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Historical Intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing

Report Time
2025-04-10 02:31:10Z
10 months ago
Previous (2025-04-10 02:01:15Z)

Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 10, 2025, 02:29 UTC

I. Overall Strategic Situation

  • Operational Tempo: High intensity combat operations persist across the front, with 111 combat engagements reported on April 9. The primary axes of engagement are Pokrovsk, Lyman, Toretsk, Kupyansk, Siversk, the Kursk/Sumy Border region, Novopavlivsk, Huliaipole, and Orikhiv. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW, Apr 9 assessment) confirms ongoing Russian pressure and advances near Kupyansk, Lyman, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, western Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and the Kursk/Sumy border area, while also noting Ukrainian advances on the Pokrovsk and Toretsk axes.

  • Russian Offensive Posture: Russian forces maintain a high operational tempo, characterized by extensive use of Guided Aerial Bombs (105 KABs reported used on April 9), massed artillery (nearly 5000 shelling incidents), FPV/Kamikaze drones (1068 used), and ground assaults. Russian sources claim strikes against 149 Ukrainian concentration areas and facilities allegedly involved in missile/UAV production. Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi previously assessed heightened Russian activity as indicative of offensive preparations towards Sumy and/or Kharkiv Oblasts.

  • Territorial Control & Claims (Incorporating ISW Apr 9 Assessment):

    • Kursk/Sumy Border: Russian forces confirmed control of Huyevo (Kursk Oblast), with visual confirmation of destroyed Ukrainian M2 Bradley IFV and BTR nearby. Intense fighting continues near Oleshnia, Hornal (Kursk) and Loknya (Sumy). Russian forces reportedly reached the Gornal line, preparing further assaults. The status of Basivka (Sumy Oblast) remains contested (RU claimed capture Apr 6; UA Border Guard denied Apr 6, confirming combat). ISW confirms Russian advances in the border area (Apr 9). Russian state sources (TASS) made highly likely exaggerated claims of evacuating "tens of thousands" of deceased Ukrainian soldiers from the Kursk border area.
    • Kupyansk Axis: ISW assesses Russian advances near Kupyansk (Apr 9).
    • Lyman Axis: Russian forces confirmed control of Katerynivka. DeepState confirms Russian advance near Katerynivka. ISW confirms Russian advances near Katerynivka and Torske/Nove (Apr 9). Russian sources claim consolidation east of Nove and approach towards the settlement, advances near Torske (claiming entry into northern part), and advances near Katerynivka towards Mykhailivka. Some Ukrainian sources describe the situation as critical.
    • Toretsk Axis: DeepState confirms Russian advances near Druzhba, Kalynove, and Nadiivka (Apr 9). ISW confirms Russian advances near these locations (Apr 9) while also noting reported Ukrainian advances on this axis. Russian sources claim significant advances near Ozarianivka (600m), towards Dyleyivka, south of Horlivka (700m), and a breakthrough into Kalynove.
    • Pokrovsk Axis: Ukrainian forces recovered previously lost positions near Kotlyne (DeepState confirmation, Apr 9; ISW confirms Ukrainian advances near Kotlyne, Apr 9). ISW also assesses continued Russian advances on this axis (Apr 9), specifically noting geolocated RU advances in southern Tarasivka. Russian sources claim advances into central Kalynove.
    • Novopavlivsk Axis / South Donetsk: DeepState confirms Russian advances near Rozlyv and Rozdolne (Apr 9). ISW confirms Russian advances near these locations and towards Bohatyr (Apr 9), noting geolocated footage of RU advances south of Bohdanivka. Russian sources previously claimed a breakthrough 1.2km deep / 2.2km wide near Dniproenerhiia–Otradne and advances towards Komar/Otradne and Bohatyr.
    • Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia): ISW assesses Russian advances in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Apr 9), specifically confirming via geolocated footage Russian advances in central Shcherbaky.
    • Chasiv Yar (Kramatorsk Axis): Russian forces previously confirmed advance near Zapadnyi microdistrict (DeepState, Apr 6). Russian sources claim control persists over the northern bank of the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas canal (Kanal microdistrict) with ongoing Ukrainian counter-attacks (Apr 8).

  • Ukrainian Defensive Operations: Ukrainian forces maintain active defense, repelling numerous assaults. UGS reported repelling 19 Russian attacks in the Kursk operational zone on April 9. President Zelenskyy confirmed Ukrainian operations in Belgorod Oblast are intended to disrupt Russian offensive preparations. The Military Cabinet focused on frontline stabilization, supply chain efficiency, and personnel staffing.

II. Air, Missile & Drone Threats (Updated 02:29 UTC)

  • Shahed Drone Attack Aftermath (Mykolaiv, Apr 9 Evening):
    • Casualties: Mykolaiv OVA Head Vitaliy Kim reports casualties requiring hospitalization (2 individuals); others received medical assistance on site (RBC-Ukraine, 01:02 UTC).
    • Impacts Confirmed: Following the Shahed attack wave, fires were reported in multiple locations ("several yards in 2 districts") (Kim / Nikolaevskiy Vanek, 00:08 UTC). Mykolaiv Mayor Senkevych confirmed damage to infrastructure; emergency services are assessing consequences (00:42 UTC).
    • Interceptions: Prior reports indicated successful interceptions ("minus") of attacking Shaheds over Mykolaiv city (~23:59 UTC). The confirmed fires, damage, and casualties indicate either some drones penetrated defenses or falling debris caused the effects.
    • Reconnaissance Activity: Following the attack, two Russian reconnaissance UAVs remained active over the city (~23:59 UTC).
  • Explosion Reported (Kharkiv):
    • An explosion was heard in Kharkiv city (RBC-Ukraine, 01:07 UTC). Details regarding the cause (missile, drone, other) and impact are pending.
  • Shahed Drone Attack (Kyiv Region & City, Apr 9 Evening):
    • Air Alert Ended: Alert concluded in Kyiv city (KMVA, 22:37 UTC).
    • Impacts (Debris):
      • Holosiivskyi District: Fire at non-residential warehouse premises.
      • Darnytskyi District: Private residential building destroyed, one civilian reported trapped.
  • Tactical Aviation & KAB Threat (ONGOING):
    • Ongoing activity of Russian tactical aviation on the northeastern front reported (UA AF, 01:44 UTC), posing a persistent threat of KAB strikes to frontline oblasts.
    • KABs reported heading towards Sumy Oblast (UA AF, 01:46 UTC).
    • NEW: Further KAB launch reported towards Sumy Oblast (UA AF, 02:22 UTC).
    • UGS reported 62 Russian air strikes using 105 KABs across the front on April 9, with heavy concentration (46 strikes, 74 KABs) in the Kursk border zone. Huliaipole city was also targeted.
  • Reconnaissance UAV Activity (ONGOING):
    • Enemy reconnaissance UAV reported over Zaporizhzhia area; countermeasures engaged (UA AF, 01:43 UTC).
  • Russian Air Capabilities: Video evidence (Apr 9) confirms Russian attack aircraft employing S-8 unguided air-to-surface rockets using a loft-bombing (cabrirovanie) technique. Visual evidence (Apr 9) confirms deployment of Tor-M2 air defense systems in forward positions.
  • Alleged Ukrainian Strikes in Russia:
    • Earlier reports of possible UAV activity in Moscow/Kaluga Oblasts (Apr 9); flight restrictions lifted at Kaluga airport (23:07 UTC).
    • Video evidence suggests a Ukrainian AASM Hammer guided bomb strike on a facility near Bryansk.
    • Russian MoD claimed interception of 19 Ukrainian UAVs over multiple regions (Apr 9). Rybar (RU source) claimed 180 UA UAVs intercepted overnight (Apr 8-9).

III. Key Frontline Developments (Based on UGS 22:00 UTC Apr 9, ISW Apr 9 & other recent sources)

  • Kursk/Sumy Border Axis (High Intensity):
    • UGS reports Ukrainian forces repelled 19 Russian attacks in the Kursk zone (Apr 9). Ukrainian drone units continue operations in Belgorod Oblast. UA 225th Assault Bde video purportedly shows breaching Russian lines near Demidovka (Belgorod).
    • Russian forces conducted 46 air strikes (74 KABs) and 351 artillery attacks (Apr 9). RU control of Huyevo (Kursk) confirmed; destroyed Ukrainian M2 Bradley and BTR observed nearby. Intense fighting persists near Oleshnia and Hornal (Kursk). Russian forces claim reaching the Gornal line. Fighting reported in Loknya (Sumy). ISW assesses Russian advances in the border area (Apr 9). RU MoD claims >230 Ukrainian losses (Apr 9). TASS (RU state source) claims (likely exaggerated) evacuation of "tens of thousands" of deceased UA soldiers. NEW: Renewed KAB threat active for Sumy Oblast (01:46, 02:22 UTC).
  • Kharkiv Axis: Ukrainian forces repelled 4 Russian attacks near Vovchansk, Hlyboke, Kamyanka, Fyholivka; 2 engagements ongoing (UGS evening). Complex but stable situation (UA Command, Apr 8). Explosion reported in Kharkiv city (01:07 UTC). Ongoing RU tactical aviation threat reported on NE front (01:44 UTC).
  • Kupyansk Axis: Ukrainian forces repelled 2 Russian assaults near Zahryzove and Nova Kruhliakivka (UGS evening). ISW assesses Russian advances near Kupyansk (Apr 9).
  • Lyman Axis (High Intensity / Critical): UGS reported 21 Russian attacks (Apr 9), 11 ongoing at 22:00 UTC. Situation described as critical by some UA sources. Russian forces confirmed control of Katerynivka and advanced near Katerynivka (DeepState; ISW confirms). ISW also confirms Russian advances near Torske/Nove (Apr 9). RU sources claim consolidation east of Nove, approaching the settlement, pushing near Katerynivka towards Mykhailivka, and advances near Torske/Novoliubivka. RU source claims Geran-2 strike on alleged PVD near Serhiivka. Potential presence of RU 11th Guards Air Assault Bde elements noted.
  • Siversk Axis: Ukrainian forces repelled 6 Russian assaults towards Bilohorivka, Hryhorivka, Verkhnokamyanske (UGS evening).
  • Kramatorsk Axis (incl. Chasiv Yar): UGS reported 2 combat engagements near Chasiv Yar, 1 ongoing (evening). RU forces confirmed advance near Zapadnyi microdistrict (DeepState, Apr 6). RU source claimed FPV strike on alleged UA UAV antennas (Apr 9). Claimed UA GBU-62 JDAM-ER strike in Soledar.
  • Toretsk Axis (High Intensity): UGS reported 15 Russian attacks (Apr 9), primarily targeting Toretsk, Druzhba, Dachne, Leonidivka, Shcherbynivka, 1 ongoing (evening). DeepState confirms Russian advances near Druzhba, Kalynove, Nadiivka (Apr 9); ISW confirms these RU advances (Apr 9), while also noting reported Ukrainian advances on this axis. RU sources claim advances near Ozarianivka, Dyleyivka, S. of Horlivka, and breakthrough/entry into Kalynove.
  • Pokrovsk Axis (Highest Intensity): UGS reported 26 Russian attempts (Apr 9), 3 ongoing (evening). Ukrainian forces recovered positions near Kotlyne (DeepState, Apr 9; ISW confirms UA advance near Kotlyne, Apr 9). ISW assesses continued Russian advances on this axis (Apr 9), noting geolocated RU advances in southern Tarasivka. RU sources claim advance into central Kalynove. UGS reported significant RU losses: 232 personnel (128 KIA, 104 WIA), 1 tank, 6 BMPs destroyed (Apr 9). NEW: RU forces reportedly employing "Molniya-2" kamikaze drones to support ground assaults in this sector (Colonelcassad, 02:15 UTC).
  • Novopavlivsk Axis / South Donetsk Direction: UGS reported 3 Russian attacks near Kostiantynopil and towards Bahatyr; 2 repelled (evening). DeepState confirms Russian advances near Rozlyv and Rozdolne (Apr 9); ISW confirms these RU advances and towards Bohatyr (Apr 9), noting geolocated RU advances south of Bohdanivka. Russian MoD video (Apr 10, 00:03 UTC) confirms use of 2S3 Akatsiya SPGs in this sector, supported by UAV reconnaissance and ground observers with anti-drone measures. RU sources previously claimed a 1.2km deep / 2.2km wide breakthrough near Dniproenerhiia–Otradne and advance towards Bohatyr.
  • Huliaipole Axis: UGS reported 5 Russian attacks near Novosilka and towards Shevchenko (Apr 9). Huliaipole city attacked with KABs/NARs.
  • Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia): Ukrainian forces repelled 6 Russian assaults near Stepove, Mali Shcherbaky, Lobkove, Shcherbaky (UGS evening). ISW assesses Russian advances in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Apr 9), specifically confirming RU advance in central Shcherbaky. Delivery of new Russian drones/EW systems reported. Confirmed Russian sniper activity (Video, Apr 9). RU Claim: Russian sources claim destruction of a Ukrainian T-64BV tank using a fiber-optic FPV drone ("KVN") in Novodanylivka (Colonelcassad, 00:35 UTC). Enemy recon UAV active over Zaporizhzhia area, AD engaged (01:43 UTC).
  • Prydniprovsky Axis (Left Bank): UGS reported no active Russian offensive actions (Apr 9). Ukrainian forces confirm strike on Russian 81st Artillery Regiment CP (Apr 7). ISW map indicates ongoing fighting near Krynky/islands.

IV. Capabilities, Logistics & International Support

  • Ukrainian:
    • Air Defense: Urgent need for at least 10 Patriot systems reiterated. Recent Shahed attack causing damage/fires/casualties in Mykolaiv and damage/trapped civilian (debris) in Kyiv underscores this gap. Successful interceptions reported but impacts/debris effects occurred. Active AD engagement reported vs recon UAV over Zaporizhzhia (Apr 10).
    • Western Aid: 150 Roshel Senator MRAPs delivered via US aid since Jan 2025 (40 more en route). EU pledges €9B defense aid by end of 2025. Belgium committed €1B annual aid, F-16s (2025/26), joint production. €1B received via EU/G7 ERA initiative (frozen RU assets). German coalition reaffirms support. Ramstein (Apr 11) focus: AD, joint production.
    • Capabilities: Active FPV use, artillery. Demonstrated breach capability (225th Bde). Confirmed AASM Hammer use (Bryansk); claimed GBU-62 JDAM-ER use (Soledar). Plans for increased fiber-optic FPV production. 154th OMBr using modified FPVs vs RU recon UAVs (Kharkiv).
  • Russian:
    • Capabilities: Heavy reliance on KABs, artillery, FPV/Shahed drones. Confirmed use of S-8 rockets (loft-bombing). Confirmed use of 2S3 Akatsiya SPGs with UAV spotting and anti-drone protection (observers with specialized rifles) on South Donetsk front (Apr 10). Deployment of new drones (Rusak, Golub-T, etc.) & EW (Shorokh, Gran) on Zaporizhzhia front. RU Claim: Use of fiber-optic FPV drones ("KVN") claimed successful in destroying Ukrainian tank (T-64BV) in Novodanylivka (Zaporizhzhia) (Apr 10). Use of drone detectors (ASEM) (Pokrovsk). Claimed Geran-2 strike (Lyman). Increased focus on ground robotic systems planned for 2025. Visuals confirm Tor-M2, BMPs, MANPADS, anti-drone cages, camouflage. Potential 11th Guards Air Assault Bde presence. Confirmed sniper activity (Zaporizhzhia). Continued Shahed attacks (Mykolaiv impacts/damage/casualties confirmed). Deployment of recon UAVs post-attack (Mykolaiv) and ongoing activity (Zaporizhzhia). Tactical aviation active NE front (Apr 10). NEW: Claimed use of "Veter-10" drones by 5th Army (1466th MSP) for strikes against UA personnel/equipment (Location unspecified, Voin DV, 02:04 UTC). NEW: Deployment and claimed effectiveness of "Molniya-2" kamikaze drones (fixed-wing, ~30km range, larger payload, 10 min prep) by Group "Center" on Pokrovsk axis (Colonelcassad, 02:15 UTC). NEW: Awarding of Order of Suvorov and Order of Zhukov to an unnamed RU DShB involved in "Operation Potok," signaling high-level recognition for recent combat operations (TASS/MoD, 02:14 UTC).
    • Logistics/Challenges: Persistent accidental bomb drops (at least 50 since Jan 2025) linked to UMPK flaws. Fundraising for EW backpacks, volunteer improvised armor indicate drone threat vulnerabilities. Price of Urals oil dropped below $50/barrel (TASS, Apr 10), potentially impacting long-term war financing.

V. Reported Losses (Recent Claims & Confirmations)

  • Ukrainian Personnel: Lt. Col. Volodymyr Hlozhyk (Dep Cmdr, 808th Border Guard Bde) KIA Sep 28, 2024 (buried Apr 7, 2025).
  • Ukrainian Equipment/Personnel (RU Claims):
    • Visually confirmed destroyed/damaged M2 Bradley IFV and BTR near Huyevo (Kursk).
    • Claimed destruction of a Ukrainian T-64BV tank via fiber-optic FPV drone in Novodanylivka (Zaporizhzhia) (Colonelcassad, 00:35 UTC).
    • NEW Claim: Destruction of unspecified UA equipment on Pokrovsk axis via "Molniya-2" drone (Colonelcassad, 02:15 UTC).
    • NEW Claim: Destruction of unspecified UA personnel and equipment via "Veter-10" drones by 5th Army (1466th MSP) (Location unspecified, Voin DV, 02:04 UTC).
    • RU MoD claims >230 UA personnel neutralized (Kursk, Apr 9).
    • TASS (RU state source) claims evacuation of "tens of thousands" deceased UA soldiers from Kursk border (likely highly exaggerated).
  • Russian Personnel/Equipment (UA Claims/Reports):
    • Pokrovsk Axis: 232 RU personnel neutralized (128 KIA, 104 WIA), 1 tank, 6 BMPs destroyed (UGS, Apr 9). Record 10,027 RU MIA requests (March 2025), linked to Pokrovsk/Bakhmut fronts. Claimed destruction of TOS rocket transport (Apr 8).
    • Kursk/Sumy Border: UA drone units imply significant RU losses. 141 MIA requests (March) for RU 810th Naval Inf Bde.
    • Lyman Axis: UA 63rd Bde claimed 17 RU KIA via drones (Apr 9). Claimed shootdown of RU Merlin-VR recon UAV (Apr 8).
    • Kherson Left Bank: 20-30 RU KIA claimed from strike on 81st Arty Regt CP (Apr 7).
    • South Donetsk: Tactical Group "Vugledar" claimed destruction of 2 tanks, 2 IFVs, 8 vehicles, ~50 personnel near Bohdanivka (Apr 8).
    • Mykolaiv Oblast: UA AD reported successful Shahed interceptions, but subsequent fires, damage, and casualties (2 hospitalized) confirmed impacts/debris effects (Apr 9-10).
    • Bomber: C-in-C Syrskyi claimed UA drone destroyed a Russian Tu-22M3 bomber "several days ago" (Verification Required).

VI. Ukrainian Operations in Russian Territory

  • Border Engagements: UGS reports repelling 19 Russian attacks within Kursk zone (Apr 9). UA 225th Assault Regt video purportedly shows breach near Demidovka (Belgorod). UA drone units confirm ongoing strikes in Belgorod. High intensity combat reported, potential significant UA losses suggested by exaggerated RU claims. ISW map confirms contested area and RU advances.
  • Deep Strikes: Suspected earlier UAV activity in Kaluga, Moscow Oblasts (Apr 9); Kaluga airport restrictions lifted (23:07 UTC). Confirmed AASM Hammer strike near Bryansk. Rybar (RU source) claimed 180 UA UAVs intercepted overnight (Apr 8-9).

VII. Other Significant Developments

  • Foreign Nationals in Conflict: SBU released details of captured Chinese nationals recruited by Russia. President Zelenskyy confirmed two captured (Donetsk Oblast), stating >150 may be involved. MFA instructed to contact Beijing.
  • Internal Security (Ukraine): SBU thwarted alleged FSB IED plot (Khmelnytskyi). SBU/PGO disrupted 9-person RU agent network involved in arson (ZSU vehicles/railways). Lawyer detained for alleged bribery (Vinnytsia). Updated policy on returning AWOL servicemen.
  • Russian Internal/Legal:
    • Ex-Sevastopol Governor Dmitry Ovsynnikov found guilty by London court of breaching UK sanctions (Reuters/TASS, Apr 10).
    • Investigation into the car bombing of ex-SBU officer Vasily Prozorov in Moscow completed (TASS, Apr 10).
    • Ukrainian citizens in Russia (excl. newly occupied regions) must regularize status by Sep 10, 2025, or face standard stay limits.
    • Proposed legislation to increase paid leave for "special operation" veterans to 35 days.
    • Expanding migrant labor restrictions reported in multiple regions.
    • MP asks antitrust service (FAS) to prevent potential pre-Easter egg price hikes (TASS, Apr 10).
  • Geopolitics & Economy:
    • Focus remains on securing Western air defense (Patriot). Ramstein (Apr 11), "Coalition of the Resolute" (Apr 10) meetings critical.
    • Belgian support package finalized. Potential US absence from Ramstein noted. US troop repositioning in Poland clarified as optimization.
    • Russian Urals oil price dropped below $50/barrel for the first time since June 2023 (Argus/TASS, Apr 10).
    • Japanese Nikkei index surged (+5.4% initially, accelerating to +7.4%) following reports of potential US tariff policy shifts (TASS, Apr 10).
    • Thailand expressed interest in Russian LNG imports. Ongoing US-China trade tensions; Trump stated trade war not finished but countries seek agreements (TASS, Apr 10). Serbian Vice PM stated Serbia will not ban Russian state media (TASS) and reiterated opposition to sanctions, claiming they would cost Serbia €15 billion and potentially threaten national stability (Vulin/TASS, Apr 10).
  • Information Environment: Tucker Carlson interview claims US "lost" Ukraine war. Russian sources showcase military hardware (Akatsiya, Tor-M2, Molniya-2, Veter-10, award ceremonies) for propaganda, including specific strike claims (T-64BV destruction via fiber-optic FPV). TASS disseminates exaggerated claims of UA losses (Kursk). Serbian govt allows Russian media, reinforces anti-sanctions stance. Voin DV channel posts analysis alongside MoD video, amplifying propaganda message of RU artillery effectiveness (Apr 10). Russian sources promote narratives regarding civilian life under alleged Ukrainian occupation (Huyevo), including resident testimony about relying on a cow for survival (TASS, Apr 10). RVvoenkor promotes content contrasting "Traditional Values" (Christianity) with "Neo-paganism," framing the latter as a foreign-backed project undermining Russian identity (Apr 10). Russia launches website for "Global Fact-Checking Network" (GFCN) via MFA/TASS, framing it as a tool against Western disinformation (RVVoenkor, 01:59 UTC).
Previous (2025-04-10 02:01:15Z)

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