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Historical Intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing

Report Time
2025-04-06 09:32:19Z
10 months ago
Previous (2025-04-06 09:02:40Z)

Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 6, 2025, 09:31 UTC

I. Major Developments & Air/Missile Activity

  • Overnight Combined Air Assault (Apr 5-6) Aftermath:
    • Targeting: Regions confirmed targeted included Kyiv, Cherkasy, Khmelnytskyi, Sumy, Kharkiv, and Mykolaiv Oblasts.
    • Weapons & Interceptions (Summary - UA AF): 132 air targets tracked (9x Kh-101/55SM, 8x Kalibr, 6x Iskander-M, 109x Shahed/Decoy). 53 targets intercepted (6x Kh-101/55SM, 6x Kalibr, 1x Iskander-M, 40x Shahed). 53 decoy drones lost track without reported impacts.
    • Impacts & Damage (Updated):
      • Kyiv City/Oblast: Ballistic missile attack.
        • Casualties: 1 Civilian Killed, 3 Civilians Injured.
        • Damage: Fires/destruction in non-residential buildings (Darnytskyi); large fire and partial collapse (3rd-5th floors) of a 5-story business center (Obolonskyi); fires and damage (Solomianskyi). Confirmed damage to offices of Ukrainian and international media outlets (FREEДОМ, Dim, UATV, The Gaze) located in one of the affected business centers (UA sources). OGP investigating as war crime.
      • Sumy Oblast: 8 Shahed UAVs struck civil/industrial infrastructure.
      • Mykolaiv Oblast: Debris from 7 downed Shaheds injured 4 civilians and damaged houses/vehicles.
      • Khmelnytskyi Oblast: 1 missile downed, 1 civilian woman injured, building/vehicle damage.
      • Cherkasy & Kharkiv Oblasts: Targeted; details pending.
  • President Zelenskyy Statement Summary (Apr 6): Condemned escalating Russian air terror. Cited >1460 KABs, ~670 Shaheds, >30 missiles (over 20 overnight Apr 5-6) launched in the past week. Stated current pressure on Russia is insufficient.
  • Ukrainian Air Force Weekly Summary (Mar 31 - Apr 6):
    • Air Defence: 481 air targets destroyed: 6x Kh-101/55SM, 6x Kalibr, 1x Iskander-M, 2x Kh-59/69, 257 Shahed UAVs, 106 reconnaissance UAVs, 103 other UAVs.
    • Aviation Sorties: Approx. 100 sorties conducted ( >50 fighter cover, ~30 ground attack/support). Dozens of air strikes hit RU CPs, logistics, personnel/equipment concentrations.
    • Drone Brigade Strikes: 944 combat sorties (837 recon, 107 strike/FPV). Estimated RU losses: >35 personnel, 6 shelters, 4 vehicles.
  • Ongoing Threats (as of 09:31 UTC Apr 6):
    • UAV Threat: Active threat reported for Sumy Oblast (UA AF, 09:26 UTC), UAV approaching Sumy city from SE.
    • Guided Air Bombs (KABs): Threat remains high along frontline areas. Earlier launches targeted Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts (UA AF 08:29 UTC).
    • Tactical Aviation: Threat active for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (UA AF 07:59 UTC).
  • Recent Counter-UAV Successes (UA Claim): "Horizon Group" reportedly downed 8 Russian reconnaissance UAVs (4x Supercam, 2x Zala, 2x Orlan) using FPV drones (Sternenko, Apr 6).
  • Kryvyi Rih Attack Aftermath (Apr 4):
    • Casualties Updated (Apr 6): Total injured 75 civilians (37 hospitalized, 19 serious). Confirmed 19 KIA (incl. 9 children). (Operativnyi ZSU / DeepState).
    • Mourning: National day of mourning observed (Apr 6). Flags lowered in Kyiv. (RBC-Ukraina / DeepState).
    • Attribution/Narrative: UA sources maintain Iskander-M strike caused casualties. Russian narratives blaming UA AD are actively countered. (Operativnyi ZSU / DeepState).
  • Russian Air Defense / Encounters:
    • RU MoD claim: 11 UA UAVs downed over Rostov (8), Kursk (2), Belgorod (1) Oblasts overnight Apr 5-6 (Colonelcassad).
    • NATO F-16 / RU Tu-134UBL visual identification reported over water (Fighterbomber, Apr 6).

II. Ground Combat Operations & Frontline Situation (Based on UGS Apr 6 morning report & recent claims)

  • Overall Intensity: Combat intensity remains HIGH. 178 combat engagements recorded in the past 24 hours (UGS).
  • Assessment Trend (UK Intel via Butusov Plus): Russian offensive effectiveness/gains show declining trend since Nov 2024 peak; UA tactical counterattacks increasing.
  • Kursk/Sumy Border (Incl. Russian Territory):
    • High intensity. UA forces repelled 17 Russian attacks in Kursk Oblast (UGS, past 24h).
    • Russian Claims (WarGonzo/Rybar/Colonelcassad): Expanded control claimed in Guevo (Kursk Obl.), pushing towards Oleshnia; fighting within Sumy Oblast territory.
    • Territorial Assessment (RU Source - Slivochniy Kapriz, Apr 6): Claims UA bridgehead in Kursk Oblast reduced to 95.8 km² (from 504 km² on Mar 6). Claims RU forces control 47.2 km² of adjacent Sumy Oblast.
    • Russian Claim (TASS, Apr 6): Alleged "colossal losses" for UA units in Vodolahy, Sumy Oblast. (Needs verification).
    • Russian allegations of UA attacks/atrocities continue.
  • Belgorod Border: Heavy fighting near Dmitrovka/Popovka. RU claims nearing blockade of Demidovka, hitting UA forces with drones. Claimed destruction of UA "Baba Yaga" drone near Demidovka (Dnevnik Desantnika).
  • Kharkiv Axis (OTU Kharkiv): Complex situation. 1 Russian attack repelled near Kamyanka (UGS, past 24h / Liveuamap). UA claims RU losses (past 24h): 57 personnel (17 KIA), 68 equipment units.
  • Kupyansk Axis: 6 Russian attacks repelled near Petropavlivka, Zahryzove, Nova Kruhlyakivka (UGS, past 24h / Liveuamap). Russian sources claim advances S of Kamianka (RVvoenkor). RU channels show kamikaze robot/drone strikes (Dva Mayora).
  • Lyman Axis: High intensity. 26 Russian attacks repelled near Novoyehorivka, Novolubivka, Hrekivka, Nove, Katerynivka, towards Zelena Dolyna (UGS, past 24h / Liveuamap). Russian sources claim advances W of Balka Zhuravka/Novoliubivka (RVvoenkor) and from Ivanivka towards Katerynivka (Rybar). RU map (Colonelcassad/z_arhiv, Apr 5) shows claimed advances near Novoliubivka. UA PzH 2000 SPG destruction near Lipove confirmed geolocated (>6km from LBS).
  • Siversk Axis: 5 Russian attacks repelled near Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamyanske (UGS, past 24h / Liveuamap).
  • Kramatorsk Axis (incl. Chasiv Yar): 3 Russian attacks repelled near Chasiv Yar, Hryhorivka (UGS, past 24h / Liveuamap).
  • Toretsk Axis: High intensity. 20 Russian attacks repelled near Kurdumivka, Toretsk, Dachne, Leonidivka, Druzhba (UGS, past 24h / Liveuamap). Russian sources claim capture of Aleksandropol (Rozivka)/Panteleimonivka and fighting for Tarasivka/Zelene Pole (Rybar).
  • Pokrovsk Axis: Highest intensity. 75 Russian attacks stopped near Kotlyarivka, Valentynivka, Oleksandropil, Tarasivka, Lysivka, Shevchenko, Kotlyne, Udachne, Uspenivka, Novooleksandrivka, Bohdanivka (UGS, past 24h / Liveuamap).
    • Russian Claims (WarGonzo/Rybar/Colonelcassad): Tactical success in Udachne; repelled UA counterattacks in Kotlyne; fighting near Shevchenko; advancing in Lysovka (claim corroborated by Colonelcassad map update, Apr 6). RU FPV drone strikes claimed (Arkhangel Spetsnaza).
  • Novopavlivsk / South Donetsk Axis: Moderate intensity. 8 Russian attacks repelled near Rozlyv, Kostyantynopil, Burlatske (UGS, past 24h / Liveuamap). Russian forces reportedly advancing towards Bogatyr (WarGonzo); fighting continues for Oleksiivka and near Volne Pole/Vesele/South of Rozlyv (Rybar). Previous RU claims (Apr 5) of advances near Andriivka, Bohatyr, Burlatske.
  • Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia): Moderate intensity. 4 Russian attacks repelled near Stepove, Mali Scherbaky and towards Mala Tokmachka, Novoandriyivka (UGS, past 24h / Liveuamap). Russian sources claim capture of Lobkove, successes near Shcherbaky/Stepove, advancing near Kamyanske. UA counterattack near Lobkove reportedly repelled (WarGonzo). Russian drone operators claim destruction of 2 Starlink terminals and 1 repeater near Huliaipole (Voin DV, Apr 6).
  • Huliaipole Axis: 1 Russian attack repelled near Rivnopil (UGS, past 24h / Liveuamap).
  • Prydniprovsky Axis (Kherson - Left Bank): Low ground assault intensity. 2 Russian attacks repelled (UGS, past 24h / Liveuamap & SDF).

III. Other Noteworthy Information

  • Ukrainian Training & Retaliation: OUV "Tavria" tank training photos; 18-24 y.o. recruit training video shown. 63rd Mech Bde released video of retaliatory strikes "for Kryvyi Rih" (Vilkul / 503 Marine Battalion video). UA drone unit "BULAVA" (OPBde) video highlights need for drone saturation (Butusov Plus).
  • Russian Capabilities & Issues:
    • Persistent crowdfunding appeals indicate ongoing equipment needs.
    • Video evidence of RU FPV drone attacks continues (ZONA SVO, Colonelcassad, Starshe Eddy).
    • Military Automobile Inspection units shown conducting road security, convoy escorts, document checks, and counter-sabotage operations in occupied areas (RU MoD).
    • Reported internal issues: Air Defense problems, social tensions, logistical challenges (soldier's funeral).
  • Information Environment:
    • UA OGP investigating Kyiv attack as war crime, highlighting damage to media offices.
    • Russian sources frame Kyiv/Sumy strikes as targeting military/industrial facilities; claim advances in Lysovka/Guevo; continue atrocity narratives (Kursk border); TASS claims high UA losses in Vodolahy (Sumy).
    • Polish advisor warns US against recognizing RU control over occupied territories (RBC-Ukraina).
    • UA channels actively counter RU narratives on Kryvyi Rih casualties.
  • Communications Security: Russian claim of destroying 2 Starlink terminals and a repeater near Huliaipole (Voin DV) indicates ongoing efforts to degrade UA C2 capabilities.
  • Logistics/Fundraising: Mutual reliance on volunteer fundraising apparent (Shtirlits / RU sources). Russian Military Auto Inspection activities highlight focus on securing logistics routes.
Previous (2025-04-06 09:02:40Z)

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