Evening): Damage to private houses in Pavlohrad district and Dnipro city from UAV attacks/debris. No casualties reported as of 20:25 UTC.
