Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 6, 2025, 13:30 UTC
I. Major Developments & Air/Missile Activity
Ongoing Air Threats (as of 13:02 UTC):
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Threat of air-launched weapons reported (UA AF, 13:02 UTC).
Eastern/Northeastern Fronts: Continued activity of Russian tactical aviation reported earlier (UA AF, 12:15 UTC).
KAB Launches (Previous): Confirmed launches towards Donetsk Oblast (12:07 UTC) and Sumy Oblast (12:15 UTC). Persistent KAB threat for frontline oblasts.
Aftermath of Overnight Combined Air Assault (Apr 5-6):
Targeting (RU MoD Claim, Apr 6): Claimed group strike using air/sea launched precision weapons and UAVs targeted a central Ukrainian artillery base and UAV production facilities. Claimed all targets hit. Previous RU sources cited specific airfield/repair site targets.
Targeting (Confirmed/Alleged): Confirmed strikes across multiple oblasts. Confirmed damage to Freedom TV channel office in Kyiv (Obolonskyi district), described by RU sources as blast wave damage, not direct hit (Colonelcassad / ASTRA / RBC-Ukraina).
Weapons & Interceptions (UA AF Summary): 132 air targets tracked (9x Kh-101/55SM, 8x Kalibr, 6x Iskander-M, 109x Shahed/Decoy). 53 targets intercepted (6x Kh-101/55SM, 6x Kalibr, 1x Iskander-M, 40x Shahed). 53 decoy drones reportedly lost track without impacts.
Launch Platforms (Kalibr - UA Navy Spokesperson): Confirmed one Russian frigate and one submarine participated in the Apr 6 Kalibr launches from the Black Sea.
Significant Interception Failure (Kyiv Oblast - UA AF Spokesperson Ihnat): Confirmed 5 out of 6 Iskander-M ballistic missiles launched towards Kyiv Oblast were not intercepted and impacted targets. Geolocated impact sites provided by RU sources correspond to Obolonskyi and Darnytskyi districts.
Impacts & Damage (Updated):
Kyiv City/Oblast:1 Civilian Killed (Kyiv City), 5 Civilians Injured (3 Kyiv city; 2 Kyiv Oblast). Significant non-residential infrastructure damage (Obolonskyi business center/Freedom TV office, Darnytskyi fires). Car wash/service station damage (Brovarskyi dist).
Sumy Oblast: 8 Shahed UAVs struck civil infrastructure. No casualties.
Kupyansk (Kharkiv Oblast): KAB strike on residential building caused fire, damage, 2 civilians injured (Apr 6).
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: 449 RU strikes (past 24h) on 9 settlements, 1 house damaged, no casualties (OVA).
Russian Tactical Shift (UA AF Assessment - Ihnat): Increased use of ballistic missiles noted since early 2024, exploiting interception challenges.
ISR Patterns (RU Claim): RU sources claim absence of US ISR assets during Kyiv attack suggests potential shift.
President Zelenskyy Statements (Apr 6):
Condemned escalating air attacks (>1460 KABs, ~670 Shaheds, >30 missiles past week). Stated current pressure on Russia insufficient.
Instructed Defense/Foreign Ministers to intensify contacts with partners regarding Air Defence (specifically Patriot systems) ahead of Ramstein meeting. Emphasized need for localization/licenses for potential domestic AD/missile production.
Highlighted Black Sea missile launches as reason Russia avoids unconditional ceasefire, seeking to retain capability to strike Ukrainian cities/ports. Stressed need for continued pressure (defense capabilities, sanctions, diplomacy).
Ukrainian Air Force Weekly Summary (Mar 31 - Apr 6):
Air Defence:481 air targets destroyed.
Aviation Sorties: Approx. 100 sorties; dozens of strikes on RU positions.
Drone Brigade Strikes:944 combat sorties; >35 RU personnel est. hit.
Weapon: Confirmed Iskander-M with cluster munition targeting residential area/playground.
UN Condemnation: Cited as potentially largest single killing of children since Feb 2022.
Ukrainian Strikes on Russian/Occupied Territory (RU Claims):
RU MoD (Apr 6 briefing) claims 1 JDAM bomb and 100 UA UAVs downed.
Previous RU claims detailed 7 alleged UA UAV attacks on Russian energy infrastructure (Apr 5-6).
RU source (Dva Mayora, Apr 6) reports ongoing alleged UA drone attacks causing fires in Bryansk Oblast border area (claims 25 houses burned in 24h).
II. Ground Combat Operations & Frontline Situation (UGS Update 16:00 Kyiv / 13:00 UTC Apr 6)
Overall Intensity: Remains HIGH. 75 combat engagements recorded since the start of the day (UGS 13:00 UTC). Intense fighting persists on Pokrovsk, Lyman, Toretsk, and Kursk/Sumy border axes.
Kursk/Sumy Border (Incl. Russian Territory):
UGS Report (13:00 UTC): Ukrainian forces repelled 9 Russian attacks in Kursk Oblast; 6 engagements ongoing. RU forces conducted 93 artillery/13 MLRS shellings and 5 air strikes (11 KABs) against UA positions/settlements.
RU CLAIM (Confirmed by RU MoD, Apr 6): Claim liberation of Basivka, Sumy Oblast. RU sources assert this expands bridgehead near Yunakivka and H-07 highway. Awaiting UGS confirmation.
Russian Claims (RU MoD - "Sever" Group): Claimed strikes on UA formations near Gornal, Guyevo, Oleshnya, Basovka, inflicting >170 casualties (past 24h). On Belgorod direction, claimed defeat of formations from two UA Mech Brigades, causing up to 65 UA casualties. RU "Sever" group claims using FPV drones to disrupt UA rotations/resupply near Sumy border.
Civilian Impact (RU): 731 residents evacuated from Kursk border areas since Mar 12.
RU Personnel Loss (UA Claim): Reported death of RU Akhmat drone unit commander Aleksey Abelenstev ("Amur") in Kursk Oblast.
Belgorod Border: Previous reports indicated heavy fighting near Dmitrovka/Popovka.
Kharkiv Axis:
UGS Report (13:00 UTC): Enemy conducted no active offensive actions. RU Aviation struck Berezivka, Kozacha Lopan, Dvorichanske. Previous day: 1 RU attack repelled near Kamyanka.
RU Claim (Kotsnews, Apr 6): Published combat footage allegedly from Vovchansk direction.
Kupyansk Axis:
UGS Report (13:00 UTC): Russian forces attacked UA positions twice near Pishchane; engagements ongoing. Previous day: 6 attacks repelled.
RU Claim (Slyvochny Kapriz, Apr 6): Alleged failed UA motorized attack near Kalynove, claimed destruction of 2 abandoned UA vehicles by FPV drones.
Lyman Axis:High intensity.
UGS Report (13:00 UTC): Russian forces conducted 11 attacks near Novoyehorivka, Nove, Kolodyazi, Yampolivka, and towards Novomykhailivka, Torske. 5 engagements ongoing. Previous day: 26 attacks repelled.
RU Claims (Advances - Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 6): Claimed tactical advances: +300m from Ivanivka towards Zelena Dolyna; +200m towards Nove; +350m South from Yampolivka towards Torske. Corroborates previous RU claims near Makiivka/Ivanivka/Nove.
Russian Claims (RU MoD - "West" Group): Claim improved forward edge positions, inflicted defeat on UA Mech Bde and 2x TDF Bdes, causing up to 230 UA casualties, destroying 3x MaxxPro, 4 pickups, 4 arty pieces.
Siversk Axis:
UGS Report (13:00 UTC): Enemy conducted no active offensive actions. Previous day: 5 attacks repelled.
Kramatorsk Axis (incl. Chasiv Yar):
UGS Report (13:00 UTC): Enemy conducted no active offensive actions. Previous day: 3 attacks repelled.
RU CLAIM (Significant - Needs Verification): Previous RU sources claimed destruction of UA grouping in Zakhidnyi microdistrict of Chasiv Yar.
Toretsk Axis:High intensity.
UGS Report (13:00 UTC): UA forces repelled 7 Russian assaults near Dachne, Dyliivka, Toretsk, Leonidivka; 3 engagements ongoing. Previous day: 20 attacks repelled. RU claims capture of Aleksandropol (Rozivka)/Panteleimonivka. DeepState previously reported RU advance within Toretsk city.
Russian Claims (RU MoD - "South" Group): Claim improved tactical position, inflicted defeat on formations of 5 UA Mech/Airmobile/Assault Bdes, causing up to 280 UA casualties, destroying 2 AFVs, 17 vehicles, 3 arty pieces (incl. M777).
Pokrovsk Axis:Highest intensity.
UGS Report (13:00 UTC): Russian forces made 29 attempts to dislodge UA units near Sukha Balka, Kalynove, Udachne, Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Kotliarivka, Preobrazhenka, Andriivka, Bohdanivka. 21 attacks repelled, engagements ongoing. UA forces holding the line. RU aviation struck Berestok, Pokrovsk. Previous day: 75 attacks stopped.
Russian Claims (RU MoD - "Center" Group): Claim continued advance into enemy defense depth, inflicted defeat on 3 UA Mech/Airborne formations, causing up to 430 UA casualties, destroying 7 AFVs, 1 pickup, 5 arty pieces. Previous RU claims: tactical success in Udachne; advancing in Lysovka, towards Novoolexandrivka, W of Troitske, near Bohdanivka.
UA Activity: UA "Spartan" Brigade (NGU) reports ongoing defense. UA 60th Mech Bde active in drone strikes.
Novopavlivsk / South Donetsk Axis: Moderate to High intensity.
UGS Report (13:00 UTC): UA forces continue to hold back enemy near Rozlyv, Kostiantynopil; 3 attacks ongoing, 1 assault attempt already stopped. Previous day: 8 assaults repelled.
RU Advance Claim (Significant - Slyvochny Kapriz, Apr 6): Claimed 1.5 km advance W along Bohdanivka - Andriivka line (SW of Kurakhove).
RU Advance Claims (Voin DV, Apr 6): Claim fierce fighting near Rozlyv, cleared 3 tree lines, captured key height. Claim advances E/SE of Bohatyr (1km deep x 1.2km wide / 0.9km x 1km). Claim capture of heights near Bohatyr opens path to encircle UA positions. Fighting near Shevchenko/Volne Pole. Claimed UA T-62 destroyed near Marfopil.
Russian Claims (RU MoD - "Vostok" Group): Claim occupied more advantageous lines/positions, inflicted defeat on formations of 4 UA Mech/DShV/Airmobile/Mountain Assault Bdes, causing over 130 UA casualties, destroying 1 tank, 4 vehicles, 1 REM vehicle, 3 arty pieces (incl. 1x Archer SPG).
UA Activity: 46th Airmobile Bde engaged. 44th Artillery Bde reports successful strikes (RU Msta-B, D-30, ammo, personnel).
Huliaipole Axis:
UGS Report (13:00 UTC): UA forces repelled 2 attacks near Pryvilne. Previous day: 1 attack repelled. Positional fighting.
Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia): Moderate intensity.
UGS Report (13:00 UTC): UA forces repelled 3 Russian attacks towards Shcherbaky, Kamyanske. RU aviation (KABs) struck Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, Novoandriivka. Previous day: 4 attacks repelled. DeepState previously reported RU advance in Mali Shcherbaky. RU claims capture of Lobkove; successes near Shcherbaky/Stepove.
Prydniprovsky Axis (Kherson - Left Bank):
UGS Report (13:00 UTC): Enemy conducted no active offensive actions. Previous day: 2 attacks repelled. Ukrainian positions maintained.
Russian Claims (RU MoD - "Dnepr" Group): Claim occupied more advantageous lines/positions, inflicted defeat on formations of UA Mountain Assault/Coastal Defense Bdes, causing over 65 UA casualties, destroying 1 IFV, 3 vehicles, 4 EW stations, 1 ammo depot. Previous RU assessment (Dva Mayora): Claim UA focus on FPV/mining drones from Kherson, repelling UA crossing attempts, allege UA boat shortages.
Unmanned Ground Systems (UGS / NRK):
RU Assessment (Z Komitet, Apr 6): Russian sources provide detailed analysis and infographics on Ukrainian development and deployment of various UGS types (logistics, assault/turreted, kamikaze, mining, demining, evacuation). Note formation of dedicated UGS companies/staff elements within numerous UA brigades (list provided). Highlight Brave1 cluster role and focus areas (EW-resistant nav, autonomous targeting, endurance, protection). Acknowledge UGS potential to compensate for logistics/personnel shortages but note effectiveness issues (comms, mobility). Provide RU assessment ratings for UA UGS effectiveness by type (Logistics: 5.5/10, Turreted: 3/10, Kamikaze: 5.5/10, Demining: 4.5/5, Evac: 3/5, Special Equipment Transport: 3.5/5).
III. Other Noteworthy Information
Hybrid Threats / Regional Security:
Poland-Belarus Border: Polish MoD reports intensifying situation, migrant aggression. Assessed as Belarus/Russia-driven pressure.
UK Nuclear Submarine Surveillance: Reports (UA/UK Media) indicate discovery of Russian sensors near UK coast, potentially used to track Vanguard-class submarines. UK MoD investigating, potential threat to national security cited.
NATO Air Posture (RU Assessment): RU sources note increased NATO tactical air presence on eastern flank, assessed as escalation/support for UA.
German Infrastructure Military Use: Germany mandates radar on offshore platforms/wind turbines for surveillance, data feeds military. RU source frames as potential future military use/blockade preparation.
Russian Capabilities & Issues:
Personnel/Morale/Corruption: Case reported (Butusov Plus, Apr 6) of relative of missing RU soldier (Lt. Trubitsin, 433rd MotRfl Rgt) alleging commander extorted 520,000 RUB for non-existent body armor/radios before soldier went missing on combat mission. Highlights potential corruption/supply issues impacting troops. Previous report of wounded soldier pressured to return to front. Reported death of RU Akhmat drone commander.
Logistics: Persistent RU reliance on crowdfunding noted (e.g., drone detectors, medic supplies, radio batteries).
Force Generation: RU spring 2025 conscription aims for 160,000 personnel.
Air Defence: Confirmed failure to intercept 5 of 6 Iskander-M targeting Kyiv Oblast (Apr 5-6).
Information Environment: Contrasting narratives persist regarding ground gains (esp. Basivka), strike targets/casualties (Kyiv, Kryvyi Rih), and equipment losses. RU MoD Apr 6 briefing claims high UA losses across sectors and destruction of specific Western systems (Archer, M777, MaxxPro, JDAM). RU sources heavily promoting analysis of UA Unmanned Ground Systems development.
Humanitarian: Ukrainian Ombudsman reports return of 45 Ukrainians from occupied territories/Russia/Belarus. Ongoing rescue/cleanup after Kyiv strikes. Water infrastructure damage in occupied Donetsk.
Diplomatic / International:
Russian negotiator Dmitriev repeats claim of potential new US-Russia contacts next week, expresses "cautious optimism" (RU Sources via RBC-Ukraina).
Zelenskyy confirms instructions to activate partner contacts re: Air Defence and potential foreign contingents.
Iran reported to place military on high alert due to US threats (Reuters via TASS).
Rutube access reportedly blocked in Turkey (TASS).
