Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 6, 2025, 04:30 UTC
I. Overall Strategic Situation & Major Developments
Intense Overnight Air Assault: Russia conducted a large-scale combined air attack utilizing cruise missiles (Kh-101, Kalibr), ballistic missiles (Iskander-M/KN-23), and attack drones (Shahed/Gerbera types) targeting multiple regions, primarily Kyiv/agglomeration, Uman district (Cherkasy Oblast), and Starokostiantyniv (Khmelnytskyi Oblast).
Kyiv Attack Aftermath: Significant ballistic missile impact occurred overnight, causing damage and casualties. Emergency response operations are ongoing.
Casualties:At least 3 civilians injured (2 hospitalized) in Darnytskyi district.
Damage: Fires confirmed in non-residential areas/buildings in Darnytskyi, Obolonskyi, and Solomianskyi districts. Partial collapse of a 5-story business center reported in Obolonskyi following a fire. A furniture workshop fire spread to a warehouse in Obolonskyi. Non-residential building fire, separate building destruction + 3 cars ignited in Darnytskyi. Open territory fire and warehouse facade fire (extinguished) in Solomianskyi. 8 vehicles damaged in Darnytskyi. Falling debris confirmed in Obolonskyi. Visual confirmation of large crater in Obolonskyi.
Kupyansk KAB Strike: A Russian Guided Air Bomb (KAB) struck a 9-story residential building, causing significant damage and casualties.
Damage: Impact on 9th floor caused fire across balconies (2nd-7th floors) and four apartments (100 sq m area). Partial damage to the struck building and window damage in three adjacent apartment buildings.
Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH. Intense ground fighting persists, particularly on the Pokrovsk, Lyman, Toretsk, and Kursk/Sumy border directions. UGS previously reported 152 combat engagements (as of Apr 5, 19:00 UTC).
Russian Offensive Focus: Pokrovsk axis remains the main effort. Significant pressure continues on Lyman, Toretsk, and Kursk/Sumy border axes. RU sources continue to claim advances near Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Lyman, and within Kursk Oblast. RU forces maintain presence in Ukrainian border settlements in Kursk Oblast and conduct cross-border attacks into Sumy Oblast. Fighting continues near Popovka and Demidovka in the Belgorod border area.
Ukrainian Defensive Operations: Successfully engaged ballistic missiles over Kyiv. Engaged cruise missile wave (currently subsided). Active defense continues along the frontlines. Active use of FPV drones, counter-battery fire, and fortifications. Monitoring persistent KAB threats.
Reporting Note: A prominent UA OSINT channel (Nikolaevskiy Vanyok) stated temporary suspension of publishing interception/shoot-down reports due to concerns about accuracy of ground-level reporting processes, pending potential improvements within UA Air Force structure.
Partisan Activity Claim: Ukrainian partisan group "ATESH" claims responsibility for destroying a railway transformer cabinet near Kemerovo, Russia, allegedly disrupting ammunition transport.
Information Warfare: RU sources frame missile strikes as retaliation for alleged Ukrainian breaches of energy infrastructure agreements. RU sources continue claims of advances and high UA losses. Ukrainian sources highlight civilian casualties from RU strikes (Kyiv, Kupyansk, Kryvyi Rih).
Regional/Allied Posture: Polish and Allied military aviation were active over Poland during the Russian long-range aviation strikes on Ukraine.
II. Air, Missile & Drone Activity (Updated)
Active Threats (as of 04:30 UTC):
Air Alerts:ENDED across Ukraine (Kyiv ended ~04:04 UTC, Zaporizhzhia ~04:12 UTC, General ~04:24 UTC).
Guided Air Bombs (KABs): Threat persists for frontline oblasts. Repeat launches towards Zaporizhzhia Oblast confirmed (~03:39 UTC). Strike confirmed on residential building in Kupyansk (~03:05 UTC).
Tactical Aviation Threat: Persists for frontline areas. Previous threat alert for Kharkiv city/district.
Resolved Threats (Overnight Apr 5-6):
Ballistic Missile Attack: Intense multi-wave attack on Kyiv (~01:57-02:15 UTC, potentially later waves per war_monitor analysis ~05:00-05:15 UTC) from Bryansk/Voronezh Oblasts. PPO engaged. Confirmed impacts, damage, and 3 injuries (see Section I). Threat subsided.
Cruise Missile Attack: Launched by ~4 Tu-95MS bombers (Kh-101, likely from Caspian Sea) and potentially naval assets (Kalibr, from Novorossiysk area). Missiles tracked across Ukraine, targeting Kyiv, Uman district (Cherkasy) (~03:04-03:11 UTC), and potentially Starokostiantyniv. Missiles were no longer actively tracked after ~03:21 UTC (per Nikolaevskiy Vanyok; war_monitor suggests later activity ~05:38-06:20 UTC). Threat concluded.
Shahed/Gerbera Drone Attack: Concluded (~04:12 UTC per war_monitor analysis). Active overnight.
Recent Impacts / Aftermath:
Kyiv City:Major Ballistic Missile Attack Aftermath. Confirmed damage to non-residential buildings (including partial collapse of business center), fires, vehicle damage, debris falls, and 3 civilians injured (2 hospitalized) across Darnytskyi, Obolonskyi, Solomianskyi districts.
Kupyansk (Kharkiv Oblast):KAB strike on 9-story residential building. Confirmed fire, structural damage, and 2 civilians injured.
Uman District (Cherkasy Oblast): Was under direct cruise missile attack (~03:04-03:11 UTC). Impact details remain unclear.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Targeted by repeat KAB launches. OVA reports 449 total RU strikes (Air, UAV, MLRS, Arty) on 9 settlements in the past 24 hours; 1 house damaged, no civilian casualties reported from these specific strikes.
Ukrainian Air Defence: Actively engaged ballistic and cruise missiles overnight, particularly over Kyiv. Monitoring ongoing KAB threats.
Russian Air Defence Claims: RU MoD claims 11 UA UAVs intercepted/destroyed over 3 RU regions overnight.
Ukrainian Strike Activity (Previous): Confirmed deep strikes on Saransk and Chapayevsk, Russia (Apr 4-5). Active tactical drone operations along the front.
III. Key Frontline Developments (Highlights from Recent Reports/Claims)
Kursk/Sumy Border Area: High intensity fighting continues. RU forces maintain presence in UA border settlements (Kursk Oblast) and conduct cross-border attacks. RU MoD continues claims of high UA losses and advances. Previous KAB launches towards Sumy.
Belgorod/Kharkiv Border Area: Fighting persists near Popovka and Demidovka (Belgorod Oblast). RU sources claim successful strikes (incl. on Bradley IFV) near Demidovka. Active tactical aviation threat previously noted for Kharkiv city/district. RU claims UA deployed new young recruits to Lyptsi direction.
Kupyansk Axis:Confirmed KAB strike on residential building in Kupyansk city (2 injured). RU sources (TASS/Marochko) claim advances along a >35km front. ISW previously reported UA advance near Kupyansk.
Lyman Axis: High intensity. RU claims expanding control near Makiivka/Ivanivka/Nove. DeepState previously reported RU advance near Novoliubivka.
Siversk Axis: Moderate intensity.
Kramatorsk Axis (incl. Chasiv Yar): Relatively lower ground assault intensity reported recently. RU sources assess Ukraine highly motivated to hold Chasiv Yar due to strategic heights. Frontline reported as largely static.
Toretsk Axis: High intensity. ISW reported RU advance near Toretsk; DeepState reported RU advance within the city. RU sources (Dva Mayora) indicate recent RU focus shifted south, claiming capture of Aleksandropol and Panteleimonivka with fighting near Tarasivka and Zelene Pole.
Pokrovsk Axis:Highest Intensity. ISW reports RU advance near Pokrovsk. RU sources (Dva Mayora) report fighting in Lysovka. Previous RU claims persist regarding advances towards Novoolexandrivka, west of Troitske, and near Bohdanivka.
Novopavlivsk / South Donetsk Axis: Moderate intensity. Fighting reported near Volne Pole, Vesele, Razliv (RU sources). RU claim FPV strike on UA tent/personnel. Previous reports of large RU assaults being repelled.
Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia): Moderate intensity ground clashes. Repeat KAB launches towards Zaporizhzhia Oblast. High volume of RU shelling/drone attacks reported by OVA across multiple settlements. RU sources claim capture of Lobkove and attacks near Kamyanske.
Prydniprovsky Axis (Kherson - Left Bank): Low intensity ground assaults reported repelled. RU sources claim increased FAB strikes by Russian Aerospace Forces in the area.
IV. Naval Situation (Black Sea / Azov Sea / Mediterranean)
(No significant changes reported since Apr 4 assessment)
Black Sea / Azov Sea: No Russian warships reported deployed (as of Apr 4 AM).
Kryvyi Rih Attack Aftermath (Apr 4): Confirmed 19 civilians KIA (incl. 9 children), 72 WIA (incl. 11 children) from combined Iskander-M (cluster) and Shahed strike. Rescue operations concluded. RU sources maintain claims of hitting military targets, refuted by UA sources.
RU Claim (Requires Verification): TASS (citing underground sources via expert Kiselev) alleges German police conducting street checks on Ukrainian citizens' legal status in Germany.
