Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 8, 2025, 12:10 UTC
(Analysis based on information received up to 12:10 UTC)
I. Overall Situation & Strategic Assessment
Combat Intensity: Remains high across multiple axes, with significant Russian pressure maintained, particularly towards Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Chasiv Yar, Lyman, and along the Kursk/Sumy border. The operational situation in the Kharkiv operational zone (OTU "Kharkiv") remains complex but assessed as stable by Ukrainian command.
Kursk/Sumy Border Situation:
Russian Territorial Control & Activity: Russian sources (MoD, TASS, Colonelcassad, Starshy Eddy, Dnevnik Desantnika) confirm the capture of Huyevo (Kursk Oblast), supported by visual evidence (flag raising by 22nd MRR, 72nd MSD). Russian MoD states forces have commenced "clearing operations" in Huyevo against residual Ukrainian elements, claiming discovery of ammunition stockpiles. Involved Russian units identified as elements of the 22nd Motor Rifle Regiment, 72nd Motor Rifle Division ("North" Group). Russian sources (TASS, Starshy Eddy) claim only Hornal and Oleshnia remain under Ukrainian control within Kursk Oblast, with fighting ongoing near these locations and reported Russian advances north and south of Hornal. RU MoD reports engaging elements of Ukrainian Mechanized, Tank, three Desantno-Shturmova Brigades (DShB), and a Territorial Defense Force (TDF) brigade near Hornal/Oleshnia. RU MoD also reports strikes on UA forces/equipment in Sumy Oblast settlements (Alexandria, Belovody, Varachino, Volodymyrivka, Vodolagy, Zhuravka, Loknya, Myropillya, Sadky, Yunakivka, Yablonivka). Russian political figure (Khinshtein) stated "final defeat" of UA forces in Kursk Oblast is becoming closer.
Ukrainian Counter-Actions & Presence: Ukrainian SSO previously confirmed repelling a Russian raid near Loknya (Kursk Oblast) on April 6, capturing a PoW. OTU "Kharkiv" highlights the involvement of Ukrainian personnel (e.g., soldier from the 22nd Mech Bde) in the Kursk operation.
Contested Areas/Grey Zone (Sumy): DeepState previously assessed the "grey zone" in Sumy Oblast is expanding, citing Russian attempts to penetrate and hold the border area between Zhuravka (Sumy Obl.) and the Sudzha checkpoint (Kursk Obl.). RU MoD claims liberation of Basovka (Sumy Oblast) (Apr 6). UA Border Guard previously denied RU capture of Basivka.
Claimed Losses (Kursk/Belgorod, RU MoD, Apr 8): Over the past 24 hours, RU MoD claims >290 Ukrainian personnel losses near Huyevo/Hornal/Oleshnia, plus 1 tank, 3 BTRs, 4 AFVs, 7 vehicles, 2 mortars, and 4 UAV control points destroyed. RU MoD claims >110 UA personnel losses on the Belgorod direction.
Potential Ceasefire Signals: Ukrainian National Security Committee Secretary Kostenko previously stated he does not rule out the possibility of a ceasefire in May 2025. Requires monitoring.
Russian Strike Activity: Continuous high volume of strikes using KABs/UMPKs, Geran/Gerbera drones, OTRK, and MLRS across frontline and rear oblasts persists.
Recent specific strikes reported/claimed (Apr 7-8): Huliaipole (Zaporizhzhia, UMPK); Babai (Kharkiv Obl., MLRS/OTRK); Pavlohrad outskirts (Dnipropetrovsk, Geran); Dnipro/Donbas border area (Geran); Vysokyi (Kharkiv Obl., alleged Iskander strike on foreign legion CP - Dnevnik Desantnika claim, 19 KIA). Toretsk Area (RU UAV strike on UA UAV CP, 3 KIA claimed - Voin DV).
Civilian casualties continue, including 1 WIA in Vovchansk (Apr 8). Casualty count from the Apr 4 Iskander-M cluster munition strike on Kryvyi Rih confirmed at 20 KIA, >90 WIA (Apr 6 status).
Ukrainian Strike Activity (Claims/Reports):
Energy Infrastructure: Russian MoD officially claims Ukraine conducted two attacks on Russian energy infrastructure on Apr 7 (Kursk NPP 750kV line damage near Metallurgicheskaya substation; Novohorivka 35kV substation damage in Zaporizhzhia Oblast). RU MoD frames these as violations of an alleged US-RU agreement (effective Mar 18 for 30 days) to cease energy strikes. ASTRA confirms the Kursk NPP line damage report.
Military Targets: UA 3rd Assault Brigade claims inflicting heavy losses (143 KIA, 86 WIA) repelling RU assault near Nadiia (Luhansk, Apr 7-8). UA 59th Bde ("Da Vinci Wolves") claims destruction of 6 RU tanks, 5 vehicles, and infantry in Donetsk Oblast (Apr 8). UA "Ivan Franko Group" claims destroying RU truck with TOS rockets via drone near Pesky-Selydove. UA 47th Artillery Brigade drone unit ("Sokoly Foksa") claims killing a wounded RU soldier via drone strike. UA Tactical Group "Vugledar" claims destruction of 2 RU IFVs, 4 ATVs, 4 motorcycles, ~50 personnel, and stopping 4 tanks near Bohdanivka (Donetsk). UA claim of destroying RU mortar this morning (Kursk/Sumy direction - Shef Hayabusa).
Foiled Assassination Plot: Ukrainian authorities previously reported thwarting an alleged FSB-directed plot to assassinate Kharkiv OVA Head Oleh Syniehubov and Derhachi MVA Head Vyacheslav Zadorenko.
Detained Informant (Kharkiv): SBU reports detention of alleged Russian informant (49-year-old publishing house employee) accused of providing coordinates (via Telegram/Google Maps) for RU KAB strikes targeting strategic objects (reserve CPs, energy infrastructure) in northern Kharkiv outskirts. Suspect faces charges under Art. 114-2 UCC (up to 8 years).
Drone Procurement Fraud: The Prosecutor General's Office reports dismantling an organized crime group (Kyiv, Ternopil, Lviv) that defrauded volunteers and military units of over 100 drones and 10.7 million UAH through fake sales contracts. Seized items include 53 DJI Mavic drones, 152 silver bars, significant cash (~$740k equivalent), vehicles, etc.
Propagandist Prosecution: SBU previously issued a new suspicion notice in absentia to Russian propagandist Olga Skabeeva.
Strategic Communication & Information Warfare:
RU: Emphasizes Huyevo liberation (MoD, TASS, Starshy Eddy) and unit involvement (22nd MRR/72nd MSD), including "clearing operations" and discovery of ammo caches. Highlights alleged high UA losses in Kursk/Belgorod. Promotes narrative of UA violating energy strike agreements. Frames UA GUR recruitment ad ("couriers") as seeking terrorists. Showcases RU drone effectiveness (Molniya-2 in Pokrovsk, strike on UAV CP near Toretsk). Amplifies legislative changes (foreign agents, absentia trials). Promotes crowdsourcing for vehicles. Highlights NATO activity in Baltic as potentially provocative. Mentions alleged US return to Bagram (Afghanistan).
UA: Highlights successful defense/counterattack near Nadiia (Luhansk) with high claimed RU losses (3rd Assault). Publicizes successful drone strikes (e.g., TOS rockets, individual soldiers, RU mortar). Showcases Tactical Group "Vugledar" success near Bohdanivka. Promotes volunteer recruitment expansion ("Contract 18-24," Berdyansk Border Guard unit). Publicizes indictment of alleged FSB agent (Kharkiv informant), drone fraud ring. Highlights civilian casualties from RU strikes (Vovchansk, Kryvyi Rih). Notes Kostenko statement on potential May ceasefire. Highlights UA-Lithuania cooperation. Showcases Russian national fighting for Ukraine (NGU "Khartia") appealing to countrymen. Publicizes US troop repositioning within Poland (Jasionka hub). Highlights new UA leadership program for women in digital transformation.
Diplomacy / Geopolitics:
Russia-Iran: Russian State Duma ratified the comprehensive strategic partnership treaty. RU MFA explicitly clarified the treaty does not mandate Russian military assistance if Iran is attacked. Treaty details include intel sharing, military cooperation (port calls, training, exercises, VTC), regional security cooperation, countering unilateral sanctions. Ratification timed before planned RU-IR-CN talks.
Ukraine-Lithuania: UA Chief of General Staff Hnatov met Lithuanian Chief of Defence Staff Baltrenas in Kyiv. Discussed frontline situation, military-technical cooperation including Lithuania's participation in 5 capability coalitions (Drones, AD/MD, Artillery, IT), continued UA troop training in Lithuania, and post-war security guarantees ("Coalition of the Willing"). Hnatov congratulated Baltrenas on selection as Director of NATO International Military Staff.
Ukraine-Estonia: Estonian MoD Pevkur met UA officials, offered Estonian defence industry capabilities to support Ukraine, confirmed continued support (ammunition, funding).
Ukraine-US (Natural Resources): Ukrainian Deputy Ministers of Economy and Justice scheduled to visit Washington Apr 11-12 for technical consultations with Trump administration representatives regarding potential agreement on natural resources (Bloomberg via RBC-Ukraina/Operatyvnyi ZSU).
US-Poland (Logistics Hub): US Army Europe & Africa Command announced repositioning of US personnel and equipment from the Jasionka (Poland) logistics hub used for Ukraine aid. Coordination to be handled by Poland/NATO with US support. Stated reason is optimization. (UA/RU sources citing US CENTCOM/USAREUR-AF).
Russia-US (Nuclear Arms): Peskov stated Russia finds it difficult to imagine starting negotiations on a new strategic arms reduction treaty, citing lack of mutual trust. Current treaty expires Feb 2026. (Sternenko).
NATO/Baltic Sea: RU source (Arkhangel Spetsnaza / Dva Majora) highlights accumulating NATO actions (Estonian proposed legislation on force vs vessels, Danish funding for naval assets/mines in straits, German radar plans) aimed at increasing control/restriction capabilities in the Baltic Sea, framing it as potentially provocative and aimed at blocking Russia.
Afghanistan: RU sources (Voenkor Kotenok) report claims of US return to Bagram airfield, citing C-17 visits and alleged CIA Director visit to Kabul. Assessed as likely exaggeration regarding base control, but CIA visit considered plausible.
II. Key Frontline Developments (Highlights & Updates)
Kursk/Sumy Border Zone (Intensity High):
Huyevo (Kursk Oblast, RU): Russian control confirmed by RU MoD/sources and visual evidence (flag raising by 22nd MRR, 72nd MSD). RU MoD claims "clearing operations" ongoing, discovery of UA ammo caches.
Hornal / Oleshnia (Kursk Oblast, RU): Fighting ongoing. RU sources claim these are last UA-held settlements in Kursk, report RU advances nearby. RU MoD reports engaging multiple UA brigade types (Mech, Tank, DShB, TDF) here.
Loknya (Kursk Oblast, RU): Ukrainian forces previously confirmed repelled RU raid Apr 6. RU MoD reports strikes in Loknya area (Sumy Obl. side).
Sumy Oblast Border: DeepState previously assessed "grey zone" expanding between Zhuravka (Sumy) and Sudzha KPP (Kursk). RU MoD reports strikes across multiple Sumy border settlements.
Claimed Losses (Kursk/Belgorod, RU MoD, Apr 8): High daily claims persist (>290 personnel losses + equipment in Kursk; >110 personnel losses in Belgorod direction).
Kharkiv Axis: Situation complex but controlled (OTU Kharkiv). Ongoing RU air/drone/arty attacks. 1 civilian WIA in Vovchansk (drone). RU claims Iskander strike on alleged foreign legion CP near Vysokyi (19 KIA claimed). SBU detains alleged spotter for RU KAB strikes in Kharkiv. Tactical signs of OTG "Kharkiv" not yet observed (RU source).
Kupyansk-Lyman Interface:
Nadiia Area (Luhansk Oblast): Ukrainian 3rd Assault Brigade maintains claim of repelling a major Russian assault (Apr 7-8), inflicting heavy losses (143 RU KIA, 86 WIA). RU forces reportedly failed to regain lost positions or take new ones. Requires verification, but significant UA claim, reiterated.
Tactical Signs: RU source notes M113 with OTG "Starobilsk" sign observed on Kupyansk direction.
Lyman Axis:
Katerynivka: Confirmed under Russian control. RU sources claim capture by 144th Guards Motor Rifle Division elements, supported by video (RVvoenkor).
Torske: Persistent RU claim of advance into Northern Torske.
DeepState Assessment (Apr 6): Previously noted worsening UA situation on Nove-Katerynivka-Nevske line.
Siversk Axis: Persistent RU claim of expanded control zone near Verkhnokamyanske.
Kramatorsk Axis (incl. Chasiv Yar):
Chasiv Yar: Fighting ongoing. RU source (Dnevnik Desantnika) claims control over northern shore of Dniprovsky pond (Kanal microdistrict) persists; reports UA counterattacking after losing stronghold on Chekhova St. and attempting reinforcement with armor from the south. RU sources noted previously (Apr 6) observed tactical signs of OTG "Luhansk" (3 upward arrows) in Chasiv Yar area. DeepState confirmed RU advance near Zapadnyi microdistrict (Apr 6).
Bohdanivka: UA Tactical Group "Vugledar" reported successful defense against RU attack involving tanks, IFVs, ATVs, motorcycles, claiming significant RU losses (~50 personnel, multiple vehicles destroyed).
Toretsk Axis: Intensity remains high. Persistent RU claim of advance near Ozaryanivka. RU forces (150th MSD UAV operators) claim destroying UA UAV control point and 3 personnel near Toretsk (Voin DV). RU sources noted previous RU advances near Druzhba, Novobakhmutivka, and fighting within Toretsk (Rybar, Apr 6).
Pokrovsk Axis (Highest Intensity):
Pesky-Selydove Road Area: UA "Ivan Franko Group" drone unit claims destruction of 8 RU vehicles, including a truck carrying TOS "Solntsepyok" thermobaric MLRS rockets (Apr 8).
Russian Drone Activity: RU MoD claims "Molniya-2" kamikaze drone eliminated UA materiel supporting RU assault detachments in this direction. Video released showing Molniya-2 operation.
Tactical Signs: RU source notes French VAB (155th Mech Bde) observed with specific tactical sign (square, 4 arrows).
Other Areas: Fighting persists near Shevchenko (contested), Lysivka (RU advance confirmed Apr 6 - DeepState). Previous RU strikes within Pokrovsk city noted.
Novopavlivsk / South Donetsk Axis:
Andriivka/Konstantynopil Area (RU Perspective - Rybar, Apr 6): RU forces claimed full control of Konstantynopil (by Mar 9) and Razliv (by Apr 1). Claim ongoing RU advances North of Volcha river towards Alekseevka and South towards Bohatyr. Predicts RU push towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border by summer. RU advance in Rozlyv confirmed by DeepState (Apr 6).
RU Activity: RU forces (T-80BVs, Vostok Group) reported providing fire support with UAV correction (Voin DV). Persistent RU claim of capturing UA stronghold North of Novyi Komar.
Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia): Persistent RU claims of advances towards Orikhiv, storming Stepove, and destroying UA equipment via FPVs. RU MoD alleges UA strike on Novohorivka substation Apr 7. Air raid alert ended approx. 11:53 UTC.
Prydniprovsky Axis (Left Bank): No significant changes reported. Ukrainian bridgehead near Krynky maintained.
III. Air, Missile & Drone Activity
Current Air Threats (As of 12:10 UTC):
Air Raid Alert: Ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (~11:53 UTC).
Reconnaissance UAV Threat: Previously detected enemy recon UAV over Black Sea approaching Odesa Oblast, south of Zaporizhzhia city, and heading towards Dnipro (~11:15-11:16 UTC). Status unclear.
Tactical Aviation Threat: Persists for southeastern/frontline oblasts.
Recent Russian Strikes (Summary): Ongoing extensive use of KABs, Geran/Gerbera drones, OTRK, MLRS. Specific strikes reported/claimed (Apr 7-8) near Huliaipole, Babai, Pavlohrad outskirts, Dnipro/Donbas border. Claimed Iskander strike near Vysokyi (Kharkiv). Claimed UAV strike near Toretsk on UAV CP.
Recent Ukrainian Strikes (Claims/Reports):
Energy Targets: RU MoD alleges 2 UA strikes on Apr 7: Kursk NPP 750kV line and Novohorivka 35kV substation (Zaporizhzhia). RU frames as violation of alleged agreement.
Military Targets: Heavy losses inflicted by 3rd Assault Bde (Nadiia). 59th Bde claims destroying 6 RU tanks, 5 vehicles (Donetsk). "Ivan Franko Group" claims destroying RU truck with TOS rockets (Pesky-Selydove). 47th Arty Bde drone unit claims killing wounded RU soldier. Tactical Group "Vugledar" claims significant RU losses near Bohdanivka. RU mortar claimed destroyed (Kursk/Sumy).
Drone Warfare:
RU Claims: Destroyed UA UAV CPs (Sparta Bn, MoD daily, Voin DV near Toretsk). Claimed Molniya-2 strike supporting ground forces (Pokrovsk). RU MoD claims 102 UA UAVs downed in 24h. RU artillerymen (Sever Group) thank supporters for Mavic 3T drones.
UA Claims/Activity: Successful strike on TOS rockets. Significant claimed kills by 3rd Assault Bde (Luhansk), 59th Bde (Donetsk), and Tactical Group "Vugledar" (Bohdanivka) using drones. Successful strike on individual RU soldier by 47th Arty Bde. Seizure of 53 DJI Mavic drones from fraud ring highlights procurement vulnerabilities and counter-action success.
IV. Naval Situation
No significant changes reported. Black Sea/Azov Sea remain clear of Russian warships. Kalibr missile carriers (3 ships, up to 26 missiles total) remain deployed in the Mediterranean Sea. Russia continues naval movements through Kerch Strait. RU source highlights NATO efforts (Estonia, Denmark, Germany) potentially aimed at increasing control/blocking capabilities in the Baltic Sea.
V. Other Developments
Personnel / Force Generation:
Ukrainian: Government expands "Contract 18–24" volunteer project to National Guard & Border Guard. Berdyansk Border Guard Detachment actively recruiting. NGU "Khartia" Brigade youth recruitment campaign. 425th Assault Regt ("SKALA DNIPRO" Bn) expanding. Meeting held with families of NGU Unit 3057 POWs/MIAs, highlighting concerns about conditions and lack of information. Online meeting scheduled (Apr 9) with chaplain on communication with veterans/families. Leadership program launched for women in digital transformation.
Russian: RU MoD establishing mobile medical commissions for WIA evaluation. Crowdfunding appeals for equipment (vehicles, EW backpacks) persist. Report alleges soldier (A. Vorobyov) with psychiatric condition held without official status/pay in unit 95395, denied medical board, potentially facing forced deployment to assault unit. Duma passed laws: exempting volunteers with >6 months combat from conscription; extending execution period for conscription decisions to one year.
Logistics & Capabilities:
Ukrainian: Focus on domestic drone production/procurement. Drone procurement fraud investigation highlights challenges (100+ drones, 10.7M UAH defrauded) and counter-measures (arrests, seizure of 53 drones, cash, silver). Estonia offers defence industry capabilities. US repositioning from Jasionka logistics hub, coordination transferred to Poland/NATO.
Russian: T-80BVs shown operating with UAV support (South Donetsk). Molniya-2 drone highlighted (Pokrovsk). RU MoD claims поражение UA rocket-artillery depots and concentrations in 149 areas. Crowdsourcing campaign for 35 vehicles (UAZ, Niva) ongoing, 28 claimed acquired.
Internal RU Politics/Legal: Laws passed allowing in absentia trials for crimes against state security (incl. "military fakes," "discrediting army"); expanding foreign agent status definition and banning them from educational/просветительской activities; increasing penalties for discrediting army/calling for sanctions for hire/profit. Law proposed to define specific internet crimes. Reports of fines for "discrediting army" (Kabardino-Balkaria). Law passed allowing college graduates entry to universities without ЕГЭ only for similar specialties.
International: Ukraine-Lithuania & Ukraine-Estonia military chiefs meet, discuss cooperation and support. UA officials to visit US for talks on natural resources deal. US repositioning forces within Poland. RU-Iran treaty ratified (no mandatory mutual aid clause). RU-US tensions over expiring nuclear treaty. RU highlights perceived NATO buildup in Baltic. RU sources claim possible US return to Bagram, Afghanistan. Shooting incident reported at college in Novy Urengoy, Yamal (no casualties reported). UK political scandals involving alleged pedophilia discussed in RU media. Belarus previously claimed interception of explosives from Poland destined for Russia. DPR anniversary celebrations previously noted.
