Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 7, 2025, 13:15 UTC
(Analysis based on information received up to 13:15 UTC)
I. Overall Strategic Situation
Combat intensity remains HIGH, particularly on the eastern front, with the Pokrovsk Axis experiencing extremely heavy fighting and significant Russian claims of localized advances.
Russian forces continue offensive pressure, heavily relying on Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs), drone swarms, and artillery, supported by ground assaults. Active KAB launches are ongoing towards Sumy and eastern Kharkiv Oblasts.
Ukrainian forces report successful defensive actions, notably repelling mechanized assaults on the Kupyansk Axis. Counter-intelligence operations continue to identify and neutralize collaborators and saboteurs.
Russian military leadership emphasizes adapting training based on combat experience, focusing on drone warfare, urban combat, and counter-UAV measures.
International attention remains focused on recent Russian strikes against civilian infrastructure, particularly the April 4 Kryvyi Rih attack, with an emergency OSCE session scheduled.
II. Air, Missile & Drone Activity
Russian Air Activity:
Ongoing KAB Launches (12:21 UTC - 12:49 UTC): Ukrainian Air Force reports active launches by Russian tactical aviation towards Sumy Oblast and eastern Kharkiv Oblast. Threat persists for frontline regions.
Intense Operations Reported (RU source): Russian sources describe air activity as "intense," with strike groups rotating and KABs used "non-stop."
Su-25 Strike Claim (Kursk Border - RU MoD): Russian MoD released footage allegedly showing Su-25 ground attack aircraft striking a Ukrainian temporary deployment point in the Kursk border region.
High Volume (Previous Reports): Continued significant use of KABs (e.g., 193 on Apr 3-4, 126 on Apr 4), kamikaze drones (e.g., 2203 on Apr 3-4, 966 on Apr 4), and shelling reported in recent days.
Ukrainian Air/Counter-UAV Activity:
Claimed Strike in Russia (Kursk Obl. - UA Source): Ukrainian sources (CyberBoroshno) claim a MiG-29 strike destroyed a Russian HQ in Tyotkino, Kursk Oblast, providing geocoordinates (51.2780635,34.2844297). Verification pending.
Recon UAV Shootdown (Kherson Obl.): Confirmed shootdown of a Russian Supercam reconnaissance UAV over Chornobaivka airfield (46.7007721, 32.5147262) by Ukrainian 11th National Guard Brigade ("Samosud" crew).
Heavy Drone Shootdown Claim (Shakhtarsk Axis - RU Source): Russian sources claim the downing of a Ukrainian heavy ("Baba Yaga") drone by the 30th Spetsnaz company (Group "Vostok").
Fiber-Optic Drones: Russian sources note intensified use of Ukrainian UAVs employing fiber-optic connections on the Pokrovsk axis.
Intelligence Limitations:
Cloud cover reported hindering satellite reconnaissance analysis in most regions affected by recent strikes (UA Source - CyberBoroshno).
III. Key Frontline Developments
Pokrovsk Axis (Extremely High Intensity - RU Claims Dominate Reporting):
Solone: Claimed capture and clearing of areas west by RU 15th Brigade.
Uspenivka: Claimed capture and ongoing clearing (Claim reiterated by RU MoD Apr 5).
Kotlyne: Claimed RU forces entered the village, controlling approximately 50%.
Lysivka: Claimed RU forces secured eastern 1/3; center contested ("grey zone"); west held by UA.
Volkovo Area: Claimed UA counterattacks (supported by drones) near опорник (strongpoint) north of Volkovo were repelled.
Dachenske Area: Situation described as unstable, with ongoing UA counterattacks and force accumulation observed to the north.
Combat Footage (RU Source - "Otvazhnye"): Russian sources released compilation videos allegedly showing strikes against Ukrainian equipment (including claimed "NATO" armor), positions, and personnel on this axis during April 6th.
Previous High Intensity (Apr 4-5): UGS reported very high numbers of Russian attacks (e.g., 27 on Apr 4). RU MoD made high casualty claims against UA forces (Apr 5). Russian propaganda efforts noted, targeting UA morale.
Kupyansk Axis:
Confirmed Repelled Assaults (Kyslivka Area - Apr 6): Ukrainian sources (OTU "Kharkiv", DeepState) confirm joint forces (429th Drone Regt "Achilles", 1st Op Bde "Bureviy", 43rd Mech Bde) repelled two distinct Russian assaults west of Kyslivka on April 6th. Attacks involved infantry supported by 2x tanks and 2x BMPs total.
Claimed Russian Losses (UA Sources): Ukrainian forces claim destruction of 2 Russian tanks and damage/destruction of 2 Russian BMPs, with 4 Russian personnel KIA and 3 WIA. Video evidence shared.
Counter-UAV Claim (RU): Russian sources claim shootdown of a Ukrainian heavy drone (see Section II).
Ongoing RU UAV Operations: Russian sources report continued UAV operations targeting Ukrainian personnel and equipment.
Kherson Axis:
UAV Interception (UA): Confirmed shootdown of Russian Supercam UAV over Chornobaivka airfield.
Claimed Strike on Crossing Prep (RU): Russian VDV artillery (152mm Msta-B, Group "Dnipro") allegedly struck and eliminated Ukrainian forces preparing for a Dnipro crossing attempt based on aerial reconnaissance (RU Source - Poddubny).
Kursk Border / Sumy Oblast:
RU Air Activity: KAB launches towards Sumy Oblast. Claimed Su-25 strike on UA position within Kursk border region (RU MoD).
UA Air Activity Claim: Claimed MiG-29 strike on RU HQ in Tyotkino, Kursk Oblast (UA Source).
UA Operations: Ukrainian forces continue operations assessed to tie down significant Russian forces (previously estimated at 64,000 by President Zelenskyy).
Information Warfare: Russian propaganda continues regarding alleged treatment of POWs and narratives surrounding fighting in Kursk Oblast. Ukrainian sources discredit specific RU hero narratives (e.g., "Bulldozer").
Donetsk Oblast (Other):
RU MoD Claim: Liberation of Katerynivka (DPR) claimed by "West" Group forces.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast:
RU Claim: Russian sources allege Ukrainian forces shelled a hospital with heavy patients in Kamianka-Dniprovska. Damage reported, no casualties claimed.
Lyman, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk, Orikhiv, Kramatorsk Axes: No major new ground combat updates identified in the latest reporting cycle. Previous reports (Apr 4-5) indicated high intensity, particularly Lyman & Toretsk, with specific Russian advances confirmed/claimed (e.g., Toretsk city, Oleksandropil, Vesele, Rozliv, Lobkove, Mali Shcherbaky). Russian sources (Apr 4) acknowledged Novomarkove & Orikhovo-Vasylivka (Kramatorsk axis) remained contested.
IV. Russian Force Developments & Internal Security
Training Adaptation (High Priority):
Deputy Minister of Defence Yevkurov inspected training facilities (Southern Military District), emphasizing incorporation of combat experience.
Focus areas include: Assault tactics, Counter-UAV measures, use of reconnaissance/strike drones, employment of robotic systems (e.g., medevac), urban warfare, tactical medicine, sniper training.
Claimed expansion of training infrastructure (>80 training stations per polygon) staffed by experienced instructors.
Logistics:
Reports persist of Russian units receiving essential equipment (e.g., motorcycles, parts) via crowdfunding and donations from occupied territories (Crimea), potentially indicating continued reliance on non-standard supply channels.
Internal Laws/Policy:
New law provides unpaid leave (35 days/year) for close relatives to care for wounded servicemen.
New law prohibits forced add-on services like insurance.
New law prohibits advertising on websites of designated "extremist" or "undesirable" organizations (effective Sep 1).
Personnel Issues:
Reports of individuals accused of violent crimes (e.g., Rashid Aliev case) being released from detention to fight in Ukraine.
V. Ukrainian Operations, Capabilities & Internal Security
Counter-Intelligence & Counter-Sabotage:
Detention of Minors: SBU detained 7 minors (ages 12-16) in Smila (Cherkasy Obl.) and Chernihiv, allegedly recruited by Russia via Telegram to conduct sabotage, including arson of Ukrzaliznytsia (Ukrainian Railways) relay boxes and potentially preparing IEDs.
Conviction of Informant: Mykolaiv resident sentenced to 12 years imprisonment for providing Russia (via Telegram, Jan 2024) with intelligence on Ukrainian military boat locations/movements in Mykolaiv port, other unit/equipment positions (with coordinates), and strike aftermath data.
Targeting & Defensive Successes:
Claimed Strike (Kursk): Alleged successful MiG-29 strike on Russian HQ in Tyotkino.
UAV Interception (Kherson): Confirmed shootdown of Russian Supercam recon UAV.
Repelled Assaults (Kupyansk): Confirmed successful defense against two mechanized assaults west of Kyslivka (Apr 6).
(Previous): Destruction of RU Tirada-2 EW and Strela-10 SAM systems.
Information Operations & Communications:
Loss Calculations: OSUV "Khortytsia" released calculations claiming high Russian costs per square kilometer of captured territory in their zone (Q1 2025 Avg: 146 soldiers, 1 tank, 2 BBMs, 4.5 artillery/sq km).
Counter-Disinformation: Actively refuting Russian claims regarding the Kryvyi Rih strike target (citing France24 footage). Discrediting specific Russian propaganda narratives.
Military Communications Development: Head of Comms (Col. Senyk) engaged with Lviv University journalism faculty/students on IHL, media accreditation, social media presence, and countering disinformation.
POW/MIA Support:
Coordination Headquarters held a meeting with families of POWs/MIA from the 5th Separate Assault Brigade, discussing confirmation processes, information gathering, investigations, and liberation efforts for specific categories (wounded, prosecuted by Russia).
Training:
Unit-level training continues (e.g., 22nd Mech Bde instructors practicing building assault/clearing).
(Previous): Strategic emphasis on extending basic training duration, adding brigade adaptation courses, improving instructor quality/motivation.
VI. Geopolitical & Technological Context
US Missile Development: Russian sources highlight November 2024 US tests of the Leidos "Black Arrow" Small Cruise Missile (SCM) launched from a C-130 cargo ramp (~100kg mass, >300km range). Russian analysis emphasizes potential to convert transport aircraft into missile carriers, expressing concern over Russia's lack of comparable capability and aging transport fleet.
International Response to Attacks:OSCE to hold an emergency special session on April 8 to discuss the Russian strike on Kryvyi Rih and the broader escalation of attacks against civilians in Ukraine.
NATO/European Security: Finnish Defence Minister calls for NATO allies to have a "clear plan" regarding potential future US withdrawal from Europe to prevent creating a "window of opportunities for Russia."
Negotiation Claims (Unverified): "General SVR" channel continues claims of unsuccessful negotiations between Russian representative K. Dmitriev and US President Trump's team regarding a truce. Source credibility remains questionable.
Russia-Tajikistan Relations: Joint anti-terrorist military drills launched in Tajikistan (April 7-11), involving significant Russian contingent from the 201st military base / Central Military District.
