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Historical Intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing

Report Time
2025-04-07 03:02:15Z
10 months ago
Previous (2025-04-07 02:32:23Z)

Military Situation Update Extracts: Ukraine - April 7, 2025, 03:00 UTC

(Updated based on information received up to 03:00 UTC)

I. Overall Situation & Combat Intensity

  • Combat Engagements (UGS, Apr 6, 19:00 UTC): 135 combat clashes reported throughout Apr 6.
  • Highest Intensity Axes (UGS, Apr 6, 19:00 UTC): Pokrovsk, Lyman, Toretsk, and Kursk directions remain the most active fronts.
  • Russian Strike Activity (UGS, Apr 6, 19:00 UTC): Throughout Apr 6, Russian forces conducted 1 missile strike (reportedly involving 23 missiles), 63 aviation strikes (deploying 104 KABs), utilized 718 kamikaze drones, and executed over 4200 shelling attacks against Ukrainian positions and populated areas.
  • Territorial Control Changes & Advance Rates (Recent Reports incl. ISW Apr 6 / DeepState Apr 6 / RBC-Ukraina Apr 7 / TASS Apr 7):
    • Ukrainian Advance: Confirmed near Borova (Kharkiv Oblast, west of Svatove) (ISW, Apr 6).
    • Russian Advances: Confirmed/Claimed near Kupyansk (Kamyanka), Toretsk (N. Toretsk city), Pokrovsk (Udachne, N. of Andriivka), Kurakhove (Novopavlivsk Axis), and in Kursk Oblast (Huyevo) / Sumy Oblast (Basivka) (ISW, Apr 6). Also confirmed/claimed advances on Lyman Axis (W. of Balka Zhuravka/Novoliubovka), Kramatorsk Axis (Chasiv Yar - Zapadnyi microdistrict), Pokrovsk Axis (Lysivka; outskirts of Shevchenko), Novopavlivsk Axis (Rozlyv), and Orikhiv Axis (Mali Shcherbaky, Nesteryanka, Mala Tokmachka) (DeepState/RU sources/ISW/TASS).
    • Assessment of Russian Advance Rate (ISW via RBC-Ukraina, Apr 7): Analysis indicates Russian territorial gains have decreased monthly since November 2024. ISW attributes this slowdown partially to successful localized Ukrainian counterattacks, particularly on the Pokrovsk and Toretsk axes, which have regained some previously lost positions. Comparative monthly gains (UK MoD / ISW): Nov '24 (~730 / 627 sq km), Dec '24 (393 / 569 sq km), Jan '25 (326 / 427 sq km), Feb '25 (195 / 203 sq km), Mar '25 (UK MoD: 143 sq km).
  • Kryvyi Rih Attack Aftermath (Apr 4): Death toll confirmed at 20 KIA (incl. 9 children), 75 WIA (per Sternenko/US Amb. Brink, Apr 6, 19:10 UTC). Weapon confirmed as Iskander-M with cluster munition. International condemnation continues. Days of Mourning declared Apr 7-9 in Kryvyi Rih. UA units (71st Jaeger Bde, 63rd Mech Bde) conducted retaliatory strikes labeled "For Kryvyi Rih".

II. Air & Missile Activity Updates

  • Current Air Threats (Ongoing as of 03:00 UTC Apr 7):
    • Eastern Direction: Increased activity of Russian tactical aviation reported. Threat of aviation weapon employment declared for frontline oblasts (UA AF, Apr 7, 00:35 UTC).
    • Sumy & Donetsk Oblasts: Confirmed KAB launches by Russian tactical aviation towards these regions (UA AF, Apr 7, 00:36 UTC).
    • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Threat of aviation weapon employment declared (UA AF, Apr 7, 00:54 UTC).
  • Previous Air Threat Alerts (Resolved Apr 7):
    • Threat of KAB launches towards Northern Kharkiv Oblast (UA AF, Apr 7 ~02:30 UTC; RBC-Ukraina, Apr 7, 02:32 UTC) ENDED (UA AF, Apr 7, 02:32 UTC).
    • Threat of aviation weapon employment declared for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (21:28 UTC) and northeastern direction/frontline oblasts (21:35 UTC) ended (UA AF, Apr 6, 21:56 UTC).
  • Guided Aerial Bomb (KAB) Threats & Strikes (Apr 6 Activity Summary):
    • Sumy Oblast: Multiple KAB launch alerts throughout the day (19:03, 21:36 UTC).
    • Donetsk Oblast: Multiple KAB launch alerts throughout the day (18:44, 20:50 UTC).
    • Zolochiv Hromada (Kharkiv Oblast): Third KAB attack confirmed; 4 KABs total Apr 6 (3 open terrain, 1 near Zolochiv town damaging house). 1 civilian injured (stress reaction).
    • Novopavlivka, Synelnykivskyi District (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): Airstrike injured 3 civilians (preliminary). Damage reported.
    • Kupyansk (Kharkiv Oblast): KAB strike on 9-story residential building caused fire, structural damage, 2 civilians injured.
    • UGS Confirmed KAB Strikes (Apr 6): Berezivka, Kozacha Lopan, Zolochiv, Dvorichanske (Kharkiv); Berestok, Pokrovsk, Zorya, Hrodivka, Kotlyne, Novopavlivka (Donetsk - Pokrovsk Axis); Odradne, Komar, Myrne (Donetsk - Novopavlivsk Axis); Huliaipole (Zaporizhzhia - Huliaipole Axis); Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, Novoandriivka (Zaporizhzhia - Orikhiv Axis); Kursk direction (17 KABs total).
  • Hostile UAV Activity (Apr 6 Summary):
    • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Previous reconnaissance UAV detection in SW Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (20:49 UTC), threat subsided.
    • Kramatorsk (Donetsk Oblast): RU "Molniya-2" drone struck a residential area evening Apr 6. No casualties; damage to 6 houses, outbuildings, 1 car.
    • Kharkiv City (RU Claim): Video purported Geran drone impact evening Apr 6.
    • Donetsk Oblast: Previous UAV activity reported in northern/central areas (19:00 UTC), ended by 19:18 UTC.
  • Overnight Combined Air Assault Analysis (Apr 5-6):
    • Targeting: Confirmed strikes across multiple oblasts (Kyiv, Cherkasy, Khmelnytskyi, Sumy, Zhytomyr, Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Zaporizhzhia).
    • Weapons & Interceptions (UA AF): 132 air targets tracked (9x Kh-101/55SM, 8x Kalibr, 6x Iskander-M, 109x Shahed/Decoy). 53 targets intercepted (6x Kh-101/55SM, 6x Kalibr, 1x Iskander-M, 40x Shahed).
    • Significant Interception Failure (Kyiv Oblast - UA AF): 5 out of 6 Iskander-M ballistic missiles targeting Kyiv Oblast were not intercepted. Potential evasion tactics or trajectory issues suspected. Assessed RU tactical shift towards more difficult-to-intercept ballistic missiles.
    • Impacts: 1 Civilian Killed (Kyiv City), Multiple Injured (across Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Khmelnytskyi Oblasts). Significant damage to civilian infrastructure.
  • RU Claimed Precision Strike (MoD Russia/Rybar, Apr 6): Claimed successful long-range strike (Apr 5-6) against a "central artillery base" and UAV production facilities. Requires verification.
  • Weather Forecast: Significant cold snap forecasted across Ukraine (starting night Apr 6/7), expected to impact operations.

III. Ground Combat Operations & Frontline Updates (Based on Apr 6 Evening Reports & Recent Claims)

  • Kursk/Sumy Border (Incl. Russian Territory):
    • Intensity (UGS, Apr 6, 19:00 UTC): High. 29 clashes reported Apr 6. RU forces conducted extensive air strikes (17 KABs) and artillery/MLRS attacks. UGS reported repelling 17 RU attacks in Kursk Oblast (past 24h).
    • RU Advances Confirmed (ISW, Apr 6): Confirmed Russian advances in Huyevo (Kursk Oblast) and Basivka (Sumy Oblast). Fighting near Plekhovo.
    • RU Air Defence Activity: Confirmed operation of RU SHORAD systems (Pantsir/Tor) engaging aerial targets (likely UA drones).
    • RU Claims: Basovka liberated (MoD/Rybar); Russian flag raised in Guevo; Demidovka (Belgorod) cleared/recaptured; RU pushing UA out of Huyevo towards Oleshnia. Persistent UA activity near Popovka.
    • RU War Crimes Allegations (TASS, Apr 7, 00:03 UTC): Russian security forces claim identification of two additional UA commanders allegedly responsible for war crimes in Sudzhansky district (Kursk). This aligns with previous UA reports of RU fabricating such claims (e.g., in Sudzha, per Col. Dmytrashkivskyi).
    • UA Denials/Reports: UA Border Guard previously denied RU capture of Basivka (combat ongoing). Video showed reinforcements reaching UA 225th Separate Assault Battalion.
    • RU Tactics: Reported use of dedicated "drone fighter" drones to intercept UA drones (incl. "Baba Yaga" type).
    • RU Needs: Fundraising appeal for RU units on Belgorod front citing heavy losses.
    • UA Capabilities: Confirmed use of German Helsing HF-1 AI kamikaze drones (Sumy). Colombian volunteers confirmed with UA 47th Mech Bde (Kursk). UA 82nd Air Assault Bde active.
  • Kharkiv Axis:
    • UGS Report (Apr 6, 19:00 UTC): 2 RU attacks repelled near Vovchansk and towards Kamyanka. KAB strikes hit Berezivka, Kozacha Lopan, Zolochiv, Dvorichanske. No significant changes noted by ISW (Apr 6).
    • Air Activity: KAB launch threat towards northern Kharkiv Oblast resolved (UA AF, Apr 7, 02:32 UTC).
  • Kupyansk Axis:
    • UGS Report (Apr 6, 19:00 UTC): 6 RU attempts; 5 repelled, 1 ongoing near Pishchane, Nova Kruhliakivka, Bohuslavka, Zahryzove.
    • RU Advance Confirmed (ISW, Apr 6): Confirmed advance in Kamyanka. Fighting near Synkivka, Kyslivka, Vyshneve, Zahryzove.
    • RU Claimed UA Equipment Loss (Voin DV, Apr 7, 02:00 UTC / Colonelcassad, Apr 7, 02:05 UTC): Russian sources claim destruction of a Ukrainian M113 APC after it struck Russian anti-tank mines (reportedly TM-62) on this direction. Video evidence provided. Reinforces mine warfare threat in the area. Colonelcassad also published footage of the destroyed M113 and a T-64BV tank.
    • RU Activity Claim (Voenkor DV, Apr 7 00:00 UTC): Claimed artillery destruction of UA mortar on Izyum direction.
  • Lyman Axis:
    • Intensity (UGS, Apr 6, 19:00 UTC): High. 20 RU attacks; 14 repelled, 6 ongoing near multiple settlements.
    • Ukrainian Advance Confirmed (ISW, Apr 6): UA advance near Borova (Kharkiv Oblast, W of Svatove).
    • Significant RU Advances Claimed / UA Situation Deteriorating (RVvoenkor citing DeepState, Apr 6): RU claim advance W of Balka Zhuravka/Novoliubovka (>3.5 km wide, up to 2 km deep). DeepState assessment cited indicates deteriorating UA situation on Nove-Katerynivka-Nevske line due to ineffective resource use, poor SA, and RU advantages (drones, strikes, infantry pressure). Assaults towards Novomykhailivka, success near Nevske/Nove, pressure on Katerynivka.
  • Siversk Axis:
    • UGS Report (Apr 6, 19:00 UTC): 2 RU assaults repelled near Bilohorivka.
  • Kramatorsk Axis (incl. Chasiv Yar):
    • UGS Report (Apr 6 evening): 3 RU attacks repelled near Chasiv Yar, Hryhorivka.
    • RU Advance Confirmed (DeepState, Apr 6): Enemy advanced near Zapadnyi (Western) microdistrict of Chasiv Yar.
    • RU Claim (Colonelcassad, Apr 6): Claimed clearing of Western district (microdistrict Kanal). Noted signs of UA preparation for counter-actions.
  • Toretsk (Dzerzhynsk) Axis:
    • Intensity (UGS, Apr 6, 19:00 UTC): High. 17 RU assaults; 16 repelled, 1 ongoing near Dachne, Dyliivka, Toretsk, Leonidivka.
    • RU Advance Confirmed (ISW, Apr 6): Confirmed advance on Enhelsa Street in northern Toretsk city.
    • RU Claimed Advances (Rybar, Apr 6): Advances near Druzhba and Novobakhmutivka. Small group battles within Toretsk.
    • Ukrainian Counterattacks (ISW Assessment, Apr 7): Successful localized UA counterattacks reported on this axis, contributing to slowing overall RU advance rate.
  • Pokrovsk Axis:
    • Intensity (UGS, Apr 6, 19:00 UTC): Highest. 42 RU attempts; 37 repelled, 5 ongoing near numerous settlements. Extensive KAB strikes.
    • RU Advances Confirmed/Claimed: Near Udachne and N of Andriivka (ISW, Apr 6); In Lysivka (DeepState, Apr 6); Reached outskirts of Shevchenko (near DPR/Zaporizhzhia border), claiming liberation of ~8 sq km (TASS/Rogov, Apr 7).
    • Ukrainian Counterattacks (ISW Assessment, Apr 7): Successful localized UA counterattacks reported on this axis, contributing to slowing overall RU advance rate.
    • RU Claimed Significant UA Equipment Losses (Operatsiya Z/RVvoenkor, Apr 6): Extensive list of claimed UA/NATO vehicle destructions by alleged "Maksym Kryvonos Battalion". Propaganda element noted.
    • Claimed RU Losses (UGS, Apr 6): Significant personnel and equipment losses reported for RU forces on this axis.
    • UA Action: UA 35th Marines stopped RU BMP disembark attempt (Tsaplienko, Apr 6). Active UA FPV drone use documented.
  • Novopavlivsk / South Donetsk Axis (incl. Kurakhove Direction):
    • UGS Report (Apr 6, 19:00 UTC): 4 RU attacks; 3 repelled, 1 ongoing near Rozlyv, Kostiantynopil. KAB strikes.
    • RU Advances Confirmed: Near Kurakhove (ISW, Apr 6); In Rozlyv (DeepState, Apr 6).
    • RU Offensive Claim (Rybar, Apr 6): Advancing towards Novooleksandrivka.
    • RU Claimed Advance Rate (TASS/MoD RF, Apr 7): Claim front advancing 1.5-2 km daily on this direction (Vostok Group Cmdr.).
    • RU Drone Activity Claim (Voin DV, Apr 6): Claimed FPV strike on UA tank.
  • Huliaipole Axis:
    • UGS Report (Apr 6, 19:00 UTC): 3 RU attacks repelled near Pryvilne, Vilne Pole. KAB strike on Huliaipole.
  • Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia):
    • UGS Report (Apr 6, 19:00 UTC): 4 RU attacks repelled near Shcherbaky, Mali Shcherbaky, Kamyanske. KAB strikes.
    • RU Advances Confirmed / Fighting (ISW, Apr 6): Advances near Mali Shcherbaky, Nesteryanka, Mala Tokmachka. Fighting near Kamyanske, Mali Shcherbaky, Nesteryanka. Claimed UA counteroffensives near Robotyne.
  • Prydniprovsky Axis (Kherson - Left Bank):
    • UGS Report (Apr 6, 19:00 UTC): 1 unsuccessful RU attempt repelled. No significant changes noted by ISW (Apr 6).
    • RU Strike Claim (TASS citing Rogov, Apr 7): Claimed strikes against UA positions in Kazatske and Vesele (Kherson Oblast).
  • UA Units Commended (UGS, Apr 6, 19:00 UTC): 47th Mech Bde, 31st Mech Bde, 140th Marine Recon Bn cited.

IV. Ukrainian Operations in Russian Territory

  • Energy Infrastructure Strikes:
    • RU Claim (MoD Russia, Apr 6): Claim 7 UA attacks on Russian energy infrastructure (Apr 5-6) in Crimea, Bryansk, Rostov, Voronezh Oblasts.
    • Previous UA Assessment: Strikes on Saransk optic fiber plant and Chapayevsk explosives plant assessed as significant.
  • Border Engagements: See Kursk/Sumy Border section. Includes confirmed UA drone activity, RU air defense engagement, and confirmed RU advances.
  • Information Warfare & Alleged Sabotage (RU Claims):
    • (TASS, Apr 7, 00:13 UTC): Allegation SBU offered payment to Kyiv resident for delivering explosive packages disguised as gifts to Russian MoD officers. Part of RU narrative alleging UA sabotage within Russia.
    • (Colonelcassad, Apr 7, 02:30 UTC): Russian propaganda channels distributing messages calling for Ukrainian citizens to collaborate with Russia via an anonymous Telegram bot, framed as "people's resistance" to "accelerate victory." This represents ongoing Russian PSYOP efforts targeting the Ukrainian population.

V. Technology & Capabilities Assessment

  • Unmanned Systems (UAS):
    • UA: Active FPV/drone strikes reported by multiple brigades across various axes.
    • RU: High kamikaze drone usage (718 on Apr 6). Specialized drones ("Molniya-2") used. Claimed drone interceptor tactics employed on Kursk/Sumy border. Claimed destruction of UA octocopter (Pokrovsk) and tank (Kurakhove). Claimed destruction of UA M113 (Kupyansk).
    • Production/Logistics: RU claim strike on UA UAV production facilities. Previous UA strike assessed impact on RU FPV production (Saransk). (TASS, Apr 7, 02:05 UTC): Russian court rejected MoD lawsuit against Vladimir "Elektropribor" plant (counter-UAV systems manufacturer), potentially indicating internal friction or issues within the Russian defense industry regarding C-UAS procurement/delivery.
  • Artillery & Indirect Fire:
    • RU: Extremely high shelling volume (>4200 attacks Apr 6). D-30 howitzer use claimed (Izyum direction). Active mining operations confirmed (e.g., Kupyansk axis with TM-62 mines).
    • UA: Retaliatory artillery strikes ("For Kryvyi Rih").
  • Air Power:
    • RU: High KAB usage (104 on Apr 6). Continued high tactical aviation activity noted on Eastern direction with active KAB deployment towards Sumy/Donetsk and threat warnings for frontline oblasts including Dnipropetrovsk (as of early Apr 7). Previous significant interception failure of Iskander-M missiles indicates potential RU tactical shift.
  • Equipment Losses (Claimed):
    • UA: M113 APC destroyed by mines on Kupyansk axis (RU Claim, Apr 7, Voin DV / Colonelcassad video). T-64BV Tank destroyed (RU Claim, Apr 7, Colonelcassad video, location unspecified).
Previous (2025-04-07 02:32:23Z)

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