Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 10, 2025, 04:59 UTC
I. Overall Strategic Situation
Operational Tempo: High intensity combat persists across the front, particularly on the Pokrovsk, Lyman, Toretsk, Kupyansk, Siversk, Kursk/Sumy Border, Novopavlivsk, Huliaipole, and Orikhiv axes. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW, Apr 9 assessment) confirms ongoing Russian pressure and advances near Kupyansk, Lyman, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, western Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and the Kursk/Sumy border area, while noting Ukrainian advances on the Pokrovsk and Toretsk axes.
Russian Offensive Posture: Russian forces maintain a high operational tempo using extensive Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs - 105 reported used Apr 9; claimed FAB-3000 use near Miropolske/Petrushevka, Belgorod Oblast), massed artillery (nearly 5000 shelling incidents Apr 9), FPV/Kamikaze drones (1068 used Apr 9), Geran-2 (Shahed) strikes (Kyiv, Kharkiv, Khmelnytskyi, Mykolaiv Oblasts targeted overnight Apr 9-10), and ground assaults. Russian sources claim strikes against 149 Ukrainian concentration areas and facilities allegedly involved in missile/UAV production. Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi previously assessed heightened Russian activity as indicative of offensive preparations towards Sumy and/or Kharkiv Oblasts. Ukrainian sources claim observed Russian tactical changes (increased reliance on infantry/vehicles over armor) stem from heavy armored vehicle losses.
Kursk/Sumy Border: Russian forces confirmed control of Huyevo (Kursk). Intense fighting continues near Oleshnia, Hornal (Kursk) and Loknya (Sumy). Russian forces reportedly reached the Gornal line. Status of Basivka (Sumy) contested (RU claimed capture Apr 6; UA denied Apr 6; RU claims UA counter-attack repelled Apr 9-10). RU Claim: Capture of Zhuravka (Sumy) by Ussuriysk paratroopers (Apr 10). UA Claim: UA 82nd Air Assault Bde successfully ambushed RU infantry group attempting advance towards Sumy Oblast (Apr 10). ISW confirms Russian advances in the border area (Apr 9). Russian state sources made highly likely exaggerated claims of evacuating "tens of thousands" of deceased Ukrainian soldiers.
Kupyansk Axis: ISW assesses Russian advances near Kupyansk (Apr 9). High intensity reported near Kamyanka (Apr 10).
Lyman Axis: Russian forces confirmed control of Katerynivka. DeepState confirms Russian advance near Katerynivka. ISW confirms Russian advances near Katerynivka and Torske/Nove (Apr 9). RU Claim (Rybar, Apr 10): Control over chain of UA strongpoints east of Nove, expanding bridgehead on left bank of Zherebets River (not Dnipro), aiming to cut O-05-26 supply route. RU sources claim consolidation east of Nove, approach towards settlement, advances near Torske (claiming entry into northern part), and advances near Katerynivka towards Mykhailivka. Some Ukrainian sources describe the situation as critical.
Chasiv Yar (Kramatorsk Axis): Russian forces previously confirmed advance near Zapadnyi microdistrict (DeepState, Apr 6). RU Claim (Rybar, Apr 10): Ongoing urban combat, RU forces attempting flanking maneuvers north and south. Persistent UA resistance reported. RU claim "Baba Yaga" heavy drone shot down by VDV near Chasiv Yar (Apr 10).
Toretsk Axis: DeepState confirms Russian advances near Druzhba, Kalynove, and Nadiivka (Apr 9). ISW confirms these RU advances (Apr 9) and reported Ukrainian advances. RU Claim (Rybar, Apr 10): Fighting near Tsentralna mine, advances west of Zabalka microdistrict, and advances within Druzhba. High UA drone activity noted as hindering RU advances. Russian sources also claim significant advances near Ozarianivka (600m), towards Dyleyivka, south of Horlivka (700m), and a breakthrough into Kalynove. Skepticism noted among RU sources regarding UA channel reports of RU advances towards Kalynove (Alexandro-Kalinin direction).
Pokrovsk Axis:Ukrainian forces recovered previously lost positions near Kotlyne (DeepState/ISW confirmation, Apr 9). ISW assesses continued Russian advances on this axis (Apr 9), noting geolocated RU advances in southern Tarasivka. Russian sources claim advances into central Kalynove. Footage of RU strikes on UA personnel/equipment in Tarasivka circulated (Apr 10).
Novopavlivsk Axis / South Donetsk: DeepState confirms Russian advances near Rozlyv and Rozdolne (Apr 9). ISW confirms Russian advances near these locations and towards Bohatyr (Apr 9). Russian forces claim capture of 4 strongpoints and 2 heights on the Bohatyr-Otradne line, preparing for assault on Bohatyr (Apr 10). RU sources claimed destruction of Ukrainian PVD in Bohatyr via UAV (Apr 10). Civilian evacuations reported from Velyka Novosilka (TASS, Apr 10). RU Claim: Ukrainian 100mm MT-12 Rapira AT gun destroyed near Velyka Novosilka (Apr 10).
Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia): ISW assesses Russian advances in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Apr 9), confirming via geolocated footage Russian advances in central Shcherbaky. Fighting ongoing near Mali Shcherbaky and Shcherbaky (Apr 10). RU Claim: FPV drone strike destroyed Ukrainian 120mm mortar near Stepove (Apr 10).
Ukrainian Defensive Operations: Maintain active defense. UGS reported repelling 19 Russian attacks in the Kursk operational zone on April 9. UA 82nd Air Assault Bde claimed ambush success against RU infantry near Sumy border (Apr 10). President Zelenskyy confirmed Ukrainian operations in Belgorod Oblast aim to disrupt Russian offensive preparations. Military Cabinet focused on frontline stabilization, supply chains, personnel.
Internal Procedures (Ukraine): Mobilization order for ex-Head of State Fiscal Service Roman Nasirov cancelled by military command. Military Law Enforcement Service (VSP) investigation initiated regarding legality of his conscription amidst ongoing legal proceedings (Operatyvnyi ZSU, Apr 10).
II. Air, Missile & Drone Threats (Updated 04:59 UTC)
Casualties (UPDATED by Mykolaiv OVA/RBC-Ukraine, Apr 10):10 civilians injured. 2 hospitalized (29yo F, 59yo M) in moderate condition; others treated outpatient.
Impacts Confirmed: Fires extinguished. Damage to 9 apartment buildings, 3 cars, 30 garages, administrative building confirmed (Mykolaiv OVA/Operatyvnyi ZSU, Apr 10). Video evidence shows damage.
Aftermath (Kyiv Region & City, Apr 9 Evening - CONFIRMED):
Impacts (Debris): SES confirmed response in Darnytskyi (damage to private houses/cars, 1 utility building destroyed) and Holosiivskyi districts (fire at non-residential warehouse). Two women treated on-site (stress, minor shrapnel wound); no hospitalization needed. Photos released (SES/Operatyvnyi ZSU, Apr 10).
Interceptions (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Overnight): Ukrainian PvK "East" confirmed destruction of 8 enemy UAVs over the oblast (Lysak/Vilkul, Apr 10).
Ongoing UAV Threat (ACTIVE):
Enemy attack UAVs reported active in northern Kharkiv Oblast (UA AF/RBC-Ukraine, ~04:51-04:52 UTC).
Tactical Aviation & KAB Threat (ONGOING):
Enemy tactical aviation activity persists on northeastern front (UA AF, 03:32 UTC), posing ongoing KAB/air strike threat. Russian helicopter seen deploying flares (Apr 10).
Previous Activity:105 KABs used Apr 9, heavy concentration (74 KABs) in Kursk border zone. Claimed FAB-3000 use near Miropolske/Petrushevka (Belgorod Oblast) (Apr 10). KAB strike reported on Novopavlivska community (Synelnykivskyi district, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast) evening Apr 9 (Lysak, Apr 10).
Reconnaissance UAV Activity (ONGOING):
Enemy recon UAV reported over Zaporizhzhia area; countermeasures engaged (UA AF, 01:43 UTC).
Alleged Ukrainian Strikes in Russia / Interceptions:
Intercept Claims (RU MoD, Apr 10 morning - UPDATED): Claimed interception of 42 Ukrainian UAVs overnight (Apr 9-10) over Bryansk (13), Kaluga (12), Kursk (7), Belgorod (4), Crimea (4), Oryol (1), and Moscow (1) Oblasts (RU MoD/TASS/ASTRA, Apr 10). Additional claim:6 more UA UAVs downed over Kursk Oblast (~07:05 MSK / 04:05 UTC) (RU MoD/TASS/Dva Mayora, Apr 10). Previous RU source (Arkangel Spetsnaza) claimed 162 UAVs intercepted over wider timeframe/regions.
Reported Helicopter-Type UAV (Naro-Fominsk, Moscow Oblast): Reports/video of AA fire targeting alleged helicopter-type UAV. Requires verification. Russian/Ukrainian sources express skepticism about feasibility due to range (Apr 10).
Bryansk: Video evidence suggests Ukrainian AASM Hammer guided bomb strike near Bryansk (Apr 9).
Belgorod Oblast Incident (Apr 8 - FAB Drop): Independent media (ASTRA), supported by alleged RU military video, confirms accidental Russian FAB bomb drop on Tomarovka-Rakitnoye road (Yakovlevsky district) on Apr 8, injuring civilian driver. Contradicts Belgorod Governor's claim of UA UAV attack. Marks at least 50th accidental RU ordnance drop since Jan 2025 (ASTRA, Apr 10). RU Investigative Committee stated intent to investigate "crime of the Ukrainian Armed Forces".
Zaporizhzhia Oblast Strikes (Past 24h):
Zaporizhzhia OVA reported 407 Russian strikes on 13 settlements: 4 air strikes (Huliaipole), 281 UAV attacks, 2 MLRS attacks, 120 artillery strikes. Damage to houses, structures, vehicles reported (Apr 10).
Nikopol District (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Overnight):
Russian UAV attacks targeted Nikopol city, Marhanets, and Chervonohryhorivka communities. Damage to private house and enterprise reported. No casualties (Lysak/Vilkul, Apr 10).
III. Key Frontline Developments (Based on UGS 22:00 UTC Apr 9, ISW Apr 9 & recent sources)
Kursk/Sumy Border Axis (High Intensity):
UGS reports UA repelled 19 Russian attacks in Kursk zone (Apr 9). UA drone units active in Belgorod Oblast. UA 225th Assault Bde video purportedly shows breach near Demidovka (Belgorod).
UA Claim: UA 82nd Air Assault Bde ambushed RU infantry group attempting advance towards Sumy Oblast (Tsaplienko video, Apr 10).
Russian forces conducted 46 air strikes (74 KABs) and 351 artillery attacks (Apr 9). RU control of Huyevo (Kursk) confirmed; destroyed UA M2 Bradley and BTR nearby. RU clearing operations near Huyevo; assaults/fighting near Oleshnia, Hornal (Kursk); claim reaching Gornal line. Fighting in Loknya (Sumy). Basovka (Sumy) contested; RU claim UA counter-attack repelled. RU Claim: Capture of Zhuravka (Sumy) (Apr 10). ISW assesses Russian advances (Apr 9). Continued KAB/Air Strike threat. Claimed FAB-3000 strike near Miropolske/Petrushevka vs UA concentrations. Civilian casualties reported in Krasnaya Yaruga (Belgorod); woman injured over Shebekino; shelling in multiple settlements. Civilian injured by accidental Russian FAB drop (Yakovlevsky district, Belgorod) (ASTRA, Apr 10).
Kharkiv Axis: UA repelled 4 Russian attacks near Vovchansk, Hlyboke, Kamyanka, Fyholivka; 2 engagements ongoing (UGS evening, Apr 9). ACTIVE THREAT: Enemy attack UAVs reported in northern Kharkiv Oblast (UA AF, ~04:51 UTC). Explosion reported in Kharkiv city (01:07 UTC). Ongoing RU tactical aviation threat on NE front. RU MoD video claims destruction of UA AFV via drone-miner (Apr 10).
Kupyansk Axis: UA repelled 2 Russian assaults near Zahryzove, Nova Kruhliakivka (UGS evening, Apr 9). ISW assesses Russian advances near Kupyansk (Apr 9). High intensity combat reported near Kamyanka (Apr 10).
Lyman Axis (High Intensity / Critical): UGS reported 21 Russian attacks (Apr 9), 11 ongoing (evening, Apr 9). Situation described as critical by some UA sources. RU forces confirmed control of Katerynivka, advanced near Katerynivka (DeepState; ISW confirms). ISW confirms Russian advances near Torske/Nove (Apr 9). RU Claim (Rybar, Apr 10): Control over chain of UA strongpoints east of Nove, expanding bridgehead on left bank of Zherebets River, aiming to cut O-05-26 supply route. RU sources claim consolidation east of Nove, approaching settlement, pushing near Katerynivka towards Mykhailivka, and advances near Torske (claiming entry into northern part).
Siversk Axis: UA repelled 6 Russian assaults towards Bilohorivka, Hryhorivka, Verkhnokamyanske (UGS evening, Apr 9).
Kramatorsk Axis (incl. Chasiv Yar): UGS reported 2 combat engagements near Chasiv Yar, 1 ongoing (evening, Apr 9). RU forces confirmed advance near Zapadnyi microdistrict (DeepState, Apr 6). RU Claim (Rybar, Apr 10): Ongoing urban combat, RU forces attempting flanking north/south. Claimed UA GBU-62 JDAM-ER strike in Soledar. RU Claim: VDV operator shot down Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" heavy drone near Chasiv Yar (Apr 10).
Toretsk Axis (High Intensity): UGS reported 15 Russian attacks (Apr 9), primarily targeting Toretsk, Druzhba, Dachne, Leonidivka, Shcherbynivka, 1 ongoing (evening, Apr 9). DeepState/ISW confirm Russian advances near Druzhba, Kalynove, Nadiivka (Apr 9). ISW notes reported Ukrainian advances. RU Claim (Rybar, Apr 10): Fighting near Tsentralna mine, advances west of Zabalka microdistrict, advances within Druzhba. High UA drone activity hindering RU advances. Other RU sources claim advances near Ozarianivka, Dyleyivka, S. of Horlivka, and breakthrough/entry into Kalynove.
Pokrovsk Axis (Highest Intensity): UGS reported 26 Russian attempts (Apr 9), 3 ongoing (evening, Apr 9). Ukrainian forces recovered positions near Kotlyne (DeepState/ISW confirmation, Apr 9). ISW assesses continued Russian advances, noting geolocated RU advances in southern Tarasivka (Apr 9). RU sources claim advance into central Kalynove. RU sources circulate footage of strikes on UA forces in Tarasivka (Apr 10). UGS reported significant RU losses: 232 personnel (128 KIA, 104 WIA), 1 tank, 6 BMPs destroyed (Apr 9). RU forces reportedly employing "Molniya-2" kamikaze drones (Apr 10).
Novopavlivsk Axis / South Donetsk Direction: UGS reported 3 Russian attacks near Kostiantynopil/Bahatyr; 2 repelled (evening, Apr 9). DeepState/ISW confirm Russian advances near Rozlyv, Rozdolne, towards Bohatyr (Apr 9). Russian MoD video confirms use of 2S3 Akatsiya SPGs (Apr 10). RU Claim: Capture of 4 strongpoints, 2 heights on Bohatyr-Otradne line, preparing assault on Bohatyr (Apr 10). RU claim destruction of UA PVD in Bohatyr via UAV (Apr 10). RU Claim: Ukrainian 100mm MT-12 Rapira AT gun destroyed near Velyka Novosilka (Colonelcassad video, Apr 10). Civilian evacuations from Velyka Novosilka (TASS, Apr 10).
Huliaipole Axis: UGS reported 5 Russian attacks near Novosilka/Shevchenko (Apr 9). Huliaipole city attacked with KABs/NARs. Zap. OVA reports 4 RU air strikes on Huliaipole (past 24h).
Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia): UA repelled 6 Russian assaults near Stepove, Mali Shcherbaky, Lobkove, Shcherbaky (UGS evening, Apr 9). ISW confirms RU advance in central Shcherbaky (Apr 9). Fighting near Mali Shcherbaky/Shcherbaky (Apr 10). RU Claim: Destruction of Ukrainian T-64BV tank via fiber-optic FPV drone ("KVN") in Novodanylivka (Apr 10). RU Claim: FPV drone strike destroyed Ukrainian 120mm mortar near Stepove (Apr 10). Enemy recon UAV active over Zaporizhzhia area (01:43 UTC). Heavy RU drone/artillery/air strikes across oblast (Zap. OVA, Apr 10).
Prydniprovsky Axis (Left Bank): UGS reported no active Russian offensive actions (Apr 9). UA forces confirm strike on Russian 81st Artillery Regiment CP (Apr 7).
IV. Capabilities, Logistics & International Support
Ukrainian:
Air Defense: Urgent need for at least 10 Patriot systems reiterated. Recent Shahed attacks caused confirmed damage/injuries in Mykolaiv (10 injured) and Kyiv (debris damage/2 minor injuries). Active AD vs recon UAV (Zaporizhzhia). Ballistic missile alert resolved (Kyiv/Central). 8 enemy UAVs downed over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast overnight (Apr 9-10).
Western Aid:150 Roshel Senator MRAPs delivered via US aid since Jan 2025 (40 more en route). EU pledges €9B defense aid by end 2025. Belgium committed €1B annual aid, F-16s, joint production. €1B received via EU/G7 ERA initiative (frozen RU assets) (PM Shmyhal, Apr 10). German support reaffirmed. Ramstein (Apr 11) focus: AD, joint production.
Capabilities: Active FPV use, artillery. Demonstrated breach capability (225th Bde). Confirmed AASM Hammer use (Bryansk); claimed GBU-62 JDAM-ER use (Soledar). Increased fiber-optic FPV production planned. 154th OMBr using modified FPVs vs RU recon UAVs (Kharkiv). Successful ambush tactics claimed (82nd AABde, Sumy border).
Vulnerabilities:RU Claim: Destruction of two Ukrainian UAV command posts by Sparta Battalion drone drops. RU Claim: Destruction of Ukrainian 100mm MT-12 Rapira AT gun near Velyka Novosilka. RU Claim: Destruction of 120mm mortar near Stepove.
Internal Procedures: Mobilization order for ex-official Roman Nasirov cancelled pending VSP investigation (Apr 10). Kryvyi Rih Attack (Apr 4) Aftermath: 28 injured still hospitalized (5 children); 7 critical (4 children) (Vilkul, Apr 10).
Russian:
Capabilities: Heavy use of KABs (incl. claimed FAB-3000), artillery, FPV/Shahed drones. Confirmed S-8 rockets (loft-bombing), 2S3 Akatsiya SPGs with UAV/anti-drone protection. New drones/EW (Zaporizhzhia front). RU Claim: Successful use of fiber-optic FPV drones ("KVN") vs UA tank (Novodanylivka). RU Claim: Destruction of UA PVD (Bohatyr), AFV (Kharkiv Obl via drone-miner), 120mm mortar (Stepove), MT-12 AT Gun (V. Novosilka). Use of "Molniya-2" (Pokrovsk) & "Veter-10" drones claimed. RU Claim:Sparta Battalion capability to destroy UA UAV CPs. 11th Guards Air Assault Bde awarded for Sudzha pipeline operation. Confirmed sniper activity (Zaporizhzhia). Continued Shahed attacks (Mykolaiv/Kyiv impacts confirmed). Active tactical aviation (NE front). Potential New Capability: Reports of helicopter-type UAV near Moscow (Naro-Fominsk) remain unverified, met with skepticism.
Logistics/Challenges: Persistent accidental bomb drops (at least 50 since Jan 2025), confirmed by ASTRA report on Apr 8 FAB drop (Belgorod) injuring civilian. Fundraising/improvised armor indicates drone threat vulnerabilities. Urals oil price below $50/barrel (TASS, Apr 10). Civilian evacuations from Velyka Novosilka (TASS, Apr 10). Proposed legislation to increase paid leave for "SVO veterans".
V. Reported Losses (Recent Claims & Confirmations)
Ukrainian Personnel:
General Staff Claim (Apr 10):+1420 Russian personnel neutralized in past 24 hours. Total estimate since Feb 24, 2022: ~929,000.
Ukrainian Civilians:
Mykolaiv Oblast (UPDATED):10 civilians injured from Shahed attack (Apr 9 evening). 2 hospitalized (moderate condition) (Mykolaiv OVA/RBC-Ukraine, Apr 10).
Kyiv City/Region:2 women treated on-site (stress, minor shrapnel) from drone debris (Apr 9 evening) (SES/Operatyvnyi ZSU, Apr 10).
Belgorod Oblast: 1 civilian killed, 2 wounded (Krasnaya Yaruga FPV strikes). Woman injured (Shebekino UAV downing). Civilian driver injured by accidental Russian FAB drop (Apr 8, confirmed ASTRA Apr 10).
Occupied DNR: Multiple casualties reported in Mironovsky, Gorlovka, Yasynuvata area from shelling/UXO/drone drops (Apr 9).
VI. Ukrainian Operations in Russian Territory
Border Engagements: UGS reports repelling 19 Russian attacks in Kursk zone (Apr 9). UA forces attempt breaches near Popovka/Demidovka (Belgorod); met with heavy RU fire (incl. alleged FAB-3000 strike). UA 225th Assault Regt video purports breach near Demidovka. UA drone units active in Belgorod. UA Claim: 82nd AABde ambushed RU infantry advancing towards Sumy Oblast (Apr 10).
Deep Strikes: RU MoD claims interception of 42 UA UAVs overnight (Apr 9-10) over Bryansk (13), Kaluga (12), Kursk (7), Belgorod (4), Crimea (4), Oryol (1), Moscow (1) Oblasts. Additional RU MoD Claim:6 more UA UAVs downed over Kursk Oblast (~04:05 UTC Apr 10). Drone, potentially helicopter-type, reportedly downed over Naro-Fominsk (Moscow Oblast) (Unverified, skepticism noted). Confirmed AASM Hammer strike near Bryansk (Apr 9). Independent media (ASTRA) confirms Belgorod road incident caused by accidental RU FAB drop, not UA UAV (Apr 10).
VII. Other Significant Developments
Internal Security (Ukraine): SBU thwarted alleged FSB IED plot (Khmelnytskyi); disrupted RU agent network (arson). Mobilization order for ex-official Roman Nasirov cancelled pending VSP investigation (Apr 10).
Russian Internal/Legal: Ex-Sevastopol Governor Ovsynnikov found guilty (UK sanctions breach). Prozorov bombing investigation completed. Deadline for Ukrainians in Russia to regularize status (Sep 10, 2025). Proposed law to increase paid leave for "SVO veterans". Migrant labor restrictions expanding. Large fire at Greenwich shopping center, Yekaterinburg (ASTRA, Apr 10).
Geopolitics & Economy: Focus on securing Western AD (Patriot). Ramstein (Apr 11) upcoming. Belgian aid package finalized. EU transferred €1B (frozen RU assets) to Ukraine (PM Shmyhal, Apr 10). Russian Urals oil price dropped below $50/barrel (TASS, Apr 10). Russian Mosbirzhi Index rose (+4.5%). NZ lifted sanctions on RU businessman Abramov. Serbia reiterated opposition to sanctions/ban on RU media. US ready to staff Moscow embassy for visa issuance.
Information Environment: RU sources showcase hardware (Akatsiya, Tor-M2, Molniya-2, Veter-10, drone-miner) and specific strike claims (T-64BV, UAV CPs, mortar, PVD, AFV, MT-12). ASTRA report refutes RU Belgorod FAB drop narrative. SES/Mykolaiv OVA release damage photos/videos. UA GS posts daily loss estimates, claims RU tactical shifts due to armor deficit. RU sources discuss potential UA psyop (Kalynove advance reports). RU sources claim capture of Zhuravka (Sumy), advances near Bohatyr (S. Donetsk). Reports of Velyka Novosilka evacuations framed by RU sources. RU 11th Guards AABde awards highlighted. Propaganda themes: "Traditional Values," "GFCN" launch, soldier/pet images. Unverified claims about helicopter-type UAV near Moscow circulated by both sides. Ukrainian sources highlight RU strike impact on civilians (Mykolaiv, Kyiv, Kryvyi Rih). Video evidence of UA ambush on Sumy border released.
