Military Situation Update: Ukraine (Apr 11, 2025, 20:23 UTC)
(Derived from intelligence reports, official statements, and message feeds dated up to Apr 11, 2025, 20:23 UTC)
I. Strategic & Operational Context
Overall Intensity (UGS Report, Apr 11, 19:00 UTC): High intensity persists. 126 combat clashes occurred since the start of the day. Russian forces conducted 56 air strikes (launching 56 KABs), utilized over 900 kamikaze drones, and executed approximately 5,000 shelling attacks against Ukrainian positions and populated areas. Ukrainian forces maintain defensive operations, repelling numerous attacks and inflicting losses.
Diplomatic & Political Developments:
Putin-Witcoff Meeting (St. Petersburg): Meeting concluded after approx. 4.5 hours. Kremlin spokesperson stated the topic involved "aspects of Ukrainian settlement." RDIF head Dmitriev, who participated, described talks as "productive." US Envoy Witcoff departed St. Petersburg (Flightradar).
Alleged Witcoff Proposal (Reuters / ASTRA / Multiple Sources): Reports persist suggesting US Special Envoy Witcoff conveyed to D. Trump that a rapid ceasefire path involves Ukraine ceding control of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts to Russia. This view was reportedly shared after Witcoff met RU representative Dmitriev last week.
Kellogg Proposal (The Times / Tsaplienko / RBC-Ukraine): US Special Representative for Ukraine, Gen. Keith Kellogg, reportedly suggested a potential peace framework involving dividing Ukraine "almost like Berlin after World War II," potentially with UK and France leading a western zone of control. Kellogg reportedly opposed the Witcoff proposal (ceding territory).
US Ambassador Departure (FT / Rybar / Voin DV): US Ambassador to Ukraine, Bridget Brink (appointed May 2022), has reportedly left her post amid "political disagreements with the Trump administration." This is viewed as part of the Trump administration's replacement of Biden appointees to align personnel with evolving US strategy toward Ukraine.
UK/France Post-War Plan (Bloomberg / Tsaplienko / RBC-Ukraine): UK and France reportedly intend to present Trump with a detailed plan for potential post-war troop deployments in Ukraine ("calming forces") within weeks, as a basis for security guarantees. Fifteen nations reportedly offered contributions (troops, aircraft, ships, equipment).
Ramstein Follow-up (Tsaplienko): Defence Minister Umerov proposed hosting the next Ramstein format meeting in Ukraine to facilitate direct engagement between partners and Ukrainian Security and Defense Forces representatives.
International Support & Ramstein Meeting (Summary):
Total aid announced since the previous meeting exceeds €21 Billion.
Key Pledges Confirmed: Germany (€11B total by 2029: IRIS-T, Patriots, Leopards, Marders, Arty Rounds, 1100 ground radars); UK (£450M: drones, radar, repair); Norway (€5B increase for 2025: ammo, AD, co-funds UK drone pkg); Belgium (€1B); Denmark (€900M); Netherlands (€150M); Lithuania (€20M); Estonia (arty rounds, rations).
New EW Coalition established, led by Germany.
Ukrainian High Command/Government Statements:
President Zelenskyy visited Kryvyi Rih (Apr 11), focusing on enhancing Dnipropetrovsk Oblast's AD, EW, and mobile fire groups due to increased Russian air attacks (>2,000 since Jan 2025). Decisions made to strengthen regional AD. Two additional AD systems planned for the region soon (details non-public); 540 billion UAH allocated for EW in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Oleksandr Vilkul / General Staff UA / RBC-Ukraine).
Minister Smetanin confirmed Ukraine is working on a domestic Patriot alternative, negotiating partial localization of Western AD production, and mentioned new domestic missiles including "Bars". Claimed monthly active use of "long Neptune" and domestic ballistic missiles (RBC-Ukraine / Operatyvnyi ZSU).
Minister Kamyshin stated Ukraine received technical documentation for FrankenSAM production, enabling domestic manufacturing (Operatyvnyi ZSU).
II. Air Threats & Activity (Apr 11 Evening)
Ongoing Shahed Threats (as of 20:23 UTC - UA AF / Nikolaevsky Vanek):
UAVs transiting W. Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (W course).
UAVs transiting N. Mykolaiv Oblast (SW course).
Threat active for Mykolaiv Oblast (from N).
Multiple previous groups targeted Kryvyi Rih, Dnipro, Kirovohrad Oblast, moving W from Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Anti-drone activity (gunfire/explosions) reported near Dnipro.
Groups previously active near Pavlohrad (Dnipropetrovsk) and towards Sumy.
Guided Air Bomb (KAB) Threat: RU tactical aviation launched KABs towards Sumy Oblast (UA AF 19:22 UTC). UGS reported 56 KABs used by Russia across fronts since the start of Apr 11.
Russian Air Defence Claims: RU MoD claims 13 Ukrainian UAVs downed over Kursk and Rostov Oblasts in the last 30 minutes (TASS, 20:06 UTC). RU MoD claims 1,200 Ukrainian fixed-wing drones downed in the past week (Likely Inflated Propaganda).
Ukrainian Counter-Drone Successes:
Pilots from BBS VARTOVI reportedly destroyed a Russian Lancet and a Supercam UAV over Sumy Oblast (Sternenko, Apr 11).
RU sources claim UA forces lost 11 "Baba Yaga" type heavy drones on the South Donetsk direction over the past week to RU counter-drone efforts (656 MSR, 135 OMSB, 140 GZRBr, 36 GMSB, 5 GTB, 14 SpN Bde) (Colonelcassad/Voin DV, Apr 11).
Russian Shahed Tactic Warning (Apr 10 - UA Monitors): Reports indicate recent Russian Shahed deployments included time-delayed submunitions (similar to fragmentation grenades), posing a significant UXO hazard (Tsaplienko).
III. Major Frontline Updates (UGS Report 19:00 UTC & Other Sources)
Kursk/Sumy/Belgorod Border Zone:
UGS:17 combat clashes since day start, 2 ongoing. Heavy RU shelling (259 incidents, 21 MLRS) and KAB strikes reported.
Russian Claims (Apr 10-11): Continued claims of advances near Hornal (Kursk). Claimed capture of Zhuravka (Sumy) on Apr 10 (Contested by UA 36th Marine Brigade evidence engaging RU forces in Basivka, Sumy, Apr 10 - CyberBoroshno). RU 34th Brigade claimed destruction of UA tanks near Demidovka (Belgorod). Rosgvardia/Spetsnaz claim drone interdiction of UA logistics/personnel. Persistent crowdfunding appeals for drones/thermals/detectors for RU forces in Belgorod direction highlight equipment needs (RVvoenkor, Apr 11).
Ukrainian Actions (Apr 10-11): 117th TDF (Sumy) drone strike video. BBS VARTOVI drone strikes down RU Lancet/Supercam (Sumy). Previous reports of successful UA tank breach of "Dragon's Teeth" (Belgorod, 225th Bde, Apr 9). UGS commends UA 27th NGU Regiment for inflicting losses (likely this axis).
Kharkiv Axis:
UGS: 2 RU attacks towards Kamyanka.
Russian Claims (Apr 11): Disruption of UA rotation near Lyptsi via artillery strike alleged.
Ukrainian Claims (Apr 11): 3rd Assault Brigade FPV strikes destroyed RU infantry, Starlink, antennas. Drone strike on RU group at bus stop reported.
Kupyansk Axis:
UGS: 7 RU attacks repelled near Holubivka, Nova Kruhlyakivka, Zahryzove.
Russian Claims (Apr 10): Use of drones for aerial mining of UA supply routes reported. Confirmed RU advances near Kupyansk (ISW, Apr 10).
Russian Claims (Apr 10-11): Methodical advances claimed. 700m advance W of Vasiukivka (Soledar area) claimed (Apr 11). Claimed destruction of alleged UA UAV CP bunker in Serebryansky Forest via FPV drone (Akhmat). Claimed entry into northern Torske (Apr 10).
Ukrainian Reports (Apr 11): Reports of RU forces booby-trapping lost UA radios with plastic explosives near Lyman (Shef Hayabusa).
Siversk Axis:
UGS: 6 RU attacks repelled near Ivano-Darivka, Bilohorivka.
Kramatorsk Axis (incl. Chasiv Yar):
UGS: 3 RU attacks repelled near Kurdiumivka, Chasiv Yar, Orikhovo-Vasylivka.
Russian Claims (Apr 11): FAB-1500 UMPK strike on UA concentration near Chasiv Yar claimed. Claimed destruction of UA UAV control point via FPV drone.
Toretsk Axis:
UGS:14 RU attacks near Dachne, Druzhba, Toretsk. 1 engagement ongoing.
Russian Claims (Apr 11):0.5 km advance NE of Druzhba claimed. Fighting ongoing on outskirts of Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk). RU 132nd GMRB claims drone strike destroyed UA UAV control point near Dyleyivka, killing 4 personnel (Voin DV).
Ukrainian Actions (Apr 11): Presidential Brigade FPV drone operations active against RU personnel. UA sources previously claimed destruction of RU armored group breakthrough W of Toretsk (Apr 10).
Russian Claims (Apr 11): Claim capture and clearance of Kalynove. Claim advance towards H-20 highway near Panteleimonivka/Sukha Balka. Heavy fighting near Tarasivka, Zelenyi Pol. RU claim destruction of two US M109A6 Paladin SPGs (video provided). Heavy fighting with high losses reported in Lysovka.
Novopavlivsk Axis / South Donetsk:
UGS:5 RU attacks near Rozlyv, Rozdolne. 2 engagements ongoing.
Russian Claims (Rybar/Kotenok/Dnevnik - Apr 11):
Claim entry into center of Troitske, advancing on ~6km front. Fighting SE of Bohdanivka. Assess RU forces ~4km from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border.
Claim 200m advance towards Troitske. Approaching Kotliarivka.
Claim advances NW of Uspenivka towards Novoserhiivka; attacks towards Novooleksandrivka. Claim capture of positions N & W of Nadezhdynka. Attacks on Troitske, Bohdanivka.
Claim significant zone expansion approaching Shevchenko (W of Burlatske).
Claim significant advances near Rozdolne and Andriivka (early April). Claim capture of road W of Rozdolne towards Bohatyr. Claim 300m advance from Rozlyv towards Bohatyr.
Claimed incendiary drone strikes (16th CBRN Bde "Rising Sun") on UA personnel/structures in Shakhtarsk direction.
RU Counter-Drone Claims: RU claim destruction of 11 UA "Baba Yaga" drones on this direction in past week (Colonelcassad/Voin DV).
Huliaipole Axis:
UGS:3 RU attacks near Pryvilne, Novosilka, Burlatske.
Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia):
UGS:4 RU attacks repelled near Mali Shcherbaky.
Ukrainian Reports (Apr 11): UA Southern Defense Forces report Russia transferring reserves to this direction. Situation tense near Stepove, Mali Shcherbaky, Lobkove.
Russian Claims (Apr 11): Drone unit "BOBR" claims disruption of UA rotation via drone strikes.
Prydniprovsky Axis (Left Bank Kherson):
UGS:7 RU attacks attempted, all unsuccessful.
Russian Claims (Apr 11): MoD claims destruction of a Ukrainian UAV position near Kakhovka via Giatsint-B artillery.
Ukrainian Commendation (UGS): 40th Separate Coast Defense Brigade cited for inflicting significant losses (likely this axis).
IV. Capabilities & Support
Ukrainian:
Air Defense: Receiving significant systems/munitions via Ramstein pledges (IRIS-T, Patriot missiles). Focus on bolstering regional AD (esp. Dnipropetrovsk). Two additional systems planned for Dnipropetrovsk. Domestic development of Patriot alternative and FrankenSAM production capability confirmed. Negotiation for localization of Western AD production ongoing. Active engagement of Shaheds.
Electronic Warfare (EW): New Ramstein EW Coalition (led by Germany). Significant funding (540 billion UAH) allocated for EW enhancement in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
Drones (UAVs): Active use for strikes (3rd Assault, 117th TDF, Presidential Bde) and recon. Successful strikes reported vs RU Lancet/Supercam (Sumy). International support ($580M UK/Norway package). Recruitment active for specialized units ("Darknode" SBS for counter-drone). Crowdfunding continues. RU claims downing 11 UA "Baba Yaga" drones (S. Donetsk).
Missiles: Domestic "Bars" missile revealed. Claimed monthly use of "long Neptune" and domestic ballistic missiles.
Ground Forces: Ramstein pledges include tanks, IFVs, ammo, 1100 ground surveillance radars. Crowdfunding supports vehicle acquisition. RU claims loss of 2 UA M109A6 Paladins (Pokrovsk).
Russian:
Drones (UAVs): Continued heavy use of Shaheds (incl. alleged time-delayed submunitions), FPVs (incl. fiber-optic guided), Lancets, Supercams, and incendiary types for strikes, reconnaissance, and disrupting UA operations. Claimed drone strikes on UA UAV CPs (Serebryansky Forest, Dyleyivka).
Logistics/Support: Persistent reliance on crowdfunding for basic equipment like thermal ponchos (Dnevnik Desantnika), drone components (Dva Mayora), thermal imagers/comms gear (RVvoenkor appeal for Belgorod front), and EW backpacks (Apr 10). RU soldier testimony confirms heavy reliance on volunteer-supplied equipment (Mavics, FPVs, vehicles, medicine) across the front (Dva Mayora, Apr 11).
Tactics/TTPs: Emphasis on communication protocols for tactical medicine to mitigate friendly fire incidents involving shocked casualties (Colonelcassad column). Claimed use of booby-trapped items (lost radios) near Lyman (Shef Hayabusa). Claimed use of drones for aerial mining (Kupyansk, Apr 10).
V. Civilian Impact
Air Attacks: Ongoing Shahed drone attacks targeting major cities (Zaporizhzhia, Dnipro, Kryvyi Rih) and oblasts (Mykolaiv, Kirovohrad, Sumy) on the evening of Apr 11.
Kursk Oblast (RU Claim, Apr 11):1 civilian killed in alleged UA drone strike on car in Olgovka. (Previous RU claim: 9 bodies found in Makhnovka blamed on UA forces, Apr 10).
