Highest Intensity Axes (UGS, Apr 6, 19:00 UTC & Dva Mayora, Apr 7, 03:36 UTC):Pokrovsk, Lyman, Toretsk, and Kursk/Sumy border directions remain the most active fronts. Significant activity also reported on Kupyansk and Belgorod border axes.
Russian Strike Activity (UGS, Apr 6, 19:00 UTC): Throughout Apr 6, Russian forces conducted 1 missile strike (reportedly involving 23 missiles), 63 aviation strikes (deploying 104 KABs), utilized 718 kamikaze drones, and executed over 4200 shelling attacks against Ukrainian positions and populated areas.
Ukrainian Advance: Confirmed near Borova (Kharkiv Oblast, west of Svatove) (ISW, Apr 6). RU Claim: Ukrainian forces advanced on the southern outskirts of Kamyanka (Kupyansk Axis) and along forest lines (Dva Mayora, Apr 7).
Russian Advances:
Confirmed/Claimed near Kupyansk (Kamyanka - Note: Contradictory RU claim of UA advance exists), Toretsk (N. Toretsk city; between Krymske & Pivnichne), Pokrovsk (Udachne, N. of Andriivka), Kurakhove (Novopavlivsk Axis), and in Kursk Oblast (Huyevo) / Sumy Oblast (Basivka) (ISW, Apr 6 / Dva Mayora, Apr 7).
Also confirmed/claimed advances on Lyman Axis (W. of Balka Zhuravka/Novoliubovka), Kramatorsk Axis (Chasiv Yar - Zapadnyi microdistrict), Pokrovsk Axis (Lysivka; outskirts of Shevchenko), Novopavlivsk Axis (Rozlyv; advancing from Vesele), and Orikhiv Axis (Mali Shcherbaky, Nesteryanka, Mala Tokmachka) (DeepState/RU sources/ISW/TASS).
RU Claim: Russian forces advanced near Sudzha crossing point (Kursk), near Melovoe towards Oleshnia (Kursk), and reached the church in the center of Huyevo (Kursk) confirming presence (Dva Mayora, Apr 7). RU forces consolidating front SW of Toretsk, from Zelene Pole to recently captured Panteleimonivka (Dva Mayora, Apr 7).
Assessment of Russian Advance Rate (ISW via RBC-Ukraina, Apr 7): Analysis indicates Russian territorial gains have decreased monthly since November 2024. ISW attributes this slowdown partially to successful localized Ukrainian counterattacks, particularly on the Pokrovsk and Toretsk axes, which have regained some previously lost positions. Comparative monthly gains (UK MoD / ISW): Nov '24 (~730 / 627 sq km), Dec '24 (393 / 569 sq km), Jan '25 (326 / 427 sq km), Feb '25 (195 / 203 sq km), Mar '25 (UK MoD: 143 sq km).
Kryvyi Rih Attack Aftermath (Apr 4): Death toll confirmed at 20 KIA (incl. 9 children), 75 WIA (per Sternenko/US Amb. Brink, Apr 6, 19:10 UTC). Weapon confirmed as Iskander-M with cluster munition. International condemnation continues. Days of Mourning declared Apr 7-9 in Kryvyi Rih. UA units (71st Jaeger Bde, 63rd Mech Bde) conducted retaliatory strikes labeled "For Kryvyi Rih".
II. Air & Missile Activity Updates
Current Air Threats (Ongoing as of 04:00 UTC Apr 7):
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Threat of aviation weapon employment declared (UA AF, Apr 7, 03:22 UTC; RBC-Ukraina, Apr 7, 03:23 UTC).
Sumy & Donetsk Oblasts: Confirmed KAB launches by Russian tactical aviation towards these regions (UA AF, Apr 7, 03:29 UTC).
Eastern Direction: Previously reported increased activity of Russian tactical aviation (UA AF, Apr 7, 00:35 UTC). Threat of aviation weapon employment remains for frontline oblasts.
Previous Air Threat Alerts (Resolved):
Threat of KAB launches towards Northern Kharkiv Oblast (UA AF, Apr 7 ~02:30 UTC; RBC-Ukraina, Apr 7, 02:32 UTC) ENDED (UA AF, Apr 7, 02:32 UTC).
Threat of aviation weapon employment declared for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (21:28 UTC) and northeastern direction/frontline oblasts (21:35 UTC) ended (UA AF, Apr 6, 21:56 UTC).
Naval Missile Threat Posture (UA Navy via RBC-Ukraina, Apr 7, 03:10 UTC):
Black Sea:No Russian missile carriers currently observed.
Azov Sea:No Russian missile carriers currently observed.
Mediterranean Sea:3 Russian missile carriers present, capable of launching a total of 26 Kalibr missiles.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Previous reconnaissance UAV detection in SW Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (20:49 UTC), threat subsided.
Kramatorsk (Donetsk Oblast): RU "Molniya-2" drone struck a residential area evening Apr 6. No casualties; damage to 6 houses, outbuildings, 1 car.
Kharkiv City (RU Claim): Video purported Geran drone impact evening Apr 6.
Donetsk Oblast: Previous UAV activity reported in northern/central areas (19:00 UTC), ended by 19:18 UTC. RU Claim: UA conducted ~10 attacks using artillery (155mm incl. cluster) and UAVs against Gorlivka (DNR); civilian wounded (Dva Mayora, Apr 7). RU Claim: RU FSB claims EW systems thwarted over 200 Ukrainian air attacks (likely UAVs) in DNR over the past week (TASS, Apr 7, 03:38 UTC).
Overnight Combined Air Assault Analysis (Apr 5-6):
Significant Interception Failure (Kyiv Oblast - UA AF):5 out of 6 Iskander-M ballistic missiles targeting Kyiv Oblast were not intercepted. Potential evasion tactics or trajectory issues suspected. Assessed RU tactical shift towards more difficult-to-intercept ballistic missiles.
RU Claimed Precision Strike (MoD Russia/Rybar, Apr 6): Claimed successful long-range strike (Apr 5-6) against a "central artillery base" and UAV production facilities. Requires verification.
Weather Forecast: Significant cold snap forecasted across Ukraine (started night Apr 6/7), expected to impact operations.
III. Ground Combat Operations & Frontline Updates (Based on Apr 6 Evening Reports & Recent Claims up to Apr 7, 04:00 UTC)
Kursk/Sumy Border (Incl. Russian Territory):
Intensity (UGS, Apr 6, 19:00 UTC / Dva Mayora, Apr 7): High. 29 clashes reported Apr 6 (UGS). RU forces conducted extensive air strikes (17 KABs) and artillery/MLRS attacks. UGS reported repelling 17 RU attacks in Kursk Oblast (past 24h to Apr 6 evening).
RU Attacks Claimed (Dva Mayora, Apr 7): Attacks near Sudzha crossing point, from Melovoe towards Oleshnia, and in Huyevo area (Kursk Oblast). Attacks near Basovka (Sumy Oblast) allegedly using ATVs.
RU Advances Claimed/Confirmed (ISW, Apr 6 / Dva Mayora, Apr 7): Confirmed RU advances in Huyevo (Kursk Oblast) and Basivka (Sumy Oblast) (ISW). RU claim flag raised at church in center of Huyevo (Dva Mayora). RU MoD/Rybar previously claimed Basovka liberated. Fighting near Plekhovo (ISW). Persistent UA activity claimed near Popovka (RU sources).
RU Air Defence Activity: Confirmed operation of RU SHORAD systems (Pantsir/Tor) engaging aerial targets (likely UA drones).
RU War Crimes Allegations & Legal Actions:
Russian security forces claim identification of two additional UA commanders allegedly responsible for war crimes in Sudzhansky district (Kursk) (TASS, Apr 7, 00:03 UTC).
Russia claims 79 Ukrainian military personnel and mercenaries have been convicted for involvement in the Kursk Oblast incursion (RU Gen. Prosecutor via TASS, Apr 7, 03:02 UTC).
UA Denials/Reports: UA Border Guard previously denied RU capture of Basivka (combat ongoing). Video showed reinforcements reaching UA 225th Separate Assault Battalion.
RU Tactics: Reported use of dedicated "drone fighter" drones to intercept UA drones (incl. "Baba Yaga" type).
RU Needs: Fundraising appeal for RU units on Belgorod front citing heavy losses.
UA Capabilities: Confirmed use of German Helsing HF-1 AI kamikaze drones (Sumy). Colombian volunteers confirmed with UA 47th Mech Bde (Kursk). UA 82nd Air Assault Bde active.
Belgorod/Kharkiv Border Area (Russian Territory Focus):
RU Claims (Dva Mayora, Apr 7):
Ukrainian forces building up grouping on border opposite Krasnoyaruzhsky district (Belgorod Oblast).
Russian forces conducting clearing operations against dispersed Ukrainian groups within Russian territory and border forests.
RU Claimed UA Equipment/Personnel Losses & Actions (RU MoD via TASS, Apr 7, 03:13 UTC / Voin DV, Apr 7, 02:00 UTC / Colonelcassad, Apr 7, 02:05 UTC):
Destruction of Ukrainian M113 APC (mine strike) and T-64BV tank claimed, video provided.
Zapad Group claims destruction of 21 UA UAVs, 13 UAV C2 points, 4 Starlink stations, a RAM X loitering munition, over 230 UA personnel, armored vehicles, EW systems, artillery against UA 14th Mech Bde, TDF, border guards near Horod'kivka, Dvorichna, Zahoruykivka, Makiivka. Requires verification.
RU Activity Claim (Voenkor DV, Apr 7 00:00 UTC): Claimed artillery destruction of UA mortar on Izyum direction.
Ukrainian Advance Confirmed (ISW, Apr 6): UA advance near Borova (Kharkiv Oblast, W of Svatove).
Significant RU Advances Claimed / UA Situation Assessment (RVvoenkor citing DeepState, Apr 6): RU claim advance W of Balka Zhuravka/Novoliubovka (>3.5 km wide, up to 2 km deep). DeepState assessment cited indicates deteriorating UA situation on Nove-Katerynivka-Nevske line due to resource issues, poor SA, and RU advantages. Assaults towards Novomykhailivka, success near Nevske/Nove, pressure on Katerynivka.
RU Claimed Actions (RU MoD via TASS, Apr 7, 03:13 UTC): Zapad Group claims actions against UA forces near Makiivka. Requires verification.
RU Advances Confirmed/Claimed (ISW, Apr 6 / Dva Mayora, Apr 7): Confirmed advance on Enhelsa Street in northern Toretsk city (ISW). RU claim advance in forest lines between Krymske and Pivnichne (Severnoye) (Dva Mayora). RU forces reportedly clearing Ukrainian groups from within Toretsk city (Dva Mayora). RU forces conducting heavy fighting to consolidate front SW of Toretsk, from Zelene Pole to recently captured Panteleimonivka (Dva Mayora). Advances near Druzhba and Novobakhmutivka claimed previously (Rybar, Apr 6).
Ukrainian Counterattacks (ISW Assessment, Apr 7): Successful localized UA counterattacks reported on this axis, contributing to slowing overall RU advance rate.
Pokrovsk Axis:
Intensity (UGS, Apr 6, 19:00 UTC / Dva Mayora, Apr 7):Highest.42 RU attempts (UGS); 37 repelled, 5 ongoing (UGS, Apr 6 evening). Heavy fighting ongoing near Uspenivka (Dva Mayora, Apr 7). Extensive KAB strikes.
RU Advances Confirmed/Claimed: Near Udachne and N of Andriivka (ISW, Apr 6); In Lysivka (DeepState, Apr 6); Reached outskirts of Shevchenko (near DPR/Zaporizhzhia border), claiming liberation of ~8 sq km (TASS/Rogov, Apr 7).
Ukrainian Counterattacks (ISW Assessment, Apr 7): Successful localized UA counterattacks reported on this axis, contributing to slowing overall RU advance rate.
Claimed RU Losses (UGS, Apr 6): Significant personnel and equipment losses reported for RU forces on this axis.
UA Action: UA 35th Marines stopped RU BMP disembark attempt (Tsaplienko, Apr 6). Active UA FPV drone use documented.
Novopavlivsk / South Donetsk Axis (incl. Kurakhove Direction):
RU Advances Confirmed/Claimed: Near Kurakhove (ISW, Apr 6); In Rozlyv (DeepState, Apr 6). RU forces claim destruction of 2 UA strongpoints while advancing from Vesele (DPR) (Rogov via TASS, Apr 7, 03:23 UTC). Location likely Vesele south/west of Donetsk City.
RU Offensive Claim (Rybar, Apr 6): Advancing towards Novooleksandrivka.
RU Claimed Advance Rate (TASS/MoD RF, Apr 7): Claim front advancing 1.5-2 km daily on this direction (Vostok Group Cmdr.).
Huliaipole Axis:
UGS Report (Apr 6, 19:00 UTC): 3 RU attacks repelled near Pryvilne, Vilne Pole. KAB strike on Huliaipole.
Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia):
UGS Report (Apr 6, 19:00 UTC): 4 RU attacks repelled near Shcherbaky, Mali Shcherbaky, Kamyanske. KAB strikes.
RU Advances Confirmed / Fighting (ISW, Apr 6 / Dva Mayora, Apr 7): Advances near Mali Shcherbaky, Nesteryanka, Mala Tokmachka (ISW). Fighting near Kamyanske, Mali Shcherbaky, Nesteryanka (ISW). Claimed UA counteroffensives near Robotyne (ISW). RU forces using FPV drones against UA positions in Novodanylivka; Ukrainian forces moving reserves from Orikhiv to reinforce defense (Dva Mayora, Apr 7).
Prydniprovsky Axis (Kherson - Left Bank):
UGS Report (Apr 6, 19:00 UTC): 1 unsuccessful RU attempt repelled. No significant changes noted by ISW (Apr 6).
RU Strike Claim (TASS citing Rogov, Apr 7, 02:37 UTC): Claimed strikes against UA positions in Kazatske and Vesele (Kherson Oblast).
Occupied Territories (Specific Incidents):
Gorlivka (DNR):RU Claim: Ukrainian artillery strike wounded a male civilian (born 1956). Vehicle damaged. Claimed ~10 UA attacks using 155mm artillery (incl. cluster munitions) and UAVs (Dva Mayora, Apr 7).
IV. Ukrainian Operations in Russian Territory
Energy Infrastructure Strikes:
RU Claim (MoD Russia, Apr 6): Claim 7 UA attacks on Russian energy infrastructure (Apr 5-6) in Crimea, Bryansk, Rostov, Voronezh Oblasts.
Previous UA Assessment: Strikes on Saransk optic fiber plant and Chapayevsk explosives plant assessed as significant.
Border Engagements: See Kursk/Sumy Border and Belgorod/Kharkiv Border sections. Includes confirmed UA drone activity, RU air defense engagement, claimed UA force buildup (Belgorod), and confirmed/claimed RU advances/attacks within Kursk/Sumy Oblasts. Also includes RU claims of ongoing UA shelling into Belgorod Oblast.
Information Warfare, Legal Actions & Alleged Sabotage (RU Claims):
(TASS, Apr 7, 00:13 UTC): Allegation SBU offered payment for explosive packages disguised as gifts to Russian MoD officers. Part of RU narrative alleging UA sabotage within Russia.
(Colonelcassad, Apr 7, 02:30 UTC): RU PSYOP channels distributing messages calling for Ukrainian citizens to collaborate with Russia via Telegram bot.
(TASS, Apr 7, 03:02 UTC): RU General Prosecutor claims 79 Ukrainian military personnel and mercenaries convicted for actions during the Kursk Oblast incursion.
(Colonelcassad, Apr 7, 03:04 UTC): Dissemination of video allegedly showing aggressive UA mobilization practices. Part of RU PSYOP campaign.
V. Technology & Capabilities Assessment
Unmanned Systems (UAS):
UA: Active FPV/drone strikes reported by multiple brigades. Reported deployment of Helsing HF-1 AI drones (Kursk border). Ongoing tactical drone strikes into RU border regions. Claimed drone attacks on Gorlivka (DNR) and allegedly thwarted by EW elsewhere in DNR. Claimed use of RAM X loitering munition (RU MoD claim of destruction).
RU: High kamikaze drone usage (718 on Apr 6). Specialized drones ("Molniya-2") used. Claimed drone interceptor tactics employed on Kursk/Sumy border. Active FPV use reported on Pokrovsk and Zaporizhzhia (Novodanylivka) axes. Claimed destruction of UA octocopter (Pokrovsk) and tank (Kurakhove). Claimed destruction of UA M113 (Kupyansk). Claimed destruction of 21 UA UAVs and 13 UAV C2 points by Zapad Group (RU MoD via TASS, Apr 7).
Production/Logistics: RU claim strike on UA UAV production facilities. Previous UA strike assessed impact on RU FPV production (Saransk).
