Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 6, 2025, 08:31 UTC

I. Major Developments & Air/Missile Activity

• Overnight Combined Air Assault (Resolved): Large-scale Russian attack targeting Kyiv, Cherkasy, Khmelnytskyi, Sumy, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv Oblasts.
  • Weapons Used (UA AF): 132 air targets detected: 9x Kh-101/55SM (Tu-95MS, Saratov Obl.), 8x Kalibr (Black Sea), 6x Iskander-M (Bryansk Obl.), 109x Shahed-type UAVs & decoy drones (RU/Crimea).
  • Interceptions (UA AF, 10:00 Local / 07:00 UTC): 53 targets intercepted:
    • Missiles: 13 (6x Kh-101/55SM, 6x Kalibr, 1x Iskander-M).
    • UAVs: 40 Shahed-type.
    • Decoys: 53 decoy drones lost track without impact.
  • Impacted Regions (Confirmed Damage/Casualties): Kyiv city/oblast, Sumy Oblast, Kharkiv Oblast, Khmelnytskyi Oblast, Cherkasy Oblast, Mykolaiv Oblast.
• Kyiv Attack Aftermath:
  • Casualties (KMVA/OGP/Mayor): 1 Civilian Killed (male, found outside near explosion epicenter, Darnytskyi district), 3 Civilians Injured (2 hospitalized).
  • Damage (KMVA/OGP/DSNS Visuals):
    • Darnytskyi District: Fire in non-residential building; separate debris impact caused destruction/fire at another building; vehicles damaged. Body found near lyceum territory.
    • Obolonskyi District: Large fire (1500 sq m) at furniture workshop; partial collapse (3rd-5th floors) of a 5-story business center; 13 cars damaged.
    • Solomianskyi District: Debris caused fires in open territory; warehouse facade fire; damage to windows in commercial kiosks.
  • Investigation: OGP initiated war crime investigation (Art. 438 CCU). SBU conducting investigation.
  • RU Perspective (Colonelcassad): Posts visuals claiming hits on production buildings/warehouses.
• Sumy Shahed Attack: 8 Shaheds confirmed hit civil/industrial infrastructure (admin/warehouse buildings, vehicle damage). No casualties reported. Significant fire damage visible in photos/videos (ASTRA).
• Mykolaiv Drone Attack: Debris from 7 downed Shaheds caused damage. 4 civilians injured. 13 private houses, 1 vehicle damaged; fires in 2 houses extinguished (UA Southern Forces).
• Khmelnytskyi Attack Aftermath: 1 missile downed. 1 civilian woman injured. Damage to residential building, summer kitchen, two utility buildings, three cars (Khmelnytskyi OVA via Operativnyi ZSU).
• Ongoing Threats (as of 08:31 UTC):
  • Guided Air Bombs (KABs): Repeat launches reported by UA AF (08:29 UTC) towards Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts. Persistent threat remains high.
  • Tactical Aviation: Threat active for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (UA AF 07:59 UTC).
  • Reconnaissance UAVs: Previously reported RU recon drone activity towards Sumy and Kharkiv cities (UA AF 07:19, 07:31 UTC).
• Russian Air Defense Claims (Overnight): RU MoD claimed 11 UA UAVs downed over Rostov (8), Kursk (2), Belgorod (1) Oblasts (Colonelcassad).
• Air Encounter: Video released showing NATO F-16 performing visual identification/escort of Russian Tu-134UBL aircraft over water (location unspecified) (Fighterbomber).

II. Ground Combat Operations & Frontline Situation

• Overall Intensity: Remains HIGH, particularly on the Eastern Front. 178 combat engagements reported in the previous 24 hours (UGS). UK intelligence assessment suggests a trend of declining effectiveness/territorial gains for Russian offensive operations since Nov 2024 peak, despite maintained intensity, alongside increasing UA tactical counterattacks (Butusov Plus).
• Kursk/Sumy Border: High intensity (17 attacks repelled in Kursk Oblast - UGS). RU claims expanded control in Guevo, pushing towards Oleshnia; fighting reported inside Sumy Oblast territory (WarGonzo/Rybar). RU sources allege repeated UA attacks on civilians in Bryansk Oblast border villages, showing damaged houses (Dva Mayora). RU sources (Basurin) continue to allege UA atrocities against civilians in Kursk Oblast border areas, claiming discovery of bodies and referencing >700 criminal cases opened by RU SK.
• Belgorod Border: Heavy fighting near Dmitrovka/Popovka. RU claims near-blockade of Demidovka, hitting withdrawing UA forces with drones (Dnevnik Desantnika). RU forces claim destruction of UA heavy drone ("Baba Yaga") used for mining near Demidovka, citing terrain challenges (dense woods, UA height advantage) (Dnevnik Desantnika video/maps).
• Kharkiv Axis (OTU Kharkiv): Situation complex. 1 RU attack repelled near Kamyanka (past 24h). RU losses claimed (past 24h): 57 personnel (17 KIA), 68 OVT units (1 tank, 3 arty, 14 vehicles, 5 spec equip, 2 EW, 43 UAVs). 66 RU shelters, 2 ammo depots destroyed.
• Kupyansk Axis: 6 attacks repelled (UGS). RU claims advance S. outskirts of Kamianka (RVvoenkor). RU sources show video of kamikaze robot strikes and drone strikes destroying UA positions (Dva Mayora).
• Lyman Axis: High Intensity. 26 attacks repelled (UGS). RU claims advances W of Balka Zhuravka/Novoliubivka (RVvoenkor) and from Ivanivka towards Katerynivka (Rybar). RU claims confirmed destruction of UA PzH 2000 SPG near Lipove (approx. 49.158752, 37.781447) via FPV drone >6km from LBS (Slevochny Kapriz video/map; Colonelcassad maps).
• Toretsk Axis: High Intensity. 20 attacks repelled (UGS). RU claims capture of Aleksandropol (Rozivka) / Panteleimonivka; fighting for Tarasivka / Zelene Pole (Rybar).
• Pokrovsk Axis: Highest Intensity. 75 attacks stopped (UGS). RU claims tactical success in Udachne, repelled UA counterattacks in Kotlyne, fighting near Shevchenko (WarGonzo). RU advancing in Lysovka (Rybar). Video claiming RU self-elimination under drone threat circulated (Butusov Plus). RU FPV drone strike on UA soldier claimed (Arkhangel Spetsnaza).
• Novopavlivsk / South Donetsk Axis: Moderate intensity. 8 attacks repelled (UGS). RU advancing towards Bogatyr (WarGonzo); fighting for Oleksiivka (N of Kostiantynopil); fighting near Volne Pole/Vesele/S of Rozlyv (Rybar).
• Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia): Moderate intensity. 4 attacks repelled (UGS & SDF). RU claims capture of Lobkove, success near Shcherbaky/Stepove (Rybar); advancing near Kamenske; repelled UA counterattack near Lobkove (WarGonzo). RU sources repeat claim of eliminating UA "International Legion" Sgt. V. Kucheruk via FPV drone (Poddubny / RVvoenkor). RU fundraising indicates equipment needs.
• Prydniprovsky Axis (Kherson - Left Bank): Low intensity ground assaults. 2 attacks repelled (UGS & SDF).

III. Other Noteworthy Information

• Ukrainian Retaliation/Training: 63rd Mechanized Brigade released video showing retaliatory strikes (GRAD, Arty, Mortars, Drones) against Russian forces, explicitly stating "this is for Kryvyi Rih" (Vilkul). UGS released photos of OUV "Tavria" tank crew training. Video released showing training of 18-24 year old recruits, emphasizing intensive training and adaptation (Operativnyi ZSU/StratCom).
• Russian Capabilities/Issues: Persistent RU crowdfunding appeals highlight equipment needs (vehicles, comms, armor). RU sources detail systemic issues within RU Air Defense (command rigidity, EW integration, accountability, morale). RU sources discuss tactical medicine protocols (pain management - Dva Mayora). RU sources discuss internal social tensions regarding perceived anti-Caucasus sentiment online (Alex Parker Returns).
• Information Environment: UA OGP investigating Kyiv attack as war crime. RU sources frame Kyiv/Sumy strikes as targeting military/industrial facilities. RU sources amplify narratives alleging UA atrocities on Kursk border. Polish advisor warns US (potential Trump admin) against agreeing to Russian control over occupied territories in any future negotiations (RBC-Ukraina). Kotsnews compilation mentions Politico report on UA allegedly offering mineral access to Trump team (previously noted).
• Personnel: RU sources repeat claim of eliminating UA "International Legion" Sgt. V. Kucheruk (former 8th SSO Rgt) on Zaporizhzhia axis.
• Logistics/Fundraising: UA fundraising appeals continue for various units (vehicles, drones, thermal imagers, Starlink, equipment for SSO) (Shtirlits).