Military Situation Update Extracts: Ukraine - April 6, 2025, 20:31 UTC
I. Overall Situation & Combat Intensity
Combat Engagements (UGS, 19:00 UTC):135 combat clashes reported throughout the day.
Highest Intensity Axes (UGS, 19:00 UTC):Pokrovsk, Lyman, Toretsk, and Kursk directions remain the most active fronts.
Russian Strike Activity (UGS, 19:00 UTC): Throughout the day, Russian forces conducted 1 missile strike (reportedly involving 23 missiles), 63 aviation strikes (deploying 104 KABs), utilized 718 kamikaze drones, and executed over 4200 shelling attacks against Ukrainian positions and populated areas.
Kryvyi Rih Attack Aftermath (Apr 4): Death toll confirmed at 20 KIA (incl. 9 children), 75 WIA (per Sternenko/US Amb. Brink, Apr 6, 19:10 UTC). Weapon confirmed as Iskander-M with cluster munition. International condemnation continues. Days of Mourning declared Apr 7-9 in Kryvyi Rih.
II. Air & Missile Activity Updates
Guided Aerial Bomb (KAB) Threats & Strikes:
Donetsk Oblast (19:59 / 20:00 UTC): Repeated KAB launches by RU tactical aviation reported towards Donetsk Oblast (UA AF, RBC-Ukraina). Ongoing threat.
Sumy Oblast (19:03 UTC): Previous KAB launches reported towards Sumy Oblast (UA AF).
Donetsk Oblast (18:44 UTC): Previous KAB launches reported towards Donetsk Oblast (UA AF).
Zolochiv Hromada (Kharkiv Oblast - Earlier): Third KAB attack confirmed; 4 KABs total today (3 open terrain, 1 near Zolochiv town damaging house). 1 civilian injured (stress reaction).
Novopavlivka, Synelnykivskyi District (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast - Earlier): Airstrike injured 3 civilians (preliminary). Damage reported. (Zaporizhzhia OVA, ASTRA).
Previous Activity (Donetsk Oblast - 19:00 UTC): UAVs were active in northern and central Donetsk Oblast (Vanek, UA AF). Activity reported ended by 19:18 UTC (Vanek).
Kharkiv City (RU Claim, 19:05 UTC): Video purports to show Geran drone impact in Kharkiv during the evening (Colonelcassad).
Overnight Combined Air Assault Analysis (Apr 5-6):
Significant Failure: 5 out of 6 Iskander-M ballistic missiles targeting Kyiv Oblast were not intercepted. Potential evasion tactics or trajectory issues suspected.
Overall Interceptions: 53/109 total air targets intercepted (includes 6/9 Kh-101/55SM, 6/8 Kalibr, 1/6 Iskander-M, 40 Shahed/Decoy).
RU Claimed Precision Strike (MoD Russia, 19:05 UTC): Claimed successful long-range air/sea/UAV strike against a "central artillery base" and UAV production facilities of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Goal reportedly achieved, all targets engaged. Requires verification.
Weather Forecast: Significant cold snap forecasted across Ukraine from night Apr 6/7 (frost to -5°C, ice, possible snow), expected to impact mobility, logistics, and troop conditions. (RBC-Ukraina, 18:43 UTC).
(Voenkor Kotenok, 19:59 UTC): RU forces claim clearing operations in Demidovka (Belgorod Oblast) are complete, alleging UA forces were forced from hiding places ("dug out"). Claimed UA escape attempts and reinforcement efforts were defeated with losses. Activity focused on preventing UA forces from retreating.
(RVvoenkor, 19:02 UTC): Earlier claim RU forces recaptured Demidovka from UA forces allegedly holding it for 2 weeks; clearing adjacent areas. This narrative evolved to clearing operations being complete.
(MoD Russia/Rybar, 19:05/19:39 UTC): Claim RU "Sever" Group liberated Basovka (Sumy Oblast), consolidating positions. Claim >170 UA KIA/WIA, equipment losses in 24h.
(Dnevnik Desantnika, 18:33 UTC): RU claimed pushing UA out of Huyevo towards Oleshnia (Kursk).
(Voenkor Kotenok, 19:59 UTC): UA infantry group activity persists near Popovka.
UA Denials/Reports: UA Border Guard previously denied RU capture of Basivka (combat ongoing).
(Tsaplienko, 19:09 UTC): UA official (Col. Dmytrashkivskyi) reports RU fabricating reports of UA atrocities in Sudzha (Kursk), alleging locals paid for false testimony and plans for show trials of UA POWs based on forced confessions.
(Operativnyi ZSU, 20:00 UTC): Video purports to show reinforcements reaching UA 225th Separate Assault Battalion, countering RU claims the unit is blocked (Area of Operation unconfirmed but potentially Kursk/Sumy).
RU Tactics (Voenkor Kotenok, 19:59 UTC): RU forces reportedly implemented new drone tactics in this area: deploying some drones for ground attack and others specifically as "drone fighters" to intercept UA drones, particularly targeting larger "Baba Yaga" type drones used for remote minelaying.
RU Needs Assessment (RVvoenkor, 19:32 UTC): Urgent fundraising appeal for RU units on Belgorod front citing "heavy situation," significant equipment losses (drones, thermals, detectors) needed to "stop enemy offensive."
UA Capabilities: Confirmed use of German Helsing HF-1 AI kamikaze drones (Sumy). Colombian volunteers confirmed with UA 47th Mech Bde (Kursk). UA 82nd Air Assault Bde active.
Kharkiv Axis:
UGS Report (19:00 UTC): 2 RU attacks repelled near Vovchansk and towards Kamyanka. RU air strikes hit Berezivka, Kozacha Lopan, Zolochiv, Dvorichanske.
RU forces claim to have advanced and secured positions west of Balka Zhuravka and Novoliubovka, on a front wider than 3.5 km and up to 2 km deep.
DeepState assessment (cited by RU source) indicates the situation for UA forces on the Nove-Katerynivka-Nevske line is continuing to deteriorate.
RU forces reportedly conducting assault operations towards Novomykhailivka and achieving success near Nevske and Nove. Constant pressure reported on Katerynivka.
DeepState attributes UA difficulties to ineffective resource use by the defending brigade, poor situational awareness, and Russian advantages in drones, strike capabilities, and persistent infantry pressure.
DeepState assessment (per RU source) describes the situation as worsening and requiring urgent intervention ("needs saving").
Previous RU Claims (Apr 5): Advances towards Zelena Dolyna, Nove, S of Yampolivka towards Torske. Expanded control N/W of Makiivka; captured strongpoints near Ivanivka, approaching Nove; took Novoliubivka; cleared territory near Nevske.
UA Unit Needs: 55th Btn, 63rd Mech Bde (Serebryansky Forest area) previously crowdfunding for pickup truck with EW capability.
Siversk Axis:
UGS Report (19:00 UTC): 2 RU assaults repelled near Bilohorivka.
Kramatorsk Axis (incl. Chasiv Yar):
RU Claim (Colonelcassad, 19:24 UTC): Claim RU forces cleared the Western district (microdistrict Kanal) of Chasiv Yar. Notes increased signs of UA preparing offensive actions near Chasiv Yar to counter RU advance, strengthening forces, and using FPVs to disrupt RU logistics. Requires verification.
UA Action (Tsaplienko, 19:31 UTC): UA 35th Marine Brigade reportedly stopped RU attempt to disembark infantry from BMP near Pokrovsk using combined drone and artillery strikes.
RU Claims (Apr 5): Tactical successes near Udachne; continued advances W of Troitske, near Bohdanivka; expanding control N of Shevchenko.
UA POW (RU Source, 19:40 UTC): Video released of Serhiy Zolochevskyi (b. 1977) from 5th Separate Assault Brigade (Kyiv), claiming forced mobilization, injury, and capture. Propaganda context.
Novopavlivsk / South Donetsk Axis:
UGS Report (19:00 UTC): 4 RU attacks near Rozlyv, Kostiantynopil. 3 repelled, 1 ongoing. KAB strikes on Odradne, Komar, Myrne.
RU Claims (Apr 5): Advances up to 2 km from Andriivka towards Oleksiivka; advance over 1.5 km deep near Bohatyr; initiated ops towards Fedorivka; expanded control near Burlatske towards Shevchenko.
Huliaipole Axis:
UGS Report (19:00 UTC): 3 RU attacks near Pryvilne and Vilne Pole repelled. KAB strike on Huliaipole.
Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia):
UGS Report (19:00 UTC): 4 RU attacks repelled towards Shcherbaky, Mali Shcherbaky, Kamyanske. KAB strikes on Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, Novoandriivka.
UA Units Commended (UGS, 19:00 UTC): 47th Mech Bde, 31st Mech Bde, 140th Marine Recon Bn cited for effective combat performance.
IV. Ukrainian Operations in Russian Territory
Energy Infrastructure Strikes:
RU Claim (MoD Russia, 19:05 UTC): Claim 7 UA attacks on Russian energy infrastructure in the past 24 hours, alleging continued strikes despite purported commitments. This repeats similar claims from Apr 4-5 targeting multiple oblasts.
Previous UA Assessment: Strikes on Saransk optic fiber plant (Apr 4-5) assessed as significant for disrupting RU FPV drone production. Strike on Chapayevsk explosives plant assessed as impacting RU ordnance production.
Border Engagements: See Kursk/Sumy Border section.
V. Technology & Capabilities Assessment
Unmanned Systems (UAS):
UA FPV/Drone Use: Active strikes reported by 3rd Assault Bde, Kurakhove direction units, 35th Marines (Pokrovsk, 19:31 UTC), 24th Mech, 38th Marines, 44th Artillery Bde (destroying 2 RU guns, crews, ammo), 93rd Bde, "Kryla Omega" unit, 71st Jaeger Brigade (retaliatory strikes "For Kryvyi Rih", 20:21 UTC). Fiber-optic guided drones (20km range) operational (Syrskyi, Apr 5). Ongoing need highlighted (55th Btn/63rd Bde request; successful 36th Marines fundraiser - Vanek 19:15 UTC). Active use near Chasiv Yar impacting RU logistics (RU source). Approx. 1,000 RU recon UAVs neutralized in past month (Syrskyi, Apr 5).
RU FPV/Drone Use: Claimed use by Arkhangel Spetsnaza (19:02 UTC) and Bobr unit (Colonelcassad video, 20:01 UTC). Impact in Kharkiv claimed (19:05 UTC). New Tactic (Kursk Border): Use of dedicated anti-drone "fighter" UAVs alongside ground attack drones (Voenkor Kotenok, 19:59 UTC). Previous claims: strike on UA CAESAR SPG, MaxxPro MRAP, KIA of UA Intl. Legion Sgt (Zaporizhzhia), RU 61st Naval Inf Bde strikes (Kherson Right Bank), destruction of UA "Baba Yaga" hexacopter, drone signal amplifier (Orikhiv), Kozak AV + 3 vehicles (Pokrovsk axis). Fiber-optic drones used on Sumy border.
RU Production Impact: UA strike on Saransk optic fiber plant assessed to impact RU FPV drone production. RU MoD claims strike on UA UAV production facility (19:05 UTC).
Unmanned Underwater Vehicles (UUV):
US Navy Development (Dva Mayora, 19:59 UTC): US company Anduril delivered first Dive-LD autonomous underwater vehicle to US Navy UUVRON-1 squadron. Key capabilities: 6,000m depth, 10-day autonomy, modular payload (ISR, MCM, ASW, mapping), 3D-printed hull. Part of Pentagon's Replicator initiative; new factory aims for 200 units/year from 2026. RU source notes strategic importance of capabilities against underwater infrastructure.
Munitions:
RU Glide Bombs (Dva Mayora, 19:59 UTC): Image shared showing handling of a Russian UPAB-1500B-E heavy precision-guided glide bomb, confirming availability/use.
Claimed UA Equipment Losses (RU Sources, Apr 5): CAESAR 8x8 SPG (Dnipropetrovsk), International MaxxPro MRAP (Kotlyno).
Bradley vs BMP-3 Assessment: Ongoing discussion within RU channels regarding alleged RU MoD report acknowledging Bradley superiority (Kotenok, Apr 6).
Logistics & Support:
UA Needs: Persistent crowdfunding appeals (e.g., 55th Btn/63rd Bde, 24th Aidar/72nd Mech/SSO). Successful fundraising reported by Nikolaevskiy Vanek for 36th Marines (Sumy direction).
RU Needs: Dnevnik Desantnika fundraising for Azart radio batteries (19:07 UTC). RVvoenkor appeal for Belgorod front (drones, thermals, detectors, 19:32 UTC). Dva Mayora appeal for "Frontovaya Bronya" vehicle armor project (19:51 UTC).
VI. Information Environment & Other Noteworthy Items
Belarus/Russia Security: Belarusian customs claim interception of 580kg of explosives from Poland, allegedly destined for Russia (RU sources, 19:39 UTC, reinforced by Kotenok 19:56 UTC framing it as preventing major terror attack).
Occupied Territories: DPR anniversary celebrations held in Donetsk, including military displays and youth indoctrination activities (WarGonzo, 19:11/19:43 UTC). Photos show dilapidated Shakhtar Stadium (Sternenko, 18:22 UTC).
Information Operations:
RU Narratives: Promoting RU military successes (Basovka capture, Demidovka clearing completion claim, Chasiv Yar claim, Lyman advances). Highlighting RU medical successes/commemorations. Showcasing DPR celebrations for normalization/propaganda. Amplifying Ovechkin's NHL record across multiple channels as morale boost/soft power. Repeating claims of UA attacks on RU energy. Propagating POW narratives (Zolochevskyi video). Highlighting fundraising efforts framing defensive needs (Belgorod). Linking Nevsky film to current conflict (WarGonzo). Questioning loyalty of state media (RIA Novosti) internally (Dva Mayora, 19:12 UTC). Framing Belarus explosives intercept as major counter-terrorism success. Attributing US military leadership changes to internal political struggles ("Trump repressions") and linking dismissed officials to past events (Nord Stream, Baltic cables).
UA Narratives: Highlighting civilian casualties (Kryvyi Rih). Showcasing drone/artillery successes (35th Marines, 44th Arty, 71st Jaeger Bde - "Revenge for Kryvyi Rih"). Countering RU propaganda regarding alleged atrocities in Kursk Oblast (Tsaplienko, 19:09 UTC) and claims of UA units being blocked (Operativnyi ZSU, 20:00 UTC). Fundraising appeals emphasizing needs and successes (Vanek). Sharing international condemnation of RU attacks (US Amb. Brink). Highlighting diplomatic engagement (US Rep. Bacon meeting). Highlighting international support (Washington D.C. rally).
Geopolitics:
Iran: Reportedly raised military readiness following threats attributed to D. Trump regarding nuclear talks; warned neighbors hosting US bases (Reuters via RBC-Ukraina/Operativnyi ZSU, 19:16/19:47 UTC).
US-Ukraine: US Rep. Don Bacon met with UA MPs delegation (Sternenko, 19:39 UTC). Pro-Ukraine rally held in Washington D.C. (Sternenko, 20:23 UTC). Previous reports on US Amb. Brink condemnation of Kryvyi Rih strike and Zelenskyy's call for more air defense. Alleged OPSEC leak involving US official adding journalist to secure chat (Guardian via RBC-Ukraina, 19:41 UTC).
US Internal: Dismissal of Commander, US Navy Information Operations Command (Christopher Johnson) reported ("loss of confidence"), following dismissal of CYBERCOM chief (Voin DV, 20:04 UTC; Colonelcassad, 20:26 UTC). US tariffs reportedly implemented without delay (RVvoenkor, 19:59 UTC).
