Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 9, 2025, 21:59 UTC
I. Overall Strategic Situation
Combat Intensity: High intensity persists, with 111 combat engagements reported since the start of the day. Operations remain focused on the Pokrovsk, Lyman, Toretsk, Kupyansk, Siversk, Kursk/Sumy Border, Novopavlivsk, Huliaipole, and Orikhiv axes.
Russian Offensive Methods: Continued heavy reliance on Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) (105 used), artillery (nearly 5000 shelling incidents), FPV/kamikaze drones (1068 used), and ground assaults. Russia claims engagement of 149 Ukrainian concentration areas and strikes against missile/UAV production facilities. Russian forces maintain a high operational tempo. Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi previously assessed increased Russian activity indicating offensive preparations towards Sumy/Kharkiv Oblasts.
Russian Claims (Verification Required):
Kursk/Sumy Border: Claim capture of Huyevo (Kursk Oblast), with visual confirmation of destroyed UA M2 Bradley IFV and BTR nearby. Forces reportedly reached the Gornal line preparing further assaults. Claim >230 UA losses in the region today. Fierce fighting reported near Oleshnia, Hornal (Kursk) and Loknya (Sumy).
Toretsk: Claim advances near Ozarianivka (600m), towards Dyleyivka, and South of Horlivka (700m). DeepState confirms RU advances near Kalynove and Nadiivka. RU sources claim breakthrough near Kalynove and entry into the settlement.
Lyman: Claim consolidation on eastern outskirts of Nove and advances near Katerynivka towards Mykhailivka. RU control of Katerynivka confirmed. DeepState confirms RU advance near Katerynivka. RU claims >2km advance near Torske and entry into northern Torske. Some UA sources describe the situation as critical. Rybar claims RU forces pushed UA from positions East of Nove and are approaching the settlement's outskirts. RU sources claim a successful Geran-2 (Shahed) strike on an alleged SBU/foreign instructor PVD near Serhiivka.
Pokrovsk: Claim advance into central Kalynove, reaching the second pond's dam, aiming for Sukha Balka junction. Acknowledge UA holds heights North of Kalynove.
Novopavlivsk/Andriivske: Claim 1.2km deep / 2.2km wide breakthrough near Dniproenerhiia–Otradne. Further claims of advance towards Komar/Otradne, threatening H15 road. Rybar reports RU units gradually advancing towards Bohatyr, with UAVs targeting UA equipment nearby.
Strikes: Claimed strikes on UA repair facility (Apostolovo), PVD (Kramatorsk), rear C2/reserves. Video evidence shows RU use of S-8 unguided rockets from aircraft in loft-bombing tactic against UA positions.
Ukrainian Posture: Maintaining active defense, repelling numerous assaults. UGS reports repelling 19 Russian attacks in the Kursk operational zone. UA forces recovered positions near Kotlyne (Pokrovsk axis) (DeepState). President Zelenskyy confirms operations in Belgorod Oblast aim to disrupt RU offensive preparations. Military Cabinet focused on stabilization, supplies, staffing.
II. Air, Missile & Drone Threats (Ongoing as of 21:59 UTC)
Large-Scale Shahed Drone Attack (Ongoing):
Air raid alerts active across multiple regions (Kyiv, Central, Northern, Western).
Kyiv Region & City:
Active Air Defense engagement ongoing. Multiple explosions reported earlier.
Impacts (Confirmed):
Holosiivskyi District: Fire reported in non-residential building / warehouse premises due to falling drone debris. Emergency services responding. Significant fire visible.
Darnytskyi District:Private building destroyed by falling debris. One person reported trapped. Emergency services responding.
Drone Activity: Approximately 15 drones reported active across Ukraine targeting multiple regions including Kyiv, Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Sumy, Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr Oblasts. Several drones reported near Kyiv and approaching Boryspil/Cherkassy. One drone reported circling near Korabelnyi district, Mykolaiv. Threat persists, possible further AD work.
Other Regions: Groups moving NW from Dnipropetrovsk towards Kirovohrad/Uman, Cherkasy/Vinnytsia, Poltava. Groups entered Sumy/Chernihiv moving SW towards Kyiv/Cherkasy. Groups moving from Vinnytsia into Zhytomyr Oblast. Groups active near Mykolaiv/Odesa border.
Russian tactical aviation activity persists on NE direction, posing ongoing threat.
Earlier Strikes (Apr 9):62 Russian air strikes using 105 KABs reported by UGS across the front. Kursk border zone saw heavy use (46 strikes, 74 KABs). Huliaipole city attacked.
Alleged Ukrainian Strikes in Russia (Recent/Ongoing):
Moscow/Kaluga Oblasts: Earlier reports of possible explosions/strikes, temporary flight restrictions at Vnukovo/Kaluga airports. Suspected UAV downing/AD activity reported Naro-Fominsk (Moscow Obl.).
Bryansk Oblast: Video released purporting to show UA AASM Hammer guided bomb strike on facility near Bryansk (alleged RU DRG/drone site).
Russian Interception Claims: RU MoD claims interception of 19 Ukrainian UAVs (Apr 9, 17:15-18:10 UTC) over Bryansk, Kaluga, Crimea, Kursk. Rybar claims 180 UA UAVs intercepted overnight targeting Russian energy facilities.
Russian Air Attack Capability: Video confirms use of S-8 unguided rockets from attack aircraft using loft-bombing (cabrirovanie) technique against UA ground positions.
III. Key Frontline Developments (Based on UGS 22:00 UTC & other sources)
Kursk/Sumy Border Axis (High Intensity):
Ukrainian Defense/Offense: UGS reports UA forces repelled 19 Russian attacks in the Kursk zone. UA drone units showcase strikes in Belgorod Oblast. UA 225th Assault Bde video purportedly shows breaching RU defensive lines near Demidovka (Belgorod Oblast). Successful ambush reported by UA Air Assault Forces (Kursk).
Russian Activity/Claims: RU forces conducted 46 air strikes (74 KABs) and 351 artillery attacks. RU sources confirm control of Huyevo (Kursk), show destroyed UA Bradley IFV and BTR nearby. Intense fighting ongoing near Oleshnia and Hornal (Kursk). RU forces reached Gornal line, preparing assaults. Fighting reported in Loknya (Sumy). RU MoD claims >230 UA losses in the area today.
Kharkiv Axis: UA forces repelled 4 RU attacks near Vovchansk, Hlyboke, Kamyanka, Fyholivka. 2 engagements ongoing. RU sources claim UA M109 SAU hit near Lyptsi.
Kupyansk Axis: UA forces repelled 2 RU assaults near Zahryzove and Nova Kruhliakivka.
Lyman Axis (High Intensity / Critical): UGS reports 21 RU attacks. 11 engagements ongoing. Situation described as critical by some UA sources. RU forces confirmed control of Katerynivka and advanced near Katerynivka (DeepState). RU sources claim consolidation East of Nove and approaching the settlement (Rybar), pushing near Katerynivka towards Mykhailivka. RU claim advances near Torske/Novoliubivka. RU source claims Geran-2 strike on alleged SBU/foreign instructor PVD near Serhiivka.
Siversk Axis: UA forces repelled 6 RU assaults towards Bilohorivka, Hryhorivka, Verkhnokamyanske.
Kramatorsk Axis (incl. Chasiv Yar): UGS reports 2 combat engagements near Chasiv Yar, 1 ongoing. RU forces previously confirmed advance near Zapadnyi microdistrict (DeepState). Claimed UA GBU-62 JDAM-ER strike in occupied Soledar.
Toretsk Axis (High Intensity): UGS reports 15 RU attacks, primarily targeting Toretsk, Druzhba, Dachne, Leonidivka, Shcherbynivka. 1 engagement ongoing. DeepState reports RU advances near Kalynove and Nadiivka. RU sources claim significant advances near Ozarianivka (600m), towards Dyleyivka, South of Horlivka (700m), and breakthrough/entry into Kalynove.
Pokrovsk Axis (Highest Intensity): UGS reports 26 RU attempts to break through defenses. 3 engagements ongoing. UA forces recovered positions near Kotlyne (DeepState). RU sources claim advance into central Kalynove. Significant RU losses reported by UGS: 232 personnel (128 KIA, 104 WIA), 1 tank, 6 BMPs, etc. destroyed.
Novopavlivsk Axis / Andriivske Direction: UGS reports 3 RU attacks near Kostiantynopil and towards Bahatyr. 2 attacks repelled. RU sources claim 1.2km deep / 2.2km wide breakthrough near Dniproenerhiia–Otradne. RU claims advance towards Komar/Otradne. Rybar reports RU forces advancing towards Bohatyr.
Huliaipole Axis: UGS reports 5 RU attacks near Novosilka and towards Shevchenko. Huliaipole city attacked with KABs/NARs.
Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia): UA forces repelled 6 RU assaults near Stepove, Mali Shcherbaky, Lobkove, Shcherbaky. Delivery of new RU drones and EW systems to RU units reported.
Prydniprovsky Axis (Left Bank): RU sources claim prevention of UA attempted Dnipro crossing near Antonivsky bridge. UGS reports no active RU offensive actions. UA confirms successful strike on RU 81st Arty Regt CP (Apr 7).
IV. Capabilities, Logistics & International Support</h2>
Ukrainian:
Air Defense Needs: President Zelenskyy emphasizes urgent need for at least 10 Patriot systems (or equivalent). Ongoing Shahed attack underscores this need, with confirmed damage in Kyiv from falling debris.
Aid:150 Roshel Senator MRAPs confirmed delivered via US assistance since start 2025 (40 more en route). EU pledges €9 billion defense aid by end 2025. New German coalition reaffirms support. Ukraine received €1 Billion via EU/G7 ERA initiative (frozen RU assets).
Capabilities Used: Active drone/artillery use. Demonstrated breaching capability (225th Bde). Use of AASM Hammer (Bryansk strike) and claimed GBU-62 JDAM-ER (Soledar) confirmed. Significant FPV use. Plans for increased fiber-optic FPV production.
Russian:
Capabilities Used: Heavy KAB/drone/artillery use. Confirmed use of S-8 NARs from aircraft (loft bombing). Delivery of various new drones (Rusak, Golub-T, Sekira 13, Vorobey) and EW/support systems (Shorokh, Gran) to Zaporizhzhia front. Drone recon used for targeting. Use of drone detectors (ASEM) reported (Pokrovsk). Claimed Geran-2 strike on alleged PVD near Serhiivka (Lyman axis).
Logistics/Adaptation: Fundraising for tactical EW backpacks indicates needs. Volunteer groups highlight need for improvised vehicle armor due to drone threats. Issue of accidental bomb drops (at least 50 since Jan 2025) attributed to UMPK kit flaws persists.
V. Reported Losses (Recent Claims & Confirmations)
Kursk Border (RU Claims): Visually confirmed destroyed/damaged M2 Bradley IFV and Soviet-era BTR near Huyevo. RU MoD claims >230 UA personnel neutralized in Kursk region (Apr 9).
Other Fronts (RU Claims): M109 SAU targeted near Lyptsi (Kharkiv). ~20 KIA claimed near Dniproenerhiia–Otradne (Novopavlivsk).
Russian Losses (UA Claims/Reports):
Pokrovsk Axis:232 RU personnel neutralized (128 KIA, 104 WIA), significant equipment losses detailed (UGS, Apr 9). Record 10,027 RU MIA requests reported in March 2025 (Pokrovsk/Bakhmut).
Kursk/Sumy Border: UA drone units imply significant RU losses. 141 MIA requests (March) for RU 810th Naval Inf Bde operating in Kursk.
Lyman Axis: UA 63rd Bde claims 17 RU KIA via drones overnight (Apr 9).
Kherson Left Bank: 20-30 RU KIA claimed from strike on 81st Arty Regt CP (Apr 7).
Bomber: C-in-C Syrskyi claims UA drone destroyed RU Tu-22M3 bomber "several days ago" (Verification Required).
VI. Ukrainian Operations in Russian Territory
Confirmed Border Breach: UA 225th Assault Regiment video purportedly shows breach near Demidovka (Belgorod Oblast).
Ongoing Activity: UGS reports repelling 19 Russian attacks within the Kursk operational zone today. UA drone units confirm ongoing strikes in Belgorod Oblast.
Deep Strikes: Possible UA drone activity reported in Kaluga, Moscow (Naro-Fominsk), Bryansk Oblasts. Confirmed AASM Hammer strike on alleged DRG/drone facility near Bryansk. Rybar (RU source) claims 180 UA UAVs intercepted overnight targeting Russian energy infrastructure.
VII. Other Significant Developments
Foreign Nationals (Chinese POWs): SBU released details of captured Chinese nationals recruited by Russia. Zelenskyy aware of >150 involved, intends discussion with Beijing.
Internal Security (Russia): Public display of alleged attacker's body reported in Chechnya; Kadyrov orders collective punishment against relatives. Decorated veteran Vitaliy Drozdov appointed VP at Rostelecom (special communications).
Geopolitics: Ramstein meeting focus on air defense. EU confirmed €9B defense aid. Germany reaffirms support. Serbia reaffirms stance against fighting Russia. Trump statements suggest potential US troop reduction in Europe, readiness to meet Putin/Xi, threats against Iran. Israel-Turkey de-escalation talks reported.
