Nightwatch logo
'Nightwatch' text with white and gray letters
HomeMapNewsMilitary PulseSituation ReportsDaily ReportsList ViewVideosCyber Threats
Sign In
Contact Support
Historical Intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing

Report Time
2025-04-07 18:17:20Z
10 months ago
Previous (2025-04-07 17:47:23Z)

Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 7, 2025, 18:16 UTC

(Analysis based on information received up to 18:16 UTC)

I. Overall Situation & Strategic Assessments

  • Combat Intensity: As of 13:00 UTC, 77 combat engagements were reported by the Ukrainian General Staff (UGS). Activity remains highest on the Pokrovsk, Lyman, Toretsk, and Kursk/Sumy Border Axes. Russian forces continue offensive operations employing Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs), artillery, FPV drones, and ground assaults. Ukrainian forces maintain active defense posture. Subsequent reports confirm high intensity continues, particularly on Lyman, Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Kupyansk, and border axes.
  • Kryvyi Rih Attack Aftermath (UPDATED):
    • Casualties: Official figures updated to 20 Killed (including 9 children) and over 90 Wounded. 31 individuals remain hospitalized, with 7 in critical condition (4 children, 3 adults) (Vilkul, 16:35 UTC). Older reports cite 75 WIA. National Day of Mourning declared Apr 6; local mourning Apr 7-9.
    • Strike Nature Confirmed (FURTHER EVIDENCE): Released CCTV footage (UGS Spokesperson/RBC-Ukraina, 16:45 UTC; ASTRA/France24, 17:07 UTC) and civilian video (Tsaplienko, 17:01 UTC) confirm the Iskander-M strike impacted a civilian residential zone near a playground and restaurant ("RoseMarine"), contradicting Russian claims. Reports indicate a beauty industry forum was present (ASTRA, 17:07 UTC). Weapon confirmed as Iskander-M with cluster munition (Sternenko/US Amb. Brink, Apr 6).
    • Diplomatic Action: Ukraine is convening urgent UN Security Council and OSCE Permanent Council meetings for April 8th regarding the strike, intending to present evidence of cluster munition use (Tsaplienko, 16:15 UTC; RBC-Ukraine/Hetman, 15:16 UTC).
    • Retaliation: Ukrainian forces confirm conducting retaliatory strikes labeled "For Kryvyi Rih" (Operatyvnyi ZSU, 16:20 UTC; Pryvyd Khortytsi drone munition marking, 17:06 UTC; Shef Hayabusa drone message, 17:29 UTC; 71st Jaeger Bde, 63rd Mech Bde).
  • Russian Advance Tempo Assessment (Contrasting Views):
    • ISW Analysis (Apr 7 via ASTRA, 16:17 UTC & RBC-Ukraina): Reports Russian rate of advance has decreased monthly since November 2024 (Mar '25 gains significantly less than Nov '24). Attributes slowdown partially to successful localized Ukrainian counterattacks, specifically noted on the Pokrovsk and Toretsk axes. ISW estimates Russia occupies approximately 18.6% of Ukraine (including Crimea and pre-2022 Donbas territories). Despite the slowdown, ISW maintains Russia is preparing for a large-scale eastern offensive, potentially achieving 10:1 force ratios in specific sectors.
    • Russian Claims: Multiple Russian sources continue to claim ongoing tactical advances on several axes, including claims of 1.5-2km daily advance on Novopavlivsk direction (TASS/MoD RF, Apr 7; MoD Russia video, 18:12 UTC).
  • Russian Force Generation Assessment (UA Expert): Ukrainian military expert Oleksiy Hetman assesses Russia currently lacks the capacity to significantly increase overall force levels for new major offensives, primarily relying on relocating existing units. Suggests current recruitment (including prisoners, debt leverage, conscript coercion) may not sufficiently offset operational losses (RBC-Ukraina, 16:17 UTC; ASTRA, 15:47 UTC; Mobilizatsiya Novosti Srochniki, 16:12 UTC). NEW (ASTRA, 17:49 UTC): Russian MoD and Patriarch Kirill support bill granting veteran status to priests serving >= 4 months in combat zones, offering benefits, potentially incentivizing clergy presence for morale purposes.
  • Ukrainian Drone Strategy & Production (Zelenskyy Stavka Report - REINFORCED): President Zelenskyy reported on Stavka meeting outcomes, emphasizing maximal increase in domestic drone production across all types (Mavics to long-range, plus ground robotic systems). Goal is constant, stable growth in production/supply. Specific focus on fiber-optic controlled drones (>20 new certified models since Jan '25, 11 UA manufacturers). Positive dynamics reported for deep strike capabilities, with commitments to meet necessary volume for Defense Forces in 2025. Orders issued to maximize contracts (Zelenskiy/Official channels, 17:40 UTC; Operatyvnyi ZSU, 17:47 UTC).
  • Potential US Policy Shift (RU Source): Russian sources (The Telegraph via Voin DV, 18:02 UTC) report alleged potential Trump ultimatum to Kyiv: accept peace on Russian terms or lose US support. Requires independent verification; significant potential long-term strategic impact if true.
  • Regional Impact (Dnipropetrovsk): Sustained Russian artillery/drone attacks persist against Nikopol district communities. Four civilians wounded on Apr 7. Damage reported to infrastructure, businesses, residences, and a church (Lysak/Dnipropetrovsk ODA, 15:30 UTC; Vilkul, 16:35 UTC). Apr 6 airstrike on Novopavlivka injured 3.
  • Regional Impact (Bryansk Oblast, Russia - Civilian): Residents of border village Podyvotye report significant damage, lack of aid, and fear (Butusov Plus, 15:47 UTC). Russian admin warns civilians in Sievskyi district about drone dangers, confirms UA FPV drone killed 1 civilian in Lemeshovka (Apr 7), offers temporary relocation (Dva Mayora, 17:52 UTC). Previous UA source report confirmed RU claim of civilian death.
  • Ukrainian Force Structure: The First Separate Medical Battalion operational within UA Ground Forces, focusing on casualty evacuation (incl. UAVs), medical training, and first aid (Operatyvnyi ZSU, 16:49 UTC).
  • Potential Economic Pressure (Romania): Romanian presidential candidate Victor Ponta advocates halting Ukrainian grain transit via Romanian ports, citing protection of local farmers (RBC-Ukraina, 17:47 UTC). Potential impact on Ukrainian export logistics if implemented.

II. Air, Missile & Naval Activity

  • Missile Alert Status: Missile danger alert ENDED for Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts as of 15:56 UTC (UA Air Force). Threat of aviation weapon employment ongoing for frontline oblasts as of 18:16 UTC.
  • Russian KAB Activity: Remains a high threat. Ongoing launches reported towards Sumy, Donetsk, Kharkiv Oblasts (various sources). High volume reported on Apr 6 (104 KABs - UGS; 63 aviation strikes total). Specific Apr 6 strikes reported on Zolochiv (Kharkiv), Kupyansk (Kharkiv), Novopavlivka (Dnipropetrovsk), and multiple locations on Pokrovsk, Novopavlivsk, Huliaipole, Orikhiv, Kursk axes.
  • Naval Missile Threat Posture (UA Navy, Apr 7 AM): No Russian missile carriers in Black/Azov Seas. 3 carriers (26 Kalibr total) in Mediterranean.
  • Ukrainian Strikes on Russian Territory (NEW CLAIM):
    • Shaykovka Airfield (Kaluga Oblast): Satellite imagery analysis (CyberBoroshno, 17:11 UTC) claims successful UA strikes targeting Tu-22M3 bomber base. Claims include destruction/damage to missile maintenance buildings, disappearance of fuel stations, damage to Kh-22/32 missile storage. Assessment: Potential degradation of RU long-range strike infrastructure/stocks. (Verification Required)
    • Saransk (Mordovia - UPDATE): UA source (CyberBoroshno, Apr 5) maintained claim of hitting a second enterprise: the "Fiber Optics Engineering Center" (54.223313, 45.159403), producing critical components for FPVs, gyroscopes, radars, claiming critical damage. Initial confirmed strike was on "Optical Fiber Systems" plant. (Verification Required)
  • Ukrainian Counter-Air/Drone Activity:
    • Confirmation of Russian Buk-M3 SAM system destruction via drone strike in Luhansk Oblast (UA 412th Regt "Nemesis", 16:00 UTC).
    • GUR claimed the downing of 8 Russian reconnaissance UAVs (Apr 7).
    • Drone Hits (March 2025 - Syrskyi via RBC-Ukraina, 17:21 UTC): Over 77,000 Russian targets reportedly hit/destroyed by Ukrainian drones in March 2025 (10% increase from Feb).
    • Overnight Interceptions (Apr 5-6): 53/132 targets intercepted (incl. 6/9 Kh-101, 6/8 Kalibr, 1/6 Iskander-M, 40/109 Shahed/Decoy). Significant failure noted intercepting 5/6 Iskander-M targeting Kyiv Oblast.
  • Kerch Strait Bridge: Remains a declared strategic target for Ukrainian forces, acknowledged as difficult (UA Navy Commander Neiizhpapa / RBC-Ukraina, 16:32 UTC).

III. Key Frontline Developments (Based on UGS 13:00 UTC Report & Subsequent Claims/Reports up to 18:16 UTC)

  • Pokrovsk Axis (Highest Intensity - UPDATED): 30 RU attempts reported by UGS (13:00 UTC), 25 repelled. High intensity continued (65 attempts Apr 5, 42 attempts Apr 6).
    • RU Claim (Shevchenko - UPDATED): RU forces advanced 500 meters in residential area of Shevchenko, claiming control of the western part (Slivochniy Kapriz, 17:25 UTC, geolocated 48.226315 37.153291). Older reports (Apr 7 AM) claimed reaching outskirts.
    • RU Claim (Lysivka - UPDATED): Positional fighting reported. RU positions in northern Lysivka under Ukrainian fire (Slivochniy Kapriz, 17:39 UTC, geolocated 48.22548, 37.24782 & 48.22615, 37.25692). Earlier reports (RVvoenkor/DeepState) claimed RU control of S/E parts, fighting in N part.
    • RU Advance Confirmed (ISW, Apr 6): Near Udachne and N of Andriivka.
    • UA Counterattacks: Successful localized UA counterattacks previously noted by ISW (Apr 7) contributing to slower overall RU advance rate on this axis. UA 35th Marines stopped RU BMP disembark attempt (Apr 6).
  • Lyman Axis (High Intensity - UPDATED): 13 RU attacks reported by UGS (13:00 UTC), 6 ongoing. High intensity reported Apr 6 (20 attacks) & Apr 5 (20 attacks).
    • RU Claim (Katerynivka - NEW CLAIM): RU Group "West" forces claim liberation of Katerynivka. Predict further advance towards Novomykhailivka may create pocket, potentially linking Makiivka and Ivanivka bridgeheads (Voenkor Kotenok, 17:20 UTC).
    • RU Claim (Other Areas - UPDATED): Assault units continue fighting for Nove (SW of Katerynivka). Fierce fighting for Kolodezi (~11km from Krasny Lyman). Attacks from Yampolivka towards northern edge of Torske (Voenkor Kotenok, 17:20 UTC). NEW CLAIM: Advance South from Yampolivka towards Torske reported (Dnevnik Desantnika, 18:06 UTC). Previous RU claims (Apr 6) of significant advances W of Balka Zhuravka/Novoliubovka (>3.5km wide, 2km deep). DeepState assessment cited deteriorating UA situation on Nove-Katerynivka-Nevske line. RU Map (Z Komitet, Apr 5) claimed advances near Novoliubivka/Nove. RU 200th GMRB active (fiber-optic FPVs claimed).
    • Ukrainian Advance Confirmed (ISW, Apr 6): Near Borova (Kharkiv Oblast, W of Svatove).
  • Toretsk / Konstantynivka Axis (High Intensity - UPDATED):
    • UGS Report (13:00 UTC): 8 RU attacks, 1 ongoing. High intensity Apr 6 (17 attacks), Apr 5 (18 attacks).
    • Russian Claims (UPDATED): Claim ongoing offensive success: expanded control 1km West of Panteleimonivka, consolidating positions (Colonelcassad/don_partizan, 16:28 UTC; Dnevnik Desantnika, 17:31 UTC). Tactical success claimed on Western outskirts of Toretsk (Colonelcassad, 16:28 UTC). Attempting to straighten front line Panteleimonivka-Zelene Pole (Colonelcassad, 16:28 UTC). Pushing from Druzhba and Dachne towards Dyleyivka (Dnevnik Desantnika, 17:31 UTC). Assess UA facing reserve/armor issues.
    • RU Advance Confirmed (ISW, Apr 6): Advance on Enhelsa Street in northern Toretsk city. RU claims advances near Druzhba, Novobakhmutivka (Apr 6). Oleksandropil confirmed RU captured (Apr 3).
    • Ukrainian Actions (NEW): UA KORD special police units confirmed operating in Toretsk, engaged in urban combat, drone/mortar strikes (Operativnyi ZSU video, 18:09 UTC).
    • ISW Assessment Context: Previous ISW report (Apr 7) noted localized UA counterattacks slowing overall RU advance on this axis.
  • Kursk/Sumy/Belgorod/Bryansk Border Region (UPDATED):
    • Intensity: High. UGS reported 6 RU attacks repelled, 3 ongoing in Kursk Oblast (13:00 UTC). High RU shelling/airstrikes. Previous days saw very high clash counts (29 on Apr 6, 17 on Apr 5).
    • Territorial Claims (UPDATED):
      • Basivka (Sumy): Ukrainian forces maintain full control, refuting RU claims of liberation (UA State Border Guard Service Spokesperson Demchenko via RBC-Ukraina, 17:58 UTC). RU MoD/Rybar previously claimed liberation (Apr 6). ISW confirmed RU advances here (Apr 6).
      • Huyevo (Kursk): RU claim completing destruction/clearing of UA forces, allegedly acknowledged by UA analysts (RVvoenkor, 16:46 UTC). RU flag previously raised. ISW confirmed RU advances here (Apr 6). UA MiG-29 strikes (AASM Hammer) confirmed near Huyevo (Tsaplienko, 15:27 UTC).
      • Demidovka/Popovka (Belgorod border): RU claim clearing Demidovka/Popovka; UA forces hold positions in woods between villages under heavy RU fire (Colonelcassad, 17:31 UTC). RU previously claimed clearing Demidovka (Apr 6). RU video claims UA KIA near Demidovka (RVvoenkor, 16:14 UTC). RU claimed fiber-optic FPV destroyed UA M2 Bradley near Demidovka (Apr 5).
      • Malaya Loknya (Kursk): RU source reports aftermath/drone ops showcasing heavy destruction following UA incursions (WarGonzo, 17:12 UTC; Readovka video via WarGonzo, 18:04 UTC). Mentions RU drone unit "Irish".
    • Russian Intent/Morale (RU Source - WarGonzo, 16:16 UTC): Reports "bold/audacious" mood among RU troops after Sudzha operations; claims intent to advance further into Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts. Poll on RU channel (Kotsnews, 17:25 UTC) shows 30% believe RU is creating a "sanitary zone".
    • Russian Claims (Abrams Tank): Strong reiteration from multiple RU sources (MoD, Poddubny, Kotsnews, 16:08 MoD Video; Colonelcassad/Rusich_Army, 17:31 UTC) of destroying a UA M1 Abrams (hit mine, finished by FPV) and a supporting BREM ARV near Turya, Sumy Oblast (Geolocated 50.881531, 35.361891). Claim tank used as "roving gun" against Prilesye (RU).
    • UA Morale/Logistics (RU Claim): Radio intercepts allegedly reveal UA troops complaining of lack of rotation and supplies in Belgorod border area. Claim RU arty struck UA foot patrol attempt overnight (Colonelcassad/Rusich_Army, 17:31 UTC).
    • Civilian Impact (Bryansk - UPDATED): RU confirms UA FPV drone killed 1 civilian in Lemeshovka (Apr 7) (Dva Mayora, 17:52 UTC). UA source reports civilian distress/damage/lack of aid in Podyvotye (Apr 7). RU admin offers temporary relocation for border residents.
    • RU Needs: Appeal from RU soldiers on Kharkiv border for EW, drone detectors, medkits due to heavy fighting/drone threat (Alex Parker Returns, 16:05 UTC).
    • RU War Crimes Allegations/Legal Actions: RU claims identification of additional UA commanders responsible for alleged war crimes (Kursk); conviction of 79 UA personnel/mercenaries for Kursk incursion (TASS, Apr 7 AM). Likely propaganda/legal justification.
  • Kupyansk Axis (UPDATED):
    • UGS Report (13:00 UTC): 1 RU assault repelled near Zahryzove. Relatively lower intensity compared to Apr 6 (6 attempts), Apr 5 (6 attacks).
    • Russian Claims (Dnevnik Desantnika, 17:02 UTC): Advanced 300m East of Petropavlivka, consolidating positions. Intensive RU artillery, air, and drone activity reported. Heavy fighting near Pervomaiske (RU attacking towards Shiikivka). RU identifying UA positions via arty/drones near Kolesnykivka. Heavy fighting towards Kondrashivka and near Mala Shapkivka.
    • RU Advance Confirmed (ISW, Apr 6): Advance in Kamyanka. Fighting near Synkivka, Kyslivka, Vyshneve, Zahryzove.
    • UA Tactical Success Claim: UA 92nd Bde ("Achilles") & "Bureviy" Bde claim repelling 2 RU breach attempts, destroying 2 RU tanks, damaging 2 BMPs (Tsaplienko, 15:53 UTC).
    • UA Counterattacks (RU Claim - UPDATED): RU Group "West" claims repelling UA counterattacks (incl. GUR units) for 3 days. Claim destruction of UA pickup with ammo, armor, BTRs, and assault groups with significant UA losses (RVvoenkor, 17:37 UTC). RU claimed destruction of UA M113, T-64BV (Apr 7 AM).
  • Kharkiv Axis (UPDATED):
    • UGS Report (13:00 UTC): No RU offensive actions reported. Missile alert ended 15:56 UTC. Low intensity reported Apr 6 (2 attacks repelled), Apr 5 (1 attack repelled).
    • Russian Assessment (Rybar, 15:50 UTC): Describes Vovchansk as ruins/"grey zone". Claims RU holds N bank Volcha river, attacking NE towards river edge. Fighting ongoing in Tykhe. Claims RU established ~7km deep "buffer zone" near Hlyboke/Starytsia. Expects potential UA action towards Shebekino (Belgorod).
    • UA Actions (Vovchansk - NEW): UA Border Guard "Skorpion" unit (part of "Hart" Brigade) reported drone and mortar strikes near Vovchansk, neutralizing 9 RU personnel and destroying an EW antenna (OTU Kharkiv, 17:43 UTC).
    • RU Frontline Needs: Appeal for EW, drones, medkits from RU troops on this border indicates heavy fighting and drone threat (Alex Parker Returns, 16:05 UTC).
  • Kramatorsk Axis (Chasiv Yar / Siversk):
    • UGS Report (13:00 UTC): 1 ongoing RU attempt near Kurdyumivka; 2 attacks near Chasiv Yar stopped. Low intensity Apr 6 (3 attacks), Apr 5 (3 attacks).
    • RU Advance Confirmed (DeepState, Apr 6): Enemy advanced near Zapadnyi (Western) microdistrict of Chasiv Yar. RU claim clearing this district (Colonelcassad, Apr 6).
    • Russian Claims (Chasiv Yar - Colonelcassad, 16:28 UTC): Claim continued positional battles with high intensity, but no significant tactical advances for either side. Both sides reinforcing positions.
    • Russian Claims (Siversk - Slivochniy Kapriz, 15:59 UTC): Claim expanded zone of control 1.5 km North of Verkhnokamyanske towards Siversk. UGS reported 2 RU assaults repelled near Bilohorivka (Apr 6), 3 near Bilohorivka/Verkhnokamyanske (Apr 5).
  • Novopavlivsk / South Donetsk Axis (Kurakhove / Shakhtarsk Directions - UPDATED):
    • UGS Report (13:00 UTC): 5 RU attacks repelled, 1 ongoing near Rozlyv, Kostiantynopil. Intensity decreased from Apr 5 (7 attacks), Apr 6 (4 attacks).
    • Fighting Intensity (Kurakhove): Heavy fighting confirmed near Kurakhove (Heorhiivka, Maksymilianivka, Hostre), involving UA 46th Airmobile Brigade (DeepState/46th Bde video release, 16:30 UTC). High density UA FPV drone use reported (Operativnyi ZSU, Apr 5).
    • UA Tactical Success Claims (Drone Emphasis): UA "Hostri Kartuzy" drone unit claimed destruction of RU assault group (14:04 UTC). UA "Zliuky Bobry" drone unit reports continuous destruction of RU forces on Kurakhove direction (STERNENKO, 16:23 UTC). UA 38th Marine Bde claimed destruction of RU BMP with drones (Butusov Plus, 16:31 UTC). UA "Pryvyd Khortytsi" drone unit demonstrated FPV strikes against RU infantry, including marked munition "For Kryvyi Rih" (Pryvyd Khortytsi, 17:06 UTC).
    • Russian Claims (UPDATED): RU MoD ("Vostok" Group) claims continued advance. NEW (MoD Video, 18:12 UTC): T-80BV tanks providing fire support, using UAVs for spotting; claim 1.5-2km daily advance rate (Tank Bn Cmdr 'Altai'). Tanks employ anti-drone cages. Specific territorial claims (Apr 7, 15:42 UTC) included advances near Preobrazhenka, Sribne, Nadezhdinka, Rozlyv, Konstantynopil, Burlatske, capture of UA strongpoints near Komar. Claim drone strikes by 36th MRB, 656th & 430th MR Regts (29th CAA) liquidated UA personnel on Shakhtarsk direction (Voin DV, 16:30 UTC). RU advances confirmed near Kurakhove, Rozlyv (ISW/DeepState, Apr 6).
    • Drone Donations: Acknowledged by RU troops (Buryatia unit) on this axis (Colonelcassad, 17:03 UTC).
  • Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia):
    • UGS Report (13:00 UTC): 3 RU assaults stopped near Mali Shcherbaky. Intensity consistent with previous days (4 attacks Apr 6, 4 attacks Apr 5).
    • Russian Claims: Positional fighting near Kamyanske. Claim advance within Stepove settlement (N of Kamyanske), securing positions in northern part under UA fire (Slivochniy Kapriz, 15:38 UTC). Previous claims of UA GUR personnel transfer (~1500) to direction, potential offensive prep (Rybar, 14:33 UTC). RU advances confirmed near Mali Shcherbaky, Nesteryanka, Mala Tokmachka (ISW, Apr 6). Lobkove confirmed RU captured (Apr 3).
  • Prydniprovsky Axis (Kherson - Left Bank - UPDATED):
    • UGS Report (13:00 UTC): 1 RU assault repelled. Intensity remains low (1 attempt Apr 6, 2 attempts Apr 5).
    • RU Claim (NEW): RU MoD claims paratroopers used 152mm Msta-B howitzers to destroy an AFU temporary deployment area in Kherson region (MoD Russia, 17:44 UTC). Previous claims (Apr
Previous (2025-04-07 17:47:23Z)

We only use optional analytics cookies if you allow them. Necessary cookies stay on for sign-in and site security.

Learn more in our Privacy Policy.