Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 11, 2025, 12:23 UTC
I. Strategic Overview & Key Assessments
Combat Intensity & Assaults: Remains High across multiple fronts. The Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) reported 148 combat engagements on April 10 and 5124 Russian attacks across all fronts between March 11 and April 11, 2025. The highest intensity axes based on recent reports are Pokrovsk (42 assaults Apr 10; 1739 attacks Mar 11-Apr 11), Toretsk (19-22 assaults Apr 10; 666 attacks Mar 11-Apr 11), Kursk/Sumy/Belgorod Border Zone (22-24 assaults Apr 10; 679 attacks Mar 11-Apr 11), and Lyman (13 assaults Apr 10; 627 attacks Mar 11-Apr 11). Russian forces continue extensive use of Guided Air Bombs (KABs), artillery, FPV/kamikaze drones, and ground assaults.
Anticipated Russian Offensive & Objectives: UGS maintains assessment of a potential significant Russian offensive escalation around May-June 2025. Russia's primary strategic objective remains occupying the rest of Donbas (Pokrovsk axis as main effort). Pro-Russian sources amplify narratives anticipating a Sumy offensive, potentially aiming for encirclement/semi-encirclement to create a buffer zone (speculation citing UA GenStaff source). Kremlin ceasefire narratives are viewed as information operations possibly masking offensive preparations.
Russian Operational Methods (Apr 10, UGS data): Included 2 missile strikes, 106 aviation strikes (165 KABs deployed), approx. 6,000 artillery/MLRS shelling incidents (96 MLRS attacks), and 2,388 kamikaze drone strikes. RU forces observed using older equipment (GAZ-69), drone-dropped incendiary devices for mine clearance (Kherson), and advanced drones ('Stratim' company: Rusak, Golub-T, Sekira 13, RISVAT-S) with on-site developer training (Zaporizhzhia). Homemade "Trubolyot" FPV drones used on Siversk axis. Crowdfunding appeals highlight need for EW backpacks for VDV units. Strela-10M SAM systems (Vostok Group) are actively used to cover motorized rifle units.
Russian Weekly Claims (Apr 5-11, RU MoD): Claimed 8 group strikes targeted UA airfield infrastructure, MIC enterprises, UAV assembly/storage, ammo depots, troop concentrations. Claimed liberation of 4 settlements (Guyevo (Kursk), Basovka & Zhuravka (Sumy), Katerynivka (DPR)). Claimed >10,000 UA personnel losses and 1,200 UAVs downed across all fronts. Loss figures likely inflated.
North Korean Involvement (UGS Claim): Alleges >12,000 NK troops involved in hostilities. Claims ~4,000 NK personnel losses (since Kursk operation began), including >3,000 wounded. Claims 1 NK brigade effectively destroyed, 3 others lost combat effectiveness. Requires independent verification.
US-Russia Dialogue & Diplomacy: Potential Trump envoy Stephen Witcoff met with RDIF Head Kirill Dmitriev in St. Petersburg (Apr 11); Putin also reported to be in St. Petersburg, potential meeting acknowledged by Kremlin. Axios report (citing source) claims Trump set an end-of-April deadline for Putin regarding a ceasefire, threatening new sanctions if no agreement reached, potentially via Witcoff. Dialogue on prisoner exchange continues (RU SVR Head Naryshkin). RU claims new negotiation condition is lifting sanctions on civil aviation. UGS noted RU rejected a US ceasefire proposal on Mar 11.
NATO ISR & Contingency Planning: NATO AWACS (E-3A) and US SIGINT/Tanker assets continue operating over Romania/Black Sea and Poland. Reports (Le Figaro via RU sources) suggest French military (28th Topographic unit) mapping terrain near Romania-Ukraine/Moldova border (Focșani Gate), potentially for contingency planning against potential Russian actions. Reports indicate only 6 nations (UK, FR, Baltics +1 unnamed) ready to send troops to Ukraine; others await US direction. UK MoD clarifies EU institutions/Kallas not involved in troop deployment planning.
Russian Information Operations:
Continued narratives alleging harsh Ukrainian mobilization practices (targeting 30,000 monthly).
Dissemination of alleged POW testimonies depicting poor UA treatment or orders to abandon wounded. Video testimony from returned RU POW ("Lega") alleges torture/abuse by "Right Sector"/"Azov" in Kharkiv/Kyiv SIZOs (Apr 11).
Circulation of video alleging civilian resistance to mobilization in Kryvyi Rih.
Claims of UA atrocities (e.g., tying prisoners to tank exhausts, killing civilians in Makhnovka).
Framing RU commanders with Ukrainian origins as 'traitors'.
Promotion of patriotic education/military glorification in Russia. Highlighting alleged civilian suffering in Belgorod/Kursk. Amplification of RU MoD loss claims. Discrediting UA drone unit commander ("Magyar"). Debunking alleged UA narratives ("Dve Kepki" format).
Promoting narratives of preserving cultural heritage (icons near Donetsk). Framing "Ukrainization" in Central Asia as Western manipulation.
Russian Internal Issues: Arrest reported of the head of the construction department of the RU "Military Construction Company" for alleged bribery and fraud (Apr 11). Case reported involving alleged defective parts supplied to "Kalashnikov" concern (Apr 11).
II. Key Frontline Developments
Kursk/Sumy/Belgorod Border Zone (High Intensity):
Russian Advances & Claims: RU MoD confirmed capture of Zhuravka (Sumy Oblast) on April 10 and claimed liberation of Guyevo (Kursk) and Basovka (Sumy) in weekly report (Apr 11). RU sources claim storming UA positions near Hornal (Kursk Oblast), approaching the settlement. RU claims only Hornal and Oleshnia remain to be captured for full control of Kursk border area. UGS reported repelling 24 Russian assaults on April 10. Head of Sumy OVA reported 30% increase in RU ground assault intensity last week (47 actions), focused on Zhuravka/Basivka. RU MoD (Apr 11) claims hitting elements of UA mechanised, tank, air assault, and territorial defence brigades near Hornal and Oleshnia (Kursk); also claims strikes on UA manpower/hardware near multiple Sumy Oblast settlements. RU MoD claims >235 UA personnel losses, equipment losses in the zone over the past day. RU MoD claims highly inflated cumulative UA losses in Kursk direction (>73,645 troops, 405 tanks, etc.). RU MoD claims Su-34 strike on UA UAV CP/launch site in border area.
Ukrainian Posture & Strikes: Ukrainian forces maintain bridgehead near Oleshnia/Hornal (Kursk). Successful HIMARS strike near Sudzha (Kursk) reported (Apr 10, allegedly killed Akhmat commander/unit). UA drone strike reported on Bykanovo (Kursk) causing infrastructure damage (Apr 11). UA 17th Heavy Mechanized Brigade (elements confirmed operating in N Sumy) received donated SUV to improve logistics. Bryansk Governor reports >3,500 Ukrainian attacks on Bryansk Oblast since Jan 2025 impacting agriculture/infrastructure; 63,000 hectares of fertile land lost to cultivation in Bryansk border areas due to hostilities. Belgorod Governor highlights impact of attacks (injured children, damaged homes, UXO risk delaying clean-up).
Russian Strikes: Persistent heavy Russian air (45 strikes, 62 KABs Apr 10; KAB launches ongoing Apr 11) and artillery (372 attacks Apr 10) activity. KAB strikes on Krasnopillia (Sumy) Apr 11.
Alleged UA War Crimes Trials (RU): RU sources report 5 UA soldiers (47th Mech, 252 TDF, 22nd Mech, 17th Tank, 49th Eng) sentenced in Kursk for alleged terrorism (15-16 yrs) related to actions in Aug-Oct 2024.
Donbas Front:
Pokrovsk Axis (Highest Intensity / Assessed RU Main Effort): UGS reported stopping 53 Russian assaults on April 10. Intense fighting persists. RU sources (@don_partizan, Apr 11) report fierce clashes ongoing in NE, N, and NW parts of Shevchenko and in western Lysivka, with significant losses on both sides; RU sources (Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 11) report relative calm noted on Udachne-Kotlyne and Peschane lines, but UA drone activity constant and UA regrouping/reinforcing positions. RU claims UA continues attacks from NE Shevchenko (preceded by mortars/drones), countered by RU artillery. Street fighting reported in N Shevchenko. Intense fighting with heavy losses reported in Lysivka, RU claims fire superiority. RU advanced near Novobakhmutivka and in Uspenivka (DeepState Apr 10). Alleged RU POW (5th MRB) testimony suggests high RU losses, poor command. RU MoD claims >3,005 UA losses on Tsentr Group front (past week). KAB strikes on Hrodivka, Pokrovsk area (Apr 11).
Toretsk Axis (Very High Intensity): UGS reported repelling 22 Russian attacks on April 10. Ukrainian sources claim repelling another RU assault on evening of Apr 10, destroying 2 RU BMPs with drones. RU forces confirmed advances near Toretsk (ISW). RU sources (Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 11) claim clearing parts of Toretsk city, advances towards Matrona Moskovskaya mine, breakthrough into Nelepivka, and 0.5-0.6km expansion of control NE of Druzhba enabling attacks towards Dyliivka. Geolocated RU armored column attack reported towards Dachne (near Druzhba/Gorlovka). RU claims destruction of five UA M113 APCs near Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk) by specific RU units (346 SpN, 381 SAP, 174 ORB, 238 Arty Bde) on Konstantinovskoye direction (Apr 11). RU source claims advances on Konstantinovskoye direction (S flank), expanding control 2km towards Kalynove from Arkhangelske, pressing from Valentynivka/Zelenyi Pol to envelop UA forces (Apr 11). RU occupied Oleksandropil (DeepState Apr 10).
Chasiv Yar / Kramatorsk Axis: Fighting ongoing. UGS repelled 3 RU attacks near Bila Hora, Kurdumivka (Apr 10). UA 24th Mechanized Brigade reports destroying RU assault groups within Chasiv Yar city limits (Apr 11). RU sources claim destruction of a UA pickup truck via drone strike on this axis (Artemovsk direction, Apr 11).
Lyman Axis (High Intensity): UGS reported repelling 13 Russian attacks on April 10. UA 63rd Mech Bde reports destroying a 5-person RU assault group (Apr 11). RU sources previously claimed advances (>1 km) towards Zelena Dolyna (Apr 9). KAB strike on Kramatorsk district. RU MoD claimed liberation of Katerynivka (DPR) (Apr 11 weekly report) and hitting multiple UA brigades.
Siversk Axis: UGS reported repelling 5 RU attacks near Hryhorivka, Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamyanske (Apr 10). RU forces utilizing homemade "Trubolyot" FPV drones on this axis (Apr 11).
South Donetsk / Novopavlivsk Axis: UGS reported repelling 3 RU attacks near Kostiantynopil/Bahatyr (Apr 10). RU forces advancing towards Bohatyr, towards Komar, and in the vicinity of Rozdolne (Rybar). Previous RU claim of reaching Shevchenko outskirts. RU MoD claims hitting multiple UA brigades and causing >1,060 UA losses in Vostok Group zone (past week). Video shows RU 5th Tank Bde FPV drone work. UA drone operators (RUBpAK "Manticore") active. RU 37th GMRB involved in assaults on Komar/Dneproenergiya.
Zaporizhzhia Front:
Orikhiv Axis: Significant increase in RU shelling/strike activity reported (>3000 incidents past week). Urgent need for EW, drones, vehicles highlighted by Zaporizhzhia OVA. UGS reported no ground clashes April 10, but significant RU air/drone/artillery. RU forces receiving new drones ('Stratim' company) and on-site developer training (Apr 11). RU FPV drone drops damaged civilian cars, houses in Polohy/Zaporizhzhia districts (Apr 11, Zaporizhzhia OVA). 2 RU soldiers KIA, 1 WIA from accidental demining near occupied Orlianske (Apr 11). Temporary lane closure on DniproHES dam scheduled for repairs (Apr 12 - Jun 30).
UGS reported repelling 4 RU attacks near Vovchansk (Apr 10) - confirmed by OTU Kharkiv update (Apr 11). OTU Kharkiv reports situation complex; past day: 1 RU missile strike, 2 air strikes (4 KABs), 106 kamikaze drones, 637 shelling incidents. RU sources claim advances on eastern outskirts of Vovchansk and strikes near Liptsi. Heavy RU KAB/Shahed/MLRS strikes persist. KAB strikes on multiple settlements (Apr 10-11). RU source map claims fighting ongoing for Kamianka (Kupyansk direction). RU source claims >=1km advance N of Stepova Novoselivka (Kupyansk direction, Apr 11). RU MoD claims hitting multiple UA brigades in Kharkiv/Belgorod directions (past week) and causing >1,585 UA losses in Zapad Group zone. Ukrainian spokesperson (OTU Kharkiv) states RU attempts to move heavy equipment across Oskil River are unsuccessful. OTU Kharkiv claims destroying/damaging 104 units RU equipment (past day): 4 AFVs, 7 arty, 20 vehicles, 5 spec equip, 68 UAVs; claims 57 RU personnel losses (20 KIA).
Izium Direction (RU Claim): RU MoD reiterates claim of liberating 18 settlements (>330 sq km) since start of 2025.
Kherson Axis (Left Bank):
UGS reported repelling 2 RU assaults on April 10. Bridgehead near Krynky maintained.
RU engineers demonstrated drone-dropped incendiary devices for mine clearance. UA source claims destruction of a RU vehicle and >12 RU KIA (Apr 11). RU MoD claims hitting UA brigades and causing >555 UA losses in Dnepr Group zone (past week). Weather impact (snow/blizzard) causing transport disruption on Odesa highway (M-14 partially blocked/reopened) and other roads in Mykolaiv/Kherson area (Apr 11).
III. Air, Missile & Drone Activity
Russian Strikes Summary (Apr 10-11): Extensive RU strikes using KABs, missiles (Iskander-M in Dnipro), Shahed/Geran drones, MLRS, artillery across multiple regions. RU sources released animated map claiming strikes on Ozerne, Shostka, Kherson (Apr 10-11).
Overnight (Apr 10-11): Russia launched 1 ballistic missile (Dnipro) and 39 Shahed-type/other strike UAVs (+ 13 imitator drones).
Ukrainian Air Defense: Claimed downing 24 enemy UAVs.
Tactical Aviation: Activity reported on NE and E directions (UA AF, 11:30 UTC), threat of air strikes for frontline oblasts.
Guided Air Bomb (KAB) Threat:ACTIVE. Confirmed KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation towards Sumy Oblast (UA AF, 12:00 UTC). Previous launches targeted Sumy, Donetsk Oblasts.
UAV Threat: Warning issued for Kharkiv Oblast (UA AF, 11:33 UTC).
Continued Heavy KAB Use: Persistent heavy deployment (165 KABs Apr 10) impacting Sumy, Kharkiv, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia.
Ukrainian Strike Capabilities & Air Defence:
Air Defence Needs: President Zelenskyy & General Staff reiterate urgent need for Patriot systems at Ramstein meeting. German MoD states allies searching globally for additional systems as Germany cannot provide more currently.
International Support (AD):Netherlands allocates €150m (jointly with UK) for UA air defense (Apr 11). Germany's 2025 package includes IRIS-T systems/missiles and Patriot missiles. New EW Coalition initiated by Germany (+10 nations).
Strikes & Counter-Drone: Claimed successful HIMARS strike near Sudzha (Kursk) (Apr 10, alleged Akhmat commander kill). Active FPV drone use (e.g., RUBpAK "Manticore" on Novopavlivsk axis). UA drone strike reported on Bykanovo (Kursk) (Apr 11). RU MoD claims 5 specific UA strikes on Russian energy facilities (Apr 10-11). Bryansk Gov claims >3,500 UA attacks on Bryansk region since Jan 2025. UA 28th Mechanized Brigade claimed downing a Lancet drone (Apr 11).
RU Air Defence Claims (Weekly): Claimed downing 1,200 UA UAVs, 27 JDAM bombs, 19 HIMARS rockets (Apr 5-11).
IV. Logistics, Capabilities & International Support
Ramstein Format (27th Meeting, Apr 11): Focus on UA air defense (AD), arms deliveries, defense-industrial cooperation.
UK MoD Healey: Calls 2025 a critical year, urging increased aid. Total aid announced exceeds €21 billion ("record support").
Zelenskyy/General Staff: Emphasize Patriot systems as top priority.
German MoD Pistorius: Peace seems unreachable soon; RU must understand UA can fight on with support. Confirms allies searching globally for AD systems for Ukraine. Initiated new EW Coalition (Germany + 10 countries).
Aid Packages & Deliveries:
Germany: Announced 2025 aid plans: 4 IRIS-T systems, 300 IRIS-T missiles, 30 Patriot missiles, 300 recon UAVs, 120 MANPADS, 100 radars, 15 Leopard 1A5, 25 Marder IFV, 14 artillery pieces, 100k shells. Discussing licensed missile production in UA. Updated list of delivered aid includes MRAPs, Gepard SPAAGs, IRIS-T missiles, shells, VECTOR UAVs, UGVs, Wisent MCVs, mine systems.
UK & Norway: Joint £450 million ($580 million) aid package (Apr 11) for FPV drones, radar systems, anti-tank mines, repair funds.
Netherlands: Allocating €150m (jointly with UK) to strengthen UA air defense (Apr 11).
Estonia: Confirmed delivery of 10,000 155mm artillery shells and 750,000 rations this/next week (Apr 11).
EU: Member states committed €23 billion in military aid for 2025 (matching 2024). €2.1B from frozen RU assets allocated (€1B for UA defense industry, >€1B for arms/ammo/AD).
Canada: Confirmed delivery of 40,000 CRV7 rocket motors.
US Policy Shift: Statement attributed to UA DefMin Umerov suggests US assured continued support but indicated a strategic focus shift towards the Indo-Pacific region. US remains active in Ramstein group and peace initiatives.
Ukrainian Needs & Developments: Urgent need for Patriot systems highlighted. Zaporizhzhia OVA calls for more EW, drones, vehicles. Zaporizhzhia planning 100 MW reserve power generation. Expansion of RECOVERY rehabilitation network (24,000 personnel treated). Ivan Havryliuk leaving post as First Deputy DefMin at own request (Apr 11); considered highly professional by commentators. Head of Lutsk TCC VLK found deceased (preliminary non-violent finding). Temporary lane closure on DniproHES dam in Zaporizhzhia for repairs (Apr 12 - Jun 30). Highlighted need for vehicles/logistics support via crowdfunding (e.g., 17th Mech Bde SUV donation).
Russian Logistics, Capabilities & Morale:
Capabilities: Use of Strela-10M SAMs. MoD inspection noted UAV employment (supply delivery) and counter-UAV systems. Demonstrated drone-dropped incendiary devices for mine clearance. Continued use of older GAZ-69 vehicles. Delivery of new 'Stratim' drones with on-site developer training (Zaporizhzhia). Promotion of 'Nabat V.2.C' drone detectors. Use of homemade "Trubolyot" FPV drones (Siversk). Crowdfunding appeal confirms need for EW backpacks for VDV assault units. Proposed change to RU insurance payout rules for easier claims. Evidence of recruitment from prisons (e.g., convicted murderer killed in action). Arrest of head of construction dept of RU "Military Construction Company" for bribery/fraud reported. Death reported of university lecturer (Yuri Grachev) who volunteered.
Personnel Issues/Morale:Video appeal surfaced (Apr 11) from alleged soldiers of RU 26th "Shtorm" unit complaining of extremely high losses due to poor command decisions ("sent to certain death"), lack of preparation, being ordered into assaults with vastly depleted numbers (8 remaining from company), and the arrest of their commander ("Sheykh") for refusing such an order. This indicates potential severe morale and command problems in specific RU units. Internal discussions continue regarding General Ivan Popov's situation (denied release from detention to return to combat, Apr 11).
Emphasis on Youth Indoctrination: Promotion of patriotic education/military glorification programs targeting schoolchildren. Duma proposal for construction training for SVO participants.
V. Naval Situation
Black Sea: No Russian missile carriers reported deployed (UA Navy, early Apr 11).
Mediterranean Sea: 3 Russian warships remain deployed, including Kalibr carriers (potential salvo 26 missiles) (UA Navy, early Apr 11).
Baltic Sea: Estonian Navy detained the Djibouti-flagged tanker Kiwala (IMO 9332810) in Estonian territorial waters (Apr 11). The tanker was en route from Sikka (India) to Ust-Luga (Russia) without cargo. Reasons cited for detention include suspected links to Russia's "shadow fleet," sailing without a flag, being on Western sanctions lists, and needing technical/documentation checks. Captain reported as Chinese. Follows recent Estonian legislation allowing force against suspicious vessels.
Russian Navy Development: President Putin held a meeting on Russian Navy development (Apr 11). Stated Russia paying serious attention to Navy modernization, emphasized its crucial role in protecting national interests, and claimed strategic nuclear forces are 100% modern.
Bryansk Oblast (RU): 1 Civilian mechanic KIA due to UA attack during spring fieldwork (Bryansk Gov, reported Apr 11).
Infrastructure Damage & Disruption: Widespread damage from RU strikes. RU MoD/Gov claim UA strikes damaged energy infrastructure in Bryansk, Kursk, Zaporizhzhia, LNR (Apr 10-11). Bryansk Governor reports >3,500 UA attacks since Jan 2025 damaged agricultural/energy infrastructure, causing loss of 63,000 ha of fertile land from cultivation. UA drone strike on Bykanovo (Kursk) reportedly damaged civilian infrastructure (Apr 11). Zaporizhzhia DniproHES dam lane closure for repairs (Apr 12 - Jun 30). Belgorod Governor reports damaged homes and UXO risk delaying spring clean-up. Humanitarian aid (generators, heat cannons) delivered to Gorlovka (occupied Donetsk) by RU-backed groups due to reported infrastructure damage from shelling.
Ethical Concerns/Allegations:
War Crimes Indictments (Ukraine): Indictments sent to court for two RU soldiers (234th Regt, 76th Div) for alleged murder/attempted murder of civilians in Bucha (Mar 2022).
Alleged War Crimes Trials (Russia): RU sources report 5 UA soldiers sentenced in Kursk for alleged terrorism (15-16 yrs) based on actions Aug-Oct 2024 (intimidating civilians, firing on RU troops/civilians, mining roads, observing RU troops).
Allegations of POW Mistreatment: RU sources promote narratives alleging UA targeting of ambulances, mistreatment of POWs (video testimony from returned RU POW "Lega" alleging torture/abuse Apr 11), and atrocities. UA continues circulating video alleging RU execution of UA POWs (Piatykhatky, Mar 13).
Other Concerns: RU Investigative Committee alleges UA killing of civilians (Makhnovka, Kursk). SBU detention of alleged agent using concealed camera near railway. Accidental RU demining detonation caused 2 RU KIA, 1 WIA near Orlianske (Zaporizhzhia). RU use of very old GAZ-69 vehicles raises personnel safety concerns. RU sources claim intensified/harsh UA mobilization methods; RU MFA video disseminated. Death of Lutsk TCC VLK head under investigation (non-violent preliminary). Reports of RU recruitment of convicts (including murderer). Case reported of Ukrainian/Russian dual citizen (Vitaly Krivoshlyk) convicted in RU for alleged treason (sharing RU troop movement info in Feb 2022).
POW Exchange Issues: Coordination Staff met with families of 36th Marine Bde POWs and captured National Guardsmen (Chernobyl NPP defenders); discussed exchange prospects, prioritizing sick/wounded, and communication channels.
