Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 6, 2025, 12:31 UTC
I. Major Developments & Air/Missile Activity
Ongoing Air Threats (12:15 UTC): Ukrainian Air Force reports activity of Russian tactical aviation on the eastern and northeastern fronts.
KAB Launches: Confirmed launches of KABs towards Donetsk Oblast (12:07 UTC) and Sumy Oblast (12:15 UTC).
General Threat: Threat of air-launched weapons persists for frontline oblasts.
Aftermath of Overnight Combined Air Assault (Apr 5-6):
Targeting: Confirmed strikes across multiple oblasts including Kyiv, Cherkasy, Khmelnytskyi, Sumy, Zhytomyr, Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, and Zaporizhzhia. Russian MoD claimed specific targeting of a central Ukrainian artillery base, UAV production facilities, airfield infrastructure (Starokostiantyniv, Ozerne, Uman cited by RU sources), and repair sites. Other RU sources cited additional targets (Pavlohrad, Zolotonosha, Boryspil, Obukhiv).
Weapons & Interceptions (UA AF Summary): 132 air targets tracked (9x Kh-101/55SM, 8x Kalibr, 6x Iskander-M, 109x Shahed/Decoy). 53 targets intercepted (6x Kh-101/55SM, 6x Kalibr, 1x Iskander-M, 40x Shahed). 53 decoy drones reportedly lost track without impacts.
Significant Interception Failure (Kyiv Oblast - UA AF Spokesperson Ihnat): Confirmed 5 out of 6 Iskander-M ballistic missiles launched towards Kyiv Oblast were not intercepted and impacted targets.
Impacts & Damage (Updated):
Kyiv City/Oblast:
Casualties:1 Civilian Killed (Kyiv City), 5 Civilians Injured (3 in Kyiv city; 2 in Kyiv Oblast - Fastivskyi/Brovarskyi districts).
Damage: Significant damage to non-residential infrastructure. Ongoing clearing of rubble and damaged structures in Obolonskyi district (business center). Fires/destruction reported in Darnytskyi district. Damage to car wash/service station destroying/damaging 10 vehicles in Brovarskyi district. OGP investigating as war crime. Freedom TV channel office and vehicles confirmed damaged/destroyed in Obolonskyi district strike (RU claim/UA media confirmation). Police bodycam footage released showing initial response and rescue efforts.
Kupyansk (Kharkiv Oblast): KAB strike on 9-story residential building caused fire, structural damage, 2 civilians injured (Apr 6).
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: OVA reported 449 RU strikes (past 24h) on 9 settlements, 1 house damaged, no casualties.
Russian Tactical Shift (UA AF Assessment - Ihnat): Increased use of ballistic missiles noted since early 2024, exploiting interception challenges (requires Patriot/equivalent). Ongoing modification of missiles/drones observed.
ISR Patterns (RU Claim): Russian sources claim US ISR aircraft (E-3, KC-135) were absent during the Apr 6 Kyiv attack, suggesting a potential shift in NATO support patterns or operational change by the US.
President Zelenskyy Statement (Apr 6): Condemned escalating air attacks (>1460 KABs, ~670 Shaheds, >30 missiles in past week). Stated current pressure on Russia is insufficient.
Ukrainian Air Force Weekly Summary (Mar 31 - Apr 6):
Air Defence:481 air targets destroyed (incl. ballistic/cruise missiles, Shaheds, recon/other UAVs).
Aviation Sorties: Approx. 100 sorties conducted (fighter cover, strike/support); dozens of strikes on RU CPs, logistics, personnel/equipment.
"Horizon Group" claimed downing of 8 RU reconnaissance UAVs (Supercam, Zala, Orlan) using FPV drones (Apr 6).
UA 63rd Brigade (41st Div) reported saving a 2S1 Akatsiya SPG under attack by 17 RU drones and artillery, successfully shooting down 7 drones using small arms and shotguns before evacuating the SPG. Highlights adaptability and resilience in counter-drone defense.
Casualties: Final figures: 19 KIA (incl. 9 children), 75 WIA (incl. 11 children). National/local mourning observed.
Weapon: UGS confirmed Iskander-M with cluster munition targeting residential area/playground.
Narrative: Russian claims of targeting a military meeting actively countered by UA officials. Retaliatory strikes by UA units confirmed (e.g., 151st Mech Bde). Kyiv Military Admin expressed solidarity with Kryvyi Rih (Apr 6).
Ukrainian Strikes on Russian Territory (RU Claims):
RU sources (WarGonzo) detail 7 alleged UA UAV attacks on Russian energy infrastructure (Apr 5-6): Crimea (HV line Ostrovskaya-Kovilne), Bryansk (Khvoschevskaya energy object, 2x Bryanskenergo HV lines - causing outage in Sevsky district), Rostov (Rostovskaya HV line), Voronezh (2x Gazprom gas distribution objects). Operativnyi ZSU disputes RU transparency.
RU MoD claims UA attacks on energy facilities persist despite alleged agreements.
II. Ground Combat Operations & Frontline Situation
Overall Intensity: Combat intensity remains HIGH. 178 combat engagements recorded (UGS, 24h prior to Apr 6 morning). Intense fighting persists on Pokrovsk, Lyman, Toretsk, and Kursk/Sumy border axes.
Kursk/Sumy Border (Incl. Russian Territory):
High intensity. UA forces repelled 17 Russian attacks in Kursk Oblast (UGS, Apr 5-6).
RU CLAIM (Confirmed by RU MoD, Apr 6): Claim liberation of Basivka, Sumy Oblast. RU sources (TASS, Kots, Rogov, Poddubny, Colonelcassad) assert this expands the RU bridgehead south of Novenkoye (Yunakivka direction) and brings forces closer to the Yunakivka supply route (specifically H-07 highway) allegedly used by UA forces operating in Kursk Oblast.
Russian Claims: Fighting continues for Guevo and Oleshnia (Kursk Obl.) with RU forces attempting advances. RU MoD claims strikes on multiple UA brigades near Gornal, Guyevo, Oleshnya, Basovka, inflicting >170 casualties, destroying vehicles/UAV CPs/ammo depot (past 24h).
Territorial Assessment (RU Source): Claims UA bridgehead in Kursk Oblast reduced to 95.8 km²; claims RU forces control 47.2 km² of adjacent Sumy Oblast.
Civilian Impact:731 residents evacuated from Kursk border areas since Mar 12 (RU MCHS report/video).
RU Claimed Losses: RU MoD repeats cumulative claim of >72,320 UA personnel losses on Kursk direction (Apr 6).
Belgorod Border: Heavy fighting near Dmitrovka/Popovka. RU claims nearing blockade of Demidovka.
Kharkiv Axis:1 Russian attack repelled near Kamyanka (UGS, Apr 5-6).
Kupyansk Axis:6 Russian attacks repelled near Zahryzove, Petropavlivka, towards Nova Kruhliakivka (UGS, Apr 5-6). RU sources claim advances S of Kamianka.
RU CLAIM (Slyvochny Kapriz, Apr 6): Alleged failed UA motorized attack towards RU positions near Kalynove. Claim subsequent destruction of 2 abandoned UA armored vehicles by RU FPV drones near Line of Contact (coordinates provided: 49.7734, 37.60599).
Lyman Axis:High intensity. 26 Russian attacks repelled near Hrekivka, Nove, Katerynivka, towards Novomykhailivka, Torske, Zelena Dolyna (UGS, Apr 5-6). RU claims advances W of Balka Zhuravka/Novoliubivka, towards Katerynivka, expanding control near Makiivka/Ivanivka/Nove.
Siversk Axis:5 Russian attacks repelled near Verkhnokamyanske, towards Ivano-Daryivka, Vyimka (UGS, Apr 5-6).
Pokrovsk Axis:Highest intensity. 75 Russian attacks stopped across numerous settlements and directions (UGS, Apr 5-6).
Russian Claims: Tactical success claimed in Udachne; advancing in Lysovka (corroborated by RU map update); advancing towards Novoolexandrivka, W of Troitske, near Bohdanivka. RU claims defeat of UA 'Omega' unit.
UA Activity: UA "Spartan" Brigade (NGU) reports ongoing effective defense. UA 60th Mech Bde (3rd Mech Bn) active in drone strikes against RU personnel.
Novopavlivsk / South Donetsk Axis: Moderate intensity. 8 Russian assaults repelled towards Rozlyv, Kostiantynopil (UGS, Apr 5-6).
RU Advance Claim (Significant - Slyvochny Kapriz, Apr 6): Claimed 1.5 km advance W along Bohdanivka - Andriivka line (SW of Kurakhove, near coordinates 48.047308, 37.044262). Claimed after motorized assault involving vehicle loss, dismount, and subsequent shelling of occupied positions.
Other RU claims: Advancing towards Bogatyr and Komar; fighting near Oleksiivka and Volne Pole/Vesele/Rozlyv. Expanded control claimed near Kotlyarivka, Bogatyr, Kostiantynopil. Tactical success near Burlatske.
UA Activity:46th Separate Airmobile Brigade confirmed redeployed from Zaporizhzhia, engaged in heavy fighting (Heorhiivka, Maksymilianivka, Hostre, Kurakhove). UA 44th Artillery Brigade reports successful strikes destroying RU Msta-B, D-30 howitzers, ammo depots, personnel (RBC-Ukraina video, Apr 6).
Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia): Moderate intensity. 4 Russian attacks repelled near Stepove, Mali Shcherbaky, Kamyanske (UGS, Apr 5-6). DeepState previously reported RU advance in Mali Shcherbaky. RU claims capture of Lobkove; successes near Shcherbaky/Stepove; advancing near Kamyanske. Claimed destruction of 2 Starlink terminals and 1 repeater near Huliaipole.
Poland-Belarus Border: Polish MoD reports intensifying situation with increased migrant aggression (~300 attempts Apr 5 night). Assessed as Belarus/Russia-driven pressure.
UK Nuclear Submarine Surveillance (UA Source Claim): UK MoD suspects Russian oligarch yachts may have deployed sensors near UK coast to track Vanguard-class submarines (The Sunday Times via Operativnyi ZSU). Russian sensors reportedly found near UK coast.
NATO Air Posture (RU Assessment): RU sources note increased NATO tactical air presence on the eastern flank (UK Typhoons in Poland, RO F-16s in Lithuania), totaling >36 aircraft excluding potential UA assets in Poland/Romania. Assessed by RU as escalation and potential support for UA UAV defense.
US Neo-Nazi Group Link (Report): Allegations US-based "The Base" (leader in St. Petersburg) paying for terror attacks in Ukraine (The Guardian).
Russian Capabilities & Issues:
Personnel/Morale: Case reported of wounded young RU soldier (18 y.o., with Ilizarov apparatus) pressured by command (6th Tank Regt, MU 93992) to return to unit despite severe injury and lack of funds/pay (Mobilizatsiya TG channel). Highlights potential issues with medical care, command practices, morale.
Logistics: Persistent RU reliance on crowdfunding/volunteers for basic equipment noted (e.g., appeal for Azart radio batteries by "Dnevnik Desantnika").
Force Generation: Russian spring 2025 conscription aims for 160,000 personnel, reported as the largest call-up since 2011 (RU media).
Air Defence: Confirmed failure to intercept 5 of 6 Iskander-M ballistic missiles targeting Kyiv Oblast (Apr 5-6).
Information Environment:
Dominant Russian Narrative: Focus on liberation of Basivka (Sumy) and its strategic implications (Yunakivka/H-07 supply route); claimed destruction of UA group in Chasiv Yar; continued advances/high UA losses (esp. Kursk front >72,320 claim); successful strikes on military targets (arty base/UAV production); justification of Kryvyi Rih strike; portraying UA as targeting RU energy infrastructure; highlighting alleged Israeli war crimes (Gaza).
Ukrainian Narrative: Emphasis on repelling most ground attacks; successful UA strikes (44th Arty Bde, 17th Tank Bde, 151st Mech Bde, 60th Mech Bde, Phoenix RUbPAK); counter-drone successes (63rd Bde); highlighting RU strikes on civilian infrastructure (Kyiv business center/Freedom TV, Kryvyi Rih playground); RU air defence failures (Iskander interception); high RU air asset losses (weekly summary); return of citizens from occupation. Solidarity messages (Kyiv for Kryvyi Rih). Resilience footage (police response in Kyiv).
Humanitarian: Ukrainian Ombudsman reports return of 45 Ukrainians from occupied territories/Russia/Belarus. Case highlighted of family whose father was allegedly abducted, tortured, killed under occupation. Ongoing rescue/cleanup after Kyiv strikes.
Diplomatic / International:
Russian negotiator Dmitriev claims new US-Russia contacts expected next week, expresses "cautious optimism," alleges US pressure to disrupt talks (RU Sources).
Ongoing discussion about potential foreign troop deployment (France mentioned by Zelenskyy).
RU political figure Tymoshenko quoted in RU media claiming an "international plan" exists to end the war by end of May, followed by a "reset" of UA government (requires significant verification, likely political maneuvering/speculation).
