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Historical Intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing

Report Time
2025-04-09 23:30:51Z
10 months ago
Previous (2025-04-09 23:00:53Z)

Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 9, 2025, 23:29 UTC

I. Overall Strategic Situation

  • Operational Tempo: High intensity combat operations persist across the front, with 111 combat engagements reported on April 9. The primary axes of engagement are Pokrovsk, Lyman, Toretsk, Kupyansk, Siversk, the Kursk/Sumy Border region, Novopavlivsk, Huliaipole, and Orikhiv.

  • Russian Offensive Posture: Russian forces maintain a high operational tempo, characterized by extensive use of Guided Aerial Bombs (105 KABs reported used on April 9), massed artillery (nearly 5000 shelling incidents), FPV/Kamikaze drones (1068 used), and ground assaults. Russian sources claim strikes against 149 Ukrainian concentration areas and facilities allegedly involved in missile/UAV production. Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi previously assessed heightened Russian activity as indicative of offensive preparations towards Sumy and/or Kharkiv Oblasts.

  • Territorial Control & Claims:

    • Kursk/Sumy Border: Russian forces confirmed control of Huyevo (Kursk Oblast), with visual confirmation of destroyed Ukrainian M2 Bradley IFV and BTR nearby. Intense fighting continues near Oleshnia, Hornal (Kursk) and Loknya (Sumy). Russian forces reportedly reached the Gornal line, preparing further assaults. The status of Basivka (Sumy Oblast) remains contested (RU claimed capture Apr 6; UA Border Guard denied Apr 6, confirming combat).
    • Lyman Axis: Russian forces confirmed control of Katerynivka. DeepState confirms Russian advance near Katerynivka. Russian sources claim consolidation east of Nove and approach towards the settlement, advances near Torske (claiming entry into northern part), and advances near Katerynivka towards Mykhailivka. Some Ukrainian sources describe the situation as critical.
    • Toretsk Axis: DeepState confirms Russian advances near Druzhba, Kalynove, and Nadiivka (Apr 9). Russian sources claim significant advances near Ozarianivka (600m), towards Dyleyivka, south of Horlivka (700m), and a breakthrough into Kalynove.
    • Pokrovsk Axis: Ukrainian forces recovered previously lost positions near Kotlyne (DeepState confirmation). Russian sources claim advances into central Kalynove.
    • Novopavlivsk Axis / South Donetsk: DeepState confirms Russian advances near Rozlyv and Rozdolne (Apr 9). Russian sources previously claimed a breakthrough 1.2km deep / 2.2km wide near Dniproenerhiia–Otradne and advances towards Komar/Otradne and Bohatyr.
    • Chasiv Yar (Kramatorsk Axis): Russian forces previously confirmed advance near Zapadnyi microdistrict (DeepState, Apr 6). Russian sources claim control persists over the northern bank of the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas canal (Kanal microdistrict) with ongoing Ukrainian counter-attacks (Apr 8).

  • Ukrainian Defensive Operations: Ukrainian forces maintain active defense, repelling numerous assaults. UGS reported repelling 19 Russian attacks in the Kursk operational zone on April 9. President Zelenskyy confirmed Ukrainian operations in Belgorod Oblast are intended to disrupt Russian offensive preparations. The Military Cabinet focused on frontline stabilization, supply chain efficiency, and personnel staffing.

II. Air, Missile & Drone Threats (Ongoing as of 23:29 UTC)

  • Large-Scale Shahed Drone Attack (Ongoing):
    • Status: Air raid alert ended in Kyiv city (KMVA, 22:37 UTC). Alerts persist in other regions. Attack continues with multiple drone groups active.
    • Kyiv Region & City Impacts (Confirmed):
      • Holosiivskyi District: Fire reported at non-residential warehouse premises due to falling drone debris. Emergency services responded.
      • Darnytskyi District: Private residential building destroyed by falling debris. One civilian reported trapped under rubble. Emergency services engaged.
    • Drone Activity & Trajectories (as of 23:19 UTC): Approximately 8 drones reported active over Ukraine.
      • 3 drones moving from Vinnytsia Oblast into Khmelnytskyi Oblast.
      • 3 new drones detected north of Snihurivka (Mykolaiv Oblast), heading west.
      • 2 new drones detected near Tendra Spit (Black Sea), heading towards Ochakiv/Parutyne (Mykolaiv Oblast).
    • Russian Claims: Russian sources claim successful "Geran" (Shahed) impacts in Kyiv.
  • Tactical Aviation & KAB Threat:
    • Ongoing activity of Russian tactical aviation on the northeastern front poses a persistent threat of KAB strikes. UGS reported 62 Russian air strikes using 105 KABs across the front on April 9, with heavy concentration (46 strikes, 74 KABs) in the Kursk border zone. Huliaipole city was also targeted.
  • Russian Air Capabilities: Video evidence (Apr 9) confirms Russian attack aircraft employing S-8 unguided air-to-surface rockets using a loft-bombing (cabrirovanie) technique against Ukrainian ground positions. Visual evidence (Apr 9) confirms deployment of Tor-M2 air defense systems in forward, possibly concealed positions.
  • Alleged Ukrainian Strikes in Russia:
    • Reports of earlier possible explosions/UAV activity in Moscow/Kaluga Oblasts (Apr 9). Flight restrictions at Kaluga airport have been lifted (Rosaviatsiya, 23:07 UTC).
    • Video evidence suggests a Ukrainian AASM Hammer guided bomb strike on a facility near Bryansk (alleged Russian DRG/drone site).
    • Russian MoD claimed interception of 19 Ukrainian UAVs over multiple regions (Apr 9). Rybar (RU source) claimed 180 UA UAVs intercepted overnight (Apr 8-9) targeting Russian energy facilities.

III. Key Frontline Developments (Based on UGS 22:00 UTC Apr 9 & other recent sources)

  • Kursk/Sumy Border Axis (High Intensity):
    • UGS reports Ukrainian forces repelled 19 Russian attacks in the Kursk zone (Apr 9). Ukrainian drone units continue operations in Belgorod Oblast. UA 225th Assault Bde released video purportedly showing breaching Russian defensive lines near Demidovka (Belgorod Oblast).
    • Russian forces conducted 46 air strikes (74 KABs) and 351 artillery attacks (Apr 9). Russian control of Huyevo (Kursk) is confirmed; destroyed Ukrainian M2 Bradley and BTR observed nearby. Intense fighting persists near Oleshnia and Hornal (Kursk). Russian forces claim reaching the Gornal line and preparing further assaults. Fighting reported in Loknya (Sumy). RU MoD claims >230 Ukrainian losses in the area (Apr 9).
  • Kharkiv Axis: Ukrainian forces repelled 4 Russian attacks near Vovchansk, Hlyboke, Kamyanka, Fyholivka; 2 engagements were ongoing (UGS evening report). Situation assessed as complex but stable (UA Command, Apr 8).
  • Kupyansk Axis: Ukrainian forces repelled 2 Russian assaults near Zahryzove and Nova Kruhliakivka (UGS evening report). Russian sources previously claimed destruction of UA M113 and T-64BV (Apr 7).
  • Lyman Axis (High Intensity / Critical): UGS reported 21 Russian attacks (Apr 9), with 11 engagements ongoing at 22:00 UTC. Situation described as critical by some Ukrainian sources. Russian forces confirmed control of Katerynivka and advanced near Katerynivka (DeepState). Russian sources claim consolidation east of Nove and approaching the settlement, pushing near Katerynivka towards Mykhailivka, and advances near Torske/Novoliubivka. Russian source claims a Geran-2 strike on an alleged SBU/foreign instructor PVD near Serhiivka. Potential presence of Russian 11th Guards Air Assault Brigade (11я-ОДШБр) elements noted via visual media.
  • Siversk Axis: Ukrainian forces repelled 6 Russian assaults towards Bilohorivka, Hryhorivka, Verkhnokamyanske (UGS evening report).
  • Kramatorsk Axis (incl. Chasiv Yar): UGS reported 2 combat engagements near Chasiv Yar, with 1 ongoing (evening report). Russian forces previously confirmed advance near Zapadnyi microdistrict (DeepState, Apr 6). Voin DV (RU source) claimed FPV strike on alleged UA UAV control antennas in a civilian structure in Chasiv Yar area (Apr 9). Claimed Ukrainian GBU-62 JDAM-ER strike in occupied Soledar.
  • Toretsk Axis (High Intensity): UGS reported 15 Russian attacks (Apr 9), primarily targeting Toretsk, Druzhba, Dachne, Leonidivka, Shcherbynivka, with 1 engagement ongoing (evening report). DeepState confirms Russian advances near Druzhba, Kalynove, and Nadiivka (Apr 9 update). Russian sources claim significant advances near Ozarianivka, Dyleyivka, South of Horlivka, and breakthrough/entry into Kalynove.
  • Pokrovsk Axis (Highest Intensity): UGS reported 26 Russian attempts to break through defenses (Apr 9), with 3 engagements ongoing (evening report). Ukrainian forces recovered positions near Kotlyne (DeepState). Russian sources claim advance into central Kalynove. UGS reported significant Russian losses: 232 personnel (128 KIA, 104 WIA), 1 tank, 6 BMPs destroyed (Apr 9). UA "Ivan Franko Group" claimed drone destruction of RU truck carrying TOS rockets near Pesky-Selydove (Apr 8). UA 59th Bde claimed ambush destruction of RU assault group near Uspenivka (Apr 8).
  • Novopavlivsk Axis / South Donetsk Direction: UGS reported 3 Russian attacks near Kostiantynopil and towards Bahatyr; 2 were repelled (evening report). DeepState confirms Russian advances near Rozlyv and Rozdolne (Apr 9 update). Russian sources previously claimed a 1.2km deep / 2.2km wide breakthrough near Dniproenerhiia–Otradne and advance towards Bohatyr. UA Tactical Group "Vugledar" claimed repelling major RU assault near Bohdanivka (south of Vuhledar) with significant RU losses (Apr 8).
  • Huliaipole Axis: UGS reported 5 Russian attacks near Novosilka and towards Shevchenko (Apr 9). Huliaipole city attacked with KABs/NARs.
  • Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia): Ukrainian forces repelled 6 Russian assaults near Stepove, Mali Shcherbaky, Lobkove, Shcherbaky (UGS evening report). Delivery of new Russian drones (Rusak, Golub-T, Sekira 13, Vorobey) and EW systems (Shorokh, Gran) to Russian units reported. Confirmed Russian sniper activity in the area (Video evidence, Apr 9).
  • Prydniprovsky Axis (Left Bank): UGS reported no active Russian offensive actions (Apr 9). Ukrainian forces confirm successful strike on Russian 81st Artillery Regiment Command Post (occurred Apr 7).

IV. Capabilities, Logistics & International Support

  • Ukrainian:
    • Air Defense: President Zelenskyy reiterated the urgent requirement for at least 10 Patriot systems (or equivalent). The ongoing Shahed attack, causing damage in Kyiv from debris, underscores this critical need.
    • Western Aid: 150 Roshel Senator MRAPs confirmed delivered via US assistance since start of 2025 (40 more en route). EU pledges €9 billion in defense aid by end of 2025. Belgium committed €1 billion annual defense aid, F-16 delivery (2 parts 2025, 2 operational 2026), and signed joint production agreements. Ukraine received €1 Billion via EU/G7 ERA initiative (utilizing frozen Russian assets). New German coalition reaffirms support. Ramstein meeting (Apr 11) to focus on AD and joint production.
    • Capabilities: Active use of FPV drones, artillery. Demonstrated breach capability (225th Assault Bde). Confirmed use of AASM Hammer (Bryansk strike) and claimed use of GBU-62 JDAM-ER (Soledar). Plans for increased fiber-optic FPV production. 154th OMBr actively using modified FPVs to intercept RU recon UAVs (Kharkiv axis).
  • Russian:
    • Capabilities: Heavy reliance on KABs, artillery, FPV/Shahed drones. Confirmed use of S-8 unguided rockets from aircraft in loft-bombing tactic. Deployment of various new drones (Rusak, Golub-T, Sekira 13, Vorobey) and EW/support systems (Shorokh, Gran) reported on Zaporizhzhia front. Use of drone detectors (ASEM) reported (Pokrovsk). Claimed Geran-2 strike on alleged PVD near Serhiivka (Lyman axis). Increased focus on deploying ground robotic systems planned for 2025. Visual evidence confirms deployment of Tor-M2 AD systems, BMPs, personnel with MANPADS, and vehicles fitted with anti-drone cages in operational areas. Use of camouflage netting and concealment tactics observed. Potential presence of 11th Guards Air Assault Brigade elements noted. Confirmed sniper activity on Zaporizhzhia front.
    • Logistics/Challenges: Persistent issue of accidental bomb drops from aircraft (at least 50 since Jan 2025) attributed to UMPK guidance kit flaws. Fundraising for tactical EW backpacks and volunteer efforts for improvised vehicle armor indicate ongoing needs/vulnerabilities related to drone threats.

V. Reported Losses (Recent Claims & Confirmations)

  • Ukrainian Personnel: Lt. Col. Volodymyr Hlozhyk (Dep Cmdr, 808th Border Guard Bde) confirmed KIA Sep 28, 2024 (buried Apr 7, 2025).
  • Ukrainian Equipment/Personnel (RU Claims): Visually confirmed destroyed/damaged M2 Bradley IFV and Soviet-era BTR near Huyevo (Kursk). RU MoD claims >230 Ukrainian personnel neutralized in Kursk region (Apr 9).
  • Russian Personnel/Equipment (UA Claims/Reports):
    • Pokrovsk Axis: 232 Russian personnel neutralized (128 KIA, 104 WIA), 1 tank, 6 BMPs, other equipment destroyed (UGS, Apr 9). Record 10,027 Russian MIA requests reported in March 2025, largely linked to Pokrovsk/Bakhmut fronts. UA drone units claimed destruction of TOS rocket transport (Apr 8).
    • Kursk/Sumy Border: UA drone units imply significant RU losses. 141 MIA requests (March) for RU 810th Naval Inf Bde operating in Kursk.
    • Lyman Axis: UA 63rd Bde claimed 17 RU KIA via drones overnight (Apr 9). UA forces claimed shootdown of RU Merlin-VR recon UAV (Apr 8).
    • Kherson Left Bank: 20-30 RU KIA claimed from strike on 81st Arty Regt CP (Apr 7).
    • South Donetsk: Tactical Group "Vugledar" claimed destruction of 2 RU tanks, 2 IFVs, 8 vehicles (ATV/Motorcycle), ~50 personnel during repelled assault near Bohdanivka (Apr 8).
    • Bomber: C-in-C Syrskyi claimed UA drone destroyed a Russian Tu-22M3 bomber "several days ago" (Requires independent verification).

VI. Ukrainian Operations in Russian Territory

  • Border Engagements: UGS reports repelling 19 Russian attacks within the Kursk operational zone (Apr 9). UA 225th Assault Regiment video purportedly shows breach near Demidovka (Belgorod Oblast). UA drone units confirm ongoing strikes in Belgorod Oblast.
  • Deep Strikes: Suspected UA drone activity reported earlier in Kaluga, Moscow (Naro-Fominsk) Oblasts (Apr 9); flight restrictions at Kaluga airport were subsequently lifted (23:07 UTC). Confirmed AASM Hammer strike on alleged Russian DRG/drone facility near Bryansk. Rybar (RU source) claimed 180 UA UAVs intercepted overnight (Apr 8-9) targeting Russian energy infrastructure.

VII. Other Significant Developments

  • Foreign Nationals in Conflict: SBU released details of captured Chinese nationals recruited by Russia. President Zelenskyy confirmed two captured between Tarasivka and Bilohorivka (Donetsk Oblast), stating over 150 Chinese nationals may be involved with Russian forces. MFA instructed to contact Beijing.
  • Internal Security (Ukraine): SBU thwarted an alleged FSB IED plot (Khmelnytskyi). SBU/PGO disrupted a 9-person Russian agent network involved in arson against ZSU vehicles/railways. Lawyer and accomplices detained for alleged bribery related to demobilization (Vinnytsia, Apr 8). Updated policy clarified for servicemen returning after AWOL/Desertion.
  • Russian Internal Policy:
    • Ukrainian citizens in Russia (excluding newly occupied regions) must regularize their legal status (obtain permits or citizenship) by September 10, 2025, or face standard 90-day stay limits.
    • Proposed legislation in the State Duma aims to increase annual paid leave for "special operation" veterans to 35 days.
    • Expanding restrictions on migrant labor reported in Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug and Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, banning migrants from numerous sectors (education, healthcare, hospitality, agriculture, etc.).
  • Geopolitics: Focus remains on securing Western air defense systems (Patriot). Upcoming Ramstein (Apr 11) and "Coalition of the Resolute" (Apr 10) meetings are critical. Belgian support package finalized. Potential US absence from Ramstein noted. US troop repositioning within Poland (Jasionka hub) clarified as optimization, aid flow unaffected. Thailand expressed interest in Russian LNG imports. Ongoing US-China trade tensions highlighted by US Treasury official justifying tariffs.
  • Information Environment: Tucker Carlson interview claims US has "lost" the war in Ukraine. Russian sources continue posting photos/videos showcasing their forces and equipment (including sniper activity, Tor-M2, MANPADS, armored vehicles with anti-drone cages), likely for morale and propaganda purposes.
Previous (2025-04-09 23:00:53Z)

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