Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 5, 2025, 11:00 UTC
I. Overall Strategic Situation & Key Developments
Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH across frontlines. Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) reported 145 combat engagements in the 24 hours preceding 08:00 UTC Apr 5. Russian offensive pressure is most significant on the Lyman, Pokrovsk, South Donetsk, and Toretsk axes.
Russian Tactics & Capabilities:
Heavy reliance on aviation (107 strikes, 171 KABs reported past 24h by UGS), kamikaze drones (92 Shahed-type launched overnight Apr 4-5, 2737 total UAVs reported past 24h by UGS), and artillery/MLRS fire (6353 shelling attacks, 105 MLRS reported past 24h by UGS).
Continued adaptation of counter-drone tactics and deployment of specialized drone munitions:
Fiber-optic guided drones ("Knyaz Vandal Novgorodsky" by "Tigers" UAV unit) used in ground ambush tactics on the Sumy border (Sudzha-Yunakivka road).
RU sources ("Arkhangel Spetsnaza") claim destruction of alleged UA "Baba Yaga" hexacopter via FPV drone intercept (Apr 5).
RU sources claim UA hexacopter carrying mines disguised with dry grass downed near Hornostaivka, Kherson Oblast (Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 5).
Anecdotal report (via UA source Butusov Plus citing RU channels) of RU soldier successfully hitting incoming UA FPV drone with a rock (Apr 5).
RU sources ("NgP raZVedka") report drone strikes ("radical bakers") targeting UA trenches on the Artemovsk (Bakhmut) direction (Apr 5).
RU sources claim destruction of a UA drone signal amplifier in Orikhiv (Apr 5).
RU sources ("Sparta" Bn, 51st CAA) claim destruction of UA Kozak armored vehicle and 3 other vehicles via FPV drones, impacting UA logistics/mobility (Location unspecified, likely Pokrovsk axis, Apr 5).
Assessment (via UA Cmdr Pinchuk, 130th Bn): Russian forces demonstrate a willingness to accept high personnel/equipment losses for territorial gains.
RU sources (Slivochniy Kapriz) assess average daily RU advance rate in SVO zone (excl. Kursk) was 8.3 km² in March 2025.
RU MoD reports award ceremony for 18th Motorised Rifle Division (Sever Group) for actions in Kursk border area (Apr 5).
Anecdotal RU claim (Voin DV) of RU tanker (Yakutia) winning hand-to-hand combat and capturing UA soldier after tank hit mine (Location unspecified, Apr 5).
Over 77,000 Russian targets reportedly hit/destroyed by drones in March 2025 (10% increase from Feb) (Syrskyi via RBC-Ukraina, Apr 5).
Fiber-optic guided drones with 20km range are operational on frontlines.
Approx. 1,000 Russian reconnaissance UAVs neutralized in the past month (Air Defence & interceptor drones) (Syrskyi via RBC-Ukraina, Apr 5).
Ongoing implementation of new EW systems, significant increase in deployed short-range EW assets (Input from "Ptakhy Madyara", 3rd Assault Bde).
UA Units (RUBPaK 118 ObTrO SPEAR Group B) report successful drone strikes targeting RU infantry, utilizing thermal imaging (Apr 5).
UA 39th Brigade reports drone strikes on RU targets (structure, personnel, vehicle, trench) on the Left Bank, Kherson Oblast, citing retaliation for Kryvyi Rih (Apr 5).
UA 93rd Brigade "Black Raven" unit reports successful drone strikes destroying RU equipment and personnel (Operativnyi ZSU, Apr 5).
UA "Kryla Omega" unit reports destruction of RU tank; notes FPV drone initially stopped by netting, but subsequent heavier drone strike succeeded (Operativnyi ZSU, Apr 5).
Saransk, Mordovia: Confirmed strike on "Optical Fiber Systems" plant (АТ «Оптиковолоконные Системы» - reportedly sole RU producer, crucial for military comms/drone control) at 54.2250389, 45.1958203.
Follow-up Attempt (Apr 5 Morning): RU/UA sources report further attempted UAV strike (light-aircraft based), fell on plant territory but failed to detonate. RU sources claim lack of local air defence. RU sources (Старше Эдды) criticize disparity in regional air defence capabilities enabling such long-range strikes.
Chapayevsk, Samara Oblast: Confirmed fire at "Promsintez" explosives plant (previously targeted).
Donetsk City (Occupied): RU sources claim massive UA long-range UAV attack overnight; 28 UAVs claimed destroyed by RU AD.
Russian Claims (Energy Infrastructure):
RU MoD claims 14 UA attacks targeted Russian energy facilities in the 24 hours preceding Apr 5 AM (TASS, Apr 5).
Claimed affected locations: Bryansk, Belgorod, Smolensk, Lipetsk, Kherson (occupied part), and Voronezh Oblasts, as well as occupied LNR (TASS/RVvoenkor/Colonelcassad, Apr 5). Specific impacts claimed by RU sources (Colonelcassad, Apr 5) include:
Bryansk Oblast (Apr 4-5): Hits/damage/outages reported at substations/lines near Ivanovkа, Klimovo, Novy Ropsk, Pogar, Sluchevsk, Lemeshovka, Churovichi.
Belgorod Oblast (Apr 4-5): Hits/damage/outages reported at substations/lines near Krasnaya Yaruga, Dorogoshch, Nechayevka, Komsomolsky.
Smolensk Oblast (Apr 4): UAV attack caused outage on 500kV line "Smolensk NPP – Kaluzhskaya".
Lipetsk Oblast (Apr 4): UAV attack caused outage on 6kV line near Novonikolayevka.
Occupied LNR (Apr 4): UAV attack damaged gas distribution station "Kremenna".
Occupied Kherson Oblast (Apr 5): Two UAV attacks damaged 150kV substation "Vinogradovo".
Voronezh Oblast (Apr 5): UAV attack damaged/caused outage on 110kV line "Ostrogozhsk-Rayonnaya – ANP".
RU MoD alleges Kyiv "significantly increased" attacks on RU energy infra since morning Apr 4, despite alleged commitments by Zelenskyy (TASS, Apr 5).
Russian Claims (Other):
RU claims (Rogov/TASS) RU Geran drone destroyed an explosives production facility for UA forces in Zaporizhzhia city (Apr 5).
Alleged UA UAV strikes targeted infrastructure in Tambov Oblast.
RU MoD claims 77 Ukrainian UAVs destroyed overnight Apr 4-5 across multiple RU regions and occupied territories (DNR-28, Voronezh-16, Belgorod-14, Kursk-6, Samara-6, Mordovia-3, Bryansk-1, Lipetsk-1, Oryol-1, Penza-1).
Air Defence & Air Threats (Apr 5 Morning/Midday):
Ukrainian Air Defence (Night Apr 4-5): UA Air Force reported 92 Shahed-type UAVs launched by Russia. 51 shot down; 31 "locationally lost". Targets in Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, Kyiv, Zhytomyr Oblasts.
Ongoing Threats (as of 11:00 UTC):
RU reconnaissance UAV activity reported in Kharkiv Oblast; potential target designation for strikes; UA interception assets engaged (UA Air Force, 11:00 UTC).
Ballistic missile threat alert ended at 10:16 UTC (UA Air Force).
Previous KAB launches towards Donetsk Oblast (08:52 UTC). Air threat warning for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (08:50 UTC). KAB launches towards Sumy Oblast and Sumy/Kharkiv border (08:11, 08:29 UTC).
Russian Resource Constraints & Logistics: Ongoing public fundraising appeals indicate continued reliance on volunteer support. Head of State Construction Supervision, MoD RF (Yuri Kozhevnikov) arrested for corruption (Apr 5), potential minor impact on MoD efficiency. Reports of disruptions to Alfa-Bank services in Russia (Apr 5). RU sources (Dnevnik Desantnika) claim RU blockade of sea ports impacting UA logistics (weapon/fuel delivery) on Kherson direction.
Counter-Intelligence / Internal Security:
SBU Success (Kaminske): SBU reported detaining an alleged Russian agent preparing an IED detonation in Kaminske (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast).
GUR Rescue Operation: GUR successfully evacuated Ukrainian teacher Natalia Shylo from Russian-occupied territory.
International Support/Dynamics:
High-level meeting (France, UK Chiefs of Defence Staff) in Kyiv discussed continued support, military transformation, post-ceasefire security guarantees.
NATO SecGen Rutte stated NATO not participating in current US/Ukraine/Russia-led peace talks, has no "red lines" (Tsaplienko/Sources, Apr 5). Finnish President Stubb stated Western troop discussion only post-conflict. Finnish FM Valtonen reportedly stated 'Russia is not our enemy' (Janus Putkonen citing Yle, Apr 5 - Requires verification, potentially RU Info Op).
US Ambassador Brink condemned Kryvyi Rih strike (Apr 5); President Zelenskyy criticized US Embassy response for lacking explicit attribution to Russia, stressed need for more air defense (Patriots) (Zelenskiy / Official, RBC-Ukraina Apr 5).
Reports of alleged dispute between US Treasury official Bessant and President Zelenskyy over leaked minerals deal proposal; Zelenskyy previously ordered investigation into leak (Operatsiya Z/Sources, Apr 5). SBU investigation confirmed, polygraph tests conducted on officials from several ministries (FT via RBC-Ukraina, Apr 5).
Reuters Report (via RU/UA sources): Alleged GRU plot involving explosive devices hidden in packages (cosmetics, sex toys) sent to UK, Germany, Poland last summer. Four detained in Poland in October. Aimed to cause explosions, potentially on aircraft, with ultimate targets in US/Canada. Reaffirmed Apr 5 (Operatsiya Z / RVvoenkor via Reuters).
Unconfirmed RU source report claims Germany secretly funded non-Starlink satellite comms for Ukraine for ~1 year.
Poland facilitated delivery of 5,000 Starlink terminals (Apr 3). Denmark approved €900M aid package (2025-2027). Germany provided €130M package. Lithuania delivered 6 AD systems. Latvia sending 1500 UAVs.
RU sources claim NATO exercise Dacian Spring 25 (Romania, May) postponed to autumn due to poor road conditions (Apr 5).
Ukrainian Resource Needs & Morale: Public fundraising appeal for 24th Aidar Bn, 72nd Mech Bde, SSO units continues. Highlighted need for FPV drones (3,370 requested for 95 units, Apr 3). UA units (UDA "Dnipro Shturmhevery", National Guard "Chervona Kalyna", 39th Bde, 93rd Bde) express strong retaliatory motivation following Kryvyi Rih attack, conducting operations in the East and Kherson Oblast (Apr 5).
Information Warfare:
RU sources claim UA shelling/mistreatment of civilians/soldiers (Kursk, Kurakhove, Kryvyi Rih), circulate derogatory polls and videos alleging forced mobilization (Colonelcassad, Apr 5). RU sources claim mass looting by Sumy residents in Kursk Oblast during UA incursion (Apr 5). RU sources claim interview with civilian from Kazachya Loknya (Kursk) alleging mistreatment by UA soldiers in March (Apr 5).
RU source (Kotenok) claims Kyiv regime may use WMD or stage nuclear infrastructure attacks (Apr 5).
RU source (Alex Parker) claims spotting new UA tactical sign (two arrows) on Kupyansk direction, alleging UA preparations for Kharkiv offensive (Apr 5).
RU sources claim possession of intercepted UA documents on transport aviation structure/vulnerabilities (likely propaganda).
RU sources claim deliberate UA drone attacks targeted civilians in Kurakhove (Donetsk Oblast) while under UA control (TASS, Apr 3).
Finnish/RU source (Janus Putkonen) circulates narrative of widespread drug use within UA forces, alleging CIA involvement (Apr 5).
UA Prosecutor General reports 616 children killed, 1863 injured since full-scale invasion (Apr 5).
UA sources (BUTUSOV PLUS) released video showing alleged deceased RU soldiers in poor conditions (Apr 5), highlighting RU losses.
UA source (Tsaplienko, Apr 5) refutes RU claims of hitting Magellan restaurant in Kryvyi Rih, providing photo evidence showing the building intact.
Personnel & Training:
UA General Staff reports 9th graduation ceremony for military chaplains trained at Taras Shevchenko National University Military Institute.
II. Major Incident: Kryvyi Rih Combined Attacks (Apr 4) - UPDATED
Casualties (Consolidated Reports, Apr 5 - Rescue Ops Concluded): President Zelenskyy reports 19 Killed (incl. 9 children), 62 Wounded (incl. 12 children). Dnipropetrovsk ODA Head Lysak reports 72 wounded, almost half hospitalized, 17 in serious condition. (Note slight discrepancy in wounded figures between sources). Days of Mourning declared Apr 7-9. Ongoing memorials reported at the site (Apr 5). Specific victim identified: Radyslav Yatsko (7yo), killed in family car; father hospitalized, mother/infant sister injured at home, grandmother hospitalized (Tsaplienko, Apr 5).
Sequence & Weapons:
Afternoon Iskander-M with cluster munition (launched from Taganrog) hit residential district/playground (UGS/Vilkul/Zelenskyy). No military targets present (Vilkul).
Evening/Night mass Shahed drone attack targeted the city, striking during rescue operations (Zelenskyy).
Damage: Extensive damage to ~34 multi-story residential buildings, 6 educational facilities, private houses, playgrounds, businesses, infrastructure. Clean-up/support/aid distribution efforts ongoing.
Russian Information Warfare: Persistent denial/disputing civilian casualties, claims of hitting military targets (e.g., Magellan restaurant meeting), questioning presence of military personnel near impact site. UA sources (Tsaplienko) actively refute specific RU claims with visual evidence.
III. Key Frontline Developments
Lyman Axis:Highest Intensity.39 Russian attacks reported (UGS, past 24h). Assaults focused towards Novomykhailivka, Katerynivka, Hrekivka, Olhivka, Novoserhiivka, Nove, Nadiia.
RU Claims (Apr 5 - Rybar/Dva Mayora): Expanded control N/W of Makiivka near Zherebets River; fierce fighting near Vishneve; RU forces captured strongpoints near Ivanivka, approaching Nove from the south; RU forces took Novoliubivka and surrounding strongpoints; Cleared territory W of Zherebets River near Nevske, fighting near Katerynivka. Positional fighting near Mirne (Dzerzhynske) and Yampolivka. RU objective assessed as push towards Borova.
RU Claims (Apr 5): Tactical successes near Udachne. Continued UA counter-attacks in Shevchenko (heavy UA losses claimed); RU claim expanding control N of Shevchenko by 500m. RU claim identifying UA reserves E of Kotlino and striking them. RU "Sparta" Bn claims destroying UA Kozak armored vehicle and 3 other vehicles via FPV drones in this general area of operations.
UA National Police "Lyut" Brigade (Luhansk Regt.) unit encountered mines during rotation near Toretsk, became cut off, but successfully exfiltrated despite shelling/wounds (Tsaplienko, Apr 5).
South Donetsk / Novopavlivsk Axis: Increased RU offensive pressure and claimed advances.
RU Claims (Colonelcassad/don_partizan, Apr 5):
RU forces advanced up to 2 km from Andriivka (south of Kurakhove) towards Oleksiivka, consolidating positions on eastern outskirts.
RU forces advanced over 1.5 km deep and up to 1 km wide near Bohatyr.
Stabilization measures completed in Vesele; RU assault operations initiated towards Fedorivka.
RU forces expanded zone of control by 200 meters near Burlatske towards Shevchenko.
RU MoD/Sources claim destruction of UA T-64 tank near Bohatyr (Voin DV, Apr 5).
Kherson Axis:
RU Claims (Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 5): RU forces repelling attempted UA landings across the Dnipro, claiming ~80% destruction of landing groups on water. Claim RU blockade of sea ports impacting UA logistics. Claimed downing of UA hexacopter with disguised mines near Hornostaivka.
