Military Situation Update: Ukraine (Apr 11, 2025, 21:23 UTC)
(Derived from intelligence reports, official statements, and message feeds dated up to Apr 11, 2025, 21:23 UTC)
I. Strategic & Operational Context
Overall Intensity (UGS Report, Apr 11, 19:00 UTC & RU MoD, Apr 11): High intensity persists. 126 combat clashes occurred since the start of the day (UGS). Russian forces conducted 56 air strikes (launching 56 KABs), utilized over 900 kamikaze drones, and executed approximately 5,000 shelling attacks against Ukrainian positions and populated areas (UGS). The Russian MoD claims 8 group strikes (air/sea precision weapons, UAVs) from Apr 5-11 targeting Ukrainian military airfields, defense industry, UAV assembly/storage, ammo depots, and troop concentrations. Ukrainian forces maintain defensive operations, repelling numerous attacks and inflicting losses.
Diplomatic & Political Developments:
Putin-Witcoff Meeting (St. Petersburg): Meeting concluded after approx. 4.5 hours. Kremlin spokesperson stated the topic involved "aspects of Ukrainian settlement." RDIF head Dmitriev, who participated, described talks as "productive." US Envoy Witcoff departed St. Petersburg (Flightradar / TASS).
Alleged Witcoff Proposal (Reuters / ASTRA / Multiple Sources): Reports persist suggesting US Special Envoy Witcoff conveyed to D. Trump that a rapid ceasefire path involves Ukraine ceding control of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts to Russia. This view was reportedly shared after Witcoff met RU representative Dmitriev last week.
Kellogg Proposal (The Times / Tsaplienko / RBC-Ukraine / Operatyvnyi ZSU / Kotsnews): US Special Representative for Ukraine, Gen. Keith Kellogg, reportedly suggested a potential peace framework involving dividing Ukraine "almost like Berlin after World War II," potentially with UK and France leading a western zone of control (west of Dnipro river considered "not provocative" by Kellogg). Kellogg reportedly opposed the Witcoff proposal (ceding territory). Proposes an 18-mile buffer zone between UA and RU forces. States US would not commit ground troops but could assist coordination. Suggests new elections post-ceasefire. Emphasizes Europe needing to act independently for military support. Russian sources note the map implies Russia keeps only currently occupied areas, unlike the full division of Berlin.
US Ambassador Departure (FT / Rybar / Voin DV): US Ambassador to Ukraine, Bridget Brink (appointed May 2022), has reportedly left her post amid "political disagreements with the Trump administration." This is viewed as part of the Trump administration's replacement of Biden appointees to align personnel with evolving US strategy toward Ukraine.
UK/France Post-War Plan (Bloomberg / Tsaplienko / RBC-Ukraine / Operatyvnyi ZSU): UK and France reportedly intend to present Trump with a detailed plan for potential post-war troop deployments in Ukraine ("calming forces" / post-war mission) within weeks, as a basis for security guarantees. A Coalition of 30 countries is reportedly discussing protection of Ukrainian skies/borders and army restoration. Fifteen nations have reportedly offered contributions (equipment, aircraft, ships), though the number willing to send ground troops is limited.
Ramstein Follow-up (Tsaplienko): Defence Minister Umerov proposed hosting the next Ramstein format meeting in Ukraine to facilitate direct engagement between partners and Ukrainian Security and Defense Forces representatives.
International Support & Ramstein Meeting (Summary):
Total aid announced since the previous meeting exceeds €21 Billion.
Key Pledges Confirmed: Germany (€11B total by 2029: IRIS-T, Patriots, Leopards, Marders, Arty Rounds, 1100 ground radars); UK (£450M: drones, radar, repair); Norway (€5B increase for 2025: ammo, AD, co-funds UK drone pkg); Belgium (€1B); Denmark (€900M); Netherlands (€150M); Lithuania (€20M); Estonia (arty rounds, rations).
New EW Coalition established, led by Germany.
Ukrainian High Command/Government Statements:
President Zelenskyy visited Kryvyi Rih (Apr 11), focusing on enhancing Dnipropetrovsk Oblast's AD, EW, and mobile fire groups due to increased Russian air attacks (>2,000 since Jan 2025). Decisions made to strengthen regional AD. Two additional AD systems planned for the region soon (details non-public); 540 billion UAH allocated for EW in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Oleksandr Vilkul / General Staff UA / RBC-Ukraine).
Minister Smetanin confirmed Ukraine is working on a domestic Patriot alternative, negotiating partial localization of Western AD production, and mentioned new domestic missiles including "Bars". Claimed monthly active use of "long Neptune" and domestic ballistic missiles (RBC-Ukraine / Operatyvnyi ZSU).
Minister Kamyshin stated Ukraine received technical documentation for FrankenSAM production, enabling domestic manufacturing (Operatyvnyi ZSU).
Russian Command Activities (RU MoD):
President Putin held meeting on Navy development strategy until 2050.
Defence Minister Belousov held meeting at Zapad Group command post, briefed on situation and support.
II. Air Threats & Activity (Apr 11 Evening - Ongoing)
Ongoing Shahed Threats (as of 21:18 UTC - UA AF / Nikolaevsky Vanek):
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: UAVs active in the east, heading west (UA AF, 21:18 UTC). Previously: 7 UAVs detected in E. Dnipropetrovsk heading North (Vanek, 20:54 UTC). 4 new UAVs moving from Zaporizhzhia towards Dnipropetrovsk (Vanek, 20:31 UTC). Groups previously active near Pavlohrad (damage reported) and towards Sumy.
Mykolaiv Oblast: UAVs active in the north, heading west (UA AF, 21:18 UTC). Previously: 4 new UAVs detected moving from Kherson Oblast towards Snihurivka (Vanek, 20:54 UTC). 4 UAVs previously in Bashtanskyi district heading towards Nova Odesa (Vanek, 20:31 UTC). 1 UAV briefly turned towards Mykolaiv city area (Matviivka/Soliani) but then proceeded towards Odesa Oblast (Vanek, 20:56 / 20:59 UTC). 2 UAVs transiting W from Zaporizhzhia Oblast towards Mykolaiv Oblast (via W. of Zelenodolsk) (Vanek, 20:31 UTC).
Kirovohrad Oblast: UAVs active in the north, heading west (UA AF, 21:18 UTC). Previously: 1 UAV N of Kropyvnytskyi (W course); 2 UAVs S. Kirovohrad Oblast (W course) (Vanek, 20:54 UTC). 1 UAV transiting from Dnipropetrovsk towards Oleksandriia (Vanek, 20:31 UTC).
Odesa Oblast: Threat active (UA AF, 20:51 UTC). 3 UAVs reported transiting from Mykolaiv Oblast into Odesa Oblast (Vanek, 20:54 UTC).
Kherson Oblast: UAVs active in the north, heading south-west (UA AF, 21:18 UTC). Threat previously active (UA AF, 20:51 UTC). 4 new UAVs detected moving from Kherson Oblast towards Mykolaiv Oblast (Vanek, 20:54 UTC).
Sumy Oblast: Threat previously active. 2 UAVs reported near Sumy city (Vanek, 20:54 UTC). 1 UAV previously reported active near Sumy city (UA AF, 20:39 UTC).
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: New group detected in the south heading North (UA AF, 20:32 UTC).
Guided Air Bomb (KAB) Threat: RU tactical aviation launched KABs towards Sumy Oblast (UA AF 21:18 UTC). Previously launched towards Sumy Oblast (UA AF 19:22 UTC). UGS reported 56 KABs used by Russia across fronts since the start of Apr 11.
Russian Air Defence Claims: RU MoD claims 13 Ukrainian UAVs downed over Kursk and Rostov Oblasts between ~19:36-20:06 UTC (TASS). RU MoD claims 1,200 Ukrainian fixed-wing drones downed in the past week (Likely Inflated Propaganda).
Ukrainian Counter-Drone Successes:
Pilots from BBS VARTOVI reportedly destroyed a Russian Lancet and a Supercam UAV over Sumy Oblast (Sternenko, Apr 11).
RU sources claim UA forces lost 11 "Baba Yaga" type heavy drones on the South Donetsk direction over the past week to RU counter-drone efforts (656 MSR, 135 OMSB, 140 GZRBr, 36 GMSB, 5 GTB, 14 SpN Bde) (Colonelcassad/Voin DV, Apr 11).
Potential Ukrainian Deep Strikes (RU Reports/UA Sources): Ukrainian sources report drone alerts activated across multiple Russian regions including Kaluga, Lipetsk, Tula, Rostov, Saratov, Tambov, Ryazan, Astrakhan, and Volgograd Oblasts (Sternenko, 20:50 UTC).
Russian Shahed Tactic Warning (Apr 10 - UA Monitors): Reports indicate recent Russian Shahed deployments included time-delayed submunitions (similar to fragmentation grenades), posing a significant UXO hazard (Tsaplienko).
Russian Accusation (RU MoD): Russia accuses Ukraine of violating a (claimed) Russian-American agreement to cease energy facility strikes (from Mar 18 for 30 days), alleging 5 Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure in the past 24 hours.
III. Major Frontline Updates (UGS Report 19:00 UTC & Other Sources)
Kursk/Sumy/Belgorod Border Zone:
UGS:17 combat clashes since day start, 2 ongoing. Heavy RU shelling (259 incidents, 21 MLRS) and KAB strikes reported.
Russian Claims (Apr 11): RU MoD claims ongoing operations to "neutralize AFU formations" in Kursk Oblast, asserting >235 Ukrainian personnel losses, 2 AFVs, 7 vehicles, 1 engineer vehicle destroyed today. Continued claims of advances near Hornal (Kursk). Claimed capture of Zhuravka (Sumy) on Apr 10 (Contested). Persistent crowdfunding appeals highlight equipment needs (RVvoenkor).
Ukrainian Actions (Apr 11): 117th TDF (Sumy) drone strike video. BBS VARTOVI drone strikes down RU Lancet/Supercam (Sumy). UGS commends UA 27th NGU Regiment for inflicting losses (likely this axis).
Kharkiv Axis:
UGS: 2 RU attacks towards Kamyanka.
Russian Claims (Apr 11): Disruption of UA rotation near Lyptsi via artillery strike alleged.
Ukrainian Claims (Apr 11): 3rd Assault Brigade FPV strikes destroyed RU infantry, Starlink, antennas. Drone strike on RU group at bus stop reported.
Kupyansk Axis:
UGS: 7 RU attacks repelled near Holubivka, Nova Kruhlyakivka, Zahryzove.
Russian Claims (Apr 10): Use of drones for aerial mining of UA supply routes reported. Confirmed RU advances near Kupyansk (ISW, Apr 10).
Russian Claims (Apr 10-11): Methodical advances claimed. 700m advance W of Vasiukivka (Soledar area) claimed (Apr 11). Claimed destruction of alleged UA UAV CP bunker in Serebryansky Forest via FPV drone (Akhmat). Claimed entry into northern Torske (Apr 10).
Siversk Axis:
UGS: 6 RU attacks repelled near Ivano-Darivka, Bilohorivka.
Kramatorsk Axis (incl. Chasiv Yar):
UGS: 3 RU attacks repelled near Kurdiumivka, Chasiv Yar, Orikhovo-Vasylivka.
Russian Claims (Apr 11): FAB-1500 UMPK strike on UA concentration near Chasiv Yar claimed. Claimed destruction of UA UAV control point via FPV drone. RU VDV units (215th Recon Bn, 217th Regt, 98th Div) claim drone strikes destroying multiple UA transport vehicles (Colonelcassad, Apr 11).
UGS:14 RU attacks near Dachne, Druzhba, Toretsk. 1 engagement ongoing.
Russian Claims (RVvoenkor/Colonelcassad - Apr 11, 21:02 UTC): Claim broad front offensive on Myrnograd-Toretsk direction with 6km breakthrough. Attacks with armor towards N. Nelepivka and Dachne (depth ~5.7km). Claim RU armor (exploiting weather) broke through from Toretsk towards Kostiantynivka, reaching Nelepivka vicinity near Ivanopillia. Anticipate more attacks due to increased RU drone activity. Claim advances W of Panteleimonivka, moving towards Stara Mykolaivka (UA currently holding). RU 132nd GMRB claims drone strike destroyed UA UAV control point near Dyleyivka, killing 4 personnel (Voin DV). Claim 0.5 km advance NE of Druzhba. Fighting ongoing on outskirts of Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk). RU sources cite UA soldiers reporting need for reinforcements and drones to counter RU drone superiority in this area.
Russian Claims (RVvoenkor/Colonelcassad - Apr 11, 21:02 UTC): Claim capture and clearance of Kalynove. Claim activation near Arkhangelske. Claim heavy RU FPV drone use near Valentynivka. Claim advance towards H-20 highway near Panteleimonivka/Sukha Balka. Heavy fighting near Tarasivka, Zelenyi Pol. RU claim destruction of two US M109A6 Paladin SPGs (video provided). Heavy fighting with high losses reported in Lysovka. Assert RU goal is push towards Stara Mykolaivka and Ignatka to reach Kostiantynivka.
Novopavlivsk Axis / South Donetsk / Vremivka / Andriivka:
UGS:5 RU attacks near Rozlyv, Rozdolne. 2 engagements ongoing. (Note: UGS reporting may not fully capture granularity claimed by RU sources).
Russian Claims (Rybar/Kotenok/Dnevnik/Colonelcassad - Apr 11, incl. 20:46 UTC update):
Troitske Area: Claim entry into center of Troitske, advancing on ~6km front. Fighting SE of Bohdanivka. Assess RU forces ~4km from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border. Claim 200m advance towards Troitske. Approaching Kotliarivka.
Andriivka Direction: Claim successful RU actions N & S of Andriivka. Claim advances NW of Uspenivka towards Novoserhiivka; attacks towards Novooleksandrivka. Claim capture of positions N & W of Nadezhdynka. Attacks on Troitske, Bohdanivka. Claim RU forces pushing from Rozdolne towards Bohatyr.
Rozdolne/Bohatyr Area: Claim significant advances near Rozdolne and Andriivka (early April). Claim capture of road W of Rozdolne towards Bohatyr. Claim 300m advance from Rozlyv towards Bohatyr.
Vremivka Area (Shevchenko): Claim significant zone expansion and advances in forest belts W of Burlatske, approaching Shevchenko (confirmed by sources on ground/imagery). Claim pushing UA forces from positions on Vesele-Pryvilne line. Acknowledge fighting near Shevchenko outskirts. Assess battle for Shevchenko imminent.
Claimed incendiary drone strikes (16th CBRN Bde "Rising Sun") on UA personnel/structures in Shakhtarsk direction.
RU Counter-Drone Claims: RU claim destruction of 11 UA "Baba Yaga" drones on this direction in past week (Colonelcassad/Voin DV).
Huliaipole Axis:
UGS:3 RU attacks near Pryvilne, Novosilka, Burlatske.
Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia):
UGS:4 RU attacks repelled near Mali Shcherbaky.
Ukrainian Reports (Apr 11): UA Southern Defense Forces report Russia transferring reserves to this direction. Situation tense near Stepove, Mali Shcherbaky, Lobkove.
Russian Claims (Apr 11): Drone unit "BOBR" claims disruption of UA rotation via drone strikes.
Prydniprovsky Axis (Left Bank Kherson):
UGS:7 RU attacks attempted, all unsuccessful.
Russian Claims (Apr 11): MoD claims destruction of a Ukrainian UAV position near Kakhovka via Giatsint-B artillery.
Ukrainian Commendation (UGS): 40th Separate Coast Defense Brigade cited for inflicting significant losses (likely this axis).
IV. Capabilities & Support
Ukrainian:
Air Defense: Receiving significant systems/munitions via Ramstein pledges (IRIS-T, Patriot missiles). Focus on bolstering regional AD (esp. Dnipropetrovsk). Two additional systems planned for Dnipropetrovsk. Domestic development of Patriot alternative and FrankenSAM production capability confirmed. Negotiation for localization of Western AD production ongoing. Active engagement of Shaheds (damage reported in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast indicates penetrations/debris).
Electronic Warfare (EW): New Ramstein EW Coalition (led by Germany). Significant funding (540 billion UAH) allocated for EW enhancement in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
Drones (UAVs): Active use for strikes (3rd Assault, 117th TDF, Presidential Bde) and recon. Successful strikes reported vs RU Lancet/Supercam (Sumy). International support ($580M UK/Norway package). Recruitment active for specialized units ("Darknode" SBS for counter-drone). Crowdfunding continues. RU claims downing 11 UA "Baba Yaga" drones (S. Donetsk). Potential for deep strikes into Russia indicated by widespread drone alerts reported across multiple RU regions. UA sources cited by RU media report need for more drones on Toretsk front.
Missiles: Domestic "Bars" missile revealed. Claimed monthly use of "long Neptune" and domestic ballistic missiles.
Ground Forces: Ramstein pledges include tanks, IFVs, ammo, 1100 ground surveillance radars. Crowdfunding supports vehicle acquisition. RU claims loss of 2 UA M109A6 Paladins (Pokrovsk). Reinforcements reportedly needed on Toretsk front.
Russian:
Drones (UAVs): Continued heavy use of Shaheds (resulting in damage in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast), FPVs (incl. fiber-optic guided - claimed use near Chasiv Yar), Lancets, Supercams, and incendiary types for strikes, reconnaissance, and disrupting UA operations. Claimed drone strikes on UA UAV CPs (Serebryansky Forest, Dyleyivka), transport vehicles (Chasiv Yar). Increased FPV drone activity and alleged superiority reported on Toretsk/Pokrovsk axis (RVvoenkor citing UA sources).
Air Power: Heavy reliance on KABs (56 used Apr 11 per UGS; new launches towards Sumy reported 21:18 UTC). RU MoD claims 8 group strikes (Apr 5-11) using precision air/sea weapons and UAVs against various military targets. Sighting of two new Su-57 5th-gen fighters in Novosibirsk, potentially en route to operational deployment in European Russia (Colonelcassad).
Artillery: Showcased use of Giatsint-B, D-30, Malka systems (RU MoD).
Logistics/Support: Persistent reliance on crowdfunding acknowledged by RU sources ("Dva Mayora"), citing volunteer-supplied Mavics, FPVs, vehicles, helmets, medicine as crucial across the front. Testimonies highlight dependence on popular support.
Tactics/TTPs: Emphasis on communication protocols for tactical medicine. Claimed use of booby-trapped items (lost radios) near Lyman. Claimed use of drones for aerial mining (Kupyansk, Apr 10). Push on multiple axes (Novopavlivsk, Andriivka, Vremivka) towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border. Reported use of armor breakthroughs exploiting weather conditions (Toretsk axis). Broad front offensive claimed on Toretsk/Myrnohrad axis.
V. Civilian Impact
Air Attacks (Ongoing): Ongoing Shahed drone attacks targeting multiple oblasts including Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, Kirovohrad, Sumy, Odesa, Kherson (Evening/Night Apr 11).
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Apr 11 Evening - Dnipro OVA):
Pavlohrad District: Private house caught fire due to UAV attack.
Dnipro City: Private house damaged (roof, facade, windows).
